Changes in Northwest Atlantic Arctic and Subarctic conditions and the growth response of Atlantic salmon

There has been a systematic change in the weight at age of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic that is related to climate variability. This relationship emerged from analyses of broad-scale measures of ocean surface thermal habitat, which show that expansion of the area bounding 4–8°C is associated with greater growth. To further elucidate the effect of the environment on salmon growth, time series of sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice coverage, chlorophyll concentration, net primary production and zooplankton abundance were examined temporally and spatially in relation to changes in the weight of salmon. SST and zooplankton data were extracted from in situ analyses, whereas sea ice and chlorophyll-based measures of productivity were collected with satellite sensors. Salmon growth was found to be unrelated to productivity at the base of the food chain but highly associated with thermal regime during winter and spring. Warming conditions during specific segments of the salmon life cycle have been associated with poor adult recruitment; yet, warming during others is beneficial to salmon growth and is assumed to increase reproductive output of spawning fish. Despite these positive influences, climate change will continue to erode the viability of salmon populations while the negative effects of warming on survivorship outweigh the benefits of any increase in reproductive output related to growth.     

Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate

Widespread declines among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long‐term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically mediated effects on juveniles (>0+) might contribute to population change. Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment, respectively, by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time. Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at eight sites, increased by 0.5–0.7 °C in summer and 0.7–1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1–1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multilevel mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuations in both brown trout and salmon. Taken alongside recent data showing effects of warming on survival at sea, these data suggest that Atlantic salmon might be jeopardized by future climatic effects in both their marine and freshwater stages. Effects on nondiadromous brown trout also imply climatically mediated processes in freshwaters or their catchments. Climate projections for the United Kingdom suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading.     

Basin‐scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (‘parr’) stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (‘smolt’) is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr‐smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within‐ and among‐river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post‐smolts. Using generalized additive mixed‐effects modelling, we analysed spatio‐temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea‐surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.     

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river‐specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate‐driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.     

Retrospective growth analysis of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and implications for abundance trends

Scale archives of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from Maine, U.S.A., were examined to determine whether ocean conditions affected the long‐term trends in S. salar populations in the southern tier of the species' range in North America. To date, scale analyses of southern tier populations have been limited to hatchery fish; previous studies suggest that post‐smolt growth does not influence recruitment, with the exception that winter growth may play a role in stock maturation rate. A time series of scales from the Machias and Narraguagus Rivers spanning the years 1946 to 1999 was analysed. Image analysis was used to measure intercirculi spacing, which provided proxy variables of growth rate. Post‐smolt growth increment has increased since the early 1990s, as returns have decreased, suggesting that survival factors act on post‐smolts independent of growth. The data support the hypothesis of a decoupling between freshwater size and early marine growth. Growth during the second sea winter was independent of post‐smolt growth, suggesting that individuals are capable of significant compensatory growth. Southern tier North American stocks exhibit a similar pattern of independence between growth and survival as observed for northern tier North American stocks. These data support the inference that the recruitment of the North American and European subspecies is governed by fundamentally different mechanisms.     

Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: Salmon in the Arctic?

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.     

It is the economy,stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological–economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species – Atlantic salmon and European sea bass – mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process‐based ecological–economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.     

Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock‐specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

Mean summer water temperatures in the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) have increased by ～1.5 °C since the 1950s. In recent years, record high river temperatures during spawning migrations of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) have been associated with high mortality events, raising concerns about long‐term viability of the numerous natal stocks faced with climate warming. In this study, the effect of freshwater thermal experience on spawning migration survival was estimated by fitting capture–recapture models to telemetry data collected for 1474 adults (captured in either the ocean or river between 2002 and 2007) from four Fraser River sockeye salmon stock‐aggregates (Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako‐Late Stuart and Adams). Survival of Adams sockeye salmon was the most impacted by warm temperatures encountered in the lower river, followed by that of Stellako‐Late Stuart and Quesnel. In contrast, survival of Chilko fish was insensitive to the encountered river temperature. In all stocks, in‐river survival of ocean‐captured sockeye salmon was higher than that of river‐captured fish and, generally, the difference was more pronounced under warm temperatures. The survival–temperature relationships for ocean‐captured fish were used to predict historic (1961–1990) and future (2010–2099) survival under simulated lower river thermal experiences for the Quesnel, Stellako‐Late Stuart and Adams stocks. A decrease of 9–16% in survival of all these stocks was predicted by the end of the century if the Fraser River continues to warm as expected. However, the decrease in future survival of Adams sockeye salmon would occur only if fish continue to enter the river abnormally early, towards warmer periods of the summer, as they have done since 1995. The survival estimates and predictions presented here are likely optimistic and emphasize the need to consider stock‐specific responses to temperature and climate warming into fisheries management and conservation strategies.     

Perspectives on wild and hatchery salmon interactions at sea,potential climate effects on Japanese chum salmon,and the need for sustainable salmon fishery management reform in Japan

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) play an important role as a keystone species and provider of ecosystem services in the North Pacific ecosystem. We review our studies on recent production trends, marine carrying capacity, climate effects and biological interactions between wild and hatchery origin populations of Pacific salmon in the open sea, with a particular focus on Japanese chum salmon (O. keta). Salmon catch data indicates that the abundance of Pacific salmon increased since the 1976/77 ocean regime shift. Chum and pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) maintained high abundances with a sharp increase in hatchery-released populations since the late 1980s. Since the 1990s, the biomass contribution of hatchery returns to the total catch amounts to 50% for chum salmon, more than 10% for pink salmon, and less than 10% for sockeye salmon (O. nerka). We show evidence of density-dependence of growth and survival at sea and how it might vary across spatial scales, and we provide some new information on foraging plasticity that may offer new insight into competitive interactions. The marine carrying capacity of these three species is synchronized with long-term patterns in climate change. At the present time, global warming has positively affected growth and survival of Hokkaido populations of chum salmon. In the future, however, global warming may decrease the marine carrying capacity and the area of suitable habitat for chum salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. We outline future challenges for salmon sustainable conservation management in Japan, and recommend fishery management reform to sustain the hatchery-supported salmon fishery while conserving natural spawning populations.     

Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.     

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean

A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971–2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971–2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate‐induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.     

Sea growth, smolt age and age at sexual maturation in Atlantic salmon

Relationships between growth at sea, smolt size and age at sexual maturation of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar were tested. The fish were offspring of brood stocks sampled in eight Norwegian rivers at latitudes between 59° and 70° N, hatchery reared and released at smolting at the mouth of the River Imsa (59° N). Smolt size influenced the subsequent growth rate of Atlantic salmon. The larger the fish were at release, the slower the yearly length increment at sea. Mean sea age at sexual maturity, measured as proportion of the returning adults attaining sexual maturity at sea age 2 years, was significantly correlated with mean growth rate during the first year at sea and mean smolt size ( r ²= 0·74, P < 0·001). Fish attaining maturity at a relatively high sea age were more fast growing during their first year at sea than those maturing at a younger age. The results indicate that high sea age at sexual maturation is a population-specific characteristic and associated with high early growth rate at sea.     

Contemporary ocean warming and freshwater conditions are related to later sea age at maturity in Atlantic salmon spawning in Norwegian rivers

Atlantic salmon populations are reported to be declining throughout its range, raising major management concerns. Variation in adult fish abundance may be due to variation in survival, growth, and timing of life history decisions. Given the complex life history, utilizing highly divergent habitats, the reasons for declines may be multiple and difficult to disentangle. Using recreational angling data of two sea age groups, one‐sea‐winter (1SW) and two‐sea‐winter (2SW) fish originated from the same smolt year class, we show that sea age at maturity of the returns has increased in 59 Norwegian rivers over the cohorts 1991–2005. By means of linear mixed‐effects models we found that the proportion of 1SW fish spawning in Norway has decreased concomitant with the increasing sea surface temperature experienced by the fish in autumn during their first year at sea. Furthermore, the decrease in the proportion of 1SW fish was influenced by freshwater conditions as measured by water discharge during summer months 1 year ahead of seaward migration. These results suggest that part of the variability in age at maturity can be explained by the large‐scale changes occurring in the north‐eastern Atlantic pelagic food web affecting postsmolt growth, and by differences in river conditions influencing presmolt growth rate and later upstream migration.     

Climate effects on size‐at‐age: growth in warming waters compensates for earlier maturity in an exploited marine fish

Over the past 3 decades, North Sea Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) have exhibited variable length‐at‐age along with declines in spawning stock biomass and timing of maturity. Multiple factors affecting growth and development in fish acted on this economically important stock over the same period including warming waters and an intensive fishery. Here, we employ North Sea cod as a model population, exploring how a physiologically relevant temperature metric (the growing degree‐day, GDD; °C day) can be used to compare year‐classes on a physiologically relevant time‐scale, disentangling influences of climate (thermal history) on observed length‐at‐age trends. We conclude that the trends in North Sea cod length‐at‐age observed during the last three decades can be explained by a combination of temperature‐dependent growth increases and a trend toward earlier maturation, the latter likely induced by the intensive fishing pressure, and possibly evidence of fisheries‐induced evolution.     

Population and size-specific distribution of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the Baltic Sea over five decades

Population-specific assessment and management of anadromous fish at sea requires detailed information about the distribution at sea over ontogeny for each population. However, despite a long history of mixed-stock sea fisheries on Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, migration studies showing that some salmon populations feed in different regions of the Baltic Sea and variation in dynamics occurs among populations feeding in the Baltic Sea, such information is often lacking. Also, current assessment of Baltic salmon assumes equal distribution at sea and therefore equal responses to changes in off-shore sea fisheries. Here, we test for differences in distribution at sea among and within ten Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations originating from ten river-specific hatcheries along the Swedish Baltic Sea coast, using individual data from >125,000 tagged salmon, recaptured over five decades. We show strong population and size-specific differences in distribution at sea, varying between year classes and between individuals within year classes. This suggests that Atlantic salmon in the Baltic Sea experience great variation in environmental conditions and exploitation rates over ontogeny depending on origin and that current assessment assumptions about equal exploitation rates in the offshore fisheries and a shared environment at sea are not valid. Thus, our results provide additional arguments and necessary information for implementing population-specific management of salmon, also when targeting life stages at sea.     

A study on the relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperature and Amazonian greenness

The growth of tropical rainforest in Amazon is critically vulnerable to the change in rainfall and radiation than in temperature, and that amount of rainfall and cloudiness in the northeast region of South American is strongly affected by the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). Results from recent model experiments for future climate projection have indicated a reduction of Amazonian greenness by a weakening of tropical vapor circulation system related with the change in SST. Therefore, the observational investigation of the relations between the Amazon greenness and Atlantic SST is fundamental to understand the response of Amazonian tropical forest to climate change. In this study, the effect of Atlantic SST on the spatial and temporal change of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Amazonian region is examined by using satellite remote sensing data for the period of 1981–2001. A strong correlation between NDVI and SST is found for certain regions in Amazon during the periods of 1980s and 1990s, respectively. In addition, strong correlations with NDVI lagging behind SST for two months and one year, respectively, are also identified from the interannual December-to-February (rain season) variations during 1981–2001. Despite these findings, the mechanisms behind the identified correlation remain unclear. Further analyses using observed precipitation and radiation data are required to understand the potential changes of Amazonian rainforest in the context of global warming.     

Climate effects on growth, phenology, and survival of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka): a synthesis of the current state of knowledge and future research directions

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) is one of the most iconic and valued species of Pacific salmon. Various studies have examined the potential effects of future climate change on sockeye salmon, but there is currently no synthesis of the documented effects of climate on this species. In this paper, we present a synthesis of 80 peer-reviewed publications in the English language evaluating the effects of climate on sockeye salmon growth, phenology, and survival. The great majority of studies examined have been conducted with stocks from North America (90?% of studies). Survival (55?%) has been the most frequently studied aspect of the sockeye salmon life history in relation to climate, followed by growth (45?%) and phenology (30?%), with temperature (83.4?%) being the climate-related variable most frequently examined in such studies. Across life stages, the effects of climate-related variables have been most frequently studied on fry (36.3?%) and least studied on spawners (7.5?%). Our synthesis revealed that associations between temperature and growth, phenology, or survival have been uncovered for all the life stages of sockeye salmon, whereas relationships with other climate-related variables have been sparse. There is substantial evidence that sockeye salmon are influenced by thermal conditions experienced at regional, rather than ocean- or continental-wide scales, and that responses to temperature vary among and within stocks. The mechanisms by which climate affect sockeye salmon during the early stages in freshwater and while at sea are still poorly understood and warrant future research. More research on the effects of non-temperature, climate-related variables (e.g. stream flow, ocean pH), inter-generational and carry-over effects of climate, interaction between climate and non-climate stressors, and adaptation to climate change are also needed. Such information will be critical to advance our understanding of how sockeye salmon stocks will fare with future climate change.     

Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century

Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature‐dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature‐ and oxygen‐dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits.     

Nonlinearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: Cod and haddock as an example

Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co‐occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33‐year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto‐Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state‐space threshold model, we demonstrated that long‐term climate variation, as expressed by changes of ST, affected species demography through different influences on density‐independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in ST, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (ST over ca. 4°C), the increase in the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long‐term climate change in the Arcto‐Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.