Genetic identification of SNP markers linked to a new grape phylloxera resistant locus in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vitis cinerea</Emphasis> for marker-assisted selection

Background

Grape phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch) is a major insect pest that negatively impacts commercial grapevine performance worldwide. Consequently, the use of phylloxera resistant rootstocks is an essential component of vineyard management. However, the majority of commercially available rootstocks used in viticulture production provide limited levels of grape phylloxera resistance, in part due to the adaptation of phylloxera biotypes to different Vitis species. Therefore, there is pressing need to develop new rootstocks better adapted to specific grape growing regions with complete resistance to grape phylloxera biotypes.

Results

Grapevine rootstock breeding material, including an accession of Vitis cinerea and V. aestivalis, DRX55 ([M. rotundifolia x V. vinifera] x open pollinated) and MS27-31 (M. rotundifolia specific hybrid), provided complete resistance to grape phylloxera in potted plant assays. To map the genetic factor(s) of grape phylloxera resistance, a F₁ V. cinerea x V. vinifera Riesling population was screened for resistance. Heritability analysis indicates that the V. cinerea accession contained a single allele referred as RESISTANCE TO DAKTULOSPHAIRA VITIFOLIAE 2 (RDV2) that confers grape phylloxera resistance. Using genetic maps constructed with pseudo-testcross markers for V. cinerea and Riesling, a single phylloxera resistance locus was identified in V. cinerea. After validating SNPs at the RDV2 locus, interval and linkage mapping showed that grape phylloxera resistance mapped to linkage group 14 at position 16.7 cM.

Conclusion

The mapping of RDV2 and the validation of markers linked to grape phylloxera resistance provides the basis to breed new rootstocks via marker-assisted selection that improve vineyard performance.

     

Fine-scale genetic structure of grape phylloxera from the roots and leaves of Vitis

Patterns of variation at microsatellite loci suggest that root populations of the pest grape phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae) are largely parthenogenetic in Australian vineyards. To investigate reproduction in leaf galling phylloxera and the association between these individuals and phylloxera on roots, we examined in detail genetic variation in phylloxera from a vineyard block. Some genotypes found on leaf galls within this block were not present on roots, whereas others spanned both zones. There was no evidence that genotypes on roots were the product of sexual reproduction in leaf galls. mtDNA variation was not associated with the location of the phylloxera clones. The spatial distribution of genotypes within a root population was further investigated by intensively sampling phylloxera from another vineyard block. Join-count spatial autocorrelation statistics were used to explore fine-scale spatial structure. Clones were nonrandomly distributed within the block and there was evidence that the distribution of clones followed rows. These findings suggest firstly that there is limited dispersal of root and leaf feeding phylloxera, and secondly that factors, other than vine host, are likely to be important and contribute to clonal structure within populations.     

A framework map from grapevine V3125 (Vitis vinifera ‘Schiava grossa’?×?‘Riesling’)?×?rootstock cultivar ‘B?rner’ (Vitis riparia?×?Vitis cinerea) to localize genetic determinants of phylloxera root resistance

Grapevine rootstock cultivar ‘B?rner’ is a hybrid of Vitis riparia and Vitis cinerea Arnold that shows high resistance to phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch). To localize the determinants of phylloxera root resistance, the susceptible grapevine V3125 (Vitis vinifera ‘Schiava grossa’ × ‘Riesling’) was crossed to ‘B?rner’. Genetic framework maps were built from the progeny. 235 microsatellite markers were placed on the integrated parental map. They cover 1,155.98 cM on 19 linkage groups with an average marker distance of 4.8 cM. Phylloxera resistance was scored by counting nodosities after inoculation of the root system. Progeny plants were triplicated and experimentally infected in 2 years. A scan of the genetic maps indicated a quantitative trait locus on linkage group 13. This region was targeted by six microsatellite-type markers newly developed from the V. vinifera model genome sequence. Two of these appear closely linked to the trait, and can be useful for marker-assisted breeding.     

Variation in performance on two grape cultivars within and among populations of grape Phylloxera from wild and cultivated habitats

When an indigenous insect becomes a pest, comparisons of performance of pest and non-pest populations on crop plants and of genetic variation in that performance may provide insight into the evolution of pest populations. To measure such genetic variation, 8–15 clones of the grape phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch) were collected from wild grapevines in each of 3 geographically isolated sites (populations) and from commercial vineyards in northern California. A complete life table was made for clonal replicates from populations collected from wild grapevines on each of two commercial grape cultivars, the susceptibleVitis vinifera (L.) cultivar Cabernet Sauvignon, and the phylloxera-resistant rootstock ‘AxR # 1’. Variation in mean performance on these two hosts was partitioned among clones within collection sites and among sites. Performance measures included an individual analog to the intrinsic rate of increase (r), age at first oviposition, fecundity in the first ten days of reproduction, total fecundity, and longevity. The overall performance of phylloxera from the wild grapevines on the resistant cultivar AxR # 1 was greater than or equal to that on the susceptible cultivar Cabernet Sauvignon. There was significant variation among clones within populations from wild grapes in the rate of increase on ‘AxR # 1’ and marginally significant clonal variation in some of the component paramters. There was no significant variation among clones within populations on ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ and no significant differences between populations on either crop in any trait. In a second experiment we compared the relative performance of 15–17 clones from wild grapevines and from commercial vineyards when reared on ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ and ‘AxR # 1’. Phylloxera from commercial vineyards had much higher overall performance on ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ than did phylloxera from the wild grapevines. Phylloxera from the commercial vineyard also had higher performance on ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ than on ‘AxR′ 1’ but the performance of the phylloxera from wild and commercial grapes did not differ on ‘AxR # 1’. Our results show that there is genetic variation in traits related to performance on a resistant rootstock within these indigenous non-pest populations of phylloxera, but not among them. The pattern of performance of pest and non-pest populations on two commercial cultivars suggests that current levels of phylloxera performance on crop cultivars are the result of adaptation to those cultivars which has occurred while phylloxera has been associated with viticulture. Implications of these results for understanding the recent adaptation of phylloxera to ‘AxR # 1’ in California are also discussed.     

Genetic variability and chromosome-length polymorphisms of the witches' broom pathogen Crinipellis perniciosa from various plant hosts in South America

Crinipellis perniciosa has been classified into at least four known biotypes associated with members of unrelated plant families. In this study, genetic variability is shown for 27 C (Cacao), 4 S (Solanum), and 7 L biotype (Liana) isolates of C. perniciosa collected from different regions of Brazil and South America. The objective was to investigate the genetic variability of the pathogen in the cacao-producing region of Bahia, Brazil, and elsewhere, through microsatellite analysis, and attempt to identify possible correlations between host specificity and electrophoretic karyotypes. The PCR-banding patterns were found to vary both within and between the different biotypes, and a correlation was established between the PCR-banding patterns and the chromosomal-banding patterns of each isolate. Microsatellite and chromosomal patterns among all of the L and S biotype isolates were distinctly different from the C biotypes analysed. A higher degree of genetic and chromosomal variability was found among C biotype isolates from the Amazon in comparison with C biotype isolates from Bahia, which seems to be comprised of only two main genotypes. This finding has important implications to the current cacao-breeding programme in Brazil.     

Variability in grape phylloxera preference and performance on canyon grape (Vitis arizonica)

We tested the deme-formation hypothesis experimentally with four populations of leaf-galling grape phylloxera, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae, and its host, canyon grape (Vitis arizonica). An experiment designed to examine preference and performance showed that phylloxera populations did not significantly prefer their original host relative to other hosts in the percent available leaves galled. There were significant herbivore population effects (P<0.01), host effects (P<0.001), and population x host interaction effects (P<0.001). Herbivore populations had different colonizing abilities (performance, as measured in the mean number of galls per leaf) on an individual host (P<0.001), but there was no host effect. Host genotype significantly affected phylloxera performance, measured as survivorship (P<0.01), but a phylloxera population did not necessarily have higher survivorship on its original host. Differences in fecundity, an-other measurement of performance, were due to intrinsic differences among herbivore populations (P<0.05), and not related to host genotype. There was no correlation between distance from a phylloxera population in the field and a host's susceptibility to attack. There was a significant positive relationship between levels of infestation on a clone in the field and its susceptibility to colonization experimentally (P<0.05), suggesting inherent differences in host resistance and susceptibility. These results did not support the deme-formation hypothesis. In a second experiment, host clone x water treatment interactions affected phylloxera survivorship (P<0.05) and fecundity (P<0.05). We conclude that host genotype x environment interactions may prevent sessile, parthenogenetic herbivores from locally adapting to individual host genotypes.     

Performance of native grape phylloxera on host plants within and among terrestrial islands in Arizona, USA

In Arizona, USA, the canyon grape, Vitis arizonica Englemann, and grape phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch, Homoptera, Phylloxeridae) are distributed among mountain ranges that are surrounded by expanses of desert lacking Vitis habitat, thus forming a system of terrestrial islands. Both herbivore and host populations may have diverged genetically among mountain ranges under the influence of restricted gene flow and variable selection among sites. Herbivore adaptation to local hosts would be expected to ensue, with the potential to promote divergence, both in traits under selection and by further reducing the probability of interisland colonization. To test the hypothesis that phylloxera are adapted to local hosts, demographic components of fitness of field-collected native grape phylloxera were measured in the greenhouse on vines of V. arizonica that were categorized as either natal, neighboring, and or isolated hosts. There was no evidence for greater adaptation to natal or neighboring hosts but there were significant interactions between herbivore and host treatments in one experiment. There was genetic variation for gall formation among six clones tested. Though a failure to detect local adaptation could have resulted from low statistical power, benign experimental conditions, or inadequate genetic variation, the divergence of isolated grape populations is suggested to have been insufficient to promote local adaptation in grape phylloxera at the level of isolated mountain ranges. It is further suggested that, within populations, adaptation to individual host plants could be forestalled by selection for ’general purpose genotypes’ through wind-borne displacement of colonizers into the unpredictable environment of a heterogeneous array of hosts. In addition, short-term extinction/colonization dynamics could promote gene flow such that time is insufficient for adaptive mutations or gene combination to arise. Received: 26 December 1998 / Accepted: 24 May 1999     

Differences between sympatric populations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eotetranychus carpini</Emphasis> collected from <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vitis vinifera</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Carpinus betulus</Emphasis>: insights from host-switch experiments and molecular data

Eotetranychus carpini (Oudemans) is an important pest of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in southern Europe. This mite is also found on a number of different plants, including Carpinus betulus L., which commonly occurs in stands and hedgerows bordering vineyards, where it may serve as a potential mite reservoir. The economic importance of this pest has motivated a number of studies aimed at investigating whether the mites found on V. vinifera and C. betulus are conspecific. The results obtained to date have been inconclusive. In this study, we used biological and molecular approaches to investigate this issue. First, we conducted host-switch experiments to test the ability of E. carpini to develop on an alternative host plant, using mite populations originally collected on either C. betulus or V. vinifera plants from the same area. Second, we investigated DNA-based differentiation using nucleotide sequences of the ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 region of the ribosomal DNA of individual E. carpini from the populations examined in our host-plant experiments. We also analyzed sequences of individuals collected in other regions (Italy and Slovenia) to estimate species variation. The results from our host-switch experiments suggest the differentiation of mites collected on the two hosts. Mites collected from C. betulus did not survive and reproduce on V. vinifera and vice versa. Our molecular work revealed significant genetic differentiation between the mites collected from the two hosts, but no evidence of genetic variation among specimens collected from the same host species. Our results indicate the existence of host races of E. carpini.     

AFLP analysis of genetic relationships among aromatic grapevines (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Vitis vinifera</Emphasis>)

Genotypic diversity has been detected among aromatic grapevines (Vitis vinifera) by molecular markers (AFLPs). The 22 primer-pairs generated a total of 1,331 bands of which 564 (40%) were polymorphic over all the genotypes. The bootstrap analysis pointed out that a large number of polymorphic bands (200–400) has to be used for a better estimation of the genetic distances among genotypes; 383 polymorphic AFLP bands were used for the cluster and the principal coordinate analyses because they did not present missing data across all the genotypes. The cluster analysis (UPGMA), based on polymorphic AFLP markers, revealed no relationship between the Moscato and Malvasia grapevines. The Malvasias, unlike the Moscatos distinguished by their distinct muscat aroma, have to be considered a more complex group because it includes muscat and non-muscat grapevines. The principal coordinate analysis (PCO) confirmed the pattern of the cluster analysis only for those varieties which presented a low coefficient of dissimilarity, while for the other varieties there was no correspondence between the two analyses. The pattern of aggregation among aromatic grapevines in the cluster and principal coordinate analyses does not support any classification that might include an aromatic grapevine group in V. vinifera. Even though some synonyms and homonyms are present among aromatic grapevines (V. vinifera), genetic diversity exists among genotypes in AFLP markers.Communicated by H.F. Linskens     

Preference and performance responses of California grape phylloxera to different Vitis rootstocks

Laboratory experiments on host preference and performance were simultaneously conducted with Cabernet Sauvignon, AXR#1, and 5C Vitis rootstocks for the California biotypes A and B grape phylloxera. Preference bioassays recorded over a 3-day period indicated that phylloxera exhibit differential host choice. AXR#1 is antixenotic to biotype A, and 5C is antixenotic to both phylloxera biotypes. Preferences observed with biotype B for Cabernet Sauvignon and AXR#1 were not statistically different, whereas biotype A had shown a significant preference for Cabernet Sauvignon. On 5C the preferences scored were significantly lower than on either of the other two rootstocks, and there was no significant difference beetween biotypes. Performance bioassays recorded over a 29-day period indicated that survival, development, and reproduction of both biotypes were affected by Vitis rootstock. Both biotypes were unable to survive or develop on 5C suggesting the presence of antibiotic resistance in 5C against these phylloxera biotypes. The antibiotic effects observed with AXR#1 against biotype A were expressed as significant reductions in survival, development, and reproduction. Performance of biotype B on AXR#1 was similar to its performance on Cabernet Sauvignon. For both AXR#1 and 5C rootstocks and both phylloxera biotypes A and B the antibiotic mechanism was considerably stronger than the antixenotic mechanism. This research indicated that host preference and performance are positively correlated in grape phylloxera with the rootstocks and phylloxera biotypes tested.     

Pantoea agglomerans‐associated bacteria in grape phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae,Fitch)

1 Grape phylloxera lack intracellular symbionts, but the leaf‐galling form appears to be associated with a single microbial species. 2 16S and 18SrDNA sequences were used for identification of symbiotic material. 3 A single bacterial species, closely related to Pantoea agglomerans, was identified in adult parthenogenetic individuals, their eggs and leaf gall tissue of several populations. 4 A 16S rDNA primer pair was designed to test grape phylloxera populations more specifically for the presence of P. agglomerans. 5 16S rDNA sequences of the identified bacteria were very similar to already‐known secondary symbionts occurring in aphids, thrips and other insects. 6 The identified bacteria were culturable on simple media, which demonstrates that the relationship between grape phylloxera and P. agglomerans is not as firm as that of the obligately endosymbiotic Buchnera aphidicola and other aphids.     

Genetic diversity of wild grapevine populations in Spain and their genetic relationships with cultivated grapevines

The wild grapevine, Vitis vinifera L. ssp. sylvestris (Gmelin) Hegi, considered as the ancestor of the cultivated grapevine, is native from Eurasia. In Spain, natural populations of V. vinifera ssp. sylvestris can still be found along river banks. In this work, we have performed a wide search of wild grapevine populations in Spain and characterized the amount and distribution of their genetic diversity using 25 nuclear SSR loci. We have also analysed the possible coexistence in the natural habitat of wild grapevines with naturalized grapevine cultivars and rootstocks. In this way, phenotypic and genetic analyses identified 19% of the collected samples as derived from cultivated genotypes, being either naturalized cultivars or hybrid genotypes derived from spontaneous crosses between wild and cultivated grapevines. The genetic diversity of wild grapevine populations was similar than that observed in the cultivated group. The molecular analysis showed that cultivated germplasm and wild germplasm are genetically divergent with low level of introgression. Using a model‐based approach implemented in the software structure , we identified four genetic groups, with two of them fundamentally represented among cultivated genotypes and two among wild accessions. The analyses of genetic relationships between wild and cultivated grapevines could suggest a genetic contribution of wild accessions from Spain to current Western cultivars.     

Genetic relationship between Chinese wild Vitis species and American and European Cultivars based on ISSR markers

Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers were employed to detect the genetic diversity among 70 grape accessions including 52 clones of 17 Chinese wild grape species, seven interspecific hybrids, 10 Vitis vinifera L. cultivars, and one strain of Vitis riparia L. A total of 119 polymorphic bands with an average of 11.9 per primer were observed. The unweighted pair-group method (UPGMA) analysis indicated that the 70 clones or accessions had a similarity range from 0.08 to 0.93, indicating that abundant diversities exist among these accessions. Based on cluster analysis and principal coordinate analysis, all accessions could be divided into two major groups, the Chinese wild grape group, and the American and European cultivar group. The largest distance was found among V. riparia MichX, Vitis piasezkii, V. vinifera L. interspecific hybrid (Vitis binifera × V. labrusca) and the wild grapes native to China.     

An assessment method for the quantification of Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (Fitch) (Hem., Phylloxeridae) populations in the field

Abstract:  Grape phylloxera is a plant parasite that has started to become a pest again in European viticulture in spite of the use of grafted rootstocks. Since the middle of the 1980s, there have been various reports of vine damage caused by phylloxera. It was shown that in some cases there is no direct correlation between the occurrence of phylloxera and vine damage. In this context, phytopathogenic microorganisms, especially fungi, are mentioned in literature. To investigate the possible interactions it is necessary to be able to assess phylloxera populations in the field, e.g. to correlate phylloxera abundance with the vigour of the vines. Because of the non-homogenous distribution of the grape roots in the soil and of phylloxera on the roots, a method that meets these conditions was established. For the root sampling, a method that ensures reproducible numbers and a high probability of root detection was developed. The second component of the method is a ranking system for the visual assessment of the populations. For the validation of the assessment system, the absolute number of phylloxera feeding sites, all phylloxera instars and phylloxera eggs were related to the weight of fresh and dry roots. The statistical analysis has shown a significant differentiation between the assessment classes (P ≤ 0.01). Furthermore, a correlation ( R ² = 0.732) between the phylloxera populations, assessed with this method, and soil temperatures could be shown. Such a correlation was shown in various studies and, therefore, supports the validity of the assessment system presented in this paper.     

Development of Pathogenicity and AFLP to Characterize Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. momordicae Isolates from Bitter Gourd in China

Bitter gourd (Momordica charantia L.) cultivated in China is regarded as an important vegetable crop and is of considerable economic importance. However, it is susceptible to fusarium wilt, which causes heavy economic losses. Forty‐eight isolates were isolated from diseased bitter gourd plants that displayed typical fusarium wilt symptoms. Based on the morphological features, the rDNA internal transcribed space (ITS) sequences, pathogenicity and host biotypes, all of the isolates tested were pathogenic to the susceptible bitter gourd plants species (cv. ‘Guinongke No. 2’) and were identified as Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. momordicae (FOM). Our results classified different isolates as slightly, moderately or highly virulent. Among the isolates tested, 43 isolates slightly infected bottle gourd (Lagenaria siceraria var. clavata), whereas they did not infect other species from the family Cucurbitaceae. Genetic diversity among 48 isolates was characterized using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis. The number of bands amplified by each primer pairs ranged from 41 to 66, with sizes ranging from 200 to 500 bp. A total of 366 bands were observed, out of which 363 were polymorphic (99.14%). The Nei's genetic identity of the six geographical populations varied from 0.7362 to 0.9707. The mean Nei's gene diversity index (H = 0.2644) and the mean Shannon's information index (I = 0.4071) at species level were higher than ones at populations level, indicated that the variation within populations was greater than that among populations. The Nei's GST (0.5103) and gene flow (Nm = 0.4923) revealed that genetic differentiation was mainly among populations and few gene exchanges. The dendrogram obtained from AFLP marker showed that there was a good correlation between isolates from different geographical locations and their pathogenicity. The AFLP marker effectively distinguished the high virulent isolates from the less virulent isolates. The highly virulent isolates were distinctly separated in different clusters, which indicated a significantly high correlation with the geographical origin in the AFLP dendrogram. The pathogenicity and molecular marker analysis confirmed the presence of variation in virulence as well as genetic diversity among the FOM isolates studied.     

Selection for Mating Reluctance in Females of a Diploid Parthenogenetic Strain of DROSOPHILA MERCATORUM

A diploid parthenogenetic strain of Drosophila mercatorum was outcrossed to produce genetic variance among the impaternate female offspring. Selection experiments were carried out for reluctance of the parthenogenetic females to mate.After only two cycles of selection, a parthenogenetic strain which is significantly less receptive to males from three different bisexual strains was obtained. It was also found that there is some degree of sexual isolation among the three bisexual strains used. The results support the idea that selection can render a newly produced diploid parthenogenetic strain behaviorally different from its bisexual ancestor. This appears to provide a framework which can explain the natural coexistence of diploid bisexual and diploid parthenogenetic biotypes in some species of insects.     

Using high-throughput amplified fragment length polymorphism to distinguish sorghum greenbug (Homoptera: Aphididae) biotypes

Abstract 1 The greenbug Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) is a serious pest of Sorghum bicolor L. and small grains in the Southern Plains of the U.S.A. Use of resistant cultivars, the major greenbug management strategy, has been challenged by the rapid development of new greenbug biotypes that overcome plant resistance. 2 We used a high‐throughput amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting method to examine genetic divergence among eight greenbug biotypes (B, C, E, G, I and K, New York and South Carolina). Clustering analysis based on 1775 scored AFLP markers clearly showed that biotypes (C, E, I and K), which are able to infest sorghum fields, share more common polymorphisms among themselves than with other biotypes. 3 This result suggests that common genetic factors exist among these biotypes, enabling them to predominate and thrive in monoculture crops. Our study demonstrated the sensitivity of AFLP in obtaining large quantities of biotype‐associated polymorphic information across the entire greenbug genome.     

Expression analysis of UDP-glucose:flavonoid 3-O-glucosyltransferase (UFGT) gene in an interspecific hybrid grape between Vitis ficifolia var. ganebu and Vitis vinifera cv. Muscat of Alexandria

Kadainou R-1, an interspecific hybrid grape derived from red (Vitis ficifolia var. ganebu) and white (V. vinifera cv. Muscat of Alexandria) grapes, accumulates high concentrations of anthocyanin in the berry skin. Hence, the expression of uridine 5′-diphosphate (UDP)-glucose:flavonoid 3-O-glucosyltransferase (UFGT), the key enzyme of the anthocyanin pathway, was examined in the berry skin of Kadainou R-1. As information on gene sequences of V. ficifolia var. ganebu and other wild grape species was unavailable, we performed GeneChip hybridization using biotin-labeled genomic deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) to investigate how the genomic sequences of V. vinifera varieties and that of V. ficifolia var. ganebu differ. The study showed a lower correlation coefficient between V. vinifera cultivars and V. ficifolia var. ganebu than that among V. vinifera cultivars. The sequences of the UFGT gene derived from both parents of the red and white cultivars were sequenced in Kadainou R1 and revealed that both were expressed irrespective of the fact that it was not expressed in the white grape (male parent).     

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura spp.) biotype reactions to forest and climate characteristics

The spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is the most destructive insect defoliator of forests in North America. Climatic influences on this species' life history are considered a major factor in restricting the extent and intensity of outbreaks. We examine the life history traits of the spruce budworm and related Choristoneura populations with respect to forecasting the conifer‐feeding responses of these insects in changing environments. Analysis of the evolutionary relationships between Choristoneura entities, including their hybridization, genetic distances, and their degree of sympatry leads us to distinguish 15 possible Choristoneura‘biotypes’. Population trend has been associated with recruitment to the feeding stage, and two indicators of recruitment, egg weights and phenological development, are both ‘biotype’ and climate dependent. Among Abietoid feeding ‘biotypes’ and among spruce budworm populations, those from locations with extreme winters tend to have heavier eggs than those from the more benign environments. In spruce budworm, this genetically based adaptation allows populations to increase their potential recruitment substantially where winters are mild. All biotypes feed on the newly developed shoots of their host trees in spring, and are thus vulnerable to the uncertain timing of budbreak. Genetic control of spring emergence is weak so larvae from a single family typically exit from hibernacula over a prolonged period. This guarantees some synchronization with budburst. However, hybrid populations have high heritabilities. This allows rapid adaptation to new conditions (e.g. mixed host‐species stands). Geographic variation in phenological development after establishing feeding sites is largely genetically controlled. The importance of variation in these traits is examined with respect to competing population dynamics theories to evaluate their utility in forecasting future trends in defoliation. We finish with a plea for jointly using alternative approaches in forecasting spatiotemporal patterns of defoliation.