急性病毒性肝炎的发病率慢性肝炎患病率和肝病死亡率的研究

1984～1987年,在黑龙江、河北、河南、湖南、上海五个省市城乡10.08855人口中进行急性肝炎发病率、慢性肝炎患病率、与病毒性肝炎有关的肝病死亡率的研究。急性肝炎标化发病率为152.19/10万,主要发生在20～50岁组人群;因无甲肝暴发流行,除上海外各点季节发病率分布均衡。慢性肝炎标化患病率为158.25/10万(诊断标准为6个月前有明确急性肝炎病史,现有明显的临床症状或体征,肝功能异常,故实际慢肝患病率要高于此数字);与病毒性肝炎有关的肝病死亡(包括肝癌)标化率为22.65/10万,其中肝病为 13.14/10万。男性死亡率显著高于女性。     

Human Rabies in China, 1960-2014: A Descriptive Epidemiological Study

BackgroundRabies in China remains a public health problem. In 2014, nearly one thousand rabies-related deaths were reported while rabies geographic distribution has expanded for the recent years. This report used surveillance data to describe the epidemiological characteristics of human rabies in China including determining high-risk areas and seasonality to support national rabies prevention and control activities.MethodsWe analyzed the incidence and distribution of human rabies cases in mainland China using notifiable surveillance data from 1960–2014, which includes a detailed analysis of the recent years from 2004 to 2014.ResultsFrom 1960 to 2014, 120,913 human rabies cases were reported in mainland China. The highest number was recorded in 1981(0.7/100,000; 7037 cases), and in 2007(0.3/100,000; 3300 cases). A clear seasonal pattern has been observed with a peak in August (11.0% of total cases), Human rabies cases were reported in all provinces with a yearly average of 2198 from 1960 to 2014 in China, while the east and south regions were more seriously affected compared with other regions. From2004 to 2014, although the number of cases decreased by 65.2% since 2004 from 2651 to 924 cases, reported areas has paradoxically expanded from 162 prefectures to 200 prefectures and from southern to the central and northern provinces of China. Farmers accounted most of the cases (65.0%); 50–59 age group accounted for the highest proportion (20.5%), and cases are predominantly males with a male-to-female ratio of 2.4:1 on average.ConclusionsDespite the overall steady decline of cases since the peak in 2007, the occurrence of cases in new areas and the spread trend were obvious in China in recent years. Further investigations and efforts are warranted in the areas have high rabies incidence to control rabies by interrupting transmission from dogs to humans and in the dog population. Furthermore, elimination of rabies should be eventually the ultimate goal for China.     

The Incidence and Prevalence of Common Variable Immunodeficiency Disease in Taiwan,A Population-Based Study

Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is one of the primary immunodeficiency diseases that occur in both children and adults. We present here a nationwide, population-based epidemiological study of CVID across all ages in Taiwan during 2002–2011. Using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code 279.06, cases of CVID were identified from Taiwan''s National Health Insurance Research Database from January 2002 to December 2011. Age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence rates were calculated. A total of 47 new cases of CVID during 2002–2011 were identified. Total prevalence rose from 0.13 per 100,000 in 2002 to 0.28 per 100,000 in 2011. The annual incidence rate during 2002–2011 was 0.019 per 100,000. Cases were equally distributed between males and females and males mostly occurred in younger patients. This nationwide population-based study showed that the incidence and prevalence of CVID in Taiwan were lower than that in Western countries.     

Epidemiology of snake envenomation from Mato Grosso do Sul,Brazil

Snake envenomation is considered a public health problem in tropical countries, where they occur in a high incidence. The present study reports the snake envenomation that occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul state (Brazil) between 2007 and 2017. Epidemiological data were obtained from the online platform of the Notification Disease Information System and were analyzed according to biome. A total of 5568 cases of snake envenomations were recorded during the study period, where the highest frequency was registered between October and April. The majority of envenomations occurred in working-age males (20 to 39 years), caused mainly by Bothrops snakes, and the duration of care after the envenomation in most cases took three hours. The municipalities that showed the highest snake envenomations case per 100,000 inhabitants presents low population density, and have their economy based on agricultural activity, which is a risk factor to snake envenomations. To the Mato Grosso do Sul state, the total number of snake envenomations had a positive relationship with the size of the municipality. Since this, larger areas usually have a mosaic of environments, which may harbor higher richness and abundance of snakes, and can cause more snake encounters with the population, resulting in more snake envenomations.     

Burden of disease due to cancer in a Southern Brazilian state

Background: Despite the considerable epidemiological relevance of cancer in developing countries, there are very few studies of the burden related to cancer. The aim of this study was to present and discuss data from a burden-of-cancer study performed in a Southern Brazilian state. Methods: An epidemiological study of ecological design was performed to calculate the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) index. The study was based on records of individuals admitted and treated for cancer in the Brazilian National Health System Hospitals, or individuals who had died of cancer while residing in the state of Santa Catarina in 2008. Results: A total of 73,872.9 DALYs were estimated, which generated a rate of 1220.5 DALYs/100,000 inhabitants. The highest DALYs were those for cancer of the trachea, bronchus and lung with 179.0/100,000 inhabitants, gastric cancer with 101.7/100,000 inhabitants, and breast cancer with 99.7/100,000 inhabitants. The percentage contribution of the DALY component varied according to cancer type; however, mortality was the major component in all types. The highest rates were observed in 60–69-year-olds with 6071.3/100,000 inhabitants, in 70–79-year-olds with 5095.4/100,000 inhabitants, and in 45–59-year-olds with 3189.0 DALY/100,000 inhabitants; 53.7% of DALYs occurred in males. Conclusions: The greatest burden of disease due to cancer in Santa Catarina was attributed to cancer of the trachea, bronchus and lung, followed by gastric and breast cancers. The mortality component was responsible for the greatest burden.     

Profile of cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean region: The need for action

BackgroundMany countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are undergoing marked demographic and socioeconomic transitions that are increasing the cancer burden in region. We sought to examine the national cancer incidence and mortality profiles as a support to regional cancer control planning in the EMR.MethodsGLOBOCAN 2012 data were used to estimate cancer incidence and mortality by country, cancer type, sex and age in 22 EMR countries. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) using direct method of standardization.ResultsThe cancer incidence and mortality rates vary considerably between countries in the EMR. Incidence rates were highest in Lebanon (204 and 193 per 100,000 in males and females, respectively). Mortality rates were highest in Lebanon (119) and Egypt (121) among males and in Somalia (117) among females. The profile of common cancers differs substantially by sex. For females, breast cancer is the most common cancer in all 22 countries, followed by cervical cancer, which ranks high only in the lower-income countries in the region. For males, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer in combination represent almost 30% of the cancer burden in countries that have attained very high levels of human development.ConclusionsThe most common cancers are largely amenable to preventive strategies by primary and/or secondary prevention, hence a need for effective interventions tackling lifestyle risk factors and infections. The high mortality observed from breast and cervical cancer highlights the need to break the stigmas and improve awareness surrounding these cancers.     

The association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta,China during 2013-2018: A time-stratified case-crossover study

BackgroundStudies have shown that tropical cyclones are associated with several infectious diseases, while very few evidence has demonstrated the relationship between tropical cyclones and dengue fever. This study aimed to examine the potential impact of tropical cyclones on dengue fever incidence in the Pearl River Delta, China.MethodsData on daily dengue fever incidence, occurrence of tropical cyclones and meteorological factors were collected between June and October, 2013–2018 from nine cities in the Pearl River Delta. Multicollinearity of meteorological variables was examined via Spearman correlation, variables with strong correlation (r>0.7) were not included in the model simultaneously. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with conditional Poisson regression model was performed to evaluate the association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever incidence. Stratified analyses were performed by intensity grades of tropical cyclones (tropical storm and typhoon), sex (male and female) and age-groups (<18, 18–59, ≥60 years).ResultsDuring the study period, 20 tropical cyclones occurred and 47,784 dengue fever cases were reported. Tropical cyclones were associated with an increased risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta region, with the largest relative risk of 1.62 with the 95% confidence interval (1.45–1.80) occurring on the lag 5 day. The strength of association was greater and lasted longer for typhoon than for tropical storm. There was no difference in effect estimates between males and females. However, individuals aged over 60 years were more vulnerable than others.ConclusionsTropical cyclones are associated with increased risk of local dengue fever incidence in south China, with the elderly more vulnerable than other population subgroups. Health protective strategies should be developed to reduce the potential risk of dengue epidemic after tropical cyclones.     

Epidemiological investigation and physician awareness regarding the diagnosis and management of Q fever in South Korea, 2011 to 2017

BackgroundIn South Korea, the number of Q fever cases has rapidly increased since 2015. Therefore, this study aimed to characterize the epidemiological and clinical features of Q fever in South Korea between 2011 and 2017.Methods/Principal findingsWe analyzed the epidemiological investigations and reviewed the medical records from all hospitals that had reported at least one case of Q fever from 2011 to 2017. We also conducted an online survey to investigate physicians’ awareness regarding how to appropriately diagnose and manage Q fever. The nationwide incidence rate of Q fever was annually 0.07 cases per 100,000 persons. However, there has been a sharp increase in its incidence, reaching up to 0.19 cases per 100,000 persons in 2017. Q fever sporadically occurred across the country, with the highest incidences in Chungbuk (0.53 cases per 100,000 persons per year) and Chungnam (0.27 cases per 100,000 persons per year) areas. Patients with acute Q fever primarily presented with mild illnesses such as hepatitis (64.5%) and isolated febrile illness (24.0%), whereas those with chronic Q fever were likely to undergo surgery (41.2%) and had a high mortality rate (23.5%). Follow-up for 6 months after acute Q fever was performed by 24.0% of the physician respondents, and only 22.3% of them reported that clinical and serological evaluations were required after acute Q fever diagnosis.ConclusionsQ fever is becoming an endemic disease in the midwestern area of South Korea. Given the clinical severity and mortality of chronic Q fever, physicians should be made aware of appropriate diagnosis and management strategies for Q fever.     

Mortality and Case Fatality Due to Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Nationwide Analysis of Epidemiology,Trends and Spatial Patterns

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a significant public health problem in Brazil and several regions of the world. This study investigated the magnitude, temporal trends and spatial distribution of mortality related to VL in Brazil.

Methods

We performed a study based on secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. We included all deaths in Brazil from 2000 to 2011, in which VL was recorded as cause of death. We present epidemiological characteristics, trend analysis of mortality and case fatality rates by joinpoint regression models, and spatial analysis using municipalities as geographical units of analysis.

Results

In the study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil. VL was mentioned in 3,322 (0.03%) deaths. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.15 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and case fatality rate 8.1%. Highest mortality rates were observed in males (0.19 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), <1 year-olds (1.03 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) and residents in Northeast region (0.30 deaths/100,000 inhabitants). Highest case fatality rates were observed in males (8.8%), ≥70 year-olds (43.8%) and residents in South region (17.7%). Mortality and case fatality rates showed a significant increase in Brazil over the period, with different patterns between regions: increasing mortality rates in the North (Annual Percent Change – APC: 9.4%; 95% confidence interval – CI: 5.3 to 13.6), and Southeast (APC: 8.1%; 95% CI: 2.6 to 13.9); and increasing case fatality rates in the Northeast (APC: 4.0%; 95% CI: 0.8 to 7.4). Spatial analysis identified a major cluster of high mortality encompassing a wide geographic range in North and Northeast Brazil.

Conclusions

Despite ongoing control strategies, mortality related to VL in Brazil is increasing. Mortality and case fatality vary considerably between regions, and surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in high-risk clusters. Early diagnosis and treatment are fundamental strategies for reducing case fatality of VL in Brazil.     

Incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer on a rapid rise in Taiwan, 1999–2012

BackgroundAccumulating data has revealed a rapidly rising incidence of pancreatic cancer in Western countries, but convincing evidence from the East remains sparse. We aimed to quantify how the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy changed over time in Taiwan, and to develop future projection for the next decade.MethodsThis nationwide population-based study analyzed the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry to calculate the annual incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy from 1999 to 2012 in this country. The secular trend of the incidence was also examined by data from the National Health Insurance Research Database.ResultsA total of 21,986 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 20,720 related deaths occurred during the study period. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2012, with a significant rising trend (P < 0.01). The increase was nationwide, consistently across subgroups stratified by age, gender, geographic region, and urbanization. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database corroborated the rise of incident pancreatic cancer. Mortality also increased with time, with the age-standardized rate rising from 3.5 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (P < 0.01). In accordance with the incidence, the mortality trend was consistent in all subgroups. Both the incidence and mortality were projected to further increase by approximately 20% from 2012 to 2027.ConclusionThe incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer have been rapidly rising and presumably will continue to rise in Taiwan.     

Estimating the Burden of Leptospirosis among Febrile Subjects Aged below 20 Years in Kampong Cham Communities,Cambodia, 2007-2009

BackgroundLeptospirosis is an emerging but neglected public health challenge in the Asia/Pacific Region with an annual incidence estimated at 10–100 per 100,000 population. No accurate data, however, are available for at-risk rural Cambodian communities.MethodWe conducted anonymous, unlinked testing for IgM antibodies to Leptospira spp. on paired sera of Cambodian patients <20 years of age between 2007–2009 collected through active, community-based surveillance for febrile illnesses in a convenience sample of 27 rural and semi-rural villages in four districts of Kampong Cham province, Cambodia. Leptospirosis testing was done on paired serological samples negative for Dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Chikungunya viruses after random selection. Convalescent samples found positive while initial samples were negative were considered as proof of acute infection. We then applied a mathematical model to estimate the risk of fever caused by leptospirosis, dengue or other causes in rural Cambodia.ResultsA total of 630 samples are coming from a randomly selected subset of 2358 samples. IgM positive were found on the convalescent serum sample, among which 100 (15.8%) samples were IgM negative on an earlier sample. Seventeen of these 100 seroconversions were confirmed using a Microagglutination Test. We estimated the probability of having a fever due to leptospirosis at 1. 03% (95% Credible Interval CI: 0. 95%–1. 22%) per semester. In comparison, this probability was 2. 61% (95% CI: 2. 55%, 2. 83%) for dengue and 17. 65% (95% CI: 17. 49%, 18. 08%) for other causes.ConclusionOur data from febrile cases aged below 20 years suggest that the burden of leptospirosis is high in rural Cambodian communities. This is especially true during the rainy season, even in the absence of identified epidemics.     

Incidence and Mortality Trends in German Women with Breast Cancer Using Age,Period and Cohort 1999 to 2008

Longitudinal analysis investigates period (P), often as years. Additional scales of time are age (A) and birth cohort (C) Aim of our study was to use ecological APC analysis for women breast cancer incidence and mortality in Germany. Nation-wide new cases and deaths were obtained from Robert Koch Institute and female population from federal statistics, 1999–2008. Data was stratified into ten 5-years age-groups starting 20–24 years, ten birth cohorts starting 1939–43, and two calendar periods 1999–2003 and 2004–2008. Annual incidence and mortality were calculated: cases to 100,000 women per year. Data was analyzed using glm and apc packages of R. Breast cancer incidence and mortality increased with age. Secular rise in breast cancer incidence and decline in mortality was observed for period1999-2008. Breast cancer incidence and mortality declined with cohorts; cohorts 1950s showed highest incidence and mortality. Age-cohort best explained incidence and mortality followed by age-period-cohort with overall declining trends. Declining age-cohort mortality could be probable. Declining age-cohort incidence would require future biological explanations or rendered statistical artefact. Cohorts 1949–1958 could be unique in having highest incidence and mortality in recent time or future period associations could emerge relatively stronger to cohort to provide additional explanation of temporal change over cohorts.     

A retrospective analysis of human cystic echinococcosis in Sardinia (Italy), an endemic Mediterranean region,from 2001 to 2005

To assess the current impact of human CE in Sardinia (Italy) and to monitor the changes over time, a survey has been carried out for the period 2001–2005 using hospital inpatient discharge reports (HDR) as information source, supplementing data wherever possible with additional information retrieved directly from medical records. The total of 726 admissions with “Echinococcosis” as primary diagnosis (annual rate of 8.9 per 100,000 inhabitants) concerned 540 CE cases with an annual mean incidence rate of 6.62 per 100,000 inhabitants. Male-to-female ratio was 1.36, suggesting a marked risk associated with traditional male occupations. Age-specific incidence showed increasing rates of clinical CE with age for both genders. The liver was found to be the most common localization, affecting 72% of patients, while pulmonary CE was more frequent in males than in females. CE risk was unevenly distributed in the island. The more pastoral areas had the highest probability of humans becoming infected, with an incidence rate of clinical cases of ~ 14.0 per 100,000 for areas with sheep/inhabitants index of > 6. Compared to the past, incidence rates appear to be decreasing both for pulmonary and hepatic localizations, while there is a reversal of the CE “urbanization” trend resulting in “ruralization”, accompanied by a greater degree of parasite ecological “isolation” and focus-points of infection risk. In spite of this decrease, the cost of hospital care alone (~4 million euros) suggests that the monetary plus non-monetary costs of CE are still very high but not fully recognised.     

Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis

BackgroundLeptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood.Methods and findingsFrom March 1996—March 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and meteorological anomalies in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend, and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with higher than expected rainfall, lower than expected temperature and higher than expected humidity. There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall anomaly of 20 mm increased the risk of leptospirosis by 12% compared to a week following the expected seasonal pattern. Finally, over the 14-year study period, the annual incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by a factor of 2.7 (8.3 versus 3.0 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate.ConclusionsStrategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after low-level or extreme high-level rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals.     

Epidemiological and Molecular Characterization of Invasive Meningococcal Disease in Italy, 2008/09-2012/13

BackgroundFollowing the introduction of meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine in Italy in 2005, changes in the epidemiology of Invasive Meningococcal Disease (IMD) were expected. The study aims were to describe the epidemiological trend and to characterize the isolates collected during the period 2008/09-2012/13 by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Data on laboratory confirmed meningococcal diseases from National Surveillance System of IMD were reported.MethodsPoisson regression models were used to estimate the incidence rate over time. Serogrouping and MLST were performed following published methods.ResultsThe incidence rate of laboratory confirmed meningococcal disease decreased from 0.33 per 100,000 population in 2008/09 to 0.25 per 100,000 population in 2012/13. The serogroup B incidence rate was significantly higher (p<0.01) than that of other serogroups, among all age groups. The significant decrease of the IMD incidence rate (p = 0.01) reflects the decrease of serogroup B and C, in particular among individuals aged 15–24 years old (p<0.01). On the other hand, serogroup Y incidence increased during the period (from 0.01/100,000 in 2008/09 to 0.02/100,000 in 2012/13, p = 0.05). Molecular characterizations revealed that ST–41/44 cc and ST–11 cc were the main clonal complexes identified among serogroup B and C isolates, respectively. In particular, ST–41/44 cc was predominant in all age groups, whereas ST–11 cc was not identified in infants less than 1 year of age.ConclusionsIMD incidence declined in Italy and serogroup B caused most of the IMD cases, with infants having the highest risk of disease. Continued surveillance is needed to provide information concerning further changes in circulating meningococci with special regard to serogroup distribution. Moreover, knowledge of meningococcal genotypes is essential to detect hyper-invasive strains.     

Population-Based Incidence Rates of Diarrheal Disease Associated with Norovirus,Sapovirus, and Astrovirus in Kenya

BackgroundDiarrheal diseases remain a major cause of mortality in Africa and worldwide. While the burden of rotavirus is well described, population-based rates of disease caused by norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus are lacking, particularly in developing countries.MethodsData on diarrhea cases were collected through a population-based surveillance platform including healthcare encounters and household visits in Kenya. We analyzed data from June 2007 to October 2008 in Lwak, a rural site in western Kenya, and from October 2006 to February 2009 in Kibera, an urban slum. Stool specimens from diarrhea cases of all ages who visited study clinics were tested for norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus by RT-PCR.ResultsOf 334 stool specimens from Lwak and 524 from Kibera, 85 (25%) and 159 (30%) were positive for norovirus, 13 (4%) and 31 (6%) for sapovirus, and 28 (8%) and 18 (3%) for astrovirus, respectively. Among norovirus-positive specimens, genogroup II predominated in both sites, detected in 74 (87%) in Lwak and 140 (88%) in Kibera. The adjusted community incidence per 100,000 person-years was the highest for norovirus (Lwak: 9,635; Kibera: 4,116), followed by astrovirus (Lwak: 3,051; Kibera: 440) and sapovirus (Lwak: 1,445; Kibera: 879). For all viruses, the adjusted incidence was higher among children aged <5 years (norovirus: 22,225 in Lwak and 17,511 in Kibera; sapovirus: 5,556 in Lwak and 4,378 in Kibera; astrovirus: 11,113 in Lwak and 2,814 in Kibera) compared to cases aged ≥5 years.ConclusionAlthough limited by a lack of controls, this is the first study to estimate the outpatient and community incidence rates of norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus across the age spectrum in Kenya, suggesting a substantial disease burden imposed by these viruses. By applying adjusted rates, we estimate approximately 2.8–3.3 million, 0.45–0.54 million, and 0.77–0.95 million people become ill with norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus, respectively, every year in Kenya.     

The remarkable geographical pattern of gastric cancer mortality in Ecuador

AimThis study was aimed to describe the gastric cancer mortality trend, and to analyze the spatial distribution of gastric cancer mortality in Ecuador, between 2004 and 2015.MethodsData were collected from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) database. Crude gastric cancer mortality rates, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and indirect standardized mortality rates (ISMRs) were calculated per 100,000 persons. For time trend analysis, joinpoint regression was used. The annual percentage rate change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was computed for each province. Spatial age-adjusted analysis was used to detect high risk clusters of gastric cancer mortality, from 2010 to 2015, using Kulldorff spatial scan statistics.ResultsIn Ecuador, between 2004 and 2015, gastric cancer caused a total of 19,115 deaths: 10,679 in men and 8436 in women. When crude rates were analyzed, a significant decline was detected (AAPC: −1.8%; p < 0.001). ISMR also decreased, but this change was not statistically significant (APC: −0.53%; p = 0.36). From 2004 to 2007 and from 2008 to 2011 the province with the highest ISMR was Carchi; and, from 2012 to 2015, was Cotopaxi. The most likely high occurrence cluster included Bolívar, Los Ríos, Chimborazo, Tungurahua, and Cotopaxi provinces, with a relative risk of 1.34 (p < 0.001).ConclusionThere is a substantial geographic variation in gastric cancer mortality rates among Ecuadorian provinces. The spatial analysis indicates the presence of high occurrence clusters throughout the Andes Mountains.     

Incidence of multiple myeloma in Kailuan cohort: A prospective community-based study in China

BackgroundPrevious retrospective studies showed that the incidence and mortality rates for MM in China were lower than those in western countries. A large-scale prospective study on incidence and mortality rates of MM is still lacking.MethodsBased on the prospective Kailuan Cohort study in China, we included all patients with MM in Kailuan Cohort from June 1, 2008 to December 31, 2016. Using the numbers of diagnosed cases and deaths during the study period as the numerators and the corresponding observed person-years as the denominators respectively, we calculated crude incidence and mortality rates. The 95% confidence intervals for crude incidence rate and mortality rate were estimated base on Poisson distribution. Rates were standardized by direct standardization according to the China population in 2000 and Segi’ world standard population.ResultsA total of 22 members from Kailuan Cohort were first diagnosed with MM between 2008 and 2016. The calculated crude incidence rates were 2.8 (95% CI, 1.7–4.2) per 100,000 person-years for all participants. The standardized incidence rate was 0.9 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.5–2.1) when standardized by 2000 China population census data, and 1.0 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.6–1.8) when standardized by Segi’s world standard population (WSP). The calculated crude mortality rates were 2.3 (95% CI, 1.4–3.6) per 100,000 person-years. The mortality standardized by 2000 China population census data was 0.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.3–1.9), and 0.9 per 100,000 population (95% CI, 0.5–1.7) when standardized by Segi’s WSP. Both incidence and mortality for males were higher than that for females almost in all age groups. Both rates increased steadily with age.ConclusionIn this community-based prospective cohort study, we found that the incidence of MM in China was far lower than that in American and Europe.     

Incidence and Epidemiology of Hospitalized Influenza Cases in Rural Thailand during the Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 Pandemic, 2009–2010

Background

Data on the burden of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Asia are limited. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was first reported in Thailand in May 2009. We assessed incidence and epidemiology of influenza-associated hospitalizations during 2009–2010.

Methods

We conducted active, population-based surveillance for hospitalized cases of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in all 20 hospitals in two rural provinces. ALRI patients were sampled 1∶2 for participation in an etiology study in which nasopharyngeal swabs were collected for influenza virus testing by PCR.

Results

Of 7,207 patients tested, 902 (12.5%) were influenza-positive, including 190 (7.8%) of 2,436 children aged <5 years; 86% were influenza A virus (46% A(H1N1)pdm09, 30% H3N2, 6.5% H1N1, 3.5% not subtyped) and 13% were influenza B virus. Cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 first peaked in August 2009 when 17% of tested patients were positive. Subsequent peaks during 2009 and 2010 represented a mix of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, H3N2, and influenza B viruses. The estimated annual incidence of hospitalized influenza cases was 136 per 100,000, highest in ages <5 years (477 per 100,000) and >75 years (407 per 100,000). The incidence of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 62 per 100,000 (214 per 100,000 in children <5 years). Eleven influenza-infected patients required mechanical ventilation, and four patients died, all adults with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (1) or H3N2 (3).

Conclusions

Influenza-associated hospitalization rates in Thailand during 2009–10 were substantial and exceeded rates described in western countries. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 predominated, but H3N2 also caused notable morbidity. Expanded influenza vaccination coverage could have considerable public health impact, especially in young children.     

Estimating Leptospirosis Incidence Using Hospital-Based Surveillance and a Population-Based Health Care Utilization Survey in Tanzania

Background

The incidence of leptospirosis, a neglected zoonotic disease, is uncertain in Tanzania and much of sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in scarce data on which to prioritize resources for public health interventions and disease control. In this study, we estimate the incidence of leptospirosis in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a population-based household health care utilization survey in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania and identified leptospirosis cases at two hospital-based fever sentinel surveillance sites in the Kilimanjaro Region. We used multipliers derived from the health care utilization survey and case numbers from hospital-based surveillance to calculate the incidence of leptospirosis. A total of 810 households were enrolled in the health care utilization survey and multipliers were derived based on responses to questions about health care seeking in the event of febrile illness. Of patients enrolled in fever surveillance over a 1 year period and residing in the 2 districts, 42 (7.14%) of 588 met the case definition for confirmed or probable leptospirosis. After applying multipliers to account for hospital selection, test sensitivity, and study enrollment, we estimated the overall incidence of leptospirosis ranges from 75–102 cases per 100,000 persons annually.

Conclusions/Significance

We calculated a high incidence of leptospirosis in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, where leptospirosis incidence was previously unknown. Multiplier methods, such as used in this study, may be a feasible method of improving availability of incidence estimates for neglected diseases, such as leptospirosis, in resource constrained settings.