Incidence of advanced chronic renal failure and the need for end stage renal replacement treatment.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the age related incidence of advanced chronic renal failure in two areas of England. DESIGN--Prospective study of patients newly identified as having advanced chronic renal failure within a two year period; subsequent monitoring of patients'' clinical course for a further 26 months. SETTING--Devon and Blackburn. SUBJECTS--Those patients in a population of 708,997 who developed advanced chronic renal failure (serum creatinine concentration greater than 500 mumol/l) for the first time during a two year period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS--210 Patients (148 per million population per year) developed advanced chronic renal failure, 117 (51%) of whom were over 70. The age related incidence rose from 58 per million per year in those aged 20-49 to 588 per million per year in those aged 80 or over. Only 54% (113) of patients were referred to a nephrologist; 120 patients (57%) needed dialysis or died within three months of presenting without receiving dialysis, and 187 (89%) died or needed dialysis within three years. After those unsuitable for further treatment had been excluded, 78 patients per million population per year aged under 80 needed to start long term renal replacement treatment. CONCLUSIONS--Many patients suitable for renal replacement treatment are still not referred for nephrological opinion and are denied treatment. If the treatment rate in the United Kingdom rose from the 1988 rate of 55.1 per million per year to 78 per million per year then the number of patients receiving treatment would rise to about 800 per million. This is double the present number and has considerable but predictable resource implications for the NHS.     

Chronic renal failure in Nottingham and requirements for dialysis and transplantfacilities.

A retrospective study of uraemic patients covering 12 months of 1970 and a prospective survey covering six months in 1973-4 is reported for a population of almost 3/4million. The number of patients requiring regular dialysis treatment or transplantation or both is considered to be 45 per million of population under 65, 39 per million under 60, and 29 per million under 50 years of age.     

Voluntary medical male circumcision: modeling the impact and cost of expanding male circumcision for HIV prevention in eastern and southern Africa

Background

There is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data.

Methods and Findings

We use the Decision Makers'' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization''s considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion.

Conclusions

This study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region''s HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Containing Health Care Costs: A Critical Test of the Public-Private Joint Venture in Health

As the federal government shifted from its traditional roles in health to the payment for personal health care, the relationship between public and private sectors has deteriorated. Today federal and state revenue funds and trusts are the largest purchasers of services from a predominantly private health system. This financing or “gap-filling” role is essential; so too is the purchaser''s concern for the costs and prices it must meet. The cost per person for personal health care in 1980 is expected to average $950, triple for the aged. Hospital costs vary considerably and inexplicably among states; California residents, for example, spend 50 percent more per year for hospital care than do state of Washington residents. The failure of each sector to understand the other is potentially damaging to the parties and to patients. First, and most important, differences can and must be moderated through definite changes in the attitudes of the protagonists.     

Multimorbidity combinations,costs of hospital care and potentially preventable emergency admissions in England: A cohort study

BackgroundPatients with multimorbidities have the greatest healthcare needs and generate the highest expenditure in the health system. There is an increasing focus on identifying specific disease combinations for addressing poor outcomes. Existing research has identified a small number of prevalent “clusters” in the general population, but the limited number examined might oversimplify the problem and these may not be the ones associated with important outcomes. Combinations with the highest (potentially preventable) secondary care costs may reveal priority targets for intervention or prevention. We aimed to examine the potential of defining multimorbidity clusters for impacting secondary care costs.Methods and findingsWe used national, Hospital Episode Statistics, data from all hospital admissions in England from 2017/2018 (cohort of over 8 million patients) and defined multimorbidity based on ICD-10 codes for 28 chronic conditions (we backfilled conditions from 2009/2010 to address potential undercoding). We identified the combinations of multimorbidity which contributed to the highest total current and previous 5-year costs of secondary care and costs of potentially preventable emergency hospital admissions in aggregate and per patient. We examined the distribution of costs across unique disease combinations to test the potential of the cluster approach for targeting interventions at high costs. We then estimated the overlap between the unique combinations to test potential of the cluster approach for targeting prevention of accumulated disease. We examined variability in the ranks and distributions across age (over/under 65) and deprivation (area level, deciles) subgroups and sensitivity to considering a smaller number of diseases.There were 8,440,133 unique patients in our sample, over 4 million (53.1%) were female, and over 3 million (37.7%) were aged over 65 years. No clear “high cost” combinations of multimorbidity emerged as possible targets for intervention. Over 2 million (31.6%) patients had 63,124 unique combinations of multimorbidity, each contributing a small fraction (maximum 3.2%) to current-year or 5-year secondary care costs. Highest total cost combinations tended to have fewer conditions (dyads/triads, most including hypertension) affecting a relatively large population. This contrasted with the combinations that generated the highest cost for individual patients, which were complex sets of many (6+) conditions affecting fewer persons. However, all combinations containing chronic kidney disease and hypertension, or diabetes and hypertension, made up a significant proportion of total secondary care costs, and all combinations containing chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and hypertension had the highest proportion of preventable emergency admission costs, which might offer priority targets for prevention of disease accumulation. The results varied little between age and deprivation subgroups and sensitivity analyses.Key limitations include availability of data only from hospitals and reliance on hospital coding of health conditions.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that there are no clear multimorbidity combinations for a cluster-targeted intervention approach to reduce secondary care costs. The role of risk-stratification and focus on individual high-cost patients with interventions is particularly questionable for this aim. However, if aetiology is favourable for preventing further disease, the cluster approach might be useful for targeting disease prevention efforts with potential for cost-savings in secondary care.

Jonathan Stokes and co-workers explore patterns of multimorbidity and implications for the organization and costs of care.     

Pediatric Chronic Dialysis in Brazil: Epidemiology and Regional Inequalities

Introduction

There are few reports in the literature estimating the epidemiologic characteristics of pediatric chronic dialysis. These patients have impaired physical growth, high number of comorbidities and great need for continuous attention of specialized services with high demand for complex and costly procedures.

Objective

The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence and prevalence rates and describe the characteristics of children and adolescents undergoing chronic dialysis treatment in a Brazilian demographic health survey.

Materials and Methods

A cross-sectional study was performed in a representative sample of dialysis centers (n^c = 239) that was established from the 2011 Brazilian Nephrology Society Census (N^c = 708). We collected data encompassing the five Brazilian macro-regions. We analyzed the data from all patients under 19 years of age. The sample population consisted of 643 children and adolescents who were on chronic dialysis program anytime in 2012. Data collection was carried out in the dialysis services by means of patients'' records reviews and personal interviews with the centers’ leaders.

Results

We estimated that there were a total of 1,283 pediatric patients on chronic dialysis treatment in Brazil, resulting in a prevalence of 20.0 cases per million age-related population (pmarp) (95% CI: 14.8–25.3) and an incidence of 6.6 cases pmarp in 2012 (95% CI: 4.8–8.4). The South region had the highest prevalence and incidence rates of patients under dialysis therapy, 27.7 (95% CI: 7.3–48.1) and 11.0 (95% CI: 2.8–19.3) cases pmarp, respectively; the lowest prevalence and incidence rates were found in the North-Midwest region, 13.8 (95% CI: 6.2–21.4), and in the Northeast region, 3.8 (95% CI: 1.4–6.3) cases pmarp, respectively.

Conclusion

Brazil has an overall low prevalence of children on chronic dialysis treatment, figuring near the rates from others countries with same socioeconomic profile. There are substantial differences among regions related to pediatric chronic dialysis treatment. Joint strategies aiming to reduce inequities and improving access to treatment and adequacy of services across the Brazilian regions are necessary to provide an appropriate care setting for this population group.     

Cost analysis of the Kozak protocol as used in an Ontario hospital in the treatment of children with epidermolysis bullosa.

Conventional treatment of epidermolysis bullosa is often unsuccessful. The Kozak protocol is an alternative that has been given considerable public support in Ontario. The incremental cost of this treatment program at the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, was examined. The departments of nursing, pharmacy and food services each kept records of salaries and supply costs applicable to the care of nine patients with epidermolysis bullosa who were treated in the fiscal year 1982-83. The selected direct costs to the hospital were compared with the projected costs if these patients had been treated in Dr. Kozak''s clinic in West Germany or under the financial arrangements offered to Dr. Kozak by the Ontario minister of health. At a total incremental cost of +255.92 per patient-day, care at the Hospital for Sick Children may not currently be the least expensive means of offering the Kozak protocol to Ontario children. However, the major expense of the program, the nurses'' salaries, could be reduced if the patients'' parents were to assume many of the nursing tasks; this would make the hospital''s program the most cost-effective method of treating children with epidermolysis bullosa.     

Rising population cost for treating people living with HIV in the UK, 1997-2013

Background

The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) is increasing in the UK. This study estimated the annual population cost of providing HIV services in the UK, 1997–2006 and projected them 2007–2013.

Methods

Annual cost of HIV treatment for PLHIV by stage of HIV infection and type of ART was calculated (UK pounds, 2006 prices). Population costs were derived by multiplying the number of PLHIV by their annual cost for 1997–2006 and projected 2007–2013.

Results

Average annual treatment costs across all stages of HIV infection ranged from £17,034 in 1997 to £18,087 in 2006 for PLHIV on mono-therapy and from £27,649 in 1997 to £32,322 in 2006 for those on quadruple-or-more ART. The number of PLHIV using NHS services rose from 16,075 to 52,083 in 2006 and was projected to increase to 78,370 by 2013. Annual population cost rose from £104 million in 1997 to £483 million in 2006, with a projected annual cost between £721 and £758 million by 2013. When including community care costs, costs increased from £164 million in 1997, to £683 million in 2006 and between £1,019 and £1,065 million in 2013.

Conclusions

Increased number of PLHIV using NHS services resulted in rising UK population costs. Population costs are expected to continue to increase, partly due to PLHIV''s longer survival on ART and the relative lack of success of HIV preventing programs. Where possible, the cost of HIV treatment and care needs to be reduced without reducing the quality of services, and prevention programs need to become more effective. While high income countries are struggling to meet these increasing costs, middle- and lower-income countries with larger epidemics are likely to find it even more difficult to meet these increasing demands, given that they have fewer resources.     

Epidemiologic and economic burden of influenza in the outpatient setting: a prospective study in a subtropical area of china

Objectives

To understand the incidence of outpatient influenza cases in a subtropical area of China and the associated economic burden on patients'' families.

Methods

A hospital-based prospective study was conducted in Zhuhai City during 2008–2009. All outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were identified in 28 sentinel hospitals. A representative sample of throat swabs from ILI cases were collected for virus isolation using Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. The incidence of outpatient influenza cases in Zhuhai was estimated on the basis of the number of influenza patients detected by the sentinel sites. A telephone survey on the direct costs associated with illness was conducted as a follow-up.

Results

The incidence of influenza was estimated to be 4.1 per 1,000 population in 2008 and 19.2 per 1,000 population in 2009. Children aged <5 years were the most-affected population, suffering from influenza at the highest rates (34.3 per 1,000 population in 2008 and 95.3 per 1,000 population in 2009). A high incidence of 29.2–40.9 per 1000 population was also seen in young people aged 5–24 years in 2009. ILI activity and influenza virus isolations adopted a consistent seasonal pattern, with a summer peak in July 2008 and the longest epidemic period lasting from July–December 2009. The medical costs per episode of influenza among urban patients were higher than those for rural patients. A total of $1.1 million in direct economic losses were estimated to be associated with outpatient influenza during 2008–2009 in Zhuhai community.

Conclusions

Influenza attacks children aged <5 years in greater proportions than children in other age groups. Seasonal influenza 2008 and Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 had different epidemiological and etiological characteristics. Direct costs (mostly medical costs) impose an enormous burden on the patient family. Vaccination strategies for high-risk groups need to be further strengthened.     

Costs Analysis of a Population Level Rabies Control Programme in Tamil Nadu,India

The study aimed to determine costs to the state government of implementing different interventions for controlling rabies among the entire human and animal populations of Tamil Nadu. This built upon an earlier assessment of Tamil Nadu''s efforts to control rabies. Anti-rabies vaccines were made available at all health facilities. Costs were estimated for five different combinations of animal and human interventions using an activity-based costing approach from the provider perspective. Disease and population data were sourced from the state surveillance data, human census and livestock census. Program costs were extrapolated from official documents. All capital costs were depreciated to estimate annualized costs. All costs were inflated to 2012 Rupees. Sensitivity analysis was conducted across all major cost centres to assess their relative impact on program costs. It was found that the annual costs of providing Anti-rabies vaccine alone and in combination with Immunoglobulins was $0.7 million (Rs 36 million) and $2.2 million (Rs 119 million), respectively. For animal sector interventions, the annualised costs of rolling out surgical sterilisation-immunization, injectable immunization and oral immunizations were estimated to be $ 44 million (Rs 2,350 million), $23 million (Rs 1,230 million) and $ 11 million (Rs 590 million), respectively. Dog bite incidence, health systems coverage and cost of rabies biologicals were found to be important drivers of costs for human interventions. For the animal sector interventions, the size of dog catching team, dog population and vaccine costs were found to be driving the costs. Rabies control in Tamil Nadu seems a costly proposition the way it is currently structured. Policy makers in Tamil Nadu and other similar settings should consider the long-term financial sustainability before embarking upon a state or nation-wide rabies control programme.     

An Economic Assessment Model of Rural and Remote Satellite Hemodialysis Units

Background

Kidney Failure is epidemic in many remote communities in Canada. In-centre hemodialysis is provided within these settings in satellite hemodialysis units. The key cost drivers of this program have not been fully described. Such information is important in informing the design of programs aimed at optimizing efficiency in providing dialysis and preventative chronic kidney disease care in remote communities.

Design, Setting, Participants, and Measurements

We constructed a cost model based on data derived from 16 of Manitoba, Canada’s remote satellite units. We included all costs for operation of the unit, transportation, treatment, and capital costs. All costs were presented in 2013 Canadian dollars.

Results

The annual per-patient cost of providing hemodialysis in the satellite units ranged from $80,372 to $215,918 per patient, per year. The median per patient, per year cost was $99,888 (IQR $89,057—$122,640). Primary cost drivers were capital costs related to construction, human resource expenses, and expenses for return to tertiary care centres for health care. Costs related to transport considerably increased estimates in units that required plane or helicopter transfers.

Conclusions

Satellite hemodialysis units in remote areas are more expensive on a per-patient basis than hospital hemodialysis and satellite hemodialysis available in urban areas. In some rural, remote locations, better value for money may reside in local surveillance and prevention programs in addition support for home dialysis therapies over construction of new satellite hemodialysis units.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Tdap Vaccination of Adults Aged ≥65 Years in the Prevention of Pertussis in the US: A Dynamic Model of Disease Transmission

Objectives

In February 2012, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) advised that all adults aged ≥65 years receive a single dose of reduced-antigen-content tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), expanding on a 2010 recommendation for adults >65 that was limited to those with close contact with infants. We evaluated clinical and economic outcomes of adding Tdap booster of adults aged ≥65 to “baseline” practice [full-strength DTaP administered from 2 months to 4–6 years, and one dose of Tdap at 11–64 years replacing decennial Td booster], using a dynamic model.

Methods

We constructed a population-level disease transmission model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of supplementing baseline practice by vaccinating 10% of eligible adults aged ≥65 with Tdap replacing the decennial Td booster. US population effects, including indirect benefits accrued by unvaccinated persons, were estimated during a 1-year period after disease incidence reached a new steady state, with consequences of deaths and long-term pertussis sequelae projected over remaining lifetimes. Model outputs include: cases by severity, encephalopathy, deaths, costs (of vaccination and pertussis care) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each strategy. Results in terms of incremental cost/QALY gained are presented from payer and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses vary key parameters within plausible ranges.

Results

For the US population, the intervention is expected to prevent >97,000 cases (>4,000 severe and >5,000 among infants) of pertussis annually at steady state. Additional vaccination costs are $4.7 million. Net cost savings, including vaccination costs, are $47.7 million (societal perspective) and $44.8 million (payer perspective). From both perspectives, the intervention strategy is dominant (less costly, and more effective by >3,000 QALYs) versus baseline. Results are robust to sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios.

Conclusions

Immunization of eligible adults aged ≥65, consistent with the current ACIP recommendation, is cost saving from both payer and societal perspectives.     

The New Comorbidity Index for Predicting Survival in Elderly Dialysis Patients: A Long-Term Population-Based Study

Background

The worldwide elderly (≥65 years old) dialysis population has grown significantly. This population is expected to have more comorbid conditions and shorter life expectancies than the general elderly population. Predicting outcomes for this population is important for decision-making. Recently, a new comorbidity index (nCI) with good predictive value for patient outcomes was developed and validated in chronic dialysis patients regardless of age. Our study examined the nCI outcome predictability in elderly dialysis patients.

Methods and Findings

For this population-based cohort study, we used Taiwan''s National Health Insurance Research Database of enrolled elderly patients, who began maintenance dialysis between January 1999 and December 2005. A total of 21,043 incident dialysis patients were divided into 4 groups by nCI score (intervals ≤3, 4–6, 7–9, ≥10) and followed nearly for 10 years. All-cause mortality and life expectancy were analyzed. During the follow-up period, 11272 (53.55%) patients died. Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant group difference in survival (log-rank: P<0.001). After stratification by age, life expectancy was found to be significantly longer in groups with lower nCI scores.

Conclusion

The nCI, even without the age component, is a strong predictor of mortality in elderly dialysis patients. Because patients with lower nCI scores may predict better survival, more attention should paid to adequate dialysis rather than palliative care, especially in those without obvious functional impairments.     

Use of APACHE II classification to evaluate outcome of patients receiving hemodialysis in an intensive care unit.

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of all patients who were admitted to the medical and surgical intensive care units of a university center (N = 100) and its affiliated veterans'' hospital (N = 46) between 1982 and 1986 to receive dialysis. The APACHE II severity-of-disease classification was used to identify the cases in which the prognosis was so poor that no long-term benefit would accrue from hemodialysis treatment. A "risk of death" was calculated for each patient. At a risk of death of 70% or greater, the system correctly predicted the demise of patients with 100% specificity regardless of what interventions were carried out. Sensitivity and predicted negative value were low in all cases, however, indicating a poor predictability of those who will survive. Withholding the average of 6 dialysis treatments that this group of patients received would probably have reduced patient suffering during a lingering terminal illness and led to a savings of about $4,500 per patient.     

Cost effectiveness of primary stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: Swedish national perspective.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the potential effects of primary prevention with anticoagulants or aspirin in atrial fibrillation on Swedish population. DESIGN--Analysis of cost effectiveness based on the following assumptions: about 83,000 people have atrial fibrillation in Sweden, of whom 22,000 would be potential candidates for treatment with anticoagulants and 55,000 for aspirin treatment; the annual 5% stroke rate is reduced by 64% (with anticoagulants) and 25% (with aspirin); incidence of intracranial haemorrhage of 0.3%, 1.3%, or 2.0% per year; direct and indirect costs of a stroke of Kr180,000 and Kr90,000; estimated annual cost of treatment is Kr5030 for anticoagulants and Kr100 for aspirin. SETTING--Total Swedish population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Direct and indirect costs of stroke saved, number of strokes prevented, and cost of preventive treatment. RESULTS--Depending on the rate of haemorrhagic complications 34 to 83 patients would need to be treated annually with anticoagulants to prevent one stroke; 83 patients would need to be treated with aspirin. Giving anticoagulant treatment only would reduce costs by Kr60 million if the incidence of intracranial haemorrhage were 0.3% but would imply a net expense if the complication rate exceeded 1.3%. The total savings from giving anticoagulant (22,000 patients) and aspirin (55,000 patients) treatment would be Kr175 million per year corresponding to 2 million pounds per million inhabitants each year. CONCLUSIONS--Treatment with anticoagulants and, if contraindications exist, with aspirin is cost effective provided that the risk of serious haemorrhage complications due to anticoagulants is kept low.     

Direct cost associated with acquired brain injury in Ontario

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Acquired Brain Injury (ABI) from traumatic and non traumatic causes is a leading cause of disability worldwide yet there is limited research summarizing the health system economic burden associated with ABI. The objective of this study was to determine the direct cost of publicly funded health care services from the initial hospitalization to three years post-injury for individuals with traumatic (TBI) and non-traumatic brain injury (nTBI) in Ontario Canada. METHODS: A population-based cohort of patients discharged from acute hospital with an ABI code in any diagnosis position in 2004 through 2007 in Ontario was identified from administrative data. Publicly funded health care utilization was obtained from several Ontario administrative healthcare databases. Patients were stratified according to traumatic and non-traumatic causes of brain injury and whether or not they were discharged to an inpatient rehabilitation center. Health system costs were calculated across a continuum of institutional and community settings for up to three years after initial discharge. The continuum of settings included acute care emergency departments inpatient rehabilitation (IR) complex continuing care home care services and physician visits. All costs were calculated retrospectively assuming the government payer's perspective. RESULTS: Direct medical costs in an ABI population are substantial with mean cost in the first year post-injury per TBI and nTBI patient being $32132 and $38018 respectively. Among both TBI and nTBI patients those discharged to IR had significantly higher treatment costs than those not discharged to IR across all institutional and community settings. This tendency remained during the entire three-year follow-up period. Annual medical costs of patients hospitalized with a brain injury in Ontario in the first follow-up year were approximately $120.7 million for TBI and $368.7 million for nTBI. Acute care cost accounted for 46-65 % of the total treatment cost in the first year overwhelming all other cost components. CONCLUSIONS: The main finding of this study is that direct medical costs in ABI population are substantial and vary considerably by the injury cause. Although most expenses occur in the first follow-up year ABI patients continue to use variety of medical services in the second and third year with emphasis shifting over time from acute care and inpatient rehabilitation towards homecare physician services and long-term institutional care. More research is needed to capture economic costs for ABI patients not admitted to acute care.     

Large-scale use of mosquito larval source management for malaria control in Africa: a cost analysis

Background

At present, large-scale use of two malaria vector control methods, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) is being scaled up in Africa with substantial funding from donors. A third vector control method, larval source management (LSM), has been historically very successful and is today widely used for mosquito control globally, except in Africa. With increasing risk of insecticide resistance and a shift to more exophilic vectors, LSM is now under re-evaluation for use against afro-tropical vector species. Here the costs of this intervention were evaluated.

Methods

The 'ingredients approach' was used to estimate the economic and financial costs per person protected per year (pppy) for large-scale LSM using microbial larvicides in three ecologically diverse settings: (1) the coastal metropolitan area of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, (2) a highly populated Kenyan highland area (Vihiga District), and (3) a lakeside setting in rural western Kenya (Mbita Division). Two scenarios were examined to investigate the cost implications of using alternative product formulations. Sensitivity analyses on product prices were carried out.

Results

The results show that for programmes using the same granular formulation larviciding costs the least pppy in Dar es Salaam (US$0.94), approximately 60% more in Vihiga District (US$1.50) and the most in Mbita Division (US$2.50). However, these costs are reduced substantially if an alternative water-dispensable formulation is used; in Vihiga, this would reduce costs to US$0.79 and, in Mbita Division, to US$1.94. Larvicide and staff salary costs each accounted for approximately a third of the total economic costs per year. The cost pppy depends mainly on: (1) the type of formulation required for treating different aquatic habitats, (2) the human population density relative to the density of aquatic habitats and (3) the potential to target the intervention in space and/or time.

Conclusion

Costs for LSM compare favourably with costs for IRS and LLINs, especially in areas with moderate and focal malaria transmission where mosquito larval habitats are accessible and well defined. LSM presents an attractive tool to be integrated in ongoing malaria control effort in such settings. Further data on the epidemiological health impact of larviciding is required to establish cost effectiveness.     

Evolution of antiretroviral drug costs in Brazil in the context of free and universal access to AIDS treatment

Background

Little is known about the long-term drug costs associated with treating AIDS in developing countries. Brazil''s AIDS treatment program has been cited widely as the developing world''s largest and most successful AIDS treatment program. The program guarantees free access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for all people living with HIV/AIDS in need of treatment. Brazil produces non-patented generic antiretroviral drugs (ARVs), procures many patented ARVs with negotiated price reductions, and recently issued a compulsory license to import one patented ARV. In this study, we investigate the drivers of recent ARV cost trends in Brazil through analysis of drug-specific prices and expenditures between 2001 and 2005.

Methods and Findings

We compared Brazil''s ARV prices to those in other low- and middle-income countries. We analyzed trends in drug expenditures for HAART in Brazil from 2001 to 2005 on the basis of cost data disaggregated by each ARV purchased by the Brazilian program. We decomposed the overall changes in expenditures to compare the relative impacts of changes in drug prices and drug purchase quantities. We also estimated the excess costs attributable to the difference between prices for generics in Brazil and the lowest global prices for these drugs. Finally, we estimated the savings attributable to Brazil''s reduced prices for patented drugs. Negotiated drug prices in Brazil are lowest for patented ARVs for which generic competition is emerging. In recent years, the prices for efavirenz and lopinavir–ritonavir (lopinavir/r) have been lower in Brazil than in other middle-income countries. In contrast, the price of tenofovir is US$200 higher per patient per year than that reported in other middle-income countries. Despite precipitous price declines for four patented ARVs, total Brazilian drug expenditures doubled, to reach US$414 million in 2005. We find that the major driver of cost increases was increased purchase quantities of six specific drugs: patented lopinavir/r, efavirenz, tenofovir, atazanavir, enfuvirtide, and a locally produced generic, fixed-dose combination of zidovudine and lamivudine (AZT/3TC). Because prices declined for many of the patented drugs that constitute the largest share of drug costs, nearly the entire increase in overall drug expenditures between 2001 and 2005 is attributable to increases in drug quantities. Had all drug quantities been held constant from 2001 until 2005 (or for those drugs entering treatment guidelines after 2001, held constant between the year of introduction and 2005), total costs would have increased by only an estimated US$7 million. We estimate that in the absence of price declines for patented drugs, Brazil would have spent a cumulative total of US$2 billion on drugs for HAART between 2001 and 2005, implying a savings of US$1.2 billion from price declines. Finally, in comparing Brazilian prices for locally produced generic ARVs to the lowest international prices meeting global pharmaceutical quality standards, we find that current prices for Brazil''s locally produced generics are generally much higher than corresponding global prices, and note that these prices have risen in Brazil while declining globally. We estimate the excess costs of Brazil''s locally produced generics totaled US$110 million from 2001 to 2005.

Conclusions

Despite Brazil''s more costly generic ARVs, the net result of ARV price changes has been a cost savings of approximately US$1 billion since 2001. HAART costs have nevertheless risen steeply as Brazil has scaled up treatment. These trends may foreshadow future AIDS treatment cost trends in other developing countries as more people start treatment, AIDS patients live longer and move from first-line to second and third-line treatment, AIDS treatment becomes more complex, generic competition emerges, and newer patented drugs become available. The specific application of the Brazilian model to other countries will depend, however, on the strength of their health systems, intellectual property regulations, epidemiological profiles, AIDS treatment guidelines, and differing capacities to produce drugs locally.     

Screening for carriers of cystic fibrosis through primary health care services.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the uptake of cystic fibrosis carrier testing offered through primary health care services. DESIGN--Carrier testing for cystic fibrosis was offered to patients of reproductive age through primary health care services. SETTING--Three general practice surgeries and four family planning clinics in South West Hertfordshire District Health Authority. SUBJECTS--Over 1000 patients aged 16-44 attending two general practices and four family planning clinics and a stratified random sample of patients aged 16-44 from one general practice''s age-sex register. RESULTS--When screening was offered opportunistically the uptake was 66% in general practice and 87% in family planning clinics. Ten per cent of those offered a screening appointment by letter took up the invitation. Of the screened population, 76% had previously heard of cystic fibrosis, 35% realised it is inherited, and 18% realised that carriers need not have any family history. If they found themselves in an "at risk" partnership 39% would consider not having children and 26% would consider terminating an affected pregnancy, but in each case most people were unsure how they would react. CONCLUSIONS--Most people offered a cystic fibrosis test opportunistically wish to be tested, and the responses of those tested indicate that knowledge of carrier state would be considered in future reproductive decisions.