Preventive Medicine and Public Health: Escherichia coli O 157:H7: Infections

The Council on Scientific Affairs of the California Medical Association presents the following epitomes of progress in preventive medicine and public health. Each item, in the judgment of a panel of knowledgeable physicians, has recently become reasonably firmly established, both as to scientific fact and clinical importance. The items are presented in simple epitome, and an authoritative reference, both to the item itself and to the subject as a whole, is generally given for those who may be unfamiliar with a particular item. The purpose is to assist busy practitioners, students, researchers, and scholars to stay abreast of progress in medicine, whether in their own field of special interest or another.The epitomes included here were selected by the Advisory Panel to the Section on Preventive Medicine and Public Health of the California Medical Association, and the summaries were prepared under the direction of Dr Thom and the Scientific Advisory Panel to the Section on Preventive Medicine and Public Health.     

Preventive Medicine and Public Health—Important Advances in Clinical Medicine: Short-term Chemotherapy for Tuberculosis

The Scientific Board of the California Medical Association presents the following inventory of items of progress in preventive medicine and public health. Each item, in the judgment of a panel of knowledgeable physicians, has recently become reasonably firmly established, both as to scientific fact and important clinical significance. The items are presented in simple epitome and an authoritative reference, both to the item itself and to the subject as a whole, is generally given for those who may be unfamiliar with a particular item. The purpose is to assist busy practitioners, students, research workers or scholars to stay abreast of these items of progress in preventive medicine and public health that have recently achieved a substantial degree of authoritative acceptance, whether in their own field of special interest or another.The items of progress listed below were selected by the Advisory Panel to the Section on Preventive Medicine and Public Health of the California Medical Association and the summaries were prepared under its direction.     

Bayesian Updating of Model-Based Risk Estimates Using Imperfect Public Health Surveillance Data

Model-based estimation of the human health risks resulting from exposure to environmental contaminants can be an important tool for structuring public health policy. Due to uncertainties in the modeling process, the outcomes of these assessments are usually probabilistic representations of a range of possible risks. In some cases, health surveillance data are available for the assessment population over all or a subset of the risk projection period and this additional information can be used to augment the model-based estimates. We use a Bayesian approach to update model-based estimates of health risks based on available health outcome data. Updated uncertainty distributions for risk estimates are derived using Monte Carlo sampling, which allows flexibility to model realistic situations including measurement error in the observable outcomes. We illustrate the approach by using imperfect public health surveillance data on lung cancer deaths to update model-based lung cancer mortality risk estimates in a population exposed to ionizing radiation from a uranium processing facility.