单季晚稻褐飞虱发生程度综合客观预报模型

以上海地区单季晚稻褐飞虱Nilaparvatalugens(St l)发生程度为研究对象 ,用地面气象因子、5 0 0hPa高空环流因子和北太平洋海温场因子 ,在挑选了相关系数较高且稳定性又好的预报因子后 ,在逐步回归和逐步判别分析方法基础上 ,集成建立了单季晚稻褐飞虱发生程度的长、中、短期客观预报模式。长期、中期和短期预报模式的起报时间分别为当年的 1月、3月和 8月中旬。这 3种预报模式对 1 985～1 998年的历史拟合和 1 999～ 2 0 0 2年的预报误差均在 1级以内。     

风胁迫对三种叶菜的机械损伤及预测模型

为了研究风害对不同叶菜的影响,本研究通过模拟风洞试验,以上海青,四季小白菜,玻璃生菜3种叶菜为试验材料,分别在5,15,25 m/s风速条件下设置5,10,15 min的风胁迫处理,采用电导率法、伤口染色目测法、伤口色泽L值测定法研究风胁迫对不同种类叶菜造成的机械损伤,并对以上3种测定方法进行了综合评价,进而建立相应的数学模型。结果表明:风速和风胁迫时间两因子均对3种叶菜的相对电导率、目测等级、L值有显著性影响;两者的交互作用对上海青和四季小白菜的相对电导率有显著性影响,但对玻璃生菜的相对电导率无显著影响;另外,两者的交互作用对3种叶菜的目测等级均影响显著,但对3种叶菜的L值影响均不显著。25 m/s和15 m/s风对3种叶菜都可引起显著机械损伤,其中,在25 m/s持续15 min风处理下机械损伤最为严重,在此处理组合下,上海青、四季小白菜和玻璃生菜的相对电导率分别高于对照214.70%,228.96%,266.92%;目测等级分别高于对照2.3,2.4和3.6级;L值分别低于对照21.17%,38.91%,42.73%。显然,与上海青和四季小白菜相比,玻璃生菜更容易受到风害影响。Gauss2D拟合模型中,3种叶菜机械损伤拟合模型的决定系数R2均超过0.95,证明该拟合模型能较好地预测不同叶菜遭受风害后的机械损伤程度,可以为风害机械损伤预测提供理论基础。     

近20年外来生物入侵危害与风险评估文献计量分析

外来生物入侵导致全球生物多样性下降,极大地威胁着生态系统健康,已造成很大的生态损失与经济损失。近年来,随着生物入侵的加剧,全球对生物入侵的研究力度不断加大。外来入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估可以为人们提供对入侵可能性和入侵方式更直接的信息,从而为管理者制定管理策略提供依据。基于最近20年间(1995—2014年)科学文献数据库Web of Science的科学引文索引数据库扩展版(SCI-E)中数据,对外来入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估方面的研究进行了文献计量分析,旨在了解当前国际研究现状,以便推动中国的生物入侵相关研究。为了全面掌握全球外来生物入侵生态危害与风险评估方面的研究,采用Bibexcel与TDA文献计量工具,对Web of Science数据库中相关文献进行了分析,去重后共获取5492篇文献。结果表明:近20年(1995—2014年)入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估方面的研究刊文量呈现前缓后剧增的趋势,2008—2014年进入了快速发展阶段,文献数量急剧增加,2014年达到最高(511篇);美国发文量远超其它国家,占据主导地位,中国刊文量排名第5。美国、澳大利亚、法国、英国、德国的研究论文影响力较大。刊文量最多的研究机构为美国农业部(USDA),中国科学院发文量排名第10位。研究学科主要为昆虫学、农艺学、植物科学、生态学,研究热点集中在生物防治、风险评估、粮食作物和经济作物的病虫害防治、杂草防控,以及生物入侵与气候变化的关系等方面。有关外来入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估的研究多集中于北美、澳大利亚和欧洲,未来要加强亚洲地区,特别是中国外来生物入侵风险评估的研究;要加强气候变化对外来生物物种特性的影响研究,更多关注入侵生物的生态控制与生态恢复方面的研究,以便更好地为今后长期有效地防控入侵生物提供理论与技术指导。     

Selecting models to predict the timing of flowering of temperate trees: implications for tree phenology modelling

Classical budburst models (Spring Warming, Sequential, Parallel and Alternating) are unable to fully predict external data, partly because of the methods of optimization used to adjust them. The purpose of this study was to examine different assumptions of budburst models and select those which are best supported by the data, defining new models able to predict external data. Eight models, each differing in one assumption, were fitted and tested using external data. The dataset used to test the models was deduced from aeropalynological data at two stations in France. The results show that some of the models proposed are able to accurately predict external dates of flowering of most of the studied species. The assumptions of those models have been individually tested and shown to improve the models accuracy. Robust estimates of the best predictor models of 12 tree species are presented. The analysis of hypothetical provenance transfer of two species, Buxus sempervirens and Platanus acerifolia, between the two study sites, shows that P. acerifolia estimates are similar in both environments whereas B. sempervirens estimates are variable. This result, which agrees with the genetic characteristics of both species, shows that local adaptation of phenology can also be studied through modelling approaches.     

The response of salt marsh vegetation to tidal reduction caused by the Oosterschelde storm-surge barrier

In 1986 a sluice gate barrier was completed in the mouth of the Oosterschelde estuary. The barrier has been partially or completely closed during 1986 and the first months of 1987. Consequently the high tides were reduced to such a level that the salt marshes were scarcely flooded. Since April 1987 the barrier has been closed on average during two out of 706 high tides a year. Although the barrier allows tidal exchange the tidal flow has been restricted as a result of the reduced width of the mouth of the estuary. This restriction of the tidal flow caused a 26 cm decrease of mean high water in the eastern part of the estuary. As a result the inundation frequencies of the salt marshes decreased.The response of salt-marsh vegetation to this tidal reduction was analyzed using annual records (1982 till 1990) of species composition in 57 permanent plots in two marshes at the southern shore of the estuary. Analysis of the response of individual species to marsh elevation in the pre and the post-barrier situation revealed that most species moved down the marsh elevation gradient. The first axis of an ordination (DCA-1) was significantly negatively related to inundation frequency. Between 1984 and 1990 all plots were displaced towards a significantly higher ordination score, indicating a trend towards a species composition from higher up the marsh. The position of most plots along DCA-1 remained stable until 1985 and started to increase in 1986 or 1987. The vegetation in plots dominated either by Halimione portulacoides or by Spartina anglica, started to change in 1985. This premature change was attributed to frost damage in January 1985. The initially high rate of change along DCA-1 decreased in 1989 and 1990. This would suggest that the vegetation re-equilibrated with the newly established tidal conditions. Further analysis revealed no significant difference in the relation between inundation frequency and sample score along DCA-1 between 1984 and 1990. This corroborates the view that species composition had re-equilibrated with the tidal conditions. Along DCA-2 the samples were displaced towards a significantly higher score as well. The change was attributed to an increase of the perennial Halimione and the annual Suaeda maritima. The annual Atriplex hastata displayed an increase from 1986 till 1988, but strongly declined in 1990. The transient response of this annual was described by DCA-3.During the pre-barrier phase several attempts had been made to predict the vegetation response to tidal reduction. We developed a multivariate model (CCA) with inundation frequency as a constraining factor to describe the relation between inundation frequency and species composition in the pre-barrier phase in 1984. Next we used this model to predict the score of the samples along CCA-1 in the post-barrier phase from the inundation frequencies in 1990. The actual ordination score in 1990 was calculated from the observed species composition. The predicted ordination scores did not differ significantly from the observed ones. In retrospect it is concluded that the response of the vegetation to the reduction of the tides, as far as the fraction of species composition which is related to inundation frequency is concerned, could have been predicted by our model.

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Comparing model predictions and experimental data for the response of stomatal conductance and guard cell turgor to manipulations of cuticular conductance, leaf-to-air vapour pressure difference and temperature: feedback mechanisms are able to account for all observations

Stomata respond to increasing leaf-to-air vapour pressure difference (LAVPD) ( D ) by closing. The mechanism by which this occurs is debated. A role for feedback and peristomatal transpiration has been proposed. In this paper, we apply a recent mechanistic model of stomatal behaviour, and compare model and experimental data for the influence of increasing D on stomatal conductance.
We manipulated cuticular conductance ( g _c) by three independent methods. First, we increased g _c by using a solvent mixture applied to both leaf surfaces prior to determining stomatal responses to D ; second, we increased g _c by increasing leaf temperature at constant D ; and third, we coated a small area of leaf with a light oil to decrease g _c. In all three experiments, experimental data and model outputs showed very close agreement.
We conclude, from the close agreement between model and experimental data and the fact that manipulations of g _c, and hence cuticular transpiration, influenced g _s in ways consistent with a feedback mechanism, that feedback is central in determining stomatal responses to D .     

小型无脊椎动物对混播草地白三叶叶片伤害程度研究

采用非破坏性的田间观测方法,以主匍匐茎的叶片伤害数,叶片伤害率和叶片伤害程度3个变量为指标,综合评价了小型无脊椎动物对多年生黑麦草与白三叶的混播草地白三叶叶片的伤害程度,系统探讨了白三叶品种类型（Alice,Retor和Gwenda),刈割频率（高与低）及草地特征（如三叶含量,地上生物量和草层高度）对小型无脊椎动物对叶片伤害的影响。研究表明,高频率刈割的草地白三叶叶片总的伤害数及中等程度伤害的叶片数明显地高于低频率刈割处理（分别为21％和35％）,另外,研究期总的叶片伤害数不同程度伤害的叶片数因白三叶品种的不同而存在着很大差异,且这种差异在春季,夏末和秋季等3个时期均十分明显,在这3个时期,在两种频率刈割下,均是品种Retor的叶片伤害数和叶片伤害率明显高于品种Alice和Gwenda,研究还表明,叶片的伤害与白三叶种群特征如白三叶含量和地上生物量存在显著的负相关,白三叶含量和地上生物量越低,则叶片的伤害数和伤害率就越高,回归模型显示,白三叶含量和地上生物量可以解释叶片的伤害数在春季,夏末,秋季各65％,59％和50％的变异,可以解释叶片伤害率在这3个时期各58％,57％和45％。     

Developments from analysis of variance through to generalized linear models and beyond

The collaborations between statisticians and biologists during the 100 years since AAB was founded have led to a very impressive list of statistical techniques, whose use now goes well beyond agriculture and biology. One example is the maximum likelihood methodology for probit analysis, arising from the collaboration between Sir Ronald Fisher and Chester Bliss. Others include analysis of variance, design of experiments, generalized linear models and the residual, or restricted, maximum likelihood (REML) algorithm for fitting unbalanced linear mixed models.     

Effect of prolonged exercise on oxidative damage and susceptibility to oxidants of rat tissues in severe hyperthyroidism

We investigated effects of prolonged aerobic exercise and severe hyperthyroidism on indices of oxidative damage, susceptibility to oxidants, and respiratory capacity of homogenates from rat liver, heart and skeletal muscle. Both treatments induced increases in hydroperoxide and protein-bound carbonyl levels. Moreover, the highest increases were found when hyperthyroid animals were subjected to exercise. These changes, which were associated to reduced exercise endurance capacity, were in part due to higher susceptibility to oxidants of hyperthyroid tissues. Levels of oxidative damage indices were scarcely related to changes in antioxidant enzyme activities and lipid-soluble antioxidant concentrations. However, the finding that, following exercise the scavenger levels generally decreased in liver homogenates and increased in heart and muscles ones, suggested a net shuttle of antioxidants from liver to other tissues under need. Aerobic capacity, evaluated by cytochrome oxidase activity, was not modified by exercise, which, conversely, affected the rates of oxygen consumption of hyperthyroid preparations. These results seem to confirm the higher susceptibility of hyperthyroid tissues to oxidative challenge, because the mechanisms underlying the opposite changes in respiration rates during State 4 and State 3 likely involve oxidative modifications of components of mitochondrial respiratory chain, different from cytochrome aa3.     

Comparison of damage to native and exotic tallgrass prairie plants by natural enemies

We surveyed the prevalence and amount of leaf damage related to herbivory and pathogens on 12 pairs of exotic (invasive and noninvasive) and ecologically similar native plant species in tallgrass prairie to examine whether patterns of damage match predictions from the enemy release hypothesis. We also assessed whether natural enemy impacts differed in response to key environmental factors in tallgrass prairie by surveying the prevalence of rust on the dominant C₄ grass, Andropogon gerardii, and its congeneric invasive exotic C₄ grass, A. bladhii, in response to fire and nitrogen fertilization treatments. Overall, we found that the native species sustain 56.4% more overall leaf damage and 83.6% more herbivore-related leaf damage when compared to the exotic species. Moreover, we found that the invasive exotic species sustained less damage from enemies relative to their corresponding native species than the noninvasive exotic species. Finally, we found that burning and nitrogen fertilization both significantly increased the prevalence of rust fungi in the native grass, while rust fungi rarely occurred on the exotic grass. These results indicate that reduced damage from enemies may in part explain the successful naturalization of exotic species and the spread of invasive exotic species in tallgrass prairie.     

When genome integrity and cell cycle decisions collide: roles of polo kinases in cellular adaptation to DNA damage

The drive to proliferate and the need to maintain genome integrity are two of the most powerful forces acting on biological systems. When these forces enter in conflict, such as in the case of cells experiencing DNA damage, feedback mechanisms are activated to ensure that cellular proliferation is stopped and no further damage is introduced while cells repair their chromosomal lesions. In this circumstance, the DNA damage response dominates over the biological drive to proliferate, and may even result in programmed cell death if the damage cannot be repaired efficiently. Interestingly, the drive to proliferate can under specific conditions overcome the DNA damage response and lead to a reactivation of the proliferative program in checkpoint-arrested cells. This phenomenon is known as adaptation to DNA damage and is observed in all eukaryotic species where the process has been studied, including normal and cancer cells in humans. Polo-like kinases (PLKs) are critical regulators of the adaptation response to DNA damage and they play key roles at the interface of cell cycle and checkpoint-related decisions in cells. Here, we review recent progress in defining the specific roles of PLKs in the adaptation process and how this conserved family of eukaryotic kinases can integrate the fundamental need to preserve genomic integrity with effective cellular proliferation.     

Integrating terrestrial laser scanning with functional–structural plant models to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes of forest communities

BackgroundWoody plants (trees and shrubs) play an important role in terrestrial ecosystems, but their size and longevity make them difficult subjects for traditional experiments. In the last 20 years functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) have evolved: they consider the interplay between plant modular structure, the immediate environment and internal functioning. However, computational constraints and data deficiency have long been limiting factors in a broader application of FSPMs, particularly at the scale of forest communities. Recently, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), has emerged as an invaluable tool for capturing the 3-D structure of forest communities, thus opening up exciting opportunities to explore and predict forest dynamics with FSPMs.ScopeThe potential synergies between TLS-derived data and FSPMs have yet to be fully explored. Here, we summarize recent developments in FSPM and TLS research, with a specific focus on woody plants. We then evaluate the emerging opportunities for applying FSPMs in an ecological and evolutionary context, in light of TLS-derived data, with particular consideration of the challenges posed by scaling up from individual trees to whole forests. Finally, we propose guidelines for incorporating TLS data into the FSPM workflow to encourage overlap of practice amongst researchers.ConclusionsWe conclude that TLS is a feasible tool to help shift FSPMs from an individual-level modelling technique to a community-level one. The ability to scan multiple trees, of multiple species, in a short amount of time, is paramount to gathering the detailed structural information required for parameterizing FSPMs for forest communities. Conventional techniques, such as repeated manual forest surveys, have their limitations in explaining the driving mechanisms behind observed patterns in 3-D forest structure and dynamics. Therefore, other techniques are valuable to explore how forests might respond to environmental change. A robust synthesis between TLS and FSPMs provides the opportunity to virtually explore the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest communities.     

Food and habitats requirements of the Eurasian Scops Owl (Otus scops) in Switzerland revealed by very high-resolution multi-scale models

In Europe, agricultural practices have progressively evolved towards high productivity leading either to the intensification of productive and accessible areas or to the abandonment of less profitable sites. Both processes have led to the degradation of semi-natural habitats like extensive grasslands, threatening species such as the Eurasian Scops Owl Otus scops that rely on extensively managed agricultural landscapes. In this work, we aimed to assess the habitat preferences of the Scops Owl using habitat suitability models combined with a multi-scale approach. We generated a set of multi-scale predictors, considering both biotic and abiotic variables, built on two newly developed vegetation management and orthopteran abundance models. To select the variables to incorporate in a ‘best multi-scale model’, we chose the best spatial scale for each variable using univariate models and by calculating their relative importance through multi-model inference. Next, we built ensembles of small models (ESMs) at 10 different scales from 50 to 1000 m, and an additional model with each variable at its best scale (‘best multi-scale model’). The latter performed better than most of the other ESMs and allowed the creation of a high-resolution habitat suitability map for the species. Scops Owls showed a preference for dry sites with extensive and well-structured habitats with 30–40% bush cover, and relied strongly on semi-extensive grasslands covering at least 30% of the surface within 300 m of the territory centre and with high orthopteran availability near the centre (50-m radius), revealing a need for good foraging grounds near the nest. At a larger spatial scale within a radius of 1000 m, the habitat suitability of Scops Owls was negatively related to forest cover. The resulting ESM predictions provide valuable tools for conservation planning, highlighting sites in need of particular conservation efforts together with offering estimates of the percentage of habitat types and necessary prey abundance that could be used as targets in future management plans to ensure the persistence of the population.     

Assessing the causes of diversification slowdowns: temperature‐dependent and diversity‐dependent models receive equivalent support

Diversification rates vary over time, yet the factors driving these variations remain unclear. Temporal declines in speciation rates have often been interpreted as the effect of ecological limits, competition, and diversity dependence, emphasising the role of biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as climate change, are also supposed to have affected diversification rates over geological time scales, yet direct tests of these presumed effects have mainly been limited to few clades well represented in the fossil record. If warmer climatic periods have sustained faster speciation, this could explain slowdowns in speciation during the Cenozoic climate cooling. Here, we apply state‐of‐the art diversity‐dependent and temperature‐dependent phylogenetic models of diversification to 218 tetrapod families, along with constant rate and time‐dependent models. We confirm the prevalence of diversification slowdowns, and find as much support for temperature‐dependent than diversity‐dependent models. These results call for a better integration of these two processes in studies of diversification dynamics.     

Nature protection areas of Europe are insufficient to preserve the threatened beetle Rosalia alpina (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae): evidence from species distribution models and conservation gap analysis

1. Natura 2000 network (N2000) and national protected areas (NPAs) are recognised as the most important core ‘units’ for biological conservation in Europe. 2. Species distribution models (SDMs) were developed to detect the potential distribution of the rare and threatened cerambycid beetle Rosalia alpina L. in Europe, and the amount of suitable habitat within the N2000 network [special areas of conservation (SACs) and special protection areas (SPAs)], NPAs (e.g. national parks, regional parks, state reserves, natural monuments and protected landscapes) and the overall European protected area network (EPAN) (N2000 + NPAs) was quantified. 3. According to this analysis, the suitable habitat for R. alpina in Europe amounts to c. 754 171 km² and stretches across substantially uninterrupted areas from Portugal to Romania (west to east) and from Greece to Germany (south to north). The overlay between the existing system of conservation areas in Europe (N2000 and NPAs) and the binary map for R. alpina showed that only c. 42% of potential habitat is protected. SACs and SPAs protect c. 25% and 21% of potential habitat, respectively. However, because the two site types often spatially overlap, when taken together the entire N2000 network protects c. 31% of potential habitat. Instead, NPAs offer a degree of protection of c. 29%. Overall, almost 60% of the area potentially suitable for the species is unprotected by the EPAN, an aspect that should be considered carefully when planning the conservation of this beetle at a large scale. 4. These results may also help to focus field surveys in selected areas where greater chances of success are encountered to save resources and increase survey effectiveness.