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1.
Since most rumors are harmful, how to control the spread of such rumors is important. In this paper, we studied the process of "immunization" against rumors by modeling the process of rumor spreading and changing the termination mechanism for the spread of rumors to make the model more realistic. We derived mean-field equations to describe the dynamics of the rumor spread. By carrying out steady-state analysis, we derived the spreading threshold value that must be exceeded for the rumor to spread. We further discuss a possible strategy for immunization against rumors and obtain an immunization threshold value that represents the minimum level required to stop the rumor from spreading. Numerical simulations revealed that the average degree of the network and parameters of transformation probability significantly influence the spread of rumors. More importantly, the simulations revealed that immunizing a higher proportion of individuals is not necessarily better because of the waste of resources and the generation of unnecessary information. So the optimal immunization rate should be the immunization threshold.  相似文献   

2.
A rumor transmission model with various contact interactions   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
We consider a rumor transmission model with various contact interactions and explore what effect such interactions have on the spread of a rumor, in particular whether they can explain the rumor recursion. Through mathematical analysis and computer simulations, we conjecture that rumor recursion remains a major challenge to mathematical models of rumors beyond our model proposed here.  相似文献   

3.
When facing incursion of a major livestock infectious disease, the decision to implement a vaccination programme is made at the national level. To make this decision, governments must consider whether the benefits of vaccination are sufficient to outweigh potential additional costs, including further trade restrictions that may be imposed due to the implementation of vaccination. However, little consensus exists on the factors triggering its implementation on the field. This work explores the effect of several triggers in the implementation of a reactive vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. In particular, we tested whether changes in the location of the incursion and the delay of implementation would affect the epidemiological benefit of such a policy in the context of Scotland. To reach this goal, we used a spatial, premises-based model that has been extensively used to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation procedures in Great Britain. The results show that the decision to vaccinate, or not, is not straightforward and strongly depends on the underlying local structure of the population-at-risk. With regards to disease incursion preparedness, simply identifying areas of highest population density may not capture all complexities that may influence the spread of disease as well as the benefit of implementing vaccination. However, if a decision to vaccinate is made, we show that delaying its implementation in the field may markedly reduce its benefit. This work provides guidelines to support policy makers in their decision to implement, or not, a vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of infectious livestock disease.  相似文献   

4.
On the mathematical theory of rumor spread   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The applicability of the theory of random nets to the theory of rumor spread is shown. In particular the “weak connectivity” of the net appears as the saturation fraction of “knowers” in a thoroughly mixed population through which a message diffuses where each knower tells the message to a finite average number of individuals. Further it is shown how the time course equation of rumor spread, where time is measured by the number of “removes” from the starters, can be translated into an ordinary continuous time course equation if the distribution of the telling intervals is known.  相似文献   

5.
The 2009 H1N1 pandemic stimulated a nationwide response that included a mass vaccination effort coordinated at the federal, state, and local levels. This article examines a sampling of state and local efforts during the pandemic in order to better prepare for future public health emergencies involving mass distribution, dispensing, and administration of medical countermeasures. In this analysis, the authors interviewed national, state, and local leaders to gain a better understanding of the accomplishments and challenges of H1N1 vaccination programs during the 2009-10 influenza season. State and local health departments distributed and administered H1N1 vaccine using a combination of public and private efforts. Challenges encountered during the vaccination campaign included the supply of and demand for vaccine, prioritization strategies, and local logistics. To improve the response capabilities to deal with infectious disease emergencies, the authors recommend investing in technologies that will assure a more timely availability of the needed quantities of vaccine, developing local public health capacity and relationships with healthcare providers, and enhancing federal support of state and local activities. The authors support in principle the CDC recommendation to vaccinate annually all Americans over 6 months of age against seasonal influenza to establish a standard of practice on which to expand the ability to vaccinate during a pandemic. However, expanding seasonal influenza vaccination efforts will be an expensive and long-term investment that will need to be weighed against anticipated benefits and other public health needs. Such investments in public health infrastructure could be important for building capacity and practice for distributing, dispensing, and administering countermeasures in response to a future pandemic or biological weapons attack.  相似文献   

6.
Outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Vietnam continue to threaten the livelihoods of those reliant on poultry production whilst simultaneously posing a severe public health risk given the high mortality associated with human infection. Authorities have invested significant resources in order to control these outbreaks. Of particular interest is the decision, following a second wave of outbreaks, to move from a “stamping out” approach to the implementation of a nationwide mass vaccination campaign. Outbreaks which occurred around this shift in policy provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the relative effectiveness of these approaches and to help other countries make informed judgements when developing control strategies. Here we use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data augmentation techniques to derive the first quantitative estimates of the impact of the vaccination campaign on the spread of outbreaks of H5N1 in northern Vietnam. We find a substantial decrease in the transmissibility of infection between communes following vaccination. This was coupled with a significant increase in the time from infection to detection of the outbreak. Using a cladistic approach we estimated that, according to the posterior mean effect of pruning the reconstructed epidemic tree, two thirds of the outbreaks in 2007 could be attributed to this decrease in the rate of reporting. The net impact of these two effects was a less intense but longer-lasting wave and, whilst not sufficient to prevent the sustained spread of outbreaks, an overall reduction in the likelihood of the transmission of infection between communes. These findings highlight the need for more effectively targeted surveillance in order to help ensure that the effective coverage achieved by mass vaccination is converted into a reduction in the likelihood of outbreaks occurring which is sufficient to control the spread of H5N1 in Vietnam.  相似文献   

7.
Vaccination of experimental animals can provide efficient protection against ocular herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) challenge. Although it is suspected that local immune responses are important in protection against ocular HSV-1 infection, no definitive studies have been done to determine if local ocular vaccination would produce more efficacious protection against HSV-1 ocular challenge than systemic vaccination. To address this question, we vaccinated groups of rabbits either systemically or periocularly with recombinant HSV-2 glycoproteins B (gB2) and D (gD2) in MF59 emulsion or with live KOS (a nonneurovirulent strain of HSV-1). Three weeks after the final vaccination, all eyes were challenged with McKrae (a virulent, eye disease-producing strain of HSV-1). Systemic vaccination with either HSV-1 KOS or gB2/gD2 in MF59 did not provide significant protection against any of the four eye disease parameters measured (conjunctivitis, iritis, epithelial keratitis, and corneal clouding). In contrast, periocular vaccination with gB2/gD2 in MF59 provided significant protection against conjunctivitis and iritis, while ocular vaccination with live HSV-1 KOS provided significant protection against all four parameters. Thus, local ocular vaccination provided better protection than systemic vaccination against eye disease following ocular HSV-1 infection. Since local vaccination should produce a stronger local immune response than systemic vaccination, these results suggest that the local ocular immune response is very important in protecting against eye disease due to primary HSV-1 infection. Thus, for clinical protection against primary HSV-1-induced corneal disease, a local ocular vaccine may prove more effective than systemic vaccination.  相似文献   

8.
Zika virus (ZIKV) is a vector-borne disease that has rapidly spread during the year 2016 in more than 50 countries around the world. If a woman is infected during pregnancy, the virus can cause severe birth defects and brain damage in their babies. The virus can be transmitted through the bites of infected mosquitoes as well as through direct contact from human to human (e.g., sexual contact and blood transfusions). As an intervention for controlling the spread of the disease, we study a vaccination model for preventing Zika infections. Although there is no formal vaccine for ZIKV, The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (part of the National Institutes of Health) has launched a vaccine trial at the beginning of August 2016 to control ZIKV transmission, patients who received the vaccine are expected to return within 44 weeks to determine if the vaccine is safe. Since it is important to understand ZIKV dynamics under vaccination, we formulate a vaccination model for ZIKV spread that includes mosquito as well as sexual transmission. We calculate the basic reproduction number of the model to analyze the impact of relatively, perfect and imperfect vaccination rates. We illustrate several numerical examples of the vaccination model proposed as well as the impact of the basic reproduction numbers of vector and sexual transmission and the effect of vaccination effort on ZIKV spread. Results show that high levels of sexual transmission create larger cases of infection associated with the peak of infected humans arising in a shorter period of time, even when a vaccine is available in the population. However, a high level of transmission of Zika from vectors to humans compared with sexual transmission represents that ZIKV will take longer to invade the population providing a window of opportunities to control its spread, for instance, through vaccination.  相似文献   

9.
On the spatial spread of rabies among foxes   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
We present a simple model for the spatial spread of rabies among foxes and use it to quantify its progress in England if rabies were introduced. The model is based on the known ecology of fox behaviour and on the assumption that the main vector for the spread of the disease is the rabid fox. Known data and facts are used to determine real parameter values involved in the model. We calculate the speed of propagation of the epizootic front, the threshold for the existence of an epidemic, the period and distance apart of the subsequent cyclical epidemics which follow the main front, and finally we quantify a means for control of the spatial spread of the disease. By way of illustration we use the model to determine the progress of rabies up through the southern part of England if it were introduced near Southampton. Estimates for the current fox density in England were used in the simulations. These suggest that the disease would reach Manchester within about 3.5 years, moving at speeds as high as 100 km per year in the central region. The model further indicates that although it might seem that the disease had disappeared after the wave had passed it would reappear in the south of England after just over 6 years and at periodic times after that. We consider the possibility of stopping the spread of the disease by creating a rabies 'break' ahead of the front through vaccination to reduce the population to a level below the threshold for an epidemic to exist. Based on parameter values relevant to England, we estimate its minimum width to be about 15 km. The model suggests that vaccination has considerable advantages over severe culling.  相似文献   

10.
Vaccination can be a useful tool for control of avian influenza outbreaks in poultry, but its use is reconsidered in most of the countries worldwide because of its negative effects on the disease control. One of the most important negative effects is the potential for emergence of vaccine-resistant viruses. Actually, in the vaccination program in China and Mexico, several vaccine-resistant strains were confirmed. Vaccine-resistant strains usually cause a loss of the protection effectiveness of vaccination. Therefore, a vaccination program that engenders the emergence of the resistant strain might promote the spread of the resistant strain and undermine the control of the infectious disease, even if the vaccination protects against the transmission of a vaccine-sensitive strain. We designed and analyzed a deterministic patch-structured model in heterogeneous areas (with or without vaccination) illustrating transmission of vaccine-sensitive and vaccine-resistant strains during a vaccination program. We found that the vaccination program can eradicate the vaccine-sensitive strain but lead to a prevalence of vaccine-resistant strain. Further, interestingly, the replacement of viral strain could occur in another area without vaccination through a migration of non-infectious individuals due to an illegal trade of poultry. It is also a novel result that only a complete eradication of both strains in vaccination area can achieve the complete eradication in another areas. Thus we can obtain deeper understanding of an effect of vaccination for better development of vaccination strategies to control avian influenza spread.  相似文献   

11.
We focus on Internet rumors and present an empirical analysis and simulation results of their diffusion and convergence during emergencies. In particular, we study one rumor that appeared in the immediate aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, which later turned out to be misinformation. By investigating whole Japanese tweets that were sent one week after the quake, we show that one correction tweet, which originated from a city hall account, diffused enormously. We also demonstrate a stochastic agent-based model, which is inspired by contagion model of epidemics SIR, can reproduce observed rumor dynamics. Our model can estimate the rumor infection rate as well as the number of people who still believe in the rumor that cannot be observed directly. For applications, rumor diffusion sizes can be estimated in various scenarios by combining our model with the real data.  相似文献   

12.
Reactive vaccination has recently been adopted as an outbreak response tool for cholera and other infectious diseases. Owing to the global shortage of oral cholera vaccine, health officials must quickly decide who and where to distribute limited vaccine. Targeted vaccination in transmission hotspots (i.e. areas with high transmission efficiency) may be a potential approach to efficiently allocate vaccine, however its effectiveness will likely be context-dependent. We compared strategies for allocating vaccine across multiple areas with heterogeneous transmission efficiency. We constructed metapopulation models of a cholera-like disease and compared simulated epidemics where: vaccine is targeted at areas of high or low transmission efficiency, where vaccine is distributed across the population, and where no vaccine is used. We find that connectivity between populations, transmission efficiency, vaccination timing and the amount of vaccine available all shape the performance of different allocation strategies. In highly connected settings (e.g. cities) when vaccinating early in the epidemic, targeting limited vaccine at transmission hotspots is often optimal. Once vaccination is delayed, targeting the hotspot is rarely optimal, and strategies that either spread vaccine between areas or those targeted at non-hotspots will avert more cases. Although hotspots may be an intuitive outbreak control target, we show that, in many situations, the hotspot-epidemic proceeds so fast that hotspot-targeted reactive vaccination will prevent relatively few cases, and vaccination shared across areas where transmission can be sustained is often best.  相似文献   

13.
Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.  相似文献   

14.
Various epidemics have arisen in rural locations through human-animal interaction, such as the H1N1 outbreak of 2009. Through collaboration with local government officials, we have surveyed a rural county and its communities and collected a dataset characterizing the rural population. From the respondents’ answers, we build a social (face-to-face) contact network. With this network, we explore the potential spread of epidemics through a Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered (SLIR) disease model. We simulate an exact model of a stochastic SLIR Poisson process with disease parameters representing a typical influenza-like illness. We test vaccine distribution strategies under limited resources. We examine global and location-based distribution strategies, as a way to reach critical individuals in the rural setting. We demonstrate that locations can be identified through contact metrics for use in vaccination strategies to control contagious diseases.  相似文献   

15.
The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the veterinary health behaviours of farmers and how this impacts their implementation of disease control measures. Controls that are costly may make it beneficial for individuals to rely on the protection offered by others, though that may be sub-optimal for the population. Failing to account for socio-behavioural properties may produce a substantial layer of bias in infectious disease models. We investigated the role of heterogeneity in vaccine response across a population of farmers on epidemic outbreaks amongst livestock, caused by pathogens with differential speed of spread over spatial landscapes of farms for two counties in England (Cumbria and Devon). Under different compositions of three vaccine behaviour groups (precautionary, reactionary, non-vaccination), we evaluated from population- and individual-level perspectives the optimum threshold distance to premises with notified infection that would trigger responsive vaccination by the reactionary vaccination group. We demonstrate a divergence between population and individual perspectives in the optimal scale of reactive voluntary vaccination response. In general, minimising the population-level perspective cost requires a broader reactive uptake of the intervention, whilst optimising the outcome for the average individual increased the likelihood of larger scale disease outbreaks. When the relative cost of vaccination was low and the majority of premises had undergone precautionary vaccination, then adopting a perspective that optimised the outcome for an individual gave a broader spatial extent of reactive response compared to a perspective wanting to optimise outcomes for everyone in the population. Under our assumed epidemiological context, the findings identify livestock disease intervention receptiveness and cost combinations where one would expect strong disagreement between the intervention stringency that is best from the perspective of a stakeholder responsible for supporting the livestock industry compared to a sole livestock owner. Were such discord anticipated and achieving a consensus view across perspectives desired, the findings may also inform those managing veterinary health policy the requisite reduction in intervention cost and/or the required extent of nurturing beneficial community attitudes towards interventions.  相似文献   

16.
We have previously reported that a subunit protein vaccine based on the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) spike protein and a recombinant adeno-associated virus (rAAV)-based RBD (RBD-rAAV) vaccine could induce highly potent neutralizing Ab responses in immunized animals. In this study, systemic, mucosal, and cellular immune responses and long-term protective immunity induced by RBD-rAAV were further characterized in a BALB/c mouse model, with comparison of the i.m. and intranasal (i.n.) routes of administration. Our results demonstrated that: 1) the i.n. vaccination induced a systemic humoral immune response of comparable strength and shorter duration than the i.m. vaccination, but the local humoral immune response was much stronger; 2) the i.n. vaccination elicited stronger systemic and local specific cytotoxic T cell responses than the i.m. vaccination, as evidenced by higher prevalence of IL-2 and/or IFN-gamma-producing CD3+/CD8+ T cells in both lungs and spleen; 3) the i.n. vaccination induced similar protection as the i.m. vaccination against SARS-CoV challenge in mice; 4) higher titers of mucosal IgA and serum-neutralizing Ab were associated with lower viral load and less pulmonary pathological damage, while no Ab-mediated disease enhancement effect was observed; and 5) the vaccination could provide long-term protection against SARS-CoV infection. Taken together, our findings suggest that RBD-rAAV can be further developed into a vaccine candidate for prevention of SARS and that i.n. vaccination may be the preferred route of administration due to its ability to induce SARS-CoV-specific systemic and mucosal immune responses and its better safety profile.  相似文献   

17.

Background

Significant disparities in the incidence of polio existed during its eradication campaign in India. In 2006, Muslims, who comprise 16% of the population in affected states, comprised 70% of paralytic polio cases. This disparity was initially blamed on the Muslims and a rumor that the vaccination program was a plot to sterilize their children. Using the framework of structural violence, this paper describes how the socio-political and historical context of Muslim populations in India shaped the polio disparity.

Methods and Findings

A qualitative study utilizing methods of rapid ethnography was conducted from May-August 2009 in Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh, India. Field methods included participant observation of vaccination teams, historical document research, and 107 interviews with both Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) stakeholders and families with vaccine-eligible children. Almost all respondents agreed that Aligarh was a highly segregated city, mostly due to riots after Partition and during the 1990s. Since the formation of segregated neighborhoods, most respondents described that "Muslim areas" had been underdeveloped compared to "Hindu areas," facilitating the physical transmission of poliovirus. Distrust of the government and resistance to vaccination were linked to this disparate development and fears of sterilization influenced by the "Family Planning Program" from 1976-1977.

Conclusions

Ethnic violence and social marginalization since the Partition and during the rise of Hindu nationalism led to distrust of the government, the formation of segregated slums, and has made Muslims victims of structural violence. This led to the creation of disease-spreading physical environments, lowered vaccine efficacy, and disproportionately higher levels of resistance to vaccination. The causes of the polio disparity found in this study elucidate the nature of possible other health disparities affecting minorities in India.

Limitations

This study is limited by the manual coding of the transcribed data, size, and some dialectal difficulties in translation.  相似文献   

18.
Effective vaccination against heterologous influenza virus infection remains elusive. Immunization with plasmid DNA (pDNA) expressing conserved genes from influenza virus is a promising approach to achieve cross-variant protection. However, despite having been described for more than a decade, pDNA vaccination still requires further optimization to be applied clinically as a standard vaccination approach. We have recently described a simple and efficient approach to enhance pDNA immunization, based on the use of tucaresol, a Schiff base-forming drug. In this report we have tested the ability of this drug to increase the protection conferred by pDNA vaccination against influenza virus infection. Our results demonstrate that a significant protection was achieved in two strains of mice by using the combination of pDNA and tucaresol. This protection was associated with an elevated humoral and cellular response and a switch in the type of the T helper cell (Th) immune response from type 2 to type 1. This vaccine combination represents a promising strategy for designing a clinical study for the protection from influenza and similar infections.  相似文献   

19.
Since the allocation of vaccines is often constrained by limited resources, designing an economical vaccination strategy is a fundamental goal of the epidemiological modelling. In this study, with the objective of reducing costs, we determine the optimal allocation of vaccines for a general class of infectious diseases that spread mainly via contact. We use an optimization routine to identify the roles of nodes with distinct degrees as depending on the cost of treatment to that of vaccination (relative cost of treatment). The optimal allocation drives vaccination priority to medium-degree nodes at a low relative cost of treatment or to high-degree nodes at a high relative cost of treatment. According to the presented results, we may adjust the vaccination priority in the face of an endemic situation.  相似文献   

20.
BackgroundRabies is a fatal yet vaccine-preventable disease. In the last two decades, domestic dog populations have been shown to constitute the predominant reservoir of rabies in developing countries, causing 99% of human rabies cases. Despite substantial control efforts, dog rabies is still widely endemic and is spreading across previously rabies-free areas. Developing a detailed understanding of dog rabies dynamics and the impact of vaccination is essential to optimize existing control strategies and developing new ones. In this scoping review, we aimed at disentangling the respective contributions of mathematical models and phylodynamic approaches to advancing the understanding of rabies dynamics and control in domestic dog populations. We also addressed the methodological limitations of both approaches and the remaining issues related to studying rabies spread and how this could be applied to rabies control.Methodology/principal findingsWe reviewed how mathematical modelling of disease dynamics and phylodynamics have been developed and used to characterize dog rabies dynamics and control. Through a detailed search of the PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases, we identified a total of n = 59 relevant studies using mathematical models (n = 30), phylodynamic inference (n = 22) and interdisciplinary approaches (n = 7). We found that despite often relying on scarce rabies epidemiological data, mathematical models investigated multiple aspects of rabies dynamics and control. These models confirmed the overwhelming efficacy of massive dog vaccination campaigns in all settings and unraveled the role of dog population structure and frequent introductions in dog rabies maintenance. Phylodynamic approaches successfully disentangled the evolutionary and environmental determinants of rabies dispersal and consistently reported support for the role of reintroduction events and human-mediated transportation over long distances in the maintenance of rabies in endemic areas. Potential biases in data collection still need to be properly accounted for in most of these analyses. Finally, interdisciplinary studies were determined to provide the most comprehensive assessments through hypothesis generation and testing. They also represent new avenues, especially concerning the reconstruction of local transmission chains or clusters through data integration.Conclusions/significanceDespite advances in rabies knowledge, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the mechanisms of local spread, the role of wildlife in dog rabies maintenance, and the impact of community behavior on the efficacy of control strategies including vaccination of dogs. Future integrative approaches that use phylodynamic analyses and mechanistic models within a single framework could take full advantage of not only viral sequences but also additional epidemiological information as well as dog ecology data to refine our understanding of rabies spread and control. This would represent a significant improvement on past studies and a promising opportunity for canine rabies research in the frame of the One Health concept that aims to achieve better public health outcomes through cross-sector collaboration.  相似文献   

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