An exploratory model of the impact of rapid climate change on the world food situation

A simple, globally aggregated, stochastic-simulation model was constructed to examine the effects of rapid climatic change on agriculture and the human population. The model calculates population size and the production, consumption and storage of grain under different climate scenarios over a 20-year projection time. In most scenarios, either an optimistic baseline annual increase of agricultural output of 1.7% or a more pessimistic appraisal of 0.9% was used. The rate of natural increase of the human population exclusive of excess hunger-related deaths was set as 1.7% per year and climatic changes with both negative and positive impacts on agriculture were assessed. Analysis of the model suggests that the number of hunger-related deaths could double (with reference to an estimated 200 million deaths in the past two decades) if grain production keeps pace with population growth but climatic conditions are unfavourable. If the rate of increase in grain production is about half that of population growth, the number of hunger-related deaths could increase about fivefold (over past levels); the impact of climatic change is relatively small under this imbalance. Even favourable climatic changes that enhance agricultural production may not prevent a fourfold increase in deaths (over past levels) under scenarios where population growth outpaces production by about 0.8% per annum. These results may foreshadow a fundamental change where, for the first time, absolute global food deficits compound inequities in food production and distribution in causing famine. The model also highlights the effectiveness of reducing population growth rates as a strategy for minimizing the impact of global climate change and maintaining food supplies for everyone.     

Nutritional regulation of serum osteocalcin: study in kwashiorkor

The serum levels of osteocalcin (bone gla protein) in two groups of Senegalese children, healthy controls and severely malnourished (kwashiorkor) children during nutritional rehabilitation, were measured. The serum osteocalcin of all kwashiorkor children was dramatically decreased on admission to hospital, but increased fourfold during rehabilitation. Serum osteocalcin was low in the control group. In both groups these low levels seemed to be independent of those of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamine D3 which were in the normal range. The results suggest that serum osteocalcin levels might be related to protein-energy status.     

Old world blowflies in the new world

Human activity, particularly migration and the export of live animals, can provide vehicles for the dispersal of many parasites and their vectors. These movements, often overlooked until too late, provide potential for epidemic outbreaks and can profoundly alter accepted ideas on the geographic distribution and epidemiological status of particular species. In this review, Brian Laurence discusses the recent rapid spread of blowflies into the americas; these conspicious green flies transport a variety of gastro-intestinal pathogens between their favoured environments of latrines and exposed food, and some species are important parasites of flesh wounds, causing cutaneous myiasis.     

A window on the world of plants

A report on the seventh meeting of the International Society for Plant Molecular Biology (ISPMB), Barcelona, Spain, 23-28 June 2003.