Lead Us Not into Tanktation: A Simulation Modelling Approach to Gain Insights into Incentives for Sporting Teams to Tank

Annual draft systems are the principal method used by teams in major sporting leagues to recruit amateur players. These draft systems frequently take one of three forms: a lottery style draft, a weighted draft, or a reverse-order draft. Reverse-order drafts can create incentives for teams to deliberately under-perform, or tank, due to the perceived gain from obtaining quality players at higher draft picks. This paper uses a dynamic simulation model that captures the key components of a win-maximising sporting league, including the amateur player draft, draft choice error, player productivity, and between-team competition, to explore how competitive balance and incentives to under-perform vary according to league characteristics. We find reverse-order drafts can lead to some teams cycling between success and failure and to other teams being stuck in mid-ranking positions for extended periods of time. We also find that an incentive for teams to tank exists, but that this incentive decreases (i) as uncertainty in the ability to determine quality players in the draft increases, (ii) as the number of teams in the league reduces, (iii) as team size decreases, and (iv) as the number of teams adopting a tanking strategy increases. Simulation models can be used to explore complex stochastic dynamic systems such as sports leagues, where managers face difficult decisions regarding the structure of their league and the desire to maintain competitive balance.     

Optimal spending functions for asymmetric group sequential designs

We present optimized group sequential designs where testing of a single parameter theta is of interest. We require specification of a loss function and of a prior distribution for theta. For the examples presented, we pre-specify Type I and II error rates and minimize the expected sample size over the prior distribution for theta. Minimizing the square of sample size rather than the sample size is found to produce designs with slightly less aggressive interim stopping rules and smaller maximum sample sizes with essentially identical expected sample size. We compare optimal designs using Hwang-Shih-DeCani and Kim-DeMets spending functions to fully optimized designs not restricted by a spending function family. In the examples selected, we also examine when there might be substantial benefit gained by adding an interim analysis. Finally, we provide specific optimal asymmetric spending function designs that should be generally useful and simply applied when a design with minimal expected sample size is desired.     

Statistical fluctuations in population bargaining in the ultimatum game: Static and evolutionary aspects

We explore the emergent behavior in heterogeneous populations where players negotiate via an ultimatum game: two players are offered a gift, one of them (the proposer) suggests how to divide the offer while the other player (the responder) can either accept or reject the deal. Rejection is detrimental to both players as it results in no earnings. In this context, our contribution is twofold: (i) we consider a population where the distribution of used strategies is constant over time and properties of the random payoff received by the players (average and higher moments) are reported from simple exact methods and corroborated by computer simulations; (ii) the evolution of a population is analyzed via Monte Carlo simulations where agents may change independently the proposing and accepting parameters of their strategy depending on received payoffs. Our results show that evolution leads to a stationary state in which wealth (accumulated payoff) is fairly distributed. As time evolves, an increase in average payoff and a simultaneous variance decrease is observed when we use a dynamics based on a probabilistic version of the saying: “One should not comply with small earnings, but one's greed must be limited.”     

Predictors of Response Rates to a Long Term Follow-Up Mail out Survey

Objective

Very little is known about predictors of response rates to long-term follow-up mail-out surveys, including whether the timing of an incentive affects response rates. We aimed to determine whether the timing of the incentive affects response rates and what baseline demographic and psychological factors predict response rates to a 12 year follow-up survey.Study design and setting: Participants were 450 randomly selected people from the Penrith population, Australia who had previously participated in a mail-out survey 12 years earlier. By random allocation, 150 people received no incentive, 150 received a lottery ticket inducement with the follow-up survey and 150 received a lottery ticket inducement on the return of a completed survey.

Results

The overall response rate for the study was 63%. There were no significant differences in terms of response rates between the no incentive (58.8%;95%CI 49.8%,67.3%), incentive with survey (65.1%;95%CI 56.2%,73.3%) and promised incentive (65.3%;95%CI 56.1%,73.7%) groups. Independent predictors of responding to the 12 year survey were being older (OR=1.02, 95%CI 1.01,1.05,P=0.001) and being less neurotic as reported on the first survey 12 years earlier (OR=0.92, 95%CI 0.86,0.98, P=0.010).

Conclusions

Psychological factors may play a role in determining who responds to long-term follow-up surveys although timing of incentives does not.     

Moving to Universal Coverage? Trends in the Burden of Out-Of-Pocket Payments for Health Care across Social Groups in India, 1999–2000 to 2011–12

In the background of ongoing health sector reforms in India, the paper investigates the magnitude and trends in out-of-pocket and catastrophic payments for key population sub-groups. Data from three rounds of nationally representative consumer expenditure surveys (1999–2000, 2004–05 and 2011–12) were pooled to assess changes over time in a range of out-of-pocket -related outcome indicators for the poorest 20% households, scheduled caste and tribe households and Muslims households relative to their better-off/majority religion counterparts. Our results suggest that the poorest 20% of households experienced a decline in the proportion reporting any OOP for inpatient care relative to the top 20% and Muslim households saw an increase in the proportion reporting any inpatient OOP relative to non-Muslim households during 2000-2012. The change in the proportion of Muslim households or SC/ST households reporting any OOP for outpatient care was similar to that for their respective more advantaged counterparts; but the poorest 20% of households experienced a faster increase in the proportion reporting any OOP for outpatient care than their top 20% counterparts. SC/ST, Muslim and the poorest 20% of households experienced as faster increase in the share of outpatient OOP in total household spending relative to their advantaged counterparts. We conclude that the financial burden of out of pocket spending increased faster among the disadvantaged groups relative to their more advantaged counterparts. Although the poorest 20% saw a relative decline in OOP spending on inpatient care as a share of household spending, this is likely the result of foregoing inpatient care, than of accessing benefits from the recent expansion of cashless publicly financed insurance schemes for inpatient care. Our results highlight the need to explore the reasons underlying the lack of effectiveness of existing public health financing programs and public sector health services in reaching less-advantaged castes and religious minorities.     

Basketball Teams as Strategic Networks

We asked how team dynamics can be captured in relation to function by considering games in the first round of the NBA 2010 play-offs as networks. Defining players as nodes and ball movements as links, we analyzed the network properties of degree centrality, clustering, entropy and flow centrality across teams and positions, to characterize the game from a network perspective and to determine whether we can assess differences in team offensive strategy by their network properties. The compiled network structure across teams reflected a fundamental attribute of basketball strategy. They primarily showed a centralized ball distribution pattern with the point guard in a leadership role. However, individual play-off teams showed variation in their relative involvement of other players/positions in ball distribution, reflected quantitatively by differences in clustering and degree centrality. We also characterized two potential alternate offensive strategies by associated variation in network structure: (1) whether teams consistently moved the ball towards their shooting specialists, measured as “uphill/downhill” flux, and (2) whether they distributed the ball in a way that reduced predictability, measured as team entropy. These network metrics quantified different aspects of team strategy, with no single metric wholly predictive of success. However, in the context of the 2010 play-offs, the values of clustering (connectedness across players) and network entropy (unpredictability of ball movement) had the most consistent association with team advancement. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of network approaches in quantifying team strategy and show that testable hypotheses can be evaluated using this approach. These analyses also highlight the richness of basketball networks as a dataset for exploring the relationships between network structure and dynamics with team organization and effectiveness.     

Monitoring site occupancy for American mink in its native range

American mink (Neovison vison) are secretive, semi-aquatic carnivores that often require noninvasive methods based on field signs such as tracks and scat for determining their spatial distribution. Most previous assessments of survey methods for American mink have been conducted in the United Kingdom where mink are an invasive species. We evaluated survey techniques for American mink in riparian habitat in its native range in the midwestern United States. We used occupancy modeling to compare detection rates between walking surveys and mink raft surveys, and we evaluated the potential for environmental covariates and observer bias to influence detectability from walking surveys. Per-survey detection probabilities were greater for walking surveys (0.72) than for mink rafts (0.39). Walking surveys also were cheaper and easier to conduct in small streams prone to flooding when compared to mink raft surveys. However, detection probabilities from walking surveys were affected by observer bias, recent rainfall, substrate, and date. We recommend walking surveys for determining the distribution of American mink in riparian habitat in the Midwest if occupancy modeling is applied to adjust for environmental and observer effects on detectability. We used such an approach to demonstrate occupancy dynamics of mink were related to variable water depths, which has implications for how this carnivore might be influenced by climate change. Mink rafts standardize the substrate for recording mink tracks and reduce the likelihood of observer effects. For studies using many volunteers, we recommend mink rafts for determining site occupancy by American mink. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Lottery coexistence models extended to plants with disjoint generations

Abstract. Neither conventional niche theory nor current lottery models offer a satisfactory theoretical scope for modelling coexistence of species with disjoint generations. South-African fynbos and Australian kwongan include many species which are killed by, and recruit only after, fire. We propose a density-dependent lottery model which accommodates the unusual demographics of these species. We show that coexistence requires density dependence in recruitment. The result applies to a wider class of populations than the one considered here. It is applied to non-resprouting species in fynbos and kwongan. We show that the lottery assumption of recruitment in proportion to propagules is often satisfied, while the production of such propagules is often density-dependent, and we discuss some evidence of mechanisms whereby this may occur.     

The stabilizing effect of a random environment

It is shown that the lottery competition model permits coexistence in a stochastic environment, but not in a constant environment. Conditions for coexistence and competitive exclusion are determined. Analysis of these conditions shows that the essential requirements for coexistence are overlapping generations and fluctuating birth rates which ensure that each species has periods when it is increasing. It is found that a species may persist provided only that it is favored sufficiently by the environment during favorable periods independently of the extent to which the other species is favored during its favorable periods.Coexistence is defined in terms of the stochastic boundedness criterion for species persistence. Using the lottery model as an example this criterion is justified and compared with other persistence criteria. Properties of the stationary distribution of population density are determined for an interesting limiting case of the lottery model and these are related to stochastic boundedness. An attempt is then made to relate stochastic boundedness for infinite population models to the behavior of finite population models.     

Participation and Contribution in Crowdsourced Surveys

This paper identifies trends within and relationships between the amount of participation and the quality of contributions in three crowdsourced surveys. Participants were asked to perform a collective problem solving task that lacked any explicit incentive: they were instructed not only to respond to survey questions but also to pose new questions that they thought might-if responded to by others-predict an outcome variable of interest to them. While the three surveys had very different outcome variables, target audiences, methods of advertisement, and lengths of deployment, we found very similar patterns of collective behavior. In particular, we found that: the rate at which participants submitted new survey questions followed a heavy-tailed distribution; the distribution in the types of questions posed was similar; and many users posed non-obvious yet predictive questions. By analyzing responses to questions that contained a built-in range of valid response we found that less than 0.2% of responses lay outside of those ranges, indicating that most participants tend to respond honestly to surveys of this form, even without explicit incentives for honesty. While we did not find a significant relationship between the quantity of participation and the quality of contribution for both response submissions and question submissions, we did find several other more nuanced participant behavior patterns, which did correlate with contribution in one of the three surveys. We conclude that there exists an optimal time for users to pose questions early on in their participation, but only after they have submitted a few responses to other questions. This suggests that future crowdsourced surveys may attract more predictive questions by prompting users to pose new questions at specific times during their participation and limiting question submission at non-optimal times.     

Life stage,not climate change,explains observed tree range shifts

Ongoing climate change is expected to shift tree species distribution and therefore affect forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. To assess and project tree distributional shifts, researchers may compare the distribution of juvenile and adult trees under the assumption that differences between tree life stages reflect distributional shifts triggered by climate change. However, the distribution of tree life stages could differ within the lifespan of trees, therefore, we hypothesize that currently observed distributional differences could represent shifts over ontogeny as opposed to climatically driven changes. Here, we test this hypothesis with data from 1435 plots resurveyed after more than three decades across the Western Carpathians. We compared seedling, sapling and adult distribution of 12 tree species along elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients. We analyzed (i) temporal shifts between the surveys and (ii) distributional differences between tree life stages within both surveys. Despite climate warming, tree species distribution of any life stage did not shift directionally upward along elevation between the surveys. Temporal elevational shifts were species specific and an order of magnitude lower than differences among tree life stages within the surveys. Our results show that the observed range shifts among tree life stages are more consistent with ontogenetic differences in the species' environmental requirements than with responses to recent climate change. The distribution of seedlings substantially differed from saplings and adults, while the distribution of saplings did not differ from adults, indicating a critical transition between seedling and sapling tree life stages. Future research has to take ontogenetic differences among life stages into account as we found that distributional differences recently observed worldwide may not reflect climate change but rather the different environmental requirements of tree life stages.     

Insights into lipid-protein interactions from computer simulations

Lipid-protein interactions play an important direct role in the function of many membrane proteins. We argue they are key players in membrane structure, modulate membrane proteins in more subtle ways than direct binding, and are important for understanding the mechanism of classes of hydrophobic drugs. By directly comparing membrane proteins from different families in the same, complex lipid mixture, we found a unique lipid environment for every protein. Extending this work, we identified both differences and similarities in the lipid environment of GPCRs, dependent on which family they belong to and in some cases their conformational state, with particular emphasis on the distribution of cholesterol. More recently, we have been studying modes of coupling between protein conformation and local membrane properties using model proteins. In more applied approaches, we have used similar methods to investigate specific hypotheses on interactions of lipid and lipid-like molecules with ion channels. We conclude this perspective with some considerations for future work, including a new more sophisticated coarse-grained force field (Martini 3), an interactive visual exploration framework, and opportunities to improve sampling.     

“在哪里”和“有多少”? 中国雪豹调查与空缺

雪豹(Panthera uncia)分布广泛且调查难度较大, 全世界的雪豹研究面临的首要问题是雪豹基础数据的缺乏。本文通过检索1980至2018年已发表的含有中国境内雪豹分布和密度信息的中英文文章共35篇, 从中提取出雪豹的分布与密度信息, 其中含有密度估计的文献18篇。同时, 来自雪豹调查的15位一线成员通过填写表格和问卷的形式提供了28个地块上未发表的雪豹密度调查信息。基于此, 我们逐一分析了各省份已有的雪豹调查现状和存在的调查空缺, 发现雪豹分布调查的两大空白区域主要存在于与吉尔吉斯斯坦接壤的西天山地区和西藏南部的冈底斯-念青唐古拉山山脉和喜马拉雅山脉。相对我国雪豹栖息地总面积, 有过密度估算的面积仅占1.7%, 仍然处于刚刚起步的阶段, 并且已有的密度调查几乎都是在质量较好的雪豹栖息地内进行的。今后除了需要继续努力收集汇总已有的调查结果, 仍然需要在雪豹分布区(特别是空缺区域)内增加调查。     

Evaluation of an Aerial Survey to Estimate Abundance of Wintering Ducks in Mississippi

Abstract: Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (Ǐ), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (Ň) for 14 surveys during winters 2002–2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40–48% among all surveys and contributed 48–61% of the estimated variance of Ň. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for Ň than Ǐ. Estimates of Ň met our goals for precision (CV ≤ 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions.     

Estimation and Correction of Visibility Bias in Aerial Surveys of Wintering Ducks

Abstract: Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wetland cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1–100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias was not influenced by either covariate cited above. We integrated this sightability model into estimation procedures for our sample surveys with weight adjustments derived from probabilities of group detection (estimated by logistic regression) and count bias. To estimate variances of abundance estimates, we used bootstrap resampling of transects included in aerial surveys and data from the bias-correction experiment. When we implemented bias correction procedures on data from a field survey conducted in January 2004, we found bias-corrected estimates of abundance increased 36–42%, and associated standard errors increased 38–55%, depending on species or group estimated. We deemed our method successful for integrating correction of visibility bias in an existing sample survey design for wintering ducks in Mississippi, and we believe this procedure could be implemented in a variety of sampling problems for other locations and species. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):808–813; 2008)     

SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF STELLER'S SEA LIONS AT ROOKERIES AND HAUL-OUT SITES IN ALASKA

The Steller's sea lion population has declined by 60%-70% over much of Alaska since the late 1970s. Overlap in species composition and sizes of fishes consumed by sea lions and harvested by commercial fisheries, particularly during winter, has led to examination of potential interaction between commercial fisheries and Steller's sea lions. Abundance and distribution data for Steller's sea lions in Alaska were derived from aerial surveys conducted during the breeding season, mid-June to early July 1992, 1994, and 1996. To study winter distribution of sea lions, we conducted aerial surveys during March 1993, November-December 1994, and March 1999. We counted about one-half as many sea lions during winter surveys compared to the breeding-season surveys. Numbers of sea lions at rookery sites dropped off considerably during winter, whereas numbers at haul-out sites did not. We found little evidence of large-scale, seasonal movement, at least for the western stock of sea lions. Rather, differences between summer and winter distribution were primarily a function of sea lions dispersing to local haul-out sites during the winter. Terrestrial sites, both rookeries and haul-outs, clearly are important to Steller's sea lions during the entire year. Individual sites may be occupied year-round or only during particular times of year.     

Monoamine Oxidase A Gene (MAOA) Associated with Attitude Towards Longshot Risks

Decision making often entails longshot risks involving a small chance of receiving a substantial outcome. People tend to be risk preferring (averse) when facing longshot risks involving significant gains (losses). This differentiation towards longshot risks underpins the markets for lottery as well as for insurance. Both lottery and insurance have emerged since ancient times and continue to play a useful role in the modern economy. In this study, we observe subjects'' incentivized choices in a controlled laboratory setting, and investigate their association with a widely studied, promoter-region repeat functional polymorphism in monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA). We find that subjects with the high activity (4-repeat) allele are characterized by a preference for the longshot lottery and also less insurance purchasing than subjects with the low activity (3-repeat) allele. This is the first result to link attitude towards longshot risks to a specific gene. It complements recent findings on the neurobiological basis of economic risk taking.     

The existence value of the Antillean manatee in the unprotected Hondo River (Mexico) as a fundamental component for its conservation

The Hondo River is the natural border between Mexico and Belize, and it is part of the distribution area of the Endangered Antillean manatee Trichechus manatus manatus. Currently, the Hondo River does not have any special protection. Employing qualitative research methods, we documented the social perception and local knowledge from riverside communities to assess conservation status and trends of manatees in the area. Fifty semi-structured interviews were carried out to river users in 16 Mexican communities, distributed in six segments along the riverbed. The claims of the inhabitants agree with boat-based surveys: most of the current and historical manatee sightings were reported in segments of the main watercourses, but also in small tributaries, which are usually shallow and rich in aquatic vegetation. Additionally, the local perception about manatee conservation status can be helpful to understand population trends and threats: 48 % of the interviewees claimed that nowadays the number of sighted manatees is less than that observed 10 years ago. The responders identified water pollution due to cane cultivation practices, motorized vessels traffic, and presence of fishing nets as potential threats to manatees. This study provides evidence of relevant local knowledge about the manatee ecology and its habitat, critical in the construction of binational conservation strategies for the species. Therefore, local resources users may play an increasingly significant role in manatee management and monitoring. Although manatees are poached for their meat in several areas of their distribution, the most common value attributed to manatees in Hondo River was non-use existence values. Local people recognize the challenges to observe this cryptic species in this river, but also identified manatees as potential flag species, suggesting that it may represent a valuable resource for ecotourism. We suggest that the non-extractive use of manatees has the potential for promoting species conservation and local economic growth.