南海北部0.36-1.02Ma高分辨率碳屑记录及天然火

依据南海ODP1144站下段（225．7－501．3m,ca.0.36-1.02Ma)碳屑、孢粉记录,将1144站下段225.7-501.3m划分19个碳屑、孢粉组合带（11－29）,并分别与氧同位素11－29期（MIS11－29）相对应。冰期时,草本植物花粉和碳屑总沉积率增加,气候干燥,天然火的强度较大;冰期MIS24,大陆内部及冰期出露的大陆架上的天然火灾强度相对最弱;而冰期MIS12,大陆内部及冰期出露的大陆架上的天然火灾强度相对最强;间冰期气候湿润,草本花粉和碳屑总沉积率降低。一方面由于间冰期海平面上升,大陆架被淹没,导致碳屑来源减少;另一方面亦反应天然火灾强度减低。间冰期MIS17,25和27碳屑沉积率分别较冰期MIS18,24及26略高,推测间冰期MIS17,25和27冬季风强度仍相对较强,大陆内部天然火灾强度亦相对较强。     

南海西沙海槽111PC孔的硅藻与古环境记录

对南海西沙海槽111PC孔沉积物中的硅藻化石研究表明,硅藻以热带、亚热带浮游性种类和近岸性种类为主,可划分出6个硅藻组合带,大体对应于浮游有孔虫氧同位素6个期次。结合有地层对比意义的属种及组合,建立了里斯冰期以来本孔的硅藻生物地层框架。硅藻丰度、属种组合变化指示海区气候经历了冰期-间冰期气候旋回及不稳定性波动。晚玉木冰期硅藻丰度高,冰后期、中玉木冰期次之,里斯冰期至早玉木冰期丰度较低,这与南海西南部不同,与南海东北相似但也不尽相同。里斯冰期至里斯玉木间冰期转换阶段,硅藻属种对气候变暖的反应较快。硅藻属种特征显示中玉木冰期气候为弱暖期,且有早晚两个暖湿阶段。硅藻属种的不连续分布也表明沉积环境在部分时段极不稳定。     

南海北部更新世高分辨率孢粉序列与气候变化

依据南海ODP1144站下段（225.7-501.3m,ca.0.36-1.02Ma)孢粉记录,将1144站下段225.7-501.3m划分19个组合带（11-29）,并分别与氧同位素11-29期（MISs11-29)相对应。冰期时,花粉总沉积率增加,孢粉组合以松粉（Pinus),蕨类植物孢子（Fern)含量降低,草木植物花粉（Herb)含量增加为特征。气候干冷;间冰期时,则相反,间冰期孢粉组合特征反映其气候特征与现代相似,约0.82Ma后孢粉组合中的热带山地针叶类分子叶枝杉（Phyllocladus)的出现,以及草本植物禾本科（Gramineae),莎草科（Cyperaceae)取代耐干冷的蒿属（Artemisia),可能与夏季风增强有关,这一现象可与中国第四纪黄土-古土壤记录进行比较。     

东欧黄土-古土壤剖面的孢粉和气候地层学记录及其与ESR测年的海相地层对比

记述东欧平原黄土－古土壤剖面多重年代地层的划分结果,评估黄土地区更新世主要的古地理事件的对比,建立东欧平原黄土－古土壤发育时期的17个期－9个间冰期和8个冰期,间冰期内次一级单元是吸热凉温阶（endothermal coolings)（冷时段,cold speels),干热阶,湿热阶（thermoxerotic and thermohygrotic stges)和间冰期中次级气候韵律,以及冰期内的冰阶（Stadials),间冰阶（Interstadials),中间阶（interphasials),湿冷阶（cryohygrotic),干冷阶（Cryoxerotic stages) 和冰期中的次级气候韵律,其中吸热凉温阶占据了间冰期的大部分。东欧平面黄土－古土壤形成时期的环境和植被演化由以下剖面的孢粉资料构成：上Oka(Likhvin-Chekalin section),上Don(Strelitsa Section),中Kuma(Otkaznoe,setion),中Dniester(Molodova section,Ketrosy section)和中Desna (Arapovichi section),根据孢粉－气候地层研究获得的原始资料,本文重建了欧亚大陆北部60万年以来的古气候事件,古基岩沉积,冰川,冰缘,外冰缘带沉积,并进行了周期的确定和远距离对比,在综合年代地层柱上的古环境事件及其相应的带和年代地层的对比,是依据亚化石化的软体动物外壳的电子自旋共振分析结果,已知的间冰期集中在58万年,40万年,31万年,22万年及14．5－7万年之间,这些孢粉序列,电子自旋共振测年的气候温暖事件及其他文献记载 的古环境事件的对比关系都标注在上部11个氧同位素阶段里。     

福建沿岸晚第四纪孢粉,硅藻组合及其古环境意义

通过对福建沿岸８个钻孔的孢粉、硅藻的综合分析,发现晚第四纪地层中有８个综合孢粉组合带与７个硅藻阶段。结合古地磁和１４Ｃ测年资料认为,该地区晚第四纪地层划分为晚更新世中、晚期（早大理冰期、大理亚间冰期、晚大理冰期）和全新世（早期、早中期、晚中期、晚期）。气候变迁序列为冷而干燥→暖而湿→冷而干燥→温暖稍干→暖而湿→热暖潮湿→温暖略干→温暖湿润。据古环境分析认为有七次海侵（或海进）,且各次海侵（或海进）的影响范围差异较大     

北京猿人洞穴堆积反映的古气候变化及气候地层上的对比

周口店第一地点洞穴堆积厚达40余米,可划分为17层。它们分别由角砾层与非角砾层(灰烬层、泥砂层以及钟乳石层)等组成。其中角砾层代表冰期、寒冷期或氧同位素的偶数阶段;非角砾层则代表间冰期、温暖期或氧同位素的奇数阶段。它们表明:在中更新世时,周口店地区气候的冷暖变化是明显的,而且气候的大陆性程度有逐渐加强的趋势。第一地点、新洞以及山顶洞等地的沉积物与洞外堆积、陕西洛川的黄土以及深海沉积物等均可进行气候地层学上的对比。     

采用生态位模拟预测濒危植物白豆杉5个时期的适宜分布区

采用生态位模拟研究不同时期植物分布区变迁模式,有利于了解植物对气候变化的响应,从而更好地在全球气候背景下保护生物多样性。本研究以中国特有濒危裸子植物白豆杉(Pseudotaxus chienii)为对象,根据野外调查及标本记录确定34个野生分布点,结合5个时期(末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、中全新世、现在和未来) 19个生物气候因子,运用生态位模型对5个时期白豆杉的潜在分布区进行重建。结果表明:白豆杉在5个时期的地理分布均与降水有密切关系,其中最干月份雨量是影响该物种分布最重要的气候因子,说明白豆杉适应潮湿气候和较短的旱季;在末次间冰期,白豆杉在中国东南呈大面积分布;在末次盛冰期,白豆杉分布区往浙江、福建和贵州东部扩张,江西、湖南等中部地区最适分布区面积减小;中全新世其适宜分布区面积比末次盛冰期有所减少,相比于末次间冰期其生境片段化更为严重;在未来气候变暖条件下,白豆杉适宜分布区减少,该物种往高海拔山地收缩,低海拔(约600 m以下)的适宜区基本消失。本文通过生态位模拟对白豆杉5个时期分布区进行重建,探究气候变化对其分布区变迁的影响,可以为保护濒危植物白豆杉提供有效依据。     

中国北方晚更新世哺乳动物群与深海沉积物的对比

<正> 前言第四纪以来,全球性冰川的进退、气候的波动、海岸线的变迁,已由许多方面的证据所阐明。晚更新世的大理冰期(即相当欧洲的玉木冰期;北美的威斯康辛冰期)在中国北方地区得到明显的反映。大理冰期持续的时间,一般认为是从75,000年前开始,至10,000年前结束,但在全世界范围内各洲先后也有不同。据研究,这次冰期在其发展的过程中,曾经出现了两个高峰阶段和一个小峰阶段。第一次高峰出现在大约距今60,000年前;第二次高峰出现在距今15,000年至12,000年前;一个小峰约在35,000年前。当冰期处于高峰阶段的时候,气温显著下降,沿海和部分大陆架暴露,海面降低;在亚间冰期和间冰期,气候骤然迴升,海面升高,华北东部地区发生海浸。国内外许多单位通过对海底沉积物所作的古温度测定和对古生物生态学的研究并结合陆相地层中孢子花粉的资料,认为冰期的高峰阶段,地球表面的气温至少比今降低6—8℃;而小峰阶段的气温     

云南鹤庆盆地末次盛冰期的孢粉记录与古季风

通过研究相当于末次盛冰期鹤庆古湖泊沉积物4．6－9．0m段的孢粉记录,对该区末次盛冰期阶段的植被与古季风变迁模式进行了恢复。该区末次盛冰期冷湿的气候特点与同时东部干旱的草原植被、青藏、高原的荒漠植被和黄土高原区风尘堆积存在明显差异,而与滇池的气候记录有较好的一致性。冰期内部的气候波动与深海氧同位素记录有较好的可比性。冰期冷锋强度的增加,与北方冬季风的经常入侵和冰期青藏高原的冷源效应有关。     

第四纪大冰期或晚新生代大冰期已经在11,000年前结束了——“天地生人”系列讲座(十一)

在第１０讲 ,我们提出“第三个宏冬（或晚新生代大冰期 ,或第四纪大冰期）已经在１１,０００年前结束了。”严格地讲 ,这一认识并不完全是新的。因为在中国和外国的许多教科书中 ,对第四纪（指过去的１６０或２６０万年内）的气候变迁史已有共识。大家普遍承认 ,在第四纪 ,世界上曾发生过四次冰期。其中末次冰期 ,或玉木冰期 ,相当于深海氧同位素的第２～４阶段 ,发生在距今１ １～７万年 ;倒数第二次冰期 ,或里斯冰期 ,相当于氧同位素的第６阶段 ,则出现在距今１２ ７～１８万年 ;倒数第三次冰期 ,或明德冰期 ,相当于氧同位素的第１４～１…     

Late Quaternary clay mineral record in Central Lake Baikal (Academician Ridge, Siberia)

We investigated the mineralogical composition of two cores recovered on the Academician Ridge (Central Lake Baikal, Siberia). Sedimentological features show that the cores are unaffected by turbidity currents. However, hemipelagic deposition is not continuous, but intermittently disturbed by syn- or post-sediment reworking (e.g., bioturbation, slumps, faulting). Such modes of deposition are consistent with the complex uplift history of the ridge. Bulk mineralogy suggests that terrigenous sediment supplies are constant through glacial/interglacial stages, and diluted by diatom-rich intervals related to warmer interglacial stages. The core stratigraphy is based on the correlation of the diatom zonation and opal abundance with the marine oxygen isotope reference curve SPECMAP. The ∼8-m cores partly recover the last four interglacial/glacial cycles, i.e., since oxygen isotope stage 8. We test the use of clay minerals as a proxy for paleoclimatic reconstruction. The clays are more weathered during the diatom-rich intervals in agreement with warmer climate conditions. However, the mean clay composition does not change significantly through glacial/interglacial stages. This observation implies that, in the Academician Ridge sediments, a simple smectite/illite ratio (S/I) does not alone provide a reliable indicator of climatic variation. It reflects the complex clay assemblages, especially the smectite group, delivered to Central Lake Baikal. Smectites include primarily illite-smectite mixed layers, made of a mixture of montmorillonite and beidellite. According to their behavior after cation saturation, the illite-smectite mixed layers are primarily transformed smectites, with some neoformed smectites intermittently observed. In addition, Al-smectites occur in minor proportions. We conclude that the S/I ratio has a climatic significance only if it evolves in parallel with the weathering stage of the clays and is confirmed by a change in the composition of the smectites.     

Palynology of a 250-m core from Lake Biwa: a 430,000-year record of glacial–interglacial vegetation change in Japan

Lake Biwa is situated in western Honshu, and is the largest and oldest freshwater lake in Japan. During 1982–1983, a long core was drilled to a bottom depth of 1422 m in order to investigate the palaeolimnological record, which contains 911 m of various sedimentary units overlying Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basements. A 249.5-m core of the uppermost bed (T Bed) was palynologically examined at intervals of ca. 2 m. The investigated part of the core covers approximately the last 430,000 years of the mid-Upper Pleistocene and Holocene, and five glacial–interglacial cycles can be recognized. Ten major vegetational zones could be recognized from the bottom to the surface. The zones bearing even numbers, BW-10, 8, 6, 4 and 2, matched glacial periods in which pollen of subarctic taxa (Pinaceae, Betula) and cool–temperate taxa (Fagus, Lepidobalanus) was dominant. In the glacial periods, high pollen values for temperate conifers such as Cryptomeria, Cupressaceae and Sciadopitys indicate interstadial periods. Zones bearing odd numbers, BW-9, 7, 5, 3 and 1, matched interglacial periods with high pollen values for the warm–temperate taxon Cyclobalanopsis, or showed the characteristic appearance of Lagerstroemia, and temperate coniferous taxa (Cryptomeria, Cupressaceae). There were two vegetational types in the interglacial periods. One was the type indicated by BW-9 and 1 zones, when warm–temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees such as Cyclobalanopsis and Castanopsis showed high pollen values, and the warm–temperate deciduous broad-leaved tree Lagerstroemia was lacking. The climate of these interglacial periods seems to have been cold and dry in winter, and warm and wet in summer. The other was the vegetational type recorded in BW-7, 5 and 3 zones, where Lagerstroemia showed low pollen values, and the warm–temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees mentioned above were poorly represented. The climate seems to have been mild and wet in winter, and cool and wet in summer. The dominant pollen values for cool–temperate deciduous broad-leaved taxa such as Fagus and Lepidobalanus are very important indicators of the initiation of both glacial and interglacial periods in western Japan.     

Interpretation of the last‐glacial vegetation of eastern‐central Europe using modern analogues from southern Siberia

Aim Interpretation of fossil pollen assemblages may benefit greatly from comparisons with modern palynological and vegetation analogues. To interpret the full‐ and late‐glacial vegetation in eastern‐central Europe we compared fossil pollen assemblages from this region with modern pollen assemblages from various vegetation types in southern Siberia, which presumably include the closest modern analogues of the last‐glacial vegetation of central Europe. Location Czech and Slovak Republics (fossil pollen assemblages); Western Sayan Mountains, southern Siberia (modern pollen assemblages). Methods Eighty‐eight modern pollen spectra were sampled in 14 vegetation types of Siberian forest, tundra and steppe, and compared with the last‐glacial pollen spectra from seven central European localities using principal components analysis. Results Both full‐ and late‐glacial pollen spectra from the valleys of the Western Carpathians (altitudes 350–610 m) are similar to modern pollen spectra from southern Siberian taiga, hemiboreal forest and dwarf‐birch tundra. The full‐glacial and early late‐glacial pollen spectra from lowland river valleys in the Bohemian Massif (altitudes 185–190 m) also indicate the presence of patches of hemiboreal forest or taiga. Other late‐glacial pollen spectra from the Bohemian Massif suggest an open landscape with steppe or tundra or a mosaic of both, possibly with small patches of hemiboreal forest. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that during the full glacial and late glacial, the mountain valleys of the north‐western Carpathians supported taiga or hemiboreal forest dominated by Larix, Pinus cembra, Pinus sylvestris and Picea, along with some steppic or tundra formations. Forests tended to be increasingly open or patchy towards the west (Moravian lowlands), gradually passing into the generally treeless landscape of Bohemia, with possible woodland patches in locally favourable sites.     

Oxygen concentration profiles in sediments of two ancient lakes: Lake Baikal (Siberia,Russia) and Lake Malawi (East Africa)

Oxygen concentration profiles have been measured, by means of with microelectrodes in sediments of Lake Baikal and Lake Malawi, along transects allowing to give a survey of two major ancient Rift lakes: Lake Baikal (Eastern Siberia) and Lake Malawi (East Africa), along depth transects in the constitutive basins of the lakes and/or of relevant depths with regard to oxygen (including including the deepest point, 1680 m, in Lake Baikal). Sediment oxygen penetration depths (SOPs) display very different patterns, depending on the lake in the two lakes. In Lake Baikal, SOPs are variable, show no significant relationship with bathymetric depth and are surprisingly deep on Akademichesky ridge (> 50.0 mm), emphasizing the distinctive feature of this region in the lake. While the Selenga river is an important source of eutrophication, the similarity of SOP-values in the Selenga shallow with those of most other sites suggests either a dilution of organic material by allochthonous matter, or a strong south-to-north transport of particles. In Lake Malawi, available oxygen is restricted to a maximum of three millimetres of the sediment, and there is a negative relationship with bathymetric depth, as a result of a steady decline of oxygen concentration with depth through the water column. Amongst the few parameters known to affect SOPs, the oxygen consumption by the sediment seems the most significant in both lakes. SOP-values furthermore confirm differences in the trophic status of Baikal and Malawi, respectively. The importance of oxygen as a factor likely to create ecological segregation for benthic organisms is discussed. Lake Malawi offers possibilities of bathymetric segregation but no vertical segregation in the sediment. In contrast, no bathymetric segregation related to oxygen is possible in Lake Baikal, but vertical segregation in the sediment is very likely. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The diatom flora in the ultra-oligotrophic Lake El'gygytgyn,Chukotka

Lake El'gygytgyn, an impact crater lake in northeastern Siberia, was analysed based on water-column characteristics and the modern and sub-recent diatom flora. Vertical temperature, conductivity and oxygen profiles, as well as ionic concentrations in the lake water, reveal that Lake El'gygytgyn is a clear, cold-monomictic, ultra-oligotrophic high-Arctic lake with high light-penetration depth. We identified 113 diatom taxa, of which only 2 species are planktic diatoms. Cyclotella ocellata is the only quantitatively significant diatom present in the modern phytoplankton community, and is also predominant in a short sediment core, which probably reflects the mid- and late-Holocene environmental history of Lake El'gygytgyn. Pliocaenicus costatus var. sibiricus is also common but of minor importance. This is the first evidence of P. costatus var. sibiricus outside the Lake Baikal region.     

Oxygen minimum expansion in the Sulu Sea,western equatorial Pacific,during the last glacial low stand of sea level

The Sulu Sea in the western equatorial Pacific is presently a shallowly-silled, dysaerobic, deep-marine basin. Deep waters in the Sulu Sea are ventilated through a single sill at 420 m depth which connects it to the China Sea. Benthic and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope records, benthic and planktonic foraminiferal census data and total organic carbon measurements have been used to evaluate changes in water mass conditions in the Sulu Sea between the last glacial maximum (18,000 yrs. B.P.) and the present day.An increase in the abundance of the planktonic foraminiferaNeogloboquadrina dutertrei and relatively light planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O values suggest that during the last glacial maximum surface water salinities were reduced in the Sulu Sea. Enhanced isolation of the basin due to glacio-eustatic lowering of sea level and reduced surface salinities resulted in stagnation of deep water and an expansion of the mid-water oxygen minimum layer. Increased organic carbon preservation at mid-water depths occurs at this time. Benthic carbon isotope data and an increase in the abundance of benthic foraminiferal species considered to prefer low oxygen environments support the conclusion of an oxygen-minimum expansion at mid-water depths during the last glacial maximum. At water depths greater than 4000 m, bottom waters appear to have maintained some degree of oxygenation during the last glacial maximum. Stronger Pacific Ocean trade winds at this time may have caused the influx of denser Celebes Sea surface water into the southern part of the Sulu Sea. The slow sinking of this water would have then ventilated bottom waters in this part of the basin.At the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions, rising sea level caused denser water to flow over the deepest sill into the Sulu Sea. Vertical circulation increased, resulting in a greater downward flux of oxygen and a dissipation of the oxygen minimum. Continued post-glacial sea level rise caused periodic ventilation of deep water until the present dysaerobic conditions were established.     

Reconstruction of Indian monsoon variability over the past 230,000 years: Planktic foraminiferal evidence from the NW Arabian Sea open-ocean upwelling area

We determined the faunal composition and total number of tests (#/g) of planktic foraminifera (> 125 μm) in core KH00-05 GOA 6 near Oman in order to decipher monsoon-induced variability of oceanographic productivity in the open-ocean upwelling area in the northwest Arabian Sea. The core contains a continuous record of sedimentation over the last 230 kyr, with the age model based on oxygen isotope and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dates. We focused on species (Globigerina bulloides and Globigerinita glutinata) typical for SW monsoonal upwelling and species typical for NE monsoon conditions (Neogloboquadrina incompta, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globigerinoides ruber, and Globigerinoides sacculifer). The changes in relative abundance of these monsoonal indicators suggest that the open-ocean upwelling area was dominated by the SW monsoon during interglacial periods, but by the NE monsoon during glacial periods.Increases in total test abundance during glacial periods confirmed that the NE monsoon rather than SW monsoon contributes largely to planktic foraminiferal productivity in this area. We argue that three types of circumstances resulted in high productivity, with nine high productivity events occurring at a 23-kyr frequency. The first type caused high productivity events at 102 and 199 ka (interglacial periods), characterized by the dominance of upwelling species, indicating high productivity during strong SW monsoons, correlated with high July insolation at 45° N. An exceptional high productivity event occurred at 37 ka during interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 3, with contributions from both SW and NE monsoons. The second type of high productivity event occurred at 61, 147, and 175 ka, during glacial periods, characterized by dominance of NE monsoon species, and correlated with low January insolation at 45° N. In addition, a high productivity event at 85 ka (interglacial period) also was induced by enhanced NE monsoons. The last two high productivity events occurred during transitional periods from glacial to interglacial (MIS 6/5.5 and 2/1), were characterized by the replacement of NE monsoon species with upwelling species, and corresponded to abrupt climate warming, suggesting that they are related to both accelerated SW monsoon systems and reduced NE monsoon systems.     

Organic geochemical changes in Pliocene sediments of ODP Site 1083 (Benguela Upwelling System)

The intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (INHG) was a major event in the development of the current climate state, and as one of the most productive regions in the world's oceans, the behaviour of the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS) following the INHG is of wide interest. To investigate post-INHG changes in productivity and organic matter accumulation, total organic carbon and biomarker accumulation rates were determined for sediments from ODP Site 1083 and compared to alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures and nitrogen isotopic compositions. These data indicate that the interval between 2.6 and 2.4 Ma was characterized by dramatic changes in upwelling intensity and organic carbon export on the northern edge of the modern BUS. The upwelling is reflected by significant changes in alkenone-derived SST estimates between glacial and interglacial intervals, with a total variability of 16 °C. The studied interval is also characterized by large changes in organic matter export as reflected by changes in TOC and biomarker accumulation rates, which show maxima during OIS 98 and during the transition from OIS 97 to 96. Intervals of elevated TOC are also characterized by elevated concentrations of sedimentary microbial biomarkers and lower %CaCO₃, suggesting that enhanced delivery of labile organic matter to the seafloor resulted in enhanced remineralisation with released CO₂ being consumed by CaCO₃ dissolution. However, in apparent contrast to recent Pleistocene sediments at the same site, organic matter export after the INHG was not solely driven by upwelling intensity. Of the three Pliocene glacial–interglacial cycles examined (OIS 101 to 96), each is unique with respect to the timing and magnitude of changes in organic matter accumulation. Each is also characterized by different algal assemblages as inferred from biomarker distributions, with OIS 97 and 96 particularly dominated by diatoms. We suggest that these differences reflect the important but evolving role of Southern Ocean waters in the Pliocene BUS: nutrient depletion of SO waters occurred during parts of Pliocene glacial intervals such that even intense upwelling did not persistently result in enhanced organic matter accumulation rates.     

Assessing the vulnerability of endemic diatom species in Lake Baikal to predicted future climate change: a multivariate approach

Diatoms in Lake Baikal exhibit significant spatial variation, related to prevailing climate, lake morphology and fluvial input into the lake. Here we have assessed the threats to endemic planktonic diatom species (through the development of empirical models), which form a major component of primary production within the lake. Multivariate techniques employed include redundancy analysis (RDA) and Huisman–Olff–Fresco (HOF) models. Our analyses suggest that eight environmental variables were significant in explaining diatom distribution across the lake, and in order of importance these are snow thickness on the ice, water depth, duration of days with white ice, suspended matter in the lake, days of total ice duration, temperature of the water surface in July, concentration of zooplankton and suspended organic matter. Impacts on dominant phytoplankton diatom species are highlighted using t‐value biplots. Predictions of future climate change on Lake Baikal are likely to result in shorter periods of ice cover, decreased snow cover across the lake in spring, increased fluvial input into the lake, and an increase in the intensification of surface water stratification during summer months. All these factors are likely to impact negatively on the slow‐growing, cold‐water endemics such as Aulacoseira baicalensis and Cyclotella minuta, which currently dominate diatom assemblages. Instead, taxa that are only intermittently abundant, at present, in offshore areas (e.g. Stephanodiscus meyerii) are likely to become more frequent. However, given the climatic gradient across the lake, the timing and extent of changes in community structure are likely to vary. Moreover, palaeolimnological records show that Lake Baikal diatom assemblages have been dynamic throughout the Holocene, with both endemic and cosmopolitan species exhibiting periods of dominance. Effects of climate change on the entire lake ecosystem may yet be profound as the structure of the pelagic food web may change from one based on endemic diatom taxa to one dominated by nondiatom picoplankton, and as limnological functioning (e.g. stratification and mixing) affects deepwater oxygen availability, nutrient cycling and trophic linkages.     

Analysis of multiple depth profiles in sediment cores: an application to pollen and diatom data from lakes sensitive to acidification

The methods of clustering and ordination were compared with polynomial and segmented regression methods by application to the pollen and diatom profiles from two sediment cores obtained from lakes susceptible to acid precipitation. Clustering and ordination methods have previously been used to determine zones in sediment profiles, but regression methods which summarize the changes with depth in terms of one or more smooth curves, explicitly use the depth information. Plots of running means were also used to characterize profile shapes. The latter two methods provided a clearer understanding of the changes in diatom and pollen levels in the cores. For low diatom concentrations, non-parametric methods were used to test for a change in concentration with depth. Changes in dry weight of sediment, different bases for concentration and depth, and the effect of poor represententation of an extreme group on the pH spectrum were also considered. The regression procedures were shown to provide summaries useful for comparison of different species or of the same species in different cores. Finally, a summary is given of the similarity of the patterns in the depth profiles of eight pollen types and the non-rare diatom species in one core from each of Kejimkujik and Beaverskin Lakes, respectively.