The management of metabolic energy storage during the life cycle of mayflies: a comparative field investigation of the collector-gatherer <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ephemera danica</Emphasis> and the scraper <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhithrogena semicolorata</Emphasis>

The concentration and seasonal dynamics of the major energy storage components, triglycerides and glycogen, were measured in two species of mayfly (Rhithrogena semicolorata and Ephemera danica) with contrasting life cycle strategies living in a small mountain stream. E. danica is a burrowing, semivoltine collector-gatherer; R. semicolorata is univoltine and scrapes periphyton from stones. This is the first publication which focuses on the role of metabolic energy sources during the larval life span of two mayfly species until the larvae emerge. Although triglycerides are the major energy reserve in both species (>84% of total energy storage) throughout the whole larval development their seasonal dynamic differed considerably. In R. semicolorata the triglyceride concentration declined during the last weeks prior to emergence in both sexes. The same pattern was found in female larvae of E. danica, but not in male E. danica. It is suggested that females use triglycerides in the last larval stages for egg maturation, which is completed in the last larval instar. In male E. danica the triglyceride concentrations remained high until emergence, presumably due to their high energy demands as adults for their swarming flights. Glycogen concentrations did not show such a difference between species and sexes. Its significance as a storage substrate for energy is rather low; however, concentrations decreased in both species and sexes prior to emergence.     

Phenological responses in a sycamore–aphid–parasitoid system and consequences for aphid population dynamics: A 20 year case study

Species interactions have a spatiotemporal component driven by environmental cues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics. There is insufficient understanding of the precise time windows during which inter‐annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamics—particularly for insects. We use a 20 year study on a tri‐trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local‐scale aphid population dynamics. Warmer temperatures in mid‐March to late‐April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence. The precise time window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generates marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density‐dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter‐annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species.     

Warm springs reduce parasitism of the cereal leaf beetle through phenological mismatch

Variation in weather among years may affect biological control of insect pests by influencing how well matched in phenology specialist parasitoids are with their pest hosts. A 10‐year study in western North America (Utah) revealed greater change with warm versus cool springs in the life cycle timing of the cereal leaf beetle (CLB), Oulema melanopus (L.), than of its principal enemy, the parasitoid wasp Tetrastichus julis (Walker). The beetle laid eggs, and larval populations developed in crop fields earlier on a calendar‐day basis, but nonetheless after more degree‐days had accumulated, in warmer than in cooler springs. The phenology of parasitism by wasps, in contrast, varied little among springs in relation to accumulated degree‐days. Consequently, in warmer springs, larval phenology of the CLB was delayed relative to adult parasitoid activity, and parasitism was reduced. Presently, a significant degree of biological control of the CLB results from parasitism by T. julis. By promoting phenological mismatch between host and parasitoid, however, a warming climate could weaken this biological control of the insect pest.     

Zur Tagesperiodik des Schlüpfens von Ephemeropteren und Plecopteren

Zusammenfassung Am Ufer des Mondsees, Oberösterreich, wurde die Tagesperiodik des Schlüpfens folgender Insektenarten in einem Schlüpfkasten experimentell untersucht: Nemoura cinerea: Schlüpft während des ganzen Tages mit Maxima zwischen 6.00 und 10.00 Uhr und nachmittags; Ephemerella ignita: Schlüpfmaximum von 18.00–20.00 Uhr; Leptophlebia marginata, Ephemera danica und Centroptilum luteolum: Schlüpfmaxima von 12.00–16.00 Uhr.Die Dauer des Subimaginallebens der untersuchten Ephemeropterenarten wurde durch Aufzucht zur Imago festgestellt. Die Bedeutung dieser temperaturabhängigen Entwicklungszeit für die Tagesperiodik der Imaginalhäutung wird diskutiert.

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Summary The diurnal periodicity of emergence of several stonefly and mayfly species was studied on the shore of lake Mondsee, Austria. Nemoura cinerea (Plecoptera) emerges during the whole day with peaks in the morning and afternoon. The Ephemeroptera Leptophlebia marginata, Ephemera danica and Centroptilum luteolum emerge as subimagines at noon and in the afternoon, Ephemerella ignita in the evening around sunset. The duration of the subimaginal life of these mayfly species was determined. The importance of the temperature-dependent length of subimaginal life for the diurnal periodicity of the imagoes' emergence from subimaginal stage is discussed.

     

Secondary Production and Its Trophic Basis of Two Mayfly Species in a Subtropical Stream of China

During June 2003 to June 2004, an investigation on life cycle, production and trophic basis of two species of mayfly in a second‐order river of Hanjiang River Basin, Hubei, China was conducted. The results showed Epeorus sinensis Umler and Caenis nigropunctata Wu both developed two generations a year. The mean annual production and P/B ratio of E. sinensis were 9.154 g m^–2 a^–1 dry weight and 16.0, and those of C. nigropunctata were 1.554 g m^–2 a^–1 and 9.6, respectively. For E. sinensis , the proportions contributing to secondary production of the main food types were: amorphous detritus 33.46%, fungi 10.8%, vascular plant detritus 1.8%, diatoms 53.9%; for C. nigropunctata , the proportions were 70.8%, 6.90%, 3.5% and 18.8%, respectively. Compared with those species reported in North America and Europe, although land use mode and local climate were greatly different in China, life history and trophic basis of the mayflies seemed roughly similar, yet secondary production appeared to be much higher. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Long‐term monitoring of the life history of a riverine mayfly Ephemera orientalis (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) in the Han River in Seoul,Korea

Climatic change often affects life history aspects of aquatic insects. Long‐term monitoring was conducted to understand the life history variability of the riverine mayfly Ephemera orientalis in the Han river, where habitat is largely disturbed by summer floods. Water level of the study site, Godeok‐dong area in Seoul, is regulated by the Paldang Dam located approximately 14 km above the study site. E. orientalis often emerged in large numbers around the study area. Larvae were sampled monthly from April 2006 to July 2010 using a Surber sampler (50 × 50 cm, mesh 0.25 mm, two replicates). Additional qualitative sampling was conducted using a hand net. As a result, based on the larval body size distribution, E. orientalis had a univoltine life cycle with two distinct slow growing cohort groups: the S1group emerged during May–June and the S2 group emerged during August–September. Our previous study conducted in Gapyeong stream in Gyeonggi‐do showed that E. orientalis normally had three cohort groups, S‐1 and S‐2 groups and the F‐group (a fast growing cohort developed during May–August). However, the Han River population of E. orientalis lacked such a fast growing cohort. It is most probable that habitat disturbances caused by high water level during the rainy season negatively affected the development of the fast growing cohort (F‐group) in the Han River area. The relationships between monthly E. orientalis population data and water level in the Han River are presented.     

Mainstem‐tributary linkages by mayfly migration help sustain salmonids in a warming river network

Animal migrations can link ecosystems across space. We discovered an aquatic insect that migrates between a river mainstem and its tributaries, and provides an important trophic subsidy for tributary predators. A mayfly, Ephemerella maculata, rears in a warm, sunlit productive river mainstem, then migrates as adults to cool, shaded unproductive tributaries where they oviposit and die. This migration tripled insect flux into a tributary for 1 month in summer. A manipulative field experiment showed that this E. maculata subsidy nearly tripled the growth of the young of the year steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the recipient tributary over the summer months, and was more important than terrestrial invertebrate subsidies, which have been considered the primary food source for predators in small, forested creeks. By delivering food subsidies from productive but warming river mainstems to cool but food‐limited tributaries, aquatic insect migrations could enhance resilience to cool‐water predators in warming river networks.     

Local environment,not local adaptation,drives leaf‐out phenology in common gardens along an elevational gradient in Acadia National Park,Maine

Premise of the Study

Climate‐driven changes in phenology are substantially affecting ecological relationships and ecosystem processes. The role of variation among species has received particular attention; for example, variation among species’ phenological responses to climate can disrupt trophic interactions and can influence plant performance. Variation within species in phenological responses to climate, however, has received much less attention, despite its potential role in ecological interactions and local adaptation to climate change.

Methods

We constructed three common gardens across an elevation gradient on Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park, Maine, to test population‐level responses in leaf‐out phenology in a reciprocal transplant experiment. The experiment included three native species: low bush blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium), sheep's laurel (Kalmia angustifolia), and three‐toothed cinquefoil (Sibbaldiopsis tridentata).

Key Results

Evidence for local adaptation of phenological response to temperature varied among the species, but was weak for all three. Rather, variation in phenological response to temperature appeared to be driven by local microclimate at each garden site and year‐to‐year variation in temperature.

Conclusions

Population‐level adaptations in leaf‐out phenology appear to be relatively unimportant for these species in Acadia National Park, perhaps a reflection of strong genetic mixing across elevations, or weak differences in selection on phenological response to spring temperatures at different elevations. These results concur with other observational data in Acadia and highlight the utility of experimental approaches to understand the importance of annual and local site variation in affecting phenology both among and within plant species.     

Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change

Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35‐year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming‐induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast‐growing period shortened during the mid‐growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long‐term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.     

Post‐glacial distribution of a Mongolian mayfly inferred from population genetic analysis

相似文献   

Regulation of nitrous oxide emission associated with benthic invertebrates

1. A number of freshwater invertebrate species emit N₂O, a greenhouse gas that is produced in their gut by denitrifying bacteria (direct N₂O emission). Additionally, benthic invertebrate species may contribute to N₂O emission from sediments by stimulating denitrification because of their bioirrigation behaviour (indirect N₂O emission). 2. Two benthic invertebrate species were studied to determine (i) the dependence of direct N₂O emission on the preferred diet of the animals, (ii) the regulation of direct N₂O emission by seasonally changing factors, such as body size, temperature and availability and (iii) the quantitative relationship between direct and indirect N₂O emission. 3. Larvae of the mayfly Ephemera danica, which prefer a bacteria‐rich detritus diet, emitted N₂O at rates of up to 90 pmol Ind.^?1 h^?1 under in situ conditions and 550 pmol Ind.^?1 h^?1 under laboratory conditions. In contrast, larvae of the alderfly Sialis lutaria, which prefer a bacteria‐poor carnivorous diet, emitted N₂O at invariably low rates of 0–20 pmol Ind.^?1 h^?1. The N₂O emission rate of E. danica larvae was positively correlated with seasonally changing factors (body size, temperature and availability). Direct N₂O emission by E. danica larvae was limited by low temperature in winter, larval development in spring and low availability in summer. 4. Both E. danica and the non‐emitting S. lutaria increased the total N₂O and N₂ emission from sediment in a density‐dependent manner. While N₂O directly emitted by benthic invertebrates can be partially consumed in the sediment (E. danica), non‐emitting species can still indirectly contribute to total N₂O emission from sediment (S. lutaria).     

Ecosystem engineering by beavers affects mayfly life histories

1. The North American beaver has been studied as a model ecosystem engineer for many decades. Previous studies have documented physical, chemical and biological impacts attributed to beaver engineering in both aquatic and terrestrial environments. This study focused on the effects of ecosystem engineering by beavers on life histories of a common mayfly and on the potential consequences for mayfly populations. 2. We studied 18 montane beaver ponds of varying size and shape in western Colorado near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. Our goal was to test whether variation in beaver pond morphology (pond size and shape) explains downstream changes in stream temperature, mayfly size and timing of emergence. 3. Downstream water temperatures varied predictably with pond morphology, being colder downstream of high‐head dams and warmer downstream of low‐head dams. Pond morphology was also a significant predictor of variation in the size of mature female Baetis bicaudatus (the most abundant mayfly), with larger females emerging downstream of high‐head dams and smaller females downstream of low‐head dams. The size of male B. bicaudatus was not significantly related to pond morphology or stream temperature. There was no relationship between pond morphology and variation in the timing of emergence of Baetis (males or females) between upstream and downstream reaches. 4. Our results have implications for the effects of beaver ponds on Baetis individual fitness because large Baetis females are more fecund. Therefore, predictable female size variation associated with beaver pond morphology makes it possible to model the effects of beaver activity on local contributions of Baetis to the regional pool of reproductive adults at the catchment scale. Additionally, predictable changes in the size of emerging mayflies may have important consequences for the magnitude of aquatic to terrestrial resource subsidies in beaver‐modified systems.     

Seed dormancy and germination in three Crocus ser. Verni species (Iridaceae): implications for evolution of dormancy within the genus

The aim of this work was to examine whether seed ecophysiological traits in three closely related Crocus species were associated with ecological niche differentiation and species divergence. Seeds of the temperate tetraploid cytotype of Crocus neapolitanus, the sub‐Mediterranean C. etruscus and the Mediterranean C. ilvensis were placed either on agar in the laboratory under different periods of simulated seasonal conditions or in nylon mesh bags buried outdoors to examine embryo growth, radicle and shoot emergence. In agreement with the phenology observed outdoors, in the laboratory embryos required a cool temperature (ca. 10 °C) to grow to full size (embryo length:seed length, E:S ratio ca. 0.75) but only after seeds received a warm stratification; radicle emergence then followed immediately (November). Shoot emergence is a temporally separated phase (March) that was promoted by cold stratification in C. neapolitanus while in the other two species this time lag was attributed to a slow continuous developmental process. These species have similar embryo growth and radicle phenology but differ in their degree of epicotyl dormancy, which is related to the length of local winter. Conclusions from laboratory experiments that only consider root emergence could be misleading; evaluating the phenology of both root and shoot emergence should be considered in order to demonstrate ecologically meaningful differences in germination behaviour and to develop effective propagation protocols. Although these taxa resulted from recent speciation processes, the outcomes suggest an early onset of adaptation to local ecological factors and that phylogeny may represent a significant constraint in the evolution and expression of seed traits in Crocus.     

Life cycle phenology of common detritivores from a temperate rainforest stream

The timing of life cycles, including growth rates, was determined for eight common species of detritivorous insects in a second-order stream in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. Six of the species (Zapada cinctipes, Z. haysi, Malenka californica, M. cornuta, Capnia sp., and Lepidostoma roafi) had simple, univoltine life cycles. The leuctrid stonefly Despaxia augusta has a 2-year life cycle, with an apparent egg diapause of about 6 months. The chironomid Brillia retifinis produced at least three generations per year. The major growth periods for the set of species considered here span the entire year. Adults of several species exhibited seasonal declines in size at emergence, but one species had larger adults as the emergence period proceeded. Closely related taxa had more similar life cycle timing than more distantly related species suggesting a degree of phylogenetic constraint in phenology of their life cycles. The influence of the timing of leaf drop on timing of life cycles for these animals does not fit with proposed scenarios based on fast and slow leaf processing rates.     

Changes in breeding phenology of eastern Ontario frogs over four decades

Global climate change has been implicated in phenological shifts for a variety of taxa. Amphibian species in particular are sensitive to changes in their environment due to their biphasic life history and restricted reproductive requirements. Previous research has shown that not all temperate amphibian species respond similarly to the same suite of climatic or environmental cues, nor are individual species necessarily uniform in their responses across their range. We examined both the timing of spring emergence and calling phenology of eight anuran species in southeastern Ontario, Canada, using an approximately 40‐year dataset of historical records of amphibian activity. Rana pipiens was the only species out of eight considered to emerge significantly earlier, by an estimated 22 days over four decades. Both R. pipiens and Bufo americanus have advanced initiation of calling over a four‐decade span significantly earlier by an estimated 37.2 and 19.2 days, respectively. Rana sylvatica showed a trend toward earlier emergence by 19 days, whereas we did not detect changes in emergence phenology for the remaining five species. This significant shift in breeding behavior for two species correlates to significant regional increases in spring temperatures of an estimated 2.7–2.8°C overall over four decades. Our study suggests that local temperature increases have affected the timing of emergence and the onset of calling activity in some Ontario anuran species. Global decline or range shifts ultimately may be related to changes in reproductive behavior and timing mediated by shifting climate.     

The forgotten season: the impact of autumn phenology on a specialist insect herbivore community on oak

1. Variation in spring phenology – like tree budburst – affects the structure of insect communities, but impacts of autumn phenology have been neglected. Many plant species have recently delayed their autumn phenology, and the timing of leaf senescence may be important for herbivorous insects. 2. This study explored how an insect herbivore community associated with Quercus robur is influenced by variation in autumn phenology. For this, schools were asked to record, across the range of oak in Sweden, the autumn phenology of oaks and to conduct a survey of the insect community. 3. To tease apart the relative impacts of climate from that of tree phenology, regional tree phenology was first modelled as a function of regional climate, and the tree‐specific deviation from this relationship was then used as the metric of relative tree‐specific phenology. 4. At the regional scale, a warmer climate postponed oak leaf senescence. This was also reflected in the insect herbivore community: six out of 15 taxa occurred at a higher incidence and five out of 18 taxa were more abundant, in locations with a warmer climate. Similarly, taxonomic richness and herbivory were higher in warmer locations. 5. Trees with a relatively late autumn phenology had higher abundances of leaf miners (Phyllonorycter spp.). This caused lower community diversity and evenness on trees with later autumn phenology. 6. The findings of the present study illustrate that both regional climate‐driven patterns and local variation in oak autumn phenology contribute to shaping the insect herbivore community. Community patterns may thus shift with a changing climate.     

Arrival and onset of breeding of three passerine birds in eastern Finland tracks climatic variation and phenology of insects

Anthropogenic climate change poses a challenge to the annual cycles of migratory birds. It has become urgent to understand whether migratory birds are able to advance their spring phenology when the climate is warming and whether they are able to adjust these phenological phases to the spring phenology in their breeding areas. In this work, we studied long‐term trends in first arrival and onset of breeding for three passerine birds in eastern Finland; the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, the common redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus and the great tit Parus major. The pied flycatcher and the common redstart are long‐distance migrants while the great tit is a partial migrant in Finland. We asked what environmental variables best explain the first arrival or onset of breeding, if there is evidence of ‘thermal delay’ (long‐term increase in the accumulated temperatures) at arrival or onset of breeding and if the interannual variation in the onset of breeding correlates with variation in spring phenology of local insects. We found that the pied flycatcher and the common redstart had advanced their first arrival (explained by increased temperatures at the migration route), but we found no long‐term change in the onset of breeding (explained by local temperatures). Also, the onset of breeding of the great tit is tracking local temperatures. We found no or only weak evidence of thermal delay at arrival or onset of breeding for any of the species. The onsets of breeding for the pied flycatcher and the great tit are also closely tracking the spring phenology of the local insects. The stable or increasing population sizes of all three species in Finland could be a result from their ability to effectively track climatic and environmental variation.     

Species-specific changes in the phenology and peak abundance of freshwater copepods in response to warm summers

SUMMARY 1. Climate warming is now widely recognised as a major factor influencing ecological processes in terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. Here, we investigated how a recent period of warm springs and summers has affected the population dynamics of various cyclopoid copepods in a central European lake. We compared (i) the duration of the period when the species were present in the water column, and (ii) their annual peak density in a period dominated by cool summers (1980–91) and one dominated by warm summers (1992–99). 2. The copepods under investigation were (i) Thermocyclops oithonoides, (ii) Mesocyclops leuckarti and (iii) Acanthocyclops robustus. These species differ in their thermal demand and seasonal phenology. Therefore, we hypothesised that enhanced summer warming would produce species‐specific responses. 3. The active phase of the copepods was usually prolonged both in spring and autumn. The earlier emergence of T. oithonoides (May in the warm years, July in the cool years) was probably related to high water temperature in late spring. The later onset of winter diapause in all species may have been coupled to raised temperature in late summer and autumn. 4. The annual peak abundance of the two thermophiles M. leuckarti and T. oithonoides increased significantly in the warm period. In the latter case, the increase was probably because of the early start to population growth. In contrast, M. leuckarti probably responded primarily to mid‐summer heat waves, in that its development time was likely to be short. We speculate that the increase in population size of both species resulted from the development of an additional generation (three instead of two cohorts per year). In contrast to these thermophiles, the coexisting A. robustus, which is adapted to a broader temperature range, did not respond noticeably to the warming trend. 5. In general, the nature of these responses to summer warming varied substantially among species, and depended on the detailed seasonal patterning of the warming. Our findings thus support the hypotheses that single species are sensitive indicators of climate change, and that the seasonal timing of warming is crucial in the context of climate–ecosystem relationships. 6. Moreover, our results add to the body of evidence that climate warming produces shifts in the seasonal phenology of aquatic and terrestrial organisms.     

Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm,Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25‐year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non‐Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton‐planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were T_mean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.     

Predicting insect phenology across space and time

Many species appear to be undergoing shifts in phenology, arising from climate change. To predict the direction and magnitude of future changes requires an understanding of how phenology depends on climatic variation. Species show large‐scale spatial variation in phenology (affected by differentiation among populations) as well as variation in phenology from year‐to‐year at the same site (affected predominantly by local plasticity). Teasing apart spatial and temporal variation in phenology should allow improved predictions of phenology under climate change. This study is the first to quantify large‐scale spatial and temporal variation in the entire emergence pattern of species, and to test the relationships found by predicting future data. We use data from up to 33 years of permanent transect records of butterflies in the United Kingdom to fit and test models for 15 butterfly species. We use generalized additive models to model spatial and temporal variation in the distribution of adult butterflies over the season, allowing us to capture changes in the timing of emergence peaks, relative sizes of peaks and/or number of peaks in a single analysis. We develop these models using data for 1973–2000, and then use them to predict phenologies from 2001 to 2006. For six of our study species, a model with only spatial variation in phenology is the best predictor of the future, implying that these species have limited plasticity. For the remaining nine species, the best predictions come from a model with both spatial and temporal variation in phenology; for four of these, growing degree‐days have similar effects over space and time, implying high levels of plasticity. The results show that statistical phenology models can be used to predict phenology shifts in a second time period, suggesting that it should be feasible to project phenologies under climate change scenarios, at least over modest time scales.