Preservational bias controls the fossil record of pterosaurs

Pterosaurs, a Mesozoic group of flying archosaurs, have become a focal point for debates pertaining to the impact of sampling biases on our reading of the fossil record, as well as the utility of sampling proxies in palaeo‐diversity reconstructions. The completeness of the pterosaur fossil specimens themselves potentially provides additional information that is not captured in existing sampling proxies, and might shed new light on the group's evolutionary history. Here we assess the quality of the pterosaur fossil record via a character completeness metric based on the number of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for all known skeletons of 172 valid species, with averaged completeness values calculated for each geological stage. The fossil record of pterosaurs is observed to be strongly influenced by the occurrence and distribution of Lagerstätten. Peaks in completeness correlate with Lagerstätten deposits, and a recovered correlation between completeness and observed diversity is rendered non‐significant when Lagerstätten species are excluded. Intervals previously regarded as potential extinction events are shown to lack Lagerstätten and exhibit low completeness values: as such, the apparent low diversity in these intervals might be at least partly the result of poor fossil record quality. A positive correlation between temporal patterns in completeness of Cretaceous pterosaurs and birds further demonstrates the prominent role that Lagerstätten deposits have on the preservation of smaller bodied organisms, contrasting with a lack of correlation with the completeness of large‐bodied sauropodomorphs. However, we unexpectedly find a strong correlation between sauropodomorph and pterosaur completeness within the Triassic–Jurassic, but not the Cretaceous, potentially relating to a shared shift in environmental preference and thus preservation style through time. This study highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between various taphonomic controls when correcting for sampling bias, and provides additional evidence for the prominent role of sampling on observed patterns in pterosaur macroevolution.     

‘Fish’ (Actinopterygii and Elasmobranchii) diversification patterns through deep time

Actinopterygii (ray‐finned fishes) and Elasmobranchii (sharks, skates and rays) represent more than half of today's vertebrate taxic diversity (approximately 33000 species) and form the largest component of vertebrate diversity in extant aquatic ecosystems. Yet, patterns of ‘fish’ evolutionary history remain insufficiently understood and previous studies generally treated each group independently mainly because of their contrasting fossil record composition and corresponding sampling strategies. Because direct reading of palaeodiversity curves is affected by several biases affecting the fossil record, analytical approaches are needed to correct for these biases. In this review, we propose a comprehensive analysis based on comparison of large data sets related to competing phylogenies (including all Recent and fossil taxa) and the fossil record for both groups during the Mesozoic–Cainozoic interval. This approach provides information on the ‘fish’ fossil record quality and on the corrected ‘fish’ deep‐time phylogenetic palaeodiversity signals, with special emphasis on diversification events. Because taxonomic information is preserved after analytical treatment, identified palaeodiversity events are considered both quantitatively and qualitatively and put within corresponding palaeoenvironmental and biological settings. Results indicate a better fossil record quality for elasmobranchs due to their microfossil‐like fossil distribution and their very low diversity in freshwater systems, whereas freshwater actinopterygians are diverse in this realm with lower preservation potential. Several important diversification events are identified at familial and generic levels for elasmobranchs, and marine and freshwater actinopterygians, namely in the Early–Middle Jurassic (elasmobranchs), Late Jurassic (actinopterygians), Early Cretaceous (elasmobranchs, freshwater actinopterygians), Cenomanian (all groups) and the Paleocene–Eocene interval (all groups), the latter two representing the two most exceptional radiations among vertebrates. For each of these events along with the Cretaceous‐Paleogene extinction, we provide an in‐depth review of the taxa involved and factors that may have influenced the diversity patterns observed. Among these, palaeotemperatures, sea‐levels, ocean circulation and productivity as well as continent fragmentation and environment heterogeneity (reef environments) are parameters that largely impacted on ‘fish’ evolutionary history, along with other biotic constraints.     

Ten more years of discovery: revisiting the quality of the sauropodomorph dinosaur fossil record

Spatiotemporal changes in fossil specimen completeness can bias our understanding of a group's evolutionary history. The quality of the sauropodomorph fossil record was assessed a decade ago, but the number of valid species has since increased by 60%, and 17% of the taxa from that study have since undergone taxonomic revision. Here, we assess how 10 years of additional research has changed our outlook on the group's fossil record. We quantified the completeness of all 307 sauropodomorph species currently considered valid using the skeletal completeness metric, which calculates the proportion of a complete skeleton preserved for each taxon. Taxonomic and stratigraphic age revisions, rather than new species, are the drivers of the most significant differences between the current results and those of the previous assessment. No statistical differences appeared when we use our new dataset to generate temporal completeness curves based solely on taxa known in 2009 or 1999. We now observe a severe drop in mean completeness values across the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary that never recovers to pre-Cretaceous levels. Explaining this pattern is difficult, as we find no convincing evidence that it is related to environmental preferences or body size changes. Instead, it might result from: (1) reduction of terrestrial fossil preservation space due to sea level rise; (2) ecological specificities and relatively high diagnosability of Cretaceous species; and/or (3) increased sampling of newly explored sites with many previously unknown taxa. Revisiting patterns in this manner allows us to test the longevity of conclusions made in previous quantitative studies.     

HOW DO GEOLOGICAL SAMPLING BIASES AFFECT STUDIES OF MORPHOLOGICAL EVOLUTION IN DEEP TIME? A CASE STUDY OF PTEROSAUR (REPTILIA: ARCHOSAURIA) DISPARITY

A fundamental contribution of paleobiology to macroevolutionary theory has been the illumination of deep time patterns of diversification. However, recent work has suggested that taxonomic diversity counts taken from the fossil record may be strongly biased by uneven spatiotemporal sampling. Although morphological diversity (disparity) is also frequently used to examine evolutionary radiations, no empirical work has yet addressed how disparity might be affected by uneven fossil record sampling. Here, we use pterosaurs (Mesozoic flying reptiles) as an exemplar group to address this problem. We calculate multiple disparity metrics based upon a comprehensive anatomical dataset including a novel phylogenetic correction for missing data, statistically compare these metrics to four geological sampling proxies, and use multiple regression modeling to assess the importance of uneven sampling and exceptional fossil deposits (Lagerstätten). We find that range‐based disparity metrics are strongly affected by uneven fossil record sampling, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously. The robustness of variance‐based metrics to sample size and geological sampling suggests that they can be more confidently interpreted as reflecting true biological signals. In addition, our results highlight the problem of high levels of missing data for disparity analyses, indicating a pressing need for more theoretical and empirical work.     

Extant‐only comparative methods fail to recover the disparity preserved in the bird fossil record

Most extant species are in clades with poor fossil records, and recent studies of comparative methods show they have low power to infer even highly simplified models of trait evolution without fossil data. Birds are a well‐studied radiation, yet their early evolutionary patterns are still contentious. The fossil record suggests that birds underwent a rapid ecological radiation after the end‐Cretaceous mass extinction, and several smaller, subsequent radiations. This hypothesized series of repeated radiations from fossil data is difficult to test using extant data alone. By uniting morphological and phylogenetic data on 604 extant genera of birds with morphological data on 58 species of extinct birds from 50 million years ago, the “halfway point” of avian evolution, I have been able to test how well extant‐only methods predict the diversity of fossil forms. All extant‐only methods underestimate the disparity, although the ratio of within‐ to between‐clade disparity does suggest high early rates. The failure of standard models to predict high early disparity suggests that recent radiations are obscuring deep time patterns in the evolution of birds. Metrics from different models can be used in conjunction to provide more valuable insights than simply finding the model with the highest relative fit.     

The completeness of the fossil record of mesozoic birds: implications for early avian evolution

Many palaeobiological analyses have concluded that modern birds (Neornithes) radiated no earlier than the Maastrichtian, whereas molecular clock studies have argued for a much earlier origination. Here, we assess the quality of the fossil record of Mesozoic avian species, using a recently proposed character completeness metric which calculates the percentage of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for each taxon. Estimates of fossil record quality are plotted against geological time and compared to estimates of species level diversity, sea level, and depositional environment. Geographical controls on the avian fossil record are investigated by comparing the completeness scores of species in different continental regions and latitudinal bins. Avian fossil record quality varies greatly with peaks during the Tithonian-early Berriasian, Aptian, and Coniacian-Santonian, and troughs during the Albian-Turonian and the Maastrichtian. The completeness metric correlates more strongly with a 'sampling corrected' residual diversity curve of avian species than with the raw taxic diversity curve, suggesting that the abundance and diversity of birds might influence the probability of high quality specimens being preserved. There is no correlation between avian completeness and sea level, the number of fluviolacustrine localities or a recently constructed character completeness metric of sauropodomorph dinosaurs. Comparisons between the completeness of Mesozoic birds and sauropodomorphs suggest that small delicate vertebrate skeletons are more easily destroyed by taphonomic processes, but more easily preserved whole. Lagerst?tten deposits might therefore have a stronger impact on reconstructions of diversity of smaller organisms relative to more robust forms. The relatively poor quality of the avian fossil record in the Late Cretaceous combined with very patchy regional sampling means that it is possible neornithine lineages were present throughout this interval but have not yet been sampled or are difficult to identify because of the fragmentary nature of the specimens.     

The mosasaur fossil record through the lens of fossil completeness

The quality of the fossil record affects our understanding of macroevolutionary patterns. Palaeodiversity is filtered through geological and human processes; efforts to correct for these biases are part of a debate concerning the role of sampling proxies and standardization in biodiversity models. We analyse the fossil record of mosasaurs in terms of fossil completeness as a measure of fossil quality, using three novel, correlating metrics of fossil completeness and 4083 specimens. A new qualitative measure of character completeness (QCM) correlates with the phylogenetic character completeness metric. Mean completeness by species decreases with specimen count; average completeness by substage varies significantly. Mean specimen completeness is higher for species‐named fossils than those identified to genus and family. We consider the effect of tooth‐only specimens. Importantly, we find that completeness of species does not correlate with completeness of specimens. Completeness varies by palaeogeography: North American specimens show higher completeness than those from Eurasia and Gondwana. These metrics can be used to identify exceptional preservation; specimen completeness varies significantly by both formation and lithology. The Belgian Ciply Formation displays the highest completeness; clay lithologies show higher completeness values. Neither species diversity nor sea level correlates significantly with fossil completeness. A generalized least squares (GLS) analysis using multiple variables agrees with this result, but reveals two variables with significant predictive value for modelling averaged diversity: sea level, and mosasaur and plesiosaur‐bearing formations (the latter is redundant with diversity). Mosasaur completeness is not driven by sea level, nor does completeness limit the mosasaur diversity signal.     

Major issues in the origins of ray‐finned fish (Actinopterygii) biodiversity

Ray‐finned fishes (Actinopterygii) dominate modern aquatic ecosystems and are represented by over 32000 extant species. The vast majority of living actinopterygians are teleosts; their success is often attributed to a genome duplication event or morphological novelties. The remainder are ‘living fossils’ belonging to a few depauperate lineages with long‐retained ecomorphologies: Polypteriformes (bichirs), Holostei (bowfin and gar) and Chondrostei (paddlefish and sturgeon). Despite over a century of systematic work, the circumstances surrounding the origins of these clades, as well as their basic interrelationships and diagnoses, have been largely mired in uncertainty. Here, I review the systematics and characteristics of these major ray‐finned fish clades, and the early fossil record of Actinopterygii, in order to gauge the sources of doubt. Recent relaxed molecular clock studies have pushed the origins of actinopterygian crown clades to the mid‐late Palaeozoic [Silurian–Carboniferous; 420 to 298 million years ago (Ma)], despite a diagnostic body fossil record extending only to the later Mesozoic (251 to 66 Ma). This disjunct, recently termed the ‘Teleost Gap’ (although it affects all crown lineages), is based partly on calibrations from potential Palaeozoic stem‐taxa and thus has been attributed to poor fossil sampling. Actinopterygian fossils of appropriate ages are usually abundant and well preserved, yet long‐term neglect of this record in both taxonomic and systematic studies has exacerbated the gaps and obscured potential synapomorphies. At the moment, it is possible that later Palaeozoic‐age teleost, holostean, chondrostean and/or polypteriform crown taxa sit unrecognized in museum drawers. However, it is equally likely that the ‘Teleost Gap’ is an artifact of incorrect attributions to extant lineages, overwriting both a post‐Palaeozoic crown actinopterygian radiation and the ecomorphological diversity of stem‐taxa.     

Quantifying the completeness of the bat fossil record

Bats (Chiroptera) are one of the most successful extant mammalian orders, uniquely capable of powered flight and laryngeal echolocation. The timing and evidence for evolution of their novel adaptations have been difficult to ascertain from the fossil record due to chronological gaps and the fragmentary nature of most fossil bat material. Here, we quantify the quality of the bat fossil record using skeletal and character completeness metrics, which respectively document for each taxon what proportion of a complete skeleton is preserved, and the proportion of phylogenetic characters that can be scored. Completeness scores were collected for 441 valid fossil bat species in 167 genera from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. All metrics record similar temporal patterns: peak completeness in the Lutetian stage reflects the presence of Lagerstätten, while subsequent stages have very low completeness, except an Aquitanian high and a Pleistocene peak in skeletal completeness. Bat completeness is not correlated with intensity of sampling through geological time but has a weak negative correlation with publication date. There is no correlation between taxonomic richness and completeness, as the bat record predominately consists of diagnostic but isolated teeth. Consequently, bat skeletal completeness is the lowest of any previously assessed tetrapod group, but character completeness is similar to parareptiles and birds. Bats have significantly higher character completeness in the northern hemisphere, probably due to heightened historical interest and presence of Lagerstätten. Taxa derived from caves are more complete than those from fluviolacustrine and marine deposits, but do not preserve highly complete specimens.     

POTENTIAL PITFALLS OF RECONSTRUCTING DEEP TIME EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY WITH ONLY EXTANT DATA,A CASE STUDY USING THE CANIDAE (MAMMALIA,CARNIVORA)

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns and their underlying processes is a central goal in biology. Yet many analyses of deep evolutionary histories assume that data from the fossil record is too incomplete to include, and rely solely on databases of extant taxa. Excluding fossil taxa assumes that character state distributions across living taxa are faithful representations of a clade's entire evolutionary history. Many factors can make this assumption problematic. Fossil taxa do not simply lead‐up to extant taxa; they represent now‐extinct lineages that can substantially impact interpretations of character evolution for extant groups. Here, we analyze body mass data for extant and fossil canids (dogs, foxes, and relatives) for changes in mean and variance through time. AIC‐based model selection recovered distinct models for each of eight canid subgroups. We compared model fit of parameter estimates for (1) extant data alone and (2) extant and fossil data, demonstrating that the latter performs significantly better. Moreover, extant‐only analyses result in unrealistically low estimates of ancestral mass. Although fossil data are not always available, reconstructions of deep‐time organismal evolution in the absence of deep‐time data can be highly inaccurate, and we argue that every effort should be made to include fossil data in macroevolutionary studies.     

Horseshoe crab phylogeny and independent colonizations of fresh water: ecological invasion as a driver for morphological innovation

Xiphosurids are an archaic group of aquatic chelicerate arthropods, generally known by the colloquial misnomer of ‘horseshoe crabs’. Known from marine environments as far back as the early Ordovician, horseshoe crabs are generally considered ‘living fossils’ – descendants of a bradytelic lineage exhibiting little morphological or ecological variation throughout geological time. However, xiphosurids are known from freshwater sediments in the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic; furthermore, the contention that xiphosurids show little morphological variation has never been tested empirically. Attempts to test this are hampered by the lack of a modern phylogenetic framework with which to explore different evolutionary scenarios. Here, I present a phylogenetic analysis of Xiphosurida and explore patterns of morphospace and environmental occupation of the group throughout the Phanerozoic. Xiphosurids are shown to have invaded non‐marine environments independently at least five times throughout their evolutionary history, twice resulting in the radiation of major clades – bellinurines and austrolimulids – that occupied novel regions of morphospace. These clades show a convergent ecological pattern of differentiation, speciation and subsequent extinction. Horseshoe crabs are shown to have a more dynamic and complex evolutionary history than previously supposed, with the extant species representing only a fraction of the group's past ecological and morphological diversity.     

The impact of the Pull of the Recent on extant elasmobranchs

Modern elasmobranchs have a long evolutionary history and an abundant fossil record that consists mainly of teeth. Many fossil taxa have living representatives. However, the representation of extant taxa in the fossil record is unknown. To begin to understand the geological history of extant elasmobranchs, we here assess the quality of their fossil record. We do so by assessing the Pull of the Recent (POR). The POR can bias the fossil record because the rather complete record of living taxa allows palaeontologists to identify fossil members of the modern clades and to bridge time bins where fossils are absent. We assessed the impact of the POR by quantifying the proportion of extant elasmobranchs that have a fossil record, but do not occur in the last 5 million years (Pliocene and Pleistocene). We found that the POR does not affect orders and families, but it does affect 24% of elasmobranch genera. Within the different elasmobranch orders, the Lamniformes display the most complete generic fossil record, with no impact of the POR. Although modest, the impact of the POR in extant elasmobranch genera is higher than that found in other taxa. Overall, the geological history of elasmobranchs contradicts the usual assumption that the fossil record becomes worse backwards in time. This is the case across geographical regions and tooth size, further suggesting that sampling intensity and outcrop availability might explain the POR effect on sharks and rays.     

Environmental drivers of crocodyliform extinction across the Jurassic/Cretaceous transition

Crocodyliforms have a much richer evolutionary history than represented by their extant descendants, including several independent marine and terrestrial radiations during the Mesozoic. However, heterogeneous sampling of their fossil record has obscured their macroevolutionary dynamics, and obfuscated attempts to reconcile external drivers of these patterns. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of crocodyliform biodiversity through the Jurassic/Cretaceous (J/K) transition using subsampling and phylogenetic approaches and apply maximum-likelihood methods to fit models of extrinsic variables to assess what mediated these patterns. A combination of fluctuations in sea-level and episodic perturbations to the carbon and sulfur cycles was primarily responsible for both a marine and non-marine crocodyliform biodiversity decline through the J/K boundary, primarily documented in Europe. This was tracked by high extinction rates at the boundary and suppressed origination rates throughout the Early Cretaceous. The diversification of Eusuchia and Notosuchia likely emanated from the easing of ecological pressure resulting from the biodiversity decline, which also culminated in the extinction of the marine thalattosuchians in the late Early Cretaceous. Through application of rigorous techniques for estimating biodiversity, our results demonstrate that it is possible to tease apart the complex array of controls on diversification patterns in major archosaur clades.     

Early tetrapodomorph biogeography: Controlling for fossil record bias in macroevolutionary analyses

The fossil record provides direct empirical data for understanding macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Inherent biases in the fossil record are well known to confound analyses of this data. Sampling bias proxies have been used as covariates in regression models to test for such biases. Proxies, such as formation count, are associated with paleobiodiversity, but are insufficient for explaining species dispersal owing to a lack of geographic context. Here, we develop a sampling bias proxy that incorporates geographic information and test it with a case study on early tetrapodomorph biogeography. We use recently-developed Bayesian phylogeographic models and a new supertree of early tetrapodomorphs to estimate dispersal rates and ancestral habitat locations. We find strong evidence that geographic sampling bias explains supposed radiations in dispersal rate (potential adaptive radiations). Our study highlights the necessity of accounting for geographic sampling bias in macroevolutionary and phylogenetic analyses and provides an approach to test for its effect.     

Skeletal completeness of the non‐avian theropod dinosaur fossil record

Non‐avian theropods were a highly successful clade of bipedal, predominantly carnivorous, dinosaurs. Their diversity and macroevolutionary patterns have been the subject of many studies. Changes in fossil specimen completeness through time and space can bias our understanding of macroevolution. Here, we quantify the completeness of 455 non‐avian theropod species using the skeletal completeness metric (SCM), which calculates the proportion of a complete skeleton preserved for a specimen. Temporal patterns of theropod skeletal completeness show peaks in the Carnian, Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian and Barremian–Aptian, and lows in the Berriasian and Hauterivian. Lagerstätten primarily drive the peaks in completeness and observed taxonomic diversity in the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian and the Barremian–Aptian. Theropods have a significantly lower distribution of completeness scores than contemporary sauropodomorph dinosaurs but change in completeness through time for the two groups shows a significant correlation when conservation Lagerstätten are excluded, possibly indicating that both records are primarily driven by geology and sampling availability. Our results reveal relatively weak temporal sampling biases acting on the theropod record but relatively strong spatial and environmental biases. Asia has a significantly more complete record than any other continent, the mid northern latitudes have the highest abundance of finds, and most complete theropod skeletons come from lacustrine and aeolian environments. We suggest that these patterns result from historical research focus, modern climate dynamics, and depositional transportation energy plus association with conservation Lagerstätten, respectively. Furthermore, we find possible ecological biases acting on different theropod subgroups, but body size does not influence theropod completeness on a global scale.     

Rates of Dinosaur Body Mass Evolution Indicate 170 Million Years of Sustained Ecological Innovation on the Avian Stem Lineage

Large-scale adaptive radiations might explain the runaway success of a minority of extant vertebrate clades. This hypothesis predicts, among other things, rapid rates of morphological evolution during the early history of major groups, as lineages invade disparate ecological niches. However, few studies of adaptive radiation have included deep time data, so the links between extant diversity and major extinct radiations are unclear. The intensively studied Mesozoic dinosaur record provides a model system for such investigation, representing an ecologically diverse group that dominated terrestrial ecosystems for 170 million years. Furthermore, with 10,000 species, extant dinosaurs (birds) are the most speciose living tetrapod clade. We assembled composite trees of 614–622 Mesozoic dinosaurs/birds, and a comprehensive body mass dataset using the scaling relationship of limb bone robustness. Maximum-likelihood modelling and the node height test reveal rapid evolutionary rates and a predominance of rapid shifts among size classes in early (Triassic) dinosaurs. This indicates an early burst niche-filling pattern and contrasts with previous studies that favoured gradualistic rates. Subsequently, rates declined in most lineages, which rarely exploited new ecological niches. However, feathered maniraptoran dinosaurs (including Mesozoic birds) sustained rapid evolution from at least the Middle Jurassic, suggesting that these taxa evaded the effects of niche saturation. This indicates that a long evolutionary history of continuing ecological innovation paved the way for a second great radiation of dinosaurs, in birds. We therefore demonstrate links between the predominantly extinct deep time adaptive radiation of non-avian dinosaurs and the phenomenal diversification of birds, via continuing rapid rates of evolution along the phylogenetic stem lineage. This raises the possibility that the uneven distribution of biodiversity results not just from large-scale extrapolation of the process of adaptive radiation in a few extant clades, but also from the maintenance of evolvability on vast time scales across the history of life, in key lineages.     

A temperate palaeodiversity peak in Mesozoic dinosaurs and evidence for Late Cretaceous geographical partitioning

Aim Modern biodiversity peaks in the tropics and declines poleward, a pattern that is potentially driven by climate. Although this latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG) also characterizes the marine invertebrate fossil record, distributions of ancient terrestrial faunas are poorly understood. This study utilizes data on the dinosaur fossil record to examine spatial patterns in terrestrial biodiversity throughout the Mesozoic. Location We compiled data on fossil occurrences across the globe. Methods We compiled a comprehensive dataset of Mesozoic dinosaur genera (738), including birds. Following the utilization of sampling standardization techniques to mediate for the uneven sampling of the fossil record, we constructed latitudinal patterns of biodiversity from this dataset. Results The dominant group of Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrates did not conform to the modern LBG. Instead, dinosaur diversity was highest at temperate palaeolatitudes throughout the 160 million year span of dinosaurian evolutionary history. Latitudinal diversity correlates strongly with the distribution of land area. Late Cretaceous sauropods and ornithischians exhibit disparate LBGs. Main conclusions The continuity of the palaeotemperate peak in dinosaur diversity indicates a diminished role for climate on the Mesozoic LBG; instead, dinosaur diversity may have been driven by the amount of land area among latitudinal belts. There is no evidence that the tropics acted as a cradle for dinosaur diversity. Geographical partitioning among major clades of herbivorous dinosaurs in the Late Cretaceous may result from the advanced stages of continental fragmentation and/or differing responses to increasing latitudinal climatic zonation. Our results suggest that the modern‐day LBG on land was only established 30 million years ago, following a significant post‐Eocene recalibration, potentially related to increased seasonality.     

How many dinosaur species were there? Fossil bias and true richness estimated using a Poisson sampling model

The fossil record is a rich source of information about biological diversity in the past. However, the fossil record is not only incomplete but has also inherent biases due to geological, physical, chemical and biological factors. Our knowledge of past life is also biased because of differences in academic and amateur interests and sampling efforts. As a result, not all individuals or species that lived in the past are equally likely to be discovered at any point in time or space. To reconstruct temporal dynamics of diversity using the fossil record, biased sampling must be explicitly taken into account. Here, we introduce an approach that uses the variation in the number of times each species is observed in the fossil record to estimate both sampling bias and true richness. We term our technique TRiPS (True Richness estimated using a Poisson Sampling model) and explore its robustness to violation of its assumptions via simulations. We then venture to estimate sampling bias and absolute species richness of dinosaurs in the geological stages of the Mesozoic. Using TRiPS, we estimate that 1936 (1543–2468) species of dinosaurs roamed the Earth during the Mesozoic. We also present improved estimates of species richness trajectories of the three major dinosaur clades: the sauropodomorphs, ornithischians and theropods, casting doubt on the Jurassic–Cretaceous extinction event and demonstrating that all dinosaur groups are subject to considerable sampling bias throughout the Mesozoic.     

A preliminary phylogeny of the Pterasteridae (Echinodermata,Asteroidea) and the first fossil record: Late Cretaceous of Germany and Belgium

The Pterasteridae comprises a diversified group of extant largely deep-sea starfishes. Generic diagnoses have been based classically on soft tissue characters and skeletal architecture. A preliminary phylogeny of sixteen extant species is here worked out by cladistic analysis. The resulting tree suggests monophyly of extant genera and the validity of dissociated plates for identification of genera. Fossil remains of Pterasteridae are here described for the first time. By comparison with extant species, all the skeletal remains from the lower Upper Campanian of Belgium and from the lower Maastrichtian of Germany are tentatively assigned to the genusPteraster. The fossil record of starfishes is poor, but the present Late Cretaceous pterasterids provide one more piece of evidence of the high diversity of starfishes during the Mesozoic. Known Late Cretaceous and Paleogene fossils are broadly similar, which suggests the end-Cretaceous extinction event did not cause major turnover in asteroid faunal composition. As suggested for other starfish groups, both the fossil record of deep-sea Pterasteridae in shelf settings and tree topology imply an onshore-offshore evolutionary trend.      

Testing the effect of the rock record on diversity: a multidisciplinary approach to elucidating the generic richness of sauropodomorph dinosaurs through time

The accurate reconstruction of palaeobiodiversity patterns is central to a detailed understanding of the macroevolutionary history of a group of organisms. However, there is increasing evidence that diversity patterns observed directly from the fossil record are strongly influenced by fluctuations in the quality of our sampling of the rock record; thus, any patterns we see may reflect sampling biases, rather than genuine biological signals. Previous dinosaur diversity studies have suggested that fluctuations in sauropodomorph palaeobiodiversity reflect genuine biological signals, in comparison to theropods and ornithischians whose diversity seems to be largely controlled by the rock record. Most previous diversity analyses that have attempted to take into account the effects of sampling biases have used only a single method or proxy: here we use a number of techniques in order to elucidate diversity. A global database of all known sauropodomorph body fossil occurrences (2024) was constructed. A taxic diversity curve for all valid sauropodomorph genera was extracted from this database and compared statistically with several sampling proxies (rock outcrop area and dinosaur‐bearing formations and collections), each of which captures a different aspect of fossil record sampling. Phylogenetic diversity estimates, residuals and sample‐based rarefaction (including the first attempt to capture ‘cryptic’ diversity in dinosaurs) were implemented to investigate further the effects of sampling. After ‘removal’ of biases, sauropodomorph diversity appears to be genuinely high in the Norian, Pliensbachian–Toarcian, Bathonian–Callovian and Kimmeridgian–Tithonian (with a small peak in the Aptian), whereas low diversity levels are recorded for the Oxfordian and Berriasian–Barremian, with the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary seemingly representing a real diversity trough. Observed diversity in the remaining Triassic–Jurassic stages appears to be largely driven by sampling effort. Late Cretaceous diversity is difficult to elucidate and it is possible that this interval remains relatively under‐sampled. Despite its distortion by sampling biases, much of sauropodomorph palaeobiodiversity can be interpreted as a reflection of genuine biological signals, and fluctuations in sea level may account for some of these diversity patterns.