Beta-blocker use and COPD mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Despite the benefits of beta-blockers in patients with established or sub-clinical coronary artery disease, their use in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been controversial. Currently, no systematic review has examined the impact of beta-blockers on mortality in COPD. METHODS: We systematically searched electronic bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library for clinical studies that examine the association between beta-blocker use and all cause mortality in patients with COPD. Risk ratios across studies were pooled using random effects models to estimate a pooled relative risk across studies. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot. RESULTS: Our search identified nine retrospective cohort studies that met the study inclusion criteria. The pooled relative risk of COPD related mortality secondary to beta-blocker use was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.62-0.78; I2=82%). CONCLUSION: The results of this review are consistent with a protective effect of beta-blockers with respect to all cause mortality. Due to the observational nature of the included studies, the possibility of confounding that may have affected these results cannot be excluded. The hypothesis that beta blocker therapy might be of benefit in COPD needs to be evaluated in randomised controlled trials.     

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.     

Pulmonary biomarkers in COPD exacerbations: a systematic review

Exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD) represent a major burden for patients and health care systems. Innovative sampling techniques have led to the identification of several pulmonary biomarkers. Although some molecules are promising, their usefulness in clinical practice is not yet established. Medline and Highwire databases were used to identify studies evaluating pulmonary sampled biomarkers in ECOPD. We combined 3 terms for ECOPD, 3 for biomarkers and 6 for the sampling method. Seventy-nine studies were considered eligible for inclusion in the review and were analyzed further. Pulmonary biomarkers sampled with non-invasive, semi-invasive and invasive methods were evaluated for their potential to illustrate the disease’s clinical course, to correlate to clinical variables and to predict clinical outcomes, ECOPD etiology and response to treatment. According to published data several pulmonary biomarkers assessed in ECOPD have the potential to illustrate the natural history of disease through the modification of their levels. Among the clinically relevant molecules, those that have been studied the most and appear to be promising are spontaneous and induced sputum biomarkers for reflecting clinical severity and symptomatic recovery, as well as for directing towards an etiological diagnosis. Current evidence on the clinical usefulness of exhaled breath condensate and bronchoalveolar lavage biomarkers in ECOPD is limited. In conclusion, pulmonary biomarkers have the potential to provide information on the mechanisms underlying ECOPD, and several correlate with clinical variables and outcomes. However, on the basis of published evidence, no single molecule is adequately validated for wide clinical use. Clinical trials that incorporate biomarkers in decisional algorithms are required.     

Statins reduce all-cause mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Background

Recent observational studies have suggested that use of statins reduces mortality in patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, no meta-analysis has reported the pooled hazard ratio of statins to all-cause mortality.

Methods

We searched for eligible articles using five databases. We included randomized controlled trials and cohort studies written in English using original data reporting the hazard ratio of statins to all-cause, cardiovascular-related, cancer-related, or respiratory-related mortality. A fixed model with the confidence interval method was used. Publication bias was evaluated by funnel plot and Begg’s test, and was corrected using Duval’s trim and fill method. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted.

Results

We included 10 out of 128 articles. The pooled hazard ratio of statins to all-cause mortality involving 16269 patients was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75-0.86, P < 0.001) with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 52%, P = 0.032). The sensitivity analysis and funnel plot suggested the existence of publication bias. After three possibly unpublished cohorts were imputed, the pooled hazard ratio of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88, P < 0.001) still suggested a favorable prognosis in statin-treated patients. The pooled hazard ratio of statins to cardiovascular-related, cancer-related, and respiratory-related mortality were 0.52 (95% CI: 0.27-1.01, P = 0.052), 0.57 (95% CI: 0.32-1.01, P = 0.056), and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.43-0.78, P < 0.001), respectively, although these results were not conclusive as we could not find a sufficient number of original studies dealing with those forms of mortality.

Conclusions

The use of statins for patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease may reduce all-cause mortality. This conclusion should be re-evaluated by a registered large-scale randomized controlled trial.     

Toxocariasis and epilepsy: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

Human toxocariasis is a zoonotic infection caused by the larval stages of Toxocara canis (T. canis) and less frequently Toxocara cati (T. cati). A relationship between toxocariasis and epilepsy has been hypothesized. We conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis of available data to evaluate the strength of association between epilepsy and Toxocara spp. seropositivity and to propose some guidelines for future surveys.

Data Sources

Electronic databases, the database from the Institute of Neuroepidemiology and Tropical Neurology of the University of Limoges (http://www-ient.unilim.fr/) and the reference lists of all relevant papers and books were screened up to October 2011.

Methods

We performed a systematic review of literature on toxocariasis (the exposure) and epilepsy (the outcome). Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. A common odds ratio (OR) was estimated using a random-effects meta-analysis model of aggregated published data.

Results

Seven case-control studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 1867 participants (850 cases and 1017 controls). The percentage of seropositivity (presence of anti-Toxocara spp. antibodies) was higher among people with epilepsy (PWE) in all the included studies even if the association between epilepsy and Toxocara spp. seropositivity was statistically significant in only 4 studies, with crude ORs ranging 2.04–2.85. Another study bordered statistical significance, while in 2 of the included studies no significant association was found. A significant (p<0.001) common OR of 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50–2.44] was estimated. Similar results were found when meta-analysis was restricted to the studies considering an exclusively juvenile population and to surveys using Western Blot as confirmatory or diagnostic serological assay.

Conclusion

Our results support the existence of a positive association between Toxocara spp. seropositivity and epilepsy. Further studies, possibly including incident cases, should be performed to better investigate the relationship between toxocariasis and epilepsy.     

Preeclampsia and ABO blood groups: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Preeclampsia (PE) is a multifactorial pregnancy-specific syndrome which represents one of the leading causes of maternal mortality worldwide. Inherited thrombophilia have been investigated as risk factor for the development of PE and it is currently known that ABO blood group may impact haemostatic balance, having the non-O blood groups (A, B or AB) subjects increased risk for thrombus formation, as compared to those of group O. We performed a systematic review of the literature for published studies investigating whether ABO blood groups could influence PE developing. A sensitive search of four databases identified 45 unique titles. The retrieved papers were assessed independently by authors and a rigorous process of selection and data extract was conduct. Methodological quality of the included studies was also evaluated. Two studies met eligibility criteria. As a main finding of our systematic review, an association between the AB blood group and the occurrence of PE was detected based on two original studies. Considering the role of ABO blood groups on the hemostatic process and thrombus formation, special attention should be given to pregnant patients carrying the AB blood group in order to prevent the syndrome and improve prognosis.     

Effect of early surgery after hip fracture on mortality and complications: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Guidelines exist for the surgical treatment of hip fracture, but the effect of early surgery on mortality and other outcomes that are important for patients remains unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of early surgery on the risk of death and common postoperative complications among elderly patients with hip fracture.

Methods

We searched electronic databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE), the archives of meetings of orthopedic associations and the bibliographies of relevant articles and questioned experts to identify prospective studies, published in any language, that evaluated the effects of early surgery in patients undergoing procedures for hip fracture. Two reviewers independently assessed methodologic quality and extracted relevant data. We pooled data by means of the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model, which is based on the inverse variance method.

Results

We identified 1939 citations, of which 16 observational studies met our inclusion criteria. These studies had a total of 13 478 patients for whom mortality data were complete (1764 total deaths). Based on the five studies that reported adjusted risk of death (4208 patients, 721 deaths), irrespective of the cut-off for delay (24, 48 or 72 hours), earlier surgery (i.e., within the cut-off time) was associated with a significant reduction in mortality (relative risk [RR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68–0.96, p = 0.01). Unadjusted data indicated that earlier surgery also reduced in-hospital pneumonia (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37–0.93, p = 0.02) and pressure sores (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.34–0.69, p < 0.001).

Interpretation

Earlier surgery was associated with a lower risk of death and lower rates of postoperative pneumonia and pressure sores among elderly patients with hip fracture. These results suggest that reducing delays may reduce mortality and complications.Among elderly patients, hip fracture is associated with a one-year mortality rate ranging from 14% to 36%¹ and also with profound temporary and sometimes permanent impairment of independence and quality of life.² As the elderly population increases, the annual number of hip fractures globally is expected to exceed 7 million over the next 40 to 50 years.³Current guidelines⁴ indicate that surgery for hip fracture should be performed within 24 hours of injury, as earlier surgery has been associated with better functional outcome, shorter hospital stay, shorter duration of pain and lower rates of nonunion, postoperative complications and mortality.^5–11Proponents of early treatment argue that this approach minimizes the length of time a patient is confined to bed rest, thereby reducing the risk of associated complications, such as pressure sores, deep vein thrombosis and urinary tract infections.⁸ However, those favouring a delay believe it provides the opportunity to optimize patients’ medical status, thereby decreasing the risk of perioperative complications.⁸ A further challenge to resolving the debate is the lack of an accepted definition of early surgery.¹² Uncertainty exists about whether 24, 48 or 72 hours, or a longer period, should be considered to represent an “unacceptable delay” for hip fracture surgery.We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to inform this debate. More specifically, we addressed the following question: Among patients 60 years of age or older who underwent surgery for hip fracture, what was the effect of early surgery, relative to delayed surgery, on all-cause mortality and postoperative complications?     

Derivation and validation of clinical phenotypes for COPD: a systematic review

Background

The traditional classification of COPD, which relies solely on spirometry, fails to account for the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. Phenotyping is a method that attempts to derive a single or combination of disease attributes that are associated with clinically meaningful outcomes. Deriving phenotypes entails the use of cluster analyses, and helps individualize patient management by identifying groups of individuals with similar characteristics. We aimed to systematically review the literature for studies that had derived such phenotypes using unsupervised methods.

Methods

Two independent reviewers systematically searched multiple databases for studies that performed validated statistical analyses, free of definitive pre-determined hypotheses, to derive phenotypes among patients with COPD. Data were extracted independently.

Results

9156 citations were retrieved, of which, 8 studies were included. The number of subjects ranged from 213 to 1543. Most studies appeared to be biased: patients were more likely males, with severe disease, and recruited in tertiary care settings. Statistical methods used to derive phenotypes varied by study. The number of phenotypes identified ranged from 2 to 5. Two phenotypes, with poor longitudinal health outcomes, were common across multiple studies: young patients with severe respiratory disease, few cardiovascular co-morbidities, poor nutritional status and poor health status, and a phenotype of older patients with moderate respiratory disease, obesity, cardiovascular and metabolic co-morbidities.

Conclusions

The recognition that two phenotypes of COPD were often reported may have clinical implications for altering the course of the disease. This review also provided important information on limitations of phenotype studies in COPD and the need for improvement in future studies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12931-015-0208-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Gamma-glutamyltransferase predicts increased risk of mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and mortality through a comprehensive analysis of existing evidence. PubMed, Embase, Chinese Biomedical Literature, and Science Citation Index databases were electronically searched. Studies were included if the study design was prospective and included reference and at-risk levels of GGT at baseline and mortality as a separate outcome. The quality of the studies included was assessed on the basis of Newcastle–Ottawa scale. Data from selected qualified studies were systematically reviewed, pooled, and analyzed according to the MOOSE guidelines and PRISMA statement. The results included the following: 1. 35 studies including 571 511 participants and 72 196 cases of mortality; 2. GGT, even at physiologic levels, was associated with increased all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, and might also be associated with cancer-related mortality in the general population; and 3. GGT was very likely to be associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in patients with coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Many of the studies included did not specifically exclude subjects with hepatic diseases or alcohol abuse, which may have obscured the results. Moderate heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis of GGT and all-cause mortality. Different compositions of cause-specific mortality might be the reason. However, subgroup analysis could only be performed on cardiovascular death because of insufficient information. GGT, even at physiologic high levels, predicted mortality, especially cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality. The underlining mechanism and potential effects of GGT-targeted intervention on health warrant further investigation.     

Post-stroke infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background  

stroke is the main cause of disability in high-income countries, and ranks second as a cause of death worldwide. Patients with acute stroke are at risk for infections, but reported post-stroke infection rates vary considerably. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled post-stroke infection rate and its effect on outcome.     

Calcium dobesilate for diabetic retinopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Many randomized clinical controlled trials have confirmed the efficacy and safety of calcium dobesilate in treating diabetic retinopathy(DR).This systematic review critically evaluated the evidence that links calcium dobesilate to DR.In this fixed-effects meta-analysis,a total of 221 pertinent English-language articles published between January 1975 and October 2013 were identified.Systematic searches of PUBMED,Springer Link and the Cochrane Clinical Trials Database were conducted using the keywords “diabetic retinopathy” and “calcium dobesilate”.The extracted information included the study design,inclusion and exclusion criteria,setting,sample size,participant mean age,treatment regime,mean change in best corrected visual acuity,laboratory parameters,capillary fragility,intraocular pressure and fundus manifestations based on the findings of fluorescent angiography.The summary statistics indicated that calcium dobesilate was significantly associated with improving retinal microaneurysms(RR: 0.62,95%CI: 0.42?0.90,P=0.01),retinalhemorrhages(RR: 0.39,95% CI: 0.17?0.88,P=0.02); exudates(RR: 0.31,95% CI: 0.12?0.81,P=0.02),reduction of whole blood viscosity(MD: ?0.57 CP,95% CI: ?0.75 to ?0.38,P<0.001),plasma viscosity(MD: ?0.36 CP,95% CI: ?0.63 to ?0.09,P=0.01) and blood cholesterol(MD: ?0.48 mg m L?1,95% CI: ?0.64?0.33,P<0.00001).Intraocular pressure was also significantly reduced(MD: ?5.59 mm Hg,95% CI: ?6.69 to ?4.50,P<0.00001).The results indicate that calcium dobesilate effectively treats DR at the systematic and local ocular levels.     

Molecular typing of Treponema pallidum: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Syphilis is resurgent in many regions of the world. Molecular typing is a robust tool for investigating strain diversity and epidemiology. This study aimed to review original research on molecular typing of Treponema pallidum (T. pallidum) with three objectives: (1) to determine specimen types most suitable for molecular typing; (2) to determine T. pallidum subtype distribution across geographic areas; and (3) to summarize available information on subtypes associated with neurosyphilis and macrolide resistance.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Two researchers independently searched five databases from 1998 through 2010, assessed for eligibility and study quality, and extracted data. Search terms included “Treponema pallidum,” or “syphilis,” combined with the subject headings “molecular,” “subtyping,” “typing,” “genotype,” and “epidemiology.” Sixteen eligible studies were included. Publication bias was not statistically significant by the Begg rank correlation test. Medians, inter-quartile ranges, and 95% confidence intervals were determined for DNA extraction and full typing efficiency. A random-effects model was used to perform subgroup analyses to reduce obvious between-study heterogeneity. Primary and secondary lesions and ear lobe blood specimens had an average higher yield of T. pallidum DNA (83.0% vs. 28.2%, χ² = 247.6, p<0.001) and an average higher efficiency of full molecular typing (80.9% vs. 43.1%, χ² = 102.3, p<0.001) compared to plasma, whole blood, and cerebrospinal fluid. A pooled analysis of subtype distribution based on country location showed that 14d was the most common subtype, and subtype distribution varied across geographic areas. Subtype data associated with macrolide resistance and neurosyphilis were limited.

Conclusions/Significance

Primary lesion was a better specimen for obtaining T. pallidum DNA than blood. There was wide geographic variation in T. pallidum subtypes. More research is needed on the relationship between clinical presentation and subtype, and further validation of ear lobe blood for obtaining T. pallidum DNA would be useful for future molecular studies of syphilis.     

Pharmacotherapy in pulmonary arterial hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Previous meta-analyses of treatments for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) have not shown mortality benefit from any individual class of medication.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from inception through November 2009 for randomized trials that evaluated any pharmacotherapy in the treatment of PAH. Reference lists from included articles and recent review articles were also searched. Analysis included randomized placebo controlled trials of at least eight weeks duration and studies comparing intravenous medication to an unblinded control group.

Results

1541 unique studies were identified and twenty-four articles with 3758 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Studies were reviewed and data extracted regarding study characteristics and outcomes. Data was pooled for three classes of medication: prostanoids, endothelin-receptor antagonists (ERAs), and phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5) inhibitors. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for mortality, 6-minute walk distance, dyspnea scores, hemodynamic parameters, and adverse effects. Mortality in the control arms was a combined 4.2% over the mean study length of 14.9 weeks. There was significant mortality benefit with prostanoid treatment (RR 0.49, CI 0.29 to 0.82), particularly comparing intravenous agents to control (RR 0.30, CI 0.14 to 0.63). Mortality benefit was not observed for ERAs (RR 0.58, CI 0.21 to 1.60) or PDE5 inhibitors (RR 0.30, CI 0.08 to 1.08). All three classes of medication improved other clinical and hemodynamic endpoints. Adverse effects that were increased in treatment arms include jaw pain, diarrhea, peripheral edema, headache, and nausea in prostanoids; and visual disturbance, dyspepsia, flushing, headache, and limb pain in PDE5 inhibitors. No adverse events were significantly associated with ERA treatment.

Conclusions

Treatment of PAH with prostanoids reduces mortality and improves multiple other clinical and hemodynamic outcomes. ERAs and PDE5 inhibitors improve clinical and hemodynamic outcomes, but have no proven effect on mortality. The long-term effects of all PAH treatment requires further study.     

Cosleeping and sleep problems in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Sleep and Biological Rhythms - There exist inconsistent findings about the relation between cosleeping and sleep problems in children. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess these relations and...     

The height premium: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The taller people are, the more money they tend to earn. This phenomenon is widely known as the height premium. However, it is not yet known whether the height premium is universal, or whether it varies by context. To that end, a systematic review of the literature was performed. Five databases were searched until August 2020. Ultimately, a list of 42 studies were included in a narrative synthesis, and 17 studies were included in a meta-analysis. Based on the meta-analysis, we found evidence that the height premium varied by context: the height premium was smaller in the U.S. and Australia, and larger in Latin America and Asia. Within geographies, there appeared to be a larger height premium for men than for women. Cultural factors, labor market structures and biology may play a role in determining the strength of the height premium.     

Poor nutritional condition promotes high-risk behaviours: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Animal behaviour can lead to varying levels of risk, and an individual's physical condition can alter the potential costs and benefits of undertaking risky behaviours. How risk-taking behaviour depends on condition is subject to contrasting hypotheses. The asset protection principle proposes that individuals in better condition should be more risk averse, as they have higher future reproductive potential (i.e. more to lose). The state-dependent safety hypothesis proposes that high-condition individuals that are more likely to survive and maximise the benefits of risky situations may make apparently riskier choices, as their individual risk is in fact lower. We systematically searched for studies that experimentally manipulated animals’ nutritional or energetic condition through diet treatments, and subsequently measured risk-taking behaviour in contexts relating to predation, novelty and exploration. Our meta-analysis quantified condition effects on risk-taking behaviour at both the mean and variance level. We preregistered our methods and hypotheses prior to conducting the study. Phylogenetic multilevel meta-analysis revealed that the lower-nutritional-condition individuals showed on average ca. 26% greater tendency towards risk than high-condition individuals (95% confidence interval: 15–38%; N = 126 studies, 1297 effect sizes). Meta-regressions revealed several factors influencing the overall effect, such as the experimental context used to measure risk-taking behaviour, and the life stage when condition was manipulated. Meta-analysis of variance revealed no clear overall effect of condition on behavioural variance (on average ca. 3% decrease in variance in low- versus high-condition groups; 95% confidence interval: −8 to 3%; N = 119 studies, 1235 effect sizes), however, the experimental context was an important factor influencing the strength and direction of the variance effect. Our comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis provide insights into the roles of state dependency and plasticity in intraspecific behavioural variation. While heterogeneity among effect sizes was high, our results show that poor nutritional state on average increases risk taking in ecological contexts involving predation, novelty and exploration.     

The protective role of coastal marshes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Salt marshes lie between many human communities and the coast and have been presumed to protect these communities from coastal hazards by providing important ecosystem services. However, previous characterizations of these ecosystem services have typically been based on a small number of historical studies, and the consistency and extent to which marshes provide these services has not been investigated. Here, we review the current evidence for the specific processes of wave attenuation, shoreline stabilization and floodwater attenuation to determine if and under what conditions salt marshes offer these coastal protection services.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a thorough search and synthesis of the literature with reference to these processes. Seventy-five publications met our selection criteria, and we conducted meta-analyses for publications with sufficient data available for quantitative analysis. We found that combined across all studies (n = 7), salt marsh vegetation had a significant positive effect on wave attenuation as measured by reductions in wave height per unit distance across marsh vegetation. Salt marsh vegetation also had a significant positive effect on shoreline stabilization as measured by accretion, lateral erosion reduction, and marsh surface elevation change (n = 30). Salt marsh characteristics that were positively correlated to both wave attenuation and shoreline stabilization were vegetation density, biomass production, and marsh size. Although we could not find studies quantitatively evaluating floodwater attenuation within salt marshes, there are several studies noting the negative effects of wetland alteration on water quantity regulation within coastal areas.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results show that salt marshes have value for coastal hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation. Because we do not yet fully understand the magnitude of this value, we propose that decision makers employ natural systems to maximize the benefits and ecosystem services provided by salt marshes and exercise caution when making decisions that erode these services.     

Multidimensional prognostic indices for use in COPD patient care. A systematic review

Background

A growing number of prognostic indices for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is developed for clinical use. Our aim is to identify, summarize and compare all published prognostic COPD indices, and to discuss their performance, usefulness and implementation in daily practice.

Methods

We performed a systematic literature search in both Pubmed and Embase up to September 2010. Selection criteria included primary publications of indices developed for stable COPD patients, that predict future outcome by a multidimensional scoring system, developed for and validated with COPD patients only. Two reviewers independently assessed the index quality using a structured screening form for systematically scoring prognostic studies.

Results

Of 7,028 articles screened, 13 studies comprising 15 indices were included. Only 1 index had been explored for its application in daily practice. We observed 21 different predictors and 7 prognostic outcomes, the latter reflecting mortality, hospitalization and exacerbation. Consistent strong predictors were FEV₁ percentage predicted, age and dyspnoea. The quality of the studies underlying the indices varied between fairly poor and good. Statistical methods to assess the predictive abilities of the indices were heterogenic. They generally revealed moderate to good discrimination, when measured. Limitations: We focused on prognostic indices for stable disease only and, inevitably, quality judgment was prone to subjectivity.

Conclusions

We identified 15 prognostic COPD indices. Although the prognostic performance of some of the indices has been validated, they all lack sufficient evidence for implementation. Whether or not the use of prognostic indices improves COPD disease management or patients'' health is currently unknown; impact studies are required to establish this.