Biogeography and speciation of terrestrial fauna in the south‐western Australian biodiversity hotspot

The south‐western land division of Western Australia (SWWA), bordering the temperate Southern and Indian Oceans, is the only global biodiversity hotspot recognised in Australia. Renowned for its extraordinary diversity of endemic plants, and for some of the largest and most botanically significant temperate heathlands and woodlands on Earth, SWWA has long fascinated biogeographers. Its flat, highly weathered topography and the apparent absence of major geographic factors usually implicated in biotic diversification have challenged attempts to explain patterns of biogeography and mechanisms of speciation in the region. Botanical studies have always been central to understanding the biodiversity values of SWWA, although surprisingly few quantitative botanical analyses have allowed for an understanding of historical biogeographic processes in both space and time. Faunistic studies, by contrast, have played little or no role in defining hotspot concepts, despite several decades of accumulating quantitative research on the phylogeny and phylogeography of multiple lineages. In this review we critically analyse datasets with explicit supporting phylogenetic data and estimates of the time since divergence for all available elements of the terrestrial fauna, and compare these datasets to those available for plants. In situ speciation has played more of a role in shaping the south‐western Australian fauna than has long been supposed, and has occurred in numerous endemic lineages of freshwater fish, frogs, reptiles, snails and less‐vagile arthropods. By contrast, relatively low levels of endemism are found in birds, mammals and highly dispersive insects, and in situ speciation has played a negligible role in generating local endemism in birds and mammals. Quantitative studies provide evidence for at least four mechanisms driving patterns of endemism in south‐western Australian animals, including: (i) relictualism of ancient Gondwanan or Pangaean taxa in the High Rainfall Province; (ii) vicariant isolation of lineages west of the Nullarbor divide; (iii) in situ speciation; and (iv) recent population subdivision. From dated quantitative studies we derive four testable models of historical biogeography for animal taxa in SWWA, each explicit in providing a spatial, temporal and topological perspective on patterns of speciation or divergence. For each model we also propose candidate lineages that may be worthy of further study, given what we know of their taxonomy, distributions or relationships. These models formalise four of the strongest patterns seen in many animal taxa from SWWA, although other models are clearly required to explain particular, idiosyncratic patterns. Generating numerous new datasets for suites of co‐occurring lineages in SWWA will help refine our understanding of the historical biogeography of the region, highlight gaps in our knowledge, and allow us to derive general postulates from quantitative (rather than qualitative) results. For animals, this process has now begun in earnest, as has the process of taxonomically documenting many of the more diverse invertebrate lineages. The latter remains central to any attempt to appreciate holistically biogeographic patterns and processes in SWWA, and molecular phylogenetic studies should – where possible – also lead to tangible taxonomic outcomes.     

Climatic fluctuations shape the phylogeography of a mesic direct‐developing frog from the south‐western Australian biodiversity hotspot

Aim To assess phylogeographic pattern throughout the range of Metacrinia nichollsi in order to develop specific biogeographical hypotheses for the wet forests of south‐western Australia. This was carried out by contrasting a direct‐developing frog species, M. nichollsi, that breeds independently of free surface water with conventional, aquatic breeders and highly specialized direct developers. Location Wet forests of the south‐western Australian biodiversity hotspot – an area of high species richness and endemism for myobatrachid frogs and many other faunal groups. Methods We compiled an extensive phylogeographic data set from field‐collected samples based on mitochondrial ND2 sequences. Phylogenetic analyses combined with estimates of divergence times were used to build a model of major biogeographical events affecting the species. Phylogeographic analyses were used to provide insights into smaller‐scale processes acting within each major lineage. Results Phylogenetic analysis recovered three major lineages, with divergence dates coincident with late Miocene–early Pliocene arid cycles. One lineage was confined to geographically isolated populations in the Stirling Ranges (Stirling Ranges Lineage, SRL). The continuous range of M. nichollsi was split into two: the Main Range Lineage (MRL) and the Southern Coastal Lineage (SCL). The SCL displays a strong drainage‐based population structure, whereas the MRL displays a strong signature of recent expansion, suggesting that these two lineages have had very different biogeographical histories. Main conclusions Late Miocene–Pliocene aridity appears to have isolated populations in the Stirling Ranges and resulted in the formation of two additional lineages on a north–south gradient that are independent of southward‐flowing drainage systems. Our results demonstrate that climatic fluctuations are likely to have generated fine‐scale phylogeographic structure within M. nichollsi and that catchment regions are important refugia during arid cycles.     

Diversity, endemism and species turnover of millipedes within the south-western Australian global biodiversity hotspot

Aim To examine how current and historical environmental gradients affect patterns of millipede (Diplopoda) endemism and species turnover in a global hotspot of floristic diversity, and to identify regions of high endemism and taxonomic distinctness for conservation management. Location South‐western Australia. Methods Museum database records of millipedes (subclasses Pentazonia and Helminthomorpha), supplemented with extensive fieldwork, were used to map species richness, species turnover (β‐diversity), weighted endemism, average taxonomic distinctness and variation in taxonomic distinctness in half‐degree grid squares (c. 2500 km²). Generalized linear models were used to examine relationships between these parameters with rainfall (present day and historical), topography and human disturbance (clearing for agriculture and urbanization). Results Millipede species richness, particularly within the order Spirostreptida, and millipede endemism were positively associated with large within‐cell differences in elevation (mountainous regions). Large variation in taxonomic distinctness (unevenness in the taxonomic tree) in higher‐rainfall areas was mainly due to speciation within the Spirostreptida genus Atelomastix. Hotspots of millipede endemism and taxonomic distinctness were identified within three categories of importance: primary (Stirling Range East, Cape Le Grand, Cape Arid, Walpole, Porongurups), secondary (Mount Manypeaks, Bremer Bay, Stirling Range West, Duke of Orleans Bay, Ravensthorpe, Albany, Busselton) and tertiary (Nornalup). A species turnover boundary was positively associated with rainfall, broadly located in the transition zone of 300–600 mm year^?1. Main conclusions The current lack of knowledge on the endemism of invertebrates hampers their incorporation into conservation planning. With this knowledge we can identify global biodiversity hotspots and, at a smaller scale, significant conservation areas within a region. Here we have shown that weighted endemism and taxonomic distinctness are useful tools in identifying centres of high endemism and speciation for millipedes within the south‐west Australian hotspot. Moreover, it is unlikely that either vertebrates or vascular plants will be useful surrogates for identifying significant areas for invertebrate conservation. While other workers have shown that vascular plants, mammals and frogs have different centres of endemism within south‐west Australia, our results show that centres of endemism for millipedes encompass all of these plus other areas.     

Temperature‐driven coral decline: the role of marine protected areas

Warming ocean temperatures are considered to be an important cause of the degradation of the world's coral reefs. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as one tool to increase coral reef ecosystem resistance and resilience (i.e. recovery) to the negative effects of climate change, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in achieving these goals. We used a high resolution 4 km global temperature anomaly database from 1985–2005 and 8040 live coral cover surveys on protected and unprotected reefs to determine whether or not MPAs have been effective in mitigating temperature‐driven coral loss. Generally, protection in MPAs did not reduce the effect of warm temperature anomalies on coral cover declines. Shortcomings in MPA design, including size and placement, may have contributed to the lack of an MPA effect. Empirical studies suggest that corals that have been previously exposed to moderate levels of thermal stress have greater adaptive capacity and resistance to future thermal stress events. Existing MPAs protect relatively fewer reefs with moderate anomaly frequencies, potentially reducing their effectiveness. However, our results also suggest that the benefits from MPAs may not be great enough to offset the magnitude of losses from acute thermal stress events. Although MPAs are important conservation tools, their limitations in mitigating coral loss from acute thermal stress events suggest that they need to be complemented with policies aimed at reducing the activities responsible for climate change.     

Biodiversity responses to land‐use and restoration in a global biodiversity hotspot: Ant communities in Brazilian Cerrado

Given that land‐use change is the main cause of global biodiversity decline, there is widespread interest in adopting land‐use practices that maintain high levels of biodiversity, and in restoring degraded land that previously had high biodiversity value. In this study, we use ant taxonomic and functional diversity to examine the effects of different land uses (agriculture, pastoralism, silviculture and conservation) and restoration practices on Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) biodiversity. We also examine the extent to which ant diversity and composition can be explained by vegetation attributes that apply across the full land management spectrum. We surveyed vegetation attributes and ant communities in five replicate plots of each of 13 land‐use and restoration treatments, including two types of native vegetation as reference sites: cerrado sensu stricto and cerradão. Several land‐use and restoration treatments had comparable plot richness to that of the native reference habitats. Ant species and functional composition varied systematically among land‐use treatments following a gradient from open habitats such as agricultural fields to forested sites. Tree basal area and grass cover were the strongest predictors of ant species richness. Losses in ant diversity were higher in land‐use systems that transform vegetation structure. Among productive systems, therefore, uncleared pastures and old pine plantations had similar species composition to that occurring in cerrado sensu stricto. Restoration techniques currently applied to sites that were previously Cerrado have focused on returning tree cover, and have failed to restore ant communities typical of savanna. To improve restoration outcomes for Cerrado biodiversity, greater attention needs to be paid to the re‐establishment and maintenance of the grass layer, which requires frequent fire. At the broader scale, conservation planning in agricultural landscapes, should recognize the value of land‐use mosaics and the risks of homogenization.     

Reproductive biology of Haemulon plumierii in the south‐western Atlantic Ocean's most extensive reefs: implications for fisheries management

The reproductive biology of the white grunt Haemulon plumierii was studied from 360 individuals obtained from artisanal fisheries landings in the Abrolhos Bank, Brazil, between August 2010 and March 2012. The overall sex‐ratio did not differ significantly from 1:1, although males predominated in larger size classes. β‐Binomial modelling of historical sex‐ratio data indicated that the catch rate of females has increased in recent years. Females reached maturity at a smaller total length (L_T; 214 mm) than males (235 mm L_T) and the L_T at which 50% of all individuals are mature (L₅₀) was 220 mm, corresponding to 41·5% of the maximum recorded L_T. Variation in the gonado‐somatic index and in the relative frequency of reproductive stages indicates that reproduction occurs year round, with increased activity during the austral spring and summer. Fecundity was not size dependent. The reproductive parameters provided here can support management measures focussed on seasonal closures during spawning peaks (September to November and February to March) and minimum sizes (>L₅₀) for the capture of this important artisanal fisheries resource in Abrolhos, the region with the largest and most biodiverse coralline reefs in the South Atlantic Ocean.     

Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Aim To compare theoretical approaches towards estimating risks of plant species loss to anthropogenic climate change impacts in a biodiversity hotspot, and to develop a practical method to detect signs of climate change impacts on natural populations. Location The Fynbos biome of South Africa, within the Cape Floristic Kingdom. Methods Bioclimatic modelling was used to identify environmental limits for vegetation at both biome and species scale. For the biome as a whole, and for 330 species of the endemic family Proteaceae, tolerance limits were determined for five temperature and water availability‐related parameters assumed critical for plant survival. Climate scenarios for 2050 generated by the general circulation models HadCM2 and CSM were interpolated for the region. Geographic Information Systems‐based methods were used to map current and future modelled ranges of the biome and 330 selected species. In the biome‐based approach, predictions of biome areal loss were overlayed with species richness data for the family Proteaceae to estimate extinction risk. In the species‐based approach, predictions of range dislocation (no overlap between current range and future projected range) were used as an indicator of extinction risk. A method of identifying local populations imminently threatened by climate change‐induced mortality is also described. Results A loss of Fynbos biome area of between 51% and 65% is projected by 2050 (depending on the climate scenario used), and roughly 10% of the endemic Proteaceae have ranges restricted to the area lost. Species range projections suggest that a third could suffer complete range dislocation by 2050, and only 5% could retain more than two thirds of their range. Projected changes to individual species ranges could be sufficient to detect climate change impacts within ten years. Main conclusions The biome‐level approach appears to underestimate the risk of species diversity loss from climate change impacts in the Fynbos Biome because many narrow range endemics suffer range dislocation throughout the biome, and not only in areas identified as biome contractions. We suggest that targeted vulnerable species could be monitored both for early warning signs of climate change and as empirical tests of predictions.     

Fine‐scale patterns of species and phylogenetic turnover in a global biodiversity hotspot: Implications for climate change vulnerability

Question: What is the relative importance of environmental and spatial factors for species compositional and phylogenetic turnover? Location: High‐rainfall zone of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods: Correlates of species compositional turnover were assessed using quadrat‐based floristic data, and establishing relationships with environmental and spatial factors using canonical correspondence analyses and Mantel tests. Between‐quadrat phylogenetic distance measures were computed and examined for correlations with environmental and spatial attributes. Processes structuring pa2t2terns of beta diversity were also evaluated within four broad floristic assemblages defined a priori. Results: Floristic diversity was strongly related to environmental attributes. A low significance of spatial variables on assemblage patterns suggested no evident effect of dispersal limitations. Species compositional turnover was especially high within the swamp and outcrop assemblage. Phylogenetic turnover was closely coupled to species compositional turnover, implying the occurrence of many locally endemic and phylogenetically relict taxa. Beta diversity patterns within assemblages were also significantly correlated with the local environment, and relevant correlates differed between floristic assemblage types. Conclusion: Phylogenetic diversity in the SWAFR high‐rainfall zone is clustered within edaphic microhabitats in a generally subdued landscape. A clustered rather than dispersed distribution of phylogenetic diversity increases the probability of significant plant diversity loss during periods of climate change. Climate change susceptibility of the region's flora is accordingly estimated to be high. We highlight the conservation significance of swamp and outcrops that are characterized by distinct hydrological properties and may provide refugial habitat for plant diversity during periods of moderate climate change.     

Time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time‐lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate–vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large‐scale vegetation–climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time‐lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate‐driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time‐lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate‐driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time‐lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time‐lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982–2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time‐lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.     

Unravelling biodiversity,evolution and threats to conservation in the Sahara‐Sahel

Deserts and arid regions are generally perceived as bare and rather homogeneous areas of low diversity. The Sahara is the largest warm desert in the world and together with the arid Sahel displays high topographical and climatic heterogeneity, and has experienced recent and strong climatic oscillations that have greatly shifted biodiversity distribution and community composition. The large size, remoteness and long‐term political instability of the Sahara‐Sahel, have limited knowledge on its biodiversity. However, over the last decade, there have been an increasing number of published scientific studies based on modern geomatic and molecular tools, and broad sampling of taxa of these regions. This review tracks trends in knowledge about biodiversity patterns, processes and threats across the Sahara‐Sahel, and anticipates needs for biodiversity research and conservation. Recent studies are changing completely the perception of regional biodiversity patterns. Instead of relatively low species diversity with distribution covering most of the region, studies now suggest a high rate of endemism and larger number of species, with much narrower and fragmented ranges, frequently limited to micro‐hotspots of biodiversity. Molecular‐based studies are also unravelling cryptic diversity associated with mountains, which together with recent distribution atlases, allows identifying integrative biogeographic patterns in biodiversity distribution. Mapping of multivariate environmental variation (at 1 km × 1 km resolution) of the region illustrates main biogeographical features of the Sahara‐Sahel and supports recently hypothesised dispersal corridors and refugia. Micro‐scale water‐features present mostly in mountains have been associated with local biodiversity hotspots. However, the distribution of available data on vertebrates highlights current knowledge gaps that still apply to a large proportion of the Sahara‐Sahel. Current research is providing insights into key evolutionary and ecological processes, including causes and timing of radiation and divergence for multiple taxa, and associating the onset of the Sahara with diversification processes for low‐mobility vertebrates. Examples of phylogeographic patterns are showing the importance of allopatric speciation in the Sahara‐Sahel, and this review presents a synthetic overview of the most commonly hypothesised diversification mechanisms. Studies are also stressing that biodiversity is threatened by increasing human activities in the region, including overhunting and natural resources prospection, and in the future by predicted global warming. A representation of areas of conflict, landmines, and natural resources extraction illustrates how human activities and regional insecurity are hampering biodiversity research and conservation. Although there are still numerous knowledge gaps for the optimised conservation of biodiversity in the region, a set of research priorities is provided to identify the framework data needed to support regional conservation planning.     

Ecological forecasts to inform near‐term management of threats to biodiversity

Ecosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near‐term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near‐term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near‐term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near‐term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change.     

Population expansion and breeding success of Bearded Vultures Gypaetus barbatus in the French Pyrenees: results from long‐term population monitoring

Based on monitoring of Bearded Vultures over 24 years in the French Pyrenees, we assessed factors explaining temporal and spatial variations in numbers and breeding performance. The number of territorial pairs increased throughout the study period from 16 in 1994 to 44 in 2017. No significant negative trends in mean productivity (fledglings per territorial pair) were detected with increasing population size. Colonization probability increased significantly with breeding population size the previous year and with the regular provision of supplementary food in the territory the winter when colonization occurred. Colonization of new territories simultaneously increased the distribution range and local densities, but we found no effect of number of near neighbours on productivity. Pairs having bred less than 5 years together had a much lower probability of laying clutches, and higher lay rates were observed inside or close to protected areas after accounting for pair‐bond length, so productivity of territories inside protected areas was significantly higher. Nest success decreased with advanced lay date and increased with winter food abundance. Nesting failures in the study area were frequently associated with harsh weather. Additionally, disturbance by human activities was the second most important identified cause of breeding failure. The probability of failing due to disturbance was higher in western areas (where breeding areas are more accessible to humans), outside protected areas, and has increased with time. After a failure due to disturbance, there was a significantly higher probability of not producing a clutch the following year as compared with pairs that had not failed or had failed due to other causes, indicating deferred effects of disturbance. Our results show the benefits of conservation management actions, such as implementation of protected areas or designed supplementary food programmes in winter, to help range expansion. On the other hand, we did not find a significant effect of winter supplementary food on productivity. Management of feeding sites should be adapted to more specific planning, being used only in areas where natural food availability is scarce, avoiding its use close to breeding sites when juveniles disperse, and targeted mainly to help range expansion. Our results also highlight the importance of maintaining or enhancing good populations of wild ungulates and regulating human activities around nesting sites of this threatened species.     

Use of predictive habitat modelling to assess the distribution and extent of the current protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats

Aim

To demonstrate the application of predictive species distribution modelling methods to habitat mapping and assessment of percentage area‐based conservation targets.

Location

The NE Atlantic deep sea (UK and Irish extended continental shelf limits).

Methods

MaxEnt modelling of three listed habitats (Lophelia pertusa (Linnaeus, 1758) reef (LpReef), Pheronema carpenteri (WyvilleThomson, 1869) aggregations (PcAggs) and Syringammina fragilissima (Brady, 1883) aggregations (SfAggs)), with some pre‐selection of variables by generalized additive modelling. Models are validated using repeated 70/30 build/test data splits using AUC and threshold‐dependent assessment methods. Predicted distribution maps are used to assess the adequacy of existing area closures for the protection of listed habitats and to assess percentage representation of each community within existing MPA networks.

Results

Model performances are rated as fair (LpReef), excellent (PcAggs) and good (SfAggs). Current closures are focused on the protection of cold‐water coral reef and incidentally capture some SfAggs suitable environments, but largely fail to protect PcAggs. Considering the wider network of MPAs in the study region, approximately 23% (LpReef), 2% (PcAggs) and 6% (SfAggs) of the area predicted as suitable for each habitat respectively is contained within an MPA.

Main conclusions

To date, decisions on area closures for the protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats have been based on maps of recorded presence of species that are taken as being indicative of that habitat. Predictive habitat modelling may provide a useful method of better estimating the extent of listed habitats, providing direction for future MPA establishment and a means of assessing MPA network effectiveness against politically set percentage targets. Given the coarse resolution of the model, percentages should be taken as maximal figures, with habitat occurrence likely to be less prevalent in reality.

     

Potential impact of genetically modified Lepidoptera‐resistant Brassica napus in biodiversity hotspots: Sicily as a theoretical model

The general increase of the cultivation and trade of Bt transgenic plants resistant to Lepidoptera pests raises concerns regarding the conservation of animal and plant biodiversity. Demand for biofuels has increased the cultivation and importation of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), including transgenic lines. In environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for its potential future cultivation as well as for food and feed uses, the impact on wild Brassicaeae relatives and on non‐target Lepidoptera should be assessed. Here we consider the potential exposure of butterflies as results of possible cultivation or naturalization of spilled seed in Sicily (Italy). Diurnal Lepidoptera, which are pollinators, can be exposed directly to the insecticidal proteins as larvae (mainly of Pieridae) through the host and through the pollen that can deposit on other host plants. Adults can be exposed via pollen and nectar. The flight periods of butterflies were recorded, and they were found to overlap for about 90% of the flowering period of B. napus for the majority of the species. In addition, B. napus has a high potential to hybridise with endemic taxa belonging to the B. oleracea group. This could lead to an exposure of non‐target Lepidoptera if introgression of the Bt gene into a wild population happens. A rank of the risk for butterflies and wild relatives of oilseed rape is given. We conclude that, in environmental risk assessments, attention should be paid to plant–insect interaction especially in a biodiversity hotspot such as Sicily.     

Changes in satellite‐derived spring vegetation green‐up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: a multimethod analysis

The change in spring phenology is recognized to exert a major influence on carbon balance dynamics in temperate ecosystems. Over the past several decades, several studies focused on shifts in spring phenology; however, large uncertainties still exist, and one understudied source could be the method implemented in retrieving satellite‐derived spring phenology. To account for this potential uncertainty, we conducted a multimethod investigation to quantify changes in vegetation green‐up date from 1982 to 2010 over temperate China, and to characterize climatic controls on spring phenology. Over temperate China, the five methods estimated that the vegetation green‐up onset date advanced, on average, at a rate of 1.3 ± 0.6 days per decade (ranging from 0.4 to 1.9 days per decade) over the last 29 years. Moreover, the sign of the trends in vegetation green‐up date derived from the five methods were broadly consistent spatially and for different vegetation types, but with large differences in the magnitude of the trend. The large intermethod variance was notably observed in arid and semiarid vegetation types. Our results also showed that change in vegetation green‐up date is more closely correlated with temperature than with precipitation. However, the temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation green‐up date became higher as precipitation increased, implying that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of vegetation spring phenology to change in temperature. This intricate linkage between spring phenology and precipitation must be taken into account in current phenological models which are mostly driven by temperature.