Two life prediction models for optoelectronic displays without conventional life tests

To precisely predict the life of optoelectronic displays over a short time, two life prediction models were established based on the three‐parameter Weibull right approximation method (TPWRAM). In Model I, the acceleration life under each stress was obtained using TPWRAM, the data points formed by acceleration life and acceleration stress were, respectively, fitted by three extrapolation functions and the optimal extrapolation function was determined by comparing the fitting determination coefficient and root‐mean‐square error. In Model II, after introducing an acceleration parameter, the luminance attenuation data under conventional stress were calculated directly by combining the ones obtained using TPWRAM under each acceleration stress. The luminance attenuation test data from the vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) were collected through four groups of constant‐stress accelerated degradation tests (ADT), and the two models were applied to the life prediction of VFD. The results indicated that the designed ADT scheme was feasible, Model I revealed the changing law of life with stress and simplified the process of life prediction, and Model II made it possible to obtain the luminance attenuation formula at conventional stress without conducting a conventional life test, overcoming the shortcomings of long time‐consuming traditional life tests. It was verified by comparing the life prediction values that the two models had very high precision, and both of these not only achieve the accurate estimation of optoelectronic product life without resorting to conventional life test, but also improved the method of life prediction and perfect its theoretical system.     

Experimental test and life estimation of the OLED at normal working stress based on the luminance degradation model

In order to accurately acquire the life time information for the organic light emitting diode (OLED), an experiment based on the normal stress life test was carried out to gain the data for the luminance degradation tests. The luminance degradation model of OLED was established based on the Weibull function and the least square method. Combined with luminance degradation data, Weibull parameters were estimated, the qualitative and the quantitative relationship between the initial luminance and the OLED life was obtained, and the life estimation of the product was achieved. Numerical results show that the test scheme is feasible, the luminance degradation model proves to be reliable for the OLED life estimation, and the fitting accuracy is very high by comparison with the test data fluctuation. Moreover, the real life time of the OLED is measured, which can verify the validity of the assumptions used in accelerated life test methods and provide manufacturers and customers with significant guidelines. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Duty ratio drive prediction model of lifetime degradation for organic light emitting diode-on-silicon microdisplay

A duty ratio drive prediction (DRDP) model of luminance degradation for organic light emitting diodes (OLED) microdisplay is proposed in this paper. The traditional stretched exponential decay (SED) model is not applicable for OLED driven by duty ratio. The DRDP model introduces the duty ratio as the variables affecting the lifetime of OLED. By fitting the undetermined coefficients with the measured luminance data, the quantitative relationships among the initial luminance, duty ratio, and OLED lifetime are obtained. Meanwhile, the model quantifies the phenomenon of spontaneous luminance recovery, which occurs when OLED switches from bright to dark. Finally, the DRDP model is used to compensate the luminance degradation of OLED driven by duty ratio. The experimental results show that the average prediction accuracy of DRDP model for white, red, green, and blue (W/R/G/B) OLED degradation trend is 0.9623. The average prediction accuracy of W/R/G/B OLED lifetime is 0.6119, which is greater than that of SED model. The lifetime is extended by 89.83% after compensation.     

Modeling of phenol degradation system using artificial neural networks

Pseudomonas pictorum (NICM-2077) an effective strain used in the biodegradation of phenol was grown on various nutrient compounds which protect the microbes while confronting shock loads of concentrated toxic pollutants during waste water treatment. In the present study the effect of glucose, yeast extract, (NH₄)₂SO₄ and NaCl on phenol degradation has been investigated and a Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model has been developed to predict degradation. Also the learning, recall and generalization characteristics of neural networks has been studied using phenol degradation system data. The network model was then compared with a Multiple Regression Analysis model (MRA) arrived from the same training data. Further, these two models were used to predict the percentage degradation of phenol for a blind test data. Though both the models perform equally well ANN is found to be better than MRA due to its slightly higher coefficient of correlation, lower RMS error value and lower average absolute error value during prediction.     

Improved free energy parameters for RNA pseudoknotted secondary structure prediction

Accurate prediction of RNA pseudoknotted secondary structures from the base sequence is a challenging computational problem. Since prediction algorithms rely on thermodynamic energy models to identify low-energy structures, prediction accuracy relies in large part on the quality of free energy change parameters. In this work, we use our earlier constraint generation and Boltzmann likelihood parameter estimation methods to obtain new energy parameters for two energy models for secondary structures with pseudoknots, namely, the Dirks–Pierce (DP) and the Cao–Chen (CC) models. To train our parameters, and also to test their accuracy, we create a large data set of both pseudoknotted and pseudoknot-free secondary structures. In addition to structural data our training data set also includes thermodynamic data, for which experimentally determined free energy changes are available for sequences and their reference structures. When incorporated into the HotKnots prediction algorithm, our new parameters result in significantly improved secondary structure prediction on our test data set. Specifically, the prediction accuracy when using our new parameters improves from 68% to 79% for the DP model, and from 70% to 77% for the CC model.     

Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls

The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1–7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8 % decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE?=?53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10 % drop in prediction error (RMSE?=?62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory’s official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower.     

Response-adaptive regression for longitudinal data

We propose a response-adaptive model for functional linear regression, which is adapted to sparsely sampled longitudinal responses. Our method aims at predicting response trajectories and models the regression relationship by directly conditioning the sparse and irregular observations of the response on the predictor, which can be of scalar, vector, or functional type. This obliterates the need to model the response trajectories, a task that is challenging for sparse longitudinal data and was previously required for functional regression implementations for longitudinal data. The proposed approach turns out to be superior compared to previous functional regression approaches in terms of prediction error. It encompasses a variety of regression settings that are relevant for the functional modeling of longitudinal data in the life sciences. The improved prediction of response trajectories with the proposed response-adaptive approach is illustrated for a longitudinal study of Kiwi weight growth and by an analysis of the dynamic relationship between viral load and CD4 cell counts observed in AIDS clinical trials.     

Optimizing Artificial Neural Network-Based Models to Predict Rice Blast Epidemics in Korea

To predict rice blast, many machine learning methods have been proposed. As the quality and quantity of input data are essential for machine learning techniques, this study develops three artificial neural network (ANN)-based rice blast prediction models by combining two ANN models, the feed-forward neural network (FFNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), with diverse input datasets, and compares their performance. The Blast_Weather_FFNN model had the highest recall score (66.3%) for rice blast prediction. This model requires two types of input data: blast occurrence data for the last 3 years and weather data (daily maximum temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation) between January and July of the prediction year. This study showed that the performance of an ANN-based disease prediction model was improved by applying suitable machine learning techniques together with the optimization of hyperparameter tuning involving input data. Moreover, we highlight the importance of the systematic collection of long-term disease data.     

Fides: Reliable trust-region optimization for parameter estimation of ordinary differential equation models

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to study biochemical reactions in cellular networks since they effectively describe the temporal evolution of these networks using mass action kinetics. The parameters of these models are rarely known a priori and must instead be estimated by calibration using experimental data. Optimization-based calibration of ODE models on is often challenging, even for low-dimensional problems. Multiple hypotheses have been advanced to explain why biochemical model calibration is challenging, including non-identifiability of model parameters, but there are few comprehensive studies that test these hypotheses, likely because tools for performing such studies are also lacking. Nonetheless, reliable model calibration is essential for uncertainty analysis, model comparison, and biological interpretation.We implemented an established trust-region method as a modular Python framework (fides) to enable systematic comparison of different approaches to ODE model calibration involving a variety of Hessian approximation schemes. We evaluated fides on a recently developed corpus of biologically realistic benchmark problems for which real experimental data are available. Unexpectedly, we observed high variability in optimizer performance among different implementations of the same mathematical instructions (algorithms). Analysis of possible sources of poor optimizer performance identified limitations in the widely used Gauss-Newton, BFGS and SR1 Hessian approximation schemes. We addressed these drawbacks with a novel hybrid Hessian approximation scheme that enhances optimizer performance and outperforms existing hybrid approaches. When applied to the corpus of test models, we found that fides was on average more reliable and efficient than existing methods using a variety of criteria. We expect fides to be broadly useful for ODE constrained optimization problems in biochemical models and to be a foundation for future methods development.     

Consensus methods based on machine learning techniques for marine phytoplankton presence–absence prediction

We performed different consensus methods by combining binary classifiers, mostly machine learning classifiers, with the aim to test their capability as predictive tools for the presence–absence of marine phytoplankton species. The consensus methods were constructed by considering a combination of four methods (i.e., generalized linear models, random forests, boosting and support vector machines). Six different consensus methods were analyzed by taking into account six different ways of combining single-model predictions. Some of these methods are presented here for the first time. To evaluate the performance of the models, we considered eight phytoplankton species presence–absence data sets and data related to environmental variables. Some of the analyzed species are toxic, whereas others provoke water discoloration, which can cause alarm in the population. Besides the phytoplankton data sets, we tested the models on 10 well-known open access data sets. We evaluated the models' performances over a test sample. For most (72%) of the data sets, a consensus method was the method with the lowest classification error. In particular, a consensus method that weighted single-model predictions in accordance with single-model performances (weighted average prediction error — WA-PE model) was the one that presented the lowest classification error most of the time. For the phytoplankton species, the errors of the WA-PE model were between 10% for the species Akashiwo sanguinea and 38% for Dinophysis acuminata. This study provides novel approaches to improve the prediction accuracy in species distribution studies and, in particular, in those concerning marine phytoplankton species.     

Expanded thermodynamic true yield prediction model: adjustments and limitations

Bacterial yield prediction is critical for bioprocess optimization and modeling of natural biological systems. In previous work, an expanded thermodynamic true yield prediction model was developed through incorporating carbon balance and nitrogen balance along with electron balance and energy balance. In the present work, the application of the expanded model is demonstrated in multiple growth situations (aerobic heterotrophs, anoxic, anaerobic heterotrophs, and autolithotrophs). Two adjustments are presented that enable improved prediction when additional information regarding the environmental conditions (pH) or degradation pathway (requirement for oxygenase- or oxidase-catalyzed reactions) is known. A large data set of reported yields is presented and considered for suitability in model validation. Significant uncertainties of literature-reported yield values are described. Evaluation of the model with experimental yield values shows good predictive ability. However, the wide range in reported yields and the variability introduced into the prediction by uncertainty in model parameters, limits comprehensive validation. Our results suggest that the uncertainty of the experimental data used for validation limits further improvement of thermodynamic prediction models.     

Improving prediction of helix–helix packing in membrane proteins using predicted contact numbers as restraints

One of the challenging problems in tertiary structure prediction of helical membrane proteins (HMPs) is the determination of rotation of α‐helices around the helix normal. Incorrect prediction of helix rotations substantially disrupts native residue–residue contacts while inducing only a relatively small effect on the overall fold. We previously developed a method for predicting residue contact numbers (CNs), which measure the local packing density of residues within the protein tertiary structure. In this study, we tested the idea of incorporating predicted CNs as restraints to guide the sampling of helix rotation. For a benchmark set of 15 HMPs with simple to rather complicated folds, the average contact recovery (CR) of best‐sampled models was improved for all targets, the likelihood of sampling models with CR greater than 20% was increased for 13 targets, and the average RMSD100 of best‐sampled models was improved for 12 targets. This study demonstrated that explicit incorporation of CNs as restraints improves the prediction of helix–helix packing. Proteins 2017; 85:1212–1221. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Improved prediction of smoking status via isoform-aware RNA-seq deep learning models

Most predictive models based on gene expression data do not leverage information related to gene splicing, despite the fact that splicing is a fundamental feature of eukaryotic gene expression. Cigarette smoking is an important environmental risk factor for many diseases, and it has profound effects on gene expression. Using smoking status as a prediction target, we developed deep neural network predictive models using gene, exon, and isoform level quantifications from RNA sequencing data in 2,557 subjects in the COPDGene Study. We observed that models using exon and isoform quantifications clearly outperformed gene-level models when using data from 5 genes from a previously published prediction model. Whereas the test set performance of the previously published model was 0.82 in the original publication, our exon-based models including an exon-to-isoform mapping layer achieved a test set AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic) of 0.88, which improved to an AUC of 0.94 using exon quantifications from a larger set of genes. Isoform variability is an important source of latent information in RNA-seq data that can be used to improve clinical prediction models.     

Including dominance effects in the prediction model through locus-specific weights on heterozygous genotypes can greatly improve genomic predictive abilities

The dominance effect is considered to be a key factor affecting complex traits. However, previous studies have shown that the improvement of the model, including the dominance effect, is usually less than 1%. This study proposes a novel genomic prediction method called CADM, which combines additive and dominance genetic effects through locus-specific weights on heterozygous genotypes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of weighting dominance effects for genomic prediction. This method was applied to the analysis of chicken (511 birds) and pig (3534 animals) datasets. A 5-fold cross-validation method was used to evaluate the genomic predictive ability. The CADM model was compared with typical models considering additive and dominance genetic effects (ADM) and the model considering only additive genetic effects (AM). Based on the chicken data, using the CADM model, the genomic predictive abilities were improved for all three traits (body weight at 12th week, eviscerating percentage, and breast muscle percentage), and the average improvement in prediction accuracy was 27.1% compared with the AM model, while the ADM model was not better than the AM model. Based on the pig data, the CADM model increased the genomic predictive ability for all the three pig traits (trait names are masked, here designated as T1, T2, and T3), with an average increase of 26.3%, and the ADM model did not improve, or even slightly decreased, compared with the AM model. The results indicate that dominant genetic variation is one of the important sources of phenotypic variation, and the novel prediction model significantly improves the accuracy of genomic prediction.Subject terms: Animal breeding, Quantitative trait     

Degradation Model of Bioabsorbable Cardiovascular Stents

This study established a numerical model to investigate the degradation mechanism and behavior of bioabsorbable cardiovascular stents. In order to generate the constitutive degradation material model, the degradation characteristics were characterized with user-defined field variables. The radial strength bench test and analysis were used to verify the material model. In order to validate the numerical degradation model, in vitro bench test and in vivo implantation studies were conducted under physiological and normal conditions. The results showed that six months of degradation had not influenced the thermodynamic properties and mechanical integrity of the stent while the molecular weight of the stents implanted in the in vivo and in vitro models had decreased to 61.8% and 68.5% respectively after six month''s implantation. It was also found that the degradation rate, critical locations and changes in diameter of the stents in the numerical model were in good consistency in both in vivo and in vitro studies. It implies that the numerical degradation model could provide useful physical insights and prediction of the stent degradation behavior and evaluate, to some extent, the in-vivo performance of the stent. This model could eventually be used for design and optimization of bioabsorbable stent.     

Do Stacked Species Distribution Models Reflect Altitudinal Diversity Patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed.     

On-line multi-analyzer monitoring of biomass, glucose and acetate for growth rate control of a Vibrio cholerae fed-batch cultivation

In situ near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and in-line electronic nose (EN) mapping were used to monitor and control a cholera-toxin producing Vibrio cholerae fed-batch cultivation carried out with a laboratory method as well as with a production method. Prediction models for biomass, glucose and acetate using NIR spectroscopy were developed based on spectral identification and partial-least squares (PLS) regression resulting in high correlation to reference data (standard errors of prediction for biomass, glucose and acetate were 0.20 gl(-1), 0.26 gl(-1) and 0.28 gl(-1)). A compensation algorithm for aerated bioreactor disturbances was integrated in the model computation, which in particular improved the prediction by the biomass model. First, the NIR data were applied together with EN in-line data selected by principal component analysis (PCA) for generating a trajectory representation of the fed-batch cultivation. A correlation between the culture progression and EN signals was demonstrated, which proved to be beneficial in monitoring the culture quality. It was shown that a deviation from a normal cultivation behavior could easily be recognized and that the trajectory was able to alarm a bacterial contamination. Second, the NIR data indicated the potential of predicting the concentration of formed cholera toxin with a model prediction error of 0.020 gl(-1). Third, the on-line biomass prediction based on the NIR model was used to control the overflow metabolism acetate formation of the V. cholerae culture. The controller compared actual specific growth rate as estimated from the prediction with the critical acetate formation growth rate, and from that difference adjusted the glucose feed rate.     

我国林火发生预测模型研究进展

通过文献回顾,总结了国内林火发生预测模型的研究现状,并从林火发生驱动因子、林火发生概率预测模型、林火发生频次预测模型和模型检验方法等方面进行归纳分析。得出以下结论: 1)气象、地形、植被、可燃物、人类活动等因素是影响林火发生及模型预测精度的主要驱动因子;2)林火发生概率模型中,地理加权逻辑斯蒂回归模型考虑了变量之间的空间相关性,Gompit回归模型适宜非对称结构的林火数据,随机森林模型不需要多重共线性检验,在避免过度拟合的同时提高了预测精度,是林火发生概率预测模型的优选方法之一;3)林火发生频次模型中,负二项回归模型更适合对过度离散数据进行模拟,零膨胀模型和栅栏模型可以处理林火数据中包含大量零值的问题;4)ROC检验、AIC检验、似然比检验和Wald检验方法是林火概率和频次模型的常用检验方法。林火发生预测模型研究仍是我国当前林火管理工作的重点,预测模型的选择需要依据不同地区林火数据特点。此外,构建林火预测模型时需要考虑更多的影响因素,以提高模型预测精度;未来,需要进一步探索其他数学模型在林火发生预测中的应用,不断提高林火发生预测模型的准确度。