Habitat geometry, population viscosity and the rate of genetic drift

In all natural populations, individuals located close to one another tend to interact more than those further apart. The extent of population viscosity can have important implications for ecological and evolutionary processes. Here we develop a spatially explicit population model to examine how the rate of genetic drift depends upon both spatial population structure and habitat geometry. The results show that the time to fixation for a new and selectively neutral mutation is dramatically increased in viscous populations. Furthermore, in viscous populations the time to fixation depends critically on habitat geometry. Fixation time for populations of identical size increases markedly as landscape width decreases and length increases. We suggest that similar effects will also be important in metapopulations, with the spatial arrangement of subpopulations and their connectivity likely to determine the rate of drift. We argue that the recent increases in computer power should facilitate major advances in our understanding of evolutionary landscape ecology over the next few years, and suggest that the time is ripe for a unification of spatial population dynamics theory, landscape ecology and population genetics.     

Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail

Climate change and habitat destruction are two of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. Lattice models have been used to investigate how hypothetical species with different characteristics respond to habitat loss. The main result shows that a sharp threshold in habitat availability exists below which a species rapidly becomes extinct. Here, a similar modelling approach is taken to establish what determines how species respond to climate change. A similar threshold exists for the rate of climate change as has been observed for habitat loss-patch occupancy remains high up to a critical rate of climate change, beyond which species extinction becomes likely. Habitat specialists, especially those of relatively poor colonizing ability are least able to keep pace with climate change. The interaction between climate change and habitat loss might be disastrous. During climate change, the habitat threshold occurs sooner. Similarly, species suffer more from climate change in a fragmented habitat.     

Critical thresholds associated with habitat loss: a review of the concepts, evidence, and applications

A major conservation concern is whether population size and other ecological variables change linearly with habitat loss, or whether they suddenly decline more rapidly below a “critical threshold” level of habitat. The most commonly discussed explanation for critical threshold responses to habitat loss focus on habitat configuration. As habitat loss progresses, the remaining habitat is increasingly fragmented or the fragments are increasingly isolated, which may compound the effects of habitat loss. In this review we also explore other possible explanations for apparently nonlinear relationships between habitat loss and ecological responses, including Allee effects and time lags, and point out that some ecological variables will inherently respond nonlinearly to habitat loss even in the absence of compounding factors. In the literature, both linear and nonlinear ecological responses to habitat loss are evident among simulation and empirical studies, although the presence and value of critical thresholds is influenced by characteristics of the species (e.g. dispersal, reproduction, area/edge sensitivity) and landscape (e.g. fragmentation, matrix quality, rate of change). With enough empirical support, such trends could be useful for making important predictions about species' responses to habitat loss, to guide future research on the underlying causes of critical thresholds, and to make better informed management decisions. Some have seen critical thresholds as a means of identifying conservation targets for habitat retention. We argue that in many cases this may be misguided, and that the meaning (and utility) of a critical threshold must be interpreted carefully and in relation to the response variable and management goal. Despite recent interest in critical threshold responses to habitat loss, most studies have not used any formal statistical methods to identify their presence or value. Methods that have been used include model comparisons using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or t‐tests, and significance testing for changes in slope or for polynomial effects. The judicious use of statistics to help determine the shape of ecological relationships would permit greater objectivity and more comparability among studies.     

Wildlife habitat analysis – a multidimensional habitat management model

In intensively cultivated landscapes, the effects of land use – changing habitat quality and habitat availability - on wildlife populations are of major importance for wildlife management. Populations of some species reach high densities, grow rapidly, and can therefore cause damage to tree regeneration in forests; chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) is an example. Other species, like capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), suffer from substantial habitat loss resulting in a population decline. Consequently, the number of individuals and the quality of habitat are of crucial relevance for the development of wildlife management concepts. It is critical to know, which areas provide suitable habitat conditions for a species, and what quantity and quality of habitat is required to achieve a certain population size.

In order to evaluate habitat quality and to link wildlife research to practical habitat management, an integrated habitat management model has been designed. The model is based on a multi-dimensional habitat analysis which employs different methodological levels, which were defined according to different spatial scales. On a country scale (level 1), the wildlife ecological landscape type (WELT) is introduced. For this study the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg is divided into units which represent distinct regions with similar landscape ecological habitat conditions for wildlife species. On an eco-regional scale (level 2), the landscape ecological habitat potential (LEHP) was developed. It is based on the evaluation of species-related landscape parameters within an exemplary eco-region and provides information about the potential habitat available to a population. On two local scales (level 3: forest district, level 4: forest stand), a habitat structure analysis was conducted, which serves as a foundation for habitat improvement and the monitoring of habitat conditions. The three methodological elements WELT, LEHP and habitat structure analysis were integrated into a habitat management model. The model uses chamois and capercaillie as examples, but can be equally applied to other species and wildlife management regimes.     

Effects of population size and isolation on the genetic structure of the East African mountain white‐eye Zosterops poliogaster (Aves)

Habitat size, quality and isolation determine the genetic structure and diversity of populations and may influence their evolutionary potential and vulnerability to stochastic events. Small and isolated populations are subject to strong genetic drift and can lose much of their genetic diversity due to stochastic fixation and loss of alleles. The mountain white‐eye Zosterops poliogaster, a cloud forest bird species, is exclusively found in the high mountains of East Africa. We analysed 13 polymorphic microsatellites for 213 individuals of this species that were sampled at different points in time in three mountain massifs differing in habitat size, isolation and habitat degradation. We analysed the genetic differentiation among mountain populations and estimated the effective population sizes. Our results indicate three mountain‐specific genetic clusters. Time cohorts did not show genetic divergences, suggesting that populations are large enough to prevent strong drift effects. Effective population sizes were higher in larger and geographically interconnected habitat patches. Our findings underline the relevance of ecological barriers even for mobile species and show the importance of investigating different estimators of population size, including both approaches based on single and multiple time‐points of sampling, for the inference of the demographic status of a population. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 828–836.     

Landscape geometry determines community response to disturbance

Ecological communities are impacted by anthropogenic changes in both habitat geometry (i.e. amount, shape, fragmentation and connectivity of habitat) and disturbance regime. Although the effect of each of these drivers on diversity is well-documented, few studies have considered how habitat geometry and disturbance interact to affect diversity. We used a miniature landscape of moss patches to experimentally manipulate both habitat geometry and disturbance frequency on microarthropod communities. Species richness and abundance in local patches declined linearly with disturbance rate in all experimental landscapes, but the speed of this decline (a measure of ecological resilience) depended on the size and connectivity of the surrounding region. Reductions in region size had little effect on community resilience to disturbance until habitat loss resulted in complete loss of connectivity between patches, suggesting a threshold in community response to habitat loss. Beyond this threshold, repeated disturbance resulted in rapid declines in patch species richness and abundance and substantial changes in community composition. These effects of habitat geometry and disturbance on diversity were scale-dependent. Gamma (regional-scale) diversity was unaffected by habitat geometry, suggesting experimental reductions in alpha (local-scale) diversity were offset by increases in beta diversity. There was no effect of body size, abundance, or trophic position in determining species response to disturbance. Taxonomic grouping had a weak effect, with oribatids less affected by drought. We conclude that, in this system, dispersal from the surrounding metacommunity is vital in allowing recovery of local communities from disturbance. When habitat loss and fragmentation disrupt this process, extinctions result. Studies that examine separately the effects of habitat alterations and disturbance on diversity may therefore underestimate their combined effects.     

景观遗传学：概念与方法

全球变化下的物种栖息地丧失和破碎化给生物多样性保护带来了新的问题和挑战,生物多样性保护必须由单纯的物种保护上升到栖息地景观的保护。景观遗传学是定量确定栖息地景观特征对种群遗传结构影响的一门交叉学科,在生物保护及自然保护区管理方面有巨大的潜力。从生物多样性保护的角度评述了景观结构与遗传多样性的关系,介绍了景观遗传学的基本概念,研究尺度和方法,并对景观遗传学当前的研究焦点及面临的挑战做了总结。     

基于景观遗传学的滇金丝猴栖息地连接度分析

结合景观遗传学,应用最小费用距离模型对物种栖息地进行连接度分析,能够为生物多样性保护和自然保护区管理提供更加真实准确及可实践操作的指导。选取滇金丝猴这一珍稀濒危物种,结合景观遗传学,应用最小费用距离模型对其栖息地进行了连接度和潜在扩散廊道分析。并且通过连接度的分析和制图绘制出了更为准确的种群间潜在扩散廊道,确定了受人工障碍影响的廊道及敏感区域。结果表明,研究区内的5个亚群中,仅S3亚群内的5个猴群保持着较好的连接度,总体来说,各亚群内的连接度相对于各亚群间连接度保持的较好。除S3亚群中猴群间的潜在扩散廊道较为理想外,其余种群间的潜在扩散廊道均受人工斑块的影响,多数廊道被人工障碍阻断,或面临即将被阻断的情况,对于滇金丝猴的扩散交流影响较大。敏感区域多集中在中南部的3个亚群间,这些敏感区域应作为景观恢复及保护区规划的重要优先区域。     

生境破碎化对动物种群存活的影响

生境破碎是生物多样性下降的主要原因之一。通常以岛屿生物地理学、异质种群生物学和景观生态学的理论来解释不同空间尺度中生境破碎化的生态学效应。生境破碎化引起面积效应、隔离效应和边缘效应。这些效应通过影响动物种群的绝灭阈值、分布和多度、种间关系以及生态系统过程,最终影响动物种群的存活。野外研究表明,破碎化对动物的影响,因物种、生境类型和地理区域不同而有所变化,因此,预测物种在破碎生境中的存活比较困难。研究热点集中于：确定生境面积损失和生境斑块的空间格局对破碎景观中物种绝灭的相对影响,破碎景观中物种的适宜生境比例和绝灭阈值,异质种群动态以及生态系统的生态过程。随着3S技术的发展,生境破碎化模型趋于复杂,而发展有效的模型和验证模型将成为一项富有挑战性的任务。     

Response of a small felid of conservation concern to habitat fragmentation

Habitat loss and fragmentation are major drivers of biodiversity loss. A key question, particularly relevant to carnivore conservation, is to which extent species are able to survive in human-modified landscapes. Currently, conservationists are concerned about the impact habitat fragmentation may have on the long-term persistence of the forest-dwelling guiña (Leopardus guigna), given the increasingly modified landscapes in which they live. Here we evaluate the effect habitat cover, fragmentation and anthropogenic pressure have on the occupancy probability for guiñas in privately-owned forest fragments. We collected camera-trap data from 100 temperate rainforest sites in Chile and used single-season occupancy modeling to evaluate the influence of 13 parameters of landscape structure/anthropogenic pressure and four parameters of detection probability on the ocurrence of guiñas. The camera-trap survey data comprised 4168 camera-trap days and 112 independent records of guiñas. Surprisingly, fragmented (defined as having a high perimeter-to-area ratio) and moderately sized habitat patches best predicted site occupancy. Occupancy also increased where habitat patches were closer to continuous forest and nearer to buildings. Our results imply that guiñas can benefit from a high degree of edge type habitats in fragmented landscapes, capable of adapting to habitat fragmentation in the proximity to large continuous forest patches. This suggests that guiñas have a broader niche than previously believed. Additionally, the guiña is tolerant of human infrastructure. Further research is required to identify potential ecological traps, long-term source-sink dynamics, and the habitat loss/fragmentation threshold beyond which guiña populations are no longer viable.     

Landscape Effects on the Genetic Structure of the Ground Beetle Poecilus Versicolor STURM 1824

The impact of landscape structure on the genetic structure of an abundant and widespread carabid beetle Poecilus versicolor was analysed in a low mountain range (Lahn-Dill-Bergland, Germany) by means of RAPD-PCR. Habitat patch and landscape characteristics were included as independent variables into a GIS oriented correlative approach. Results indicated a high overall genetic diversity of the beetle population and suggest that the mobility of P. versicolor is much higher than previously thought. An equilibrium among migration and genetic drift has not been reached yet, therefore it is very likely that revealed differences in allele frequencies reflect current pattern of genetic diversity. Landscape characteristics at a scale of 1000 × 1000 m surrounding each study site significantly affected the genetic population structure of the carabid beetle, while it is only indirect affected by patch conditions. Opposite effects of grassland and arable land on genetic diversity demonstrated that grassland in the surrounding landscape facilitates dispersal, while arable land apparently decreases successful dispersal, but both factors increase population density on the study site. We conclude that the local population genetic structure of a widespread and highly mobile species as P. versicolor is strongly affected by the amount of suitable habitat in a landscape of large habitat proportion. The inclusion of landscape characteristics offers a powerful way for analysing effects on genetic diversity. Further studies on conservation genetics should incorporate a landscape perspective in order to assess the loss of local genetic diversity.     

Genetic effects of landscape,habitat preference and demography on three co‐occurring turtle species

Expanding the scope of landscape genetics beyond the level of single species can help to reveal how species traits influence responses to environmental change. Multispecies studies are particularly valuable in highly threatened taxa, such as turtles, in which the impacts of anthropogenic change are strongly influenced by interspecific differences in life history strategies, habitat preferences and mobility. We sampled approximately 1500 individuals of three co‐occurring turtle species across a gradient of habitat change (including varying loss of wetlands and agricultural conversion of upland habitats) in the Midwestern USA. We used genetic clustering and multiple regression methods to identify associations between genetic structure and permanent landscape features, past landscape composition and landscape change in each species. Two aquatic generalists (the painted turtle, Chrysemys picta, and the snapping turtle Chelydra serpentina) both exhibited population genetic structure consistent with isolation by distance, modulated by aquatic landscape features. Genetic divergence for the more terrestrial Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii), on the other hand, was not strongly associated with geographic distance or aquatic features, and Bayesian clustering analysis indicated that many Emydoidea populations were genetically isolated. Despite long generation times, all three species exhibited associations between genetic structure and postsettlement habitat change, indicating that long generation times may not be sufficient to delay genetic drift resulting from recent habitat fragmentation. The concordances in genetic structure observed between aquatic species, as well as isolation in the endangered, long‐lived Emydoidea, reinforce the need to consider both landscape composition and demographic factors in assessing differential responses to habitat change in co‐occurring species.     

When sources become sinks: migrational meltdown in heterogeneous habitats

We consider the evolution of ecological specialization in a landscape with two discrete habitat types connected by migration, for example, a plant-insect system with two plant hosts. Using a quantitative genetic approach. we study the joint evolution of a quantitative character determining performance in each habitat together with the changes in the population density. We find that specialization on a single habitat evolves with intermediate migration rates, whereas a generalist species evolves with both very low and very large rates of movement between habitats. There is a threshold at which a small increase in the connectivity of the two habitats will result in dramatic decrease in the total population size and the nearly complete loss of use of one of the two habitats through a process of "migrational meltdown." In some situations, equilibria corresponding to a specialist and a generalist species are simultaneously stable. Analysis of our model also shows cases of hysteresis in which small transient changes in the landscape structure or accidental demographic disturbances have irreversible effects on the evolution of specialization.     

The role of habitat selection behavior in population dynamics: source–sink systems and ecological traps

Ecological traps, poor-quality habitat that nonetheless attract individuals, have been observed in both natural and human-altered settings. Until recently, ecological traps were considered a kind of source–sink system, but source–sink theory does not model maladaptive habitat choice, and therefore cannot accurately represent ecological traps or predict their population-level consequences. Although recent models of ecological traps addressed this problem, they used patch-based models containing only two habitats that were very different from one another, but were internally homogeneous. These sorts of patch models may not apply to many real populations, and using them for populations in landscapes with mosaic or gradient habitat structures may be misleading. I developed models that treat source–sink dynamics and ecological traps as special cases of a single process, in which the attractiveness and quality of the habitat are separate variables that can be either positively or negatively related, and in which habitat quality varies continuously throughout the landscape. As expected, sinks are less detrimental to populations than ecological traps, in which preferential use of poor habitat elevates extinction risk. Furthermore, ecological traps may be undetected, and may even appear to be sources, when population sizes are large, but may still prevent recovery in spite of the availability of high-quality habitat when populations drop below threshold levels. Conservation biologists do not routinely consider the possibility that apparent sinks are actually traps, but since traps should be associated with the rapidly changing and novel habitat characteristics primarily produced by human activities, ecological traps should be considered an important and potentially widespread conservation concern.     

Ecological resistance surfaces predict fine‐scale genetic differentiation in a terrestrial woodland salamander

Landscape genetics has seen tremendous advances since its introduction, but parameterization and optimization of resistance surfaces still poses significant challenges. Despite increased availability and resolution of spatial data, few studies have integrated empirical data to directly represent ecological processes as genetic resistance surfaces. In our study, we determine the landscape and ecological factors affecting gene flow in the western slimy salamander (Plethodon albagula). We used field data to derive resistance surfaces representing salamander abundance and rate of water loss through combinations of canopy cover, topographic wetness, topographic position, solar exposure and distance from ravine. These ecologically explicit composite surfaces directly represent an ecological process or physiological limitation of our organism. Using generalized linear mixed‐effects models, we optimized resistance surfaces using a nonlinear optimization algorithm to minimize model AIC. We found clear support for the resistance surface representing the rate of water loss experienced by adult salamanders in the summer. Resistance was lowest at intermediate levels of water loss and higher when the rate of water loss was predicted to be low or high. This pattern may arise from the compensatory movement behaviour of salamanders through suboptimal habitat, but also reflects the physiological limitations of salamanders and their sensitivity to extreme environmental conditions. Our study demonstrates that composite representations of ecologically explicit processes can provide novel insight and can better explain genetic differentiation than ecologically implicit landscape resistance surfaces. Additionally, our study underscores the fact that spatial estimates of habitat suitability or abundance may not serve as adequate proxies for describing gene flow, as predicted abundance was a poor predictor of genetic differentiation.     

Landscape-level comparison of genetic diversity and differentiation in a small mammal inhabiting different fragmented landscapes of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Habitat loss and fragmentation can have detrimental effects on all levels of biodiversity, including genetic variation. Most studies that investigate genetic effects of habitat loss and fragmentation focus on analysing genetic data from a single landscape. However, our understanding of habitat loss effects on landscape-wide patterns of biodiversity would benefit from studies that are based on quantitative comparisons among multiple study landscapes. Here, we use such a landscape-level study design to compare genetic variation in the forest-specialist marsupial Marmosops incanus from four 10,000-hectare Atlantic forest landscapes which differ in the amount of their remaining native forest cover (86, 49, 31, 11 %). Additionally, we used a model selection framework to evaluate the influence of patch characteristics on genetic variation within each landscape. We genotyped 529 individuals with 12 microsatellites to statistically compare estimates of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation in populations inhabiting different forest patches within the landscapes. Our study indicates that before the extinction of the specialist species (here in the 11 % landscape) genetic diversity is significantly reduced in the 31 % landscape, while genetic differentiation is significantly higher in the 49 and 31 % landscapes compared to the 86 % landscape. Results further provide evidence for non-proportional responses of genetic diversity and differentiation to increasing habitat loss, and suggest that local patch isolation impacts gene flow and genetic connectivity only in the 31 % landscape. These results have high relevance for analysing landscape genetic relationships and emphasize the importance of landscape-level study designs for understanding habitat loss effects on all levels of biodiversity.     

Species Differentiation on a Dynamic Landscape: Shifts in Metapopulation Genetic Structure Using the Chronology of the Hawaiian Archipelago

Species formation during adaptive radiation often occurs in the context of a changing environment. The establishment and arrangement of populations, in space and time, sets up ecological and genetic processes that dictate the rate and pattern of differentiation. Here, we focus on how a dynamic habitat can affect genetic structure, and ultimately, differentiation among populations. We make use of the chronology and geographical history provided by the Hawaiian archipelago to examine the initial stages of population establishment and genetic divergence. We use data from a set of 6 spider lineages that differ in habitat affinities, some preferring low elevation habitats with a longer history of connection, others being more specialized for high elevation and/or wet forest, some with more general habitat affinities. We show that habitat preferences associated with lineages are important in ecological and genetic structuring. Lineages that have more restricted habitat preferences are subject to repeated episodes of isolation and fragmentation as a result of lava flows and vegetation succession. The initial dynamic set up by the landscape translates over time into discrete lineages. Further work is needed to understand how genetic changes interact with a changing set of ecological interactions amongst a shifting mosaic of landscapes to achieve species formation.     

Changes in land use and habitat availability affect the population genetic structure of Metrioptera roeselii (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae)

The impact of temporal changes in habitat availability and land use on the present genetic diversity of the grassland katydid species Metrioptera roeselii was investigated in an extensively used agricultural landscape (Lahn-Dill-Bergland, Germany) based on six microsatellite loci. By integrating spatial and temporal dimensions, this study contrasts to conventional approaches that usually record landscape changes at discrete points in time. Molecular data suggest little geographical substructuring of the species. Nevertheless, time-dependent effects on genetic diversity in terms of observed heterozygosity and allelic richness within subpopulations were detected by general linear models (GLM), explaining up to 82 and 13%, respectively. The results indicated that allelic richness was significantly reduced with higher rates of land-use change. Contrastingly, the level of heterozygosity even increased with increasing land-use change, if this rate increase was accompanied by a reduction in grassland amount, while with an increase of grassland amount the level of heterozygosity remained similar. Furthermore, depending on the study site, heterozygosity was differently affected by grassland age of sampled patches and of the surrounding. This is presumably induced by contrasting levels of heterozygosity in combination with differing modes of dispersal due to habitat availability and site-specific matrix effects. The loss of genetic diversity due to frequent land-use change might result in a reduced ability to adapt to landscape change, which is even more relevant in intensively used agricultural landscapes and in the course of climate change.     

Dispersal ability and habitat requirements determine landscape‐level genetic patterns in desert aquatic insects

Species occupying the same geographic range can exhibit remarkably different population structures across the landscape, ranging from highly diversified to panmictic. Given limitations on collecting population‐level data for large numbers of species, ecologists seek to identify proximate organismal traits—such as dispersal ability, habitat preference and life history—that are strong predictors of realized population structure. We examined how dispersal ability and habitat structure affect the regional balance of gene flow and genetic drift within three aquatic insects that represent the range of dispersal abilities and habitat requirements observed in desert stream insect communities. For each species, we tested for linear relationships between genetic distances and geographic distances using Euclidean and landscape‐based metrics of resistance. We found that the moderate‐disperser Mesocapnia arizonensis (Plecoptera: Capniidae) has a strong isolation‐by‐distance pattern, suggesting migration–drift equilibrium. By contrast, population structure in the flightless Abedus herberti (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) is influenced by genetic drift, while gene flow is the dominant force in the strong‐flying Boreonectes aequinoctialis (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae). The best‐fitting landscape model for M. arizonensis was based on Euclidean distance. Analyses also identified a strong spatial scale‐dependence, where landscape genetic methods only performed well for species that were intermediate in dispersal ability. Our results highlight the fact that when either gene flow or genetic drift dominates in shaping population structure, no detectable relationship between genetic and geographic distances is expected at certain spatial scales. This study provides insight into how gene flow and drift interact at the regional scale for these insects as well as the organisms that share similar habitats and dispersal abilities.     

Forest cover, extinction thresholds and time lags in woody plants (Myrtaceae) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: resources for conservation

Efforts to conserve tropical forests could be strengthened based on ecological knowledge, such as extinction thresholds in ecological processes. Many studies of extinction thresholds associated with habitat reduction have focused on animals, generally at the patch scale. However, certain plant groups are very interesting models with which to study this type of relationship, such as Myrtaceae in Neotropical forests. Because trees are long-lived organisms, local extinctions in response to habitat loss may occur in different ways due to a time lag. In this study, our objective was to assess the occurrence of extinction thresholds at the landscape scale for Myrtaceae in a large biome and the pattern of species reduction in different tree size classes. We studied nine landscapes with different amounts of available habitat (between 5 and 55 % forest cover) in different parts of the Atlantic Forest in Bahia, Brazil, and in each landscape, we evaluated four plant classes based on tree circumference: saplings (CBH between 8 and 15 cm), young (CBH between 15 and 30 cm) adults (CBH ≥30 cm) and total (all individuals with CBH ≥8 cm). Landscapes with forest cover less than 25 % presented an approximately sixfold reduction in Myrtaceae total species richness compared with landscapes with forest cover greater than 40 %. We identified a relationship with a threshold between the amount of available habitat at the landscape level and Myrtaceae richness, with a reduction in total, sapling and young species below a threshold of 40 % forest cover, whereas adults had an extinction threshold at 30 % forest cover. We discuss the differences among the categories of plants associated with a time lag and the possibilities and limitations in applying these results in environmental management.