应用马尔可夫链模型预测长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠种群数量

依据1984～2004年21年在呼和浩特郊区对长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)和黑线仓鼠(Cricetulus barabansis)种群数量动态的调查数据,结合优选法(0.618法),应用加权马尔可夫链预测模型,建立了长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠种群数量预测模型。应用此模型分别预测了长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠2004年的种群数量,预测值与实测值相符,预测准确。同时,预测了未来三年(2005～2007年)长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠的种群数量。结果表明,此方法计算简便、准确、可靠,为鼠类种群数量的预测提供了新的方法。     

Population dynamics of Lucilia eximia (Dipt., Calliphoridae)

Abstract:  The theoretical dynamics of experimental populations of Lucilia eximia was investigated as an attempt to understand its population biology. Specifically the population dynamics of L. eximia was analysed by means of a mathematical model that incorporates fecundity and survival as density-dependent demographic parameters in discrete time. The sensitivity of these parameters to changes in the magnitude was also investigated. The mathematical model applied to experimental populations of L. eximia predicts a theoretical one-point equilibrium for immatures. The population dynamics of L. eximia is compared to the dynamics of Chrysomya species and Cochliomyia macellaria.     

Mechanisms of microtubule-based kinetochore positioning in the yeast metaphase spindle

It has been hypothesized that spatial gradients in kMT dynamic instability facilitate mitotic spindle formation and chromosome movement. To test this hypothesis requires the analysis of kMT dynamics, which have not been resolved at the single kMT level in living cells. The budding yeast spindle offers an attractive system in which to study kMT dynamics because, in contrast to animal cells, there is only one kMT per kinetochore. To visualize metaphase kMT plus-end dynamics in yeast, a strain containing a green fluorescent protein fusion to the kinetochore protein, Cse4, was imaged by fluorescence microscopy. Although individual kinetochores were not resolvable, we found that models of kMT dynamics could be evaluated by simulating the stochastic kMT dynamics and then simulating the fluorescence imaging of kMT plus-end-associated kinetochores. Statistical comparison of model-predicted images to experimentally observed images demonstrated that a pure dynamic instability model for kMT dynamics in the yeast metaphase spindle was unacceptable. However, when a temporally stable spatial gradient in the catastrophe or rescue frequency was added to the model, there was reasonable agreement between the model and the experiment. These results provide the first evidence of temporally stable spatial gradients of kMT catastrophe and/or rescue frequency in living cells.     

A geometric model of orientation tuning dynamics in visual neurons]

A geometrical model for the dynamics of orientation tuning of visual neurones was proposed, which makes it possible to study the dynamics of configuration, localization, and weight of excitatory and inhibitory subzones of the receptive field. The model reproduces typical patterns of orientation tuning dynamics, observed in neurophysiological experiments on cat visual cortex neurones. The parameters of the model (size and mutual position of excitatory and inhibitory zones of the receptive field, their weight, and dynamics type) were estimated that correspond to the main types of orientation tuning dynamics in natural conditions. It is shown that selective and acute tuning of neurones can be formed and/or sharpened by intracotrical inhibition, while the dynamics of preferred orientation is due to changes in the geometry of the inhibitory subzone of the receptive field.     

用动态模型研究森林群落中物种间的竞争

研究了以过程为基础的模型在物种竞争试验模型及实践中的应用。应用森林动态林窗模型模拟了群落内物种竞争规律。结果表明：同一群落中具有不同生物、生态学特征的物种竞争过程与环境条件有密切关系。由此确定,竞争是与外部条件密切相关的,不是一个单独稀量物种特征的指标;具有相似生物和生态学特性的物种,在森林植被发育过程中,存在绝对竞争,具有较弱更新与生长能力的物种,始终处于竞争劣热,不宜于在这样的群落中生长,而且有较强更新和生长的树种在群落中处于优势地位。     

Neuro-robotics study on integrative learning of proactive visual attention and motor behaviors

The current paper proposes a novel model for integrative learning of proactive visual attention and sensory-motor control as inspired by the premotor theory of visual attention. The model is characterized by coupling a slow dynamics network with a fast dynamics network and by inheriting our prior proposed multiple timescales recurrent neural networks model (MTRNN) that may correspond to the fronto-parietal networks in the cortical brains. The neuro-robotics experiments in a task of manipulating multiple objects utilizing the proposed model demonstrated that some degrees of generalization in terms of position and object size variation can be achieved by organizing seamless integration of the proactive object-related visual attention and the related sensory-motor control into a set of action primitives in the distributed neural activities appearing in the fast dynamics network. It was also shown that such action primitives can be combined in compositional ways in acquiring novel actions in the slow dynamics network. The experimental results presented substantiate the premotor theory of visual attention.     

暖温带落叶阔叶林动态变化的模拟研究

用森林动态林窗模型 FORET1模拟了暖温带落叶阔叶林的长期变化特征。模型参数取自暖温带地区长期森林研究和经营的历史数据 ,对过去数据中缺少的参数进行了实地测定 ,并用观测的数据对模型作了检验。结果表明模型能较好地模拟暖温带落叶阔叶林的长期动态变化特征。通过模拟可以看出 ,森林的净初级生产力没有明显变化规律且极度不稳定 ,峰值出现在30 a左右 ,相似于世界上其它地区森林动态格局变化 ,生物量格局呈循环状态变化 ,循环周期大致在 110 a左右。     

Computer modeling of nonlinear heart rate dynamics during train extracardial impulsation in the sinoatrial node

A computer model of excitation conduction in the heart has been employed to study the nonlinear heart rate dynamics under stress loads. The modeling was aimed to test the hypothesis explaining changes in the heart rate dynamics during nociceptive stress loads by the occurrence of train extracardial impulsation arriving at the sinoatrial node. The computer simulation shows that, with a particular set of parameters, the model imitates the dynamics of RR intervals observed in experiments. The present model provides a unified theoretical basis for further simulation of various types of ventricular disturbances under external extreme loads.     

农业害虫发生动态的Fuzzy优选识别模式及其应用

本文对山东省曲阜市１９８２－１９９４年二代棉铃虫发生动态的虫情与相应年份的气象资料进行了数量分析,应用Ｆｕｚｚｙ优选识别原理,建立了二代棉铃虫发生动态的Ｆｕｚｚｙ优选识别模式·对历史资料进行回代验证,其历史拟合率为 １００％．书 １９９５,１９９６ 两年的观测数据资料作为独立样本进行试报,预测结果与实际一致．本研究为农业害虫发生动态的预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法．     

Predictions of mechanical output of the human M. triceps surae on the basis of electromyographic signals: the role of stimulation dynamics

In order to assess the significance of the dynamics of neural control signals for the rise time of muscle moment, simulations of isometric and dynamic plantar flexion contractions were performed using electromyographic signals (EMG signals) of m. triceps surae as input. When excitation dynamics of the muscle model was optimized for an M-wave of the medial head of m. gastrocnemius (GM), the model was able to make reasonable predictions of the rise time of muscle moment during voluntary isometric plantar flexion contractions on the basis of voluntary GM EMG signals. The rise time of muscle moment in the model was for the greater part determined by the amplitude of the first EMG burst. For dynamic jumplike movements of the ankle joint, however, no relationship between rise time of muscle moment in the experiment and muscle moment predicted by the model on the basis of GM EMG signals was found. Since rise time of muscle moment varied over a small range for this movement, it cannot be completely excluded that stimulation dynamics plays a role in control of these simple single-joint movements.     

A bipedal compliant walking model generates periodic gait cycles with realistic swing dynamics

A simple spring mechanics model can capture the dynamics of the center of mass (CoM) during human walking, which is coordinated by multiple joints. This simple spring model, however, only describes the CoM during the stance phase, and the mechanics involved in the bipedality of the human gait are limited. In this study, a bipedal spring walking model was proposed to demonstrate the dynamics of bipedal walking, including swing dynamics followed by the step-to-step transition. The model consists of two springs with different stiffnesses and rest lengths representing the stance leg and swing leg. One end of each spring has a foot mass, and the other end is attached to the body mass. To induce a forward swing that matches the gait phase, a torsional hip joint spring was introduced at each leg. To reflect the active knee flexion for foot clearance, the rest length of the swing leg was set shorter than that of the stance leg, generating a discrete elastic restoring force. The number of model parameters was reduced by introducing dependencies among stiffness parameters. The proposed model generates periodic gaits with dynamics-driven step-to-step transitions and realistic swing dynamics. While preserving the mimicry of the CoM and ground reaction force (GRF) data at various gait speeds, the proposed model emulated the kinematics of the swing leg. This result implies that the dynamics of human walking generated by the actuations of multiple body segments is describable by a simple spring mechanics.     

Effects of Bacteriophages on the Population Dynamics of Four Strains of Pelagic Marine Bacteria

Viral lysis of specific bacterial populations has been suggested to be an important factor for structuring marine bacterioplankton communities. In the present study, the influence of bacteriophages on the diversity and population dynamics of four marine bacterial phage-host systems was studied experimentally in continuous cultures and theoretically by a mathematical model. By use of whole genome DNA hybridization toward community DNA, we analyzed the dynamics of individual bacterial host populations in response to the addition of their specific phage in continuous cultures of mixed bacterial assemblages. In these experiments, viral lysis had only temporary effects on the dynamics and diversity of the individual bacterial host species. Following the initial lysis of sensitive host cells, growth of phage-resistant clones of the added bacteria resulted in a distribution of bacterial strains in the phage-enriched culture that was similar to that in the control culture without phages after about 50-60 h incubation. Consequently, after a time frame of 5-10 generations after lysis, it was the interspecies competition rather than viral lysis of specific bacterial strains that was the driving force in the regulation of bacterial species composition in these experiments. The clonal diversity, on the other hand, was strongly influenced by viral activity, since the clonal composition of the four species in the phage-enriched culture changed completely from phage-sensitive to phage-resistant clones. The model simulation predicted that viral lysis had a strong impact on the population dynamics, the species composition, and the clonal composition of the bacterial community over longer time scales (weeks). However, according to the model, the overall density of bacteria in the system was not affected by phages, since resistant clones complemented the fluctuations caused by viral lysis. Based on the model analysis, we therefore suggest that viral lysis can have a strong influence on the dynamics of bacterial populations in planktonic marine systems.     

Outside-Host Growth of Pathogens Attenuates Epidemiological Outbreaks

Opportunist saprotrophic pathogens differ from obligatory pathogens due to their capability in host-independent growth in environmental reservoirs. Thus, the outside-host environment potentially influences host-pathogen dynamics. Despite the socio-economical importance of these pathogens, theory on their dynamics is practically missing. We analyzed a novel epidemiological model that couples outside-host density-dependent growth to host-pathogen dynamics. Parameterization was based on columnaris disease, a major hazard in fresh water fish farms caused by saprotrophic Flavobacterium columnare. Stability analysis and numerical simulations revealed that the outside-host growth maintains high proportion of infected individuals, and under some conditions can drive host extinct. The model can show stable or cyclic dynamics, and the outside-host growth regulates the frequency and intensity of outbreaks. This result emerges because the density-dependence stabilizes dynamics. Our analysis demonstrates that coupling of outside-host growth and traditional host-pathogen dynamics has profound influence on disease prevalence and dynamics. This also has implications on the control of these diseases.     

Evaluation of HIV-1 kinetic models using quantitative discrimination analysis

MOTIVATION: Since the identification of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) over twenty years ago, many mathematical models of HIV dynamics have been proposed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate intracellular and intercellular scale HIV models that best described the dynamics of viral and cell titers of a person, where parameters were determined using typically available patient data. In this case, 'best' was defined as the model most capable of describing experimental patient data and was determined by Bayesian-based model discrimination analysis and the ability to provide realistic results. RESULTS: Twenty models of HIV-1 viral dynamics were initially evaluated to determine whether parameters could be obtained from readily available clinical data from established HIV-1 patients with stable disease. Based on this analysis, three models were chosen for further examination and comparison. Parameters were estimated using experimental data from a cohort of 338 people monitored for up to 2484 days. The models were evaluated using a Bayesian technique to determine which model was most probable. The model ultimately selected as most probable was overwhelmingly favored relative to the remaining two models, and it accounted for uninfected cells, infected cells and cytotoxic T lymphocyte dynamics. The authors developed a fourth model for comparison purposes by combining the features of the original three models. Parameters were estimated for the new model and the statistical analysis was repeated for all four models. The model that was initially favored was selected again upon model discrimination analysis. CONTACT: srivasta@engr.uconn.edu.     

Fuzzy subset approach in coupled population dynamics of blowflies

This paper is a study on the population dynamics of blowflies employing a density-dependent, non-linear mathematical model and a coupled population formalism. In this study, we investigated the coupled population dynamics applying fuzzy subsets to model the population trajectory, analyzing demographic parameters such as fecundity, survival, and migration. The main results suggest different possibilities in terms of dynamic behavior produced by migration in coupled populations between distinct environments and the rescue effect generated by the connection between populations. It was possible to conclude that environmental heterogeneity can play an important role in blowfly metapopulation systems. The implications of these results for population dynamics of blowflies are discussed.     

Mass attack of trees by Ips typographus induced by sex-specific pheromone: a model of attack dynamics

A model of attack dynamics on a single tree under mass attack by the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is developed from earlier studies of pheromone production and response of the flying population to the pheromone signal. The model is explored for different numbers and sex-ratios of pioneer beetles and responding beetles. Both numbers of pioneers and responders were important for the dynamics, while the sex-ratio of pioneers was less important. A decreased proportion of males among the responding beetles was important for the result of the model. In the early stage of the attack the model predictions of both numbers and sex-ratio of beetles landing were similar to examples from naturally mass-attacked trees, although the attack proceeded more slowly than in the field. Several aspects of the attack dynamics, such as density-regulation of the number of attacks on the tree, as observed in the field, were not predicted by the model. Gaps in the knowledge of the chemical ecology of the tree-insect relation, such as qualitative change in odours from the tree, spacing mechanisms on the bark surface, and mortality due to host resistence, are pointed out with help of the model.     

Computational modeling of combined cell population dynamics and oxygen transport in engineered tissue subject to interstitial perfusion

This work presents a computational model of tissue growth under interstitial perfusion inside a tissue engineering bioreactor. The model accounts both for the cell population dynamics, using a model based on cellular automata, and for the hydrodynamic microenvironment imposed by the bioreactor, using a model based on the Lattice–Boltzmann equation and the convection-diffusion equation. The conditions of static culture versus perfused culture were compared, by including the population dynamics along with oxygen diffusion, convective transport and consumption. The model is able to deal with arbitrary complex geometries of the spatial domain; in the present work, the domain modeled was the void space of a porous scaffold for tissue-engineered cartilage. The cell population dynamics algorithm provided results which qualitatively resembled population dynamics patterns observed in experimental studies, and these results were in good quantitative agreement with previous computational studies. Simulation of oxygen transport and consumption showed the fundamental contribution of convective transport in maintaining a high level of oxygen concentration in the whole spatial domain of the scaffold. The model was designed with the aim to be computationally efficient and easily expandable, i.e. to allow straightforward implementability of further models of complex biological phenomena of increasing scientific interest in tissue engineering, such as chemotaxis, extracellular matrix deposition and effect of mechanical stimulation.     

Density-dependent dispersal may explain the mid-season crash in some aphid populations

Aphid population dynamics during the season show a characteristic pattern with rapid increase in numbers at the beginning followed by a sudden drop in the middle of the season. This pattern is usually associated with predation and/or change in food quality during the summer. By developing a mechanistic model of aphid population dynamics we show that this pattern can arise from density-dependent dispersal behaviour of aphids. The dynamics produced by the model were similar to those observed in real populations of the alder aphid (Pterocallis alni). The two mechanisms required for these oscillations to arise were the perception of density through the number of contacts with other individuals and the inter-generational transfer of information (the maternal effect). Both mechanisms are examples of delayed density-dependence and, therefore, this study adds to the evidence that delayed density-dependence might cause complex population dynamics. To reproduce the seasonal dynamics of the alder aphid with the model, the maternal effect was essential, indicating that this could be an important factor in alder aphid dynamics. According to our model, external regulations (e.g., predation and/or change in food quality) were not required to explain the highly oscillatory population dynamics of aphids during a season.     

Hepatic albumin and urea synthesis: The mathematical modelling of the dynamics of [14C]carbonate-derived guanidine-labelled arginine in the isolated perfused rat liver.

A mathematical model was constructed to define the dynamics of incorporation of radioactivity into urea carbon and the guanidine carbon of arginine in plasma albumin after the rapid intraportal-venous administration of Na214CO3 in the isolated perfused rat liver. 2. The model was formulated in terms of compartmental analysis and additional experiments were designed to provide further information on subsystem dynamics and to discriminate between alternative model structures. 3. Evidence for the rapid-time-constant of labelling of intracellular arginine was provided by precursor-product analysis of precursor [14C]carboante and product [14C]urea in the perfusate. 4. Compartmental analysis of the dynamics of newly synthesized urea was based on the fate of exogenous [13C]urea, endogenous [14C]urea and the accumulation of [12C]urea in perfusate water, confirming the early completion of urea carbon labelling, the absence of continuing synthesis of labelled urea, and the presence of a small intrahepatic urea-delay pool. 5. Analysis of the perfusate dynamics of endogenously synthesized and exogenously administered [6-14C]arginine indicated that although the capacity for extrahepatic formation of [14C]-urea exists, little or no arginine formed within the intrahepatic urea cycle was transported out of the liver. However, the presence of a rapidly turning-over intrahepatic arginine pool was confirmed. 6. On the basis of these subsystem analyses it was possible to offer feasible estimations for the parameters of the mathematical model. However, it was not possible to stimulate the form and magnitude of the dynamics of newly synthesized labelled urea and albumin which were simultaneously observed after administration of [14C]carbonate on the basis of a preliminary model which postulated that both products were derived from a single hepatic pool of [16-14C]arginine. On the other hand these observed dynamics could be satisfied to a two-compartment arginine model, which also provided an explanation for discrepancies observed between albumin synthesis measured radioisotopically and immunologically. This was based on a relative overestimation of [14C]urea specific radioactivity resulting from the rapid dynamics of [14C]carbonate and the [14C]urea subsystem relative to the labelled albumin subsystem. The effects of arginine compartmentalization could be minimized in the model by minor slowing of the rate of [14C]carbonate turnover or by constant infusion of [14C]carbonate, both of which permitted valid determination of albumin-synthesis rates.