Secular trends in twinning rates

Based on national data from civil birth registration systems, this paper provides an overview of trends in the twinning birth rates in fifteen developed countries. Patterns and differentials in such rates across populations are described, and trends over time are given. The evolution of the twinning rate in industrialized countries over the last century follows broadly the same pattern. One exception is the period around World War I, with a peak in the twinning rate being observed during the war, or just after it, although this was not registered in all countries. Since the mid-1970s twinning rates have increased in many developed countries in response to a growing use of fertility-stimulating treatments such as in vitro fertilization.     

Geographic variation in the population trends of common breeding birds across central Europe

Recent declines of many European bird species have been linked with various environmental changes, especially land-use change and climate change. Since the intensity of these environmental changes varies among different countries, we can expect geographic variation in bird population trends. Here, we compared the population trends of bird species among neighbouring countries within central Europe (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland) between 1990 and 2016 and examined trait-associations with population trends at both national and international scales. We found that Denmark had the highest proportion of declining species while Switzerland had the lowest. Species associated with farmland had negative trends, but the effect size tended to differ among countries. A preference for higher temperature was positively associated with population trends and its effect size was similar among countries. Species that were increasing across all four countries were associated with forest; while species that were decreasing across all countries were long-distance migrants or farmland birds. Our results suggest that land-use change tends to be a more regionally variable driver of common bird population trends than climate change in central Europe. For species declining across all countries, international action plans could provide a framework for more efficient conservation. However, farmland birds likely need both, coordinated international action (e.g. through a green agricultural policy) to tackle their widespread declines as well as regionally different approaches to address varying national effect trajectories.     

Characterising demographic contributions to observed population change in a declining migrant bird

Populations of Afro‐Palearctic migrant birds have shown severe declines in recent decades. To identify the causes of these declines, accurate measures of both demographic rates (seasonal productivity, apparent survival, immigration) and environmental parameters will allow conservation and research actions to be targeted effectively. We used detailed observations of marked breeding birds from a ‘stronghold’ population of whinchats Saxicola rubetra in England (stable against the declining European trend) to reveal both on‐site and external mechanisms that contribute to population change. From field data, a population model was developed based on demographic rates from 2011 to 2014. Observed population trends were compared to the predicted population trends to assess model‐accuracy and the influence of outside factors, such as immigration. The sensitivity of the projected population growth rate to relative change in each demographic rate was also explored. Against expectations of high productivity, we identified low seasonal breeding success due to nocturnal predation and low apparent first‐year survival, which led to a projected population growth rate (λ) of 0.818, indicating a declining trend. However, this trend was not reflected in the census counts, suggesting that high immigration was probably responsible for buffering against this decline. Elasticity analysis indicated λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival but with covariance between demographic rates accounted for, most temporal variation in λ was due to variation in productivity. Our study demonstrates that high quality breeding habitat can buffer against population decline but high immigration and low productivity will expose even such stronghold populations to potential decline or abandonment if either factor is unsustainable. First‐year survival also appeared low, however this result is potentially confounded by high natal dispersal. First‐year survival and/or dispersal remains a significant knowledge gap that potentially undermines local solutions aimed at counteracting low productivity.     

Social,biological, and political considerations on fertility in Arab populations

In analyzing fertility in the Arab countries, crude birth rate, total fecundity rate, and age specific fertility rates were measured. The data was obtained from United Nations, UNICEF, and the World Bank. In the early 1980's 13 of the countries had birth rates 40/1000. The majority of countries showed a decline in their crude birth rate (CBR) between 1960-83, except Somalia, which increased. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Tunisia, Lebanon, and Kuwait, had the largest CBR decreases, followed by Morocco, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The global fecundity rate (GFR) shows the number of expected births a woman lives through her reproductive period, having children at the prevailing rate for each age. The GFR in these countries is much higher than those of non Moslem countries in the area. Results show that the fertility of Arab countries are in a gradual decline, but remain high, and many have a CBR over 40/1000. In the last 20 years Saudi Arabia, with the largest population of oil producing countries, has had a decreasing CBR. It is not in agreement with its high GFR, but this can be attributed to the large number of immigration workers in the country. The UAE showed a decrease in CBR from 46/1000 to 27/1000, the largest decrease in these countries. This decline coincided with the economic development due to oil production. Kuwait had a 25.5% decrease in CBR but less than Tunisia and Lebanon. The fertility decline in Kuwait intensified in the middle 1970's; the decline in northern Africa began in the late 1960's. There were declines in birth rates in the North African countries in the early 1970's except for Tunisia. The rapid declines in fertility can be attributed to the countries' socioeconomic and political situations.     

Dietary factors in the fall in coronary heart disease mortality.

The role of dietary change in the fall in heart disease mortality has been hotly debated. Three countries, Australia, USA and UK with equal 'care' and sophistication of surgical techniques have shown different timing in the beginning of the decline of this 'epidemic'; around the mid 1960s in the first two countries, but not until the late 1970s for the UK. The cause of this difference may be the changing food habits of their populations. Using food disappearance data, apparent consumption of butter and margarine show opposite trends (butter down and margarine up) predating the decline in mortality in both the USA and Australia by at least 7 years and also in the UK, but at a later time, (about 1970). Changes in adipose tissue linoleate, a marker for polyunsaturated fat intake, support this indirect evidence, with depot levels rising in the USA from the 1960s and 10 years later in the UK. Other evidence support the view of decreasing saturated fat intake and increasing polyunsaturated intake prior to 1960 in the USA. Although many factors must contribute to the decline in mortality from CHD, change in dietary P/S ratio would seem to be the major dietary contributor.     

Dizygotic to monozygotic twinning ratio at The Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne 1947-1997, compared with Australian national twinning incidence.

The incidence of dizygotic (Dz) twinning can be used as an index of natural human fertility. A retrospective study was done at The Royal Women's Hospital, Australia, to see whether the dizygotic to monozygotic (Mz) twinning ratio from one hospital can accurately reflect the national incidence of Dz twinning. The yearly twinning incidence from 1947-1997 was expressed as a Dz:Mz ratio, standardised for maternal age and plotted against previously published national statistics. The proportion of mothers born in Asia (of both singleton and multiples) between 1983-1997 was analysed to see whether different racial mixes might influence twinning trends. There were 5275 twins born of known sex and maternal age between 1947-1997. The age-standardised Dz:Mz ratio increased non-significantly from 1.39 in 1947 to 2.29 in 1953 (P = 0.08), underwent a significant decline to 0.73 in 1977, then remained stable until 1997 (P>0.05). The same trends were also apparent when the data was pooled into 2-year groups with the increase from 1947/48-1953/54 becoming highly significant (P<0.009). These trends observed in the hospital-based data were in close agreement with those found in the national statistics, with the exception of a rise in 1977-1982 only reflected in the Australia-wide data. In 1993, 2.6% of mothers were born in Asian countries; by 1997, this had risen to 10.6%. We found that the Dz:Mz ratio from one hospital closely reflects national twinning trends. Prospective studies must account for race, and would need around 200-300 twin pairs per year to minimise fluctuations of the ratio.     

Suicide rates in young men in England and Wales in the 21st century: time trend study

Objectives To explore trends in suicide in young people to investigate the recent observation that after year on year rises in the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s, rates in young men are now declining.Design Time trend analysis.Setting England and Wales, 1968-2005.Population Men and women aged 15-34 years.Results Since the 1990s, rates of suicide in young men have declined steadily and by 2005 they were at their lowest level for almost 30 years. This decline is partly because of a reduction in poisoning with car exhaust gas as an increased number of cars have catalytic converters; but there have been declines in suicides from all common methods, including hanging, suggesting a more pervasive effect. Other risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment and divorce, have also decreased. Possible recent reductions in alcohol use among young men and increases in prescribing of antidepressants do not seem to be temporally related to the decline in suicide.Conclusions Suicide rates in young men have declined markedly in the past 10 years in England and Wales. Reductions in key risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment, might be contributing to lower rates.     

Stable aggregate fertility in a time of family change: a decomposition of trends in American fertility, 1970-1999

Population-level birth rates in the United States were largely stable between 1970 and 1999. This stability contrasts with rapid change in marriage rates and fertility timing during the same period. In this article, I use decomposition techniques to analyze this seeming paradox. I decompose the general fertility rate into four components: age distribution, marital status, age-specific nonmarital fertility, and age-specific marital fertility. Absent other changes, declining time spent married would have led to substantial decline in fertility. Several factors combined to counterbalance these changes in marital behavior. Among white women in the 1970s and 1980s, marital fertility rates increased at older ages, consistent with a scenario in which women postponed both marriage and childbearing; increased nonmarital birth rates during this period were not a driving factor in overall fertility trends. Increased nonmarital fertility was more important in compensating for declining time spent married among African American women and among white women in the 1990s.     

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.     

Butterfly monitoring in Europe: methods,applications and perspectives

Since the first Butterfly Monitoring Scheme in the UK started in the mid-1970s, butterfly monitoring in Europe has developed in more than ten European countries. These schemes are aimed to assess regional and national trends in butterfly abundance per species. We discuss strengths and weaknesses of methods used in these schemes and give examples of applications of the data. A new development is to establish supra-national trends per species and multispecies indicators. Such indicators enable to report against the target to halt biodiversity loss by 2010. Our preliminary European Grassland Butterfly Indicator shows a decline of 50% between 1990 and 2005. We expect to develop a Grassland Butterfly Indicator with an improved coverage across European countries. We see also good perspectives to develop a supra-national indicator for climate change as well as an indicator for woodland butterflies.     

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world.     

Demographic and environmental causes of the decline of rural Song Thrushes Turdus philomelos in lowland Britain

We review current knowledge of demographic mechanisms and environmental factors implicated in the population decline of Song Thrushes Turdus philomelos in rural Britain since the mid-1970s, and present new analyses of regional variation in population changes. Increased mortality during the first year of life (from fledging to recruitment) is highlighted as a potential demographic mechanism having driven the population decline, while Song Thrushes in a rapidly declining farmland population were making too few nesting attempts to sustain local numbers. Breeding Song Thrushes are strongly associated with non-cropped habitats such as woodland edge, field boundaries, gardens and scrub; they make substantial use of grassland, but avoid cereals when foraging. Earthworms constitute a key component of Song Thrush diet and the availability of this prey is strongly influenced by moisture levels in surface soils. Several lines of evidence suggest that dry surface soils during summer are deleterious to the productivity and survival of Song Thrushes, and regional variation in the rates of population change in Britain during 1970–86 was negatively correlated with the extent of under-field drainage on farmland (the main function of which is to promote the drying of surface soils). Increasing dryness of agricultural soils and the loss of grassland from eastern arable counties have probably both contributed to the declines of rural Song Thrushes in Britain. Loss of hedgerows and scrub, and the degradation of woodland may also have contributed to population declines but the role of predators remains unclear. Recovery of rural Song Thrush populations requires challenging new policy initiatives that should aim to restore nesting cover (scrub and woodland understorey), grazed grassland in arable-dominated areas and damper soils in summer.     

Disentangling the spatial and temporal causes of decline in a bird population

The difficulties in understanding the underlying reasons of a population decline lie in the typical short duration of field studies, the often too small size already reached by a declining population or the multitude of environmental factors that may influence population trend. In this difficult context, useful demographic tools such as integrated population models (IPM) may help disentangling the main reasons for a population decline. To understand why a hoopoe Upupa epops population has declined, we followed a three step model analysis. We built an IPM structured with respect to habitat quality (approximated by the expected availability of mole crickets, the main prey in our population) and estimated the contributions of habitat‐specific demographic rates to population variation and decline. We quantified how much each demographic rate has decreased and investigated whether habitat quality influenced this decline. We tested how much weather conditions and research activities contributed to the decrease in the different demographic rates. The decline of the hoopoe population was mainly explained by a decrease in first‐year apparent survival and a reduced number of fledglings produced, particularly in habitats of high quality. Since a majority of pairs bred in habitats of the highest quality, the decrease in the production of locally recruited yearlings in high‐quality habitat was the main driver of the population decline despite a homogeneous drop of recruitment across habitats. Overall, the explanatory variables we tested only accounted for 19% of the decrease in the population growth rate. Among these variables, the effects of spring temperature (49% of the explained variance) contributed more to population decline than spring precipitation (36%) and research activities (maternal capture delay, 15%). This study shows the power of IPMs for identifying the vital rates involved in population declines and thus paves the way for targeted conservation and management actions.     

Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds

Declines in migratory species are a pressing concern worldwide, but the mechanisms underpinning these declines are not fully understood. We hypothesised that species with greater within‐population variability in migratory movements and destinations, here termed ‘migratory diversity’, might be more resilient to environmental change. To test this, we related map‐based metrics of migratory diversity to recent population trends for 340 European breeding birds. Species that occupy larger non‐breeding ranges relative to breeding, a characteristic we term ‘migratory dispersion’, were less likely to be declining than those with more restricted non‐breeding ranges. Species with partial migration strategies (i.e. overlapping breeding and non‐breeding ranges) were also less likely to be declining than full migrants or full residents, an effect that was independent of migration distance. Recent rates of advancement in Europe‐wide spring arrival date were greater for partial migrants than full migrants, suggesting that migratory diversity may also help facilitate species responses to climate change.     

Twinning rates in a rural area of Bangladesh

In this study we investigate the incidence of twin births over a period of 16 years in a rural area of Bangladesh using data from the Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research. Over the study period twinning rates fluctuated between 7.8 and 11.2 per 1000 live births. The twinning rate was strongly correlated with maternal age; the rate for mothers over 35 years of age was about 3 times higher than for mothers younger than 20 years. The variation in twinning rate with maternal age is due to the variation in dizygotic twinning; the rate of monozygotic twinning is almost constant for all ages. Twinning rates were higher in the treatment area than in the comparison area after controlling for maternal age and parity. The rates were lower for monozygotic twinning and higher for dizygotic twinning in the treatment area than in the comparison area. Seasonality was observed for both twins and singletons, but the peak for twinning precedes that for singleton births by more than a month.     

Demographic analysis of the variation in the rates of multiple maternities in Sweden since 1751

To elucidate the causes and mechanisms of twinning and higher multifetal maternities, we have taken advantage of the statistical sources of Sweden, where continuous statistics for the whole population are the oldest available. We found strong secular and regional fluctuations. The rates of multiple maternities were the highest during the last three decades of the 18th century, when the twinning rate was more than 17 per 1,000, the triplet rate was more than 3 per 10,000, and the quadruplet rate was almost 7 per 1 million maternities. During 1849-1873 the twinning rate in Sweden was 14.2 per 1,000, but this rate showed great regional differences, being 18.0 per 1,000 on the island of Gotland and 12.6 per 1,000 in the county of Alvsborg. During this period the twinning rate in the countryside in the county of Stockholm was 20.4, but in the city of Stockholm it was only 14.1 per 1,000. In Sweden after the 1930s there was a marked decrease in the twinning rate, which by the 1960s had fallen to only about half of what it had been two centuries earlier. The corresponding reductions for triplet and quadruplet rates were about 75%. The aim of this paper was to study the temporal and regional variations in multiple maternities in Sweden from 1751 to 1960 based on demographic and some socioeconomic data for the counties. We confirmed our earlier studies that maternal age and parity cannot satisfactorily explain the secular and regional differences in the twinning rates. In contrast to studies in France (1901-1968), we found no unequivocal association between the twinning rates and the crude birth rates. The correlation coefficients between the twinning rate and the crude birth rate showed statistically significant regional and temporal variations. After eliminating the temporal trends, regional differences in the correlation coefficients remained. The twinning rates for the counties seem to converge toward a common low level, 10-12 per 1,000. The observed convergence toward relatively similar levels may be caused by the increased matrimonial migration distances and decreased endogamy of the citizens as a consequence of better communications. The increased urbanization and industrialization that started in the last decades of the 19th century broke up the old static agrarian isolates and caused Sweden, within 2-3 generations, to develop from a poor nation to one of the most prosperous in the world. A more urban and affluent lifestyle, a better diet, and increased stress and sedentary occupations may have reduced the physical capacity of mothers to carry gestations with multiple embryos or fetuses to completion.     

Twinning and heteropaternity in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

Unlike monozygotic (MZ) twins, dizygotic (DZ) twins develop from separate ova. The resulting twins can have different sires if the fertilizing sperm comes from different males. Routine paternity testing of a pair of same-sexed chimpanzee twins born to a female housed with two males indicated that the twins were sired by two different males. DNA typing of 22 short-tandem repeat (STR) loci demonstrated that these twins were not MZ twins but heteropaternal DZ twins. Reproductive data from 1926-2002 at five domestic chimpanzee colonies, including 52 twins and two triplets in 1,865 maternities, were used to estimate total twinning rates and the MZ and DZ components. The average chimpanzee MZ twinning rate (0.43%) equaled the average human MZ rate (0.48%). However, the chimpanzee DZ twinning rate (2.36%) was over twice the human average, and higher than all but the fertility-enhanced human populations of Nigeria. Similarly high twinning rates among African chimpanzees indicated that these estimates were not artifacts of captivity. Log-linear analyses of maternal and paternal effects on recurrent twinning indicated that females who twinned previously had recurrence risks five times greater than average, while evidence for a paternal twinning effect was weak. Chimpanzee twinning rates appear to be elevated relative to corresponding estimated human rates, making twinning and possibly heteropaternity more important features of chimpanzee reproductive biology than previously recognized.     

Constant multiple birth rates in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic until recently, 1972-1995.

Using vital statistics, yearly changes in the twinning and triplet rates by zygosity were investigated in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic during the period 1972-1995. Monozygotic (MZ) twinning rates in both countries had remained nearly constant (about 3 per 1000 total births) during that period. With a few exceptions, the dizygotic (DZ) twinning rates remained constant from 1972 to 1994, and increased in 1995 for both countries. MZ twinning rates for both countries were the lowest in Europe. As for triplet rates, overall rates increased significantly year by year in the Czech Republic, but not in the Slovak Republic. The triplet rate was significantly higher in 1995 than in the period 1972-1982 for both countries. The MZ triplet rate remained constant during that period in the Czech Republic. The trizygotic (TZ) triplet rates increased 3-fold for the Czech Republic and 4-fold for the Slovak Republic in 1972-1976 and 1992-1995. In the later period, the TZ rate was 1.5-fold higher in the Czech Republic than in the Slovak Republic. The quadruplet rate increased 2.3-fold from 2.9 per million births in 1982-1986 to 6.7 in 1992-1995 in the Czech Republic. The corresponding values were 2.7, 2.20 and 5.9-fold in the Slovak Republic. Both the Czech and the Slovak Republics were not affected by fertility drugs and assisted reproductive techniques until recently.     

The decline of Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus in Alaska: a review of the nutritional stress hypothesis

1. The decline of Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands between the late 1970s and 1990s may have been related to reduced availability of suitable prey. Many studies have shown that pinnipeds and other mammals suffering from nutritional stress typically exhibit reduced body size, reduced productivity, high mortality of pups and juveniles, altered blood chemistry and specific behavioural modifications. 2. Morphometric measurements of Steller sea lions through the 1970s and 1980s in Alaska indicate reduced body size. Reduced numbers of pups born and an apparent increase in juvenile mortality rates also appear to be nutritionally based. Blood chemistry analyses have further shown that Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands area exhibited signs of an acute phase reaction, or immune reaction, in response to unidentified physical and/or environmental stress. Behavioural studies during the 1990s have not noted any changes that are indicative of an overall shortage in the quantity of prey available to lactating female sea lions. 3. The data collected in Alaska are consistent with the hypothesis that Steller sea lions in the declining regions were nutritionally compromised because of the relative quality of prey available to them (chronic nutritional stress), rather than because of the overall quantity of fish per se (acute nutritional stress). This is further supported by captive studies that indicate the overall quality of prey that has been available to Steller sea lions in the declining population could compromise the health of Steller sea lions and hinder their recovery.     

MAJOR DECLINE IN NUMBER OF HARBOR SEALS, PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDSI, ON TUGIDAK ISLAND, GULF OF ALASKA

Tugidak Island, located in the Gulf of Alaska, was once the site of one of largest local concentrations of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardsi ) in the world. This population, which probably consisted of about 20,500 animals in the mid-1960s declined by about 85% between 1976 and 1988. The population appeared to decline more rapidly during the late 1970s than during the 1980s. Causes for the decline are not apparent. There appear to be both similarities and dissimilarities between this decline and recent declines in abundance of northern fur seals ( Callorhinus ursinus ) and Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus ) in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska.