The signature of scrapie: differences in the PrP genotype profile of scrapie-affected and scrapie-free UK sheep flocks.

The amino-acid sequence of the PrP protein plays an important role in determining whether sheep are susceptible to scrapie. Although the genetics of scrapie susceptibility are now well understood, there have been few studies of the PrP gene at the population level, especially in commercially farmed sheep. Here we describe the PrP genetic profiles of the breeding stock of four UK sheep flocks, comprising nearly 650 animals in total. Two flocks had been scrapie affected for about eight years and two were scrapie free. Scrapie-resistant PrP genotypes predominated in all flocks but highly susceptible genotypes were present in each case. The distribution of PrP genotypes was similar in the scrapie-affected and scrapie-free flocks. The former, however, showed a slight but significant skew towards more susceptible genotypes despite their previous losses of susceptible sheep. Surprisingly, this skew was apparent in younger, but not older, sheep. We suggest that these patterns may occur if sheep flocks destined to become scrapie affected are predisposed by a genetic profile skewed towards susceptibility. The age structure of the scrapie-affected flocks suggests that the number of losses attributable directly or indirectly to scrapie considerably exceeds that recognized by the farmers, and also that significant losses may occur even in sheep of a moderately susceptible genotype. Similar patterns were not detected in the scrapie-free flocks, indicating that these losses are associated with scrapie infection as well as genotype.     

Scrapie prevalence in sheep of susceptible genotype is declining in a population subject to breeding for resistance

Background  

Susceptibility of sheep to scrapie infection is known to be modulated by the PrP genotype of the animal. In the Netherlands an ambitious scrapie control programme was started in 1998, based on genetic selection of animals for breeding. From 2002 onwards EU regulations required intensive active scrapie surveillance as well as certain control measures in affected flocks.     

Quantitative estimation of genetic risk for atypical scrapie in French sheep and potential consequences of the current breeding programme for resistance to scrapie on the risk of atypical scrapie

Background

Since 2002, active surveillance programmes have detected numerous atypical scrapie (AS) and classical scrapie cases (CS) in French sheep with almost all the PrP genotypes. The aim of this study was 1) to quantify the genetic risk of AS in French sheep and to compare it with the risk of CS, 2) to quantify the risk of AS associated with the increase of the ARR allele frequency as a result of the current genetic breeding programme against CS.

Methods

We obtained genotypes at codons 136, 141, 154 and 171 of the PRNP gene for representative samples of 248 AS and 245 CS cases. We used a random sample of 3,317 scrapie negative animals genotyped at codons 136, 154 and 171 and we made inferences on the position 141 by multiple imputations, using external data. To estimate the risk associated with PrP genotypes, we fitted multivariate logistic regression models and we estimated the prevalence of AS for the different genotypes. Then, we used the risk of AS estimated for the ALRR-ALRR genotype to analyse the risk of detecting an AS case in a flock homogenous for this genotype.

Results

Genotypes most at risk for AS were those including an AFRQ or ALHQ allele while genotypes including a VLRQ allele were less commonly associated with AS. Compared to ALRQ-ALRQ, the ALRR-ALRR genotype was significantly at risk for AS and was very significantly protective for CS. The prevalence of AS among ALRR-ALRR animals was 0.6‰ and was not different from the prevalence in the general population.

Conclusion

In conclusion, further selection of ALRR-ALRR animals will not result in an overall increase of AS prevalence in the French sheep population although this genotype is clearly susceptible to AS. However the probability of detecting AS cases in flocks participating in genetic breeding programme against CS should be considered.     

Review: A review on classical and atypical scrapie in caprine: Prion protein gene polymorphisms and their role in the disease

Scrapie is a naturally occurring transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep and goat. It has been known for ~250 years and is characterised by the accumulation of an abnormal isoform of a host-encoded prion protein that leads to progressive neurodegeneration and death. Scrapie is recognised in two forms, classical and atypical scrapie. The susceptibility to both types of scrapie is influenced by polymorphisms of the prion protein gene (PRNP). Sheep susceptibility or resistance to classical scrapie is strongly regulated by the polymorphisms at codons 136, 154 and 171 of the PRNP. The genetic role in atypical scrapie in sheep has been defined by polymorphisms at codons 141, 154 and 171, which are associated with different degrees of risk in the occurrence of the ovine disease. Progress has been achieved in the prevention of scrapie in sheep due to efficient genetic breeding programmes based on eradication and control of the disease. In Europe, the success of these programmes has been verified by applying eradication and genetic selection plans. In general terms, the ovine selection plans aim to eliminate and reduce the susceptible allele and to enrich the resistant allele ARR. During outbreaks all susceptible animals are slaughtered, only ARR/ARR resistant rams and sheep and semi-resistant females are preserved. In the occurrence of scrapie positive goats a complete cull of the flock (stamping out) is performed with great economic loss and severe risk of extinction for the endangered breeds. The ability to select scrapie-resistant animals allows to define new breeding strategies aimed to boost genetic progress while reducing costs during scrapie outbreaks. Allelic variants of PRNP can be protective for caprine scrapie, and the knowledge of their distribution in goats has become very important. Over the past few years, the integration of genetic information on goat populations could be used to make selection decisions, commonly referred to as genetic selection. The objective of this review was to summarise the main findings of polymorphisms of the caprine prion protein (PrP) gene and to discuss the possible application of goat breeding schemes integrating genetic selection, with their relative advantages and limitations.     

Screening for polymorphism at the prion protein (PrP) locus (PRNP) in Awassi and Assaf populations in Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan

Screening for polymorphism at the prion protein (PrP) locus (PRNP) was carried out in 33 flocks of Local Awassi (LA) sheep in Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Jordan. In addition, PRNP genotyping was carried out in two flocks of Improved Awassi (IA) in Israel and the PA and in 11 flocks of Assaf sheep in Israel. Most of the rams present in the flocks at the time of the survey 328, 44 and 298 rams from the LA, IA and Assaf breeds, respectively, were genotyped. The ARQ allele was found to be predominant in all three breeds with average frequencies of 0.74, 0.78 and 0.86 for the LA, IA and Assaf breeds, respectively. Frequencies of the desirable ARR allele in these breeds were 0.10, 0.05 and 0.06, respectively. ARH, AHQ and ARK alleles were identified at low/absent frequencies. Only one Assaf ewe carried the undesirable V allele at codon 136. A few scrapie outbreaks have been documented in the past in the region. To increase ARR allele frequencies in the Awassi and Assaf populations, distribution of homozygous ARR/ARR rams is recommended.     

Efficiency of selection for body weight in a cooperative village breeding program of Menz sheep under smallholder farming system

We evaluated the efficiency of selection for body weight in a cooperative village breeding program for Menz sheep of Ethiopia under smallholder farming system. The design of the program involved organizing villagers in a cooperative breeding group to implement selective breeding of their sheep. The program was jump-started through a one-time provision of elite rams from a central nucleus flock, but subsequent replacement rams were selected from within the village flocks. We also evaluated body weight trends in a village where cooperative breeding was not implemented and individual farmers managed their flocks under traditional breeding practices. Under traditional breeding practices, genetic progress over 8 years either stagnated or declined in all the weights recorded. In the cooperative villages, selection differentials of 2.44 and 2.45 kg were achieved in 2010 and 2011 selection seasons, respectively. Birth weight, 3-month weight and 6-month weight increased, respectively, by 0.49, 2.29 and 2.46 kg in the third-generation lambs over the base generation. Improved rams supplied from the central nucleus flock gave an initial genetic lift of 14.4% in the 6-month weight. This was higher than the gain achieved from selection in the village flocks, which was 5.2%. Our results showed that village-based genetic improvement in body weights under smallholder conditions could be feasible if appropriate designs are adopted and that commencing with elite central nucleus rams help jump-start village-based programs.     

Congruence between selection on breeding values and farmers' selection criteria in sheep breeding under conventional nucleus breeding schemes

Designing breeding schemes suitable for smallholder livestock production systems in developing regions has hitherto been a challenge. The suggested schemes either do not address farmers' breeding goals (centralized station-based nucleus schemes) or yield slow genetic progress (village-based schemes). A new breeding scheme that integrates the merits of previously suggested schemes has been designed for Menz sheep improvement in Ethiopia. It involves selection based on breeding values in nucleus flocks to produce elite rams, a one-time only provision of improved rams to villagers and a follow-up village-based selection to sustain genetic progress in village flocks. Here, we assessed whether conventional selection of breeding rams based on breeding values for production traits, which is the practice in station-based nucleus flocks, meets farmers' breeding objectives. We also elicited determinants of farmers' ram choice. Low but significant correlations were found between rankings of rams based on farmers' selection criteria, estimated breeding values (EBV) and body weight (BW). Appearance traits (such as color and horn) and meat production traits (BW and linear size traits) significantly determined farmers' breeding ram choice. The results imply that conventional selection criteria based solely on EBV for production traits do not address farmers' trait preferences fully, but only partially. Thus, a two-stage selection procedure involving selection on breeding values in nucleus centers followed by farmers' selection among top- ranking candidate rams is recommended. This approach accommodates farmers' preferences and speeds up genetic progress in village-based selection. The Menz sheep scheme could be applied elsewhere with similar situations to transform conventional station-based nucleus breeding activities into participatory breeding programs.     

Characterization of the PRNP gene locus in Chios dairy sheep and its association with milk production and reproduction traits

The objective of this study was to examine the prion protein gene locus (PRNP) in Chios sheep. PRNP is linked with scrapie resistance in small ruminants. Here, its impact on milk production (test-day and total lactation yield) and reproduction (age at first lambing, conception rate at first service, and prolificacy) was assessed. Genotyping at codons 136, 154 and 171 (classical scrapie) and 141 (atypical scrapie) was performed using DNA from milk somatic cells and PCR-RFLP analysis. A total of 1013 Chios ewes raised in 23 flocks were used. This constituted a random sample of the national breeding population. A total of 15 genotypes and 6 alleles linked to codons 136, 154 and 171 were detected. All animals were homozygous for the leucine allele at codon 141. Linear mixed models were used to assess the impact of PRNP genotypes and alleles on milk production and reproduction traits. The TRQ allele, whose association with such traits was assessed for the first time, had an adverse effect on age at first lambing. All other PRNP alleles, including ARR, which is associated with increased resistance to classical scrapie, had no significant effect on the traits studied. No significant associations of the PRNP genotypes with production and reproduction traits were observed. It was concluded that selection for scrapie-resistant sheep is not expected to affect the ongoing breeding programme that aims to enhance the milk yield and reproduction of the Chios breed.     

Scrapie transmission in Britain: a recipe for a mathematical model

Responses to an anonymous postal survey concerning scrapie are analysed. Risk factors associated with farms that have had scrapie are identified as size, geographical region, lambing practices and holding of certain breeds. Further analysis of farms that have scrapie only in bought-in animals reveals that such farms tend to breed a smaller proportion of their replacement animals than farms without scrapie. Farms that have had scrapie in home-bred animals have attributes associated with breeding many animals: large numbers of rams bought, few ewes bought, and many animals that are home-bred. The demography of British sheep farms as described by size, breeds, purchasing behaviour, age structure and proportion of animals that are home-bred is summarized. British farms with scrapie reveal certain special features: they have more sheep that are found dead, more elderly ewes and more cases of scab.     

The Limits of Test-Based Scrapie Eradication Programs in Goats

Small ruminant post-mortem testing programs were initially designed for monitoring the prevalence of prion disease. They are now considered as a potential alternative to genetic selection for eradicating/controlling classical scrapie at population level. If such policy should be implemented, its success would be crucially dependent on the efficiency of the surveillance system used to identify infected flocks. In this study, we first determined the performance of post-mortem classical scrapie detection in eight naturally affected goat herds (total n = 1961 animals) according to the age at culling. These results provided us with necessary parameters to estimate, through a Monte Carlo simulation model, the performance of scrapie detection in a commercial population. According to this model, whatever the number of tests performed, post mortem surveillance will have limited success in identifying infected herds. These data support the contention that scrapie eradication programs relying solely on post mortem testing in goats will probably fail. Considering the epidemiological and pathological similarities of scrapie in sheep and goats, the efficiency of scrapie surveillance in both species is likely to be similar.     

An effective rotational mating scheme for inbreeding reduction in captive populations illustrated by the rare sheep breed Kempisch Heideschaap

Within breeds and other captive populations, the risk of high inbreeding rates and loss of diversity can be high within (small) herds or subpopulations. When exchange of animals between different subpopulations is organised according to a rotational mating scheme, inbreeding rates can be restricted. Two such schemes, a breeding circle and a maximum avoidance of inbreeding scheme, are compared. In a breeding circle, flocks are organised in a circle where each flock serves as a donor flock for another flock, and the same donor-recipient combination is used in each breeding season. In the maximum inbreeding avoidance scheme, donor-recipient combinations change each year so that the use of the same combination is postponed as long as possible. Data from the Kempisch Heideschaap were used with computer simulations to determine the long-term effects of different breeding schemes. Without exchanging rams between flocks, high inbreeding rates (>1.5% per year) occurred. Both rotational mating schemes reduced inbreeding rates to on average 0.16% per year and variation across flocks in inbreeding rates, caused by differences in flock size, almost disappeared. Inbreeding rates with maximum inbreeding avoidance were more variable than with a breeding circle. Moreover, a breeding circle is easier to implement and operate. Breeding circles are thus efficient and flexible and can also be efficient for other captive populations, such as zoo populations of endangered wild species.     

Eradication of scrapie with selective breeding: are we nearly there?

Background  

Following EU decision 2003/100/EC Member States have recently implemented sheep breeding programmes to reduce the prevalence of sheep with TSE susceptible prion genotypes. The present paper investigates the progress of the breeding programme in the Netherlands. The PrP genotype frequencies were monitored through time using two sets of random samples: one set covers the years 2005 to 2008 and is taken from national surveillance programme; the other is taken from 168 random sheep farms in 2007. The data reveal that although the level of compliance to the breeding programme has been high, the frequency of susceptible genotypes varies substantially between farms. The 168 sheep farms are a subset of 689 farms participating in a postal survey inquiring about management and breeding strategies. This survey aimed to identify how much these strategies varied between farms, in order to inform assessment of the expected future progress towards eradication of classical scrapie.     

The relationship between ram breeding capacity and flock fertility

The effect of breeding capacity of rams on flock fertility was studied by exposing each of 15 rams to 1 of 15 flocks of 200 naturally-cycling ewes for 17 days. Five of the rams were arbitrarily designated as being of high breeding capacity (mean+/-SEM = 14.7+/-0.5 services in 2 3-hour pen breeding tests); five rams were designated as being of medium capacity (7.3 +/- 0.2); and the remaining five were designated as being of low breeding capacity (1.7 +/- 0.5). Breeding capacity was shown to be positively correlated with the number of services during flock mating, to the number of ewes mated and to insemination success. Breeding capacity as measured in a pen test of shorter duration (1 hour) was shown to be similarly related to flock fertility. Further, the number of services during flock mating was also positively correlated with the number of ewes mated and impregnated, as well as to the number of fetuses conceived and to insemination success. Breeding frequency of the ram is, therefore, closely related to flock fertility, but breeding capacity, as measured in the present study, is only a moderately accurate indicator of breeding frequency.     

Implications of Conflicting Associations of the Prion Protein (PrP) Gene with Scrapie Susceptibility and Fitness on the Persistence of Scrapie

Background

Existing mathematical models for scrapie dynamics in sheep populations assume that the PrP gene is only associated with scrapie susceptibility and with no other fitness related traits. This assumption contrasts recent findings of PrP gene associations with post-natal lamb survival in scrapie free Scottish Blackface populations. Lambs with scrapie resistant genotypes were found to have significantly lower survival rates than those with susceptible genotypes. The present study aimed to investigate how these conflicting PrP gene associations may affect the dynamic patterns of PrP haplotype frequencies and disease prevalence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to explore how the associations between PrP genotype and both scrapie susceptibility and postnatal lamb mortality affect the prevalence of scrapie and the associated change in PrP gene frequencies in a closed flock of sheep. The model incorporates empirical evidence on epidemiological and biological characteristics of scrapie and on mortality rates induced by causes other than scrapie. The model results indicate that unfavorable associations of the scrapie resistant PrP haplotypes with post-natal lamb mortality, if sufficiently strong, can increase scrapie prevalence during an epidemic, and result in scrapie persisting in the population. The range of model parameters, for which such effects were observed, is realistic but relatively narrow.

Conclusions/Significance

The results of the present model suggest that for most parameter combinations an unfavourable association between PrP genotype and post-natal lamb mortality does not greatly alter the dynamics of scrapie and, hence, would not have an adverse impact on a breeding programme. There were, however, a range of scenarios, narrow, but realistic, in which such an unfavourable association resulted in an increased prevalence and in the persistence of infection. Consequently, associations between PrP genotypes and fitness traits should be taken into account when designing future models and breeding programmes.     

A centuries-long epidemic of scrapie in British sheep?

The apparent persistence of scrapie in British sheep for more than 250 years is difficult to explain. Susceptibility to scrapie is associated with particular alleles at a single locus, the PrP gene. As the only known effect of these alleles is to confer susceptibility to a fatal disease, natural selection is expected to reduce their frequency, as has been observed in practice during scrapie outbreaks in single sheep flocks. Susceptibility alleles, and hence scrapie itself, are therefore expected to become rare, yet the disease remains widespread. We suggest that the paradox of scrapie's persistence can be explained by the exceptionally long time-scales inherent in the epidemiology of the disease. It is proposed that scrapie should be regarded as epidemic in British sheep but, unlike more familiar epidemics, which have time-scales of months or years, the scrapie epidemic has a time-scale of centuries. This interpretation implies that scrapie should eventually disappear from the sheep population.     

Molecular analysis of a promiscuous, fluctuating mating system

The Soay sheep population of St. Kilda fluctuates widely in population size and sex ratio, so diat the level of male-male competition for mates varies from one rut to the next. In this paper we investigate variation in individual male breeding success in relation to age and population size at the rut, and its outcome in terms of lifetime breeding success. Since both sexes are promiscuous, and census-based behavioural data do not predict paternity, we conducted the whole analysis on breeding success derived by molecular techniques. We assumed that every male living in our study area during the rut (N= 68–294 in different years) was a candidate father for each subsequent lamb, and used the parentage inference software CERVUS 1.0, applied to up to 17 allozyme and microsatellite loci, to infer paternity at 95% and 80% confidence. Using 945 paternities assigned at 80% confidence, we show that juvenile rams (aged 7 months) and yearling rams (aged 19 months) regularly obtained paternities and that mean individual breeding success varied inversely with levels of competition in the rut for all age classes of ram. The proportion of young (juvenile and yearling) and adult rams gaining one or more paternities showed similar variation with population size, but the sibship size sired by young and adult breeders showed different patterns: adult rams sired larger sibships at low population size, while the size of sibships sired by young rams was small across all population sizes. Variable breeding success by young rams approximately halved the estimated coefficient of variation in lifetime breeding success of Soay rams.     

The prevalence of atypical scrapie in sheep from positive flocks is not higher than in the general sheep population in 11 European countries

Background

During the last decade, active surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants has been intensive in Europe. In many countries this has led to the detection of cases of atypical scrapie which, unlike classical scrapie, might not be contagious. EU legislation requires, that following detection of a scrapie case, control measures including further testing take place in affected flocks, including the culling of genotype susceptible to classical scrapie. This might result in the detection of additional cases. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of additional cases in flocks affected by atypical scrapie using surveillance data collected in Europe in order to ascertain whether atypical scrapie, is contagious.

Results

Questionnaires were used to collect, at national level, the results of active surveillance and testing associated with flock outbreaks in 12 European countries. The mean prevalence of atypical scrapie was 5.5 (5.0-6.0) cases per ten thousand in abattoir surveillance and 8.1 (7.3-9.0) cases per ten thousand in fallen stock. By using meta-analysis, on 11 out of the 12 countries, we found that the probability of detecting additional cases of atypical scrapie in positive flocks was similar to the probability observed in animals slaughtered for human consumption (odds ratio, OR = 1.07, CI_95%: 0.70-1.63) or among fallen stock (OR = 0.78, CI_95%: 0.51-1.2). In contrast, when comparing the two scrapie types, the probability of detecting additional cases in classical scrapie positive flocks was significantly higher than the probability of detecting additional cases in atypical scrapie positive flocks (OR = 32.4, CI_95%: 20.7-50.7).

Conclusions

These results suggest that atypical scrapie is not contagious or has a very low transmissibility under natural conditions compared with classical scrapie. Furthermore this study stressed the importance of standardised data collection to make good use of the analyses undertaken by European countries in their efforts to control atypical and classical scrapie.     

Frequencies of PrP gene haplotypes in British sheep flocks and the implications for breeding programmes

AIMS: To analyse the frequencies of prion (PrP) gene haplotypes in UK sheep flocks and evaluate their relevance to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) and TSE resistance breeding programmes in sheep. METHODS AND RESULTS: Genomic DNA isolated from sheep blood was PCR amplified for the coding region of the PrP gene and then sequenced. This study has analysed the sequence of PrP between codons 110 and 245 in 6287 ARQ haplotypes revealing a total of eight variant sequences, which represent a higher than expected 41% of all ARQ haplotypes. The additional PrP gene dimorphisms were M112T, L141F, M137T, H143R, H151C, P168L, Q175E and P241S. CONCLUSION: The results do not suggest a correlation between the occurrence of a specific ARQ haplotype and the scrapie disease status of a flock. The ARQ haplotype variability appears to be different in the UK sheep flocks compared with sheep flocks from outside the UK. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Additional PrP dimorphisms may impact on the methodologies used for standard PrP genotyping in sheep breeding programmes. Some of these polymorphisms were found with significant frequencies in the UK sheep flocks and should therefore be considered in breeding programmes.     

An economic evaluation of preclinical testing strategies compared to the compulsory scrapie flock scheme in the control of classical scrapie

Cost-benefit is rarely combined with nonlinear dynamic models when evaluating control options for infectious diseases. The current strategy for scrapie in Great Britain requires that all genetically susceptible livestock in affected flocks be culled (Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme or CSFS). However, this results in the removal of many healthy sheep, and a recently developed pre-clinical test for scrapie now offers a strategy based on disease detection. We explore the flock level cost-effectiveness of scrapie control using a deterministic transmission model and industry estimates of costs associated with genotype testing, pre-clinical tests and the value of a sheep culled. Benefit was measured in terms of the reduction in the number of infected sheep sold on, compared to a baseline strategy of doing nothing, using Incremental Cost Effectiveness analysis to compare across strategies. As market data was not available for pre-clinical testing, a threshold analysis was used to set a unit-cost giving equal costs for CSFS and multiple pre-clinical testing (MT, one test each year for three consecutive years). Assuming a 40% within-flock proportion of susceptible genotypes and a test sensitivity of 90%, a single test (ST) was cheaper but less effective than either the CSFS or MT strategies (30 infected-sales-averted over the lifetime of the average epidemic). The MT strategy was slightly less effective than the CSFS and would be a dominated strategy unless preclinical testing was cheaper than the threshold price of ￡6.28, but may be appropriate for flocks with particularly valuable livestock. Though the ST is not currently recommended, the proportion of susceptible genotypes in the national flock is likely to continue to decrease; this may eventually make it a cost-effective alternative to the MT or CSFS.     

Epidemiological Characteristics of Classical Scrapie Outbreaks in 30 Sheep Flocks in the United Kingdom

Background

Most previous analyses of scrapie outbreaks have focused on flocks run by research institutes, which may not reflect the field situation. Within this study, we attempt to rectify this deficit by describing the epidemiological characteristics of 30 sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, and by exploring possible underlying causes of variation in the characteristics between flocks, including flock-level prion protein (PrP) genotype profile. In total, the study involved PrP genotype data for nearly 8600 animals and over 400 scrapie cases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We found that most scrapie cases were restricted to just two PrP genotypes (ARQ/VRQ and VRQ/VRQ), though two flocks had markedly different affected genotypes, despite having similar underlying genotype profiles to other flocks of the same breed; we identified differences amongst flocks in the age of cases of certain PrP genotypes; we found that the age-at-onset of clinical signs depended on peak incidence and flock type; we found evidence that purchasing infected animals is an important means of introducing scrapie to a flock; we found some evidence that flock-level PrP genotype profile and flock size account for variation in outbreak characteristics; identified seasonality in cases associated with lambing time in certain flocks; and we identified one case that was homozygous for phenylalanine at codon 141, a polymorphism associated with a very high risk of atypical scrapie, and 28 cases that were heterozygous at this codon.

Conclusions/Significance

This paper presents the largest study to date on commercially-run sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, involving 30 study flocks, more than 400 scrapie cases and over 8500 PrP genotypes. We show that some of the observed variation in epidemiological characteristics between farms is related to differences in their PrP genotype profile; although much remains unexplained and may instead be attributed to the stochastic nature of scrapie dynamics.