Climate alters the movement ecology of a non‐migratory bird

Global climate change is causing increased climate extremes threatening biodiversity and altering ecosystems. Climate is comprised of many variables including air temperature, barometric pressure, solar radiation, wind, relative humidity, and precipitation that interact with each other. As movement connects various aspects of an animal''s life, understanding how climate influences movement at a fine‐temporal scale will be critical to the long‐term conservation of species impacted by climate change. The sedentary nature of non‐migratory species could increase some species risk of extirpation caused by climate change. We used Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) as a model to better understand the relationship between climate and the movement ecology of a non‐migratory species at a fine‐temporal scale. We collected movement data on bobwhite from across western Oklahoma during 2019–2020 and paired these data with meteorological data. We analyzed movement in three different ways (probability of movement, hourly distance moved, and sinuosity) using two calculated movement metrics: hourly movement (displacement between two consecutive fixes an hour apart) and sinuosity (a form of tortuosity that determines the amount of curvature of a random search path). We used generalized linear‐mixed models to analyze probability of movement and hourly distance moved, and used linear‐mixed models to analyze sinuosity. The interaction between air temperature and solar radiation affected probability of movement and hourly distance moved. Bobwhite movement increased as air temperature increased beyond 10°C during low solar radiation. During medium and high solar radiation, bobwhite moved farther as air temperature increased until 25–30°C when hourly distance moved plateaued. Bobwhite sinuosity increased as solar radiation increased. Our results show that specific climate variables alter the fine‐scale movement of a non‐migratory species. Understanding the link between climate and movement is important to determining how climate change may impact a species’ space use and fitness now and in the future.     

Flyway‐scale analysis reveals that the timing of migration in wading birds is becoming later

1. Understanding the implications of climate change for migratory animals is paramount for establishing how best to conserve them. A large body of evidence suggests that birds are migrating earlier in response to rising temperatures, but many studies focus on single populations of model species.
2. Migratory patterns at large spatial scales may differ from those occurring in single populations, for example because of individuals dispersing outside of study areas. Furthermore, understanding phenological trends across species is vital because we need a holistic understanding of how climate change affects wildlife, especially as rates of temperature change vary globally.
3. The life cycles of migratory wading birds cover vast latitudinal gradients, making them particularly susceptible to climate change and, therefore, ideal model organisms for understanding its effects. Here, we implement a novel application of changepoint detection analysis to investigate changes in the timing of migration in waders at a flyway scale using a thirteen‐year citizen science dataset (eBird) and determine the influence of changes in weather conditions on large‐scale migratory patterns.
4. In contrast to most previous research, our results suggest that migration is getting later in both spring and autumn. We show that rates of change were faster in spring than autumn in both the Afro‐Palearctic and Nearctic flyways, but that weather conditions in autumn, not in spring, predicted temporal changes in the corresponding season. Birds migrated earlier in autumn when temperatures increased rapidly, and later with increasing headwinds.
5. One possible explanation for our results is that migration is becoming later due to northward range shifts, which means that a higher proportion of birds travel greater distances and therefore take longer to reach their destinations. Our findings underline the importance of considering spatial scale when investigating changes in the phenology of migratory bird species.

     

Estimation of fitness from energetics and life‐history data: An example using mussels

Changing environments have the potential to alter the fitness of organisms through effects on components of fitness such as energy acquisition, metabolic cost, growth rate, survivorship, and reproductive output. Organisms, on the other hand, can alter aspects of their physiology and life histories through phenotypic plasticity as well as through genetic change in populations (selection). Researchers examining the effects of environmental variables frequently concentrate on individual components of fitness, although methods exist to combine these into a population level estimate of average fitness, as the per capita rate of population growth for a set of identical individuals with a particular set of traits. Recent advances in energetic modeling have provided excellent data on energy intake and costs leading to growth, reproduction, and other life‐history parameters; these in turn have consequences for survivorship at all life‐history stages, and thus for fitness. Components of fitness alone (performance measures) are useful in determining organism response to changing conditions, but are often not good predictors of fitness; they can differ in both form and magnitude, as demonstrated in our model. Here, we combine an energetics model for growth and allocation with a matrix model that calculates population growth rate for a group of individuals with a particular set of traits. We use intertidal mussels as an example, because data exist for some of the important energetic and life‐history parameters, and because there is a hypothesized energetic trade‐off between byssus production (affecting survivorship), and energy used for growth and reproduction. The model shows exactly how strong this trade‐off is in terms of overall fitness, and it illustrates conditions where fitness components are good predictors of actual fitness, and cases where they are not. In addition, the model is used to examine the effects of environmental change on this trade‐off and on both fitness and on individual fitness components.     

Optimal avian migration: A dynamic model of fuel stores and site use

Birds migrating between widely separated wintering and breeding grounds may choose among a number of potential stopover sites by using different itineraries. Our aim is to predict the optimal migration schedule in terms of (1) rates of fuel deposition, (2) departure fuel loads and (3) stopover site use, when only a handful of such sites are available. We assume that reproductive success depends on the date and fuel load at arrival on the breeding grounds. On migration, the birds face a trade-off between gaining fuel and avoiding predation. To allow the optimal decision at any given moment to depend on the fuel load and the location of the bird, as well as on unpredictability in conditions, we employed stochastic dynamic programming. This technique assumes that the birds know the probability distribution of conditions in all sites, but not the particular realization they will encounter. We examined the consequences of varying aspects of the model, like (1) the shape of the relationship between arrival date and fitness, (2) the presence of stochasticity in fuel deposition rates and wind conditions, and (3) the nature of predation (i.e. whether predation risk depends on the fuel load of the birds or their feeding intensity). Optimal fuel deposition rates are predicted to be constant if there are either only predation risks of maintaining stores or only risks of acquiring fuel stores. If only fuel acquisition is risky, fuel deposition rates can be below maximum, especially if there also is an intermediate best arrival time at the breeding ground. The fuel deposition rate at a site then depends not just on the site's quality but on the qualities of all visited sites. In contrast, rates of fuel deposition are not constant if both the acquisition and the maintenance of fuel stores carry risk. Optimal departure fuel loads are just enough to reach the next site if the environment is deterministic and are simply set by the energetic cost of covering the distance. As with time-minimizing models, more fuel than necessary to reach a site is only deposited under very restricted circumstances. Such overloads are more likely to be deposited if either fuel gains or expenditure are stochastic. The size of overloads is then determined by the variance in fuel gain at the target site and the worst possible conditions during flight. Site use is modified by differences in predation risk between sites and differences in fuel deposition rates. An expression derived to predict site use under time minimization provides a good approximation in state-dependent models. In some cases, the possibility of starvation may influence optimal decisions, even when the probability of starvation under the optimal policy is low. This effect of starvation has also been found in other contexts. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cell‐to‐cell and type‐to‐type heterogeneity of signaling networks: insights from the crowd

Recent technological developments allow us to measure the status of dozens of proteins in individual cells. This opens the way to understand the heterogeneity of complex multi‐signaling networks across cells and cell types, with important implications to understand and treat diseases such as cancer. These technologies are, however, limited to proteins for which antibodies are available and are fairly costly, making predictions of new markers and of existing markers under new conditions a valuable alternative. To assess our capacity to make such predictions and boost further methodological development, we organized the Single Cell Signaling in Breast Cancer DREAM challenge. We used a mass cytometry dataset, covering 36 markers in over 4,000 conditions totaling 80 million single cells across 67 breast cancer cell lines. Through four increasingly difficult subchallenges, the participants predicted missing markers, new conditions, and the time‐course response of single cells to stimuli in the presence and absence of kinase inhibitors. The challenge results show that despite the stochastic nature of signal transduction in single cells, the signaling events are tightly controlled and machine learning methods can accurately predict new experimental data.     

Insect distribution in response to climate change based on a model: Review of function and use of CLIMEX

The significant dependence of agricultural productivity on pest control requires pest distribution predictions at an early stage of pest invasion. Because pest cycles are critically affected by climate, climate is one of the most important factors for predicting an invasive pest. CLIMEX is a highly effective tool that can predict potential geographical species distributions, and test the regional suitability for a target species' habitat based on data including climate change scenarios. CLIMEX has been recently used in Europe, North America, China and Australia, among others. However, for modeling species distributions in Korea, the use of the model has been limited to date. This study aimed to first introduce the function and application of CLIMEX by reviewing important studies using this model. Second, we investigated previous studies using the model simulation to demonstrate the practical applicability of CLIMEX for the agricultural sector, and its use in forecasting.     

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species (Diphascon pingue, Adropion scoticum, and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.     

Migratory movements of waterfowl in Central Asia and avian influenza emergence: sporadic transmission of H5N1 from east to west

Waterfowl in the genera Anas and Tadorna are suspected as vectors in the long‐distance transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. The former Soviet Republics of Central Asia are situated at an important migratory crossroads for these and other species of birds that bridges regions where the disease is prevalent. However, waterfowl movements through Central Asia are poorly quantified. In this study, historical data derived from over 80 years of bird ringing are combined with recent satellite tracking data to delineate migration routes, movement chronology and habitat use patterns of waterfowl in relation to H5N1 outbreak locations. Results confirm migratory linkage between breeding and moulting areas in northern Kazakhstan and southern Siberia, with non‐breeding areas in the Caspian, Black and eastern Mediterranean Sea basins, as well as with South Asia. However, unlike the situation in neighbouring regions, most notably western China, H5N1 outbreaks have not been recurrent in Central Asia after they were first reported during summer 2005 and spring 2006. These findings have implications in relation to potential sampling biases, species‐specific variation in migratory behaviour and continuing regional H5N1 transmission risks.     

Introduction. Integration of ecology and endocrinology in avian reproduction: a new synthesis

Birds are some of the most familiar organisms of global ecosystems. Changes in the visibility and abundance of birds are therefore excellent indicators of population and physiological responses to habitat changes and are a major focus for public concern about detrimental environmental changes. In order to understand how birds respond to these challenges, it is essential to determine how the environment affects reproduction under natural conditions. The continuum from environmental variables (cues) to reproductive life-history traits depends upon a cascade of neural and physiological processes that determine the extent and rate at which birds will be able to adapt to changes in their environment. For a full understanding of this ability to adapt, ecologists and endocrinologists need to collaborate and build a common framework. The objective of this theme issue is to bring together a series of papers addressing how evolutionary ecologists and endocrinologists can collaborate directly using avian reproduction as a model system. First, we address the need to integrate ecology and endocrinology and what benefits to biological knowledge will be gained. The papers collected in this issue represent a new synthesis of ecology and endocrinology as discussed in three E-BIRD workshops. The three main foci are trade-offs and constraints, maternal effects and individual variation. Authors within each group present ecological and endocrinological aspects of their topics and many go on to outline testable hypotheses. Finally, we discuss where the major problems remain and how this issue points out where these need collaborative efforts of ecologists and endocrinologists. Specific challenges are raised to future researchers to break through intellectual barriers and explore new frontiers. This framework of topics will ultimately apply to all taxa because the principles involved are universal and hopefully will have direct application to programmes integrating organisms and genes throughout biological sciences.     

Effects of blood parasite infections on spatiotemporal migration patterns and activity budgets in a long‐distance migratory passerine

How blood parasite infections influence the migration of hosts remains a lively debated issue as past studies found negative, positive, or no response to infections. This particularly applies to small birds, for which monitoring of detailed migration behavior over a whole annual cycle has been technically unachievable so far. Here, we investigate how bird migration is influenced by parasite infections. To this end, we tracked great reed warblers (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) with multisensor loggers, characterized general migration patterns as well as detailed flight bout durations, resting times and flight heights, and related these to the genus and intensity of their avian haemosporidian infections. We found migration distances to be shorter and the onset of autumn migration to be delayed with increasing intensity of blood parasite infection, in particular for birds with Plasmodium and mixed‐genus infections. Additionally, the durations of migratory flight bout were prolonged for infected compared to uninfected birds. But since severely infected birds and particularly birds with mixed‐genus infections had shorter resting times, initial delays seemed to be compensated for and the timing in other periods of the annual cycle was not compromised by infection. Overall, our multisensor logger approach revealed that avian blood parasites have mostly subtle effects on migratory performance and that effects can occur in specific periods of the year only.     

Challenging a 15‐year‐old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds

Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta‐analysis, and a meta‐analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short‐ and long‐distance migrants from the constant‐effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = ?0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%–6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = ?0.13, SE = 0.019).     

High‐resolution imaging sheds new light on a multi‐tier symbiotic partnership between a “walking” solitary coral,a sipunculan,and a bivalve from East Africa

Marine symbioses are integral to the persistence of ecosystem functioning in coral reefs. Solitary corals of the species Heteropsammia cochlea and Heterocyathus aequicostatus have been observed to live in symbiosis with the sipunculan worm Aspidosiphon muelleri muelleri, which inhabits a cavity within the coral, in Zanzibar (Tanzania). The symbiosis of these photosymbiotic corals enables the coral holobiont to move, in fine to coarse unconsolidated substrata, a process termed as “walking.” This allows the coral to escape sediment cover in turbid conditions which is crucial for these light‐dependent species. An additional commensalistic symbiosis of this coral‐worm holobiont is found between the Aspidosiphon worm and the cryptoendolithic bivalve Jousseaumiella sp., which resides within the cavity of the coral skeleton. To understand the morphological alterations caused by these symbioses, interspecific relationships, with respect to the carbonate structures between these three organisms, are documented using high‐resolution imaging techniques (scanning electron microscopy and µCT scanning). Documenting multi‐layered symbioses can shed light on how morphological plasticity interacts with environmental conditions to contribute to species persistence.     

Genetic variation in productivity of foundation riparian species at the edge of their distribution: implications for restoration and assisted migration in a warming climate

We examined the hypothesis that genotypic variation among populations of commonly co‐occurring phreatophytic trees (Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii) and the shrub (Salix exigua) regulates aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) at a hot site at the edge of the species’ distribution. We used a provenance trial in which replicated genotypes from populations varying in mean annual temperature were transplanted to a common garden adjacent to the Lower Colorado River in southeastern California. The garden environment represented an extreme maximum temperature for the study species. Four major findings emerged: (1) Genotypic variation in ANPP was significant for all species with broad‐sense heritability (H²) across populations of 0.11, 0.13, and 0.10 for P. fremontii, S. gooddingii, and S. exigua, respectively, and within‐population H² ranging from 0.00 to 0.25, 0.00 to 0.44, and 0.02 to 0.21, respectively. (2) Population ANPP decreased linearly as mean annual maximum temperature (MAMT) transfer distance increased for both P. fremontii (r² = 0.64) and S. gooddingii (r² = 0.37), whereas it did not change for S. exigua; (3) Populations with similar MAMT to that of the common garden were 1.5 and 1.2 times more productive than populations with 5.0 °C MAMT transfer distances for P. fremontii and S. gooddingii, respectively; and (4) Variation in regression slopes among species for the relationship between ANPP and MAMT indicate species‐specific responses to temperature. As these plant species characterize a threatened habitat type and support a diverse community that includes endangered species, ecosystem restoration programs should consider using both local genotypes and productive genotypes from warmer environments to maximize productivity of riparian ecosystems in the face of global climate change.     

Seed dispersal by lizards on a continental‐shelf island: predicting interspecific variation in seed rain based on plant distribution and lizard movement patterns

Aim We estimated the patterns of seed deposition provided by the eyed lizard, Timon lepidus, and evaluated whether these patterns can be generalized across plant species with different traits (fruit and seed size) and spatial distributions. Location Monteagudo Island, Atlantic Islands National Park (north‐western Spain). Methods We radio‐tracked seven lizards for 14 days and estimated their home ranges using fixed kernels. We also geo‐referenced all fruit‐bearing individuals of four plant species dispersed by eyed lizards in the study area (Corema album, Osyris alba, Rubus ulmifolius and Tamus communis), measured the passage time of their seeds through the lizard gut, and estimated seed predation in four habitats (bare sand, grassland, shrub and gorse). Seed dispersal kernels were estimated using a combination of these data and were combined with seed predation probability maps to incorporate post‐dispersal seed fate (‘seed survival kernels’). Results Median seed gut‐passage times were around 52–98 h, with maximum values up to 250 h. Lizards achieved maximum displacement in their home ranges within 24–48 h. Seed predation was high (80–100% of seeds in 2 months), particularly under Corema shrub and gorse. Seed dispersal kernels showed a common pattern, with two areas of preferential seed deposition, but the importance of these varied among plant species. Interspecific differences among dispersal kernels were strongly reduced by post‐dispersal seed predation; hence, seed survival kernels of the different plant species showed high auto‐ and pairwise‐correlations at small distances (< 50 m). As a result, survival to post‐dispersal seed predation increased with dispersal distance for O. alba and T. communis, but not for C. album. Main conclusions Seed dispersal by lizards was determined primarily by the interaction between the dispersers’ home ranges and the position of the fruit‐bearing plants. As a result, seed rain shared a common template, but showed considerable variation among species, determined by their specific spatial context. Seed predation increased the spatial coherence of the seed rain of the different species, but also resulted in contrasting relationships between seed survival and dispersal distance, which may be of importance for the demographic and evolutionary processes of the plants.     

Effects of warming and nutrients on sediment community respiration in shallow lakes: an outdoor mesocosm experiment

1. Climate warming is expected to change respiration in shallow lakes but to an extent that depends on nutrient state. 2. We measured sediment respiration (SR) over the season in the dark on intact sediment cores taken from a series of flow‐through, heated and unheated, nutrient‐enriched and unenriched mesocosms. The natural seasonal temperature cycle ranged from 2 to 20 °C in the unheated mesocosms. In the heated mesocosms, the temperature was raised 4–6 °C above ambient temperatures, depending on season, following the A2 climate change scenario downscaled to the local position of the mesocosms, but enlarged by 50%. We further measured ecosystem respiration (ER) in the mesocosms based on semi‐continuous oxygen measurements. 3. SR changed over the season and was approximately ten times higher in summer than in winter. SR showed no clear response to warming in the nutrient‐enriched treatment, while it increased with warming in the unenriched mesocosms which also had lower fish densities. 4. ER was not affected by artificial warming or nutrient enrichment, but it was ten times higher in summer than in winter. 5. SR contributed 24–32% to ER. The SR:ER ratio was generally stimulated by warming and was higher in winter than in summer, especially in the nutrient‐enriched mesocosms. 6. Our results indicate that climate warming may lead to higher SR, especially in clear, macrophyte‐dominated systems. Moreover, the contribution of SR to ER will increase with higher temperatures, but decrease as the winters get shorter.     

Influence of simulated climate change and eutrophication on three‐spined stickleback populations: a large scale mesocosm experiment

1. Shallow lakes and their ectothermic inhabitants are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climatic warming. These impacts are likely to depend on nutrient loading, especially if the combination of warming and eutrophication leads to severe hypoxia. 2. To investigate effects of realistic warming and nutrient loading on a fish species with high tolerance of warming and hypoxia, we observed population changes and timing of reproduction of three‐spined sticklebacks in 24 outdoor shallow freshwater ecosystems with combinations of temperature (ambient and ambient +4 °C) and three nutrient treatments over 16 months. 3. Warming reduced stickleback population biomass by 60% (population size by 76%) and nutrient‐addition reduced biomass by about 80% (population size 95%). Nutrients and warming together resulted in extinction of the stickleback populations. These losses were mainly attributed to the increased likelihood of severe hypoxia in heated and nutrient‐addition mesocosms. 4. Warming of nutrient‐rich waters can thus have dire consequences for freshwater ectotherm populations. The loss even of a hardy fish suggests a precarious future for many less tolerant species in such eutrophic systems under current climate change predictions.     

Patterns and drivers of intraspecific variation in avian life history along elevational gradients: a meta‐analysis

Elevational gradients provide powerful natural systems for testing hypotheses regarding the role of environmental variation in the evolution of life‐history strategies. Case studies have revealed shifts towards slower life histories in organisms living at high elevations yet no synthetic analyses exist of elevational variation in life‐history traits for major vertebrate clades. We examined (i) how life‐history traits change with elevation in paired populations of bird species worldwide, and (ii) which biotic and abiotic factors drive elevational shifts in life history. Using three analytical methods, we found that fecundity declined at higher elevations due to smaller clutches and fewer reproductive attempts per year. By contrast, elevational differences in traits associated with parental investment or survival varied among studies. High‐elevation populations had shorter and later breeding seasons, but longer developmental periods implying that temporal constraints contribute to reduced fecundity. Analyses of clutch size data, the trait for which we had the largest number of population comparisons, indicated no evidence that phylogenetic history constrained species‐level plasticity in trait variation associated with elevational gradients. The magnitude of elevational shifts in life‐history traits were largely unrelated to geographic (altitude, latitude), intrinsic (body mass, migratory status), or habitat covariates. Meta‐population structure, methodological issues associated with estimating survival, or processes shaping range boundaries could potentially explain the nature of elevational shifts in life‐history traits evident in this data set. We identify a new risk factor for montane populations in changing climates: low fecundity will result in lower reproductive potential to recover from perturbations, especially as fewer than half of the species experienced higher survival at higher elevations.