Reductions in Cardiovascular,Cerebrovascular, and Respiratory Mortality following the National Irish Smoking Ban: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background

Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality.

Methods

A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence.

Results

Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76–0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63–0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54–0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46–0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35–64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32–0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305–4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking.

Conclusions

The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes.     

Burden of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Related to Tobacco Smoking among Adults Aged ≥45 Years in Asia: A Pooled Analysis of 21 Cohorts

Background

Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men''s smoking prevalence is among the world''s highest.

Methods and Findings

We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan—accounting for ∼71% of Asia''s total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37–1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38–1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%–17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%–4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ∼1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000–1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: a 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Effect of smoke-free workplaces on smoking behaviour: systematic review

ObjectiveTo quantify the effects of smoke-free workplaces on smoking in employees and compare these effects to those achieved through tax increases.DesignSystematic review with a random effects meta-analysis.SettingWorkplaces in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Germany.ParticipantsEmployees in unrestricted and totally smoke-free workplaces.ResultsTotally smoke-free workplaces are associated with reductions in prevalence of smoking of 3.8% (95% confidence interval 2.8% to 4.7%) and 3.1 (2.4 to 3.8) fewer cigarettes smoked per day per continuing smoker. Combination of the effects of reduced prevalence and lower consumption per continuing smoker yields a mean reduction of 1.3 cigarettes per day per employee, which corresponds to a relative reduction of 29%. To achieve similar reductions the tax on a pack of cigarettes would have to increase from $0.76 to $3.05 (€0.78 to €3.14) in the United States and from £3.44 to £6.59 (€5.32 to €10.20) in the United Kingdom. If all workplaces became smoke-free, consumption per capita in the entire population would drop by 4.5% in the United States and 7.6% in the United Kingdom, costing the tobacco industry $1.7 billion and £310 million annually in lost sales. To achieve similar reductions tax per pack would have to increase to $1.11 and £4.26.ConclusionsSmoke-free workplaces not only protect non-smokers from the dangers of passive smoking, they also encourage smokers to quit or to reduce consumption.

What is already known on this topic

Smoke-free workplaces are associated with lower cigarette consumption per continuing smoker

What this study adds

Smoke-free workplaces reduce prevalence of smoking as well as consumptionThe combined effects of people stopping smoking and reducing consumption reduces total cigarette consumption by 29%To achieve similar results through taxation would require cigarette taxes per pack to increase from $0.76 to $3.05 in the United States and from £3.44 to £6.59 in the United Kingdom     

Cost-Effectiveness of Tdap Vaccination of Adults Aged ≥65 Years in the Prevention of Pertussis in the US: A Dynamic Model of Disease Transmission

Objectives

In February 2012, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) advised that all adults aged ≥65 years receive a single dose of reduced-antigen-content tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), expanding on a 2010 recommendation for adults >65 that was limited to those with close contact with infants. We evaluated clinical and economic outcomes of adding Tdap booster of adults aged ≥65 to “baseline” practice [full-strength DTaP administered from 2 months to 4–6 years, and one dose of Tdap at 11–64 years replacing decennial Td booster], using a dynamic model.

Methods

We constructed a population-level disease transmission model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of supplementing baseline practice by vaccinating 10% of eligible adults aged ≥65 with Tdap replacing the decennial Td booster. US population effects, including indirect benefits accrued by unvaccinated persons, were estimated during a 1-year period after disease incidence reached a new steady state, with consequences of deaths and long-term pertussis sequelae projected over remaining lifetimes. Model outputs include: cases by severity, encephalopathy, deaths, costs (of vaccination and pertussis care) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each strategy. Results in terms of incremental cost/QALY gained are presented from payer and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses vary key parameters within plausible ranges.

Results

For the US population, the intervention is expected to prevent >97,000 cases (>4,000 severe and >5,000 among infants) of pertussis annually at steady state. Additional vaccination costs are $4.7 million. Net cost savings, including vaccination costs, are $47.7 million (societal perspective) and $44.8 million (payer perspective). From both perspectives, the intervention strategy is dominant (less costly, and more effective by >3,000 QALYs) versus baseline. Results are robust to sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios.

Conclusions

Immunization of eligible adults aged ≥65, consistent with the current ACIP recommendation, is cost saving from both payer and societal perspectives.     

Burden of Illness in UK Subjects with Reported Respiratory Infections Vaccinated or Unvaccinated against Influenza: A Retrospective Observational Study

Objective

Detailed data are lacking on influenza burden in the United Kingdom (UK). The objective of this study was to estimate the disease burden associated with influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United Kingdom stratified by age, risk and influenza vaccination status.

Methods

This retrospective, cross-sectional, exploratory, observational study used linked data from the General Practice Research Database and the Hospital Episode Statistics databases to estimate resource use and cost associated with ILI in the UK.

Results

Data were included from 156,193 patients with ≥1 general practitioner visit with ILI. There were 21,518 high-risk patients, of whom 12,514 (58.2%) were vaccinated and 9,004 (41.8%) were not vaccinated, and 134,675 low-risk patients, of whom 17,482 (13.0%) were vaccinated and 117,193 (87.0%) were not vaccinated. High-risk vaccinated patients were older (p<0.001) and had more risk conditions (p<0.001). High-risk (odds ratio [OR] 2.16) or vaccinated (OR 1.19) patients had a higher probability of >1 general practitioner visit compared with low-risk and unvaccinated patients. Patients who were high-risk and vaccinated had a reduced risk of >1 general practitioner visit (OR 0.82; p<0.001). High-risk individuals who were also vaccinated had a lower probability of ILI-related hospitalisation than individuals who were high-risk or vaccinated alone (OR 0.59). In people aged ≥65 years, the mortality rate was lower in vaccinated than unvaccinated individuals (OR 0.75). The cost of ILI-related GP visits and hospital admissions in the UK over the study period in low-risk vaccinated patients was £27,391,142 and £141,932,471, respectively. In low-risk unvaccinated patients the corresponding values were £168,318,709 and £112,534,130, respectively.

Conclusions

Although vaccination rates in target groups have increased, many people are still not receiving influenza vaccination, and the burden of ILI in the United Kingdom remains substantial. Improving influenza vaccination uptake may have the potential to reduce this burden.     

Evaluation of a proposed breast cancer screening regimen.

The Forrest working group on breast cancer screening recommended routine mammography for women in the United Kingdom at ages 50, 53, 56, 59, 62, and 65. Benefits were costed at about 3000 pounds for each life year recovered, but there was no estimate of the cost of each life saved, and the consequent reduction in mortality from breast cancer in the general population of the United Kingdom was not estimated. The present study addressed both of these issues using an interactive computer modelling process. Long term savings were calculated at 900 deaths a year in England and Wales--that is, about 8% of the total deaths from breast cancer--and 9% of life years currently lost. The cost of each death saved from breast cancer was estimated at 39,000 pounds.     

Prevalence of hardcore smoking in England,and associated attitudes and beliefs: cross sectional study

Objective To quantify the prevalence and characteristics of hardcore smokers in England.Design Cross sectional survey.Setting Interview in respondents'' household.Participants 7766 adult cigarette smokers.Main outcome measures Hardcore smoking defined by four criteria (less than a day without cigarettes in the past five years; no attempt to quit in the past year; no desire to quit; no intention to quit), all of which had to be satisfied.Results Some 16% of all smokers were categorised as hardcore. Hardcore smoking was associated with nicotine dependence, socioeconomic deprivation, and age, rising from 5% in young adults aged 16-24 to 30% in those aged ≥ 65 years. Hardcore smokers displayed distinctive attitudes towards and beliefs about smoking. In particular they were likely to deny that smoking affected their health or would do so in the future. Prevalence of hardcore smoking was almost four times higher than in California.Conclusion Hardcore smoking presents a serious challenge to public health efforts to reduce the prevalence of smoking, but the proportion of hardcore smokers does not necessarily increase as overall prevalence in a population declines. More hardcore smokers could be persuaded to quit, but this will require interventions that are targeted to the particular needs and perceptions of both socially disadvantaged and older smokers.     

The cost of premature death from cancer attributable to alcohol: Productivity losses in Europe in 2018

BackgroundMore than 1.9 million people die from cancer each year in Europe. Alcohol use is a major modifiable risk factor for cancer and poses an economic burden on society. We estimated the cost of productivity lost due to premature death (under 65 years of age) from alcohol-attributable cancer in the European Union (EU) plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018.MethodsWe estimated cancer deaths attributable to alcohol using a Levin-based population attributable fractions method and cancer deaths in 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Lost productivity was estimated for all alcohol-attributable cancer deaths by sex, cancer site, and country. Productivity losses were valued using the human capital approach.ResultsAn estimated 23,300 cancer deaths among people aged less than 65 in the EU plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK in 2018 were attributable to alcohol (18,200 males, 5100 females). This equated to €4.58 billion in total productivity losses in the region and 0.027 % of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The average cost per alcohol-attributable cancer death was €196,000. Productivity lost to alcohol-attributable cancer per capita was highest in Western Europe. Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Portugal had the highest rate of premature mortality from alcohol-attributable cancer and the highest productivity lost as a share of national GDP.ConclusionOur study provides estimates of lost productivity from alcohol-attributable cancer death in Europe. Cost-effective strategies to prevent alcohol-attributable cancer deaths could result in economic benefits for society and must be prioritised.     

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

Objective

Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

Methods

CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

Results

Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25–84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8–7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1–3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2–5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8–9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.     

Effectiveness of Inactivated Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-Associated Deaths and Hospitalizations among Ontario Residents Aged ≥65 Years: Estimates with Generalized Linear Models Accounting for Healthy Vaccinee Effects

Background

Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in older adults may be biased because of difficulties identifying and adjusting for confounders of the vaccine-outcome association. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for prevention of serious influenza complications among older persons by using methods to account for underlying differences in risk for these complications.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Ontario residents aged ≥65 years from September 1993 through September 2008. We linked weekly vaccination, hospitalization, and death records for 1.4 million community-dwelling persons aged ≥65 years. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by comparing ratios of outcome rates during weeks of high versus low influenza activity (defined by viral surveillance data) among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects by using log-linear regression models that accounted for temperature and time trends with natural spline functions. Effectiveness was estimated for three influenza-associated outcomes: all-cause deaths, deaths occurring within 30 days of pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations.

Results

During weeks when 5% of respiratory specimens tested positive for influenza A, vaccine effectiveness among persons aged ≥65 years was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], −6%–42%) for all influenza-associated deaths, 25% (95% CI, 13%–37%) for deaths occurring within 30 days after an influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalization, and 19% (95% CI, 4%–31%) for influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. Because small proportions of deaths, deaths after pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus circulation, we estimated that vaccination prevented 1.6%, 4.8%, and 4.1% of these outcomes, respectively.

Conclusions

By using confounding-reducing techniques with 15 years of provincial-level data including vaccination and health outcomes, we estimated that influenza vaccination prevented ∼4% of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths occurring after hospitalizations among older adults in Ontario.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccinating Immunocompetent ≥65 Year Olds with the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in England

Background

Recently a large clinical trial showed that the use of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) among immunocompetent individuals aged 65 years and over was safe and efficacious. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating immunocompetent 65 year olds with PCV13 vaccine in England. England is a country with universal childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programme in place (7-valent (PCV7) since 2006 and PCV13 since 2010), as well as a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide (PPV23) vaccination programme targeting clinical risk-groups and those ≥65 years.

Method

A static cohort cost-effectiveness model was developed to follow a cohort of 65 year olds until death, which will be vaccinated in the autumn of 2016 with PCV13. Sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of the results.

Results

The childhood vaccination programme with PCV7 has induced herd protection among older unvaccinated age groups, with a resultant low residual disease burden caused by PCV7 vaccine types. We show similar herd protection effects for the 6 additional serotypes included in PCV13, and project a new low post-introduction equilibrium of vaccine-type disease in 2018/19. Applying these incidence projections for both invasive disease and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and using recent measures of vaccine efficacy against these endpoints for ≥65 year olds, we estimate that vaccination of a cohort of immunocompetent 65 year olds with PCV13 would directly prevent 26 cases of IPD, 69 cases of CAP and 15 deaths. The associated cost-effectiveness ratio is £257,771 per QALY gained (using list price of £49.10 per dose and £7.51 administration costs) and is therefore considered not cost-effective. To obtain a cost-effective programme the price per dose would need to be negative. The results were sensitive to disease incidence, waning vaccine protection and case fatality rate; despite this, the overall conclusion was robust.

Conclusions

Vaccinating immunocompetent individuals aged ≥65 years with PCV13 is efficacious. However the absolute incidence of vaccine-type disease will likely become very low due to wider benefits of the childhood PCV13 vaccination programme, such that a specific PCV13 vaccination programme targeting the immunocompetent elderly would not be cost-effective.     

Helicobacter pylori test and treat versus proton pump inhibitor in initial management of dyspepsia in primary care: multicentre randomised controlled trial (MRC-CUBE trial)

Objective To determine the cost effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori “test and treat” compared with empirical acid suppression in the initial management of patients with dyspepsia in primary care.Design Randomised controlled trial.Setting 80 general practices in the United Kingdom.Participants 699 patients aged 18-65 who presented to their general practitioner with epigastric pain, heartburn, or both without “alarm symptoms” for malignancy.Intervention H pylori ¹³C urea breath test plus one week of eradication treatment if positive or proton pump inhibitor alone; subsequent management at general practitioner’s discretion.Main outcome measures Cost effectiveness in cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) (EQ-5D) and effect on dyspeptic symptoms at one year measured with short form Leeds dyspepsia questionnaire.Results 343 patients were randomised to testing for H pylori, and 100 were positive. The successful eradication rate was 78%. 356 patients received proton pump inhibitor for 28 days. At 12 months no significant differences existed between the two groups in QALYs, costs, or dyspeptic symptoms. Minor reductions in costly resource use over the year in the test and treat group “paid back” the initial cost of the intervention.Conclusions Test and treat and acid suppression are equally cost effective in the initial management of dyspepsia. Empirical acid suppression is an appropriate initial strategy. As costs are similar overall, general practitioners should discuss with patients at which point to consider H pylori testing.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN87644265.     

Cancer prevention: setting the scene.

Each year in the United Kingdom there are over 300,000 new cases of cancer and nearly 165,000 deaths from cancer. It is widely believed that as many as four fifths of all cancers are preventable by means that are already available. The Health of the Nation and the Europe Against Cancer programme have set targets and strategies for reducing the risk of cancer. An approach based on the whole population will achieve the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality. Complementary to this is the individual approach, which can be based in primary care and targeted at high risk subjects. Health promotion and screening in primary care are not in themselves self evidently valuable. Their effectiveness must be tested rigorously and scientifically. Furthermore, because of limited time and resources, health education in primary care should be focused on interventions that are likely to achieve the greatest benefit, such as helping people to stop smoking.     

Effect of Cigarette Smoking and Passive Smoking on Hearing Impairment: Data from a Population–Based Study

Objectives

In the present study, we aimed to determine the effect of both active and passive smoking on the prevalence of the hearing impairment and the hearing thresholds in different age groups through the analysis of data collected from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES).

Study Design

Cross-sectional epidemiological study.

Methods

The KNHANES is an ongoing population study that started in 1998. We included a total of 12,935 participants aged ≥19 years in the KNHANES, from 2010 to 2012, in the present study. Pure-tone audiometric (PTA) testing was conducted and the frequencies tested were 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 kHz. Smoking status was categorized into three groups; current smoking group, passive smoking group and non-smoking group.

Results

In the current smoking group, the prevalence of speech-frequency bilateral hearing impairment was increased in ages of 40−69, and the rate of high frequency bilateral hearing impairment was elevated in ages of 30−79. When we investigated the impact of smoking on hearing thresholds, we found that the current smoking group had significantly increased hearing thresholds compared to the passive smoking group and non-smoking groups, across all ages in both speech-relevant and high frequencies. The passive smoking group did not have an elevated prevalence of either speech-frequency bilateral hearing impairment or high frequency bilateral hearing impairment, except in ages of 40s. However, the passive smoking group had higher hearing thresholds than the non-smoking group in the 30s and 40s age groups.

Conclusion

Current smoking was associated with hearing impairment in both speech-relevant frequency and high frequency across all ages. However, except in the ages of 40s, passive smoking was not related to hearing impairment in either speech-relevant or high frequencies.     

Mortality amongst Patients with Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness,South Africa, 2009-2013

Introduction

Data on the burden and risk groups for influenza-associated mortality from Africa are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence and risk-factors for in-hospital influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) deaths.

Methods

Hospitalised patients with SARI were enrolled prospectively in four provinces of South Africa from 2009–2013. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA. The incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths was estimated at one urban hospital with a defined catchment population.

Results

We enrolled 1376 patients with influenza-associated SARI and 3% (41 of 1358 with available outcome data) died. In patients with available HIV-status, the case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in HIV-infected (5%, 22/419) than HIV-uninfected individuals (2%, 13/620; p = 0.006). CFPs varied by age group, and generally increased with increasing age amongst individuals >5 years (p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with death were age-group 45–64 years (odds ratio (OR) 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–16.3) and ≥65 years (OR 6.5, 95%CI 1.2–34.3) compared to 1–4 year age-group who had the lowest CFP, HIV-infection (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.1–7.8), underlying medical conditions other than HIV (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.2–7.3) and pneumococcal co-infection (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.5–11.2). The estimated incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths per 100,000 population was highest in children <1 year (20.1, 95%CI 12.1–31.3) and adults aged 45–64 years (10.4, 95%CI 8.4–12.9). Adjusting for age, the rate of death was 20-fold (95%CI 15.0–27.8) higher in HIV-infected individuals than HIV-uninfected individuals.

Conclusion

Influenza causes substantial mortality in urban South Africa, particularly in infants aged <1 year and HIV-infected individuals. More widespread access to antiretroviral treatment and influenza vaccination may reduce this burden.     

Economic Evaluation of Immunisation Programme of 23-Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine and the Inclusion of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in the List for Single-Dose Subsidy to the Elderly in Japan

BackgroundCurrently in Japan, both 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV–23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV–13) are available for the elderly for the prevention of S. pneumoniae-related diseases. PPSV–23 was approved in 1988, while the extended use of PCV–13 was approved for adults aged 65 and older in June 2014. Despite these two vaccines being available, the recently launched national immunisation programme for the elderly only subsidised PPSV–23. The framework of the current immunisation programme lasts for five years. The elderly population eligible for the subsidised PPSV–23 shot for the 1st year are those aged 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and ≥100. While from the 2nd year to the 5th year, those who will age 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 100 will receive the same subsidised shot.MethodsWe performed economic evaluations to (1) evaluate the efficiency of alternative strategies of PPSV–23 single-dose immunisation programme, and (2) investigate the efficiency of PCV–13 inclusion in the list for single-dose pneumococcal vaccine immunisation programme. Three alternative strategies were created in this study, namely: (1) current PPSV–23 strategy, (2) 65 to 80 (as “65–80 PPSV–23 strategy”), and (3) 65 and older (as “≥65 PPSV–23 strategy”). We constructed a Markov model depicting the S. pneumoniae-related disease course pathways. The transition probabilities, utility weights to estimate quality adjusted life year (QALY) and disease treatment costs were either calculated or cited from literature. Cost of per shot of vaccine was ¥8,116 (US$74; US$1 = ¥110) for PPSV–23 and ¥10,776 (US$98) for PCV–13. The model runs for 15 years with one year cycle after immunisation. Discounting was at 3%.ResultsCompared to current PPSV–23 strategy, 65–80 PPSV–23 strategy cost less but gained less, while the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of ≥65 PPSV–23 strategy was ¥5,025,000 (US$45,682) per QALY gained. PCV–13 inclusion into the list for single-dose subsidy has an ICER of ¥377,000 (US$3,427) per QALY gained regardless of the PCV–13 diffusion level. These ICERs were found to be cost-effective since they are lower than the suggested criterion by WHO of three times GDP (¥11,000,000 or US$113,636 per QALY gained), which is the benchmark used in judging the cost-effectiveness of an immunisation programmne.ConclusionsThe results suggest that switching current PPSV–23 strategy to ≥65 PPSV–23 strategy or including PCV–13 into the list for single-dose subsidy to the elderly in Japan has value for money.     

Six Year Refractive Change among White Children and Young Adults: Evidence for Significant Increase in Myopia among White UK Children

Objective

To determine six-year spherical refractive error change among white children and young adults in the UK and evaluate differences in refractive profiles between contemporary Australian children and historical UK data.

Design

Population-based prospective study.

Participants

The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction (NICER) study Phase 1 examined 1068 children in two cohorts aged 6–7 years and 12–13 years. Prospective data for six-year follow-up (Phase 3) are available for 212 12–13 year olds and 226 18–20 year olds in each cohort respectively.

Methods

Cycloplegic refractive error was determined using binocular open-field autorefraction (Shin-Nippon NVision-K 5001, cyclopentolate 1%). Participants were defined by spherical equivalent refraction (SER) as myopic SER ≤-0.50D, emmetropic -0.50D<SER<+2.00 or hyperopic SER≥+2.00D.

Main Outcome Measures

Proportion and incidence of myopia.

Results

The proportion of myopes significantly increased between 6–7 years (1.9%) and 12–13 years (14.6%) (p<0.001) but not between 12–13 and 18–20 years (16.4% to 18.6%, p = 0.51). The estimated annual incidence of myopia was 2.2% and 0.7% for the younger and older cohorts respectively. There were significantly more myopic children in the UK at age 12–13 years in the NICER study (16.4%) than reported in Australia (4.4%) (p<0.001). However by 17 years the proportion of myopia neared equivalence in the two populations (NICER 18.6%, Australia 17.7%, p = 0.75). The proportion of myopic children aged 12–13 years in the present study (2006–2008) was 16.4%, significantly greater than that reported for children aged 10–16 years in the 1960’s (7.2%, p = 0.01). The proportion of hyperopes in the younger NICER cohort decreased significantly over the six year period (from 21.7% to 14.2%, p = 0.04). Hyperopes with SER ≥+3.50D in both NICER age cohorts demonstrated persistent hyperopia.

Conclusions

The incidence and proportion of myopia are relatively low in this contemporary white UK population in comparison to other worldwide studies. The proportion of myopes in the UK has more than doubled over the last 50 years in children aged between 10–16 years and children are becoming myopic at a younger age. Differences between the proportion of myopes in the UK and in Australia apparent at 12–13 years were eliminated by 17 years of age.     

Hospital admissions for skin and soft tissue infections in a population with endemic scabies: A prospective study in Fiji, 2018–2019

Scabies is an important predisposing factor for impetigo but its role in more serious skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) is not well understood. Information is limited on incidence of SSTIs in the presence of endemic scabies. We conducted a prospective study of hospital admissions for SSTIs in the Northern Division of Fiji (population: 131,914). Prospective surveillance for admissions with impetigo, abscess, cellulitis, wound infection, pyomyositis, necrotizing fasciitis, infected scabies, and crusted scabies was conducted at the Division’s referral hospital between 2018 to 2019. Information was collected on demographic characteristics, clinical features, microbiology, treatment and outcomes. Over the study period, 788 SSTI admissions were recorded corresponding to a population incidence 647 per 100,000 person-years (95%CI 571–660). Incidence was highest at the extremes of age with peak incidence in children aged <5 years (908 per 100,000) and those aged ≥65 years (1127 per 100,000). Incidence was 1.7 times higher among the Indigenous Fijian population (753 per 100,000) compared to other ethnicities (442 per 100,000). Overall case fatality rate was 3.3%, and 10.8% for those aged ≥65 years. Scabies was diagnosed concurrently in 7.6% of all patients and in 24.6% of admitted children <5 years. There is a very high burden of hospital admissions for SSTIs in Fiji compared to high-income settings especially among the youngest, oldest and indigenous population which is concordant with scabies and impetigo distribution in this population. Our findings highlight the need for strategies to reduce the burden of SSTIs in Fiji and similar settings.     

Impact of the Spanish Smoking Law on Exposure to Second-Hand Smoke and Respiratory Health in Hospitality Workers: A Cohort Study

Background

A smoke-free law came into effect in Spain on 1st January 2006, affecting all enclosed workplaces except hospitality venues, whose proprietors can choose among totally a smoke-free policy, a partial restriction with designated smoking areas, or no restriction on smoking on the premises. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the law among hospitality workers by assessing second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure and the frequency of respiratory symptoms before and one year after the ban.

Methods and Finding

We formed a baseline cohort of 431 hospitality workers in Spain and 45 workers in Portugal and Andorra. Of them, 318 (66.8%) were successfully followed up 12 months after the ban, and 137 nonsmokers were included in this analysis. We obtained self-reported exposure to SHS and the presence of respiratory symptoms, and collected saliva samples for cotinine measurement. Salivary cotinine decreased by 55.6% after the ban among nonsmoker workers in venues where smoking was totally prohibited (from median of 1.6 ng/ml before to 0.5 ng/ml, p<0.01). Cotinine concentration decreased by 27.6% (p = 0.068) among workers in venues with designated smoking areas, and by 10.7% (p = 0.475) among workers in venues where smoking was allowed. In Portugal and Andorra, no differences between cotinine concentration were found before (1.2 ng/ml) and after the ban (1.2 ng/ml). In Spain, reported respiratory symptom declined significantly (by 71.9%; p<0.05) among workers in venues that became smoke-free. After adjustment for potential confounders, salivary cotinine and respiratory symptoms decreased significantly among workers in Spanish hospitality venues where smoking was totally banned.

Conclusions

Among nonsmoker hospitality workers in bars and restaurants where smoking was allowed, exposure to SHS after the ban remained similar to pre-law levels. The partial restrictions on smoking in Spanish hospitality venues do not sufficiently protect hospitality workers against SHS or its consequences for respiratory health.     

Mycobacterium ulcerans in the Elderly: More Severe Disease and Suboptimal Outcomes

Background

The clinical presentation of M. ulcerans disease and the safety and effectiveness of treatment may differ in elderly compared with younger populations related to relative immune defficiencies, co-morbidities and drug interactions. However, elderly populations with M. ulcerans disease have not been comprehensively studied.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A retrospective analysis was performed on an observational cohort of all confirmed M. ulcerans cases managed at Barwon Health from 1/1/1998-31/12/2014. The cohort included 327 patients; 131(40.0%) ≥65 years and 196(60.0%) <65 years of age. Patients ≥65 years had a shorter median duration of symptoms prior to diagnosis (p<0.01), a higher proportion with diabetes (p<0.001) and immune suppression (p<0.001), and were more likely to have lesions that were multiple (OR 4.67, 95% CI 1.78–12.31, p<0.001) and WHO category 3 (OR 4.59, 95% CI 1.98–10.59, p<0.001). Antibiotic complications occurred in 69(24.3%) treatment episodes at an increased incidence in those aged ≥65 years (OR 5.29, 95% CI 2.81–9.98, p<0.001). There were 4(1.2%) deaths, with significantly more in the age-group ≥65 years (4 compared with 0 deaths, p = 0.01). The overall treatment success rate was 92.2%. For the age-group ≥65 years there was a reduced rate of treatment success overall (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.14–0.80, p = <0.01) and when surgery was used alone (OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.06–0.76, p<0.01). Patients ≥65 years were more likely to have a paradoxical reaction (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.17–3.62, p = 0.01).

Conclusions/Significance

Elderly patients comprise a significant proportion of M. ulcerans disease patients in Australian populations and present with more severe and advanced disease forms. Currently recommended treatments are associated with increased toxicity and reduced effectiveness in elderly populations. Increased efforts are required to diagnose M. ulcerans earlier in elderly populations, and research is urgently required to develop more effective and less toxic treatments for this age-group.