Optimal surveillance strategy for invasive species management when surveys stop after detection

Invasive species are a cause for concern in natural and economic systems and require both monitoring and management. There is a trade‐off between the amount of resources spent on surveying for the species and conducting early management of occupied sites, and the resources that are ultimately spent in delayed management at sites where the species was present but undetected. Previous work addressed this optimal resource allocation problem assuming that surveys continue despite detection until the initially planned survey effort is consumed. However, a more realistic scenario is often that surveys stop after detection (i.e., follow a “removal” sampling design) and then management begins. Such an approach will indicate a different optimal survey design and can be expected to be more efficient. We analyze this case and compare the expected efficiency of invasive species management programs under both survey methods. We also evaluate the impact of mis‐specifying the type of sampling approach during the program design phase. We derive analytical expressions that optimize resource allocation between monitoring and management in surveillance programs when surveys stop after detection. We do this under a scenario of unconstrained resources and scenarios where survey budget is constrained. The efficiency of surveillance programs is greater if a “removal survey” design is used, with larger gains obtained when savings from early detection are high, occupancy is high, and survey costs are not much lower than early management costs at a site. Designing a surveillance program disregarding that surveys stop after detection can result in an efficiency loss. Our results help guide the design of future surveillance programs for invasive species. Addressing program design within a decision‐theoretic framework can lead to a better use of available resources. We show how species prevalence, its detectability, and the benefits derived from early detection can be considered.     

Necessity and reality of monitoring threatened European vascular plants

Species monitoring is the regular observation and recording of changes in status and trend of species in a certain territory. The primary purpose of monitoring is to collect information that can be used to examine the outcomes of management actions and to guide management decisions. Here, we analyze plant species monitoring to provide a first overview on efforts made to monitor trends in vascular plant biodiversity in Europe. Our study is based on an assessment of 63 plant monitoring schemes from Europe (collected into a database “DaEuMon”), and 33 schemes found with literature screening. Altogether, the monitoring schemes cover 354 vascular plant species, of which 69 are listed in Annex II of the EU Habitats Directive (= EU protected species; Annex II includes 420 species). In most cases, an EU protected plant species occurs in 3 countries but is monitored in only 1 country. Scientific interest was the main reason for launching a monitoring scheme in 21% of the schemes from the database, but in 58% of the schemes from the literature survey. The current schemes collect insufficient data particularly on the dynamics of the extent and distribution pattern of species. We conclude that planning to publish monitoring data when designing a scheme would improve the quality and general effect of monitoring programs. The needs to cover the taxonomic diversity and the integration of different scales, as well as the inclusion of monitoring in the context of different types of sustainable management would require a strong emphasis in the development of monitoring schemes.     

How to ensure threatened species monitoring leads to threatened species conservation

Monitoring is essential for effective conservation and management of threatened species and ecological communities. However, more often than not, threatened species monitoring is poorly implemented, meaning that conservation decisions are not informed by the best available knowledge. We outline challenges and provide best‐practice guidelines for threatened species monitoring, informed by the diverse perspectives of 26 conservation managers and scientists from a range of organisations with expertise across Australian species and ecosystems. Our collective expertise synthesised five key principles that aim to enhance the design, implementation and outcomes of threatened species monitoring. These principles are (i) integrate monitoring with management; (ii) design fit‐for‐purpose monitoring programs; (iii) engage people and organisations; (iv) ensure good data management; and (v) communicate the value of monitoring. We describe how to incorporate these principles into existing frameworks to improve current and future monitoring programs. Effective monitoring is essential to inform appropriate management and enable better conservation outcomes for our most vulnerable species and ecological communities.     

When Should Communities and Conservationists Monitor Exploited Resources?

Both conservationists and harvesters may be willing to contribute to participatory monitoring of exploited species. However, this can be costly and stakeholders need to choose whether monitoring programs or other alternatives, such as a moratorium or unmonitored exploitation, meet their objectives most efficiently. We discuss when, and how much, stakeholders may be willing to contribute to monitoring of exploited resources. We predict that communities’ contributions will usually be much less than the annual value of the harvest, and will be affected by their dependency upon it; their discount rate; its cultural importance, vulnerability to overexploitation and amenability to monitoring. ‘Efficient’ conservationists’ willingness to contribute should be similar to that of communities’, since monitoring and management programs must compete with compensated moratoria. The combined willingness to contribute of both stakeholder groups will usually be much less than twice the annual revenue from the resource. Applying this framework to a case-study of crayfish harvesting in Madagascar, we find that the total willingness to contribute to monitoring is likely to be insufficient to support conventional monitoring efforts. We conclude that conservation planners must be realistic about what stakeholders are willing to contribute to monitoring programmes and consider low cost methods or negotiated moratoria.     

Can ecological land classification increase the utility of vegetation monitoring data?

Vegetation dynamics in rangelands and other ecosystems are known to be mediated by topoedaphic properties. Vegetation monitoring programs, however, often do not consider the impact of soils and other sources of landscape heterogeneity on the temporal patterns observed. Ecological sites (ES) comprise a land classification system based on soil, topographic, and climate variations that can be readily applied by land managers to classify topoedaphic properties at monitoring locations. We used a long-term (>40 y) vegetation record from southeastern Arizona, USA to test the utility of an ES classification for refining interpretations of monitoring data in an area of relatively subtle soil differences. We focused on two phenomena important to rangeland management in the southeastern Arizona region: expansion of the native tree velvet mesquite (Prosopis velutina Woot.) and spread of the introduced perennial grass Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees). Specifically, we sought to determine if a quantitative, ES-specific analysis of the long-term record would (1) improve detection of changes in plant species having heightened ecological or management importance and (2) further clarify topoedaphic effects on vegetation trajectories. We found that ES class membership was a significant factor explaining spatiotemporal variation in velvet mesquite canopy cover, Lehmann lovegrass basal cover, and Lehmann lovegrass density measurements. In addition, we observed that the potential magnitude of velvet mesquite and Lehmann lovegrass increases varied substantially among ES classes. Our study brings attention to a practical land management tool that might be called upon to increase the effectiveness of vegetation-based indicators of ecosystem change.     

Potentials for monitoring gene level biodiversity: using Sweden as an example

Programs for monitoring biological diversity over time are needed to detect changes that can constitute threats to biological resources. The convention on biological diversity regards effective monitoring as necessary to halt the ongoing erosion of biological variation, and such programs at the ecosystem and species levels are enforced in several countries. However, at the level of genetic biodiversity, little has been accomplished, and monitoring programs need to be developed. We define “conservation genetic monitoring” to imply the systematic, temporal study of genetic variation within particular species/populations with the aim to detect changes that indicate compromise or loss of such diversity. We also (i) identify basic starting points for conservation genetic monitoring, (ii) review the availability of such information using Sweden as an example, (iii) suggest categories of species for pilot monitoring programs, and (iv) identify some scientific and logistic issues that need to be addressed in the context of conservation genetic monitoring. We suggest that such programs are particularly warranted for species subject to large scale enhancement and harvest—operations that are known to potentially alter the genetic composition and reduce the variability of populations.     

Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza: entry pathways into North America via bird migration

Given the possibility of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza arriving in North America and monitoring programs that have been established to detect and track it, we review intercontinental movements of birds. We divided 157 bird species showing regular intercontinental movements into four groups based on patterns of movement-one of these groups (breed Holarctic, winter Eurasia) fits well with the design of the monitoring programs (i.e., western Alaska), but the other groups have quite different movement patterns, which would suggest the importance of H5N1 monitoring along the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf coasts of North America.     

Space‐for‐time is not necessarily a substitution when monitoring the distribution of pelagic fishes in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta

Occupancy models are often used to analyze long‐term monitoring data to better understand how and why species redistribute across dynamic landscapes while accounting for incomplete capture. However, this approach requires replicate detection/non‐detection data at a sample unit and many long‐term monitoring programs lack temporal replicate surveys. In such cases, it has been suggested that surveying subunits within a larger sample unit may be an efficient substitution (i.e., space‐for‐time substitution). Still, the efficacy of fitting occupancy models using a space‐for‐time substitution has not been fully explored and is likely context dependent. Herein, we fit occupancy models to Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) catch data collected by two different monitoring programs that use the same sampling gear in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta, USA. We demonstrate how our inferences concerning the distribution of these species changes when using a space‐for‐time substitution. Specifically, we found the probability that a sample unit was occupied was much greater when using a space‐for‐time substitution, presumably due to the change in the spatial scale of our inferences. Furthermore, we observed that as the spatial scale of our inferences increased, our ability to detect environmental effects on system dynamics was obscured, which we suspect is related to the tradeoffs associated with spatial grain and extent. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering how the unique characteristics of monitoring programs influences inferences, which has broad implications for how to appropriately leverage existing long‐term monitoring data to understand the distribution of species.     

Look before you treat: increasing the cost effectiveness of eradication programs with aerial surveillance

Most successful invasive species eradication programs were applied to invasions confined to a small area. Invasions occupying large areas at a low density can potentially be eradicated if individual infestations can be found at affordable cost. The development of low cost aerial surveillance methods allows for larger areas to be monitored but such methods often have lower sensitivity than conventional surveillance methods, making their cost-effectiveness uncertain. Here, we consider the cost-effectiveness of including a new aerial monitoring method in Australia’s largest eradication program, the campaign to eradicate red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta). The program previously relied on higher sensitivity ground surveillance and broadcast treatment. The high cost of those methods restricted the total area that could be managed with available resources below the level required to prevent ongoing expansion of the invasion. By increasing the area that can be monitored and thereby improving the targeting of treatment and ground surveillance, we estimate that remote sensing could substantially reduce eradication costs despite the method’s low sensitivity. The development of low cost monitoring methods could potentially lead to substantially improved management of invasive species.     

Monitoring large herbivore diversity at different scales: comparing direct and indirect methods

Monitoring of large herbivores is central to research and management activities in many protected areas. Monitoring programs were originally developed to estimate (trends in) population sizes of individual species. However, emphasis is shifting increasingly towards conservation of diversity and communities instead of individual species, as a growing literature shows the importance of herbivore diversity for ecosystem functioning. We argue that the design of monitoring programs has not yet been adapted well to this new conservation paradigm. Using large herbivore census data from Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa, we studied how monitoring methodology (observational counts vs. dung counts) and spatial scale interact in influencing estimates of large herbivore species richness and diversity. Dung counts resulted in higher herbivore species richness and diversity estimates than direct observational counts, especially at finer monitoring resolutions (grid cells smaller than 25 km²). At monitoring resolutions coarser than 25 km² both methods gave comparable diversity estimates. The methods also yielded different spatial diversity estimates, especially at finer resolutions. Grid cells with high diversity according to the dung count data did not necessarily have high diversity according to the observational counts, as shown by low correlation of grid cell values of both methods. We discuss these results in the light of estimates of the sampling effort of each method and, hence, suggest new monitoring designs that are more suitable for tracking temporal and spatial trends in large herbivore diversity and community composition.     

Impact of West Nile Virus on American Crows in the Northeastern United States,and Its Relevance to Existing Monitoring Programs

We assessed the changes in abundance of American crows in the northeastern U.S. following the arrival of West Nile virus (WNV), with two aims. First, we determined the impact and spatial extent of the initial epizootic that began in New York City. Second, we examined whether two existing surveillance programs monitoring for WNV (data from 2000 New York State dead bird testing, and 2000 mosquito testing) accurately predicted the observed impact of the disease on crow populations as measured using data from the North American Christmas Bird Count. The rationale for this second aim was that the two WNV surveys were new and with unknown biases and sensitivity, while the Christmas Bird Count has existed for decades, providing monitoring before the arrival of WNV in North America and a long time series of data useful in gauging sensitivity. As a result, the Christmas Bird Count represents a good benchmark against which to compare the two new surveillance programs. Consistency among these three sources of information was low, suggesting that while dead bird and mosquito surveys can currently indicate the later stages of severe outbreaks, the ability to consistently detect early stages of outbreaks is questionable.     

Selection of radio transmitter and attachment method for post-release monitoring of captive-bred reintroduced Red-billed Curassow Crax blumenbachii, Brazil

Long-term monitoring of reintroduced individuals is a central component of many endangered species reintroduction programs. Radio-telemetry techniques are rarely used to monitor reintroduced captive-bred Cracids and few data exist regarding possible adverse effects of radio-tagging Cracids. In this study, we identify an appropriate radio transmitter design and develop a suitable attachment method that minimizes anthropogenic influence and enables long-term, post-release monitoring (2–3 years) of reintroduced captive-bred Red-billed Curassows in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. We also review studies about the effects of different VHF radio transmitter models on survival, reproduction, behavior, and physiology of Galliformes.     

Can Wide Consultation Help with Setting Priorities for Large-Scale Biodiversity Monitoring Programs?

Climate and other global change phenomena affecting biodiversity require monitoring to track ecosystem changes and guide policy and management actions. Designing a biodiversity monitoring program is a difficult task that requires making decisions that often lack consensus due to budgetary constrains. As monitoring programs require long-term investment, they also require strong and continuing support from all interested parties. As such, stakeholder consultation is key to identify priorities and make sound design decisions that have as much support as possible. Here, we present the results of a consultation conducted to serve as an aid for designing a large-scale biodiversity monitoring program for the province of Québec (Canada). The consultation took the form of a survey with 13 discrete choices involving tradeoffs in respect to design priorities and 10 demographic questions (e.g., age, profession). The survey was sent to thousands of individuals having expected interests and knowledge about biodiversity and was completed by 621 participants. Overall, consensuses were few and it appeared difficult to create a design fulfilling the priorities of the majority. Most participants wanted 1) a monitoring design covering the entire territory and focusing on natural habitats; 2) a focus on species related to ecosystem services, on threatened and on invasive species. The only demographic characteristic that was related to the type of prioritization was the declared level of knowledge in biodiversity (null to high), but even then the influence was quite small.     

Calls out of chaos: the adaptive significance of nonlinear phenomena in mammalian vocal production

Recent work on human vocal production demonstrates that certain irregular phenomena seen in human pathological voices and baby crying result from nonlinearities in the vocal production system. Equivalent phenomena are quite common in nonhuman mammal vocal repertoires. In particular, bifurcations and chaos are ubiquitous aspects of the normal adult repertoire in many primate species. Here we argue that these phenomena result from properties inherent in the peripheral production mechanism, which allows individuals to generate highly complex and unpredictable vocalizations without requiring equivalently complex neural control mechanisms. We provide examples from the vocal repertoire of rhesus macaques, Macaca mulatta, and other species illustrating the different classes of nonlinear phenomena, and review the concepts from nonlinear dynamics that explicate these calls. Finally, we discuss the evolutionary significance of nonlinear vocal phenomena. We suggest that nonlinear phenomena may subserve individual recognition and the estimation of size or fluctuating asymmetry from vocalizations. Furthermore, neurally ‘cheap’ unpredictability may serve the valuable adaptive function of making chaotic calls difficult to predict and ignore. While noting that nonlinear phenomena are in some cases probably nonadaptive by-products of the physics of the sound-generating mechanism, we suggest that these functional hypotheses provide at least a partial explanation for the ubiquity of nonlinear calls in nonhuman vocal repertoires.     

Teasing out biological effects and sampling artifacts when using occupancy rate in monitoring programs

ABSTRACT.   Recent declines in biodiversity stress the need for rigorous and reliable multispecies monitoring programs. A potential weakness of monitoring programs is a reliance on raw counts and the assumption either of complete detection or of constant detection probability for each species, regardless of the sampling situation. Until recently, these assumptions have largely remained untested and, therefore, to help insure accuracy, bird-monitoring programs have depended on standardization of counts and counts of longer duration. We tested the effectiveness of these strategies for providing unbiased occupancy rates using a method designed to accommodate situations where species detection probabilities are less than one and heterogeneous. We tested the effect of potential sources of heterogeneity in detection probability (vegetation structure, wind velocity, cloud cover, date, and time) on occupancy rate estimates of 13 bird species in southern France. We compared adjusted and raw occupancy rates for two sampling durations (10 and 20 min). Differences between raw and adjusted occupancy rates were low even for the shorter count duration, suggesting that standardized long counts should produce reliable estimates of occupancy rates even in the absence of correction by an appropriate method. This enhances the value of past monitoring programs where long standardized counts were used, but with designs that do not allow corrected estimates. However, we found that detection probability was heterogeneous for most species and that vegetation structure was an important source of heterogeneity. The possible effects of habitat on detection probability should be of special concern for long-term monitoring programs conducted in landscapes where habitats vary across time or space.     

The challenge of effective surveillance in moving from low transmission to elimination of schistosomiasis in China

Until recently, intensified efforts in China to suppress the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum relied principally on routine praziquantel treatment, extensive use of molluscicides and health education programs. These efforts, now supplemented by a broader range of control measures, have been quite successful in reducing the prevalence and intensity of human infection to very low levels. However, re-emergent transmission has occurred in formerly endemic areas of several provinces, signalling the need for more locally effective, integrated control strategies. We argue that these low but persistent levels of transmission also require important changes in both the tactics and strategy of disease surveillance to move forward towards elimination. Here we present recent data exemplifying the low transmission environment which suggests that we are reaching limits of detection of current diagnostic techniques used for human infection surveillance in these communities. However, both epidemiological data and theoretical results indicate that (i) transmission in the human population can persist at very low infection intensities even in the presence of routine control activities; (ii) the parasite can be reintroduced into parasite-free environments by very modest external inputs; and (iii) transmission at these low infection intensities exhibits very slow inter-year dynamics. These observations motivate the need for new, sensitive tools to identify low-level infections in mammalian or snail hosts, or the presence of S. japonicum in environmental media. Environmental monitoring offers an alternative, and perhaps more efficient, approach to large-scale surveillance of human infections in low transmission regions.     

Biodiversity monitoring: some proposals to adequately study species’ responses to climate change

Climate change affects all levels of biology and is a major threat for biodiversity. Hence, it is fundamental to run biodiversity monitoring programs to understand the effects of climate change on the biota and to be able to adjust management and conservation accordingly. So far, however, very few existing monitoring programs allow for the detection of climate change effects, as shown by a survey undertaken by the European project EuMon. Despite this shortcoming, several methods exist which allow to make inferences from existing data by integrating data across different monitoring programs: correlative analyses, meta-analyses and models. In addition, experiments are thought to be useful tools to understand the effects of climate change on plants and animals. Here, we evaluate the utility of these four main approaches. All these methods allow to evaluate long term effects of climate change and make predictions of species’ future development, but they are arguable. We list and compare their benefits and inconveniences, which can lead to uncertainties in the extrapolation of species responses to global climate change. Individual characteristics and population parameters have to be more frequently monitored. The potential evolution of a species should be also modelled, to extrapolate results across spatial and temporal scales as well as to analyse the combined effects of different climatic and biotic factors, including intra but also interspecific relationships. We conclude that a combination of methodologies would be the most promising tool for the assessment of biological responses to climate change, and we provide some thoughts about how to do so. Particularly, we encourage long-term studies along natural gradients (altitudinal or latitudinal) on the same species/habitats to be able to extrapolate to large geographic scales, and to have more complete data sets, necessary to understand the mechanisms of responses. Such data may provide a more accurate base for simulations across spatial and temporal scales, especially if they are publicly available in a common database. These recommendations could allow the adaptation of species management and the development of conservation tools to climate change which threatens species.     

Monitoring Golden-Cheeked Warblers on Private Lands in Texas

ABSTRACT A majority of North American breeding habitat for neotropical migrants exists on private lands, requiring monitoring strategies focused on habitat in these private holdings. We outline study designs and protocols using repeated Presence-Absence surveys across a gradient of patch sizes to develop a range-wide monitoring program for the endangered golden-cheeked warbler (Dendroica chrysoparia) in Texas, USA. We surveyed 200–400 point-count locations across approximately 30 private properties annually from 2005 to 2008. We used data from our surveyed patches (n = 147) and the Ψ (occupancy), p (detection), and γ = 1 - ɛ parameterization to estimate patch dynamics and associated detection probabilities for golden-cheeked warblers. Patch size had a strong association with patch occupancy, and all patches >160 ha were predicted to be occupied. We found no evidence that large golden-cheeked warbler populations located on public lands in the vicinity of our study area influenced occupancy dynamics. We conducted simulations across a range of detection probabilities to evaluate potential sample sizes for both standard- and removal-based occupancy modeling. Simulations using parameter estimates from our analysis indicated that removal-based sampling is superior to standard sampling. Based on our results, surveying golden-cheeked warbler presence in oak-juniper (Quercus-Juniperus) patches under a removal modeling framework should be considered as one alternative for range-wide monitoring programs because patch-level monitoring would be necessary to estimate proportion of range occupied. Large contiguous patches are rare across the species’ range; hence, conservation and management of the mosaic of smaller patches within a landscape context would be required for maintaining species viability. Thus, we recommend the identification of areas where smaller, contiguous patches represent a significant portion of the available habitat within the local landscape and targeting these areas for habitat maintenance and improvement.     

Mitochondrial Genome Sequencing and Development of Genetic Markers for the Detection of DNA of Invasive Bighead and Silver Carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and H. molitrix) in Environmental Water Samples from the United States

Invasive Asian bighead and silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and H. molitrix) pose a substantial threat to North American aquatic ecosystems. Recently, environmental DNA (eDNA), genetic material shed by organisms into their environment that can be detected by non-invasive sampling strategies and genetic assays, has gained recognition as a tool for tracking the invasion front of these species toward the Great Lakes. The goal of this study was to develop new species-specific conventional PCR (cPCR) and quantitative (qPCR) markers for detection of these species in North American surface waters. We first generated complete mitochondrial genome sequences from 33 bighead and 29 silver carp individuals collected throughout their introduced range. These sequences were aligned with those from other common and closely related fish species from the Illinois River watershed to identify and design new species-specific markers for the detection of bighead and silver carp DNA in environmental water samples. We then tested these genetic markers in the laboratory for species-specificity and sensitivity. Newly developed markers performed well in field trials, did not have any false positive detections, and many markers had much higher detection rates and sensitivity compared to the markers currently used in eDNA surveillance programs. We also explored the use of multiple genetic markers to determine whether it would improve detection rates, results of which showed that using multiple highly sensitive markers should maximize detection rates in environmental samples. The new markers developed in this study greatly expand the number of species-specific genetic markers available to track the invasion front of bighead and silver carp and will improve the resolution of these assays. Additionally, the use of the qPCR markers developed in this study may reduce sample processing time and cost of eDNA monitoring for these species.