Twenty years of melanoma in Victoria,Queensland, and South Australia (1997 – 2016)

BackgroundGiven the high incidence of melanoma in Australia alongside high mortality with later stage disease, we investigated the populations and locations most at risk, to optimise public health activities in areas where intervention is most needed. This study examines trends and identifies significant prognostic factors and potential disparities in incidence, mortality and survival between population groups in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.MethodsThe analysis includes data from the population-based cancer registries of the three states over a twenty-year period (1997–2016). Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates were calculated, and long-term trends analysed using Joinpoint Regression. Five-year relative survival estimates for the study population were calculated using the cohort method and multivariable flexible parametric survival models were applied for each jurisdiction to calculate adjusted excess mortality hazard ratios for the key characteristics.ResultsThere were more males with melanoma than females in all the three states. Over 60% of the cases occurred in the 40–74 years age group. Most melanomas had a Breslow thickness less than or equal to 1.0 mm. For males, Victoria and Queensland had a statistically significant increasing trend whereas in South Australia there was a decreasing trend. For females, the incidence rate trend was stable in Victoria but significantly decreasing in South Australia. In Queensland there was an increasing and statistically significant trend from 2006 to 2016. Across all three states there was a reducing incidence rate in the youngest cohort, stabilizing incidence in the 40–59-year-old age group, and increasing in the oldest cohorts. Five-year relative survival decreased with increasing age and with Breslow thickness across all three jurisdictions. Males had between 43%− 46% excess mortality compared to females in all the three states. There was higher risk with increasing age and Breslow thickness, with the largest risk among the 75 + age group and those with a Breslow thickness of > 4 mm.ConclusionIt is the first time that data from these three registries has been analysed together in a uniform way, covering more than half of the Australian population. This study compares the epidemiology of melanoma across three states and provides a better understanding of trends and factors affecting outcome for Australians with melanoma. While there has been some improvement in aspects of incidence and mortality, this has not been evenly achieved across Australia.     

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China, 1990–2017: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBladder cancer is closely related to occupational carcinogens, and China is undergoing a rapid industrialization. However, trend of bladder cancer incidence and mortality remains unknown in China.MethodsIncidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group stratified by gender (males/females) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; age, period and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were simultaneously estimated by age-period-cohort model.ResultsThrough 1990–2017, age-standardized incidence rates significantly rose in men (AAPC = 0.72%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 0.9%) while decreased in women (-1.25%: -1.6%, -0.9%); age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both men (-1.09%: -1.2%, -0.9%) and women (-2.48%: -2.8%, -2.2%). The joinpoint regression analysis showed the mortality almost decreased in all age groups; while the incidence increased in men for older age groups (from 45 to 49 to 80–84). Moreover, age effect showed the incidence and mortality increased with age; the incidence and mortality increased with time period, while in women period effect stop decreasing and began to increase since 2007; cohort effect showed them decreased with birth cohorts.ConclusionsThe incidence of bladder cancer is increasing in men but mortality decreases in both sexes. Both the incidence and mortality in men substantially increase with age and period, while the rates in women increased with period since 2007. The period effect may indicate the increased risks to bladder cancer in Chinese men. Etiological studies are needed to identify the factors driving these trends of bladder cancer.     

Cancer risk and all-cause mortality among Norwegian military United Nations peacekeepers deployed to Kosovo between 1999 and 2011

ObjectiveMedia reports of leukaemia and other cancers among European United Nations (UN) peacekeepers who served in the Balkans, and a scientific finding of excess Hodgkin lymphoma among Italian UN peacekeepers who served in Bosnia, suggested a link between cancer incidence and depleted uranium (DU) exposure. This spurred several studies on cancer risk among UN peacekeepers who served in the Balkans. Although these studies turned out to be negative, the debate about possible cancers and other health risks caused by DU exposure continues. The aim of the present study was to investigate cancer incidence and all-cause mortality in a cohort of 6076 (4.4% women) Norwegian military UN peacekeepers deployed to Kosovo between 1999 and 2011.MethodsThe cohort was followed for cancer incidence and mortality from 1999 to 2011. Standardised incidence ratios for cancer (SIR) and mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated from national rates.ResultsSixty-nine cancer cases and 38 deaths were observed during follow-up. Cancer incidence in the cohort was similar to that in the general Norwegian population. No cancers in the overall cohort significantly exceeded incidence rates in the general Norwegian population, but there was an elevated SIR for melanoma of skin in men of 1.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–3.40). A fivefold increased incidence of bladder cancer was observed among men who served in Kosovo for ≥1 year, based on 2 excess cases (SIR = 5.27; 95% CI 1.09–15.4). All-cause mortality was half the expected rate (SMR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.35–0.67).ConclusionOur study did not support the suggestion that UN peacekeeping service in Kosovo is associated with increased cancer risk.     

Incidence of multiple myeloma in Kailuan cohort: A prospective community-based study in China

BackgroundPrevious retrospective studies showed that the incidence and mortality rates for MM in China were lower than those in western countries. A large-scale prospective study on incidence and mortality rates of MM is still lacking.MethodsBased on the prospective Kailuan Cohort study in China, we included all patients with MM in Kailuan Cohort from June 1, 2008 to December 31, 2016. Using the numbers of diagnosed cases and deaths during the study period as the numerators and the corresponding observed person-years as the denominators respectively, we calculated crude incidence and mortality rates. The 95% confidence intervals for crude incidence rate and mortality rate were estimated base on Poisson distribution. Rates were standardized by direct standardization according to the China population in 2000 and Segi’ world standard population.ResultsA total of 22 members from Kailuan Cohort were first diagnosed with MM between 2008 and 2016. The calculated crude incidence rates were 2.8 (95% CI, 1.7–4.2) per 100,000 person-years for all participants. The standardized incidence rate was 0.9 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.5–2.1) when standardized by 2000 China population census data, and 1.0 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.6–1.8) when standardized by Segi’s world standard population (WSP). The calculated crude mortality rates were 2.3 (95% CI, 1.4–3.6) per 100,000 person-years. The mortality standardized by 2000 China population census data was 0.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.3–1.9), and 0.9 per 100,000 population (95% CI, 0.5–1.7) when standardized by Segi’s WSP. Both incidence and mortality for males were higher than that for females almost in all age groups. Both rates increased steadily with age.ConclusionIn this community-based prospective cohort study, we found that the incidence of MM in China was far lower than that in American and Europe.     

Cancer incidence in the AGRICAN cohort study (2005–2011)

BackgroundNumerous studies have been conducted among farmers, but very few of them have involved large prospective cohorts, and few have included a significant proportion of women and farm workers. Our aim was to compare cancer incidence in the cohort (overall, by sex, and by work on farm, occupational status and pesticide use) within the general population.MethodsMore than 180,000 participants in the AGRICAN cohort were matched to cancer registries to identify cancer cases diagnosed from enrolment (2005–2007) to 31st December 2011. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs).ResultsOver the period, 11,067 incident cancer cases were identified (7304 men and 3763 women). Overall cancer incidence did not differ between the cohort and the general population. Moreover, SIRs were significantly higher for prostate cancer (SIR = 1.07, 95%CI 1.03–1.11) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 1.09, 95%CI 1.01–1.18) among men, skin melanoma among women (SIR = 1.23, 95%CI 1.05–1.43) and multiple myeloma (men: SIR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.18–1.62; women: SIR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.02–1.54). In contrast, SIRs were lower for upper aerodigestive tract and respiratory cancers. Increase in risk was greater in male farm workers for prostate and lip cancer, in female farm workers for skin melanoma, and in male farm owners for multiple myeloma. Moreover, incidence of multiple myeloma and skin melanoma was higher among male and female pesticide users respectively.ConclusionWe found a decreased incidence for tobacco-related cancers and an increased incidence of prostate cancers, skin melanoma and multiple myeloma. Specific subgroups had a higher cancer incidence related to occupational status and pesticide use.     

Increasing burden of melanoma in Croatia

Melanoma consists 4-5% of all skin cancers, but it contributes to 71-80% of skin cancers deaths. It is controversial whether worldwide increases in melanoma incidence represent a true epidemic but at the same time that dramatic increase in incidence occur in setting of relatively stable mortality trends, observed in Croatia also. The majority of authors accept that main risk factors for melanoma relate to environmental exposure and genetics with epidemiologic studies linking sun exposure to melanoma development. Data were obtained from Croatian cancer register for patients diagnosed between 1999 and 2008, for malignant melanoma of the skin (ICD-10 code C43) at national level and from 2003 to 2008, at the County level (Primorsko-goranska County). Melanoma incidence nearly doubled in males from 8.75 to 13.4/10(5) per year, fold in females from 9.1 at the start of observation to the end of 12.0/10(5) per year in Croatia. Melanoma incidence rates were much more higher for Primorsko-goranska County with range from 10.1 to 17.5/10(5) per year. The greatest increase of melanoma incidence rates was in males 60 years and over year group at diagnosis. National comparison of variation in cancer incidence by region and age can provide basis for public health prevention. It requires the integration of information on risk factors, incidence that could help to reduce regional inequalities in incidence and reduce the future cancer incidence.     

Changes in prostate cancer incidence,mortality and survival in relation to prostate specific antigen testing in New South Wales,Australia

BackgroundTo examine changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates, and 5-year relative survival, in relation to changes in the rate of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening tests and the use of radical prostatectomy (RP) in the Australian population.MethodsProstate cancer stage-specific incidence rates, 5-year relative survival and mortality rates were estimated using New South Wales Cancer Registry data. PSA screening test rates and RP/Incidence ratios were estimated from Medicare Benefits Schedule claims data. We used multiple imputation to impute stage for cases with “unknown” stage at diagnosis. Annual percentage changes (APC) in rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression.ResultsTrends in the age-standardized incidence rates for localized disease largely mirrored the trends in PSA screening test rates, with a substantial ‘spike’ in the rates occurring in 1994, followed by a second ‘spike’ in 2008, and then a significant decrease from 2008 to 2015 (APC −6.7, 95% CI −8.2, −5.1). Increasing trends in incidence rates were observed for regional stage from the early 2000s, while decreasing or stable trends were observed for distant stage since 1993. The overall RP/Incidence ratio increased from 1998 to 2003 (APC 9.6, 95% CI 3.8, 15.6), then remained relatively stable to 2015. The overall 5-year relative survival for prostate cancer increased from 58.4% (95% CI: 55.0–61.7%) in 1981–1985 to 91.3% (95% CI: 90.5–92.1%) in 2011–2015. Prostate cancer mortality rates decreased from 1990 onwards (1990–2006: APC −1.7, 95% CI −2.1, −1.2; 2006–2017: APC −3.8, 95% CI −4.4, −3.1).ConclusionsOverall, there was a decrease in the incidence rate of localized prostate cancer after 2008, an increase in survival over time and a decrease in the mortality rate since the 1990s. This seems to indicate that the more conservative use of PSA screening tests in clinical practice since 2008 has not had a negative impact on population-wide prostate cancer outcomes.     

Trends in advanced breast cancer incidence rates after implementation of a mammography screening program in a German population

BackgroundMammography screening programs (MSPs) aim to detect early-stage breast cancers in order to decrease the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancers and to reduce breast cancer mortality. We analyzed the time trends of advanced-stage breast cancer incidence rates in the target population before and after implementation of the MSP in a region of northwestern Germany.MethodsThe MSP in the Münster district started in October 2005. A total of 13,874 women with an incident invasive breast cancer (BC) was identified by the population-based epidemiological cancer registry between 2000 and 2013 in the target group 50–69 years. Multiple imputation methods were used to replace missing data on tumor stages (10.4%). The incidence rates for early-stage (UICC I) and advanced-stage (UICC II+) BC were determined, and Poisson regression analyses were performed to assess trends over time.ResultsThe incidence rates for UICC I breast cancers increased during the step-up introduction of the MSP and remained elevated thereafter. By contrast, after increasing from 2006 to 2008, the incidence rates of UICC II+ breast cancers decreased to levels below the pre-screening period. Significantly decreasing UICC II+ incidence rates were limited to the age group 55–69 years and reached levels that were significantly lower than incidence rates in the pre-screening period.DiscussionThe incidence rates of advanced-stage breast cancers decreased in the age groups from 55 years to the upper age limit for screening eligibility, but not in the adjacent age groups. The findings are consistent with MSP lead time effects and seem to indicate that the MSP lowers advanced-stage breast cancer rates in the target population.     

Trend breaks in incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer in the Netherlands

IntroductionThe incidence of gastric cancer declined over the past decades. Recently, unfavorable trend breaks (i.e. rise in incidence) were seen for non-cardia cancer in younger age groups in the US. It is unclear whether these also occur in other Western countries. We aimed to analyze the gastric cancer incidence trends by age, sex, subsite and stage in the Netherlands.MethodsData on all patients with gastric adenocarcinoma diagnosed from 1973 to 2011 (n = 9093) were obtained from the population-based Eindhoven cancer registry. Incidence time trends (European standardized rates per 100,000) were separately analyzed by sex, age group (<60, 60–74, and >75 years), subsite, and pathological stage. Joinpoint analyses were performed to discern trend breaks, age–period–cohort analyses to examine the influence of longitudinal and cross-sectional changes.ResultsThe incidence of non-cardia cancer declined annually by 3.5% (95% CI −3.8; −3.3). However, in males <60 years, the incidence flattened since 2006, and tended to rise in those >74 years. This pertained to corpus cancers. The incidence of cardia cancer peaked in 1985 and decreased subsequently by 2.4% (95% CI −3.2; −1.5) yearly. The absolute incidence of stage IV disease at first diagnosis initially decreased, but then remained stable over the past 15–20 years.ConclusionsThe incidence of non-cardia cancer declined over the past four decades in the Netherlands, but now seems to be stabilizing particularly in males. Unfavorable trend breaks are seen for corpus cancer in younger and older males. The trend breaks in the Netherlands are however not similar to those observed in the US.     

Trends in myeloma incidence,mortality and survival in New Zealand (1985–2016)

BackgroundMyeloma, one of the most common haematological malignancies worldwide arises in the bone marrow. Incidence rates vary by age and ethnicity but reasons behind these trends are unknown. Treatment of myeloma has changed significantly over recent decades, resulting in longer survival and decreased mortality.MethodsFrom data supplied by the Ministry of Health, all new registrations of and deaths from myeloma between 1985 and 2016 were extracted. Trends in age-specific rates were assessed using the method of Armitage. Age-standardised rates were calculated, and trends in age-adjusted rates analysed using the Mantel-Haenszel extension chi-square test. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rate ratios were calculated. Myeloma-specific survival was visualised using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable hazard ratios calculated using Cox regression.ResultsBetween 1985 and 2016, 7826 New Zealanders were registered with myeloma. Over this time the age-specific incidence of myeloma increased significantly for men, who had higher rates than women. Myeloma mortality was highest in Maori men. Men had higher mortality rates than women in all time periods. Since 1995–1999, mortality has decreased in women whereas in men it has declined since about 2000–2004. Survival has increased significantly since 1990 but Maori still have a higher risk of death than non-Maori.ConclusionThe patterns of variation in myeloma incidence, mortality and survival, as well as their trends over time may be used to assist research into the causes and management of myeloma in New Zealand.     

Differences in cancer incidence by age at diagnosis between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people for cancer types included in Australian national screening programs

BackgroundThis study examined age distributions and age-specific incidence of screened cancers by Aboriginal status in New South Wales (NSW) to consider the appropriateness of screening target age ranges.MethodsThe NSW Cancer Registry identified invasive (female) breast, cervical and bowel cancers in people diagnosed in 2001–2014.ResultsAboriginal people were younger at diagnosis with higher proportions of breast and bowel cancers diagnosed before the screening target age range (<50 years) compared with non-Aboriginal people (30.6% vs. 22.8%, and 17.3% vs. 7.3%, respectively). Age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were lower/similar for breast and bowel cancers in younger and higher in older Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people. All age-specific cervical cancer IRRs were higher for Aboriginal compared with non-Aboriginal people.ConclusionAlthough higher proportions of breast and colorectal cancers were diagnosed before screening commencement age in Aboriginal people, this does not necessarily indicate a need for earlier screening commencement. Other aspects needing consideration include benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness.     

National cancer incidence is estimated using the incidence/mortality ratio in countries with local incidence data: Is this estimation correct?

BackgroundIn countries with local cancer registration, the national cancer incidence is usually estimated by multiplying the national mortality by the incidence/mortality (I/M) ratio from pooled registries. This study aims at validating this I/M estimation in France, by a comparison with estimation obtained using the ratio of incidence over hospital discharge (I/HD) or the ratio of incidence over health insurance data (long-duration diseases, I/LDD).MethodsThis comparison was performed for 22 cancer sites over the period 2004–2006. In France, a longitudinal I/M approach was developed relying on incidence and mortality trend analyses; here, the corresponding estimations of national incidence were extracted for 2004–2006. The I/HD and I/LDD estimations were performed using a common cross-sectional methodology.ResultsThe three estimations were found similar for most cancers. The relative differences in incidence rates (vs. I/M) were below 5% for numerous cancers and below 10% for all cancers but three. The highest differences were observed for thyroid cancer (up to +21% in women and +8% in men), skin melanoma (up to +13% in women and +8% in men), and Hodgkin disease in men (up to +15%). Differences were also observed in women aged over 60 for cervical cancer. Except for thyroid cancer, differences were mainly due to the smoothing performed in the I/M approach.ConclusionOur results support the validity of I/M approaches for national estimations, except for thyroid cancer. The longitudinal version of this approach has, furthermore, the advantage of providing smoothed estimations and trend analyses, including useful birth-cohort indicators, and should thus be preferred.     

Effectiveness of population-based colorectal cancer screening programme in down-staging

BackgroundThis is the first evaluation study to assess the demographic characteristics of the colorectal cancer (CRC) cases detected in the prevalent round of the population-based Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme (CRCSP) in Hong Kong and to explore the effectiveness of the programme on the stage distribution of CRC.MethodsThis study covered the period between 28 September 2016 and 31 December 2018. Information on CRC diagnosis, age and stage at diagnosis were retrieved and reviewed by the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (HKCaR). The CRC detection rate among CRCSP-screened participants and incidence rate among the Hong Kong general population were calculated respectively. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated to measure the strength of association and quantify the effect of CRCSP on stage shift between CRCSP-detected CRC cases and an age-matched cohort of CRC cases diagnosed outside the programme.ResultsThe CRC detection rate among participants of the CRCSP during the study period was 736.0/100,000, whereas the overall CRC incidence rate among general population of similar age groups was 393.7/100,000. For all ages and both sexes, the OR of stage I CRCSP-detected CRC compared to the CRC from the age-matched cohort was 3.91 (95%CI=3.41–4.48) and the OR dropped to 0.54 (95%CI=0.41–0.70) at stage IV. Meanwhile, the overall OR of CRCSP-detected CRC compared to CRC from the age-matched cohort dropped from 2.24 (95%CI=1.97–2.56) to 1.62 (95%CI=1.40–1.87) with increasing age.ConclusionThe present study has demonstrated the initial impact of the CRCSP on shifting the stage at diagnosis towards earlier stage. The benefit of stage-shift was similar for all ages from 60 to 77 in both sexes and seems to increase with younger age. Given the stage-dependent survival outcomes, this stage-shift could lead to a reduction in CRC-associated mortality in Hong Kong in future.     

Association between hypertension and cutaneous melanoma,and the effect of aspirin: extended follow-up of a large randomised controlled trial

BackgroundThe association between hypertension and melanoma is unclear, and previous analyses of data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study demonstrated a reduced number of invasive melanoma events amongst aspirin-exposed hypertensive individuals.MethodsData from the ASPREE study which included (1) the intervention period with a median follow-up of 4.7 years, and (2) the observational period with an additional 2 years follow-up, were combined for this analysis. Logistic regression analyses examined the association between baseline hypertension and treatment status and past melanoma history. Survival analyses examined the association between hypertension and melanoma risk, and the effect of aspirin across hypertension groups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare incidence across groups.Results19,114 participants (median age of 74 years) were randomised to daily 100 mg aspirin or placebo. At baseline, hypertension and past melanoma history were recorded in 14,195 and 685 individuals, respectively. After adjustment for confounders, hypertension was significantly associated with past melanoma history (OR=1.34, 95%CI: 1.11–1.62). In a prospective analysis, baseline hypertension was not associated with melanoma risk. However, aspirin was associated with a reduced risk of incident melanoma amongst individuals with uncontrolled hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg; HR=0.63, 95%CI 0.44–0.89), but not in those with controlled hypertension (HR=1.04, 95%CI 0.74–1.46).ConclusionOur results support a reduced melanoma incidence amongst individuals with uncontrolled hypertension exposed to aspirin. Additional studies are required to confirm these findings.     

A population-based study of soft tissue sarcoma incidence and survival in Australia: An analysis of 26,970 cases

BackgroundSoft tissue sarcomas (STS) are rare, often fatal tumors, but little is known of the epidemiology and survival in the Australian population. This study aims to provide the first epidemiological analysis of incidence and survival rates of STS in the Australian population.MethodsA retrospective population-based observational study was conducted between 1982 and 2009 of all patients with a diagnosis of STS using the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Australian Cancer Database. Incidence rates per 100,000; incidence rate ratios, age-standardized incidence rates, prevalence and incidence rates of subtypes of STS, median, one-year and 5-year survival rates were examined.ResultsA total of 26,970 patients were identified. Between 1982 and 2009 STS incidence rates significantly increased from 3.99 [95% CI 3.68–4.32] to 6.12 [95% CI 5.80–6.46] per 100,000 Australian population, with a peak incident rate ratio (IRR) of 1.59 [95% CI 1.51–1.69] (p < 0.0001) in 2001. Median age at diagnosis increased from 58 to 63 years. Incidence rates were stable across all 10-year age cohorts, except for people aged over 70 where it increased. Overall, age-standardized incidence rates increased from 4.70 [95% CI 4.42–5.00] in 1982 to 5.87 [95% CI 5.63–6.11] per 100 000 Australians in 2009. Leiomyosarcoma (20.43%), malignant fibrous histiocytoma (16.14%), and soft tissue tumors/sarcomas, not otherwise specified (10.18%) were the most common STS subtypes. Median survival from diagnosis increased from 5.80 years [95% CI 5.06–6.54] in 1985–1989 cohort to 8.18 years [95% CI 7.54–8.81] in the 2000–2004 cohort (log-rank test p < 0.0001).ConclusionThe incidence of STS is increasing in Australia, most noticeably in those aged over 70 years, with a small but statistically significant increase in overall survival rates.     

Cutaneous malignant melanoma in Scotland: incidence,survival, and mortality, 1979-94. The Scottish Melanoma Group.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the changing incidence of and mortality from cutaneous malignant melanoma in Scotland from 1979 to 1994. DESIGN: Detailed registration of clinical and pathological features, surgical and other treatment, and follow up of all cases of cutaneous malignant melanoma diagnosed from 1979 to 1994 and registered with specialist database for Scotland. SETTING: Scotland. SUBJECTS: 6288 patients with invasive primary cutaneous malignant melanoma diagnosed between 1 January 1979 and 31 December 1994. RESULTS: The annual age standardised incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma rose significantly from 3.5 to 7.8 per 100,000 per year in men and from 6.8 to 12.3 per 100,000 per year in women (P < 0.001 for both). World standardised rates increased from 2.7 to 6.0 per 100,000 per year in men and 4.6 to 8.50 per 100,000 in women. The incidence of melanoma continued to increase significantly in men of all ages during the study, but the rate stabilised in women after 1986. Mortality from cutaneous malignant melanoma was 1.3 per million per annum in men in 1979, rising to 2.3 per million per annum in 1994 (P < 0.01); it was 2.4 per million per annum in women in 1979, falling to 1.9 per million per annum in 1994 (P = 0.09). The underlying mortality trends showed a continuing rise for men but a downward trend for women that was not significant (P = 0.09). In men, melanoma free survival was 69% at 5 years and 61% at 10 years; in women the corresponding rates were 82% and 75%. Younger patients had higher survival rates, which were not entirely explained by thinner tumours. Over the 15 year period, survival rates improved by 12% overall, only partly owing to thinner tumours. CONCLUSIONS: In Scotland the incidence of melanoma in women has stabilised, while mortality associated with melanoma in women shows a downward trend.     

Time trends and age-period-cohort analyses on incidence rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma during 1993-2007 in Wuhan, China

Background: Declines in incidence rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) were observed in Hong Kong and Taiwan but not other high-risk regions in China, while evidences from low-risk regions in China are still lacking. This study aimed to examine the time trends (1993–2007) of NPC in Wuhan (a low-risk region) and assess the birth cohort and calendar period effects on the observed temporal trends. Method: Using data from Wuhan Cancer Registry, age-standardized annual incidence rates of NPC were calculated by the direct method using the WHO World Standard Population (2000) as the reference. Trend in incidence rates of NPC during 1993–2007 was evaluated. Age–period–cohort models were also applied to assess the effects of age, calendar time and birth cohort on the observed temporal trends. Results: A total of 1685 new NPC cases (1210 males and 475 females) were diagnosed during 1993–2007 in Wuhan. The annual percentage change in incidence rates of NPC were 0.15% (95% confidence interval: ?3.88% to 4.34%) for males and ?1.17% (95% confidence interval: ?4.85% to 2.66%) for females. No obvious cohort or period effect on the incidence rates of NPC was observed. Conclusion: The incidence rates of NPC remained stable during 1993–2007 in Wuhan, a low-risk region in China.     

Trends in incidence of,and mortality from,cervical lesions in Ireland: Baseline data for future evaluation of the national cervical screening programme

AimTo investigate incidence and mortality trends for cervical lesions in Ireland in the period 1994–2008.MethodsWe used data from the National Cancer Registry, Ireland and national death registration data to calculate age-standardised rates for the periods of interest. We used standardised rate ratios to test whether incidence was associated with socio-demographic variables and used Joinpoint to examine trends by morphology grouping.ResultsIncidence of cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) rose over the period 1994–2008. The annual percentage change for cervical cancer was 1.8% and that for CIN3 was 3.8%. Women resident in the most deprived areas had invasive cervical cancer incidence almost twice as high as those resident in the least deprived areas (standardised rate ratio (SRR) = 1.8). Comparing incidence in Ireland to England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in the three years 2005–2007, the SRRs (other areas vs. Ireland) were 0.70, 0.88 and 0.84 respectively. Cervical cancer rates have fallen in these countries in the same period that there is a rise demonstrated in Ireland.ConclusionIncidence rates of cervical cancer rose in Ireland steadily, albeit modestly, during 1994–2008, most likely due to long-term changes in patterns of sexual behaviour and contraceptive use. A more pronounced rise in CIN3 rates point to considerable levels of opportunistic screening during this period. Mortality rates have changed little over the past four decades, in contrast to trends in countries with well-organised screening programmes.     

A unique gender difference in early onset melanoma implies that in addition to ultraviolet light exposure other causative factors are important

Using US SEER17 Registry data, age‐specific melanoma incidence rates were calculated and comparisons were made between males and females. Relative Risk (RR) for males and females in each age group was computed and compared with that from Nordic Cancer Registry data set and to that for non‐melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). For age groups 44 and younger, females showed higher incidence rates, with a peak difference at age 20–24 (RR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.21–3.33). Males exhibited higher incidence rates after age 44. The same bimodal gender difference was confirmed by the Nordic Cancer Registry data set, but it was not observed for NMSC, which is known to be strongly associated with cumulative exposure to solar UV radiation. We conclude that exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the major causative factor for melanoma at older age (>44 yr), but that other factors may play a role in early onset melanomas, particularly in females.     

Age,period, and cohort effects on maternal mortality: A linear logit model

Abstract

Cohort approach is used to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects on maternal mortality in New York State. By comparing various age * period * cohort linear logit models on the logits of maternal mortality rates, we conclude that period and age effects are the dominant influences on maternal mortality, and cohort effect does not contribute as much as we expect after adjustment for age and period. The implications are that, as a set, changes in those temporal variables which cut across cohorts appear to be more important than changes in those variables which distinguish them.