Historical changes in the distributions of invasive and endemic marine invertebrates are contrary to global warming predictions: the effects of decadal climate oscillations

Aim We tested whether a hybrid zone that has formed between an endemic and an invasive species of marine mussel has shifted poleward as expected under a general hypothesis of global warming or has responded instead to decadal climate oscillations. Location We sampled 15 locations on the coast of California, USA, that span the distributions of the two species of marine mussels and their hybrids. Methods Mussels were sampled in 2005–08 and analysed at three nuclear gene loci using methods identical to those used in a study a decade earlier in order to document the genetic architecture of this system. Change in the system was determined by comparing the frequency of species‐specific alleles and multi‐locus genotypes over the intervening decade. Climate variation over the same period was examined by comparing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), upwelling indices and sea surface temperature (SST) during and prior to the study period. Results Contrary to the general expectations of global warming we show that the highly invasive warm‐water mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone formed with the endemic species Mytilus trossulus has rapidly contracted southwards. Mytilus galloprovincialis declined in abundance over the northern third of its geographic range (c. 540 km) and has become rare or absent across the northern 200 km of the range it previously colonized during its initial invasion. The distribution of the native species M. trossulus has remained unchanged over the same time period. Main conclusions The large‐scale range shift in the warm‐water invasive species M. galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone it forms with M. trossulus has been exceptionally rapid and is in the opposite direction to that predicted by the global warming hypotheses. This shift, however, is consistent with decadal climate variation associated with the ENSO and the PDO. Since the biogeography of this system was first described in 1999, the PDO has shifted from a warm phase, dominated by frequent and large El Niño events, to a cold‐phase period, with minimal ENSO activity. Thus recent decadal climate variation can oppose global trends in average temperature and this study illustrates the need to integrate the effects of climate change across multiple time‐scales.     

Butterfly,seedling, sapling and tree diversity and composition in a fire‐affected Bornean rainforest

Abstract: Fire‐affected forests are becoming an increasingly important component of tropical landscapes. The impact of wildfires on rainforest communities is, however, poorly understood. In this study the density, species richness and community composition of seedlings, saplings, trees and butterflies were assessed in unburned and burned forest following the 1997/98 El Niño Southern Oscillation burn event in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. More than half a year after the fires, sapling and tree densities in the burned forest were only 2.5% and 38.8%, respectively, of those in adjacent unburned forest. Rarefied species richness and Shannon's H’ were higher in unburned forest than burned forest for all groups but only significantly so for seedlings. There were no significant differences in evenness between unburned and burned forest. Matrix regression and Akaike's information criterion (AIC) revealed that the best explanatory models of similarity included both burning and the distance between sample plots indicating that both deterministic processes (related to burning) and dispersal driven stochastic processes structure post‐disturbance rainforest assemblages. Burning though explained substantially more variation in seedling assemblage structure whereas distance was a more important explanatory variable for trees and butterflies. The results indicate that butterfly assemblages in burned forest were primarily derived from adjacent unburned rainforest, exceptions being species of grass‐feeders such as Orsotriaena medus that are normally found in open, disturbed areas, whereas burned forest seedling assemblages were dominated by typical pioneer genera, such as various Macaranga species that were absent or rare in unburned forest. Tree assemblages in the burned forest were represented by a subset of fire‐resistant species, such as Eusideroxylon zwageri and remnant dominant species from the unburned forest.     

A multi-scale perspective of water pulses in dryland ecosystems: climatology and ecohydrology of the western USA

In dryland ecosystems, the timing and magnitude of precipitation pulses drive many key ecological processes, notably soil water availability for plants and soil microbiota. Plant available water has frequently been viewed simply as incoming precipitation, yet processes at larger scales drive precipitation pulses, and the subsequent transformation of precipitation pulses to plant available water are complex. We provide an overview of the factors that influence the spatial and temporal availability of water to plants and soil biota using examples from western USA drylands. Large spatial- and temporal-scale drivers of regional precipitation patterns include the position of the jet streams and frontal boundaries, the North American Monsoon, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Topography and orography modify the patterns set up by the larger-scale drivers, resulting in regional patterns (10²–10⁶ km²) of precipitation magnitude, timing, and variation. Together, the large-scale and regional drivers impose important pulsed patterns on long-term precipitation trends at landscape scales, in which most site precipitation is received as small events (<5 mm) and with most of the intervals between events being short (<10 days). The drivers also influence the translation of precipitation events into available water via linkages between soil water content and components of the water budget, including interception, infiltration and runoff, soil evaporation, plant water use and hydraulic redistribution, and seepage below the rooting zone. Soil water content varies not only vertically with depth but also horizontally beneath versus between plants and/or soil crusts in ways that are ecologically important to different plant and crust types. We highlight the importance of considering larger-scale drivers, and their effects on regional patterns; small, frequent precipitation events; and spatio-temporal heterogeneity in soil water content in translating from climatology to precipitation pulses to the dryland ecohydrology of water availability for plants and soil biota.     

Long‐term change within a Neotropical forest: assessing differential functional and floristic responses to disturbance and drought

Disentangling the relative roles of biotic and abiotic forces influencing forest structure, function, and local community composition continues to be an important goal in ecology. Here, utilizing two forest surveys 20‐year apart from a Central American dry tropical forest, we assess the relative role of past disturbance and local climatic change in the form of increased drought in driving forest dynamics. We observe: (i) a net decrease in the number of trees; (ii) a decrease in total forest biomass by 7.7 Mg ha^?1 but when calculated on subquadrat basis the biomass per unit area did not change indicating scale sensitivity of forest biomass measures; (iii) that the decrease in the number of stems occurred mainly in the smallest sizes, and in more moist and evergreen habitats; (iv) that there has been an increase in the proportion of trees that are deciduous, compound leaved and are canopy species, and a concomitant reduction in trees that are evergreen, simple‐leaved, and understory species. These changes are opposite to predictions based on recovery from disturbance, and have resulted in (v) a uniform multivariate shift from a more mesic to a more xeric forest. Together, our results show that over relatively short time scales, community composition and the functional dominance may be more responsive to climate change than recovery to past disturbances. Our findings point to the importance of assessing proportional changes in forest composition and not just changes in absolute numbers. Our findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that tropical tree species exhibit differential sensitivity to changes in precipitation. Predicted future decreases in rainfall may result in quick differential shifts in forest function, physiognomy, and species composition. Quantifying proportional functional composition offers a basis for a predictive framework for how the structure, and diversity of tropical forests will respond to global change.     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

Spatiotemporal variability of soil respiration in a seasonal tropical forest

We monitored soil CO ₂ effluxes for over 3 years in a seasonally wet tropical forest in Central Panama using automated and manual measurements from 2013 to 2016. The measurements displayed a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. Temporal variability could be largely explained by surface soil water dynamics over a broad range of temporal scales. Soil moisture was responsible for seasonal cycles, diurnal cycles, intraseasonal variability such as rain‐induced pulses following dry spells, as well as suppression during near saturated conditions, and ultimately, interannual variability. Spatial variability, which remains largely unexplained, revealed an emergent role of forest structure in conjunction with physical drivers such as soil temperature and topography. Mean annual soil CO ₂ effluxes (±SE ) amounted to 1,613 (±59) gC  m^?2 year^?1 with an increasing trend in phase with an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO ) cycle which culminated with the strong 2015–2016 event. We attribute this trend to a relatively mild wet season during which soil saturated conditions were less persistent.     

A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes

Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23° of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Niña years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Niño years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Niña and El Niño events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.     

El Niño and dry season rainfall influence hostplant phenology and an annual butterfly migration from Neotropical wet to dry forests

We censused butterflies flying across the Panama Canal at Barro Colorado Island (BCI) for 16 years and butterfly hostplants for 8 years to address the question: What environmental factors influence the timing and magnitude of migrating Aphrissa statira butterflies? The peak migration date was earlier when the wet season began earlier and when soil moisture content in the dry season preceding the migration was higher. The peak migration date was also positively associated with peak leaf flushing of one hostplant (Callichlamys latifolia) but not another (Xylophragma seemannianum). The quantity of migrants was correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which influenced April soil moisture on BCI and total rainfall in the dry season. Both hostplant species responded to El Niño with greater leaf flushing, and the number of adults deriving from or laying eggs on those new leaves was greatest during El Niño years. The year 1993 was exceptional in that the number of butterflies migrating was lower than predicted by the El Niño event, yet the dry season was unusually wet for an El Niño year as well. Thus, dry season rainfall appears to be a primary driver of larval food production and population outbreaks for A. statira. Understanding how global climate cycles and local weather influence tropical insect migrations improves the predictability of ecological effects of climate change.     

Phenological and distributional shifts in ichthyoplankton associated with recent warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Understanding changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology of fish stocks in relation to climate change is critical for accurate ecosystem‐based fisheries management. Relocation and changes in timing of reproduction can have dramatic effects upon the success of fish populations and throughout the food web. During anomalously warm conditions (1–4°C above normal) in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 2015–2016, we documented shifts in timing and spawning location of several pelagic fish stocks based on larval fish samples. Total larval concentrations in the northern California Current (NCC) during winter (January–March) 2015 and 2016 were the highest observed since annual collections first occurred in 1998, primarily due to increased abundances of Engraulis mordax (northern anchovy) and Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine) larvae, which are normally summer spawning species in this region. Sardinops sagax and Merluccius productus (Pacific hake) exhibited an unprecedented early and northward spawning expansion during 2015–16. In addition, spawning duration was greatly increased for E. mordax, as the presence of larvae was observed throughout the majority of 2015–16, indicating prolonged and nearly continuous spawning of adults throughout the warm period. Larvae from all three of these species have never before been collected in the NCC as early in the year. In addition, other southern species were collected in the NCC during this period. This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014–2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure of the areas that the fish move into with unforeseen consequences.     

Predictive Mapping of Species Richness and Plant Species' Distributions of a Peruvian Fog Oasis Along an Altitudinal Gradient

Tropical arid to semi‐arid ecosystems are nearly as diverse as more humid forests and occupy large parts of the tropics. In comparison, however, they are vastly understudied. For instance, fog precipitation alone supports a unique vegetation formation, locally termed lomas, on coastal mountains in the Peruvian desert. To effectively protect these highly endemic and threatened ecosystems, we must increase our understanding of their diversity patterns in relation to environmental factors. Consequently, we recorded all vascular species from 100 random 4 × 4 m plots on the fog‐exposed southern slope of the mountain Mongón. We used topographic and remotely sensed covariates in statistical models to generate spatial predictions of alpha diversity and plant species' distribution probabilities. Altitude was the most important predictor in all models and may represent fog moisture levels. Other significant covariates in the models most likely refer also to water availability but on a finer spatial scale. Additionally, model‐based clustering revealed five altitudinal vegetation zones. This study contributes to a better spatial understanding of the biodiversity and spatial arrangement of vegetation belts of the largely unknown but highly unique lomas formations. Furthermore, mapping species richness and plant species' distributions could support a long‐needed lomas strategic conservation scheme.     

The impact of El Niño events on the pelagic food chain in the northern California Current

The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid‐rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to 10 tropical El Niño events. Measurable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven of 10 of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to 2 months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) events, but delayed (lag of 2–8 months) following ‘Modoki’ Central Pacific (CP) events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current.     

Modification of Vegetative Phenology in a Tropical Semi‐deciduous Forest by Abnormal Drought and Rain1

The control of vegetative phenology in tropical trees is not well understood. In dry forest trees, leaf abscission may be enhanced by advanced leaf age, increasing water stress, or declining photoperiod. Normally, it is impossible to dissect the effects of each of these variables because most leaves are shed during the early dry season when day length is near its minimum and leaves are relatively old. The 1997 El‐Niño Southern Oscillation caused a ten‐week long, severe abnormal drought from June to August in the semi‐deciduous forests of Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We monitored the effect of this drought on phenology and water status of trees with young leaves and compared modifications of phenology in trees of different functional types with the pattern observed during the regular dry season. Although deciduous trees at dry sites were severely water stressed (Ψstem < ‐7MPa) and their mesic leaves remained wilted for more than two months, these and all other trees retained all leaves during the abnormal drought. Many trees exchanged leaves three to four months earlier than normal during the wet period after the abnormal drought and shed leaves again during the regular dry season. Irrigation and an exceptional 70 mm rainfall during the mid‐dry season 1998/1999 caused bud break and flushing in all leafless trees except dormant stem succulents. The complex interactions between leaf age and water stress, the principal determinants of leaf abscission, were found to vary widely among trees of different functional types.     

Responses of an Australian freshwater turtle to drought‐flood cycles along a natural to urban gradient

Urban areas provide habitat for numerous native species, but life in towns and cities presents many challenges. The effect of climate on the ecology and the behaviour of non‐volant vertebrates inhabiting urban habitats have received little attention. In this study, we investigated demography, growth rates, movements and reproduction of a semi‐aquatic freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, along a natural to urban gradient during a period of relatively high rainfall (2011–2014) and compared this to a previous study in the same system during drought (2006–2007). In addition to changes in rainfall, urbanization increased considerably over the same time period and a pest‐exclusion fence was constructed to mitigate against urban hazards encroaching on the adjacent reserve. Turtles grew at similar rates, had similar abundances and sex ratios and had similar reproductive output across the gradient from urban to non‐urban sites during the wet period. Despite increasing urbanization, recruitment occurred at all sites and survivorship estimates were similar among sites. Turtles moved among wetlands at high rates and over long distances (6 km), underscoring the importance of movements in urban landscapes. Our results contrast with those for the same system during drought, when turtles were less abundant and grew slower in the nature reserve compared with the urban environment. Our results underscore the strong influence climate can have on population dynamics and resilience of species to changes brought about by urbanization. Further monitoring is required to understand the long‐term population responses of long‐lived species to drought cycles.     

Linking El Niño,local rainfall,and migration timing in a tropical migratory species

Current climate models project changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe in the coming years. Migratory species, which move to take advantage of seasonal climate patterns, are likely to be affected by these changes, and indeed, a number of studies have shown a relationship between changing climate and the migration timing of various species. However, these studies have almost exclusively focused on the effects of temperature change on species that inhabit temperate zones. Here, we explore the relationship between rainfall and migration timing in a tropical species, Gecarcoidea natalis (Christmas Island red crab). We find that the timing of the annual crab breeding migration is closely related to the amount of rain that falls during a ‘migration window’ period prior to potential egg release dates, which is in turn related to the Southern Oscillation Index, an atmospheric El Niño‐ Southern Oscillation Index. As reproduction in this species is conditional on successful migration, major changes in migration patterns could have detrimental consequences for the survival of the species. This study serves to broaden our understanding of the effects of climate change on migratory species and will hopefully inspire future work on rainfall and tropical migrations.     

Amazon drought and forest response: Largely reduced forest photosynthesis but slightly increased canopy greenness during the extreme drought of 2015/2016

Amazon droughts have impacted regional ecosystem functioning as well as global carbon cycling. The severe dry‐season droughts in 2005 and 2010, driven by Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, have been widely investigated in terms of drought severity and impacts on ecosystems. Although the influence of Pacific SST anomaly on wet‐season precipitation has been well recognized, it remains uncertain to what extent the droughts driven by Pacific SST anomaly could affect forest greenness and photosynthesis in the Amazon. Here, we examined the monthly and annual dynamics of forest greenness and photosynthetic capacity when Amazon ecosystems experienced an extreme drought in 2015/2016 driven by a strong El Niño event. We found that the drought during August 2015–July 2016 was one of the two most severe meteorological droughts since 1901. Due to the enhanced solar radiation during this drought, overall forest greenness showed a small increase, and 21.6% of forests even greened up (greenness index anomaly ≥1 standard deviation). In contrast, solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an indicator of vegetation photosynthetic capacity, showed a significant decrease. Responses of forest greenness and photosynthesis decoupled during this drought, indicating that forest photosynthesis could still be suppressed regardless of the variation in canopy greenness. If future El Niño frequency increases as projected by earth system models, droughts would result in persistent reduction in Amazon forest productivity, substantial changes in tree composition, and considerable carbon emissions from Amazon.     

Isolation and characterization of microsatellites in two tropical butterflies,Drupadia theda and Arhopala epimuta (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae)

Little is known about the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation‐induced fires on the genetic diversity of tropical rainforest species. Here, I report on the isolation and characterization of 10 microsatellite loci, five loci each, for two lycaenid butterfly species in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, namely Drupadia theda and Arhopala epimuta, which will be used to specifically study the impact of disturbance on genetic diversity. Microsatellite enrichment was carried out using streptavidin‐coated magnetic beads. Positive colonies were identified with the three‐primer polymerase chain reaction (PIMA). Cross‐species amplifications conducted both within and between genera were successful in 16 out of 20 tests.     

When to worry about the weather: role of tidal cycle in determining patterns of risk in intertidal ecosystems

Species range boundaries are determined by a variety of factors of which climate is one of the most influential. As a result, climate change is expected to have a profound effect on organisms and ecosystems. However, the impacts of weather and climate are frequently modified by multiple nonclimatic factors. Therefore, the role of these nonclimatic factors needs to be examined in order to understand and predict future change. Marine intertidal ecosystems are exposed to heat extremes during warm, sunny, midday low tides. Thus, the timing of low tide, a nonclimatic factor, determines the potential contact intertidal invertebrates and algae have with heat extremes. We developed a method that quantifies the daily risk of high temperature extremes in the marine intertidal using solar elevations and spatially continuous tidal predictions. The frequency of 'risky days' is variable over time and space along the Pacific Coast of North America. Results show that at some sites the percentage of risky days in June can vary by 30% across years. In order to do a detailed analysis, we selected San Francisco as a study site. In San Francisco, May is the month with the greatest frequency of risky days, even though September is the month with the greatest frequency of high air temperature, ≥30 °C. These results indicate that marine intertidal organisms can be protected from high temperature extremes due to the timing of tides and local weather patterns. In addition, annual fluctuations in tides influence the frequency of intertidal zone exposures to high temperature extremes. Peaks in risk for heat extremes in the intertidal zone occur every 18 years, the length of the tidal epoch. These results suggest that nonclimatic variables can complicate predictions of shifts in species ranges due to climate change, but that mechanistic approaches can be used to produce predictions that include these factors.     

Climate as a driver of population variability in breeding Gentoo Penguins Pygoscelis papua at the Falkland Islands

Detecting and predicting how populations respond to environmental variability are eminent challenges in conservation research and management. This is particularly true for wildlife populations at high latitudes, many of which demonstrate changes in population dynamics associated with global warming. The Falkland Islands (Southwest Atlantic) hold one of the largest Gentoo Penguin Pygoscelis papua populations in the world, representing c. 34% of the global population. The numbers of breeding Gentoo Penguins at the Falkland Islands have shown a high degree of inter‐annual variability since monitoring commenced in 1990. However, proximate causes of annual variability in breeding numbers have not been explored. Here we examine 21 years of Gentoo Penguin breeding surveys from the Falkland Islands and assess whether inter‐annual variability in the number of breeding pairs were correlated with proxies of environmental variability. There was a positive correlation between the number of breeding pairs and a broad‐scale climatic variation index, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In turn, the SOI was significantly correlated with spring sea surface temperature anomalies, indicating a more immediate atmospherically forced response to El Niño Southern Oscillation variability in the Southwest Atlantic than previously reported. However, we also describe a non‐linear response to environmental variability that may highlight foraging plasticity and/or the complexity of regional ecosystem interactions that operate across a range of different scales.     

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.