Low evolutionary potential for egg‐to‐adult viability in Drosophila melanogaster at high temperatures

To cope with the increasing and less‐predictable temperature forecasts under climate change, many terrestrial ectotherms will have to migrate or rely on adaptation through plastic or evolutionary means. Studies suggest that some ectotherms have a limited potential to change their upper thermal limits via evolutionary shifts, but research has mostly focused on adult life stages under laboratory conditions. Here we use replicate populations of Drosophila melanogaster and a nested half‐sib/full‐sib quantitative genetic design to estimate heritabilities and genetic variance components for egg‐to‐adult viability under both laboratory and seminatural field conditions, encompassing cold, benign, and hot temperatures in two separate populations. The results demonstrated temperature‐specific heritabilities and additive genetic variances for egg‐to‐adult viability. Heritabilities and genetic variances were higher under cold and benign compared to hot temperatures when tested under controlled laboratory conditions. Tendencies toward lower evolutionary potential at higher temperatures were also observed under seminatural conditions although the results were less clear in the field setting. Overall the results suggest that ectotherms that already experience temperatures close to their upper thermal tolerance limits have a restricted capacity to adapt to higher temperatures by evolutionary means.     

The evolutionary potential of an insect invader under climate change*

Although the impacts of climate change and invasive species are typically studied in isolation, they likely interact to reduce the viability of plant and animal populations. Indeed, invasive species, by definition, have succeeded in areas outside of their native range and may therefore have higher adaptive capacity relative to native species. Nevertheless, the genetic architecture of the thermal niche, which sets a limit to the potential for populations to evolve rapidly under climate change, has never been measured in an invasive species in its introduced range. Here, we estimate the genetic architecture of thermal performance in the harlequin beetle (Harmonia axyridis), a Central Asian species that has invaded four continents. We measured thermal performance curves in more than 400 third-generation offspring from a paternal half-sib breeding experiment and analyzed the genetic variance–covariance matrix. We show that while the critical thermal limits in this species have an additive genetic basis, most components of the thermal performance curve have low heritability. Moreover, we found evidence that genetic correlations may constrain the evolution of beetles under climate change. Our results suggest that some invasive species may have limited evolutionary capacity under climate change, despite their initial success in colonizing novel environments.     

Multivariate analysis of adaptive capacity for upper thermal limits in Drosophila simulans

Thermal tolerance is an important factor influencing the distribution of ectotherms, but our understanding of the ability of species to evolve different thermal limits is limited. Based on univariate measures of adaptive capacity, it has recently been suggested that species may have limited evolutionary potential to extend their upper thermal limits under ramping temperature conditions that better reflect heat stress in nature. To test these findings more broadly, we used a paternal half‐sibling breeding design to estimate the multivariate evolutionary potential for upper thermal limits in Drosophila simulans. We assessed heat tolerance using static (basal and hardened) and ramping assays. Our analyses revealed significant evolutionary potential for all three measures of heat tolerance. Additive genetic variances were significantly different from zero for all three traits. Our G matrix analysis revealed that all three traits would contribute to a response to selection for increased heat tolerance. Significant additive genetic covariances and additive genetic correlations between static basal and hardened heat‐knockdown time, marginally nonsignificant between static basal and ramping heat‐knockdown time, indicate that direct and correlated responses to selection for increased upper thermal limits are possible. Thus, combinations of all three traits will contribute to the evolution of upper thermal limits in response to selection imposed by a warming climate. Reliance on univariate estimates of evolutionary potential may not provide accurate insight into the ability of organisms to evolve upper thermal limits in nature.     

A Drosophila laboratory evolution experiment points to low evolutionary potential under increased temperatures likely to be experienced in the future

The ability to respond evolutionarily to increasing temperatures is important for survival of ectotherms in a changing climate. Recent studies suggest that upper thermal limits may be evolutionary constrained. We address this hypothesis in a laboratory evolution experiment, encompassing ecologically relevant thermal regimes. To examine the potential for species to respond to climate change, we exposed replicate populations of Drosophila melanogaster to increasing temperatures (0.3 °C every generation) for 20 generations, whereas corresponding replicate control populations were held at benign thermal conditions throughout the experiment. We hypothesized that replicate populations exposed to increasing temperatures would show increased resistance to warm and dry environments compared with replicate control populations. Contrasting replicate populations held at the two thermal regimes showed (i) an increase in desiccation resistance and a decline in heat knock‐down resistance in replicate populations exposed to increasing temperatures, (ii) similar egg‐to‐adult viability and fecundity in replicate populations from the two thermal regimes, when assessed at high stressful temperatures and (iii) no difference in nucleotide diversity between thermal regimes. The limited scope for adaptive evolutionary responses shown in this study highlights the challenges faced by ectotherms under climate change.     

Heritability of flight and resting metabolic rates in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Dispersal capacity is a key life‐history trait especially in species inhabiting fragmented landscapes. Evolutionary models predict that, given sufficient heritable variation, dispersal rate responds to natural selection imposed by habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we estimate phenotypic variance components and heritability of flight and resting metabolic rates (RMRs) in an ecological model species, the Glanville fritillary butterfly, in which flight metabolic rate (FMR) is known to correlate strongly with dispersal rate. We modelled a two‐generation pedigree with the animal model to distinguish additive genetic variance from maternal and common environmental effects. The results show that FMR is significantly heritable, with additive genetic variance accounting for about 40% of total phenotypic variance; thus, FMR has the potential to respond to selection on dispersal capacity. Maternal influences on flight metabolism were negligible. Heritability of flight metabolism was context dependent, as in stressful thermal conditions, environmentally induced variation dominated over additive genetic effects. There was no heritability in RMR, which was instead strongly influenced by maternal effects. This study contributes to a mechanistic understanding of the evolution of dispersal‐related traits, a pressing question in view of the challenges posed to many species by changing climate and fragmentation of natural habitats.     

Variation in heritability of tadpole growth: an experimental analysis

Heritability characteristically shows large variation between traits, among populations and species, and through time. One of the reasons for this is its dependence on gene frequencies and how these are altered by selection and drift through the evolutionary process. We studied variation in heritability of tadpole growth rate in populations of the Swedish common frog, Rana temporaria. In populations evolving under warmer conditions, we have demonstrated elsewhere that tadpoles show better growth and physiological performance at relatively higher temperatures than tadpoles with an evolutionary history in a relatively cooler part of the distribution range. In the current study, we ask whether this process of divergence under natural selection has influenced the genetic architecture as visualised in estimates of heritability of growth rate at different temperature treatments under laboratory conditions. The results suggest that the additive genetic variance varies between treatments and is highest in a treatment that is common to both populations. Our estimates of narrow sense heritability are generally higher in the thermal regime that dominates in the natural environment. The reason for this appears not primarily to be because the component of additive genetic variation is higher in relation to the total phenotypic variation under these conditions, but because the part of the phenotypic variance explained by environmental variation increases at temperatures to which the current populations has been less frequently under selection.     

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long‐lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process‐based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.     

A meta-analysis of the heritability of developmental stability

The existence of additive genetic variance in developmental stability has important implications for our understanding of morphological variation. The heritability of individual fluctuating asymmetry and other measures of developmental stability have frequently been estimated from parent-offspring regressions, sib analyses, or from selection experiments. Here we review by meta-analysis published estimates of the heritability of developmental stability, mainly the degree of individual fluctuating asymmetry in morphological characters. The overall mean effect size of heritabilities of individual fluctuating asymmetry was 0.19 from 34 studies of 17 species differing highly significantly from zero (P < 0.0001). The mean heritability for 14 species was 0.27. This indicates that there is a significant additive genetic component to developmental stability. Effect size was larger for selection experiments than for studies based on parent-offspring regression or sib analyses, implying that genetic estimates were unbiased by maternal or common environment effects. Additive genetic coefficients of variation for individual fluctuating asymmetry were considerably higher than those for character size per se. Developmental stability may be significantly heritable either because of strong directional selection, or fluctuating selection regimes which prevent populations from achieving a high degree of developmental stability to current environmental and genetic conditions.     

Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change

The extent to which global change will impact the long‐term persistence of species depends on their evolutionary potential to adapt to future conditions. While the number of studies that estimate the standing levels of adaptive genetic variation in populations under predicted global change scenarios is growing all the time, few studies have considered multiple environments simultaneously and even fewer have considered evolutionary potential in multivariate context. Because conditions will not be constant, adaptation to climate change is fundamentally a multivariate process so viewing genetic variances and covariances over multivariate space will always be more informative than relying on bivariate genetic correlations between traits. A multivariate approach to understanding the evolutionary capacity to cope with global change is necessary to avoid misestimating adaptive genetic variation in the dimensions in which selection will act. We assessed the evolutionary capacity of the larval stage of the marine polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa to adapt to warmer water temperatures. Galeolaria is an important habitat‐forming species in Australia, and its earlier life‐history stages tend to be more susceptible to stress. We used a powerful quantitative genetics design that assessed the impacts of three temperatures on subsequent survival across over 30 000 embryos across 204 unique families. We found adaptive genetic variation in the two cooler temperatures in our study, but none in the warmest temperature. Based on these results, we would have concluded that this species has very little capacity to evolve to the warmest temperature. However, when we explored genetic variation in multivariate space, we found evidence that larval survival has the potential to evolve even in the warmest temperatures via correlated responses to selection across thermal environments. Future studies should take a multivariate approach to estimating evolutionary capacity to cope with global change lest they misestimate a species’ true adaptive potential.     

How does selfing affect the genetic variance of quantitative traits? An updated meta‐analysis on empirical results in angiosperm species

Most theoretical works predict that selfing should reduce the level of additive genetic variance available for quantitative traits within natural populations. Despite a growing number of quantitative genetic studies undertaken during the last two decades, this prediction is still not well supported empirically. To resolve this issue and confirm or reject theoretical predictions, we reviewed quantitative trait heritability estimates from natural plant populations with different rates of self‐fertilization and carried out a meta‐analysis. In accordance with models of polygenic traits under stabilizing selection, we found that the fraction of additive genetic variance is negatively correlated with the selfing rate. Although the mating system explains a moderate fraction of the variance, the mean reduction of narrow‐sense heritability values between strictly allogamous and predominantly selfing populations is strong, around 60%. Because some nonadditive components of genetic variance become selectable under inbreeding, we determine whether self‐fertilization affects the relative contribution of these components to genetic variance by comparing narrow‐sense heritability estimates from outcrossing populations with broad‐sense heritability estimated in autogamous populations. Results suggest that these nonadditive components of variance may restore some genetic variance in predominantly selfing populations; it remains, however, uncertain how these nonadditive components will contribute to adaptation.     

Brief communication: Familial resemblance in digit ratio (2D:4D)

Familial resemblance in the second‐to‐fourth digit ratio (2D:4D), a proxy for prenatal androgen action, was studied in 1,260 individuals from 235 Austrian families. In agreement with findings from twin studies of 2D:4D, heritability estimates based on parent–child and full‐sib dyad similarity indicated substantial genetic contributions to trait expression (57% for right hand, 48% for left hand 2D:4D). Because twin studies have found nonadditive genetic as well as shared environmental effects on 2D:4D to be negligible or nil, these family‐based estimates in all likelihood reflect the narrow‐sense (additive genetic) heritability of the trait. Directional (right‐minus‐left) asymmetry in 2D:4D was only weakly heritable (6%). The pattern of same‐sex and different‐sex parent–child and full‐sib correlations yielded no evidence for X‐linked inheritance. This is surprising, considering evidence for associations of male 2D:4D with sensitivity to testosterone (functional variants of the X‐linked androgen receptor gene). 2D:4D was particularly strongly heritable through male lines (father–son and brother–brother correlations), thus raising the possibility that Y‐linked genes (such as the sex‐determining region SRY) might influence 2D:4D expression. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Community assembly processes restrict the capacity for genetic adaptation under climate change

Given the magnitude and rate of ongoing climate change, the physiological capacity of species to tolerate extreme conditions will play a key role in influencing outcomes for biodiversity. It is also possible that species will respond to changes in climate by shifting their physiological tolerances, through genetic adaptation. How these processes influence biodiversity outcomes will be crucial in determining the most suitable management responses to retain diversity into the future. Here we assess how accounting for physiological tolerances, genetic adaptation and community assembly processes such as species replacement, influence projected climate change outcomes for the flora of Tasmania (all 2051 plant species). We incorporate these processes into the M‐SET metacommunity model and compare four different assumptions of species niches: realized niches, broader physiological tolerances and low or high capacity for genetic adaptation. Accounting for physiological tolerances rather than realized niches had the largest impact on projected outcomes, with 358 fewer species extinctions in the hottest climate scenario (mean = 30 extinctions). In contrast, adding the capacity for species physiological tolerances to shift through genetic adaptation resulted in little additional benefits for biodiversity outcomes, even under an optimistic level of adaptive capacity. We find that this is due largely to community assembly processes such as species replacement restricting the ability of species to persist and adapt in situ, as has been suggested from theoretical metacommunity models applied in simple artificial settings. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for species physiological tolerances and community‐level processes in biodiversity projections, while the potential role for genetic adaptation may be small, requiring further exploration in alternative contexts.     

Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species

Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid‐latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002–2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species’ functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we find that both tropical and widespread Drosophila species will face a similar proportional reduction in distribution range under future warming.     

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the “warm edge” of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two‐species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species’ interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high‐elevation habitats will directly affect the species’ distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.     

Temperature‐related geographical shifts among passerines: contrasting processes along poleward and equatorward range margins

Climate change is causing widespread geographical range shifts, which likely reflects different processes at leading and trailing range margins. Progressive warming is thought to relax thermal barriers at poleward range margins, enabling colonization of novel areas, but imposes increasingly unsuitable thermal conditions at equatorward margins, leading to range losses from those areas. Few tests of this process during recent climate change have been possible, but understanding determinants of species’ range limits will improve predictions of their geographical responses to climate change and variation in extinction risk. Here, we examine the relationship between poleward and equatorward range margin dynamics with respect to temperature‐related geographical limits observed for 34 breeding passerine species in North America between 1984–1988 and 2002–2006. We find that species’ equatorward range margins were closer to their upper realized thermal niche limits and proximity to those limits predicts equatorward population extinction risk through time. Conversely, the difference between breeding bird species’ poleward range margin temperatures and the coolest temperatures they tolerate elsewhere in their ranges was substantial and remained consistent through time: range expansion at species’ poleward range margins is unlikely to directly reflect lowered thermal barriers to colonization. The process of range expansion may reflect more complex factors operating across broader areas of species’ ranges. The latitudinal extent of breeding bird ranges is decreasing through time. Disparate responses observed at poleward versus equatorward margins arise due to differences in range margin placement within the realized thermal niche and suggest that climate‐induced geographical shift at equatorward range limits more strongly reflect abiotic conditions than at their poleward range limits. This further suggests that observed geographic responses to date may fail to demonstrate the true cost of climate change on the poleward portion of species’ distributions. Poleward range margins for North American breeding passerines are not presently in equilibrium with realized thermal limits.     

Disparate patterns of thermal adaptation between life stages in temperate vs. tropical Drosophila melanogaster

Many terrestrial ectothermic species exhibit limited variation in upper thermal tolerance across latitude. However, these trends may not signify limited adaptive capacity to increase thermal tolerance in the face of climate change. Instead, thermal tolerance may be similar among populations because behavioural thermoregulation by mobile organisms or life stages may buffer natural selection for thermal tolerance. We compared thermal tolerance of adults and embryos among natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster from a broad range of thermal habitats around the globe to assess natural variation of thermal tolerance in mobile vs. immobile life stages. We found no variation among populations in adult thermal tolerance, but embryonic thermal tolerance was higher in tropical strains than in temperate strains. We further report that embryos live closer to their upper thermal limits than adults – that is, thermal safety margins are smaller for embryos than adults. F1 hybrid embryos from crosses between temperate and tropical populations had thermal tolerance that matched that of tropical embryos, suggesting the dominance of heat‐tolerant alleles. Together, our findings suggest that thermal selection has led to divergence in embryonic thermal tolerance but that selection for divergent thermal tolerance may be limited in adults. Further, our results suggest that thermal traits should be measured across life stages to better predict adaptive limits.     

Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change

Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long‐lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F_ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty‐one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F_ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species’ evolutionary potential.     

Genetic variation in the life‐history traits of Epiphyas postvittana: population structure and local adaptation

The light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker) shows high intraspecific variability in morphological, physiological, demographic and behavioural characters. To gain insight into the extent of adaptation and evolutionary changes in response to environmental heterogeneity in this species, quantitative genetic analyses of life‐history variation were conducted for two natural populations under two thermal conditions (23°C and 28°C). Paternal half‐sib heritability and genetic correlation in six life‐history traits (i.e. development time, adult body weight, adult lifespan, age at first reproduction, the number of eggs laid during the first 5 days after emergence, and total fecundity) were compared. Significant heritabilities were shown consistently in development time; this is also true for adult body weight, except for the Canberra population at 23°C. However, neither population differences nor the effect of temperature were statistically detectable for any of these heritabilities, confirming the genetically determined flexibility. Positive genetic correlations between development time and adult body weight, and negative genetic correlations between the number of eggs laid during the first 5 days and adult lifespan were present for these populations at both temperatures, indicating the presence of genetic constraints. Pairwise comparisons of genetic correlations revealed the heterogeneity of the two populations and across temperatures. These results suggest that the structure of genetic covariance might have changed significantly during the divergence of natural populations and in response to the alteration of environmental conditions in E. postvittana.     

Natural variation and the capacity to adapt to ocean acidification in the keystone sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

A rapidly growing body of literature documents the potential negative effects of CO₂‐driven ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms. However, nearly all this work has focused on the effects of future conditions on modern populations, neglecting the role of adaptation. Rapid evolution can alter demographic responses to environmental change, ultimately affecting the likelihood of population persistence, but the capacity for adaptation will differ among populations and species. Here, we measure the capacity of the ecologically important purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to adapt to OA, using a breeding experiment to estimate additive genetic variance for larval size (an important component of fitness) under future high‐pCO₂/low‐pH conditions. Although larvae reared under future conditions were smaller than those reared under present‐day conditions, we show that there is also abundant genetic variation for body size under elevated pCO₂, indicating that this trait can evolve. The observed heritability of size was 0.40 ± 0.32 (95% CI) under low pCO₂, and 0.50 ± 0.30 under high‐pCO₂ conditions. Accounting for the observed genetic variation in models of future larval size and demographic rates substantially alters projections of performance for this species in the future ocean. Importantly, our model shows that after incorporating the effects of adaptation, the OA‐driven decrease in population growth rate is up to 50% smaller, than that predicted by the ‘no‐adaptation’ scenario. Adults used in the experiment were collected from two sites on the coast of the Northeast Pacific that are characterized by different pH regimes, as measured by autonomous sensors. Comparing results between sites, we also found subtle differences in larval size under high‐pCO₂ rearing conditions, consistent with local adaptation to carbonate chemistry in the field. These results suggest that spatially varying selection may help to maintain genetic variation necessary for adaptation to future OA.