Self-deception in an evolutionary game

From the perspective of philosophy, the idea of humans lying to themselves seems irrational and maladaptive, if even possible. However, the paradigm of cognitive modularity admits the possibility of self-deception. Trivers argues that self-deception can increase fitness by improving the effectiveness of inter-personal deception. Ramachandran criticizes Trivers' conjecture, arguing that the costs of self-deception outweigh its benefits. We first modify a well-known cognitive modularity model of Minsky to formalize a cognitive model of self-deception. We then use Byrne's multi-dimensional dynamic character meta-model to integrate the cognitive model into an evolutionary hawk-dove game in order to investigate Trivers' and Ramachandran's conjectures. By mapping the influence of game circumstances into cognitive states, and mapping the influence of multiple cognitive modules into player decisions, our cognitive definition of self-deception is extended to a behavioral definition of self-deception. Our cognitive modules, referred to as the hunger and fear daemons, assess the benefits and the cost of competition and generate player beliefs. Daemon-assessment of encounter benefits and costs may lead to inter-daemonic conflict, that is, ambivalence, about whether or not to fight. Player-types vary in the manner by which such inter-daemonic conflict is resolved, and varieties of self-deception are modeled as type-specific conflict-resolution mechanisms. In the display phase of the game, players signal to one another and update their beliefs before finally committing to a decision (hawk or dove). Self-deception can affect player beliefs, and hence player actions, before or after signaling. In support of Trivers' conjecture, the self-deceiving types do outperform the non-self-deceiving type. We analyse the sensitivity of this result to parameters of the cognitive model, specifically the cognitive resolution of the players and the influence of player signals on co-player beliefs.     

Nash equilibria for an evolutionary language game

We study an evolutionary language game that describes how signals become associated with meaning. In our context, a language, L, is described by two matrices: the P matrix contains the probabilities that for a speaker certain objects are associated with certain signals, while the Q matrix contains the probabilities that for a listener certain signals are associated with certain objects. We define the payoff in our evolutionary language game as the total amount of information exchanged between two individuals. We give a formal classification of all languages, L(P, Q), describing the conditions for Nash equilibria and evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS). We describe an algorithm for generating all languages that are Nash equilibria. Finally, we show that starting from any random language, there exists an evolutionary trajectory using selection and neutral drift that ends up with a strategy that is a strict Nash equilibrium (or very close to a strict Nash equilibrium). Received: 1 March 2000 / Published online: 3 August 2000     

The evolutionary language game: an orthogonal approach

Evolutionary game dynamics have been proposed as a mathematical framework for the cultural evolution of language and more specifically the evolution of vocabulary. This article discusses a model that is mutually exclusive in its underlying principals with some previously suggested models. The model describes how individuals in a population culturally acquire a vocabulary by actively participating in the acquisition process instead of passively observing and communicate through peer-to-peer interactions instead of vertical parent-offspring relations. Concretely, a notion of social/cultural learning called the naming game is first abstracted using learning theory. This abstraction defines the required cultural transmission mechanism for an evolutionary process. Second, the derived transmission system is expressed in terms of the well-known selection-mutation model defined in the context of evolutionary dynamics. In this way, the analogy between social learning and evolution at the level of meaning-word associations is made explicit. Although only horizontal and oblique transmission structures will be considered, extensions to vertical structures over different genetic generations can easily be incorporated. We provide a number of simplified experiments to clarify our reasoning.     

The evolutionary language game.

We explore how evolutionary game dynamics have to be modified to accomodate a mathematical framework for the evolution of language. In particular, we are interested in the evolution of vocabulary, that is associations between signals and objects. We assume that successful communication contributes to biological fitness: individuals who communicate well leave more offspring. Children inherit from their parents a strategy for language learning (a language acquisition device). We consider three mechanisms whereby language is passed from one generation to the next: (i) parental learning: children learn the language of their parents; (ii) role model learning: children learn the language of individuals with a high payoff; and (iii) random learning: children learn the language of randomly chosen individuals. We show that parental and role model learning outperform random learning. Then we introduce mistakes in language learning and study how this process changes language over time. Mistakes increase the overall efficacy of parental and role model learning: in a world with errors evolutionary adaptation is more efficient. Our model also provides a simple explanation why homonomy is common while synonymy is rare.     

Multi-behavioral strategies in a predator–prey game: an evolutionary algorithm analysis

Behavioral games between predators and prey often involve two sub-games: 'pre-encounter' games affecting the rate of encounter between predators and prey (e.g. predator–prey space games, Sih 2005 ), and 'post-encounter' games that influence the outcome of encounters (e.g. waiting games at prey refugia, Hugie 2003 , and games of vigilance, Brown et al. 1999 ). Most models, however, focus on only one or the other of these two sub-games.
I investigated a multi-behavioral game between predators and prey that integrated both pre-encounter and post-encounter behaviors. These behaviors included landscape-scale movements by predators and prey, a type of prey vigilance that increases immediately after an encounter and then decays over time ('ratcheting vigilance'), and predator management of prey vigilance. I analyzed the game using a computer-based evolutionary algorithm. This algorithm embedded an individual-based model of ecological interactions within a dynamic adaptive process of mutation and selection. I investigated how evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) varied with the predators' learning ability, killing efficiency, density and rate of movement. I found that when predators learn prey location, random prey movement can be an ESS. Increased predator killing efficiency reduced prey movement, but only if the rate of predator movement was low. Predators countered ratcheting vigilance by delaying their follow-up attacks; however, this delay was reduced in the presence of additional predators. The interdependence of pre-and post-encounter behaviors revealed by the evolutionary algorithm suggests an intricate co-evolution of multi-behavioral predator–prey behavioral strategies.     

Reaction networks and evolutionary game theory

The powerful mathematical tools developed for the study of large scale reaction networks have given rise to applications of this framework beyond the scope of biochemistry. Recently, reaction networks have been suggested as an alternative way to model social phenomena. In this “socio-chemical metaphor” molecular species play the role of agents’ decisions and their outcomes, and chemical reactions play the role of interactions among these decisions. From here, it is possible to study the dynamical properties of social systems using standard tools of biochemical modelling. In this work we show how to use reaction networks to model systems that are usually studied via evolutionary game theory. We first illustrate our framework by modeling the repeated prisoners’ dilemma. The model is built from the payoff matrix together with assumptions of the agents’ memory and recognizability capacities. The model provides consistent results concerning the performance of the agents, and allows for the examination of the steady states of the system in a simple manner. We further develop a model considering the interaction among Tit for Tat and Defector agents. We produce analytical results concerning the performance of the strategies in different situations of agents’ memory and recognizability. This approach unites two important theories and may produce new insights in classical problems such as the evolution of cooperation in large scale systems.     

A theory for the evolutionary game

We present an evolutionary game theory. This theory differs in several respects from current theories related to Maynard Smith's pioneering work on evolutionary stable strategies (ESS). Most current work deals with two person matrix games. For these games the strategy set is finite. We consider evolutionary games which are defined over a continuous strategy set and which permit any number of players. Matrix games are included as a bilinear continuous game. However, under our definition, such games will not posses an ESS on the interior of the strategy set. We extend previous work on continuous games by developing an ESS definition which permits the ESS to be composed of a coalition of several strategies. This definition requires that the coalition must not only be stable with respect to perturbations in strategy frequencies which comprise the coalition, but the coalition must also satisfy the requirement that no mutant strategies can invade. Ecological processes are included in the model by explicitly considering population size and density dependent selection.     

Fixation probabilities in evolutionary game dynamics with a two-strategy game in finite diploid populations

Fixation processes in evolutionary game dynamics in finite diploid populations are investigated. Traditionally, frequency dependent evolutionary dynamics is modeled as deterministic replicator dynamics. This implies that the infinite size of the population is assumed implicitly. In nature, however, population sizes are finite. Recently, stochastic processes in finite populations have been introduced in order to study finite size effects in evolutionary game dynamics. One of the most significant studies on evolutionary dynamics in finite populations was carried out by Nowak et al. which describes “one-third law” [Nowak, et al., 2004. Emergence of cooperation and evolutionary stability in finite populations. Nature 428, 646-650]. It states that under weak selection, if the fitness of strategy α is greater than that of strategy β when α has a frequency , strategy α fixates in a β-population with selective advantage. In their study, it is assumed that the inheritance of strategies is asexual, i.e. the population is haploid. In this study, we apply their framework to a diploid population that plays a two-strategy game with two ESSs (a bistable game). The fixation probability of a mutant allele in this diploid population is derived. A “three-tenth law” for a completely recessive mutant allele and a “two-fifth law” for a completely dominant mutant allele are found; other cases are also discussed.     

Bet-hedging as an evolutionary game: the trade-off between egg size and number

Bet-hedging theory addresses how individuals should optimize fitness in varying and unpredictable environments by sacrificing mean fitness to decrease variation in fitness. So far, three main bet-hedging strategies have been described: conservative bet-hedging (play it safe), diversified bet-hedging (don’t put all eggs in one basket) and adaptive coin flipping (choose a strategy at random from a fixed distribution). Within this context, we analyse the trade-off between many small eggs (or seeds) and few large, given an unpredictable environment. Our model is an extension of previous models and allows for any combination of the bet-hedging strategies mentioned above. In our individual-based model (accounting for both ecological and evolutionary forces), the optimal bet-hedging strategy is a combination of conservative and diversified bet-hedging and adaptive coin flipping, which means a variation in egg size both within clutches and between years. Hence, we show how phenotypic variation within a population, often assumed to be due to non-adaptive variation, instead can be the result of females having this mixed strategy. Our results provide a new perspective on bet-hedging and stress the importance of extreme events in life history evolution.     

Unpredictability induced by unfocused games in evolutionary game dynamics

Evolutionary game theory is a basis of replicator systems and has applications ranging from animal behavior and human language to ecosystems and other hierarchical network systems. Most studies in evolutionary game dynamics have focused on a single game, but, in many situations, we see that many games are played simultaneously. We construct a replicator equation with plural games by assuming that a reward of a player is a simple summation of the reward of each game. Even if the numbers of the strategies of the games are different, its dynamics can be described in one replicator equation. We here show that when players play several games at the same time, the fate of a single game cannot be determined without knowing the structures of the whole other games. The most absorbing fact is that even if a single game has a ESS (evolutionary stable strategy), the relative frequencies of strategies in the game does not always converge to the ESS point when other games are played simultaneously.     

Pairwise comparison and selection temperature in evolutionary game dynamics

Recently, the frequency-dependent Moran process has been introduced in order to describe evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations. Here, an alternative to this process is investigated that is based on pairwise comparison between two individuals. We follow a long tradition in the physics community and introduce a temperature (of selection) to account for stochastic effects. We calculate the fixation probabilities and fixation times for any symmetric 2 x 2 game, for any intensity of selection and any initial number of mutants. The temperature can be used to gauge continuously from neutral drift to the extreme selection intensity known as imitation dynamics. For some payoff matrices the distribution of fixation times can become so broad that the average value is no longer very meaningful.     

Why Darwin would have loved evolutionary game theory

Humans have marvelled at the fit of form and function, the way organisms'' traits seem remarkably suited to their lifestyles and ecologies. While natural selection provides the scientific basis for the fit of form and function, Darwin found certain adaptations vexing or particularly intriguing: sex ratios, sexual selection and altruism. The logic behind these adaptations resides in frequency-dependent selection where the value of a given heritable phenotype (i.e. strategy) to an individual depends upon the strategies of others. Game theory is a branch of mathematics that is uniquely suited to solving such puzzles. While game theoretic thinking enters into Darwin''s arguments and those of evolutionists through much of the twentieth century, the tools of evolutionary game theory were not available to Darwin or most evolutionists until the 1970s, and its full scope has only unfolded in the last three decades. As a consequence, game theory is applied and appreciated rather spottily. Game theory not only applies to matrix games and social games, it also applies to speciation, macroevolution and perhaps even to cancer. I assert that life and natural selection are a game, and that game theory is the appropriate logic for framing and understanding adaptations. Its scope can include behaviours within species, state-dependent strategies (such as male, female and so much more), speciation and coevolution, and expands beyond microevolution to macroevolution. Game theory clarifies aspects of ecological and evolutionary stability in ways useful to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, niche construction and ecosystem engineering. In short, I would like to think that Darwin would have found game theory uniquely useful for his theory of natural selection. Let us see why this is so.     

A security mechanism based on evolutionary game in fog computing

Fog computing is a distributed computing paradigm at the edge of the network and requires cooperation of users and sharing of resources. When users in fog computing open their resources, their devices are easily intercepted and attacked because they are accessed through wireless network and present an extensive geographical distribution. In this study, a credible third party was introduced to supervise the behavior of users and protect the security of user cooperation. A fog computing security mechanism based on human nervous system is proposed, and the strategy for a stable system evolution is calculated. The MATLAB simulation results show that the proposed mechanism can reduce the number of attack behaviors effectively and stimulate users to cooperate in application tasks positively.     

Mistakes allow evolutionary stability in the repeated prisoner's dilemma game

The repeated prisoner's dilemma game has been widely used in analyses of the evolution of reciprocal altruism. Recently it was shown that no pure strategy could be evolutionarily stable in the repeated prisoner's dilemma. Here I show that if there is always some probability that individuals will make a mistake, then a pure strategy can be evolutionarily stable provided that it is "strong perfect equilibria" against itself. To be a strong perfect equilibrium against itself, a strategy must be the best response to itself after every possible sequence of behavior. I show that both unconditional defection and a modified version of tit-for-tat have this property.     

Evolutionary stability and quasi-stationary strategy in stochastic evolutionary game dynamics

Stochastic evolutionary game dynamics for finite populations has recently been widely explored in the study of evolutionary game theory. It is known from the work of Traulsen et al. [2005. Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701] that the stochastic evolutionary dynamics approaches the deterministic replicator dynamics in the limit of large population size. However, sometimes the limiting behavior predicted by the stochastic evolutionary dynamics is not quite in agreement with the steady-state behavior of the replicator dynamics. This paradox inspired us to give reasonable explanations of the traditional concept of evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in the context of finite populations. A quasi-stationary analysis of the stochastic evolutionary game dynamics is put forward in this study and we present a new concept of quasi-stationary strategy (QSS) for large but finite populations. It is shown that the consistency between the QSS and the ESS implies that the long-term behavior of the replicator dynamics can be predicted by the quasi-stationary behavior of the stochastic dynamics. We relate the paradox to the time scales and find that the contradiction occurs only when the fixation time scale is much longer than the quasi-stationary time scale. Our work may shed light on understanding the relationship between the deterministic and stochastic methods of modeling evolutionary game dynamics.     

The role of IDH1 mutated tumour cells in secondary glioblastomas: an evolutionary game theoretical view

Recent advances in clinical medicine have elucidated two significantly different subtypes of glioblastoma which carry very different prognoses, both defined by mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH-1). The mechanistic consequences of this mutation have not yet been fully clarified, with conflicting opinions existing in the literature; however, IDH-1 mutation may be used as a surrogate marker to distinguish between primary and secondary glioblastoma multiforme (sGBM) from malignant progression of a lower grade glioma. We develop a mathematical model of IDH-1 mutated secondary glioblastoma using evolutionary game theory to investigate the interactions between four different phenotypic populations within the tumor: autonomous growth, invasive, glycolytic, and the hybrid invasive/glycolytic cells. Our model recapitulates glioblastoma behavior well and is able to reproduce two recent experimental findings, as well as make novel predictions concerning the rate of invasive growth as a function of vascularity, and fluctuations in the proportions of phenotypic populations that a glioblastoma will experience under different microenvironmental constraints.