Trends in deliberate self poisoning and self injury in Oxford, 1976-90.

OBJECTIVE--To review trends in deliberate self poisoning and self injury (attempted suicide) over 15 years (1976-90) on the basis of general hospital referrals. DESIGN--Prospective data collection by computerised monitoring system. SETTING--Teaching general hospital. SUBJECTS--All patients aged 15 and over (n = 9605) referred to the hospital after episodes (n = 13,340) of deliberate self poisoning or self injury. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Rates based on population of Oxford city; changes in substances used for self poisoning; history and repetition of attempts; and rates of admission to the hospital and of referral to the psychiatric service. RESULTS--Attempted suicide rates for women declined during the late 1970s and early 1980s but increased again during the late 1980s. Those for men remained relatively steady throughout the period. Highest mean annual rates occurred in women aged 15-19 (711/100,000) and in 20-34 year old men (334/100,000). The proportion of overdoses with paracetamol increased from 14.3% (125/873) in 1976 to 42% (365/869) in 1990 (chi 2 for trend = 481, p less than 0.01). Throughout the period the proportions of referred patients admitted to hospital and of those attempting suicide for the first time (over two thirds) did not decrease. Annual rates of repetition of attempts by women declined from 15.1% (257/1700) in 1976-8 to 11.9% (161/1356) in 1987-9 (chi 2 for trend = 7.8, p less than 0.01). Lower repetition rates occurred in women admitted to hospital and referred to the psychiatric service (431/4585, 9.4%) than in those not referred (42/235, 17.9%; chi 2 = 17.2, p less than 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS--Rates of attempted suicide declined in the 1970s and early 1980s, in women, but there are probably at least 100,000 hospital referrals a year in England and Wales because of this problem. Prevention of paracetamol self poisoning requires urgent attention, and psychosocial assessment should be conducted with as many of those who attempt suicide as possible.     

The population impact on incidence of suicide and non-fatal self harm of regulatory action against the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in under 18s in the United Kingdom: ecological study

Objective To investigate the population impact on the incidence of suicide and non-fatal self harm of regulatory action in 2003 to restrict the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in under 18s.Design Ecological time series study.Setting United Kingdom.Populations Young people in the UK aged 12-19 years (prescribing trends), in England and Wales aged 12-17 years (mortality), and in England aged 12-17 years (hospital admissions).Main outcome measures Deaths from suicide and hospital admissions for self harm.Results Antidepressant prescribing doubled between 1999 and 2003 but fell to the 1999 level between 2004 and 2005. These large changes in prescribing did not seem to be associated with temporal trends in suicide or self harm. In the years 1993 to 2005 the annual percentage reduction for suicide among 12-17 year olds was −3.9% (95% confidence interval −6.2% to −1.5%) in males and −3.0% (−6.6% to 0.6%) in females, with no indication of a substantial change in this rate of decrease during that period. Similarly, hospital admission rates for self harm in the years 1999 to 2005 indicated an annual percentage increase for males of 1.1% (−0.5% to 2.7%) and for females of 5.7% (3.6% to 7.8%), again with no statistical evidence of a change in rate after the regulatory action.Conclusions The noticeable reduction in prescribing of antidepressants since regulatory action in 2003 to restrict the use of SSRIs in under 18s does not seem to have been associated with changes in suicidal behaviour in young people. Specifically, these data for England do not indicate that reductions in antidepressant use have led to an increase in suicidal behaviour.     

A divergent pattern of the sex difference in life expectancy: Sweden and Japan, early 1970s-late 1990s

For most of the 20th century the sex gap in life expectancy in the industrialized countries has widened in favor of women. By the early 1980s a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential had occurred in some countries, where it reached a maximum and thereafter followed a declining trend. Of particular interest to the present investigation is the anomalous experience of Japan, where unlike other high-income countries the female advantage in life expectancy has been expanding. We contrast the case of Japan with that of Sweden, where, like many other high-income nations, the sex differential in longevity has been narrowing in recent years. We observe that in Sweden, until the early 1980s, the sex gap in life expectancy (female-male) exceeded that of Japan; but this situation reversed in subsequent periods, when the Swedish differential narrowed and that of Japan widened. A decomposition analysis indicates that these divergent patterns since 1980 have resulted mainly from larger than expected reductions in male mortality in Sweden due to heart disease and from accidents and violence, lung cancer and "other" cancers. In Japan, death rates for men and women from heart disease--which is a leading cause of death--have tended to decline more or less at the same pace since the early 1980s; and with regard to lung cancer, and "other" neoplasms, male death rates in Japan have been rising while those of women have either declined or risen more slowly. Moreover, during the 1990s, male and female suicide rates rose in Japan, but the rates for men went up faster. Altogether, the net effect of these divergent mortality trends for men and women in Japan underlie much of the observed widening of its sex differential in longevity in recent years.     

Trends in suicide and unemployment in Scotland, 1976-86.

To establish whether a correlation exists between unemployment and suicide the trends in the rates of both among men in Scotland during 1976-86 were studied. Both rates showed rapid increases in the late 1970s and then much slower increases after 1982. In contrast, among women, although the rate of unemployment followed a similar pattern, there was a gradual fall in the rate of suicide. The trends in regional unemployment for men during 1971-81 were compared with the suicide rates for the period before the increase (1974-7) and the period after the rapid increase (1983-6). No association was observed between trends in suicide and unemployment when analysed by health board areas or aggregates of local government districts. These data do not support the hypothesis that the rise in unemployment is a direct cause of the rise in suicide rates among men.     

Mental health of unemployed men in different parts of England and Wales.

In a study of mental health among unemployed men two contrasting hypotheses about the importance of the local unemployment rate were examined--namely, that very high local unemployment might be associated with either impoverishment or resilience of the community, which would affect health in opposite ways. The mental health of 954 unemployed men registered at 41 unemployment benefit offices in England and Wales was assessed by the general health questionnaire, men in areas of particularly high unemployment being compared with men in areas of moderate and relatively low unemployment. Scores for ill health were significantly lower in areas of particularly high unemployment, even when personal factors known to affect mental health during unemployment were controlled for. These results support the hypothesis that communities with high rates of unemployment develop resilience that is beneficial for the mental health of the unemployed.     

Suicide among Arab-Americans

Background

Arab-American (AA) populations in the US are exposed to discrimination and acculturative stress—two factors that have been associated with higher suicide risk. However, prior work suggests that socially oriented norms and behaviors, which characterize recent immigrant ethnic groups, may be protective against suicide risk. Here we explored suicide rates and their determinants among AAs in Michigan, the state with the largest proportion of AAs in the US.

Methodology/Principal Findings

ICD-9/10 underlying cause of death codes were used to identify suicide deaths from among all deaths in Michigan between 1990 and 2007. Data from the 2000 U.S. Census were collected for population denominators. Age-adjusted suicide rates among AAs and non-ethnic whites were calculated by gender using the direct method of standardization. We also stratified by residence inside or outside of Wayne County (WC), the county with the largest AA population in the state. Suicide rates were 25.10 per 100,000 per year among men and 6.40 per 100,000 per year among women in Michigan from 1990 to 2007. AA men had a 51% lower suicide rate and AA women had a 33% lower rate than non-ethnic white men and women, respectively. The suicide rate among AA men in WC was 29% lower than in all other counties, while the rate among AA women in WC was 20% lower than in all other counties. Among non-ethnic whites, the suicide rate in WC was higher compared to all other counties among both men (12%) and women (16%).

Conclusions/Significance

Suicide rates were higher among non-ethnic white men and women compared to AA men and women in both contexts. Arab ethnicity may protect against suicide in both sexes, but more so among men. Additionally, ethnic density may protect against suicide among Arab-Americans.     

The impact of unemployment on health: a review of the evidence.

OBJECTIVE: To review the scientific evidence supporting an association between unemployment and adverse health outcomes and to assess the evidence on the basis of the epidemiologic criteria for causation. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE was searched for all relevant articles with the use of the MeSH terms "unemployment," "employment," "job loss," "economy" and a range of mortality and morbidity outcomes. A secondary search was conducted for references from the primary search articles, review articles or published commentaries. Data and definitions of unemployment were drawn from Statistics Canada publications. STUDY SELECTION: Selection focused on articles published in the 1980s and 1990s. English-language reports of aggregate-level research (involving an entire population), such as time-series analyses, and studies of individual subjects, such as cross-sectional, case-control or cohort studies, were reviewed. In total, the authors reviewed 46 articles that described original studies. DATA EXTRACTION: Information was sought on the association (if any) between unemployment and health outcomes such as mortality rates, specific causes of death, incidence of physical and mental disorders and the use of health care services. Information was extracted on the nature of the association (positive or negative), measures of association (relative risk, odds ratio or standardized mortality ratio), and the direction of causation (whether unemployment caused ill health or vice versa). DATA SYNTHESIS: Most aggregate-level studies reported a positive association between national unemployment rates and rates of overall mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular disease and suicide. However, the relation between unemployment rates and motor-vehicle fatality rates may be inverse. Large, census-based cohort studies showed higher rates of overall mortality, death due to cardiovascular disease and suicide among unemployed men and women than among either employed people or the general population. Workers laid off because of factory closure have reported more symptoms and illnesses than employed people; some of these reports have been validated objectively. Unemployed people may be more likely than employed people to visit physicians, take medications or be admitted to general hospitals. A possible association between unemployment and rates of admission to psychiatric hospitals is complicated by other institutional and environmental factors. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluated on an epidemiologic basis, the evidence suggests a strong, positive association between unemployment and many adverse health outcomes. Whether unemployment causes these adverse outcomes is less straightforward, however, because there are likely many mediating and confounding factors, which may be social, economic or clinical. Many authors have suggested mechanisms of causation, but further research is needed to test these hypotheses.     

The decline of the otter Lutra lutra L. in Britain: an analysis of hunting records and discussion of causes

The records of one pack of Otter Hounds hunting in southwest England are examined for the period 1907 to 1971 as well as the records of all packs active in Britain between 1950 and 1976. The hunting success per unit effort varies from year to year depending on changes in hunting conditions but longer term changes can also be identified. The hunting success of the Culmstock Otter Hounds (hunting in parts of south-west England) increased steadily from 1907 to 1956 but in most of England and south Wales the success rate of the hunts declined rapidly after 1957. There was also a decline in success in northern England and southern Scotland but to a lesser extent, while in north Wales and Eire, there is no evidence for a decline.
These changes are considered to reflect changes in otter populations but the extent of the decline in hunting success (to between 37% and 55% of previous levels in the southern hunts) is probably less than the actual decline in otter numbers. There are no signs of a recovery in the population but indications of a continuing decline up to 1976.
The reason for the increasing population in the first half of the century in south-west England is probably the decrease in persecution since the nineteenth century. A variety of causes for the crash in the late 1950s are considered and the factor most likely to be responsible is the introduction of the dieldrin group of insecticides in 1956. Use of these compounds has been increasingly restricted since 1963 and the possible reasons for the failufe of the otter population to recover are listed but no firm conclusions can be drawn as yet.     

Has mortality from melanoma stopped rising in Australia? Analysis of trends between 1931 and 1994.

OBJECTIVE--To describe recent trends in mortality from melanoma in Australia. DESIGN--An analysis of trends in age standardised and age and sex specific mortalities by year of death and median year of birth (cohort). SETTING--Australia. SUBJECTS--All deaths from melanoma registered in Australia between 1931 and 1994. RESULTS--Melanoma mortality rose steadily from 1931 to 1985. From 1959 the annual rate of increase was 6.3% in men and 2.9% in women, resulting in mortalities of 4.82 and 2.51 per 100,000 person years in 1985 and 1989, respectively. Mortalities for both sexes seem to have plateaued from June 1985 onwards. In 1990-4 the rate rose by 3.7% in men to 5.00 per 100,000 and in women it fell by 5.2% to 2.38 per 100,000. The non-significant increase after 1985 in mortality in men was restricted to those aged over 70 years of age, whereas the fall in rates in women was mostly in those aged under 55 years. This pattern was generally reflected in the state trends, though with some variation: rates for women in Queensland had peaked in the late 1970s; while rates for men in New South Wales continued to rise in 1990-4, placing them above those for Queensland. Examination of mortalities specific for age, period, and cohort for Australia as a whole showed several salient features. Rates in men rose steeply in cohorts born before about 1930; were stable in cohorts born between 1930 and 1950; and fell in more recent cohorts. Rates in women showed similar changes but about five years earlier. CONCLUSION--Melanoma mortality in Australia peaked in about 1985 and has now plateaued. On the basis of trends in cohorts it can be expected to fall in coming years.     

Child Deaths Due to Injury in the Four UK Countries: A Time Trends Study from 1980 to 2010

Background

Injuries are an increasingly important cause of death in children worldwide, yet injury mortality is highly preventable. Determining patterns and trends in child injury mortality can identify groups at particularly high risk. We compare trends in child deaths due to injury in four UK countries, between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

We obtained information from death certificates on all deaths occurring between 1980 and 2010 in children aged 28 days to 18 years and resident in England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Injury deaths were defined by an external cause code recorded as the underlying cause of death. Injury mortality rates were analysed by type of injury, country of residence, age group, sex and time period.

Results

Child mortality due to injury has declined in all countries of the UK. England consistently experienced the lowest mortality rate throughout the study period. For children aged 10 to 18 years, differences between countries in mortality rates increased during the study period. Inter-country differences were largest for boys aged 10 to 18 years with mortality rate ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.16, 1.64) for Wales, 1.68 (1.48, 1.91) for Scotland and 1.81 (1.50, 2.18) for Northern Ireland compared with England (the baseline) in 2006–10. The decline in mortality due to injury was accounted for by a decline in unintentional injuries. For older children, no declines were observed for deaths caused by self-harm, by assault or from undetermined intent in any UK country.

Conclusion

Whilst child deaths from injury have declined in all four UK countries, substantial differences in mortality rates remain between countries, particularly for older boys. This group stands to gain most from policy interventions to reduce deaths from injury in children.     

The BTO Heronries Census of England and Wales 1928–2000: new indices and a comparison of analytical methods

A census of Grey Heron Ardea cinerea colonies has been made annually by volunteer observers in England and Wales since a first national survey in 1928. This data set has recently been thoroughly upgraded and here we apply a new method of indexing Heron population changes to produce a new 73-year time-series, the longest time-series describing the abundance of any breeding bird in the world. The indexing methodology is based on the use of weighted ratio estimators, as developed by G.E. Thomas, but with modifications that use reasonable assumptions regarding the likely rates of colony extinction and formation. There is little reliable information about such rates of site turnover, but the results were not sensitive to the assumptions made. The new analytical method, based on counts since 1964, suggests a population estimate of just over 9000 breeding pairs (95% CI 8529–9776) in England and Wales in the year 2000, some 2000 more than suggested in earlier publications. Only minor differences in trend are apparent over the course of the time-series between the new results and those previously published. Regional analysis suggests that the population in southern England and South Wales has remained relatively constant since the 1970s, but those in the North have tended to increase in the 1990s.     

Recent secular trends in dizygotic twinning rates in Europe

The author analyzes trends of declining maternal-age-specific dizygotic twinning rates in Europe for the period 1960-80. Using data from country publications on vital statistics, rates were available for most European countries; no useful data was, however, available for Albania, Romania, and Turkey. Dizygotic twinning rates declined for most countries tries through the 1970s, yet ceased their decline in the 1970s following initial drops in the 1960s were England and Wales, Scotland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Switzerland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. In the absence of concrete reasons for the observed twinning rates declines and subsequent decline cessation in several countries, the author hypothesizes potential causes. It is speculated that declining sperm quality over the period is related to the declines in European dizygotic twinning rates. Specifically, environmental pollution may have been at the root of deteriorating sperm quality, which in turn fueled the observed declines in dizygotic twinning rates. Cessation of the rate declines for selected countries in the 1970s may be related to the removal of certain polluting environmental agents from those countries. Forming 2 geographic European subregions, countries experiencing rate decline cessation or increase may have common elements to their environmental policy which foster the improvement of sperm quality. Examination of regulations regarding certain agents in these countries within a few years of 1970 may help identify agents responsible for dizygotic twinning rate trends in most European countries. The author also suggests that rate decline cessation may have stemmed from an increase in hormonally-induced twinning, counterbalancing the decline in natural twinning over the period.     

A varied pattern of change of the sex differential in survival in the G7 countries

Over the course of the 20th century the sex differential in life expectancy at birth in the industrialized countries has widened considerably in favour of women. Starting in the early 1970s, the beginning of a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential has been noted in some high-income countries. This study documents a sustained pattern of narrowing of this measure into the later part of the 1990s for six of the populations that comprise the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, England and Wales (as representative of the United Kingdom) and USA. For Japan, a persistence of widening sex differences in survival is noted. The sex differences in life expectancy are decomposed over roughly three decades (early 1970s to late 1990s) from the point of view of four major cause-of-death categories: circulatory diseases, cancers, accidents/violence/suicide, and 'other' (residual) causes. In the six countries where the sex gap has narrowed, this has resulted primarily from reduced sex differences in circulatory disease mortality, and secondarily from reduced differences in male and female death rates due to accidents, violence and suicide combined. In some of the countries sex differentials in cancer mortality have been converging lately, and this has also contributed to a narrowing of the difference in life expectancy. In Japan, males have been less successful in reducing their survival disadvantage in relation to Japanese women with regard to circulatory disease and cancer; and in the case of accidents/violence/suicide, male death rates increased during the 1990s. These trends explain the divergent pattern of the sex difference in life expectation in Japan as compared with the other G7 nations.     

Killing the competition

Sex- and age-specific rates of killing unrelated persons of one’s own sex were computed for Canada (1974–1983), England/Wales (1977–1986), Chicago (1965–1981), and Detroit (1972) from census information and data archives of all homicides known to police. Patterns in relation to sex and age were virtually identical among the four samples, although the rates varied enormously (from 3.7 per million citizens per annum in England/Wales to 216.3 in Detroit). Men’s marital status was related to the probability of committing a same-sex, nonrelative homicide, but age effects remained conspicuous when married and unmarried men were distinguished. These findings and the treatment of age and sex effects by criminologists are discussed in the light of contemporary evolutionary psychological models of sex differences and life-span development. Same-sex homicides in which killer and victim are unrelated can be interpreted as an assay of competitive conflict. In every human society for which relevant information exists, men kill one another vastly more often than do women. Lethal interpersonal competition is especially prevalent among young men, which accords with many other aspects of life-span development in suggesting that sexual selection has maximized male competitive prowess and inclination in young adulthood.     

Outlook for survivors of childhood in sub-Saharan Africa: adult mortality in Tanzania. Adult Morbidity and Mortality Project.

OBJECTIVE--To measure age and sex specific mortality in adults (15-59 years) in one urban and two rural areas of Tanzania. DESIGN--Reporting of all deaths occurring between 1 June 1992 and 31 May 1995. SETTING--Eight branches in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania''s largest city), 59 villages in Morogoro rural district (a poor rural area), and 47 villages in Hai district (a more prosperous rural area). SUBJECTS--40,304 adults in Dar es Salaam, 69,964 in Hai, 50,465 in Morogoro rural. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality and probability of death between 15 and 59 years of age (45Q15). RESULTS--During the three year observation period a total of 4929 deaths were recorded in adults aged 15-59 years in all areas. Crude mortalities ranged from 6.1/1000/year for women in Hai to 15.9/1000/year for men in Morogoro rural. Age specific mortalities were up to 43 times higher than rates in England and Wales. Rates were higher in men at all ages in the two rural areas except in the age group 25 to 29 years in Hai and 20 to 34 years in Morogoro rural. In Dar es Salaam rates in men were higher only in the 40 to 59 year age group. The probability of death before age 60 of a 15 year old man (45Q15) was 47% in Dar es Salaam, 37% in Hai, and 58% in Morogoro; for women these figures were 45%, 26%, and 48%, respectively. (The average 45Q15s for men and women in established market economies are 15% and 7%, respectively.) CONCLUSION--Survivors of childhood in Tanzania continue to show high rates of mortality throughout adult life. As the health of adults is essential for the wellbeing of young and old there is an urgent need to develop policies that deal with the causes of adult mortality.     

Trends in suicide in Scotland 1974-84: an increasing problem.

A detailed investigation of trends in suicide rates in Scotland from 1974 to 1984 showed a complex pattern. Overall rates for men increased by 40% with the greatest increases in those aged 45-64. In contrast, rates for women showed a small decline, which was most noticeable in those aged 15-24. The well recognised decline in poisoning by domestic gas was seen over this period, and suicide by this method virtually stopped. Both sexes showed a decline in suicide by poisoning with drugs, although the decrease was larger among women. The fall in suicide rates among young women was almost all due to the decrease in this method. The rise in rates for men was largely due to increases in hanging and poisoning with vehicle exhaust gases, although all methods except drugs and domestic gas showed some increase. These findings indicate that suicide is an increasing problem with causes that are far from understood, so that prevention may be difficult.     

Psychiatric Diagnoses and Risk of Suicidal Behaviour in Young Disability Pensioners: Prospective Cohort Studies of All 19-23 Year Olds in Sweden in 1995, 2000, and 2005, Respectively

Objective

Increasing rates of disability pension (DP) have been observed among young adults. We studied specific psychiatric DP diagnoses and subsequent risk of suicidal behaviour in a series of three cohorts of young adult in Sweden.

Method

In a nationwide register study, we included all young adults who in 1995, 2000, and 2005, respectively, were 19–23 years old and lived in Sweden (n≈500,000 per cohort). Rates of DP and specific psychiatric DP diagnoses were recorded in each cohort. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for suicidal behaviour during the following five years, with the corresponding age group as reference, were calculated by Cox proportional hazard regression, adjusted for demographic variables and previous own and parental suicidal behaviour.

Results

The overall proportion with DP in this age group increased from 0.92% in 1995 to 2.29% in 2005, with particularly large increases in psychiatric diagnoses such as hyperkinetic disorders, pervasive developmental disorders, and depression/anxiety. The overall proportion of young disability pensioners attempting suicide during the five-year follow-up increased from 2.21% in the 1995 cohort to 3.81% in the 2005 cohort. Within most psychiatric DP diagnoses, the risk of attempted suicide did not change significantly over time, whereas suicide attempts increased in the reference group. Accordingly, the HRs for suicide attempt decreased in some psychiatric DP diagnoses. The highest adjusted HRs were observed for depression/anxiety (16.41; CI: 9.06 to 29.74) and schizophrenia (9.37; 6.13 to 14.31) in the 1995 cohort. The rate of suicide among young disability pensioners during follow-up ranged from 0.19% in 1995 to 0.37% in 2005, mainly occurring in individuals with psychiatric diagnoses.

Conclusion

Suicidal behaviour has become more prevalent among young disability pensioners, which co-occurred with an increased tendency to grant DP in psychiatric diagnoses with a known high risk of suicidal behaviour. Preventive measures are warranted.     

Decline in rate of death from ischaemic heart disease in the United Kingdom.

The rates of death from ischaemic heart disease in the United Kingdom in the years after 1968 were studied to establish whether any general trend had occurred. A decline in the rates began after 1973-4, was greatest in those aged 35-44 years, and occurred among both men and women and in each of the regions of England and in Wales and Scotland. Total dietary fat intake had started to fall about five years earlier, and this may provide part of the explanation. Changes in smoking habits also occurred but were more difficult to relate to the pattern of change in the death rates. If a general decline in ischaemic heart disease has begun in the United Kingdom a case may be made for close monitoring of changes in lifestyle and medical practice in different demographic groups to try to find the explanation.     

Time trends and demography of mortality after fractured neck of femur in an English population, 1968-98: database study

Objectives To investigate time trends in mortality after admission to hospital for fractured neck of femur from 1968 to 1998, and to report on the effects of demographic factors on mortality.Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for fractured neck of femur, incorporating linkage to death certificates.Setting Four counties in southern England.Subjects 32 590 people aged 65 years or over admitted to hospital with fractured neck of femur between 1968 and 1998.Main outcome measures Case fatality rates at 30, 90, and 365 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission.Results Case fatality rates declined between the 1960s and the early 1980s, but there was no appreciable fall thereafter. They increased sharply with increasing age: for example, fatality rates at 30 days in 1984-98 increased from 4% in men aged 64-69 years to 31% in those aged ≥ 90. They were higher in men than women, and in social classes IV and V than in classes I and II. In the first month after fracture, standardised mortality ratios in women were 16 times higher, and those in men 12 times higher, than mortality in the same age group in the general population.Conclusions The high mortality rates, and the fact that they have not fallen over the past 20 years, reinforce the need for measures to prevent osteoporosis and falls and their consequences in elderly people. Whether post-fracture mortality has fallen to an irreducible minimum, or whether further decline is possible, is unclear.