Experiments link competition and climate change responses

Species interactions can have a larger impact on plant performance than direct effects of climate change itself, as shown by Rysavy et al. in this issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science. Their study illustrates different ways in which plant–plant interactions can change following climate change, stressing the need for experiments to disentangle direct and indirect impacts of climate change.     

Omega-3: a link between global climate change and human health

In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are essential nutrients for normal human growth and development and have many beneficial effects on human health. Thus, these detrimental effects of climate change on the oceans may reduce the availability of omega-3 PUFAs in our diets, exacerbating the modern deficiency of omega-3 PUFAs and imbalance of the tissue omega-6/omega-3 PUFA ratio, which have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease. This article provides new insight into the relationship between global climate change and human health by identifying omega-3 PUFA availability as a potentially important link, and proposes a biotechnological strategy for addressing the potential shortage of omega-3 PUFAs in human diets resulting from global climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on avian populations

This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate‐population processes, along with improved long‐term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best‐studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time‐lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate‐dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the ‘population robustness to climate change.’ The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC‐class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.     

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population‐level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype–environment association analysis, we identify potential climate‐adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.     

The ecological and evolutionary significance of frost in the context of climate change

The effects that below-freezing temperature (frost) can have at times of year when it is unusual are an interesting ecological phenomenon that has received little attention. The physiological consequence of formation of ice crystals in plant tissue is often death of the plants, or at least of sensitive parts that can include flower buds, ovaries, and leaves. The loss of potential for sexual reproduction can have long-lasting effects on the demography of annuals and long-lived perennials, because the short-term negative effects of frosts can result in longer-term benefits through lowered populations of seed predators. The loss of host plants can have dramatic consequences for herbivores, even causing local extinctions, and the loss of just flowers can also affect populations of seed predators and their parasitoids. Frosts can cause local extinctions and influence the geographical distribution of some species. The potential for global climate change to influence the frequency and distribution of frost events is uncertain, but it seems likely that they may become more frequent in some areas and less frequent in others.     

Bivalve aquaculture‐environment interactions in the context of climate change

Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom‐up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve–phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom‐up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top‐down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top‐down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present.     

Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules

Patterns of ecotypic variation constitute some of the few 'rules' known to modern biology. Here, we examine several well-known ecogeographical rules, especially those pertaining to body size in contemporary, historical and fossil taxa. We review the evidence showing that rules of geographical variation in response to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological changes through time in response to climate change. These rules hold at various time scales, ranging from contemporary to geological time scales. Patterns of body size variation in response to climate change at the individual species level may also be detected at the community level. The patterns underlying ecotypic variation are complex and highly context-dependent, reducing the 'predictive-power' of ecogeographical rules. This is especially true when considering the increasing impact of human activities on the environment. Nonetheless, ecogeographical rules may help interpret the likely influences of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change has already influenced the body size of several contemporary species, and will likely have an even greater impact on animal communities in the future. For this reason, we highlight and emphasise the importance of museum specimens and the continued need for documenting the earth's biological diversity.     

气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究进展

近百年来,全球气候系统正经历着以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化。研究海岸带系统对气候变化的响应机制,评估气候变化对海岸带社会、经济和生态的潜在影响,提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带系统安全的重要前提。回顾了IPCC的四次评估报告,分析了全球气候变化对海岸带的影响。总结了海岸带脆弱性评估框架以及脆弱性评价指标体系,综述了国内外气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究的进展。在综述国内外该领域研究进展的基础上,展望了气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究。全球气候变化及其对海岸带的影响还有大量的科学技术问题需要进一步探讨,同时也需要对各种适应气候变化措施的可行性和有效性进行研究和验证。     

Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations

Spring temperatures in temperate regions have increased over the past 20 years and many organisms have responded to this increase by advancing the timing of their growth and reproduction. However, not all populations show an advancement of phenology. Understanding why some populations advance and others do not will give us insight into the possible constraints and selection pressures on the advancement of phenology. By combining two decades of data on 24 populations of tits (Parus sp.) from six European countries, we show that the phenological response to large-scale changes in spring temperature varies across a species' range, even between populations situated close to each other. We show that this variation cannot be fully explained by variation in the temperature change during the pre- and post-laying periods, as recently suggested. Instead, we find evidence for a link between rising temperatures and the frequency of second broods, which results in complex shifts in the laying dates of first clutches. Our results emphasize the need to consider links between different life-history parameters in order to predict the ecological consequences of large-scale climate changes.     

An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines

Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host–parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool‐ and warm‐adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.     

An ecological 'footprint' of climate change

Recently, there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data, we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio-temporal resolution, covering a time span of more than 50 years. Our results reveal a coherent and synchronous shift in both species' distribution and climate. They show not only a shift in the northern margin of a species, which is in concert with gradually increasing winter temperatures in the area, they also confirm the simulated species' distribution changes expected from a bioclimatic model under the recent, relatively moderate climate change.     

Questioning the use of an amphibian colour morph as an indicator of climate change

The effects of recent climate changes on earth ecosystems are likely among the most important ecological concerns in human history. Good bioindicators are essential to properly assess the magnitude of these changes. In the last decades, studies have suggested that the morph proportion of the eastern red‐backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus), one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate species in forests of eastern North America, could be used as a proxy for monitoring climate changes. Based on new discoveries in the northern areas of the species' range and on one of the largest compilation ever made for a vertebrate in North America (236 109 observations compiled from 1880 to 2013 in 1148 localities), we demonstrate however that climatic and geographic variables do not influence the colour morph proportions in P. cinereus populations. Consequently, we show that the use of colour morph proportions of this species do not perform as an indicator of climate change. Our findings indicate that bioindicator paradigms can be significantly challenged by new ecological research and more representative databases.     

Vulnerable taxa of European Plecoptera (Insecta) in the context of climate change

We evaluated 516 species and/or subspecies of European stoneflies for vulnerability to climate change according to autoecological data. The variables considered were stream zonation preference, altitude preference, current preference, temperature range preference, endemism and rare species. Presence in ecoregions was used to analyse the vulnerability of taxa in relation to their distribution. We selected the variables that provided information on vulnerability to change in climate. Thus, we chose strictly crenal taxa, high-altitude taxa, rheobionts, cold stenotherm taxa, micro-endemic taxa and rare taxa. Our analysis showed that at least 324 taxa (62.79%) can be included in one or more categories of vulnerability to climate change. Of these, 43 taxa would be included in three or more vulnerability categories, representing the most threatened taxa. The most threatened species and the main factors affecting their distribution are discussed. Endangered potamal species, with populations that have decreased mainly as a consequence of habitat alteration, also could suffer from the effects of climate change. Thus, the total number of taxa at risk is particularly high. Not only are a great diversity of European stoneflies concentrated in the Alps, Pyrenees and Iberian Peninsula, but so are the most vulnerable taxa. These places are likely to be greatly affected by climate change according to climate models. In general, an impoverishment of European Plecoptera taxa will probably occur as a consequence of climate change, and only taxa with wide tolerance ranges will increase in abundance, resulting in lower overall faunal diversity.     

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population''s evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population''s evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population''s evolvability under rapid environmental change.     

An empirical comparison of knowledge and skill in the context of traditional ecological knowledge

Background

We test whether traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) about how to make an item predicts a person’s skill at making it among the Tsimane’ (Bolivia). The rationale for this research is that the failure to distinguish between knowledge and skill might account for some of the conflicting results about the relationships between TEK, human health, and economic development.

Methods

We test the association between a commonly-used measure of individual knowledge (cultural consensus analysis) about how to make an arrow or a bag and a measure of individual skill at making these items, using ordinary least-squares regression. The study consists of 43 participants from 3 villages.

Results

We find no association between our measures of knowledge and skill (core model, p?>?0.5,?R ² ?=?.132).

Conclusions

While we cannot rule out the possibility of a real association between these phenomena, we interpret our findings as support for the claim that researchers should distinguish between methods to measure knowledge and skill when studying trends in TEK.

     

An empirical formula for the growth of some vertebrate populations

Analysis of data obtained on house mice and white footed mice in the laboratory and on trumpeter swans in the field shows that the population growth can be described empirically in terms of power functions of time much better than by the usual logistic formula. The power function formula permits estimates of ultimate population and of the point of maximum rate of increase of population.     

Managing biodiversity data within the context of climate change: towards best practice

Decision makers, planners and researchers have identified the need to assess the effects of climate change on biodiversity, resulting in extensive research across a number of fields. The availability of comprehensive, accurate and relevant data is central to undertaking effective research. However, the quality and availability of biodiversity information is substantially determined by current and historical data collection strategies. If researchers and planners are to make effective use of existing and future investments in biodiversity information, a strategic approach should be taken in identifying and implementing best practice information management. This paper discusses ways to improve institutional support for information management and increase the availability of quality information. The paper reviews the most common areas of climate change and biodiversity research, and identifies best practices in information management, focusing on data used within biodiversity and climate change analyses.     

Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human populations

Aim It has been qualitatively understood for a long time that climate change will have widely varying effects on human well‐being in different regions of the world. The spatial complexities underlying our relationship to climate and the geographical disparities in human demographic change have, however, precluded the development of global indices of the predicted regional impacts of climate change on humans. Humans will be most negatively affected by climate change in regions where populations are strongly dependent on climate and favourable climatic conditions decline. Here we use the relationship between the distribution of human population density and climate as a basis to develop the first global index of predicted impacts of climate change on human populations. Location Global. Methods We use spatially explicit models of the present relationship between human population density and climate along with forecasted climate change to predict climate vulnerabilities over the coming decades. We then globally represent regional disparities in human population dynamics estimated with our ecological niche model and with a demographic forecast and contrast these disparities with CO₂ emissions data to quantitatively evaluate the notion of moral hazard in climate change policies. Results Strongly negative impacts of climate change are predicted in Central America, central South America, the Arabian Peninsula, Southeast Asia and much of Africa. Importantly, the regions of greatest vulnerability are generally distant from the high‐latitude regions where the magnitude of climate change will be greatest. Furthermore, populations contributing the most to greenhouse gas emissions on a per capita basis are unlikely to experience the worst impacts of climate change, satisfying the conditions for a moral hazard in climate change policies. Main conclusions Regionalized analysis of relationships between distribution of human population density and climate provides a novel framework for developing global indices of human vulnerability to climate change. The predicted consequences of climate change on human populations are correlated with the factors causing climate change at the regional level, providing quantitative support for many qualitative statements found in international climate change assessments.     

Testing the match–mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring ‘peak’ green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.