渤海湾港口生态风险评估

以天津港为例,利用相对风险模型(RRM)对渤海湾港口生态风险进行评价。根据RRM,将天津港划分为北疆、南疆、东疆和临港等4个风险小区。在每一风险小区中,选取2种生境类型(滩涂和近海水体)、2种风险源(船舶运输和港口码头)和3种生态终点(底栖动物、浮游植物、浮游动物),以此计算生态风险值,根据风险值高低分为高、较高、中等、低和弱5个等级。评价结果表明,在两种风险源中,船舶运输风险相对较大;在生境中,近海水体的风险值远大于滩涂;在生态终点中,风险高低为底栖动物浮游植物浮游动物。天津港生态风险可以划分为3个等级:北疆为高风险区、南疆为较高风险区、东疆和临港均为中等风险区。     

区域生态风险评价的关键问题与展望

区域生态风险评价具有多风险因子、多风险受体、多评价终点、强调不确定性因素以及空间异质性的特点,它与传统的生态风险评价在风险源、胁迫因子和评价尺度上具有明显区别。尝试建立了一个基于陆地生态系统的区域生态风险评价框架,同时针对目前区域生态风险评价的研究现状,指出不确定性分析、尺度外推难、评价指标不统一、评价标准不统一、风险因子筛选及优先排序、区域内污染物复合、水生过渡到陆生生态系统风险评价、特殊的人为因素等是目前区域生态风险评价存在的关键问题及难点所在,并提出解决这些问题可能所需的工具、手段和理论方法突破。最后指出区域生态风险观测与数据采集加工、区域生态风险指标体系的统一与整合、区域生态风险评价方法论、区域生态风险的空间分布特征与表达以及区域生态风险评价反馈与管理机制5个方面是区域生态风险评价未来的研究重点。     

广东省川山群岛开发利用生态风险评价

随着海洋经济的迅猛发展,海岛的开发利用程度不断加大,海岛生态环境遭到极大地冲击和破坏,导致海岛生态系统出现环境恶化、灾害加剧的趋势。广东省川山群岛,主岛为上川岛和下川岛,因岛上旅游娱乐和养殖用海等开发利用活动频繁,使其生态系统面临严峻的挑战。根据EPA提出的生态风险评价框架,分析了川山群岛的生态终点、生境类型和压力源状况,构建了一个用以描述川山群岛压力源、生境和评估终点间相互关系的概念模型,采用RRM模型思想进行了川山群岛开发利用风险评价。结果表明:上川岛属于开发利用的高风险区,主要风险区域是潮间带和近海两个生态子系统,其中以岩滩的开发利用压力最大,旅游娱乐和养殖用海是风险压力的主要来源,珍稀水禽是主要受威胁的物种;下川岛较上川岛的开发利用风险低,其岛陆、潮间带和近海3个生态子系统的开发利用压力都不大,养殖用海、旅游娱乐和城镇用地是风险压力的主要来源,也是威胁珍稀水禽和猛禽的主要压力源。基于此,从旅游管理、养殖用海管理等方面给出了上川岛和下川岛的风险管理对策,以期为海岛环境保护和可持续利用提供科学依据。     

区域生态风险评价方法研究进展

生态风险评价是近十几年逐渐兴起并得到发展的一个研究领域,区域生态风险评价作为生态风险评价的组成部分,由于其空间异质性和评价过程的复杂性,而成为了研究的难点与热点。本文综述了生态风险评价和区域生态风险评价的概念、方法和实践研究的进展,总结了具有代表性的生态风险评价概念模型框架和步骤以及物理、数学和计算机模拟等评价方法;归纳了区域生态风险评价的概念模型、PETAR方法以及相对风险评价模型等;介绍了针对多样化的风险源、风险受体和评价数据源类型的不同而进行的实践案例研究。针对目前研究中存在评价阈值确定、暴露和危害分析、定量表征、不确定性处理等方面的问题,提出需进一步研究和探讨区域生态风险评价的指标体系、评价标准、定量化方法与技术以及风险效应表征等。     

基于生态系统服务的城市化区域生态风险表征方法研究

快速城市化导致城市周边区域生态系统服务损失并引发生态风险。以多种类型的生态系统服务作为生态风险的评价终点,构建了基于服务价值量的城市化区域生态风险表征方法,以北京市为例对方法进行了应用,并进行了风险评价结果的不确定性分析和参数敏感性分析。案例研究显示2015年北京市生态风险总体处于低风险接近中等风险水平,低风险和极低风险区域面积占全市的50%以上,主要分布于北京市西部和北部,高风险和极高风险区域面积占20%左右,主要分布于中心城区。生态风险空间格局特征表明北京市城市区域的扩张造成周边区域生态系统服务的下降,导致生态风险水平的上升。研究提出的生态风险指数同生态系统服务当量因子间具有显著的线性关系,可用于估算生态系统服务价值。不确定性和参数敏感性分析表明生态风险指数计算结果变异较小,指数具有较高的可靠性。研究方法能够综合表征城市化区域的生态风险,定量表征结果便于决策者理解,具有应用于风险评价和管理实践的价值。     

生态风险评价研究进展

20多年来,生态风险评价研究经历了从环境风险到生态风险到区域生态风险评价的发展历程,风险源由单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体由单一受体发展到多受体,评价范围由局地扩展到区域景观水平.区域生态风险评价就是大尺度上研究复杂环境背景下包含多风险源、多风险受体的综合风险研究.目前,区域生态风险评价的理论框架已经搭建起来,统计方法多采用相对评价法.区域生态风险评价未来的发展方向为继续加强实验和野外调查,进一步减小不确定性,逐步解决尺度推移问题.区域生态风险评价必须与经济、社会、文化相结合,才能充分发挥它在管理决策中的作用.     

高潜水位煤矿区生态风险识别与评价

生态风险评价是生态环境保护与管理的重要研究内容,并广泛运用于流域与较大范围的区域尺度的研究。以区域生态风险评价理论为基础,结合高潜水位煤矿区生态环境以及煤炭开采对生态系统造成的危害的特点,通过分析风险源、风险受体、生态终点以及暴露—响应过程,对高潜水位煤矿区生态风险的识别与评价方法进行了研究,构建了典型高潜水位煤矿区的生态风险识别与评价概念模型与空间分析框架,分析了煤矿区生态风险识别的主要技术手段与方法,并构建了以缓冲为主要手段的综合生态风险评价方法。选择山东东滩煤矿作为研究对象,针对研究区内存在的采煤塌陷、洪涝、污染、景观及社会等生态风险类型,定量评价其空间差异,并提出相应的风险防范措施。案例分析结果表明,研究区综合生态风险重度、中度、一般、轻度分别占到研究区的4.70%,64.00%,24.09%,7.20%。生态风险较高的区域主要位于矿区中西部,为煤矸石山、裸露煤炭堆积与发电厂分布区域;中度风险是研究区主要的风险类型。从降低生态风险保障矿区生态安全角度,在未来矿区规划与生态治理过程中,提出了具体的应对措施,包括:(1)注重源头控制;(2)建立高生态风险区域阻隔带;(3)加强污染的监测与控制;(4)采用边开采边治理技术。建议加强生态风险高区域的阻隔,建立生态缓冲带,减缓对整个矿区的综合影响,构建东滩煤矿生态风险防范的空间结构。     

环渤海五省市生态风险评价

生态风险评价是近20年来兴起的一个研究热点,是地理学、生态学、环境风险评价等领域的综合交叉点。对生态风险进行研究,有助于了解研究区内的生态环境状况,从而降低生态风险,改善人地关系。环渤海地区是人地矛盾非常突出的典型区域。本文参考美国环保署(USEPA)的框架,根据相对风险评价模型的分级排序思想,评估环渤海五省市的单项及综合生态风险值。采用生态资产表征生态终点,进行风险受体的损失度量;通过构建评价指标体系,采用主成分分析和ArcGIS加权叠加的方法,进行受体环境的脆弱性评价;基于土地利用和植被斑块数据,利用景观格局指数法评价生态系统的结构易损性。结果表明:海陆交错带、山地丘陵区和城市是典型的高生态风险区域;低风险区域主要分布在地形、水热、植被状况好、灾害频次低的平原和部分丘陵地区。对于高风险的区域,做好风险防范至关重要。     

多尺度滑坡灾害生态风险评价与风险管理——以三峡库区万州-巫山段为例

进行生态风险多尺度综合评价，对环境管理及风险决策具有重要意义。以三峡库区滑坡重点监测县域为例，基于“危险性-脆弱性-潜在损失”三维模型，以随机森林模型评估滑坡危险性，采用景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性，利用生境质量核算潜在生态损失，进行格网、行政、子流域多尺度下的滑坡灾害生态风险评价，提出适合各尺度的风险管理措施，在此基础上选择最适宜尺度并结合研究区实际情况进行验证。结果表明，生态风险等级较高区域集中于长江两岸沿线，三峡库区建设对研究区滑坡生态风险产生较大影响；两两尺度风险分布结果具有一定相似性，而三种尺度共同作用结果又存在一定差异；子流域尺度在保证生态结构完整性的前提下评价结果好于其他两种尺度，更适合三峡库区县域的生态风险评价；研究区东部风险防范类型相对单一，而西部风险防范类型较多，需做到精细化管理。研究增加了多尺度综合评价实例，对今后开展整个三峡库区滑坡生态风险研究奠定一定理论和实践基础。     

西藏高原拉萨河流域生态风险评估

随着我国西部崛起战略的实施,社会经济发展所引发的生态风险逐渐引起生态学者和政府管理部门的高度关注。拉萨河流域作为高原生物多样性的维持基地,也是我国及东亚的重要生态安全屏障区,为有效管控其社会经济发展中产生的生态环境风险,通过适合高寒流域特征的风险评估方法,识别了研究区风险源,选择风险受体,采用相对风险模型计算了各研究单元的风险等级。结果表明:城关区的生态风险最高,主要风险来源于城镇扩张和旅游娱乐;当雄县生态风险最低,风险来源于畜牧养殖;林周县、曲水县、达孜县、堆龙德庆区以及墨竹工卡县的首要风险源是农业污染。水体和湿地的风险值明显高于其他生态系统。风险值的空间分布表现为南高北低的特征,且风险等级以城关区为中心向外围逐渐降低。     

冬奥会对举办城市生态环境的影响研究进展

冬季奥林匹克运动会被认为是促进举办城市可持续发展转型升级的催化剂,但在给举办城市带来经济、社会、文化、环境进一步发展的同时,也将带来各种不利影响和风险。关于冬奥会影响的学术研究早期主要集中在经济、社会和文化方面,近年来才转向对城市结构和功能、生态系统保护、环境保护、可持续发展和遗产管理等影响的研究。但国内外学术界关于冬奥会给举办城市、环境及其可持续发展造成影响的研究仍比较匮乏。通过对历届冬奥会对主办城市的生态环境及可持续发展的影响以及环境保护的关注度进行综述,分析冬奥会生态环境影响研究方面的主要进展,并提出未来生态环境保护方面需要关注的重点研究领域和问题,包括开展冬奥会全生命周期环境影响评价,关注和实施全过程环境风险管理,加强冬奥会环境和可持续发展监测和评估,构建冬奥会环境制度体系、可持续共治机制,以期为我国举办2022冬奥会提供经验参考。     

A Regional Multiple Stressor Risk Assessment of the Codorus Creek Watershed Applying the Relative Risk Model

The relative risk model (RRM) used in Port Valdez, AK, and in Oregon's Willamette/McKenzie Watershed was applied to the Codorus Creek Watershed in south central Pennsylvania. The assessment evaluated the relative risk model for its applicability for ranking ecological risks within the Codorus Creek Watershed. The Codorus Creek Watershed approach included ranking stressors and habitats for regions within the watershed. Geographical Information Systems were vital in compiling and comparing stressor and habitat spatial data from regions in the watershed. The risk of ecological impacts to degrade assessment endpoints were calculated and ranked by quantitatively determining the interactions of the stressors and habitats as defined in the conceptual site model. Uncertainty assessment was conducted and the impact upon the relative ranks and risk conclusions evaluated. To determine regional risks, risk management information was gathered identifying areas to be protected, areas of high stress, and areas where additional information is needed. The results supported the applicability of the RRM and suggested areas and stressors for restoration efforts in the Codorus Creek Watershed. Two critical sets of conclusions were drawn from the assessment. First, in the Codorus Creek Watershed, the most significant stressor is agriculture land use, the most significantly impacted endpoint is water quality, and the most vulnerable habitats are those for macroinvertebrates and warm-water fish. Second, this risk assessment demonstrates the feasibility of using the RRM for assessing risk from multiple stressors on habitats with multiple assessment endpoints in an eastern watershed.     

Regional ecological risk assessment using a relative risk model: A case study of the Darwin Harbour,Darwin, Australia

There are many proposed and ongoing commercial, industrial, and residential developments within the Darwin Harbour catchment in Northern Australia, to accommodate the projected population growth over the next 20 years. Hence, it is necessary to ensure the balance between these developments and ecosystem conservation. We evaluated ecological risk for the Darwin Harbour using a relative risk model (RRM). The catchment was divided into 22 risk regions based on small catchment boundaries and their homogeneity. Through the RRM, we ranked and summed the stressors and habitats within regions. The interaction between stressors and habitats were modeled through exposure and effect filters. The ecological assessment endpoints were maintenance of the mangrove health and the maintenance of water quality. The risk regions—Myrmidon Creek, Blackmore River, Bleesers Creek, and Elizabeth River—showed the highest total relative risk for ecological assets. These risk regions had a high percentage cover of industrial, commercial, and residential areas; diffuse entry points; and climate change effects. Creek A, Sandy Creek, West Arm, and Pioneer Creek were the risk regions with lowest total relative risk scores. The RRM is a robust application that is suitable for a large geographic area where multiple stressors are of concern.     

Risk assessment of land ecology on a regional scale: Application of the relative risk model to the mining city of Daye,China

The ecological risk assessment of land ecosystems plays a vital role in land environment protection and management in China. To identify the ecological impairment in land ecosystems, risk assessment of regional land ecology was conducted in Daye, a traditional mining city in Central China, using the relative risk model (RRM). The study area was divided into six sub-regions; and the sources, stressors, habitats, and end points of the impairment were identified. A conceptual model was built to represent the ecological interactions among risk components. Results showed the following: (1) The traditional iron–coal mining sub-region and the mineral processing sub-region exhibited high risk. (2) Mining was the largest risk source, followed by solid waste piling and urbanization. (3) Disappearance of habitats was the greatest risk stressor, followed by the accumulation of pollutants and heavy metals. (4) Among the eight identified habitats, the lake habitat was the most likely to be affected. (5) Health threats, soil contamination, and landscape aesthetic dysfunctions appeared to be the end points under the largest risk pressure. Finally, Monte Carlo analysis was used to evaluate the effects of uncertainty on risk model predictions. Our assessment model was proven to be generally valid for regional land ecology risk assessment.     

Developing A Regional Ecological Risk Assessment: A Case Study of a Tasmanian Agricultural Catchment

A regional ecological risk assessment was conducted for the Mountain River catchment in Tasmania, Australia. The Relative Risk Model was used in conjunction with geographic information systems interpretations. Stakeholder values were used to develop assessment endpoints, and regional stressors and habitats were identified. The risk hypotheses expressed in the conceptual model were that agriculture and land clearing for rural residential are producing multiple stressors that have potential for contamination of local waterbodies, eutrophication, changes in hydrology, reduction in the habitat of native flora and fauna, reductions in populations of beneficial insects in agricultural production systems, increased weed competition in pastures, and loss of aesthetic value in residential areas. In the risk analysis the catchment was divided into risk regions based on topography and land use. Stressors were ranked on likelihood of occurrence, while habitats were ranked on percentage land area. Risk characterization showed risks to the maintenance of productive primary industries were highest across all risk regions, followed by maintenance of a good residential environment and maintenance of fish populations. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the variability in risk outcomes stemming from uncertainty about stressors and habitats. Outcomes from this assessment provide a basis for planning regional environmental monitoring programs.     

A Pilot Application of Regional Scale Risk Assessment to the Forestry Management of the Upper Grande Ronde Watershed,Oregon

An issue in forestry management has been the integration of a variety of different information into a threat analysis or risk assessment. In this instance, regional scale risk assessment was applied to the Upper Grande Ronde watershed in eastern Oregon to examine the potential of risk assessment for use in the management of broad landscapes. The site was a focus of study for the U.S. Forest Service through the Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) project. In the study, a range of stressors, habitats, and endpoints were identified from previous studies in the watershed, and endpoints were determined from meeting with the primary stakeholder, the U.S. Forest Service. These endpoints were focused around the historic range of variability (HRV) defined for the area. The relative risk model (RRM) incorporating a Monte Carlo analysis was used as the analysis tool. The risk model output showed the HRV fire regime was the endpoint most at risk. The results of this analysis were compared to the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest prioritization of watershed restoration analysis. The RRM demonstrated similar results but with a better accounting for uncertainty. From this trial the RRM has proven to be a potential management tool for forestry management.     

Smoke Rings: Towards a Comprehensive Tobacco Free Policy for the Olympic Games

Background

The tobacco industry has long sought affiliation with major sporting events, including the Olympic Games, for marketing, advertising and promotion purposes. Since 1988, each Olympic Games has adopted a tobacco-free policy. Limited study of the effectiveness of the smoke-free policy has been undertaken to date, with none examining the tobacco industry’s involvement with the Olympics or use of the Olympic brand.

Methods and Findings

A comparison of the contents of Olympic tobacco-free policies from 1988 to 2014 was carried out by searching the websites of the IOC and host NOCs. The specific tobacco control measures adopted for each Games were compiled and compared with measures recommended by the WHO Tobacco Free Sports Initiative and Article 13 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This was supported by semi-structured interviews of key informants involved with the adoption of tobacco-free policies for selected games. To understand the industry’s interests in the Olympics, the Legacy Tobacco Documents Library (http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu) was systematically searched between June 2013 and August 2014. Company websites, secondary sources and media reports were also searched to triangulate the above data sources.This paper finds that, while most direct associations between tobacco and the Olympics have been prohibited since 1988, a variety of indirect associations undermine the Olympic tobacco-free policy. This is due to variation in the scope of tobacco-free policies, limited jurisdiction and continued efforts by the industry to be associated with Olympic ideals.

Conclusions

The paper concludes that, compatible with the IOC’s commitment to promoting healthy lifestyles, a comprehensive tobacco-free policy with standardized and binding measures should be adopted by the International Olympic Committee and all national Olympic committees.     

A Regional Multiple-Stressor Rank-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for the Fjord of Port Valdez,Alaska

We conducted an ecological risk assessment of the marine environment of Port Valdez, a fjord in south-central Alaska. Because the assessment was regional rather than site-specific and contained a large number of different stressors in a variety of environments, we required a nontraditional method to estimate risks. We created a Relative Risk Model to rank and sum individual risks numerically within each subarea, from each source, and to each habitat. Application of this model involved division of Port Valdez into 11 subareas containing specific ecological and anthropogenic structures and activities. Within each subarea, the stressor sources were analyzed to estimate exposure of receptors within habitats leading to effects relevant to the chosen assessment endpoints. The subareas were analyzed and compared to form a Port-wide perspective of ecological risk. Available chemical concentrations from sediment and mussels collected from the Port were compared to various toxicological benchmarks as a partial confirmation of the risk analysis. An estimation of the risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to marine invertebrates indicated low risk. The municipal boat harbor had the highest estimate, which reflected our relative risk rankings. The Relative Risk Model approach appears robust and has potential for use in situations where multiple stressors are of concern and for assessments covering broad geographic areas. In the Port Valdez assessment the approach provided relative risk rankings for chemical and physical stressors from various sources. But data were available for confirmation of risk estimates only for the chemical stressors. The rankings are relative, and extrapolation beyond the scenario in which they were developed is not warranted. Uncertainty is large, and the numerical scores collapse a multidimensional space into a single value. Use of just the numerical score out of context is more valid than with other indexes. The value of the approach lies in the relative rankings and the accounting of the components of the relative risk score.     

Forest Fire Risk Analysis

Southern Europe suffers from forest fires. The management of these disasters is of importance to both government authorities and the public. This article presents the results of a research project aimed at modeling forest fire events and producing fire risk maps. The mathematical model is embedded in an ArcView Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. The interface is in Visual C++ 6.0. The thematic and individual risk maps generated are merged into an integrated risk map. The assessment platform (model, GIS, data, decision support) was applied to the area of northern Evia Island, central Greece, using five different scenarios. The platform provides a tool for use by authorities to estimate risks for forest fire management. The model was specifically adapted for the Olympic Games of 2004, Athens, Greece.     

Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.