甘肃马铃薯种植布局对区域气候变化的响应

基于甘肃省地面气象观测站1961—2008年气象观测资料和马铃薯生长条件,选择最佳小网格推算模型推算出500m×500m的高分辨率的网格序列;确立马铃薯种植适宜性气候区划指标,结合地理信息资料,运用GIS技术,开展马铃薯种植适宜性动态气候区划。结果表明:气候变化使马铃薯最适宜区和适宜区面积分别减小35%和3%,次适宜区和可种植区面积分别扩大18.5%和6.6%,不适宜区面积缩小2.0%。提出了马铃薯应对气候变化建议:各地应根据气候特点,调整作物布局;适当调整播种日期,躲避影响马铃薯产量的春霜冻、块茎形成期的高温危害及伏期干旱等;采取多种农业措施,扩大马铃薯种植面积,提高复种指数。预计随着未来气候进一步变暖,该地区的马铃薯生长发育、产量和结构布局将会继续受到影响,研究成果可为甘肃马铃薯生产以及适应气候变化提供科学参考依据。     

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2

Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high‐resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.     

Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria

The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in north‐eastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8 °C from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels of CO₂ concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO₂ effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.     

Comparison of climate change impacts on the growth of C3 and C4 crops in China

Global agricultural production has been significantly affected by climate change. As a large but also weak agricultural country, China must take corresponding adaptation measures in regard to climate change. As C3 and C4 crops have different carbon sequestration pathways, the responses of their growth to climate change are different. This study comprehensively compared the impacts of climate change on the growth of C3 and C4 crops in China by considering several key variables, such as solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, CO₂ concentration, and agro–climatic constraints. The WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies) model was used to quantitatively simulate and analyze the impacts of these variables on crop yield under four different scenarios. The results show that 1) during the growth period, solar radiation had the most significant change, followed by temperature difference between day and night, daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature, and precipitation; 2) the growth indicators of both C3 and C4 crops were more strongly correlated with solar radiation and temperature; and 3) under the four scenarios, changes in temperature and solar radiation had negative effects on both C3 and C4 crops in most regions, and changes in CO₂ concentration had greater impacts on crop yields than other factors. This study revealed the temporal and spatial patterns of crop growth indicators under different climate change scenarios in the past 30 years, which provides a scientific basis for exploring how to adapt to climate change and provide higher levels of crop productivity in China.     

气候变化对大豆影响的研究进展

工业革命以来,全球大气中CO₂等温室气体浓度急剧升高,导致全球气温升高和降水格局发生变化.大气CO₂ 浓度升高、全球变暖、水分状况的变化将对大豆的生长发育、产量、品质等产生影响,未来气候变化下大豆生产将发生很大变化.大豆是世界及我国重要的粮食和油料作物之一,未来气候变化下大豆生产的变化将会影响全球粮油安全.本文从大气CO₂浓度升高、温度升高、水分胁迫三方面综述了气候变化对大豆影响的研究,并对未来的相关研究做了展望,为了解未来大豆的生产情况以及制定应对气候变化对大豆生产影响的相关政策提供依据.     

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat‐growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO₂ emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat‐growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.     

中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施

东北、华北和西北50a来的平均气温增幅高于全国平均水平,气候变暖明显,尤其冬季增温最显著。区域增暖的极端最低气温远比极端最高气温的贡献大。东北、华北大部、西北东部降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少20—40mm,尤其春夏季减少最明显。这种趋势一直延续到20世纪90年代以后,干旱化趋势非常突出。在综述我国北方现代气候变化基本特征是暖干化的基础上,重点阐述了喜凉作物冬小麦、春小麦、马铃薯和喜温作物水稻、玉米、谷子、糜子等7种主要粮食作物的生长发育、品种熟性、种植区域与面积、产量与品质等对气候暖干化的响应特征。揭示了气候暖干化使春播作物播期提早,苗期生长发育速度加快,营养生长期提前,生殖生长期和全生育期延长;秋作物发育期推迟,生殖生长期和全生长期延长;越冬作物播期推迟,越冬死亡率降低,种植风险减少,春初提前返青,生殖生长期提早,全生育期缩短。使作物适宜种植区域向高纬度高海拔扩展;品种熟性向偏中晚熟高产品种发展;喜温作物和越冬作物以及冷凉气候区的作物种植面积迅速扩大;在旱作区种植不较耐旱的玉米、春小麦等作物种植面积受到制约。对雨养农业区的作物气候产量影响严重,尤其对不够耐旱的小麦和玉米的气候产量受影响最大;对较耐旱的谷子、糜子、马铃薯等影响较轻。从作物属性而言,对喜温作物水稻、玉米和越冬作物冬小麦有利于气候产量提高;对喜凉作物春小麦和马铃薯的气候产量将产生不利影响。同时,提出了从5个方面应对气候暖干化的技术措施,调整作物种植结构,确保粮食生产安全;根据不同气候年型调整各种作物种植比例;针对不同气候区域发展优势作物和配置作物种植格局;采取不同栽培技术和管理模式应对气候变化;采取综合配套技术提髙抵御灾害能力。为粮食作物安全生产和种植结构调整与布局提供科学依据。     

甘肃旱作大豆全膜双垄种植的土壤水热及产量效应

以晋豆23为材料,在甘肃省农业科学院镇原试验站进行田间试验,研究了全膜双垄沟播(FMRFC)、覆膜沟播(FMFC)、覆膜条播(FMSC)和露地条播(NMSC,CK)4个处理的水热及产量效应.结果表明: 在大豆生育期降水量为246.3 mm(干旱年)和407 mm(丰水年)两种年型下,各覆盖处理0～20 cm土层平均地温在24 h内呈“S”型变化,并随生育进程波动振幅缩小.各覆盖处理使大豆苗期(VE～V3)至鼓粒期(R6)0～20 cm土层平均土壤温度显著提高0.5～2.5 ℃,并使全生育期平均地温提高1.3～1.6 ℃.各覆盖处理分别加速了大豆植株对0～120 cm土层土壤水分的消耗,但使0～200 cm土层的平均含水量和贮水量分别提高了1.2%～1.4%和62.7～70.3 mm.与CK相比,FMRFC和FMFC在旱年增温增湿作用显著,改善了大豆株高、分枝数、单株荚数和百粒重等经济性状,使水分利用效率分别提高47.7%～56.3%和33.3%～35.4%,产量分别提高27.7%～51.1%和10.2%～25.2%,是旱作大豆优选的抗寒抗旱覆盖种植方式.     

Impact of climate warming on crop planting and production in Northwest China

One major challenge in agro-meteorological research is to accurately predict the impacts of global climate warming on future agricultural production. So the effects of climate warming over the past decades need to be assessed. We analyzed the effects of climate warming on crop planting, structure and yield in 5 northwestern provinces of China with a focus on Gansu Province, utilizing accumulated temperature (≥ 10°C, AT), accumulated negative temperature (< 0°C, ANT) and crop data collected from 1981 to 2003. The analysis led to the following conclusions: 1) climate warming is the main driving force for the expansion of winter wheat toward the north and the west in China, for the rapid increase in cotton planting acreage, and for the expansion of annually multi-crop areas toward the north in China and higher altitude; 2) Climate warming is the direct cause for early seeding of spring crops, prolonged growth duration for thermophilic crops and shortened growth duration for overwinter crops; 3) Climate warming is largely attributed to the dramatic increase in cotton yield.     

近20年气候变暖对东北水稻生育期和产量的影响

为探究近20年气候变暖对东北地区水稻生育期和产量的影响,利用东北三省近20年水稻生育期、产量数据和气候观测数据,采用数理统计等方法进行分析.结果表明: 1989-2009年东北三省水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈上升趋势,降水量均呈下降趋势.与1990s相比,2000s黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省水稻全生育期分别延长了14、4.5和5.1 d.东北地区5、6和9月温度升高可延长水稻全生育期,而7月温度升高则缩短生育期.除黑龙江省外,东北地区的审定品种和观测站点水稻生育期均呈相似的变化趋势,审定品种生育期的延长是导致观测站点水稻生育期延长的主要原因.东北地区日平均温度、最低温度和最高温度的变化均会影响水稻产量,温度上升对黑龙江省的增产效应较明显,尤其是三江平原以西地区.除辽宁省南部以外,其他地区升温均表现为增产.东北地区可以采取育种、栽培和耕作等措施充分挖掘水稻适应气候变暖的能力.
     

Understandings and future challenges in soybean functional genomics and molecular breeding

Soybean(Glycine max) is a major source of plant protein and oil.Soybean breeding has benefited from advances in functional genomics.In particular,the release of soybean reference genomes has advanced our understanding of soybean adaptation to soil nutrient deficiencies,the molecular mechanism of symbiotic nitrogen(N) fixation,biotic and abiotic stress tolerance,and the roles of flowering time in regional adaptation,plant architecture,and seed yield and quality.Nevertheless,many challenges remain...     

区域种植业气候适宜度及其对种植活动的响应——以四川省盐亭县为例

在分析盐亭县近63年来(1950—2012)种植业生产发展的基础上,选取该县农村社会经济条件相对稳定的近32年(1981—2012)为研究时段。运用农业生态气候适宜度方法,依据水稻、红薯、玉米、小麦和油菜等5种主要作物生育期的光、热、水等气候条件,分别估算各种作物的资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数,构建小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度模型和种植活动对区域种植业气候适宜度的影响度模型,进行小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度以及种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度估算,并对种植业生产对气候变化的适应进行探讨。研究结果表明,(1)近32年来盐亭县大春作物的平均资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数(分别为0.578、0.281和48.37%)均大于小春作物(分别为0.304、0.128和42.24%),大春作物的气候适宜度高于小春作物,且作物间的气候适宜度差异较大。(2)受季风气候波动的影响,该县作物气候适宜度有明显的年际波动;该县近32年来气候变化对大春作物气候适宜度有轻微不利影响,而对小春作物气候适宜度趋于有利。(3)盐亭县近32年来种植业平均的资源适宜指数为0.466、效能适宜指数为0.212、利用指数为45.49%;受5种作物资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数,以及作物播种面积与产量年际波动的综合影响,该县种植业气候适宜度亦有明显的年际波动;气候变化对该县种植业气候适宜度总体上有不利影响。(4)近32年来该县种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度平均值为0.00092,其年际波动较大。通过作物种植组合结构的调整,在20世纪90年代中期前对种植业气候适宜度的提高有微弱的正向影响,对气候变化有一定程度的适应;而后期则有负向作用。     

中国富士苹果种植气候适宜区的年代际变化

苹果是中国种植面积最大的水果,分析气候变化背景下其种植气候适宜区的年代际变化,可为合理利用气候资源、科学应对气候变化提供参考。基于中国主栽的富士苹果地理分布信息和1961—2010年中国区域2084个气象台站资料,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件,通过构建富士苹果种植分布与气候因子的关系模型,分析1961—2010年中国富士苹果种植分布的年代际变化特征及其对气候变化响应的敏感区。结果表明,气候变化导致中国富士苹果种植分布的气候界限和气候适宜区明显北移,其中气候适宜区范围伴有西扩趋势。富士苹果种植的各气候适宜区分布年代际变化特征明显,适宜气候种植面积显著增加,特别是1990s变化最为突出,2010s气候种植适宜面积较1960s增加36%。但高气候适宜区面积则呈年代际波动,2010s虽略高于1960s,但较1970s—1980s减少25%。富士苹果种植适宜区对气候变化响应最为敏感的地区主要分布在辽宁南部、鲁南、苏北、豫东南、黄土高原西北部和川陕接壤区。除热量条件外,年日照时数对富士苹果种植的气候适宜区面积影响显著,气候资源变化有助于富士苹果种植的气候适宜范围增加,但不利于高气候适宜区的稳定。     

Differential effects of diurnal asymmetric and symmetric warming on yield and water utilization of soybean

Aims Global warming does not mean similar warmer temperatures between daytime and nighttime. Soybean (Glycine max) is a widely planted legume crop around the world and an important food crop in China. The aim of this study was to understand the responses of soybean growth and water utilization to future asymmetric warming, which would provide scientific reference for evaluating the adaptation of soybean to the future climate scenarios.Methods This experiment was carried out in artificial climate chambers, using the method of potted plants, under three temperature conditions; contrast (CON, 26 °C during the day and 16 °C during night), symmetric warming (ETs, elevated temperature of 3 °C both during the day and night), asymmetric warming (ETa, elevated temperature of 2 °C during the day and elevated temperature of 4 °C during night). We investigated the differential effects of diurnal asymmetric and symmetric warming on the yield and water consumption of soybean. Important findings The results revealed that, under the background of 26 °C during the day and 16 °C during night: 1) the effect of ETs on soybean yields showed no significant function that mainly benefit from the increase in the amount of biomass to ease negative influence of decrease in the harvest index. ETa reduced yields of soybean by 38.9% (p < 0.05) due to both significant decrease in harvest index and yield components (pod number per plant, grain number per pod and 100-grain weight). 2) ETs showed no obvious effect on the whole growing stage evapotranspiration (ET) of soybean, while ETa reduced the whole growing stage ET by 14.8% (p < 0.05). 3) The effect of the two warming pattern on water consumption of soybean were not significant. The difference in water consumption was mainly derived from the difference in transpiration (T). ETs and ETa reduced total transpiration by 10.7% (p < 0.05) and 26.1% (p < 0.05), respectively. In conclusion, our results suggest that ETs will underestimate the detrimental effects of real climate warming (ETa) on the growth and yield of soybean, and overestimate the effects on water consumption of soybean.     

昼夜不对称性与对称性升温对大豆产量和水分利用的影响

全球气候变暖并不是白天和夜间的平均变暖, 而是呈现一定的不对称性。大豆(Glycine max)是世界范围内种植较广泛的豆科作物, 也是中国重要的粮食作物。研究大豆的生长与水分利用对不对称性气候变暖的响应, 可为预测未来气候变暖情景下大豆的适应提供科学的参考依据。该实验在人工气候箱中采用盆栽方式进行, 设立对照(CON, 昼26 ℃夜16 ℃)、对称性升温(ETs, 昼夜均升高3 ℃)和不对称性升温(ETa, 昼升高2 ℃, 夜升高4 ℃)三个温度情景, 研究了大豆产量和水分利用对昼夜不对称性与对称性升温的差异性响应。结果表明: 在昼/夜26 ℃/16 ℃的背景下, 1) ETs对大豆产量影响不显著, 主要是因为生物量的增加缓解了收获指数下降对大豆的不利影响; ETa使大豆产量减少38.9%, 是由于大豆的收获指数和产量构成要素(荚数、粒数、百粒重)均显著降低。2) ETs对大豆全生育期蒸散量(ET)的影响不显著, ETa使大豆整个生育期ET减少14.8%。3)两种升温模式对大豆耗水量中蒸发量的影响都不显著, 耗水量的差异主要来自蒸腾量的差异, 其中ETs和ETa分别使大豆全生育期蒸腾量降低10.7%和26.1%。综上所述, 只针对ETs进行研究, 而没有对ETa进行研究的实验会低估真正的气候变暖情景(ETa)对大豆生长和产量的不利影响, 高估其对大豆耗水量的影响。     

Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?

There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options – planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice – using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near‐ and long‐term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid‐December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010–2039 and 2040–2069 and by 20% for 2070–2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070–2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was nonlinear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future, improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change.     

基于结构方程模型的高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化感知研究——以甘南高原为例

农户对气候变化的感知是其适应行动选择的基础,弄清楚影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素,辨明农户气候变化感知的形成机制,对制定有效的适应策略至关重要。以甘南高原为研究区,基于539份入户调查数据,构建了路径模型,分析了影响农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素及其作用路径,结果发现:(1)客观适应能力对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响;(2)气候变化信息对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,它还通过客观适应能力间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知;(3)社会话语信任度对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,适应激励对农牧户的气候变化适应感知有显著的正向影响,但对风险感知产生显著的负向影响,同时,社会话语信任度及适应激励均通过气候变化信息及客观适应能力而间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知。最后,基于影响甘南高原农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素,提出了提高农牧户的气候变化认知水平及气候变化适应行为有效性的对策建议。     

新疆地区发展大豆生产的可行性和初步建议

大豆(Glycine max)是重要的粮油作物。近年来, 我国大豆需求量和进口量不断增加。扩大种植面积和提高单产是增加大豆总产量的主要途径, 西北地区尤其是新疆在扩大大豆种植面积和提高单产方面具有一定的潜力。该文从新疆大豆生产的自然气候条件、大豆在新疆的种植情况及新疆发展大豆生产的优势和局限性等方面分析了新疆地区发展大豆生产的可行性; 并围绕大豆生产政策扶持、机械化水平提升、加快科技创新培育优良品种和加强大豆生产示范等措施, 提出新疆发展大豆生产的初步建议。     

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES‐Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO₂ and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO₂ enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO₂ elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (?22.1% and ?35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES‐Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system.     

Testing the responses of four wheat crop models to heat stress at anthesis and grain filling

Higher temperatures caused by future climate change will bring more frequent heat stress events and pose an increasing risk to global wheat production. Crop models have been widely used to simulate future crop productivity but are rarely tested with observed heat stress experimental datasets. Four wheat models (DSSAT‐CERES‐Wheat, DSSAT‐Nwheat, APSIM‐Wheat, and WheatGrow) were evaluated with 4 years of environment‐controlled phytotron experimental datasets with two wheat cultivars under heat stress at anthesis and grain filling stages. Heat stress at anthesis reduced observed grain numbers per unit area and individual grain size, while heat stress during grain filling mainly decreased the size of the individual grains. The observed impact of heat stress on grain filling duration, total aboveground biomass, grain yield, and grain protein concentration (GPC) varied depending on cultivar and accumulated heat stress. For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30–0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37–0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0–1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30. The tested crop simulation models could reproduce some of the observed reductions in grain filling duration, final total aboveground biomass, and grain yield, as well as the observed increase in GPC due to heat stress. Most of the crop models tended to reproduce heat stress impacts better during grain filling than at anthesis. Some of the tested models require improvements in the response to heat stress during grain filling, but all models need improvements in simulating heat stress effects on grain set during anthesis. The observed significant genetic variability in the response of wheat to heat stress needs to be considered through cultivar parameters in future simulation studies.