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1.
Resonance effects and outbreaks in ecological time series   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Blarer  & Doebeli 《Ecology letters》1999,2(3):167-177
Organismal response to environmental variability is an important aspect of ecological processes. We propose new mechanisms whereby environmental variability can cause cyclic population outbreaks due to the nonlinearity of the organismal response. We consider stage-structured populations that respond to variable environments with variable diapause or dormancy, and in which cyclic changes of the environment induce a resonance-like boost in the population size. If there is also a stochastic component of variation in the environment, the population outbreaks are magnified by the phenomenon of "stochastic resonance". The results show that large population fluctuations may not be due to extrinsic or intrinsic factors alone, but to a nonlinear interaction between the external environment and internal population processes. Indeed, in the presence of such nonlinearities even very small environmental fluctuations can cause massive fluctuations in population size. Our theoretical results may help to explain periodic population cycles and outbreak dynamics found in many infectious diseases and pest species. We also discuss the evolution of the response parameters that regulate diapause or dormancy and promote the outbreak dynamics in variable environments.  相似文献   

2.
Ancient plant species surviving in isolated small populations are particularly vulnerable to extinction, therefore understanding their population dynamics is necessary for conservation. The iteroparous perennial relic endemic Ferula sadleriana Ledeb. (Apiaceae) is restricted to seven distant localities in the Carpathian Basin, where it inhabits rocky hills. We monitored the species' largest population on the Pilis Hill, Hungary, over 14–19 years (depending on trait) between 1979 and 2010, and relationships were sought between climatic properties and population attributes. The population of 4000 ± 1509 emergent individuals underwent large interannual fluctuations, with the vegetative stage displaying sevenfold and the reproductive stage twenty‐eight‐fold differences. Spring and early summer precipitation had a marked influence on abundances and seed set. Alternating years of high and low counts of reproductive plants suggest costs of reproduction that most probably incur prolonged dormancy and retrogression to the vegetative stage. Seed set was positively influenced by number of reproductive plants over years and by plant size within a year. Ungulates nullify yearly reproductive output by grazing on reproductive individuals. This is particularly intense in dry summers, when reproductive output is already low. The strong precipitation response of abundance, absence of clonal propagation and soil seed bank, and geographical isolation of the populations place F. sadleriana at considerable risk under an increasingly variable and extreme climate. Management should seek to maintain the species' original habitat mosaic (potentially compensating for climate variation), minimize grazing damage and anthropogenic disturbance, and establish ex situ conservation programs to provide propagules for eventual reintroduction.  相似文献   

3.
Understanding the mechanisms that shape density‐dependent processes and population dynamics is often essential for species conservation. Two key mechanisms of density‐dependent reductions in reproductive performance are a limited access to foraging habitats (the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis) and territorial aggression towards conspecifics (the interference competition hypothesis) at high population densities. Disentangling the relative importance of these mechanisms within populations below their carrying capacity is important for the evaluation of the success of conservation measures. However, relatively few studies have attempted to quantify the relative importance of both mechanisms for the reproductive performance of a population. Many raptor populations are ideal model systems to investigate density‐dependent effects because they are currently recovering from human‐induced reductions during the last decades. Using a 14‐year dataset, we combined analyses of individual reproductive performance with a mechanistic population model to investigate early signs of density‐dependent regulation in a population of White‐tailed Eagles Haliaeetus albicilla in north‐east Germany. We found a negative effect of the number of neighbouring breeding pairs and a positive effect of water surface area (as a proxy for the availability of favourable foraging habitat) on breeding success and on the average number of nestlings. The mean nearest neighbour distance between breeding pairs has decreased, and the mean distance of nests to the nearest water body has increased over the last 14 years. Moreover, the population model indicates that even though the population is still growing, carrying capacity could be reached at about 500–950 territorial pairs. These results suggest that the selection of nesting sites is determined by a trade‐off between the distance to favourable foraging habitat and the distance to neighbouring breeding pairs. To avoid increasing competition with conspecifics, due to continued population growth, breeding pairs seem to select increasingly suboptimal habitats. Therefore, our results suggest that the habitat heterogeneity and interference competition hypotheses are not necessarily mutually exclusive as mechanisms of density‐dependent population regulation, but can determine the reproductive performance of a raptor population simultaneously. Thus, a future decline in breeding success does not necessarily reflect a decrease in habitat quality but may rather be a consequence of density‐dependent mechanisms. This information may be useful for the interpretation of population trends and for the development of appropriate management strategies for recovering raptor populations.  相似文献   

4.
Fluctuations in local weather conditions and other stochastic processes are important factors affecting species population persistence. We studied two differently sized populations of the rare and declining fern species Botrychium multifidum for 4 and 5 years, respectively. Individually marked plants in permanent plots were followed to detect trends in population size, reproductive success and dormancy in relation to local precipitation and temperature. Our applied logistic regression model suggests that the shortage of precipitation during summer decreases fertility in the next year in both populations. Invertebrate herbivory of the fertile part of the plant additionally diminishes the output of spores. We found the population size to be stable with a very low percentage of each population composed of juvenile plants. Stochastic processes and low recruitment could easily lead to the extinction of these populations.  相似文献   

5.
Quantifying temporal variability in population abundances   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Joel P. Heath 《Oikos》2006,115(3):573-581
Understanding variability of population abundances is of central concern to theoretical and applied evolutionary ecology, yet quantifying the conceptually simple idea has been substantially problematic. Standard statistical measures of variability are particularly biassed by rare events, zero counts and other 'non-Gaussian' behaviour, which are often inappropriately weighted or excluded from analysis. I conjecture that these problems are primarily a function of calculating variation as deviation from an average abundance, while the average may not be static, nor actually reflect abundance at any point in the time series. Here I describe a simple metric (population variability PV) that quantifies variability as the average percent difference between all combinations of observed abundances. Zero counts can be included if desired. Similar to standard metrics, variability is measured on a proportional scale, facilitating comparative applications. Standard metrics are based on Gaussian distributions, are over-sensitive to rare events and heavy tailed behaviour, and can inappropriately indicate 'more time-more variation' effects (reddened spectrum). Here I demonstrate that, while PV behaves similarly for 'normal' time series, it is independent of deviation from mean abundance for heavy tailed distributions, its robustness to non-Gaussian behaviour resolves artificial reddened spectrum issues, and variability calculated using PV from short time series is substantially more accurate at estimating known long term variability than standard metrics. PV therefore provides common ground for evaluating the variability of populations undergoing different dynamics, and with different statistical distributions of abundance, and can be easily generalized to a variety of contexts and disciplines.  相似文献   

6.
Many studies have analysed how variability in reproductive success affects fitness. However, each study tends to focus on a particular problem, leaving unclear the overall structure of variability in populations. This fractured conceptual framework often causes particular applications to be incomplete or improperly analysed. In this article, I present a concise introduction to the two key aspects of the theory. First, all measures of fitness ultimately arise from the relative comparison of the reproductive success of individuals or genotypes with the average reproductive success in the population. That relative measure creates a diminishing relation between reproductive success and fitness. Diminishing returns reduce fitness in proportion to variability in reproductive success. The relative measurement of success also induces a frequency dependence that favours rare types. Second, variability in populations has a hierarchical structure. Variable success in different traits of an individual affects that individual's variation in reproduction. Correlation between different individuals' reproduction affects variation in the aggregate success of particular alleles across the population. One must consider the hierarchical structure of variability in relation to different consequences of temporal, spatial and developmental variability. Although a complete analysis of variability has many separate parts, this simple framework allows one to see the structure of the whole and to place particular problems in their proper relation to the general theory. The biological understanding of relative success and the hierarchical structure of variability in populations may also contribute to a deeper economic theory of returns under uncertainty.  相似文献   

7.
Effective population size (N(e)) is important because it describes how evolutionary forces will affect a population. The effect of multiple sires per female on N(e) has been the subject of some debate, at the crux of which is the effects of monandry and multiple-paternity (MP) on male variance in reproductive success. In both mating systems, females mate with several males over their lifetimes, but sire offspring with one male at a time in the former and have several sires per clutch in the latter. First, I theoretically show that whether the annual male variance in reproductive success in an MP population is greater or less than that of a monandrous population depends on the distributions of within-clutch paternity. Then, I simulated different distributions of within-clutch paternity under a range of parameters that characterize natural populations to show that an MP population can have an N(e) smaller or larger than that of a monandrous population with otherwise equal dynamics. The N(e(MP)):N(e(Monandry)) ratio increased with mating frequency and female variance in reproductive success, was equalized by long generation times, and was affected by the distribution of within-clutch paternities. The results of this model provide a unifying framework for the debate.  相似文献   

8.
Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short‐term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond‐breeding amphibians.  相似文献   

9.
Habitat fragmentation decreases plant population size and increases population isolation, as well as altering patterns of plant–animal interactions, all of which may reduce plant fitness. Here, we studied effects of habitat fragmentation (in terms of population size and isolation) and soil quality on the reproduction of two rare legume species, Genista anglica (13 populations) and Genista pilosa (14 populations), confined to remnants of acidic and nutrient‐poor Calluna heathlands. Single individuals of the Genista plants are impossible to distinguish; population size was therefore estimated according to the area occupied (referred to as population size hereafter). We collected soil samples in all heathland sites to determine content of soil water, C, N, P, Ca, K and Mg. In both species values of soil pH and C/N ratio, as well as content of soil P and base cations, reflected the highly acidic and nutrient‐poor environment of the heathlands. Population sizes were unrelated to soil quality. Although the two Genista species are similar in morphology and ecology, effects of explanatory variables on reproduction were largely inconsistent across species. In G. anglica, population size had a positive impact on all reproductive variables except germination rate, which, in contrast, was the only variable affected positively by population size in G. pilosa. In both species, mean total reproductive output, calculated as the product of total seed mass per shoot and total germination, increased with increasing water content and decreased with increasing P. In G. anglica, we found positive effects of the C/N ratio on all reproductive variables except mean single and total seed mass per shoot. In summary, in both species reproductive success per shoot decreased with increasing soil nutrient availability in the heathland sites. The infestation of two large populations of G. pilosa with the pre‐dispersal, seed‐predating weevil Apion compactum had no significant effect on reproduction of the populations.  相似文献   

10.
We investigated plant reproduction in relation to genetic structure, population size, and habitat quality in 13 populations of the rare biennial plant Pedicularis palustris with 3-28500 flowering individuals. We used AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) profiles to analyze genetic similarities among 129 individuals (3-15 per population). In a cluster analysis of genetic similarities most individuals (67%) were arranged in population-specific clusters. Analysis of molecular variance indicated significant genetic differentiation among populations and among and within subpopulations (P < 0.001). Gene flow (N(e) m) was low (0.298). On average, plants produced 55 capsules, 17 seeds per fruit, and 42 seedlings in the following growing season. The number of seeds per capsule was independent of population size and of genetic variability. In contrast, the number of capsules per plant (P < 0.05) and the number of seedlings per plant (P < 0.05) were positively correlated with population size. The relation between population size and the number of seeds per plant was not significant (P = 0.075). The number of capsules and of seeds and seedlings per plant (P < 0.01) were positively correlated with genetic variability. Genetic variability was independent of actual population size, suggesting that historical population processes have to be taken into account, too. Stepwise multiple regressions revealed additional significant relationships of habitat parameters (soil pH, C:N ratio), vegetation composition, and standing crop on reproductive components. We conclude that populations of P. palustris are genetically isolated and that reproductive success most likely is influenced by population size, genetic variability, and habitat quality. Management strategies such as moderate grazing, mowing, and artificial gene flow should endeavor to increase population size as well as genetic variation.  相似文献   

11.
Reintroduction of terrestrial vertebrates with the goal of ecosystem restoration typically establishes small and isolated populations that may experience reduced genetic variability due to founder effects and genetic drift. Understanding the genetic structure of these populations and maintaining adequate genetic diversity is important for long‐term restoration success. We quantified genetic variability at six microsatellite loci for a reintroduced population of Cervus elaphus (elk) restored to the tallgrass prairie ecosystem of northeastern Kansas. Allelic richness, observed and expected heterozygosity were intermediate to levels reported in other North American elk populations. Current levels of genetic variability in restored North American elk populations were not well explained by founding population size, number of founding populations, or number of years since the last translocation. Simulation results suggest that the retention of genetic variability in isolated populations is strongly influenced by mating system while also being impacted by temporal variability in population size and population growth rate. Our results have implications for understanding how translocation strategies and post‐reintroduction management may influence genetic variability in restored populations.  相似文献   

12.
The interaction between environmental variation and population dynamics is of major importance, particularly for managed and economically important species, and especially given contemporary changes in climate variability. Recent analyses of exploited animal populations contested whether exploitation or environmental variation has the greatest influence on the stability of population dynamics, with consequences for variation in yield and extinction risk. Theoretical studies however have shown that harvesting can increase or decrease population variability depending on environmental variation, and requested controlled empirical studies to test predictions. Here, we use an invertebrate model species in experimental microcosms to explore the interaction between selective harvesting and environmental variation in food availability in affecting the variability of stage‐structured animal populations over 20 generations. In a constant food environment, harvesting adults had negligible impact on population variability or population size, but in the variable food environments, harvesting adults increased population variability and reduced its size. The impact of harvesting on population variability differed between proportional and threshold harvesting, between randomly and periodically varying environments, and at different points of the time series. Our study suggests that predicting the responses to selective harvesting is sensitive to the demographic structures and processes that emerge in environments with different patterns of environmental variation.  相似文献   

13.
The demographic consequences of within-population variability in predator foraging are not well understood. We assessed the relationship between the degree of diet specialization and two demographic parameters, population density and reproductive output, within a single population of Imperial Eagles Aquila heliaca at a nature reserve in north-central Kazakhstan. Nearest-neighbour distances between eagle nests throughout the reserve, and thus population density, were correlated with the degree to which diets were specialized. Diet diversity showed an extensive regional variability that was linked to prey distributions, but within-year analyses of reproductive output did not show similar linkages. However, multi-year analyses of breeding performance showed inter-regional differences in nesting success that were paralleled, and probably driven by, similar trends in diet diversity. In contrast, brood size at fledging was not linked to diet diversity and was more probably driven by reserve-wide influences such as weather. Finally, the decision to initiate breeding was associated neither with diet diversity nor with environmental variability. Our results indicate that the degree of dietary specialization is linked to the demographics of Imperial Eagle populations. For these and other raptor populations, it is possible that management could be used separately to increase or decrease nesting success, brood size at fledging, and the likelihood that a pair will initiate breeding.  相似文献   

14.
Seed dormancy increases population size via bet-hedging and by limiting negative interactions (e.g., competition) among individuals. On the other hand, individuals also interact positively (e.g., facilitation), and in some systems, facilitation among juveniles precedes competition among adults in the same generation. Nevertheless, studies of the benefits of seed dormancy typically ignore facilitation. Using a population growth model, we ask how the facilitation–competition balance interacts with seed dormancy rate to affect population dynamics in constant and variable environments. Facilitation increases the growth rate and equilibrium size (in both constant and variable environments) and reduces the extinction rate of populations (in a variable environment), and a higher rate of seed dormancy allows populations with facilitation to reach larger sizes. However, the combined benefits of facilitation and a high dormancy rate only occur in large populations. In small populations, weak facilitation does not affect the growth rate, but does induce a weak demographic Allee effect (where population growth decreases with decreasing population size). Our results suggest that facilitation within populations can interact with bet-hedging traits (such as dormancy) or other traits that mediate density to affect population dynamics. Further, by ensuring survival but limiting reproduction, ontogenetic switches from facilitation to competition may enable populations to persist but limit their maximum size in variable environments. Such intrinsic regulation of populations could then contribute to the maintenance of similar species within communities.  相似文献   

15.
One of the central goals of the field of population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics, particularly in the context of predator–prey relationships. Understanding the relative role of top‐down versus bottom‐up drivers is of particular interest in understanding ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to explore predator–prey relationships in a boreal ecosystem in interior Alaska through the use of multispecies long‐term monitoring data. We used 29 years of field data and a dynamic multistate site occupancy modeling approach to explore the trophic relationships between an apex predator, the golden eagle, and cyclic populations of the two primary prey species available to eagles early in the breeding season, snowshoe hare and willow ptarmigan. We found that golden eagle reproductive success was reliant on prey numbers, but also responded prior to changes in the phase of the snowshoe hare population cycle and failed to respond to variation in hare cycle amplitude. There was no lagged response to ptarmigan populations, and ptarmigan populations recovered quickly from the low phase. Together, these results suggested that eagle reproduction is largely driven by bottom‐up processes, with little evidence of top‐down control of either ptarmigan or hare populations. Although the relationship between golden eagle reproductive success and prey abundance had been previously established, here we established prey populations are likely driving eagle dynamics through bottom‐up processes. The key to this insight was our focus on golden eagle reproductive parameters rather than overall abundance. Although our inference is limited to the golden eagle–hare–ptarmigan relationships we studied, our results suggest caution in interpreting predator–prey abundance patterns among other species as strong evidence for top‐down control.  相似文献   

16.
Kenneth A. Schmidt 《Oikos》2003,103(3):548-558
Many terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by intermittent production of abundant resources for consumers, termed pulsed resources. The impact of resource pulses on populations downwind of the initial pulse are only beginning to be characterized, while the relationship between the frequencies of pulses and the long‐term growth rate of affected species is unknown. I monitored the reproductive success of veeries (Catharus fuscescens) breeding in oak‐dominated forest in southeastern New York State from 1998 to 2002. During this time veeries experienced high interannual variability in growth rates as a consequence of trophic cascades stemming from pulsed production of acorns. Rodent populations that benefited from acorns also depredated veery nests, while raptors that increased in response to rodent outbreaks are major predators on adult and juvenile birds. Veeries may recoup losses following low to moderate acorn crops that lead to rodent population declines. Thus, veeries fluctuate between years of positive and negative growth rate, however, long‐term population trends, and thus true source‐sink designation, cannot be made until the frequency of various year types is characterized. I simulated long‐term growth rates using reproductive parameters estimated from field studies and survivorship data from the literature. Simulations suggest that variability in the frequency of masting events in oaks can lead to ~10% fluctuation in long‐term growth rates in veeries. These studies suggest that temporal variability in masting dynamics has the potential to substantially influence songbird population trends. Furthermore, spatial variability in masting characteristics (e.g. the frequency of masting events and/or the size of seed crops) may greatly contribute to regional differences in songbird population trends. Because even less is known about the relationship between sizes of acorn crops and songbird populations, the influence of pulses in seed production on songbird population dynamics is likely to be underestimated.  相似文献   

17.
Seed dormancy and size are two important life‐history traits that interplay as adaptation to varying environmental settings. As evolution of both traits involves correlated selective pressures, it is of interest to comparatively investigate the evolution of the two traits jointly as well as independently. We explore evolutionary trajectories of seed dormancy and size using adaptive dynamics in scenarios of deterministic or stochastic temperature variations. Ecological dynamics usually result in unbalanced population structures, and temperature shifts or fluctuations of high magnitude give rise to more balanced ecological structures. When only seed dormancy evolves, it is counter‐selected and temperature shifts hasten this evolution. Evolution of seed size results in the fixation of a given strategy and evolved seed size decreases when seed dormancy is lowered. When coevolution is allowed, evolutionary variations are reduced while the speed of evolution becomes faster given temperature shifts. Such coevolution scenarios systematically result in reduced seed dormancy and size and similar unbalanced population structures. We discuss how this may be linked to the system stability. Dormancy is counter‐selected because population dynamics lead to stable equilibrium, while small seeds are selected as the outcome of size‐number trade‐offs. Our results suggest that unlike random temperature variation between generations, temperature shifts with high magnitude can considerably alter population structures and accelerate life‐history evolution. This study increases our understanding of plant evolution and persistence in the context of climate changes.  相似文献   

18.
Age‐specific variation in reproductive effort can affect population dynamics, and is a key component of the evolution of reproductive tactics. Late‐life declines are a typical feature of variation in reproduction. However, the cause of these declines, and thus their implications for the evolution of life‐history tactics, may differ. Some prior studies have shown late‐life reproductive declines to be tied to chronological age, whereas other studies have found declines associated with terminal reproduction irrespective of chronological age. We investigated the extent to which declines in late life reproduction are related to chronological age, terminal reproductive attempt or a combination of both in the thorn‐tailed rayadito Aphrastura spinicauda, a small passerine bird that inhabits the temperate forest of South America. To this end we used long‐term data (10 years) obtained on reproductive success (laying date, clutch size and nestling weight) of females in a Chilean population. Neither chronological age nor terminal reproductive attempt explained variation in clutch size or nestling weight, however we observed that during the terminal reproductive attempt older females tended to lay later in the breeding season and younger females laid early in the breeding season, but this was not the case when the reproductive attempt was not the last. These results suggests that both age‐dependent and age‐independent effects influence reproductive output and therefore that the combined effects of age and physiological condition may be more relevant than previously thought.  相似文献   

19.
The harvest of ungulate populations is often directed against certain sex or age classes to maximize the yield in terms of biomass, number of shot animals or number of trophies. Here we examine how such directional harvest affects the effective size of the population. We parameterize an age-specific model assumed to describe the dynamics of Fennoscandian moose. Based on expressions for the demographic variance     for a small subpopulation of heterozygotes Aa bearing a rare neutral allele a , we use this model to calculate how different harvest strategies influence the effective size of the population, given that the population remains stable after harvest. We show that the annual genetic drift, determined by     , increases with decreasing harvest rate of calves and increasing sex bias in the harvest towards bulls 1 year or older. The effective population size per generation decreased with reduced harvest of calves and increased harvest of bulls 1 year or older. The magnitude of these effects depends on the age-specific pattern of variation in reproductive success, which influences the demographic variance. This shows that the choice of harvest strategy strongly affects the genetic dynamics of harvested ungulate populations.  相似文献   

20.
Maternal sex ratio distorters (MSDs) are selfish elements that enhance their transmission by biasing their host's sex allocation in favor of females. While previous models have predicted that the female‐biased populations resulting from sex ratio distortion can benefit from enhanced productivity, these models neglect Fisherian selection for nuclear suppressors, an unrealistic assumption in most systems. We used individual‐based computer simulation modeling to explore the intragenomic conflict between sex ratio distorters and their suppressors and explored the impacts of these dynamics on population‐level competition between species characterized by MSDs and those lacking them. The conflict between distorters and suppressors was capable of producing large cyclical fluctuations in the population sex ratio and reproductive rate. Despite fitness costs associated with the distorters and suppressors, MSD populations often exhibited enhanced productivity and outcompeted non‐MSD populations in single and multiple‐population competition simulations. Notably, the conflict itself is beneficial to the success of populations, as sex ratio oscillations limit the competitive deficits associated with prolonged periods of male rarity. Although intragenomic conflict has been historically viewed as deleterious to populations, our results suggest that distorter–suppressor conflict can provide population‐level advantages, potentially helping to explain the persistence of sex ratio distorters in a range of taxa.  相似文献   

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