Prognosis of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with the renal syndrome in the Primorsk region]

A study was made of a possibility of prognostication of the number of patients (morbidity per 100 000 residents) with hemorrhagic fever with the renal syndrome in conditions of the Primorsk region. The main factors characterizing this disease were analyzed with the use of the "Minsk-22" computer; these were dynamics of the populations of murine rodents, metereological data, morbidity. A method of prognostication of the number of patients (morbidity) with hemorrhagic fever and a renal syndrome in the Primorsk region for the current year was elaborated.     

The determination of hepatitis A antibodies in epidemiological practice

Epidemiological analysis of hepatitis A morbidity in a city with the population of 500,000 persons in 1960-1987 was carried out. Three periods of morbidity rises among children aged 3-6 years and 7-14 years and living at the same areas (microdistricts) were established. Blood sera from healthy children were tested for the presence of antibodies to hepatitis A in enzyme immunoassay. The data on the sanitary and bacteriological study of tap water were analyzed. Unsatisfactory results of water analysis in different microdistricts correlated with the presence of antibodies in the population of these microregions and with the average morbidity indices for many years.     

Nosogeography of viral hepatitis in the Ukraine over the last 25 years (1952-1976)]

For 25 years of observation the morbidity rate of viral hepatitis in the Ukraine was irregular. In individual regions the morbidity level fluctuated within 2 to 3-fold range. Regions with invariably high or low morbidity levels for viral hepatitis were distributed over the territory of the republic not chaotically, but in zones: a zone with invariably high morbidity rate (western), a zone with morbidity rate corresponding to the average level for the republic (south-western), and a zone with an invariably low morbidity rate (north-eastern). The expediency of dividing the territory into epidemiological areas in respect of viral hepatitis on a regional or republican level is discussed.     

Long-term dynamics and prognosis for tularemia and pseudotuberculosis morbidity in the Iaroslavl region

The trends and main factors influencing the fluctuations of the levels of tularemia and pseudotuberculosis morbidity in the Iaroslavl region were revealed by the methods of mathematical statistics (regress analysis, time-series analysis, etc.). Tularemia morbidity was 0.467 +/- 0.216 cases (1950-1997) and pseudotuberculosis morbidity was 0.979 +/- 0.297 cases (1979-1997) per 100,000 of the population. The multiple regression equations permitting the prognostication of tularemia and pseudotuberculosis morbidity in the Iaroslvl region were derived.     

Quantitative research on the cyclic fluctuations of the epidemic process in a number of infectious diseases in Bulgaria

The cyclic nature of the epidemic process in Bulgaria was studied by various methods (spectral analysis, etc.), forming a system. The morbidity dynamics in 10 infectious diseases (scarlet fever, rubella, measles, epidemic parotitis, whooping cough, diphtheria, typhoid fever, enterocolitis, bacterial dysentery, viral hepatitis) over the years of 1909-1983 were studied and cycles covering the periods of 3-4, 5-6, 10-11 and over 16 years were established. The data on the relative part of cyclic processes in the registered morbidity of infectious diseases, as well as information on the prognostication of the spread of infections in the absence of vaccinal prophylaxis, are presented.     

Dynamics of viral hepatitis A morbidity in Minsk

The results of the analysis of hepatitis A morbidity during the period of 1996 - 2001, are presented. The cyclic character of this morbidity in its dynamics over the period of several years was noted with the maximum morbidity level reached in 2000. The monthly dynamics of hepatitis A morbidity reflected its seasonal character with the maximum increase in autumn and winter. The virological control of drinking water revealed its contamination in spring and summer, with no subsequent rise in morbidity. The control of sewage reflected the emergence of the virus in the city collector in accordance with the increased morbidity.     

Epidemiology of viral hepatitis in the Estonian SSR

The epidemiological peculiarities of viral hepatitis in the Estonial SSR as a whole, as well as in Tallinn and in the surrounding Harju region were studied. The study revealed that during the last 10 years the total decrease of morbidity in viral hepatitis was observed due to a decrease in infectious hepatitis, pronounced periodic and seasonal morbidity fluctuations being absent. A sharp decrease in infectious hepatitis morbidity had been achieved by carrying out planned gamma globulin prophylaxis among children. Viral hepatitis morbidity in the republic was determined by the adult population and manifested as sporadic cases of infectious and serum hepatitis. Infectious hepatitis was transmitted mainly through every day contacts, while the leading factor in the transmission of serum hepatitis consisted in various injections. The relatively high morbidity level of serum hepatitis was mainly determined by morbidity in large cities.     

Problems of the epidemiology of viral hepatitis in Ryazan Province

The analysis of some features of the course of the epidemic process of viral hepatitis on the territory of the Ryazan region is presented. Periodic rises and falls in viral hepatitis morbidity, varying in their regularity (4-6 years), have been registered in the region. The general level and the seasonal distribution of viral hepatitis morbidity are determined by the morbidity rate among children, the increase in the proportion of children of senior school age being observed in recent years.     

Rabies prognosis in western Siberia and the regulatory factors of the epizootic process

In this article the regulatory factors of the epizootic process are considered and the spatial-temporal prognostication of rabies infection in the region is proposed on the basis of data on rabies morbidity among animals, the purchase of skins of carnivorous animals for 20-25 years, virological experiments on wild animals, calculation of the number of carnivores and small mammals, as meteorological observations. The study has shown that a variety of animal species serving as hosts for the virus and its population differences contribute to the stable existence of the infection. Rabies morbidity has been found to be positively linked with its preceding level, the number of wild animals, the height and hardness of the snow cover and negatively with the number of small mammals.     

Prophylaxis against hepatitis A for travel.

OBJECTIVE--To develop a rational practice policy for prophylaxis against hepatitis A for travellers to high risk areas. DESIGN--18 Month prospective study of consecutive patients who requested prophylaxis against hepatitis A. SETTING--Inner city general practice. SUBJECTS--104 Patients aged 15-61 (mean 30) assessed for risk factors for hepatitis A and put into groups depending on predictions from the risk factors of their immunity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS--All patients were screened for antibody to hepatitis A virus. Of 52 patients with no risk factors 47 had no antibody and were thus susceptible to hepatitis A. All 27 patients with major risk factors (having been brought up in an endemic area or with a history of jaundice) were immune. Of 25 patients with minor risk factors (a history of previous travel in high risk areas, drug abuse, having lived in a squat or travelled rough, or having lived with someone who had jaundice) 12 were immune (p less than 0.001, chi 2 test). CONCLUSIONS--All travellers requesting prophylaxis against hepatitis A should be assessed for risk factors for previous exposure to hepatitis A. Those with no risk factors could be immunised with human normal immunoglobulin without screening. The remainder should be tested for hepatitis A antibody and those found to be susceptible should be immunised.     

Immune stratum of the population in relation to the causative agent of pseudotuberculosis

The state of population immunity may be controlled by analyses of placental, abortion, and donor blood. The existence of a high direct correlation between the level of the immune stratum of the population and pseudotuberculosis morbidity has been revealed. Regression equations suitable for the prognostication of pseudotuberculosis morbidity have been obtained by means of computers.     

Morbidity and mortality in acute viral hepatitides in a hyperendemic region. The role of viral hepatitis E

Official annual statistical data on morbidity in acute viral hepatitides (AVH), including the number of lethal cases, for 1985-1995 were analyzed. Mortality rates per 100,000 of the population at the period of 11 years were calculated for different age groups, sex and the place of residence. 396 and 99 patients were examined for the presence of serological markers of hepatitides A, B and E, respectively, at the periods of epidemic rises in morbidity and satisfactory epidemic situation. In the course of 11 years AVH caused the death of 22,405 persons. In 1985-1987 the average mortality level (ML) reached 12.3-17.8 per 100,000 of the population (with morbidity being 1,200-1,400 and was essentially higher among the rural population in comparison with the urban population. During these years the highest ML, was registered among children aged 0-2 years (190-50 per 100,000) and, among adults, mainly among women aged 20-29 years (21.4-19.6 per 100,000). During the years when the epidemic of AVH was absent, ML among these groups was essentially lower: 40-20 among children aged 0-2 years and 4-5 among women aged 20-29 years. In 1987 in the Fergana Valley hepatitis E was detected in 72.2% of all examined patients, and in the southern areas of the country in 68.7%. A sharp rise on mortality among women of the productive age at the period of the epidemic rise of AVH morbidity in the endemic region indicated that this epidemic was linked with hepatitis E. High ML among young children may be indicative of a highly unfavorable course of hepatitis E in the group of infants, which had never been registered before. This newly established regularity may be used for the retrospective diagnostics of the outbreak of hepatitis E.     

Methodological bases for the study and the patterns of the seasonality of viral hepatitis A

On the basis of the study of the data on the incidence of viral hepatitis A in one of the districts of a big city for 20 years the authors come to the conclusion on the advisability of a comparative study of the monthly changes in the incidence of hepatitis A within individual uniform morbidity cycles covering the periods of many years and the use of average monthly data for many years for plotting the typical curve, as well as the use of the simplified for the calculation of the upper limit of annual morbidity. Similarities and differences in the monthly dynamics of morbidity in the years of high and low morbidity levels have been revealed, and the age group of the population (20-39 years) which ensures the continuity of the epidemic process all the year round has been determined. The factors contributing to the seasonal activation of the epidemic process start operating in June among schoolchildren aged 11-14 years, and later their operation spreads to other groups of the population.     

Prognosis of typhoid morbidity in a region of northern new construction projects

The mathematical model describing the dependence of typhoid fever morbidity on water supply and the migration of the population has been constructed. The checking of the model has shown the 95% coincidence of the predicted and actual morbidity. The model has been used for the prognostication of morbidity rate in typhoid fever in new economic development regions, thus making it possible to plan in advance the measures necessary for the prevention of negative consequences connected with the realization of economic development projects.     

Spread of hepatitis virus as a threat to national security

Information on viral hepatitis A, B and C morbidity in Russia is presented. A distinct trend to decreased viral hepatitis B and C morbidity in 2001-2002 in comparison with the 1990-ies is noted. Nevertheless, there is still unfavorable prognosis regarding high hepatitis B morbidity among the population of reproductive age, as well as among adolescents, which increases the risk for children at an early age. In addition, a new specific feature of hepatitis A spread is observed: morbidity in this infection is shifted to older age groups. The role of vaccinal prophylaxis in the decrease of hepatitis A and B morbidity, virus safety of blood and its components, the quality of the diagnostics of chronic hepatitis, especially hepatitis C, are discussed. The complex of measures for the prophylaxis of viral hepatitis is proposed.     

新疆阿克苏地区绵羊戊型肝炎血清流行病学调查

对新疆阿克苏地区8县1市7个品种的490份绵羊血清,采用双抗原夹心酶联免疫法检测抗戊型肝炎病毒抗体,比较不同行政区、不同品种及不同年龄段绵羊戊型肝炎病毒抗体阳性率的差异。结果显示,所检测血清总的抗体阳性率为28.98%(142/490)、8县1市的戊型肝炎病毒绵羊抗体阳性率依次为35.44%(28/79)、29.67%(27/91)、20%(4/20)、40%(12/30)、32.5%(26/80)、38%(19/50)、22.5%(9/40)、8%(4/50)、26%(13/50),其中,沙雅县与各行政区之间差异极显著(P0.01);2岁以上绵羊与1岁以下绵羊抗体阳性率依次为38.75%(31/80)和15.45%(17/110),差异极显著(P0.01);不同品种绵羊呈现不同程度的阳性率,其中,蒙古羊与各品种之间差异极显著(P0.01)。由此可见,阿克苏地区所检测绵羊普遍存在HEV既往感染和潜在感染的可能性。     

Clinico-epidemiologic characteristics of infectious hepatitis in a populated area where hepatitis had not been reported for a long time

The analysis of the clinico-epidemiological characteristic of infectious hepatitis in a populated area in the Kashkadarya region of the Uzbek SSR, where the cases of infectious hepatitis were not formerly registered for a long time, is presented. The epidemic process was found to take and intensive course with the formation of a large number of foci with 2 or more patients, an in the age groups of 20-29, 40 years and older a comparatively high morbidity rate, exceeding that among the total population 2-3 times, was registered. A low proportion of patients under 14 years (21.1%) was probably due to the planned preventive gamma globulin immunization carried out in this area.     

Clinically conditional variants of the immune response in viral hepatitis A and B in children

The immunity characteristics of the T-, B- and A-systems have been studied on the basis of the data registered in the dynamics of the acute period of the disease and several times in catamnesis during 6-12 months of the convalescence period in 217 children with viral hepatitis A and 99 children with viral hepatitis B. The clinical course of viral hepatitis A and that of viral hepatitis B have been found to have certain parallels in their development, as well as specific features of immune response, which can be subdivided into 3 main groups: (a) immunological imbalance, (b) the phase of immunodepression and (c) secondary immunodeficiency. The distinguishing of the variants of immune response and their clinical interpretation are of practical importance for the early prognostication of the course and outcome of the processes and for the differentiated approach to the treatment of viral hepatitides in children.     

Family incidence of type B hepatitis

Family incidence of HBsAg-positive viral hepatitis was confirmed to be high. In 499 families with a type B viral hepatitis patient, type B viral hepatitis morbidity among 1116 contacts amounted to 2.24% within 6 months of the primary patients' hospitalization (being 188.2 times higher than semiannual morbidity of the population of the Czech Socialist Republic, CSR) and the prevalence of HBsAg amounted to 8.96% (being 22.4 times higher than among the population of CSR). On deducting positive findings at first blood samplings, which at least partially eliminated individuals who could themselves have been the source of infection for the first patient in each family, the rate for contact cases equalled 0.70% (58.8 times higher morbidity than among the population) and the rate for HBsAg prevalence equalled 2.50% (6.25 times higher than among the population). Among 917 members of 335 families where a case of HBsAg-negative viral hepatitis occured, 0.32% developed HBsAg-positive viral hepatitis within 6 months (26.8 times higher morbidity than population morbidity) and the HBsAg prevalence was 2.94% (7.35 greater than among the population). On deducting the first positive findings no clinical illness remained and HBsAg prevalence equalle 0.98% (2.45 times higher than among the population). The highest HBsAg prevalence was found among contacts aged 0-5 years (17.09% for the whole period, 3.41% after deducting first positive findings) and 40 years and over (10.82% and 3.39%, respectively). Type B viral hepatitis morbidity was again highest in the age groups of 0-5 years (5.12%) and 40 years and over (2.54%) for the whole period. On deducting first positive findings, the 40+ years group displayed the highest morbidity (1.27%), whereas the 0-5 years group displayed zero morbidity. Disclosure of the mechanisms of nonparenteral or inapparently parenteral transmission specific for family environments would be important for the prospect of introducing adequate measures to limit or prevent the spread of type B viral hepatitis.     

The cyclicity and prognosis of shigellosis morbidity in Russia

The epidemic process (EP) of shigellosis morbidity proceeds in cycles. As shown in this study, cyclic curves are the sum of polyharmonic fluctuations, being the axis of EP. The duration of one cycle is 18 years, and its configuration is stably retained for a long time. In Nizhny Novgorod shigellosis morbidity is strongly correlated with air temperature is summer at the peak of cyclic rises and moderately correlated in the years of low morbidity. In some cities of the Russian Federation fluctuations of air temperature have been found of occur synchronously with disturbances of the magnetic field of the earth. The character and stability of EP cycles provide grounds for the prognostication of shigellosis morbidity. The current cycle will end in the year 2000, and then natural preconditions for a new cyclic rise will appear.