Choice of model and uncertainties of the gamma-ray and neutron dosimetry in relation to the chromosome aberrations data in Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Chromosome data pertaining to blood samples from 1,703 survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bombs, were utilized and different models for chromosome aberration dose response investigated. Models applied included those linear or linear-quadratic in equivalent dose. Models in which neutron and gamma doses were treated separately (LQ-L model) were also used, which included either the use of a low-dose limiting value for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons of R(0)=70+/-10 or an RBE value of R(1)=15+/-5 at 1 Gy. The use of R(1) incorporates the assumption that it is much better known than R(0), with much less associated uncertainty. In addition, error-reducing transformations were included which were found to result in a 50% reduction of the standard error associated with one of the model fit parameters which is associated with the proportion of cells with at least one aberration, at 1 Gy gamma dose. Several justifiable modifications to the DS86 doses according to recent nuclear retrospective dosimetry measurements were also investigated. Gamma-dose modifications were based on published thermoluminescence measurements of quartz samples from Hiroshima and on a tentative reduction for Nagasaki factory worker candidates by a factor of 0.6. Neutron doses in Hiroshima were modified to become consistent with recent fast neutron activation data based on copper samples. The applied dose modifications result in an increase in non-linearity of the dose-response curve for Hiroshima, and a corresponding decrease in that for Nagasaki, an effect found to be most pronounced for the LQ-L models investigated. As a result the difference in the dose-response curves observed for both cities based on DS86 doses, is somewhat reduced but cannot be entirely explained by the dose modifications applied. The extent to which the neutrons contribute to chromosome aberration induction in Hiroshima depends significantly on the model used. The LQ-L model including an R(1) value of 15 at 1 Gy which is recommended here, would predict between 10% and 20% of the observed chromosome aberrations to be due to neutrons, at all doses. Because of the good agreement between DS86 predictions and the results of retrospective gamma and neutron dosimetry, the modifications applied here to DS86 doses are relatively small. Consequently, the choices of model and RBE values were found to be the major factors dominating the interpretation of the chromosome data for Hiroshima and Nagasaki, with the dose modifications resulting in a smaller influence.     

The F value for chromosome aberrations in atomic bomb survivors does not provide evidence for a primary contribution of neutrons to the dose in Hiroshima.

Brenner and Sachs (Radiat. Res. 140, 134-142, 1994) proposed that the ratio of interchromosomal to intrachromosomal exchanges, termed the F value, can be a cytogenetic fingerprint of exposure to radiations of different linear energy transfer (LET). Using published data, they suggested that F values are over 10 for low-LET radiations and approximately 6 for high-LET radiations. Subsequently, as F values for atomic bomb survivors were reported to be around 6, Brenner suggested that the biological effects of atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima are due primarily to neutrons. However, the F values used for the survivors were means from individuals exposed to various doses. As the F-value hypothesis predicts a radiation fingerprint at low doses, we analyzed our own data for the survivors in relation to dose. G-banding data for the survivors showed F values varying from 5 to 8 at DS86 doses of 0.2 to 5 Gy in Hiroshima and around 6 in Nagasaki with no evidence of a difference between the two cities. The results are consistent with our in vitro data that the F values are invariably around 6 for X and gamma rays at doses of 0.5 to 2 Gy as well as two types of fission-spectrum neutrons at doses of about 0.2 to 1 Gy. Thus, apart from a possible effect at even lower doses, current data do not provide evidence to support the proposition that the biological effects of atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima are caused mainly by neutrons.     

Radiation-related ophthalmological changes and aging among Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors: a reanalysis.

The relationship of ionizing radiation to the age-related ophthalmological findings of the 1978-1980 ophthalmological examination of A-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has been reanalyzed using DS86 eye organ dose estimates. The main purpose of this reevaluation was to determine whether age and radiation exposure, as measured using the recently revised dosimetry information (DS86), have an additive, synergistic, or antagonistic effect. The data in this study are limited to axial opacities and posterior subcapsular changes, for which a definite radiation-induced effect has been observed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors. The best model fitting for axial opacities gives a significant positive effect for both linear dose and linear age-related regression coefficients and a significant negative effect for an interaction between radiation dose and age. Such a negative interaction implies an antagonistic effect in that the relative risks in relation to radiation exposure doses become smaller with an increase in age. On the other hand, the best-fitting relationship for posterior subcapsular changes suggested a linear-quadratic dose and linear age-related effect. The estimate of the quadratic dose coefficient shows a highly negative correlation with age, but the negative quadratic dose term is extremely small and is of little biological significance.     

Gamma-ray exposure from neutron-induced radionuclides in soil in Hiroshima and Nagasaki based on DS02 calculations

As a result of joint efforts by Japanese, US and German scientists, the Dosimetry System 2002 (DS02) was developed as a new dosimetry system, to evaluate individual radiation dose to atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Although the atomic bomb radiation consisted of initial radiation and residual radiation, only initial radiation was reevaluated in DS02 because, for most survivors in the life span study group, the residual dose was negligible compared to the initial dose. It was reported, however, that there were individuals who entered the city at the early stage after the explosion and experienced hemorrhage, diarrhea, etc., which were symptoms of acute radiation syndrome. In this study, external exposure due to radionuclides induced in soil by atomic bomb neutrons was reevaluated based on DS02 calculations, as a function of both the distance from the hypocenters and the elapsed time after the explosions. As a result, exposure rates of 6 and 4 Gy h(-1) were estimated at the hypocenter at 1 min after the explosion in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. These exposure rates decreased rapidly by a factor of 1,000 1 day later, and by a factor of 1 million 1 week later. Maximum cumulative exposure from the time of explosion was 1.2 and 0.6 Gy at the hypocenters in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. Induced radiation decreased also with distance from the hypocenters, by a factor of about 10 at 500 m and a factor of three to four hundreds at 1,000 m. Consequently, a significant exposure due to induced radiation is considered feasible to those who entered the area closer to a distance of 1,000 m from the hypocenters, within one week after the bombing.     

An analysis of various aspects of atomic bomb dose estimation at RERF using data on acute radiation symptoms

The dose-response curves for acute radiation symptoms reported by atomic bomb survivors are compared by dose estimation method (the method used to calculate the transmission factor), shielding category, and city. Circular symmetry is also investigated. It is found that response rates for acute symptoms differ considerably by dose estimation method and shielding category even after controlling for both gamma and neutron exposure as well as for city, sex, and age at the time of the bomb. One explanation of these results is that the doses of survivors in Japanese type houses estimated by the nine parameter method are subject to less random measurement error, while doses of those survivors who were in the open and shielded by terrain, who were totally shielded by concrete buildings, and who were in factories are subject to especially large random errors. The degree to which systematic bias contributes to these differences could not be determined. These results have important implications for comparisons between cities since Nagasaki includes a far greater proportion of survivors in shielding categories showing weak dose-response relationships than does Hiroshima. The hypothesis that doses might be higher in the westerly direction in Hiroshima is not supported by acute effects analyses, but excess acute effects are found in the north of Hiroshima.     

Modeling the low-LET dose-response of BCR-ABL formation: predicting stem cell numbers from A-bomb data

Formation of the BCR-ABL chromosomal translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11) is essential to the genesis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). An interest in the dose-response of radiation induced CML therefore leads naturally to an interest in the dose-response of BCR-ABL formation. To predict the BCR-ABL dose-response to low-linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation, three models valid over three different dose ranges are examined: the first for doses greater than 80 Gy, the second for doses less than 5 Gy and the third for doses greater than 2 Gy. The first of the models, due to Holley and Chatterjee, ignores the accidental binary eurejoining of DNA double-strand break (DSB) free ends ('eurejoining' refers to the accidental restitution of DSB free ends with their own proper mates). As a result, the model is valid only in the limit of high doses. The second model is derived directly from cytogenetic data. This model has the attractive feature that it implicitly accounts for single-track effects at low doses. The third model, based on the Sax-Markov binary eurejoining/misrejoining (SMBE) algorithm, does not account for single-track effects and is therefore limited to moderate doses greater than approximately 2 Gy. Comparing the second model to lifetime excess CML risks expected after 1 Gy, estimates of the number of hematopoietic stem cells capable of causing CML were obtained for male and female atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The stem cell number estimates lie in the range of 5 x 10(7)-3 x 10(8) cells.     

Stable chromosome aberrations in atomic bomb survivors: results from 25 years of investigation

Frequencies of stable chromosome aberrations from more than 3,000 atomic bomb survivors were used to examine the nature of the radiation dose response. The end point was the proportion of cells with at least one translocation or inversion detected in Giemsa-stained cultures of approximately 100 lymphocytes per person. The statistical methods allow for both imprecision of individual dose estimates and extra-binomial variation. A highly significant and nonlinear dose response was seen. The shape of the dose response was concave upward for doses below 1.5 Sv but exhibited some leveling off at higher doses. This curvature was similar for the two cities, with a crossover dose (i.e. the ratio of the linear coefficient to the quadratic coefficient) of 1.7 Sv (95% CI 0.9, 4). The low-dose slopes for the two cities differed significantly: 6.6% per Sv (95% CI 5.5, 8.4) in Hiroshima and 3.7% (95% CI 2.6, 4.9) in Nagasaki. This difference was reduced considerably, but not eliminated, when the comparison was limited to people who were exposed in houses or tenements. Nagasaki survivors exposed in factories, as well as people in either city who were outside with little or no shielding, had a lower dose response than those exposed in houses. This suggests that doses for Nagasaki factory worker survivors may be overestimated by the DS86, apparently by about 60%. Even though factory workers constitute about 20% of Nagasaki survivors with dose estimates in the range of 0.5 to 2 Sv, calculations indicate that the dosimetry problems for these people have little impact on cancer risk estimates for Nagasaki.     

Neutron versus Á-ray risk estimates

While it is recognized that neutrons contributed to the excess cancer incidence and mortality among the atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima, there is no possibility to deduce the magnitude of this contribution from the data. This remains true even if the neutron doses in the dosimetry system DS86 are corrected upwards in line with recent neutron activation measurements. In spite of this fact, important information can be obtained in the form of an inverse relation of the risk coefficients for γ-rays and neutrons. Such an interrelation must apply because the observed excess incidence or mortality is made up of a γ-ray and a neutron component; increased attribution to neutrons decreases the attribution to photons. Computations with the uncorrected and the corrected DS86 are performed for the mortality and the incidence of solid tumors combined. They refer to doses up to 2 Gy and employ the constant relative risk model and a linear-quadratic dose dependence with variable ratio – the neutron relative biological effectiveness (RBE) at low doses – of the linear component for neutrons and γ-rays. In line with past analyses, no quadratic component is obtained with the uncorrected DS86, but it is seen, even in these calculations, that the assumption of increased neutron RBEs does not translate into proportional increases of the risk coefficients of neutrons, because it leads to substantially reduced risk estimates for γ-rays. Calculations with the corrected dosimetry bring out this reciprocity even more clearly. High values of the neutron RBE reduce – in line with recent suggestions by Rossi and Zaider – the risk estimates for γ-rays substantially. Even a purely quadratic dose relation for γ-rays is consistent with the data; it requires no major increase of the nominal risk coefficients for neutrons over the currently assumed values. The cancer data from Hiroshima can still provide `prudent' risk estimates for photons, but with the corrected DS86, they do not prove that there is a linear component in the dose dependence for photons. Received: 20 January 1997 / Accepted in revised form: 14 March 1997     

Gamma-ray thermoluminescence measurements: a record of fallout deposition in Hiroshima?

In certain Hiroshima neighborhoods, radiation measurements using thermoluminescence dosimetry (TLD) exceed what can be explained by the initial gamma-ray doses and uncertainties from the Dosimetry System 2002 (DS02). This problem was not previously recognized as being isolated to certain parts of that city. The ratio between TLD measurements and DS02 dose calculations for gamma rays appear to grow larger than unity up to more than three with increasing ground range, but closer examination shows the excess TLD dose (0.1, 0.2, or possibly up to 0.8 Gray) is correlated with certain neighborhoods and could be due to radioactive fallout. At Nagasaki, the TLD measurements do not show this same excess, probably because there were no TLD measurements taken more than 800 m downwind (eastward) from the Nagasaki hypocenter, so that any small excess TLD dose was masked by larger initial gamma-ray doses of 25–80 Gray in the few downwind samples. The DS02 Report had noted many measurements lower than the DS02 calculation for several Nagasaki TLD samples, independent of ground range. This was explained as being the result of previously unaccounted urban shielding which was observed from Nagasaki pre-bomb aerial photos. However, the Hiroshima excess TLD dose issue was not resolved. If the excess TLD doses at Hiroshima are an indication of fallout, it may be possible to use additional TLD studies to make better estimates of the locations and radiation doses to survivors from the fallout after the bombings at both cities.     

An estimate of the magnitude of random errors in the DS86 dosimetry from data on chromosome aberrations and severe epilation

An analysis of the proportion of cells with chromosome aberrations in cultured blood lymphocytes from A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveals that the dose-response relationship using DS86 assigned dose is significantly steeper in the subsample of individuals who reported severe epilation after the bombings than in those who did not report severe epilation. This effect is due either to random errors in the DS86 dose assignments or to individual differences in sensitivity to radiation, or to both. In this paper, working within a class of dosimetry error models, we estimate the magnitude of random dosimetry errors which would be required to account for all of the difference in the observed dose response between people who did and did not report severe epilation under the assumption that random dosimetry error is the only cause of the effect. We conclude that random dosimetry errors in the range 45 to 50% of true dose are necessary to explain completely the difference in dose response between the two epilation groups. We discuss evidence that the contribution of individual differences in radiation sensitivity to the observed epilation effect is likely to be small, so that random dosimetry errors may be the major cause of this effect.     

Effects of radiation on the longitudinal trends of total serum cholesterol levels in the atomic bomb survivors.

The effects of radiation on the long-term trends of the total serum cholesterol levels of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors were examined using data collected in the Adult Health Study over a 28-year period (1958-1986). The growth-curve method was used to model the longitudinal age-dependent changes in cholesterol levels. For each sex, temporal trends of cholesterol levels were characterized with respect to age, body mass index, city and birth year. We then examined whether the temporal trends differed by radiation dose. We showed that the mean growth curve of cholesterol levels for the irradiated subjects were significantly higher than that for the unirradiated subjects, and that the increase was greater for women than for men. No difference in dose response was detected between Hiroshima and Nagasaki. An increased mean level of cholesterol was evident for irradiated women in general, but a notable increase was apparent in males only for the youngest birth cohort of 1935-1945. The difference in the mean cholesterol levels between the irradiated and unirradiated subjects diminished past 70 years of age. It is not known whether this is due to natural progression or is an artifact of nonrandom variation in the rate of participation in the examinations. The maximum predicted increase at 1 Gy for women occurred at age 52 years for the 1930 cohort: 2.5 mg/dl (95% CI 1.6-3.3 mg/dl) for Hiroshima and 2.3 mg/dl (95% CI 1.5-3.1 mg/dl) for Nagasaki. The corresponding increase for men occurred at age 29 years for the 1940 cohort: 1.6 mg/dl (95% CI 0.4-2.8) for Hiroshima and 1.4 mg/dl (95% CI 0.3-2.6) for Nagasaki. Controlling for cigarette smoking did not alter the dose-response relationship. Although the difference in the mean growth curves of the irradiated and unirradiated groups was statistically significant, there was a considerable overlap in the individual growth curves of the two groups. The significant sex difference and the greater magnitude of radiation effects in women suggest that hormonal changes resulting from radiation exposure, such as accelerated menopause, is an area worth investigating to delineate the mechanisms underlying the increased cholesterol levels of the irradiated female subjects. This increase may also partially explain the increased rate of coronary heart disease seen in the atomic bomb survivors.     

Reassessment of gamma doses from the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Reassessment of gamma doses from the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki has been carried out with thermoluminescent measurements of ceramic materials, such as bricks and decorative tiles, which were collected from buildings that remain as they were at the time of the explosions. The thermoluminescent measurements were performed using thermoluminescent dating techniques generally used in archaeology. Annual background dose rates from natural radionuclides in the ceramic materials and from environmental radiation including cosmic rays were determined with commercially available thermoluminescent detectors. A time-zero point at the original firing of the ceramic materials was estimated from the age of the buildings given in "the register book." Total background dose was evaluated by multiplying the period between the time-zero point and the time of measurement by the annual dose rate. The resultant gamma doses in Hiroshima and Nagasaki are given as a function of distance from ground zero and are compared with the DS86 (Dosimetry System 1986) and the T65D (Tentative 1965 Dose) gamma doses.     

Prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus antibody and chronic liver disease among atomic bomb survivors

To investigate whether exposure to atomic bomb radiation altered the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection or accelerated the progress toward chronic hepatitis after HCV infection, the seropositivity of antibody to hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV) was determined for 6,121 participants in the Adult Health Study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The seropositivity of anti-HCV antibody was 2.5 times higher among those with a history of blood transfusion and 1.2 times higher among those with a family history of liver disease, whereas acupuncture showed no association with anti-HCV. Although the prevalence of anti-HCV was lower for survivors with positive dose estimates than for those with 0 dose (relative prevalence 0.84, P = 0.022), there was no evidence of a smooth dose-response relationship. However, these data suggested that the radiation dose response for chronic liver disease among HCV antibody-positive survivors may be greater than that among HCV antibody-negative survivors (slope ratio 20). In conclusion, no dose-response relationship was found between anti-HCV positivity and radiation dose; a possible increase in the radiation dose response of chronic liver disease among anti-HCV-positive individuals was found. Thus radiation exposure may accelerate the progress of chronic liver disease associated with hepatitis C virus infection.     

Measurements of fast neutrons in Hiroshima by use of 39Ar

The survivors of the A-bomb explosions over Hiroshima and Nagasaki were exposed to a mixed neutron and gamma radiation field. To validate the high-energy portion of the neutron field and thus the neutron dose to the survivors, a method is described that allows retrospective assessment of the fast neutrons from the A-bombs. This is accomplished by the extraction of the noble gas argon from biotites separated from Hiroshima granite samples, and then the detection of the (39)Ar activity that was produced by the capture of the fast neutrons on potassium. Adjusted to the year 1945, activities measured in the first samples taken at distances of 94, 818, 992, and 1,173 m from the hypocenter were 6.9+/-0.2, 0.32+/-0.01, 0.14+/-0.02, and 0.09+/-0.01 mBq/g K, respectively. All signals were significantly above detector background and show low uncertainties. Considering their uncertainties they agree with the calculated (39)Ar activation in the samples, based on the most recent dosimetry system DS02. It is concluded that this method can be used to investigate samples obtained from large distances in Hiroshima, where previous data on fast neutrons are characterized by considerable uncertainties. Additionally, the method can be used to reconstruct the fast neutron fluence in Nagasaki, where no experimental data exist.     

Search for mutations altering protein charge and/or function in children of atomic bomb survivors: final report.

A sample of (1) children whose parents had been proximally exposed (i.e., less than 2,000 m from the hypocenter) at the time of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and (2) a suitable comparison group have been examined for the occurrence of mutations altering the electrophoretic mobility or activity of a series of 30 proteins. The examination of the equivalent of 667,404 locus products in the children of proximally exposed persons yielded three mutations altering electrophoretic mobility; the corresponding figure for the comparison group was three mutations in 466,881 tests. The examination of a subset of 60,529 locus products for loss of enzyme activity in the children of proximally exposed persons yielded one mutation; no mutations were encountered in 61,741 determinations on the children of the comparison group. When these two series are compared, the mutation rate observed in the children of proximally exposed persons is thus 0.60 x 10(-5)/locus/generation, with 95% confidence intervals between 0.2 and 1.5 x 10(-5), and that in the comparison children is 0.64 x 10(-5)/locus/generation, with 95% intervals between 0.1 and 1.9 x 10(-5). The average conjoint gonad doses for the proximally exposed parents are estimated to be 0.437 Gy of gamma radiation and 0.002 Gy of neutron radiation. If a relative biological effectiveness of 20 is assigned to the neutron radiation, the combined total gonad dose for the parents becomes 0.477 Sv. (Organ absorbed doses are expressed in gray [1 Gy = 100 rad]; where dose is a mixture of gamma and neutron radiation, it is necessary because of the differing relative biological effectiveness of gamma and neutron radiation to express the combined gamma-neutron gonad exposures in sieverts [1 Sv = 100 rem]).     

Neutron-induced 63Ni in copper samples from Hiroshima and Nagasaki: a comprehensive presentation of results obtained at the Munich Maier-Leibnitz Laboratory

Those inhabitants of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were affected by the A-bomb explosions, were exposed to a mixed neutron and gamma radiation field. Few years later about 120,000 survivors of both cities were selected, and since then radiation-induced late effects such as leukemia and solid tumors are being investigated in this cohort. When the present study was initiated, the fast neutron fluences that caused the neutron doses of these survivors had never been determined experimentally. In principle, this would have been possible if radioisotopes produced by fast neutrons from the A-bomb explosions had been detected in samples from Hiroshima and Nagasaki at distances where the inhabitants survived. However, no suitable radioisotope had so far been identified. As a contribution to a large international effort to re-evaluate the A-bomb dosimetry, the concentration of the radionuclide (63)Ni (half-life 100.1 years) has been measured in copper samples from Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These measurements were mainly performed at the Maier-Leibnitz-Laboratory in Munich, Germany, by means of accelerator mass spectrometry. Because the (63)Ni had been produced in these samples by fast A-bomb neutrons via the reaction (63)Cu(n,p)(63)Ni, these measurements allow direct experimental validation of calculated neutron doses to the members of the LSS cohort, for the first time. The results of these efforts have already been published in a compact form. A more detailed discussion of the methodical aspects of these measurements and their results are given in the present paper. Eight copper samples that had been significantly exposed to fast neutrons from the Hiroshima A-bomb explosion were investigated. In general, measured (63)Ni concentrations decreased in these samples with increasing distance to the hypocenter, from 4 x 10(6 ) (63)Ni nuclei per gram copper at 391 m, to about 1 x 10(5 ) (63)Ni nuclei per gram copper at about 1,400 m. Additional measurements performed on three large-distant copper samples from Hiroshima (distance to the hypocenter 1,880-7,500 m) and on three large-distant copper samples from Nagasaki (distance to the hypocenter 3,931-4,428 m) that were not exposed significantly to A-bomb neutrons, suggest a typical background concentration of about 8 x 10(4 ) (63)Ni nuclei per gram copper. If the observed background is accounted for, the results are consistent with state-of-the-art neutron transport calculations for Hiroshima, in particular for those distances where the victims survived and were included in the life span study cohort.     

Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence and radiation dose from fallout

Settlements near the Semipalatinsk Test Site (SNTS) in northeastern Kazakhstan were exposed to radioactive fallout during 1949-1962. Thyroid disease prevalence among 2994 residents of eight villages was ascertained by ultrasound screening. Malignancy was determined by cytopathology. Individual thyroid doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed from fallout deposition patterns, residential histories and diet, including childhood milk consumption. Point estimates of individual external and internal dose averaged 0.04 Gy (range 0-0.65) and 0.31 Gy (0-9.6), respectively, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.46. Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence was 18% and 39% among males and females, respectively. It was significantly and independently associated with both external and internal dose, the main study finding. The estimated relative biological effectiveness of internal compared to external radiation dose was 0.33, with 95% confidence bounds of 0.09-3.11. Prevalence of papillary cancer was 0.9% and was not significantly associated with radiation dose. In terms of excess relative risk per unit dose, our dose-response findings for nodule prevalence are comparable to those from populations exposed to medical X rays and to acute radiation from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings.     

Intercomparison study on 152Eu gamma ray and 36Cl AMS measurements for development of the new Hiroshima–Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Dosimetry System 2002 (DS02)

In the process of developing a new dosimetry system for atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki (DS02), an intercomparison study between (152)Eu and (36)Cl measurements was proposed, to reconcile the discrepancy previously observed in the Hiroshima data between measurements and calculations of thermal neutron activation products. Nine granite samples, exposed to the atomic-bomb radiation in Hiroshima within 1,200 m of the hypocenter, as well as mixed standard solutions containing known amounts of europium and chlorine that were neutron-activated by a (252)Cf source, were used for the intercomparison. Gamma-ray spectrometry for (152)Eu was carried out with ultra low-background Ge detectors at the Ogoya Underground Laboratory, Kanazawa University, while three laboratories participated in the (36)Cl measurement using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS): The Technical University of Munich, Germany, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA and the University of Tsukuba, Japan. Measured values for the mixed standard solutions showed good agreement among the participant laboratories. They also agreed well with activation calculations, using the neutron fluences monitored during the (252)Cf irradiation, and the corresponding activation cross-sections taken from the JENDL-3.3 library. The measured-to-calculated ratios obtained were 1.02 for (152)Eu and 0.91-1.02 for (36)Cl, respectively. Similarly, the results of the granite intercomparison indicated good agreement with the DS02 calculation for these samples. An average measured-to-calculated ratio of 0.98 was obtained for all granite intercomparison measurements. The so-called neutron discrepancy that was previously observed and that which included increasing measured-to-calculated ratios for thermal neutron activation products for increasing distances beyond 1,000 m from the hypocenter was not seen in the results of the intercomparison study. The previously claimed discrepancy could be explained by insufficient understanding of the measured data.     

The observed relationship between the occurrence of acute radiation effects and leukemia mortality among A-bomb survivors

In an analysis of a follow-up study of a fixed population of 73,330 atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the slope of an estimated dose response between ionizing radiation and leukemia mortality was found to be steeper (P less than 0.002), by a factor of 2.4, among those who reported epilation within 60 days of the bombings, compared to those who did not experience this sign of acute radiation exposure. The strength of this empirical finding as evidence of biological association in individual radiosensitivity for these two end points is studied here. The major factor complicating the interpretation of this finding as evidence of such an association is the degree of imprecision of the radiation dosimetry system used in assignment of radiation doses to the A-bomb survivors. Using models recently suggested for dealing with dosimetry errors in epidemiological analysis of the A-bomb survivor data, the sensitivity of the apparent association between leukemia mortality and severe epilation to the assumed level of dosimetry error is investigated.     

Radioepidemiology in the aftermath of the nuclear program of the former Soviet Union: Unique lessons to be learnt

  The military and civilian nuclear activities in the former Soviet Union led to unique exposures and resulted in high cumulative doses in several populations. In comparison to the atomic bomb survivors, at present the most important cohort in radiation epidemiology, collective and individual doses received by early workers in the plutonium production facilities at Mayak (Chelyabinsk), Techa River residents downstream of Mayak, populations downwind of the Semipalatinsk test site, and subpopulations of Chernobyl victims surpass the Hiroshima/Nagasaki experience in most cases. Even more importantly, the dose rates cover the full range of exposures relevant for radiation protection, i.e., acute to year-long chronic exposures from environmental contamination and bone seeking radionuclides. Parallel to the humanitarian need to mitigate health effects from these exposures, the unique opportunities for research on radiation risks related to low dose rate and chronic radiation have to be explored. Increased efforts by the global radiation research community are needed to address the many questions which cannot be answered by the acutely irradiated survivors of Hiroshima/Nagasaki. Specific attention needs to be drawn to the validation of available exposure and health records and to dose reconstruction which must include dietary sources of exposure. Preliminary intercomparison and validation exercises indicate potentially large sources of error, e.g., due to uncertainties in the reconstruction of early exposures and effects and due to continuing incorporation. Received: 29 February 1996 / Accepted in revised form: 6 March 1996