Do Cadmium, Lead, and Aluminum in Drinking Water Increase the Risk of Hip Fractures? A NOREPOS Study

The aim of this study was to investigate relations between cadmium, lead, and aluminum in municipality drinking water and the incidence of hip fractures in the Norwegian population. A trace metals survey in 566 waterworks was linked geographically to hip fractures from hospitals throughout the country (1994–2000). In all those supplied from these waterworks, 5,438 men and 13,629 women aged 50–85 years suffered a hip fracture. Poisson regression models were fitted, adjusting for age, region of residence, urbanization, and type of water source as well as other possibly bone-related water quality factors. Effect modification by background variables and interactions between water quality factors were examined (correcting for false discovery rate). Men exposed to a relatively high concentration of cadmium (IRR?=?1.10; 95 % CI 1.01, 1.20) had an increased risk of fracture. The association between relatively high lead and hip fracture risk was significant in the oldest age group (66–85 years) for both men (IRR?=?1.11; 95 % CI 1.02, 1.21) and women (IRR?=?1.10; 95 % CI 1.04, 1.16). Effect modification by degree of urbanization on hip fracture risk in men was also found for all three metals: cadmium, lead, and aluminum. In summary, a relatively high concentration of cadmium, lead, and aluminum measured in drinking water increased the risk of hip fractures, but the associations depended on gender, age, and urbanization degree. This study could help in elucidating the complex effects on bone health by risk factors found in the environment.     

Thaw depth determines reaction and transport of inorganic nitrogen in valley bottom permafrost soils

Nitrate (NO₃^–) export coupled with high inorganic nitrogen (N) concentrations in Alaskan streams suggests that N cycles of permafrost‐influenced ecosystems are more open than expected for N‐limited ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that soil thaw depth governs inorganic N retention and removal in soils due to vertical patterns in the dominant N transformation pathways. Using an in situ, push–pull method, we estimated rates of inorganic N uptake and denitrification during snow melt, summer, and autumn, as depth of soil–stream flowpaths increased in the valley bottom of an arctic and a boreal catchment. Net NO₃^– uptake declined sharply from snow melt to summer and decreased as a nonlinear function of thaw depth. Peak denitrification rate occurred during snow melt at the arctic site, in summer at the boreal site, and declined as a nonlinear function of thaw depth across both sites. Seasonal patterns in ammonium (NH₄⁺) uptake were not significant, but low rates during the peak growing season suggest uptake that is balanced by mineralization. Despite rapid rates of hydrologic transport during snow melt runoff, rates of uptake and removal of inorganic N tended to exceed water residence time during snow melt, indicating potential for retention of N in valley bottom soils when flowpaths are shallow. Decreased reaction rates relative to water residence time in subsequent seasons suggest greater export of inorganic N as the soil–stream flowpath deepens due to thawing soils. Using seasonal thaw as a proxy for longer term deepening of the thaw layer caused by climate warming and permafrost degradation, these results suggest increasing potential for export of inorganic N from permafrost‐influenced soils to streams.     

Effects of seasonal snow on the growing season of temperate vegetation in China

Variations in seasonal snowfall regulate regional and global climatic systems and vegetation growth by changing energy budgets of the lower atmosphere and land surface. We investigated the effects of snow on the start of growing season (SGS) of temperate vegetation in China. Across the entire temperate region in China, the winter snow depth increased at a rate of 0.15 cm yr^?1 (P = 0.07) during the period 1982–1998, and decreased at a rate of 0.36 cm yr^?1 (P = 0.09) during the period 1998–2005. Correspondingly, the SGS advanced at a rate of 0.68 day yr^?1 (P < 0.01) during 1982–1998, and delayed at a rate of 2.13 day yr^?1 (P = 0.07) during 1998–2005, against a warming trend throughout the entire study period of 1982–2005. Spring air temperature strongly regulated the SGS of both deciduous broad‐leaf and coniferous forests, whereas the winter snow had a greater impact on the SGS of grassland and shrubs. Snow depth variation combined with air temperature contributed to the variability in the SGS of grassland and shrubs, as snow acted as an insulator and modulated the underground thermal conditions. In addition, differences were seen between the impacts of winter snow depth and spring snow depth on the SGS; as snow depths increased, the effect associated went from delaying SGS to advancing SGS. The observed thresholds for these effects were snow depths of 6.8 cm (winter) and 4.0 cm (spring). The results of this study suggest that the response of the vegetation's SGS to seasonal snow change may be attributed to the coupling effects of air temperature and snow depth associated with the underground thermal conditions.     

Impacts of long-term snow climate change on a high-elevation cold desert shrubland, California, USA

Ecological responses to 50-year old manipulations of snow depth and melt timing were assessed using snow fences arrayed across 50 km of a shrub–conifer landscape mosaic in eastern California, USA. We compared how increased, decreased, and ambient snow depth affected patterns of vegetation community composition, fire fuel accumulation, and annual tree ring growth. We also tested the effect of snow depth on soil carbon storage based on total C content under the two co-dominant shrub species (Artemisia tridentata and Purshia tridentata) in comparison with open, intershrub sites. Increased snow depth reduced the cover of the N-fixing shrub P. tridentata but not the water-redistributing shrub A. tridentata. Annual ring growth was greater on +snow plots and lower on ?snow plots for the conifer Pinus jeffreyi but not for Pinus contorta. Graminoid cover and aboveground biomass indicated higher fire fuel accumulation where snow depth was increased. Dead shrub stem biomass was greater regardless of whether snow depth was increased or decreased. Results demonstrate community shifts, altered tree growth, feedbacks on carbon storage, and altered fire fuel accumulation as a result of changes in snow depth and melt timing for this high-elevation, snow-dominated ecotone under future climate scenarios that envision increased or decreased snow depth.     

Association of ESR1 and C6orf97 gene polymorphism with osteoporosis in postmenopausal women

The estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) and Chromosome 6 Open Reading Frame 97 (C6orf97) gene polymorphisms were earlier reported to be associated with osteoporosis in the European cohort. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) with bone mineral density (BMD), fracture, vertebral fracture, bone turnover or 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] in 1,753 randomly selected postmenopausal women in China. Vertebral fracture, BMD of lumbar spine (2–4), femoral neck and total hip were measured respectively. Serum N-terminal procollagen of type 1 collagen (P1NP), β-isomerized type I collagen C-telopeptide breakdown products (β-CTX) and 25(OH)D3 were also determined. Binary logistic regression revealed significant associations between fracture risk with rs1999805 (P = 0.041, OR 1.633, 95 %CI 1.020–2.616) and rs6929137 (P = 0.005, OR 1.932, 95 %CI 1.226–3.045) in recessive model. Significant association was also observed between vertebral fracture risk and rs1038304 (P = 0.039, OR 0.549, 95 %CI 0.311–0.969) in recessive model. Liner regression analyses showed that only the CC group of rs4870044 was significantly associated with total hip in dominant model (P = 0.034). Our findings suggest that ESR1 and C6orf97 gene polymorphism is associated with fracture and vertebral fracture risk in Chinese postmenopausal women.     

Ecosystem CO2 production during winter in a Swedish subarctic region: the relative importance of climate and vegetation type

General circulation models consistently predict that regional warming will be most rapid in the Arctic, that this warming will be predominantly in the winter season, and that it will often be accompanied by increasing snowfall. Paradoxically, despite the strong cold season emphasis in these predictions, we know relatively little about the plot and landscape‐level controls on tundra biogeochemical cycling in wintertime as compared to summertime. We investigated the relative influence of vegetation type and climate on CO₂ production rates and total wintertime CO₂ release in the Scandinavian subarctic. Ecosystem respiration rates and a wide range of associated environmental and substrate pool size variables were measured in the two most common vegetation types of the region (birch understorey and heath tundra) at four paired sites along a 50 km transect through a strong snow depth gradient in northern Sweden. Both climate and vegetation type were strong interactive controls on ecosystem CO₂ production rates during winter. Of all variables tested, soil temperature explained by far the largest amount of variation in respiration rates (41–75%). Our results indicate that vegetation type only exerted an influence on respiration when snow depth was below a certain threshold (～1 m). Thus, tall vegetation that enhanced snow accumulation within that threshold resulted in more effective thermal insulation from severe air temperatures, thereby significantly increasing respiratory activity. At the end of winter, within several days of snowmelt, gross ecosystem photosynthesis rates were of a similar magnitude to ecosystem respiration, resulting in significant net carbon gain in some instances. Finally, climate and vegetation type were also strong interactive controls on total wintertime respiration, suggesting that spatial variations in maximum snowdepth may be a primary determinant of regional patterns of wintertime CO₂ release. Together, our results have important implications for predictions of how the distribution of tundra vegetation types and the carbon balances of arctic ecosystems will respond to climate change during winter because they indicate a threshold (～1 m) above which there would be little effect of increased snow accumulation on wintertime biogeochemical cycling.     

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic–climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west‐to‐east) across the Pacific‐North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041–2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east–west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns.     

Lagged effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (Homoptera) abundance and survival

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large‐scale pattern of climate variability that has been shown to have important ecological effects on a wide spectrum of taxa. Studies on terrestrial invertebrates are, however, lacking. We studied climate‐connected causes of changes in population sizes in island populations of the spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (L.) (Homoptera). Three populations living in meadows on small Baltic Sea islands were investigated during the years 1970–2005 in Tvärminne archipelago, southern Finland. A separate analysis was done on the effects of NAO and local climate variables on spittlebug survival in 1969–1978, for which survival data existed for two islands. We studied survival at two stages of the life cycle: growth rate from females to next year's instars (probably mostly related to overwintering egg survival), and survival from third instar stage to adult. The latter is connected to mortality caused by desiccation of plants and spittle masses. Higher winter NAO values were consistently associated with smaller population sizes on all three islands. Local climate variables entering the most parsimonious autoregressive models of population abundance were April and May mean temperature, May precipitation, an index of May humidity, and mean temperature of the coldest month of the previous winter. High winter NAO values had a clear negative effect on late instar survival in 1969–1978. Even May–June humidity and mean temperature of the coldest month were associated with late instar survival. The climate variables studied (including NAO) had no effect on the growth rate from females to next year's instars. NAO probably affected the populations primarily in late spring. Cold and snowy winters contribute to later snow melt and greater spring humidity in the meadows. We show that winter NAO has a considerable lagged effect on April and May temperature; even this second lagged effect contributes to differences in humidity. The lagged effect of the winter NAO to spring temperatures covers a large area in northern Europe and has been relatively stationary for 100 years at least in the Baltic area.     

Alzheimer’s Disease is an Important Risk Factor of Fractures: a Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies

The risk of fracture in individuals with Alzheimer’s disease had not been fully quantified. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was performed to estimate the impact of Alzheimer’s disease on risk of fractures. Pubmed and Embase were searched for eligible cohort studies assessing the association between Alzheimer’s disease and risk of fractures. The overall relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated using a random-effects model to evaluate the association. Six cohort studies with a total of 137,986 participants were included into the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of a total of six studies showed that Alzheimer’s disease was significantly associated with two-fold increased risk of fractures (RR?=?2.18, 95 % CI 1.64–2.90, P?<?0.001; I ²?=?91.4 %). Meta-regression analysis showed that type of fractures was a source of heterogeneity (P?=?0.003). Meta-analysis of five studies on hip fracture showed that Alzheimer’s disease was significantly associated with 2.5-fold increased risk of hip fracture (RR?=?2.52, 95 % CI 2.26–2.81, P?<?0.001; I ²?=?25.2 %). There was no risk of publication bias observed in the funnel plot. There is strong evidence that Alzheimer’s disease is a risk factor of hip fracture.     

Deepened snow increases late thaw biogeochemical pulses in mesic low arctic tundra

Pulses of plant-available nutrients to the soil solution are expected to occur during the dynamic winter–spring transition in arctic tundra. Our aims were to quantify the magnitude of these potential nutrient pulses, to understand the sensitivity of these pulses to winter conditions, and to characterize and integrate the environmental and biogeochemical dynamics of this period. To test the hypotheses that snow depth, temperature and soil water—and not snow nutrient content—are important controls on winter and spring biogeochemistry, we sampled soil from under ambient and deepened snow every 3 days from late winter to spring, in addition to the snowpack at the start of thaw. Soil and microbial biogeochemical dynamics were divided into distinct phases that correlated with steps in soil temperature and soil water. Soil solution and microbial pools of C, N and P fluctuated with strong peaks and declines throughout the thaw, especially under deepened snow. Snowpack nutrient accumulation was negligible relative to these biogeochemical peaks. All nutrient and microbial peaks declined simultaneously at the end of snowmelt and so this decline was delayed by 15 days under deepened snow. The timing of these nutrient pulses is critical for plant species nutrient availability and landscape nutrient budgets. This detailed and statistically-based characterisation of the winter–spring transition in terms of environmental and biogeochemical variables should provide a useful foundation for future biogeochemical process-based studies of thaw, and indicate that spring thaw and possibly growing season biogeochemical dynamics are sensitive to present and future variability in winter snow depth.     

Radiation transfer and heat budget during the ice season in Lake Pääjärvi, Finland

Lake Pääjärvi, a boreal Finnish lake, was investigated in winter for weather conditions, structure and thickness of ice and snow, solar radiation, and under-ice current and temperature. Heat budget of Lake Pääjärvi in January–March was governed by terrestrial radiation losses of 20–35 W m^?2 recompensed by ice growth of 0.5–1.0 cm day^?1. In April, snow melted, albedo decreased from 0.8 to <0.1, and the mean ice melt rate was 1.5 cm day^?1. Internal melting and surface melting were about equal. The mean turbulent heat loss was small. The heat flux from the water to ice was about 5 W m^?2 in winter, increasing to 12 W m^?2 in the melting season. The light attenuation coefficient was 1.1 m^?1 for the congelation ice (black ice) in winter, compared with 1.5 m^?1 for the lake water, and it was up to 3 m^?1 for candled congelation ice in spring, and about 10 m^?1 for superimposed ice (white ice) and snow. Gas bubbles were the main factor that reduced the transparency of ice. The radiation penetrating the ice heated the water body causing convective currents and horizontal heat transfer. This increased the temperature of the water body to about 3°C before the ice break-up. After the snow had melted, the euphotic depth (the depth of 1% surface irradiance) was estimated as 2.0 m, only two-thirds that in summer.     

Decomposition of old organic matter as a result of deeper active layers in a snow depth manipulation experiment

A snow addition experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra at Toolik Lake, Alaska, increased winter snow depths 2–3 m, and resulted in a doubling of the summer active layer depth. We used radiocarbon (?¹⁴C) to (1) determine the age of C respired in the deep soils under control and deepened active layer conditions (deep snow drifts), and (2) to determine the impact of increased snow and permafrost thawing on surface CO₂ efflux by partitioning respiration into autotrophic and heterotrophic components. ?¹⁴C signatures of surface respiration were higher in the deep snow areas, reflecting a decrease in the proportion of autotrophic respiration. The radiocarbon age of soil pore CO₂ sampled near the maximum mid-July thaw depth was approximately 1,000 years in deep snow treatment plots (45–55 cm thaw depth), while CO₂ from the ambient snow areas was ~100 years old (30-cm thaw depth). Heterotrophic respiration ?¹⁴C signatures from incubations were similar between the two snow depths for the organic horizon and were extremely variable in the mineral horizon, resulting in no significant differences between treatments in either month. Radiocarbon ages of heterotrophically respired C ranged from <50 to 235 years BP in July mineral soil samples and from 1,525 to 8,300 years BP in August samples, suggesting that old soil C in permafrost soils may be metabolized upon thawing. In the surface fluxes, this old C signal is obscured by the organic horizon fluxes, which are significantly higher. Our results indicate that, as permafrost in tussock tundra ecosystems of arctic Alaska thaws, carbon buried up to several thousands of years ago will become an active component of the carbon cycle, potentially accelerating the rise of CO₂ in the atmosphere.     

The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008

We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.     

Change in winter snow depth and its impacts on vegetation in China

Snow on land is an important component of the global climate system, but our knowledge about the effects of its changes on vegetation are limited, particularly in temperate regions. In this study, we use daily snow depth data from 279 meteorological stations across China to investigate the distribution of winter snow depth (December–February) from 1980 to 2005 and its impact on vegetation growth, here approximated by satellite‐derived vegetation greenness index observations [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)]. The snow depth trends show strong geographical heterogeneities. An increasing trend (>0.01 cm yr^?1) in maximum and mean winter snow depth is found north of 40°N (e.g. Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, and Northwest China). A declining trend (?1) is observed south of 40°N, particularly over Central and East China. The effect of changes in snow depth on vegetation growth was examined for several ecosystem types. In deserts, mean winter snow depth is significantly and positively correlated with NDVI during both early (May and June) and mid‐growing seasons (July and August), suggesting that winter snow plays a critical role in regulating desert vegetation growth, most likely through persistent effects on soil moisture. In grasslands, there is also a significant positive correlation between winter snow depth and NDVI in the period May–June. However, in forests, shrublands, and alpine meadow and tundra, no such correlation is found. These ecosystem‐specific responses of vegetation growth to winter snow depth may be due to differences in growing environmental conditions such as temperature and rainfall.     

Winter CO2 fluxes in a sub-alpine grassland in relation to snow cover, radiation and temperature

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions were measured over a period of 3 years at the sub-alpine Swiss CARBOMONT site Rigi Seebodenalp. Here we show, that winter respiration contributes larger than expected to the annual CO₂ budget at this high altitude, rich in belowground organic carbon grassland (7–15% C by mass). Furthermore the contribution of winter emissions to the annual CO₂ budget is highly dependent on the definition of “winter” itself. Cumulative winter respiration determined over a 6 month period from 15th of October until 15th of April contributed 23.3 ± 2.4 and 6.0 ± 0.3% to the annual respiration during the years under observation, respectively. The insulation effect of snow and a lowering of the freezing point caused by high concentrations of soil organic solutes prevented the soil from freezing. These conditions favored higher soil temperatures resulting in relatively high respiratory losses. The duration of snow cover and micrometeorological conditions determining the photosynthetic activity of the vegetation during snow-free periods influenced the size and the variability of the winter CO₂ fluxes. Seasonal values are strongly influenced by the days at the end and the beginning of the defined winter period, caused by large variations in length of periods with air temperatures below freezing. Losses of CO₂ from the snow-covered soil were highest in winter 2003/2004. These high losses were partially explained by higher temperatures in the topsoil, caused by higher air temperatures just before snowfall. Thus, losses are not a consequence of higher soil temperatures registered during the summer heat wave 2003. However, water stress in summer 2003 might have caused an increment in dead organic matter in the soil providing additional substrate for microbial respiration in the following winter. Although considerable day-to-day fluctuations in snow effluxes were recorded, no conclusive and generally valid relationship could be found between CO₂ losses from the snow pack and snow depth, rate of snow melt, wind speed or air pressure. This suggests that time lags and hysteresis effects may be more important for understanding winter respiration than concurrent environmental conditions in most ecosystems of comparable type.     

Snow depth does not affect recruitment in a low-density population of boreal woodland caribou (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rangifer tarandus caribou</Emphasis>)

Winter snow depth may be an important driver of annual variability in recruitment of ungulate calves, and low calf recruitment has been implicated as a factor in declining boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. We used 11 consecutive years (2006–2016) of aerial survey data to document calf recruitment in a low-density population of boreal woodland caribou in the Northwest Territories, Canada. We measured snow depth in winter and tested two hypotheses: (1) that calf recruitment was lower in winters with greater snow depth and (2) that calf recruitment was lower following winters with greater snow depth (1-year time lag). Recruitment, the number of calves/adult female in March, ranged twofold from 0.23 to 0.45, and snow depth also ranged twofold from 41 to 85 cm. Yet, we found no support for the hypothesis that late-winter snow depth in the current or previous year was inversely related to calf recruitment.     

Dendroclimatological investigation of mainland Australia's only alpine conifer,Podocarpus lawrencei Hook.f

Developing an understanding of the impact of climate on Australia's alpine flora is critical in anticipating the impacts of climate change. The dendroclimatological analysis of the Australian mainland's only alpine conifer, Podocarpus lawrencei Hook.f., may have particular significance in this regard. Unfortunately, eccentric tree-ring widths and frequent ring wedging have previously prevented dendroclimatic investigation of the species using core samples. In this study, we overcome this limitation by using full stem cross-sections collected from individuals killed during wildfire in 2003. Despite this advantage, ring wedging and poor circuit uniformity meant that crossdating was successful for portions or complete sections of only 56% of samples. Nevertheless, we constructed a crossdated chronology spanning 114-years (1888–2001) – the first for P. lawrencei. Climatological analysis revealed significant positive correlations with air temperature during spring of the growing season and significant negative correlations with monthly and seasonal snow variables as well as spring precipitation. Further analyses using 50-year moving windows reveal that responses to minimum air temperature and precipitation are unstable and periodically non-significant. Nevertheless, whilst correlation with mean maximum temperature during October and November (spring) of the growing season as well as the seasonal integration of snow cover exhibits variability throughout the analysis period, this variability appears to be independent of trends in both mean temperature and snow cover. We conclude, given the species longevity, its sensitivity to climate as well as the availability of sample material throughout the Australian Alps, that P. lawrencei holds a hitherto unrealised potential for climate reconstruction in south-east Australia. Further dendrochronological investigation of the species is currently underway throughout the Australian Alps to exploit this potential.     

Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some,but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes.     

Best environmental predictors of breeding phenology differ with elevation in a common woodland bird species

Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt‐out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg‐laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011–2019) of data on egg‐laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt‐out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont‐Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg‐laying date, while at high‐altitude snow melt‐out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg‐laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events.     

Effects of climate and snow depth on Bromus tectorum population dynamics at high elevation

Invasive plants are thought to be especially capable of range shifts or expansion in response to climate change due to high dispersal and colonization abilities. Although highly invasive throughout the Intermountain West, the presence and impact of the grass Bromus tectorum has been limited at higher elevations in the eastern Sierra Nevada, potentially due to extreme wintertime conditions. However, climate models project an upward elevational shift of climate regimes in the Sierra Nevada that could favor B. tectorum expansion. This research specifically examined the effects of experimental snow depth manipulations and interannual climate variability over 5 years on B. tectorum populations at high elevation (2,175 m). Experimentally-increased snow depth had an effect on phenology and biomass, but no effect on individual fecundity. Instead an experimentally-increased snowpack inhibited population growth in 1 year by reducing seedling emergence and early survival. A similar negative effect of increased snow was observed 2 years later. However, a strong negative effect on B. tectorum was also associated with a naturally low-snow winter, when seedling emergence was reduced by 86%. Across 5 years, winters with greater snow cover and a slower accumulation of degree-days coincided with higher B. tectorum seedling density and population growth. Thus, we observed negative effects associated with both experimentally-increased and naturally-decreased snowpacks. It is likely that the effect of snow at high elevation is nonlinear and differs from lower elevations where wintertime germination can be favorable. Additionally, we observed a doubling of population size in 1 year, which is alarming at this elevation.