Ecological Restoration and Global Climate Change

There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to climate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice of ecological restoration must be considered. In particular, the usefulness of historical ecosystem conditions as targets and references must be set against the likelihood that restoring these historic ecosystems is unlikely to be easy, or even possible, in the changed biophysical conditions of the future. We suggest that more consideration and debate needs to be directed at the implications of climate change for restoration practice.     

Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change

Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species’ extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.     

Invertebrate Metacommunity Structure and Dynamics in an Andean Glacial Stream Network Facing Climate Change

Under the ongoing climate change, understanding the mechanisms structuring the spatial distribution of aquatic species in glacial stream networks is of critical importance to predict the response of aquatic biodiversity in the face of glacier melting. In this study, we propose to use metacommunity theory as a conceptual framework to better understand how river network structure influences the spatial organization of aquatic communities in glacierized catchments. At 51 stream sites in an Andean glacierized catchment (Ecuador), we sampled benthic macroinvertebrates, measured physico-chemical and food resource conditions, and calculated geographical, altitudinal and glaciality distances among all sites. Using partial redundancy analysis, we partitioned community variation to evaluate the relative strength of environmental conditions (e.g., glaciality, food resource) vs. spatial processes (e.g., overland, watercourse, and downstream directional dispersal) in organizing the aquatic metacommunity. Results revealed that both environmental and spatial variables significantly explained community variation among sites. Among all environmental variables, the glacial influence component best explained community variation. Overland spatial variables based on geographical and altitudinal distances significantly affected community variation. Watercourse spatial variables based on glaciality distances had a unique significant effect on community variation. Within alpine catchment, glacial meltwater affects macroinvertebrate metacommunity structure in many ways. Indeed, the harsh environmental conditions characterizing glacial influence not only constitute the primary environmental filter but also, limit water-borne macroinvertebrate dispersal. Therefore, glacier runoff acts as an aquatic dispersal barrier, isolating species in headwater streams, and preventing non-adapted species to colonize throughout the entire stream network. Under a scenario of glacier runoff decrease, we expect a reduction in both environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, inducing a taxonomic homogenization of the aquatic fauna in glacierized catchments as well as the extinction of specialized species in headwater groundwater and glacier-fed streams, and consequently an irreversible reduction in regional diversity.     

Small Changes in Climate Can Profoundly Alter the Dynamics and Ecosystem Services of Tropical Crater Lakes

African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R²_adj = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001) in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.     

Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States

The Kyoto protocol has focused the attention of the public and policymarkers on the earth's carbon (C) budget. Previous estimates of the impacts of vegetation change have been limited to equilibrium “snapshots” that could not capture nonlinear or threshold effects along the trajectory of change. New models have been designed to complement equilibrium models and simulate vegetation succession through time while estimating variability in the C budget and responses to episodic events such as drought and fire. In addition, a plethora of future climate scenarios has been used to produce a bewildering variety of simulated ecological responses. Our objectives were to use an equilibrium model (Mapped Atmosphere–Plant–Soil system, or MAPSS) and a dynamic model (MC1) to (a) simulate changes in potential equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical conditions and across a wide gradient of future temperature changes to look for consistencies and trends among the many future scenarios, (b) simulate time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and its associated C pools to illustrate the possible trajectories of vegetation change near the high and low ends of the temperature gradient, and (c) analyze the extent of the US area supporting a negative C balance. Both models agree that a moderate increase in temperature produces an increase in vegetation density and carbon sequestration across most of the US with small changes in vegetation types. Large increases in temperature cause losses of C with large shifts in vegetation types. In the western states, particularly southern California, precipitation and thus vegetation density increase and forests expand under all but the hottest scenarios. In the eastern US, particularly the Southeast, forests expand under the more moderate scenarios but decline under more severe climate scenarios, with catastrophic fires potentially causing rapid vegetation conversions from forest to savanna. Both models show that there is a potential for either positive or negative feedbacks to the atmosphere depending on the level of warming in the climate change scenarios. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 22 November 2000.     

Climate Change Enhances the Potential Impact of Infectious Disease and Harvest on Tropical Waterfowl

Global warming exacerbates threats to biodiversity as ecological systems shift in response to altered climatic conditions. Yet the long-term survival of populations at direct risk from climate change may also be undermined by local factors such as infectious disease or anthropogenic harvest, which leave smaller and more isolated populations increasingly vulnerable to the rapid pace of global change. We review current and future threats to an exemplar tropical waterfowl species, magpie geese Anseranas semipalmata , and focus on the potential synergies between infectious diseases, harvest, and climate change. We outline viral, bacterial, and fungal pathogens likely to cause disease in geese, and give mention to parasites. Further, we elaborate on a previously developed, spatially explicit population viability model to simulate demographic responses to hunting and novel or enhanced disease outbreaks due to climate change. With no harvest, the simulated disease epizootics only threatened metapopulation viability when both mortality rate was high and outbreaks were regular (a threshold response). However, when contemporary site-specific harvest is included as an additive impact, the response to disease severity and probability was linear. We recommend field research to test these hypotheses linking drivers of waterfowl population decline to disease–climate change interactions.     

Wildlife Recovery During Tropical Forest Succession: Assessing Ecological Drivers of Community Change

Despite the high proportion of secondary forests in the tropics, their conservation value remains poorly understood, particularly with regard to animals. Most theoretical studies of succession have focused on plants, linking life history trade‐offs to well‐known patterns of community change. However, the same trade‐offs proposed for plants should apply to animals, and indeed, animal studies show a change in community dominance from habitat generalist to forest specialist species during succession. Focusing on the diverse terrestrial small mammals of the endangered Atlantic Forest, we assessed which ecological drivers (habitat structure and food availability) affect community changes during succession. If the change in community dominance is driven by trade‐offs between productivity and efficiency, it should be mainly associated with a decrease in food availability. As expected, from younger to older forest, habitat generalists decreased in richness and total abundance, concurrent with a decrease in arthropod biomass. By contrast, the increase in richness and total abundance of forest specialists was not clearly supported by the data; however, this group was not affected by food availability. These results are congruent with a trade‐off between competitive ability and ability to use abundant resources, and indicate that the major community change during succession involves habitat generalists. Secondary forests may thus be valuable for conservation, at least where habitat loss and fragmentation are not high, and old growth forest is available.     

Flashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During a Century of Urbanization and Climate Change

Globally, ecosystem services are threatened by increasing urbanization and more variable precipitation patterns driven by climate change. However, how these drivers interact over long-time scales to affect underlying processes remains poorly understood, hindering our ability to predict their long-term consequences. Here, we use long-term data spanning nearly a century to investigate changes in hydrologic attributes for two lakes in the Upper Midwest with urbanizing watersheds. We quantified flashiness—the variability of runoff rate, volume, or stage-level of waterways—to investigate the concurrent impacts of urbanization and climate change on flashiness and flooding potential. Our results indicate that flashiness generally increased for both lakes over the period of 1916–2013, although this overall trend consists of sub-periods of increase and decrease. Increasing impervious surface area has been the stronger driver of flashiness historically; however, our results suggest that the impact of urbanization may reach a threshold, such that saturation effects would cause large magnitude precipitation events to become a relatively stronger driver of flashiness. Increasing flashiness indicates an increase in flooding potential, documented by increases in the 10- and 100-year flood threshold levels as large as 30 cm. Since flashiness is strongly related to the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, the methodology and results presented here provide a unique approach to gain insight into how non-linear interactions between global change drivers, at multiple time scales, impact the simultaneous provision of multiple services.     

Ecological degradation and agricultural intensification in the Andean highlands

Andean cultural ecologists have made two claims in recent years: ecological decomposition is absent due to effective indigenous management of communal resources, and agricultural intensification is inversely related to altitude. Drawing on material from the Jukumani Indians of Northern Potosi, Bolivia, these assertions are challenged. First, there is little evidence to prove or disprove ecological degradation. Second, the location of agricultural intensification, as the Jukumani data suggests, is influenced by altitude as well as by the presence of market.Fieldwork in Bolivia was carried out between January 1979 and May 1981. This essay was originally presented at a conference entitled, How Communities Resolve Common Property Problems, sponsored by the Harvard Institute for International Development and the Center for Population Studies of Harvard University in the spring semester of 1983.     

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5^th percentile or >95^th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.     

Modeled Effects of Climate Change and Plant Invasion on Watershed Function Across a Steep Tropical Rainfall Gradient

Climate change is anticipated to affect freshwater resources, but baseline data on the functioning of tropical watersheds is lacking, limiting efforts that seek to predict how watershed processes, water supply, and streamflow respond to anticipated changes in climate and vegetation change, and to management. To address this data gap, we applied the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) across 88 watersheds spanning a highly constrained, 4500 mm mean annual rainfall (MAR) gradient on Hawai‘i Island to quantify stream flow at 3-h time-steps for eight years in response to the independent and interactive effects of (1) large observed decrease in MAR; (2) projected warming and altered precipitation; and (3) four scenarios of forest invasion by the high water-demanding non-native tree species Psidium cattleianum. The model captured 62% of variability in measured flow at daily time scales, 95% at monthly time scales, and 98% at annual time scales. We found that low DHSVM modeled flow (Q ₉₀) and storm flow (Q ₁₀) responses to observed declines in rainfall dwarfed those of projected temperature increase or invasion, with flow decline positively correlated with MAR. As a percentage of streamflow, temperature and invasion reductions were negatively correlated with MAR. By comparison, warming alone had little effect on Q ₉₀ or Q ₁₀, but both decreased with increasing P. cattleianum cover, and projected effects of declining MAR were accentuated when combined with P. cattleianum and warming. Restoration mitigated some effects of climate warming by increasing stream base flows, with the relative effects of restoration being larger in drier versus wetter watersheds. We conclude that potential changes in climate in tropical environments are likely to exert significant effects on streamflow, but managing vegetation can provide mitigating benefits.     

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.     

Climate connectivity of the bobcat in the Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River are imposing barriers for wildlife, and the additive effect of urban and agricultural development that dominates the lower Great Lakes region likely further reduces functional connectivity for many terrestrial species. As the climate warms, species will need to track climate across these barriers. It is important therefore to investigate land cover and bioclimatic hypotheses that may explain the northward expansion of species through the Great Lakes. We investigated the functional connectivity of a vagile generalist, the bobcat, as a representative generalist forest species common to the region. We genotyped tissue samples collected across the region at 14 microsatellite loci and compared different landscape hypotheses that might explain the observed gene flow or functional connectivity. We found that the Great Lakes and the additive influence of forest stands with either low or high canopy cover and deep lake‐effect snow have disrupted gene flow, whereas intermediate forest cover has facilitated gene flow. Functional connectivity in southern Ontario is relatively low and was limited in part by the low amount of forest cover. Pathways across the Great Lakes were through the Niagara region and through the Lower Peninsula of Michigan over the Straits of Mackinac and the St. Marys River. These pathways are important routes for bobcat range expansion north of the Great Lakes and are also likely pathways that many other mobile habitat generalists must navigate to track the changing climate. The extent to which species can navigate these routes will be important for determining the future biodiversity of areas north of the Great Lakes.     

Reduced Rainfall Increases Metabolic Rates in Upper Mixed Layers of Tropical Lakes

Ecosystems - Ecosystem-level metabolism is a good sentinel for human and natural disturbances in freshwater systems, responding from local changes (for example, land use) to regional and global...     

Ecological Indicators of Native Rhizobia in Tropical Soils

The relationship between environment and abundance of rhizobia was described by determining the populations of root nodule bacteria at 14 diverse sites on the island of Maui. Mean annual rainfall at the sites ranged from 320 to 1,875 mm, elevation from 37 to 1,650 m, and soil pH from 4.6 to 7.9. Four different soil orders were represented in this study: inceptisols, mollisols, ultisols, and an oxisol. The rhizobial populations were determined by plant infection counts of five legumes (Trifolium repens, Medicago sativa, Vicia sativa, Leucaena leucocephala, and Macroptilium atropurpureum). Populations varied from 1.1 to 4.8 log₁₀ cells per g of soil. The most frequently occurring rhizobia were Bradyrhizobium spp., which were present at 13 of 14 sites with a maximum of 4.8 log₁₀ cells per g of soil. Rhizobium trifolii and R. leguminosarum occurred only at higher elevations. The presence of a particular Rhizobium or Bradyrhizobium sp. was correlated with the occurrence of its appropriate host legume. Total rhizobial populations were significantly correlated with mean annual rainfall, legume cover and shoot biomass, soil temperature, soil pH, and phosphorus retention. Regression models are presented which describe the relationship of legume hosts, soil climate, and soil fertility on native rhizobial populations.     

博斯腾湖小湖区湿地景观变化特征研究

以博斯腾湖小湖区为研究区,采用5个不同时期的Landsat影像为主要数据源,运用景观转换系数和重心迁移模型对1996~2015年研究区湿地景观变化进行分析,以揭示博斯腾湖小湖区的景观变化类型与景观的重心变化特征。结果显示:(1)近20年有地表水的湿地与旱地的重心变化强烈,1996~2001年有地表水的湿地重心变化达到最大值,向西南迁移10.57km,旱地重心变化也达到最大值,向东南迁移8.78km。(2)近20年明水与旱地的重心迁移呈顺时针向心偏移。(3)稳定型景观是研究区的主要构成类型,占总类型的89.72%,非稳定型景观保持在总类型的11.28%,研究区湿地景观变化逐渐呈稳定趋势。研究表明,气候因素、湖泊水位和区域湿地保护措施是影响研究区湿地景观变化的主要驱动因素。     

When Invasive Plants Disappear: Transformative Restoration Possibilities in the Western United States Resulting from Climate Change

Most ecologists believe that climate change poses a significant threat to the persistence of native species. However, in some areas climate change may reduce or eliminate non-native invasive species, creating opportunities for restoration. If invasive species are no longer suited to novel climate conditions, the native communities that they replaced may not be viable either. If neither invasive nor native species are climatically viable, a type of "transformative" restoration will be required, involving the translocation of novel species that can survive and reproduce under new climate conditions. Here, we illustrate one approach for restoration planning by using bioclimatic envelope modeling to identify restoration opportunities in the western United States, where the invasive plant cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) is no longer climatically viable under 2100 conditions projected by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL2.1) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We then select one example of a restoration target area and identify novel plant species that could become viable at the site in the wake of climate change. We do so by identifying the closest sites that currently have climate conditions similar to those projected at the restoration target area in 2100. This approach is a first step toward identifying appropriate species for transformative restoration.     

Changing Community States in the Gulf of Maine: Synergism Between Invaders, Overfishing and Climate Change

Human activities, including overfishing and species introductions, have had a dramatic impact on benthic communities in the Gulf of Maine within the past two decades. Prior to the 1970s, the climax community in the shallow subtidal was composed of Laminaria spp. kelp beds with an understory of arborescent red algae. In the 1980s, a population explosion of the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, created an alternate community state, urchin barrens. Recently, a new community has been observed in former urchin barrens and kelp beds. This assemblage is principally composed of the introduced species: Codium fragile subsp. tomentosoides (green alga), Membranipora membranacea (bryozoan), Diplosoma listerianum (tunicate), Bonnemaisonia hamifera (red alga) and the opportunistic species Mytilus edulis (mussel) and Desmarestia aculeata (brown alga). In addition to changes in relative abundance, many of these species have greatly expanded their distribution and habitat selection. A model detailing mechanisms for the transition of the traditional kelp bed and urchin barren communities to others is presented and implications for this new community are discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.