Relationship between heatwave‐induced forest die‐off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species

In recent decades, many forest die‐off events have been reported in relation to climate‐change‐induced episodes, such as droughts and heat waves. To understand how these extreme climatic events induce forest die‐off, it is important to find a tool to standardize the climatic conditions experienced by different populations during a specific climatic event, taking into account the historic climatic conditions of the site where these populations live (bioclimatic niche). In this study, we used estimates of climatic suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) for such purpose. We studied forest die‐off across France during the 2003 heatwave that affected Western Europe, using 2,943 forest inventory plots dominated by 14 single tree species. Die‐off severity was estimated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) loss using Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensor imagery. Climatic suitability at the local level during the historical 1979–2002 period (HCS), the episode time (2003; ECS) and suitability deviance during the historical period (HCS‐SD) were calculated for each species by means of boosted regression tree models using the CHELSA climate database and occurrences extracted from European forest inventories. Low HCS‐SD and high mean annual temperature explained the overall regional pattern of vulnerability to die‐off across different monospecific forests. The combination of high historical and low episode climatic suitability also contributed significantly to overall forest die‐off. Furthermore, we observed different species‐specific relationships between die‐off vulnerability and climatic suitability: Sub‐Mediterranean and Mediterranean species tended to be vulnerable in historically more suitable localities (high HCS), whereas Euro‐Siberian species presented greater vulnerability when the hot drought episode was more intense. We demonstrated that at regional scale, past climatic legacy plays an important role in explaining NDVI loss during the episode. Moreover, we demonstrated that SDMs‐derived indexes, such as HCS, ECS and HCS‐SD, could constitute a tool for standardizing the ways that populations and species experience climatic variability across time and space.     

A first assessment of the impact of the extreme 2018 summer drought on Central European forests

In 2018, Central Europe experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting summer drought and heat wave ever recorded. Before 2018, the 2003 millennial drought was often invoked as the example of a “hotter drought”, and was classified as the most severe event in Europe for the last 500 years. First insights now confirm that the 2018 drought event was climatically more extreme and had a greater impact on forest ecosystems of Austria, Germany and Switzerland than the 2003 drought. Across this region, mean growing season air temperature from April to October was more than 3.3°C above the long-term average, and 1.2°C warmer than in 2003. Here, we present a first impact assessment of the severe 2018 summer drought and heatwave on Central European forests. In response to the 2018 event, most ecologically and economically important tree species in temperate forests of Austria, Germany and Switzerland showed severe signs of drought stress. These symptoms included exceptionally low foliar water potentials crossing the threshold for xylem hydraulic failure in many species and observations of widespread leaf discoloration and premature leaf shedding. As a result of the extreme drought stress, the 2018 event caused unprecedented drought-induced tree mortality in many species throughout the region. Moreover, unexpectedly strong drought-legacy effects were detected in 2019. This implies that the physiological recovery of trees was impaired after the 2018 drought event, leaving them highly vulnerable to secondary drought impacts such as insect or fungal pathogen attacks. As a consequence, mortality of trees triggered by the 2018 events is likely to continue for several years. Our assessment indicates that many common temperate European forest tree species are more vulnerable to extreme summer drought and heat waves than previously thought. As drought and heat events are likely to occur more frequently with the progression of climate change, temperate European forests might approach the point for a substantial ecological and economic transition. Our assessment also highlights the urgent need for a pan-European ground-based monitoring network suited to track individual tree mortality, supported by remote sensing products with high spatial and temporal resolution to track, analyse and forecast these transitions.     

Epidemiology and heat waves: analysis of the 2003 episode in France

Epidemiology and heat waves: analysis of the 2003 episode in France. The heat wave that struck France in 2003 has been accompanied with an estimated 15,000 excess deaths. This paper stresses the difficulties of the epidemiology of such an event. The relevant clinical and biological information is incomplete or even inaccessible and many of the deaths are due to multiple factors. The data presently available indicate that the deaths occurred in persons already vulnerable, and that the heat wave caused a five- to eight-month loss of lifetime for the affected individuals. There is a noteworthy similarity between the profiles of this exceptional summer mortality surge, and those of many past winters when similar or larger excess mortalities ave occurred without as yet eliciting much public attention.     

农户对气候变化的感知与适应研究综述

气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一,加剧了许多国家和地区的脆弱性,人类如何适应气候变化已成为当前全社会普遍关注的话题.气候变化对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响尤为显著,更好地理解农户对气候变化的适应机制和适应过程对于制定有效的适应政策非常重要.公众感知作为理解人文响应行动的基础,已为探明农户对气候变化的适应机制和适应过程提供了一个新视角.本文基于国内外农户对气候变化的感知和适应的理论研究和实践进展,在分析气候变化对农户生计的影响、系统总结农户面临的主要适应障碍的基础上,梳理了农户的气候变化感知与适应的关系,阐释了农户适应气候变化过程中的关键认知要素,介绍了农户对气候变化的感知与适应关系分析框架,提出了农户对气候变化的感知与适应关系研究中应关注的关键问题.     

Estimation of the tourism climate in the Hunter Region,Australia, in the early twenty-first century

Existing tourism-related climate information and evaluation are typically based on mean monthly conditions of air temperature and precipitation and do not include thermal perception and other climate parameters relevant for tourists. Here, we quantify climate based on the climate facets relevant to tourism (thermal, physical, aesthetical), and apply the results to the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). This paper presents bioclimatic and tourism climatological conditions in the Hunter Region—one of Australia’s most popular tourist destinations. In the Hunter Region, generally, temperatures below 15°C occur from April through October, temperatures less than 25°C are expected throughout the whole year, while humidity sits around 50%. As expected, large differences between air temperature and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) were clearly identified. The widest differences were seen in summer time rather than in the winter period. In addition, cold stress was observed less than 10% of the time in winter while around 40–60% of heat stress was observed in summer time. This correlates with the highest numbers of international visitors, who usually seek a warmer weather, at the beginning of summer time (November and December) and also to the number of domestic visitors, who tend to seek cooler places for recreation and leisure, in late summer (January–March). It was concluded that thermal bioclimate assessment such as PET and CTIS can be applied in the Hunter region, and that local governments and the tourism industry should take an integrated approach to providing more relevant weather and climate information for both domestic and international tourists in the near future.     

Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response?

The paper examines impacts on mortality of heat waves in 2003, the hottest summer on record in the Czech Republic, and compares them with previous similar events. While most summer heat waves over the period since 1986 were associated with significantly elevated mortality, this was not the case for three out of the four heat waves in 2003. The relatively weak mortality response was particularly noteworthy for the most severe heat wave which occurred in the first 10 days of August 2003 and resulted in enormous excess mortality in some western European countries. A mortality displacement effect and short-term adaptation to heat contributed to the reduced mortality impacts of the heat waves that followed after previous relatively warm periods. However, the decreased mortality response of the 2003 heat waves compared to previous heat waves in the 1990s is also likely to have arisen from positive health-care and other socio-economic changes in the post-communist central European region over the past decade, as well as a better public awareness of heat-related risks due to enhanced media coverage and regular biometeorological forecast and warnings.     

湿地自然保护区旅游者环境教育感知研究——以盐城丹顶鹤、麋鹿国家自然保护区为例

环境教育是当前生态旅游研究中的热点论题。基于生态旅游动机、环境教育途径、环境教育感知及环境教育效果4个结构变量,以生态旅游发展处于起步阶段的盐城丹顶鹤保护区和处于稳定发展阶段的盐城麋鹿保护区为例,构建湿地自然保护区旅游者环境教育感知影响结构关系模型,深入分析不同生命周期阶段生态旅游地旅游者环境教育感知分异及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)生态旅游动机、环境教育途径、环境教育感知均对环境教育效果产生正向影响。丹顶鹤保护区生态旅游动机对环境教育效果产生显著正向影响,环境教育途径、环境教育感知对环境教育效果均产生正向影响;麋鹿保护区生态旅游动机、环境教育途径均对环境教育效果产生正向影响,环境教育感知对环境教育效果产生显著正向影响。(2)在生态旅游动机、环境教育途径、环境教育感知3个分维度上,丹顶鹤保护区分别以一般生态旅游动机、常规环境教育途径、表层环境教育感知为主,麋鹿保护区则分别以严格生态旅游动机、专门环境教育途径、深度环境教育感知为主。(3)不同生命周期阶段生态旅游地游客环境教育效果存在差异。丹顶鹤保护区游客环境教育效果主要集中在态度、行为效果上,意识效果为辅,知识、技能效果作用较小;麋鹿保护区游客环境教育效果则以知识、态度效果为主,行为、技能、意识效果均起辅助作用。     

A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri – 1980 and 1995

 This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6°C (105°F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions. Received: 12 August 1997 / Revised: 12 January 1998 / Accepted: 13 February 1998     

Bayesian modeling of multiple episode occurrence and severity with a terminating event

An individual's health condition can affect the frequency and intensity of episodes that can occur repeatedly and that may be related to an event time of interest. For example, bleeding episodes during pregnancy may indicate problems predictive of preterm delivery. Motivated by this application, we propose a joint model for a multiple episode process and an event time. The frequency of occurrence and severity of the episodes are characterized by a latent variable model, which allows an individual's episode intensity to change dynamically over time. This latent episode intensity is then incorporated as a predictor in a discrete time model for the terminating event. Time-varying coefficients are used to distinguish among effects earlier versus later in gestation. Formulating the model within a Bayesian framework, prior distributions are chosen so that conditional posterior distributions are conjugate after data augmentation. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm. The methods are illustrated using bleeding episode and gestational length data from a pregnancy study.     

From nestling calls to fledgling silence: adaptive timing of change in response to aerial alarm calls

Young birds and mammals are extremely vulnerable to predators and so should benefit from responding to parental alarm calls warning of danger. However, young often respond differently from adults. This difference may reflect: (i) an imperfect stage in the gradual development of adult behaviour or (ii) an adaptation to different vulnerability. Altricial birds provide an excellent model to test for adaptive changes with age in response to alarm calls, because fledglings are vulnerable to a different range of predators than nestlings. For example, a flying hawk is irrelevant to a nestling in a enclosed nest, but is dangerous to that individual once it has left the nest, so we predict that young develop a response to aerial alarm calls to coincide with fledging. Supporting our prediction, recently fledged white-browed scrubwrens, Sericornis frontalis, fell silent immediately after playback of their parents' aerial alarm call, whereas nestlings continued to calling despite hearing the playback. Young scrubwrens are therefore exquisitely adapted to the changing risks faced during development.     

本溪关门山国家森林公园游客行为特征

研究游客行为特征对于旅游资源的开发、管理以及旅游目的地的可持续发展具有重要的作用。以本溪关门山国家森林公园为研究对象,通过问卷调查的方法对游客的人口统计学特征、地域结构特征、一般行为特征、消费特征及感知特征进行了研究。结果表明:关门山国家森林公园的游客以较高学历的男性中青年为主;客源主要来自本省辽宁,并以沈阳、本溪和大连的游客为主,客源地理集中度指数为35.71;旅游的主要目的是观赏枫叶,出游时间大部分集中在每年"十一"黄金周期间,且半数以上为当日往返的短程游览者;游客偏好与家人一起出游的旅行方式,所选择的交通工具主要为自驾车和旅游专车;游客的消费结构不平衡,主要集中于景区门票和交通费,占总消费的56.7%;游客对景区的喜好度依次为龙门峡景区月台子景区小黄山景区夹砬子景区鸣翠谷景区。总的来说,游客满意度较高,有89.1%的游客愿意重游此地,游客最不满意的地方主要表现在景区卫生方面。基于调查研究结果,对关门山国家森林公园的开发建设和可持续发展提供了相关建议。     

Bottlenecks drive temporal and spatial genetic changes in alpine caddisfly metapopulations

Background

Extinction and re-colonisation of local populations is common in ephemeral habitats such as temporary streams. In most cases, such population turnover leads to reduced genetic diversity within populations and increased genetic differentiation among populations due to stochastic founder events, genetic drift, and bottlenecks associated with re-colonisation. Here, we examined the spatio-temporal genetic structure of 8 alpine caddisfly populations inhabiting permanent and temporary streams from four valleys in two regions of the Swiss Alps in years before and after a major stream drying event, the European heat wave in summer 2003.

Results

We found that population turnover after 2003 led to a loss of allelic richness and gene diversity but not to significant changes in observed heterozygosity. Within all valleys, permanent and temporary streams in any given year were not differentiated, suggesting considerable gene flow and admixture between streams with differing hydroperiods. Large changes in allele frequencies after 2003 resulted in a substantial increase in genetic differentiation among valleys within one to two years (1-2 generations) driven primarily by drift and immigration. Signatures of genetic bottlenecks were detected in all 8 populations after 2003 using the M-ratio method, but in no populations when using a heterozygosity excess method, indicating differential sensitivity of bottleneck detection methods.

Conclusions

We conclude that genetic differentiation among A. uncatus populations changed markedly both temporally and spatially in response to the extreme climate event in 2003. Our results highlight the magnitude of temporal population genetic changes in response to extreme events. More specifically, our results show that extreme events can cause rapid genetic divergence in metapopulations. Further studies are needed to determine if recovery from this perturbation through gradual mixing of diverged populations by migration and gene flow leads to the pre-climate event state, or whether the observed changes represent a new genetic equilibrium.     

游客和居民视角下武夷山市生态系统文化服务感知比较研究

生态系统文化服务(CES)的核心是人与自然之间的情感连接,利益相关者视角下的参与式制图是感知与保护热点文化服务地区的有效方法。采用参与式制图与访谈、问卷相结合的方式调查了游客和居民2类群体对武夷山市CES的感知情况;利用空间分析、热点分析和相关性分析比较分析了游客和居民CES的感知差异特征、影响因素及其空间分布格局。结果表明：(1)除了居民月收入对感知有影响外,游客和居民对武夷山市CES认知基本不受人口学特征(性别、年龄、职业和文化程度)的影响(P>0.05);(2)居民的CES价值人均支付保护意愿较游客高。文化遗产、游憩与生态旅游、教育、美学价值是游客和居民都重视的4类子文化服务。游客对文化遗产价值服务的支付意愿最高,而居民则对教育价值服务支付意愿最高。(3)居民对CES价值感知分布空间范围较广,几乎涵盖了武夷山市大部分乡镇;而游客则相对集中,主要位于旅游点密集区域,对其他地区的感知程度较低。CES价值冷热感知程度与旅游点分布呈现相同的空间分布格局,游客和居民对CES价值热点区的感知强度从南向北逐渐降低。(4)从不同文化服务类型权衡/协同关系上看,除了“精神与宗教价值”和“游憩...     

Heat wave impacts on mortality in Shanghai, 1998 and 2003

A variety of research has linked extreme heat to heightened levels of daily mortality and, not surprisingly, heat waves both in 1998 and in 2003 all led to elevated mortality in Shanghai, China. While the heat waves in the two years were similar in meteorological character, elevated mortality was much more pronounced during the 1998 event, but it remains unclear why the human response was so varied. In order to explain the differences in human mortality between the two years’ heat waves, and to better understand how heat impacts human health, we examine a wide range of meteorological, pollution, and social variables in Shanghai during the summers (15 June to 15 September) of 1998 and 2003. Thus, the goal of this study is to determine what was responsible for the varying human health response during the two heat events. A multivariate analysis is used to investigate the relationships between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season, along with levels of air pollution. It was found that for heat waves in both summers, mortality was strongly associated with the duration of the heat wave. In addition, while slightly higher than average, the air pollution levels for the two heat waves were similar and cannot fully explain the observed differences in human mortality. Finally, since the meteorological conditions and pollution levels for the two heat waves were alike, we conclude that improvements in living conditions in Shanghai, such as increased use of air conditioning, larger living areas, and increased urban green space, along with higher levels of heat awareness and the implementation of a heat warning system, were responsible for the lower levels of human mortality in 2003 compared to 1998.     

高寒生态脆弱区农户对气候变化的感知——以甘南高原为例

气候变化作为人类当前面临的最严峻挑战,已对生态脆弱区农户生计产生严重的负面影响,明确农户对气候变化的感知对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策非常关键。以甘南高原为研究区,基于入户调查数据,构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数,分析了甘南高原农户的气候变化感知特征,并采用经济计量模型分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明:(1)甘南高原农户对气温变化的感知能力强于对降水变化的感知,并对近期发生的、规模较大、影响较严重的极端天气记忆较深;(2)农户对气候变化的严重性及可能性感知较强烈,感知到的适应成本与适应功效也较高,但感知到的自我效能较弱,其气候变化严重性、可能性、适应功效、自我效能及适应成本感知度指数分别为3.76、3.34、3.43、2.85、3.53,且农区农户对气候变化的风险感知与适应感知均最强,半农半牧区次之,纯牧区最弱;(3)气候变化信息、农户的客观适应能力、农户对社会话语的信任度、适应激励均会影响农户的气候变化感知,其中,适应激励为最关键的影响因素,其与农户的气候变化适应功效感知、自我效能感知均呈正相关,而与风险感知、适应成本感知呈负相关。最后,针对如何提高农户气候变化感知的准确度,增强农户应对气候变化的能力,提出相关的政策建议。     

Effect of the extreme summer heat waves on isolated populations of two orophitic plants in the north Apennines (Italy)

One of the lesser known effects of global climate change is the occurrence of heat waves. Climatic models predict that heat waves will become more intense, longer lasting and/or more frequent, as a consequence of the increased inter‐annual variability and increased average values of summer temperatures. Plants are damaged by heat waves through direct effects of extreme temperatures influencing plant physiology and through indirect effects, like drought and exposure to high ozone concentration. This study investigates the flowering abundance and biomass production of two orophytic species, Alopecurus alpinus Vill. and Vicia cusnae Foggi et Ricceri following the heat wave that occurred in the summer of 2003 and analyses the effects of summer temperatures during the period 1999–2004 on the species reproductive performance. In 2003, we observed a significant decrease in the number of flowering stems and flowers per flowering stem for both species. Flower production reached its lowest value in correspondence to the heat wave in 2003 and Redundancy Analysis showed that flower production was related to the mean June temperature. Flower production was more sensitive than vegetative growth, which was maintained. This suggests that changes in reproductive strategies, e.g. changes in the ratio between sexual and clonal reproduction, may occur by as an effect of extreme weather events. Such changes may be of great importance when the population consists of a small number of flowering individuals, as is the case for A. alpinus and V. cusnae in the study area. As a consequence, although the plants generally responded positively to gradual warming, we found that, during the monitoring period 1999–2004, extreme temperatures had a negative effect on A. alpinus and V. cusnae.     

Synergistic effects of an extreme weather event and habitat fragmentation on a specialised insect herbivore

Habitat fragmentation is considered to be one of the main causes of population decline and species extinction worldwide. Furthermore, habitat fragmentation can decrease the ability of populations to resist and to recover from environmental disturbances such as extreme weather events, which are expected to occur at an increasing rate as a result of climate change. In this study, we investigated how calcareous grassland fragmentation affected the impact of the climatically extreme summer of 2003 on egg deposition rates, population size variation and survival of the blue butterfly Cupido minimus, a specialist herbivore of Anthyllis vulneraria. Immediately after the 2003 summer heat wave, populations of the host plant declined in size; this was paralleled with decreases in population size of the herbivore and altered egg deposition rates. In 2006 at the end of the monitoring period, however, most A. vulneraria populations had recovered and only one population went extinct. In contrast, several butterfly populations had gone extinct between 2003 and 2006. Extinction probability was significantly related to initial population size, with small populations having a higher risk of extinction than large populations. These results support the prediction that species of higher trophic levels are more susceptible to extinction due to habitat fragmentation and severe disturbances.     

Components of tree resilience: effects of successive low‐growth episodes in old ponderosa pine forests

Recent world‐wide episodes of tree dieback have been attributed to increasing temperatures and associated drought. Because these events are likely to become more common, improved knowledge of their cumulative effects on resilience and the ability to recover pre‐disturbance conditions is important for forest management. Here we propose several indices to examine components of individual tree resilience based on tree ring growth: resistance (inverse of growth reduction during the episode), recovery (growth increase relative to the minimum growth during the episode), resilience (capacity to reach pre‐episode growth levels) and relative resilience (resilience weighted by the damage incurred during the episode). Based on tree ring analyses, we analyzed historical patterns of tree resilience to successive drought‐induced low growth periods in ponderosa pine trees growing in unmanaged, remote forests of the Rocky Mountains. Low‐growth periods registered in tree rings were related to anomalies in the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and were attributed to drought. Independently of the impact of a specific event, subsequent growth after a single low‐growth episode was related to the growth prior to the event. Growth performance differed with tree age: young trees were overall more resistant to low‐growth periods, but older trees recovered better from more recent events. Regardless of tree age, recently burned sites exhibited lower post‐episode growth and lower resistance and resilience than unburned ones. We found mixed evidence for the cumulative effect of past low‐growth episodes: overall, greater impacts of a prior event and greater cumulative effects of past low‐growth periods caused a decrease in resistance. However, we did not find a progressive decrease in resilience over time in old trees. Our results highlight the value of using a combination of estimators to evaluate the different components of resilience. Specifically, while tree responses to disturbance depend on past disturbance episodes, the response is context‐specific and depends on the impact the capacity to recover after disturbance. This suggests that recent increases in forest mortality under current climate trends could relate to thresholds on specific components of resilience (resistance, recovery, resilience itself) rather than to an overall loss of resilience over time. Identifying such thresholds and their underlying mechanisms is a promising area of research with important implications for forest management.     

Ontogeny of energy allocation reveals selective pressure promoting risk-taking behaviour in young fish cohorts

Given limited food, prey fishes in a temperate climate must take risks to acquire sufficient reserves for winter and/or to outgrow vulnerability to predation. However, how can we distinguish which selective pressure promotes risk-taking when larger body size is always beneficial? To address this question, we examined patterns of energy allocation in populations of age-0 trout to determine if greater risk-taking corresponds with energy allocation to lipids or to somatic growth. Trout achieved maximum growth rates in all lakes and allocated nearly all of their acquired energy to somatic growth when small in early summer. However, trout in low-food lakes took greater risks to achieve this maximal growth, and therefore incurred high mortality. By late summer, age-0 trout allocated considerable energy to lipids and used previously risky habitats in all lakes. These results indicate that: (i) the size-dependent risk of predation (which is independent of behaviour) promotes risk-taking behaviour of age-0 trout to increase growth and minimize time spent in vulnerable sizes; and (ii) the physiology of energy allocation and behaviour interact to mediate growth/mortality trade-offs for young animals at risk of predation and starvation.     

Behavioural responses of South American fur seals to approach by tourists - a brief report

I studied the responses (retreats, threats, attacks or leaving the rookery) of South American fur seals Arctocephalus australis to tourist approaches at a non-reproductive, continental colony of located in Cabo Polonio, Uruguay (34 degrees 24'S, 53 degrees 46'W). Fur seals tolerated relatively close distances to humans, but a strong response of the animals was elicited when tourists crossed a threshold of 10m. The attitude of the tourist was also important. Calm people were able to approach the colony without almost any disturbance. These results suggested that, with a minimal control of visitor's behaviour, the impact of tourism on this colony would be low.