Simulation of potential range expansion of oak disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi under climate change

This study examines the effects of climate warming on one of the most widely distributed and destructive forest pathogens, Phytophthora cinnamomi. In Europe, the winter survival of the pathogen is the dominant cue for the development of the disease it causes to oaks, especially Quercus robur and Q. rubra. The potential pathogen and disease geographic ranges were compared in France between two reference periods, 1968–1998 and 2070–2099. Simulations were obtained by combining a physiologically based approach predicting the pathogen winter survival in relation to microhabitat temperature (in the phloem of infected trees) with a regionalized climatic scenario derived from a global circulation model. Positive anomalies in winter temperatures calculated with this scenario were in the range 0.5–5°C between the periods 2070–2099 and the 1968–1998, according to sites and months. As a consequence, higher annual rates of P. cinnamomi survival were predicted, resulting in a potential range expansion of the disease of one to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century. Based on this example, the study emphasizes the need of a better understanding of the impacts of global change on the biotic constraint constituted by plant pathogens.     

Crop production structure and stability under climate change in South America

Southern South America is expected to play an increasingly important role in global food production, but climate change could seriously threaten it. Here we have analysed long‐term historical data for major crops (rice, oats, barley, sunflower, soybean, sorghum, wheat, maize) at subnational scale to (a) look for common features among crop yield dynamics, evaluating their structure and implications for the persistence of that crop; (b) address complex crop responses to changes in environmental growing conditions; and (c) identify climate impact hotspots that are crucial for adaptation and mitigation. We have proposed a novel methodological approach based on dynamics systems in order to understand the processes behind annual crop yield fluctuations. We report the results of general patterns in the internal process (biophysical adjustments by rapid negative feedbacks) regulating crop production and analyse how it influences crop persistence and yield ceilings. The structure of a crop yield dynamic system defines its behaviour, but climate variations could displace it from yield equilibrium and affect its stability. Our findings suggest that weather conditions have a stronger impact on yield growth at high rather than at low yield levels (non‐additive impacts). This allows agriculture management to be refined and applied more efficiently, weakening the relationship between crop productivity and climate change and predicting the response of crop production to yield‐improvement strategies. We have identified those crops and regions which are most vulnerable to the current climate change trends in southern South American agroecosystems. Our results allow us to point to new ways to enhance self‐regulatory success, maximising the efficiency of crop production and reducing climate impacts. We have discussed important implications for crop management and climate change mitigation in an area where agriculture plays a key role in its socioeconomic and ecologic dimensions.     

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species'' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.     

Net primary production, carbon storage and climate change in Chinese biomes

Net primary production (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) of Chinese biomes were simulated by BIOME3 under the present climate, and their responses to climate change and doubled CO₂ under a future climatic scenario using output from Hadley Center coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model with CO₂ modelled at 340 and 500 ppmv. The model estimated annual mean NPP of the biomes in China to be between 0 and 1270.7 gC m^‐2 yr^‐1 at present. The highest productivity was found in tropical seasonal and rain forests while temperate forests had an intermediate NPP, which is higher than a lower NPP of temperate savannas, grasslands and steppes. The lowest NPP occurred in desert, alpine tundra and ice/polar desert in cold or arid regions, especially on the Tibetan Plateau. The lowest monthly NPP of each biome occurred generally in February and the highest monthly NPP occurred during the summer (June to August). The annual mean NPP and LAI of most of biomes at changed climate with CO₂ at 340 and 500 ppmv (direct effects on physiology) would be greater than present. The direct effects of carbon dioxide on plant physiology result in significant increase of LAI and NPP. The carbon storage of Chinese biomes at present and changed climates was calculated by the carbon density and vegetation area method. The present estimates of carbon storage are totally 175.83 × 10¹² gC (57.57 × 10¹² gC in vegetation and 118.28 × 10¹² gC in soils). Changed climate without and with the CO₂ direct physiological effects will result in an increase of carbon storage of 5.1 and 16.33 × 10¹², gC compared to present, respectively. The interaction between elevated CO₂ and climate change plays an important role in the overall responses of NPP and carbon to climate change.     

Limited resources and evolutionary learning may help to understand the mistimed reproduction in birds caused by climate change

We present an agent-based model inspired by the Evolutionary Minority Game (EMG), albeit strongly adapted, to the case of competition for limited resources in ecology. The agents in this game become able, after some time, to predict the a priori best option as a result of an evolution-driven learning process. We show that a self-segregated social structure can emerge from this process, i.e., extreme learning strategies are always favoured while intermediate learning strategies tend to die out. This result may contribute to understanding some levels of organization and cooperative behaviour in ecological and social systems. We use the ideas and results reported here to discuss an issue of current interest in ecology: the mistimings in egg laying observed for some species of bird as a consequence of their slower rate of adaptation to climate change in comparison with that shown by their prey. Our model supports the hypothesis that habitat-specific constraints could explain why different populations are adapting differently to this situation, in agreement with recent experiments.     

Tritrophic interactions in the context of climate change: a model of grasses, cereal Aphids and their parasitoids

Biologists have been challenged to envisage the likely consequences of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and the suite of accompanying environmental changes (e.g. rising temperature, changing rainfall patterns, etc.) on our biotic systems. Research to date on plant responses has been extensive, but work on herbivore responses has been less complete, and work on higher trophic levels nearly nonexistent. One group of herbivores that has been reasonably well studied is aphids, and at least for this group, researchers have even begun to investigate responses at higher trophic levels, to include parasitoids. In this paper, we develop a mechanistic mathematical model of the general interaction between grasses, cereal aphids and their parasitoids. We used this model to investigate the interacting effects of rising CO₂ and temperature. The model suggests that, while parasitoids do have an impact on the aphid colony population dynamics, they do not fundamentally alter the aphid response to climate change. The model predicts that for both aphids and their parasitoids, the population responses to combined effects of elevated CO₂ and temperature will be more similar to current ambient conditions than we might expect from the individual effects of CO₂ or temperature increases. This interaction has important consequences for the interpretation of results from experiments that study only the effect of rising CO₂.     

Impact of climate change on grassland production and soil carbon worldwide

The impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ was modelled for 31 temperate and tropical grassland sites, using the CENTURY model. Climate change increased net primary production, except in cold desert steppe regions, and CO₂ increased production everywhere. Climate change caused soil carbon to decrease overall, with a loss of 4 Pg from global grasslands after 50 years. Combined climate change and elevated CO₂ increased production and reduced global grassland C losses to 2 Pg, with tropical savannas becoming small sinks for soil C. Detection of statistically significant change in plant production would require a 16% change in measured plant production because of high year to year variability in plant production. Most of the predicted changes in plant production are less than 10%.     

中国水稻生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性

有效的适应措施需要了解两类基础信息,一是农业生产所面临的各种气候变异风险,二是作物产量对潜在气候变异风险的反应及其机制.评价作物生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性,可以在时间上和空间上揭示气候变化的趋势及作物产量对其的反应,从而为适应行动的全面开展提供基础信息.通过分析1981-2007年水稻生育期3个气候因子(平均温度、日较差、辐射)的变化对水稻产量的影响,评估我国水稻生产对这3个气候因子变化的敏感性和脆弱性及其区域分布状况.结果表明,1981-2007年间我国大部分水稻产区生育期内3个气候因子均发生了明显变化,存在着气候变异风险,其中以最高温的变化最普遍和明显,导致水稻生产中高温热害风险增加.部分区域水稻产量变化与单一气象因子的变化存在着显著的线性相关,这些地区气候因子的变化可以一定程度地解释水稻产量变化趋势,其中产量变化对辐射变化最敏感.当水稻生育期内平均温度上升1℃、日较差升高1℃、辐射下降10％时,我国部分地区水稻产量随之发生了相应的变化,其中辐射降低导致我国水稻生产的脆弱面积最大,其次为日较差.受3种气象因子变化趋势的综合影响,约有30％的水稻产区对1981-2007年的气候变化趋势敏感,少部分地区表现为脆弱,但水稻主产区受到的影响不大,且在东北地区还集中表现出产量增加的趋势,为我国水稻发展提供了契机.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化V.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961-2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明:研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4℃·(10 a)-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10℃积温在3200℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001-2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

气候变化对甘肃省粮食生产的影响研究进展

甘肃省气候自1986年起向整体暖干化、局部暖湿化转型突变.与1960年相比,转型后2010年平均气温升高了1.1 ℃,平均降水量减少了28 mm,干旱半干旱区南移约50 km.气候变暖使甘肃省主要作物生育期有效积温增加,生长期延长,熟性、布局和种植制度改变,宜种区和种植海拔增加,多熟制北移,夏粮面积缩小,秋粮面积增大.弱冬性、中晚熟品种逐步取代强冬性、中早熟品种,有利于提高光温利用率,增加产量.暖湿型气候增加了绿洲灌区作物的气候生产力,暖干型气候降低了雨养农业区的气候产量,水分和肥力条件是决定因素.以提高有限降水利用率和利用效率、改善和提升土壤质量及肥力为核心,选育强抗逆、弱冬性、中晚熟、高水分利用效率的作物新品种,建立适温、适水的种植结构和种植制度,是甘肃省应对气候变化进行粮食生产的主要发展方向.     

Dynamic change in photosynthetic pigments and chlorophyll degradation elicited by cereal aphid feeding

The concentration of photosynthetic pigments (i.e., chlorophylls a and b, and carotenoids) and chlorophyll degradation enzyme (i.e., chlorophyllase, oxidative bleaching, and Mg-dechelatase) activities on aphid-damaged and non-damaged regions of the infested leaves were determined with two infestation periods (6 and 12 days). Russian wheat aphid [Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko) (Hemiptera: Aphididae)] feeding caused significant losses of chlorophylls a and b and carotenoids in the damaged regions. However, bird cherry-oat aphid [Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae)] feeding did not, except a significantly lower level of carotenoids was observed in the damaged regions from the short-infestation (6-day) samples. Interestingly, the non-damaged regions of D. noxia-infested leaves on both sampling dates had a significant increase of chlorophylls a and b and carotenoid concentrations when compared with the uninfested leaves. Although D. noxia feeding did not cause any changes in either chlorophyll a/b or chlorophyll (a+b)/carotenoid ratio between the damaged and non-damaged leaf regions on short-infestation (6-day) samples, a significantly lower chlorophyll a/b ratio was detected in long-infestation (12-day) samples. The assays of chlorophyllase and oxidative bleaching activities showed no significant differences between the damaged and non-damaged regions of the infested leaves on either sampling date. Mg-dechelatase activity, however, was significantly higher in D. noxia-damaged than non-damaged leaf regions from the short-infestation samples, while no differences were detected from the long-infestation samples. Furthermore, the long-infestation samples showed that Mg-dechelatase activity from both D. noxia-damaged and non-damaged regions increased significantly in comparison with the respective regions of either uninfested or R. padi-infested leaves. We infer that non-damaged regions of D. noxia-infested leaves compensate for the pigment losses in the damaged regions, and that Mg-dechelatase activity changed dynamically from a localized response to a systemic response as infestation duration extends. The findings from this study on cereal aphid-elicited chlorosis (or desistance) would help us to elucidate plant resistance mechanisms, in particular plant tolerance to non-defoliating herbivory.     

The climate change implications of offshoring Finnish pulp production to South America

Purpose  

Offshoring of pulpwood production outside Europe is more and more common, which increases transport distances and also changes production technologies, raw material supply and energy production profiles. In this paper, we aim to compare the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of pulp production from Finnish boreal hardwood and from South American eucalyptus. Special emphasis was placed on analysing the contribution of transport to overall climate impacts.     

Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

Recently, climate change research in ecology has embraced the use of large-scale climate indices in long-term, retrospective studies. In most instances, these indices are related to large-scale teleconnection and atmospheric patterns of which over a dozen have been identified. Although most of these relate to different geographical areas, many are related and interact. Consequently, even the simple task of selecting one to use in ecological research has become complicated, despite our ability to disentangle the results from analyses involving large-scale climate indices. Leaning upon recent reviews of the definition and functioning of large-scale climate indices, as well as reviews on the relationship between these and concomitant changes in ecological variables, we focus here on the usefulness of large-scale climate indices in different aspects of climate change ecology. By providing a general framework for using climate indices, we illustrate the potential advantages of their utility by integrating three case histories focusing on two groups of evolutionarily distinct organisms: birds and mammals.     

Ecology: pollinator-plant synchrony tested by climate change

Flowering plants could lose their pollination service if climate warming potentially uncouples timing of flowering from pollinator availability. Recent evidence might suggest this effect may be less than feared.     

气候变化背景下我国农业热量资源的变化趋势及适应对策

根据区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2气候情景（2011-2050年）以及基准气候时段（1961-1990年）的逐日资料,对2011-2050年我国农业热量资源的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明: 与1961-1990年相比,未来A2气候情景下,2011-2050年我国大部分地区的平均无霜期日数延长趋势明显,主要表现为终霜冻日的提前和初霜冻日的推迟;各地日均气温稳定通过0 ℃的持续日数也明显延长,大部分地区延长了1～14 d,其中2041-2050年,青藏地区大部、长江中下游地区大部、甘新地区西部和西南地区北部均可延长49 d;我国大部分地区≥0 ℃积温均呈增加趋势.为适应未来农业热量资源的变化,应进一步调整农业种植制度、优化农业生产布局和发展生物技术等,以实现我国农业的可持续发展.