基于功能性状的外来植物入侵预测模型框架构建

预测外来植物的潜在入侵性已成为生物多样性保护研究的重要内容,外来植物与乡土物种间的亲缘关系是预测外来植物能否成功入侵的一个重要途径。然而,达尔文归化难题却预测了两种截然不同的结果(即达尔文归化假说和预适应假说)。该研究解析了达尔文归化难题的内涵,提出了基于功能性状的外来植物与乡土群落间的相似性关系应该是进行外来植物入侵预测的重要切入点,而功能性状的种间分化与种内变异可能是外来植物成功入侵的两种不同生态策略。在此基础上,该研究还通过物种功能性状的多维超体积构建了外来植物与乡土群落间的相似性,提出了基于这种相似性的外来植物入侵预测的研究框架和基本流程。该模型框架的建立有助于理解外来植物的入侵机制,对外来植物的潜在入侵性预测提供了理论依据。当然,要实现外来植物能否成功入侵的准确预测,不仅依赖于功能性状的选择,还要考虑入侵的生境依赖性、空间尺度的重要性以及乡土群落的可入侵性等,未来的研究重点是通过控制实验对该模型进行验证和进一步完善。     

Conflicting values: ecosystem services and invasive tree management

Tree species have been planted widely beyond their native ranges to provide or enhance ecosystem services such as timber and fibre production, erosion control, and aesthetic or amenity benefits. At the same time, non-native tree species can have strongly negative impacts on ecosystem services when they naturalize and subsequently become invasive and disrupt or transform communities and ecosystems. The dichotomy between positive and negative effects on ecosystem services has led to significant conflicts over the removal of non-native invasive tree species worldwide. These conflicts are often viewed in only a local context but we suggest that a global synthesis sheds important light on the dimensions of the phenomenon. We collated examples of conflict surrounding the control or management of tree invasions where conflict has caused delay, increased cost, or cessation of projects aimed at invasive tree removal. We found that conflicts span a diverse range of taxa, systems and countries, and that most conflicts emerge around three areas: urban and near-urban trees; trees that provide direct economic benefits; and invasive trees that are used by native species for habitat or food. We suggest that such conflict should be seen as a normal occurrence in invasive tree removal. Assessing both positive and negative effects of invasive species on multiple ecosystem services may provide a useful framework for the resolution of conflicts.     

Effects of plant invasion on soil nitrogen transformation processes and it’s associated microbial北大核心CSCD

Invasive alien plants not only influence plant community composition, biodiversity and ecosystem structure and function, but also have severe impacts on soil nitrogen transformation processes. The effects of invasive alien plants on nitrogen (N) cycling have been one of the hot topics in invasion ecology. Litter decomposition and its nutrient release play an important role in nutrient cycling. In addition, invasive alien plants have the potential to influence soil N transformation through allelopathy. All these processes are tightly related to soil microbes. Therefore, this review mainly focuses on litter decomposition and its nutrient release, and allelopathy to understand the effects of plant invasion on soil N transformation. Changes in soil N transformation and soil microbes (esp. Ammonia oxidizing bacteria and Ammonia oxidizing archaea) due to plant invasion, as well as the feed-backs of these changes to further invasion of alien plants were discussed. Finally, the interactions between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and plant invasion were reviewed. © Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology     

外来入侵植物对土壤氮转化主要过程及相关微生物的影响

外来入侵植物不仅影响植物群落组成、生物多样性以及生态系统的结构和功能, 而且显著影响土壤氮(N)的转化过程。外来入侵植物对N循环影响的研究已成为入侵生态学的研究热点。N循环与凋落物的分解和养分释放有关, 外来入侵植物能够改变凋落物的组成与结构, 进而影响土壤的N转化过程。另外, 外来入侵植物的化感作用也会影响土壤N转化过程, 这些作用与土壤微生物的结构与功能变化密不可分。该文主要从凋落物分解与养分释放及外来入侵植物化感作用两个方面综述了外来入侵植物对土壤N转化的影响, 总结了外来入侵植物对土壤N转化相关土壤微生物(尤其是氨氧化细菌与氨氧化古菌)的影响, 探讨了土壤N转化对外来植物入侵的反馈, 并探讨了丛植菌根真菌与外来入侵植物的互相影响。     

Arbuscular Mycorrhizas: Drivers or Passengers of Alien Plant Invasion

Observational and manipulative studies have revealed that alien plant invasions are an outcome of interplay between a myriad of biotic and abiotic factors operating at various spatio-temporal stages and scales. Despite the salient role of ubiquitous arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in plant interactions, studies exploring the role of such symbionts in invasiveness of alien species and invasibility of communities are limited, in part because of difficult-culturablilty of AM fungi on artificial media and apparent complexities in manipulations of AM-plant interactions in field and laboratory experiments. Moreover, analysis of the AM-plant invasion studies conducted so far have yielded contradictory results with some indicating facilitation of invasion by AM fungi and others its inhibition. Other studies have indicated that arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis has no effect on invasiveness of alien plants. While arbuscular mycorrhizas may facilitate invasiveness of some alien plants, such plants may also potentially impact mycorrhizal community structure and functions in the invaded habitats in different ways. The present review addresses these paradoxically conflicting observations in the context of mutualism-commensalism-parasitism gradient that characterizes the relationship between AM fungi and their alien vs. native hosts and also discusses the influence of alien invasive plants on mycorrhizal community structure of invaded ecosystems. Through critical analysis of costs and benefits for invasive plants that associate with AM fungi in their introduced range, invasion-induced shifts in AM mutualism are evaluated in the context of their impact on native biodiversity. Underlining limitations of methodologies and experimental designs usually employed to understand AM-mediated plant invasiveness, we proposes herein some alternative frameworks and experimental approaches to overcome these limitations.     

Quantifying levels of biological invasion: towards the objective classification of invaded and invasible ecosystems

Biological invasions are a global phenomenon that threatens biodiversity, and few, if any, ecosystems are free from alien species. The outcome of human‐mediated introductions is affected by the invasiveness of species and invasibility of ecosystems, but research has primarily focused on defining, characterizing and identifying invasive species; ecosystem invasibility has received much less attention. A prerequisite for characterizing invasibility is the ability to compare levels of invasion across ecosystems. In this paper, we aim to identify the best way to quantify the level of invasion by nonnative animals and plants by reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of different metrics. We explore how interpretation and choice of these measures can depend on the objective of a study or management intervention. Based on our review, we recommend two invasion indices and illustrate their use by applying them to two case studies. Relative alien species richness and relative alien species abundance indicate the contribution that alien species make to a community. They are easy to measure, can be applied to various taxa, are independent of scale and are comparable across regions and ecosystems, and historical data are often available. The relationship between relative alien richness and abundance can indicate the presence of dominant alien species and the trajectory of invasion over time, and can highlight ecosystems and sites that are heavily invaded or especially susceptible to invasion. Splitting species into functional groups and examining invasion patterns of transformer species may be particularly instructive for gauging effects of alien invasion on ecosystem structure and function. Establishing standard, transparent ways to define and quantify invasion level will facilitate meaningful comparisons among studies, ecosystem types and regions. It is essential for progress in ecology and will help guide ecosystem restoration and management.     

Effects of plant invasion on soil nitrogen transformation processes and its associated microbes

外来入侵植物不仅影响植物群落组成、生物多样性以及生态系统的结构和功能, 而且显著影响土壤氮(N)的转化过程。外来入侵植物对N循环影响的研究已成为入侵生态学的研究热点。N循环与凋落物的分解和养分释放有关, 外来入侵植物能够改变凋落物的组成与结构, 进而影响土壤的N转化过程。另外, 外来入侵植物的化感作用也会影响土壤N转化过程, 这些作用与土壤微生物的结构与功能变化密不可分。该文主要从凋落物分解与养分释放及外来入侵植物化感作用两个方面综述了外来入侵植物对土壤N转化的影响, 总结了外来入侵植物对土壤N转化相关土壤微生物(尤其是氨氧化细菌与氨氧化古菌)的影响, 探讨了土壤N转化对外来植物入侵的反馈, 并探讨了丛植菌根真菌与外来入侵植物的互相影响。     

Accentuating the positive while eliminating the negative of alien tree invasions: a multiple ecosystem services approach to prioritising control efforts

Invasive plants can have both positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services (ES), with decisions on control often being characterised by conflicts over loss of their perceived positive impacts on individual ES following removal. We present an analytical framework to aid in reducing such conflicts by allocating control effort to both minimise negative impacts and to maximise positive impacts on multiple ES. We used spatial models to map the negative impacts of invasive conifers on biodiversity, perceived landscape quality, and water yield and their positive impacts on erosion protection and carbon storage across a major catchment in the South Island of New Zealand. We tested the effect of distribution type (i.e. hotspot vs Gaussian) on trade-offs among these ES. We also tested whether using a non-linear function optimisation algorithm to fit variable weights to individual ES significantly reduced trade-offs. We show that an optimised multiple-ES approach could considerably reduce conflicts around invasive tree management arising from their contrasting impacts on different ecosystem services (i.e. by reducing trade-offs between ES), but cannot remove such conflict altogether. Our results are consistent with studies showing that ES with a hot-spot type distribution are the most vulnerable to trade-offs in multi-ES prioritisation, and hence will be the most likely to cause conflict in invasive tree control decisions. Our approach also shows that giving higher priority to ES with hot-spot distributions could reduce conflicts (by reducing tradeoffs). We argue that, when ES data are available, including estimates of ES impacts should be among the “due diligence” requirements for developing invasive tree control strategies.     

Plant diversity enhances provision of ecosystem services: A new synthesis

Biodiversity is known to play a fundamental role in ecosystem functioning and thus may positively influence the provision of ecosystem services with benefits to society. There is a need for further understanding of how specific components of biodiversity are affecting service provision. In this context, terrestrial plants are a particularly important component of biodiversity and one for which a wealth of information on biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships is available. In this paper, we consider terrestrial plants as providers of ecosystem services and analyze whether manipulating plant diversity has an effect on the magnitude of ecosystem service provision using a meta-analysis of 197 effect sizes and a vote-counting analysis of 361 significance tests. The results of these analyses are compared with those of a previous meta-analysis that included a wide diversity of service providers. We produce a synthesis table to explicitly link plants as service providers to indicators of ecosystem properties and these to ecosystem services. By focusing on only plants, we found a clear positive effect of biodiversity on six out of eight services analyzed (provisioning of plant products, erosion control, invasion resistance, pest regulation, pathogen regulation and soil fertility regulation). When controlling for pseudoreplication (repeated records from single studies), we found that four of the six positive effects remained significant; only pest regulation and soil fertility showed non-significant effects. Further expanding our basis for inference with the vote-counting analysis corroborated these results, demonstrating that quantitative meta-analysis and vote-counting methods are both useful methods to synthesize biodiversity–ecosystem service studies. Notwithstanding the restricted number of identified services, our results point to the importance of maintaining plant diversity to ensure and increased provision of ecosystem services which benefit human well-being.     

What drives invasibility? A multi‐model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and predicting biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi‐model information‐theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics, and by testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C‐S‐R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility, and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions, and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub‐sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land‐use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub‐sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.     

Alien plants as mediators of ecosystem services and disservices in urban systems: a global review

Urban areas have unique assemblages of species which are governed by novel ecological processes. People living in these environments have specific needs and demands in terms of ecosystem services (ES). Urban ecosystems are transformed in many ways by human activities and their floras comprise a high proportion of alien plant species, many of which were intentionally introduced to provide, augment or restore ES. Urban environments also have novel disturbance regimes and provide colonization sites for the establishment, dispersal and proliferation of alien plant species; such conditions often generate biological invasions which may cause marked changes to ES. We review the roles that alien plants play in providing urban ES and ecosystem disservices (EDS) globally. We identify the main ES and EDS associated with alien plants, and highlight the key species involved. A literature search revealed 335 papers, representing studies in 58 cities or urban areas in 27 countries. These studies recorded 337 alien plant species, contributing to 39 different ES and 27 EDS–310 species were recorded as contributing to ES and 53 species to EDS. A small number of alien plant taxa were frequently recorded as providing multiple ES in many urban ecosystems; the 10 most recorded species accounted for 21% of the ES recorded. Some of these species also result in significant EDS; three species accounted for 30% of the EDS recorded. Cultural services (notably aesthetics) are the most reported ES provided by alien plants in urban areas of developed countries, while provisioning services (notably food production) are most reported in developing countries. The most commonly studied EDS provided by alien plants is the impact on human health (notably allergic reactions). Eighty percent of studies on alien plants and ES and EDS have been done in developed countries. To elucidate the full range of effects of alien plants, more work is needed in developing countries. Urban planners and managers need to be mindful of both the positive and negative impacts of alien plant species to maximise the provision of ES.     

表型可塑性与外来植物的入侵能力

外来植物的入侵能力与其性状之间的关系是入侵生态学中的基本问题之一。成功的入侵种常常能占据多样化的生境,并以广幅的环境耐受性为特征。遗传分化(包括生态型分化)和表型可塑性是广布性物种适应变化、异质性生境的两种不同但并不矛盾和排斥的策略。越来越多的实验证据表明,表型可塑性具有确定的遗传基础,本身是一种可以独立进化的性状。许多入侵种遗传多样性比较低,但同时又占据了广阔的地理分布区和多样化的生境,表型可塑性可能在这些物种的入侵成功和随后的扩散中起到了关键作用。本文首先介绍表型可塑性的含义,简述表型可塑性和生物适应的关系,然后从理论分析和实验证据两个方面论述了表型可塑性与外来植物入侵能力的相关性,最后针对进一步的研究工作进行了讨论。当然,并非所有入侵种的成功都能归因于表型可塑性,作者认为对于那些遗传多样性比较低同时又占据多样化生境的入侵种,表型可塑性和入侵能力的正相关可能是一条普遍法则,而非特例。     

福建省农田生态系统外来入侵植物种类及其分布

为掌握福建省农田生态系统的外来入侵植物种类和分布情况,采用实地调查的方式,对福建省9市农田生态系统中的入侵植物进行调查,并分析了其种类组成、原产地、生活型、分布格局和分布类型及其入侵性等。结果表明,福建省农田生态系统有外来入侵植物30科65属共79种;其中以菊科（Asteraceae）物种数最多,为22种,占总种数的27.85%,其次是苋科（Amaranthaceae）有7种,豆科（Leguminosae）、禾本科（Gramineae）、旋花科（Convolvulaceae）和大戟科（Euphorbiaceae）各有5种。生活型以草本植物为主,占总种数的86.08%;原产于美洲的种类最多,占总种数的70.24%;入侵等级为恶性入侵（1级）的物种有10科22种,严重入侵（2级）有13科22种,局部入侵（3级）、一般入侵（4级）和有待观察类（5级）分别有9、18和8种;恶性入侵和严重入侵的植物种类占入侵植物总数的55.70%。从分布格局和分布类型来看,以福州市的农田生态系统入侵植物种类最多,为52种;不同农田类型中,以旱地中的入侵植物种数最多,有74种;按分布区域划分的全域分布种共13种,按农田类型划分的全域分布种有11种。因此,福建省农田生态系统入侵植物种类繁多,分布广泛,原产地多元化,且恶性和严重入侵植物占比较高,入侵形势严峻,应加强入侵植物的动态监控与防范,以保护生物多样性和生态安全。     

植物氮形态利用策略及对外来植物入侵性的影响

氮是影响外来植物入侵性的重要因素之一, 但相关研究多关注土壤氮水平的效应, 较少考虑氮形态的作用。为从土壤氮形态利用的角度阐释外来植物的入侵机制, 本文在植物氮形态利用策略分析的基础上, 综述了外来植物氮形态利用的偏好性及其对入侵性的影响。植物的氮形态利用策略有偏好性和可塑性两种, 这可能与植物对土壤氮形态特性的长期适应有关; 植物不仅可以对土壤氮形态做出响应, 而且还能改造土壤氮形态, 并对改变后的土壤氮形态做出反馈响应。很多外来植物入侵硝态氮占优势的干扰生境, 偏好硝态氮的外来植物与本地植物竞争硝态氮; 而偏好铵态氮的外来植物通过抑制土壤硝化作用, 营造铵态氮环境, 促进自身生长, 同时抑制偏好硝态氮的本地植物生长。然而, 植物氮形态利用策略不是一成不变的, 而是受多种生物和非生物因素共同作用影响的复杂过程, 今后应加强多因素交互作用对外来入侵植物氮形态利用策略的影响及机制研究, 更好地揭示氮形态利用策略, 尤其是氮形态利用的可塑性与外来植物入侵性的关系。     

Plant invasions in arid areas: special problems and solutions: a South African perspective

Management of invasive alien plants in arid areas is complicated by the cryptic and stochastic nature of the invasion process, the low density of researchers, extension officers and farmers in these areas, the complex, delayed and sometimes, indirect, effects of alien invasive plants on these ecosystems, and by high and shifting values placed on goods and services derived from invasive alien plant species. Fluctuating vegetation cover together with convergent adaptations for dispersal and facilitation enables some desert aliens to invade intact vegetation. Invasive plants in arid areas are not all arid-adapted: the most problematic species globally are phreatic, wetland or oasis specialists that can colonise remote wetlands and springs through a combination of wind-dispersed seeds and vegetative reproduction. Their success is often linked to disturbance and facilitated by agricultural activities including water extraction, cropping and livestock management. Invasive alien plants in arid region wetlands have an impact on forage, water resources and biodiversity in these key resource areas, that is disproportionately great relative to the area they occupy. Management of arid region aliens could include pre-introduction biocontrol planning that makes it possible to use aliens while reducing invasion risks. An alternative is to replace the aliens with extralimital indigenous plants that can supply the rangeland services perceived to be absent from arid environments—but such interventions may carry even greater risks.     

A functional trait perspective on plant invasion

Background and Aims

Global environmental change will affect non-native plant invasions, with profound potential impacts on native plant populations, communities and ecosystems. In this context, we review plant functional traits, particularly those that drive invader abundance (invasiveness) and impacts, as well as the integration of these traits across multiple ecological scales, and as a basis for restoration and management.

Scope

We review the concepts and terminology surrounding functional traits and how functional traits influence processes at the individual level. We explore how phenotypic plasticity may lead to rapid evolution of novel traits facilitating invasiveness in changing environments and then ‘scale up’ to evaluate the relative importance of demographic traits and their links to invasion rates. We then suggest a functional trait framework for assessing per capita effects and, ultimately, impacts of invasive plants on plant communities and ecosystems. Lastly, we focus on the role of functional trait-based approaches in invasive species management and restoration in the context of rapid, global environmental change.

Conclusions

To understand how the abundance and impacts of invasive plants will respond to rapid environmental changes it is essential to link trait-based responses of invaders to changes in community and ecosystem properties. To do so requires a comprehensive effort that considers dynamic environmental controls and a targeted approach to understand key functional traits driving both invader abundance and impacts. If we are to predict future invasions, manage those at hand and use restoration technology to mitigate invasive species impacts, future research must focus on functional traits that promote invasiveness and invader impacts under changing conditions, and integrate major factors driving invasions from individual to ecosystem levels.     

Crowdsourcing indicators for cultural ecosystem services: A geographically weighted approach for mountain landscapes

Integrating cultural dimensions into the ecosystem service framework is essential for appraising non-material benefits stemming from different human–environment interactions. This study investigates how the actual provision of cultural services is distributed across the landscape according to spatially varying relationships. The final aim was to analyse how landscape settings are associated to people's preferences and perceptions related to cultural ecosystem services in mountain landscapes. We demonstrated a spatially explicit method based on geo-tagged images from popular social media to assess revealed preferences. A spatially weighted regression showed that specific variables correspond to prominent drivers of cultural ecosystem services at the local scale. The results of this explanatory approach can be used to integrate the cultural service dimension into land planning by taking into account specific benefiting areas and by setting priorities on the ecosystems and landscape characteristics which affect the service supply. We finally concluded that the use of crowdsourced data allows identifying spatial patterns of cultural ecosystem service preferences and their association with landscape settings.     

景观空间异质性对生态系统服务形成与供给的影响

景观空间异质性与生态系统服务的关系极为密切,适当调整景观空间异质性有助于生态系统服务的持续形成与稳定供给。研究景观空间异质性和生态系统服务形成与供给之间的相互影响作用及响应机制具有重要的理论与现实意义,是保护生物多样性、管理生态系统服务与优化景观空间配置的基础。现有研究大多在不同尺度上探讨了景观格局与生态过程或生态系统服务间的相互影响关系,而缺乏景观格局-生态过程-生态系统服务三者间有效联结等方面的研究。景观空间异质性是怎样直接或间接地作用于生态系统服务形成与供给的,目前还没有一个较为明确的解释。因此,通过分析国内外文献,回顾了景观格局或景观空间异质性与生态系统服务之间关系的研究进展、研究内容和研究方法;从景观组成、景观构型的变化入手,讨论了景观空间异质性对生态系统服务形成与供给的影响及其强度,并认为景观组成异质性变化能够直接影响生态系统服务,而景观构型异质性变化会通过改变生态过程而间接影响生态系统服务;阐述了景观空间异质性在影响生态系统服务形成与供给的同时,也使生态系统服务在空间上产生了异质性分布,并从自然因素和人为因素两个方面对其进行解释;强调了尺度问题在景观空间异质性与生态系统服务研究中的重要性;最后,明确了对生态系统服务形成与供给的景观空间异质性影响研究不仅有助于生态系统服务的维持与调节,也能更深层次地揭示其中的生态学意义。     

Invasive alien plants in China: role of clonality and geographical origin

Biological invasions have become a significant threat to the global environment. Unfortunately, to date there is no consensus on invasion mechanisms and predictive models. Controversies range from whether we can reliably predict which species may become invasive to which species characteristics (e.g., life history, taxonomic groups, or geographic origin) contribute to the invasion processes. We examined 126 invasive alien plant species in China to understand the role of clonality and geographical origin in their invasion success. These species were categorized into three groups (I, II, III) based on their invasiveness in terms of current spatial occupation and the degree of damage to invaded habitats. Clonal plants consisted of almost half (44%) of the 126 invasive species studied, and consisted of 66% of 32 the most invasive alien plant species (Group I). There was a significant positive relationship between clonality and species invasiveness. A 68% of the 126 species studied originated in the continent of America (North and/or South America). These preliminary findings support that America is the primary geographical origin of invasive alien plant species in China and that clonality of the invasive plant species contributed significantly to the their invasiveness. The results suggest an urgent need at the global scale to investigate the mechanisms whereby plant clonal growth influences plant invasions, and the need for a focus at regional scale to examine factors affecting the exchange of invasive plant species between America and China.     

Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species

Aim To assess at a broad scale the vulnerability of Mediterranean vegetation to alien plant invasion under different climatic and disturbance scenarios. Location We simulated the vegetation biogeography and dynamics on five of the main islands of the Mediterranean Basin: Mallorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Crete and Lesvos. Methods We used LPJ‐GUESS, a generalized ecosystem model based on dynamic processes describing establishment, competition, mortality and ecosystem biogeochemistry. We simulated the vegetation distribution and dynamics using a set of plant functional types (PFTs) based on bioclimatic and physiological parameters, which included tree and shrub PFTs defined especially for the Mediterranean. Additionally, two invasive PFTs, an invasive tree type and an invasive herb type, were defined and used to estimate the vulnerability to invasion of a range of different ecosystems. The model was used to simulate climate changes and associated changes in atmospheric [CO₂] to 2050 according to two SpecialReport on Emissions Scenarios climate scenarios (A1Fi and B1) combined with mean disturbance intervals of 3 and 40 years. Results The simulations and scenarios showed that the effect of climate change alone is likely to be negligible in many of the simulated ecosystems, although not all. The simulated progression of an invasion was highly dependent on the initial ecosystem composition and local environmental conditions, with a particular contrast between drier and wetter parts of the Mediterranean, and between mountain and coastal areas. The rate of ecosystem disturbance was the main factor controlling susceptibility to invasion, strongly influencing vegetation development on the shorter time scale. Main conclusions Further invasion into Mediterranean island ecosystems is likely to be an increasing problem: our simulations predict that, in the longer term, almost all the ecosystems will be dominated by exotic plants irrespective of disturbance rates.