Multi-actor multi-criteria sustainability assessment framework for energy and industrial systems in life cycle perspective under uncertainties. Part 1: weighting method

Purpose

Life cycle sustainability assessment is meaningful for the decision-makers/stakeholders to select the most sustainable option among multiple alternatives; however, there are usually various severe uncertainty problems in sustainability-oriented decision-making, i.e., the vagueness and ambiguity that existed in human judgments and the lack of information. This study aims at developing a novel life cycle multi-criteria sustainability assessment method for helping the decision-makers/stakeholders to determine the sustainability level of the industrial and energy systems. In part 1, an improved interval analytic hierarchy process (AHP) which allows multiple decision-makers/stakeholders to participate in the decision-making was developed to determine the weights of the criteria which were used in life cycle sustainability assessment.

Methods

It is usually difficult for the decision-makers/stakeholders to use the numbers from 1 to 9 and their reciprocals for determining the comparison matrix when using the traditional AHP method for weight calculation, because human judgments usually involve various uncertainties. In order to the overcome this weak point of the traditional AHP, an improved AHP, so-called interval AHP, in which, multiple decision-makers/stakeholders are allowed to participate in the decision-making and allowed to use interval numbers instead of crisp numbers to establish the comparison matrix for determining the weights of the criteria for life cycle sustainability assessment, has been developed.

Results and discussion

The proposed method was used to determine the weights of the four aspects for life cycle sustainability assessment including economic, safety, social, and environmental aspects. Five representative stakeholders were invited to participate in the decision-making. After Monte Carlo simulation, the final weights of the four aspects have been determined with the proposed interval AHP.

Conclusions and perspectives

An interval AHP method was developed for determining the weights of the criteria for life cycle sustainability assessment; the decision-makers are allowed to use interval numbers to establish the comparison matrix for weight calculation. The weighting coefficients determined by Monte Carlo method can accurately reflect the preferences and willingness of multi-actor comparing with the traditional AHP method. This paper merely presents a novel method to calculate the weights of the criteria for life cycle sustainability assessment, but the method for determining the sustainability performance has been presented in part 2.

     

Mapping indicator models: From intuitive problem structuring to quantified decision-making in sustainable forest management

Most commonly, sustainability indicator sets presented as lists do not take into account interactions among indicators in a systematic manner. Vice versa, existing environmental indicator systems do not provide a formalized approach for problem structuring and quantitative decision support. In this paper, techniques for considering indicator relationships are highlighted and a coupled approach between a qualitative and a quantitative method is analysed. Cognitive mapping (CM) is used for structuring indicators and three different causal maps are derived based on established sustainability concepts: (a) criteria and indicators (C&I hierarchy), (b) indicator network, and (c) Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) system. These maps are transferred to the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to allow their application in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).In an application example, Pan-European indicators for sustainable forest management (SFM) are utilized in an ANP-based assessment. The effects of the model structure on the overall evaluation result are demonstrated by means of three reporting periods on Austrian forestry.In a comparative analysis of CM and ANP it is tested whether their measures of indicator significance do correspond. Both centrality in CM and single limited priorities in ANP have been reported to identify key indicators that play an important role in networks. We found out that the correspondence between CM and ANP is the stronger the more rigidly cause-effect relationships are interpreted, which is the case for the DPSIR system of SFM indicators.It is demonstrated that using indicator sets without consideration of the indicator interactions will cause shortcomings for evaluation and assessment procedures in SFM. Given strict and consistent definition of causal indicator relationships, a coupled use of CM and ANP is recommendable for both enhancing the process of problem structuring as well as supporting preference-based evaluation of decision alternatives.     

Assessment of soil erosion risk using an integrated approach of GIS and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Erzurum,Turkiye

Assessing soil erosion hazards and mapping the spatial distribution of soil erosion have an essential role in sustainable forest management. In this study, the potential soil erosion risk was evaluated through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in the Oltu forest planning unit, Erzurum. Seven erosion-related criteria, including slope, bedrock type, relative relief, drainage density and frequency, rainfall, and land use/land cover (LULC) were used for the present assessment. According to the AHP analysis, the slope was the most influential factor (21%) followed by bedrock type (19%), land cover (17%), and relative relief (14%) in the soil erosion process. The soil erosion risk in the study area was strongly influenced by the LULC where 59.46% is bare land with high erosion risk and 12.07%, with the lowest risk, is in an area with any forest cover. The estimated soil erosion risk was classified into five different classes namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The results showed that this study area is highly prone to soil erosion. The larger proportion of the area (39.16%) is exposed to high to very high erosion, mainly determined by forest cover and geomorphology. To analyze the accuracy of the soil erosion risk map, 40 points were selected randomly in this study area. In these points, predicted values were compared to the real values obtained by Google Earth-colored images. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) method was applied to validate the efficiency of the AHP which showed a satisfactory accuracy of 81.00%. Findings presented that including the more influencing factors with a slope instead of including only the slope contributes to a more accurate erosion risk map. This study highlighted that GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making is a valuable and practical tool for decision-makers and land managers in creating soil erosion susceptibility maps and determining high-priority areas that require conservation measures for sustainable land use management by reducing the economic and ecological impacts of soil loss. Also, this approach can be practically applied in other planning units.     

辽西油松林水土保持效益评价

利用101块样地的调查资料,采用综合因子评价方法评价了辽西油松水土保持林的生态效益,把辽西油松水土保持林划分为低效、较低效、中效、较高效、高效五个等级：其中牛河梁地区的油松人工林大都为低效林,欺天林场的油松人工林大都为中效林,南刘杖子林场的天然次生林大都为高效林。这一研究结果将为辽西油松水土保持林生态系统管理提供重要的科学依据。     

白洋淀流域生态系统服务评估及其调控

政策制定者在制定土地利用相关政策时需要权衡各方面的利益关系,协调资源保护和经济发展之间的关系.由于缺乏有效的评价与权衡办法,目前对这方面研究还较少.采用InVEST模型,评价了白洋淀流域7种服务功能指标,分析了其空间分布特征.通过情景(政策情景与保护情景)分析,较好的反映了农业直接经济收入与服务功能之间的关系.结果表明:生物多样性、水源涵养、土壤保持和固碳重要区域主要分布在流域西部、北部和流域中部山区;水质保护和授粉重要区域主要分布于流域东部、南部和中部平原区.政策情景下,产水量第二,农业产出有所下降,固碳能力较保护模式差,N/P输出最少.保护情景下产水量最大,农田产出价值不变,氮磷保持与政策情景差不多,但固碳效果最好.通过权衡不同情景下服务功能得失,筛选既不损害流域居民实际经济收入,又能使得水文服务功能得到提高的管理模式.研究表明InVEST模型可以很好的用于对自然资本评估和空间化特征分析,通过建立不同情景,评价结果可以用于权衡不同管理策略下服务功能得失,是一种评价和预测自然资本变化的有效方法,对政策制定和策略筛选具有重要的指导意义.     

大比例尺土壤保持服务制图分级方法研究

科学地编制生态系统服务空间分布图,有助于识别生态系统优先保护热点及空缺,能够为国土安全规划提供基础信息。但由于缺乏统一科学的生态系统服务分级方法,生态系统服务分布图的展示效果和制图效率都受到限制。不恰当的分级制图会误导决策者对生态系统服务空间分布特征的判断,增加生态保护决策的不确定性。以构建生态服务制图分级标准为目标,对我国6个典型县区的土壤保持服务数据展开1：25万比例尺制图分级案例研究。采用分级精度、面积均衡性、极差一致性、空间自相关一致性4个分级质量评价指标评价并比较了目前地图编制中常用的自然断点法、几何间隔法、累积比例法、等差法、分位数法5种分级算法的分级制图效果。结果表明,6个县区有相似的土壤保持服务分布特征：低值区覆盖面积大,高值区覆盖面积小。各县区土壤保持服务制图最优分级方法有差异：延庆区、丰满区最优分级方法为自然断点法;永靖县、天山区、安宁市最优分级方法为累积比例法;富阳区最优分级方法为几何间隔法。各分级方法中,累积比例法在6个县区综合制图效果最优或接近最优,适用性最好,能够较好的刻画各县区的土壤保持服务空间分布特征。本文提出的分级评价方法及其结果,可为生态系统土壤保持服务制图规范化和自动化提供科学依据。     

盐城自然保护区的缓冲带设计——以丹顶鹤为目标种分析

自然保护区缓冲带的设计涉及生态、地形地貌等自然因素和社会、经济等因素。据此提出科学设计缓冲带的方法。根据外界因素对核心区影响程度的不同,将核心区外界分为不同区段分别进行缓冲带的设计;运用ＡＨＰ法,通过对核心区外界影响因素的分析,确定不同区段缓冲带的宽度。通过对盐城自然保护区的缓冲带设计,证明该方法具有较强的科学性及可操作性。     

Incorporating multiple criteria into the design of conservation area networks: a minireview with recommendations

We provide a review of multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods that may potentially be used during systematic conservation planning for the design of conservation area networks (CANs). We review 26 methods and present the core ideas of 19 of them. We suggest that the computation of the non-dominated set (NDS) be the first stage of any such analysis. This process requires only that alternatives be qualitatively ordered by each criterion. If the criteria can also be similarly ordered, at the next stage, Regime is the most appropriate method to refine the NDS. If the alternatives can also be given quantitative values by the criteria, Goal Programming will prove useful in many contexts. If both the alternatives and the criteria can be quantitatively evaluated, and the criteria are independent of each other but may be compounded, then multi-attribute value theory (MAVT) should be used (with preferences conveniently elicited by a modified Analytic Hierarchy Process (mAHP) provided that the number of criteria is not large).     

Introducing accessibility analysis in mapping cultural ecosystem services

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the study of the spatial link between service providing areas (SPA) and service benefiting areas (SBA). Understanding the spatial link between SPAs and SBAs is essential when studying the ecosystem service delivery and the fulfilment of ecosystem service demand. However, far too little attention has been paid to the user movement related ecosystem services and where people should be geographically situated in order to benefit from these services. In the movement related services, benefiting areas are equal to providing areas and the spatial link from residential area to SPA is important. The spatial link is addressed through the concept of accessibility which determines the opportunity to move from the area where beneficiaries are located to areas where ecosystem services are produced.This study presents an accessibility approach to the ecosystem services research. Accessibility analyses offer an opportunity to identify the gap between the ecosystems’ potential to produce services and the actual usage possibilities of such services. We demonstrate the suitability of the method by using outdoor recreation and cultural heritage as examples of cultural ecosystem services that people actively want to reach. Accessibility was calculated using a geographical information system-based least-cost path analysis, which measures travel time by car between residential location and the nearest SPA via road network.The examples highlight that accessibility varies according to the ecosystem service and depends mostly on population distribution and travel possibilities. Our results demonstrate that the density of the analysed ecosystem service opportunities is higher near urban areas than elsewhere. The accessibility of different ecosystem services also depends on how much time people are willing to spend for reaching these services. Our study emphasised that, from a population perspective, accessibility analyses provide a powerful tool for illustrating the utilisation possibilities of spatially distributed ecosystem services. The accessibility approach offers great potential to assess the potential use of SPAs and respond to the need to develop a practical tool for ecosystem service research. It effectively shows, for example, the areas where the risk of overuse of ecosystem services is increased. Knowing about the regional differences in ecosystem service usage also gives background information for the decision-makers for drawing conclusions about how much and where it is sensible to invest in the maintenance of ecosystem services.     

Identification of suitable location to cultivate grape based on disease infestation using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and remote sensing

This study aims to identify suitable regions for grape cultivation and the areas where diseases are likely to occur in Fars Province, Iran. The study employs a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy logic methods, taking into account the ecological requirements of grape plants. Fourteen essential parameters for grape cultivation are prepared, and interpolation maps are created for each parameter. Fuzzy maps are generated by defining membership functions, and AHP is utilized to compare and determine the importance of each factor to produce a final map of grape cultivation land suitability. The study reveals that grape cultivation is most suitable in the southern regions of Fars Province. Furthermore, the research identifies the areas where Powdery mildew, Gray mold, and GFLV diseases may occur based on rainfall and temperature levels. The study recommends against grape cultivation in the southern region due to the possibility of these diseases developing. The study employs a highly accurate regression method (R² = 0.968 and F = 0.00001) and principal component analysis (PCA) to determine that land suitability class strongly correlates with Tmin, NDVI, LST, Total disease, Tmean, and RH. By identifying the areas suitable for grape cultivation and where pests may flourish, the necessary management can be implemented to ensure maximum harvest in the best suitable locations for grape planting.     

雄安新区多尺度生态基础设施规划

生态基础设施是保持、改善和增加生态系统服务的条件和过程,对于提升区域生态系统服务能力具有重要意义。已有的生态基础设施规划方法主要针对单一尺度进行,不能体现生态系统服务在不同尺度间的相互影响。基于ArcGIS、最小累积阻力（MCR）模型和层次分析法（AHP）构建了一种"宏观-中观-微观"多尺度生态基础设施核心区识别和生态廊道辨识的方法体系框架。以雄安新区为例,提出生态基础设施规划方案：宏观尺度需维持气候调节、固碳释氧、保护生物多样性、防风固沙等功能的稳定,生态核心区斑块面积建议大于10 km²,生态廊道宽度设置为100-200 m;中观尺度生态核心区斑块面积不小于5 km²,宽度设置为50-100 m,可改善区域水源涵养、文化休闲、净化环境、减弱噪声等生态系统服务功能;微观尺度生态核心区斑块需大于1 km²,宽度为10-30 m,可有效控制径流、净水调蓄。得出以下结论：（1）不同尺度生态基础设施规划目标不同,规模有所差别,其中宏观尺度规模最大,微观最小;（2）多尺度规划方法,可以科学有效的指导生态基础设施建设,提高区域生态系统服务能力;（3）多尺度生态基础设施规划建设需要向多学科理论和方法的交叉融合方向发展。研究结论可为今后全面推进雄安新区的可持续发展提供科学基础和决策参考。     

Quantifying and Exploring Strategic Regional Priorities for Managing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services Given Multiple Stakeholder Perspectives

A ubiquitous problem for community-based regional environmental agencies is to set strategic management priorities among a myriad of issues and multiple stakeholder perspectives. Here, we quantify the strategic management priorities for natural capital and ecosystem services using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a case study of the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin Natural Resources Management Board (the Board) region. A natural capital and ecosystem services framework was tailored to present decision-makers with a range of potential issues for strategic consideration as goal hierarchies in MCDA. Priorities were elicited from the Board and its four regionally based consultative groups using the Analytical Hierarchy Process and swing weights. Centered log ratio transformed weights were analyzed using multiple pairwise ANOVA comparisons (Dunnett’s T3) and hierarchical cluster analysis. Substantial variation in priorities occurred between decision-makers. Nonetheless, analysis of priorities for assets and services robustly demonstrated that water was the highest priority, followed by land, then biota, with atmosphere the lowest priority. Decision-makers also considered that environmental management should not impact negatively on built or social capital. Few significant differences in priorities were found between decision-maker groups. However, clusters of manager types were found which represent distinct alternative management strategies, notably the prioritization of either intermediate or final ecosystem services. The results have implications for regional environmental decision-making and suggest that embracing variation in perspectives may be a better way forward for multistakeholder MCDA. The study operationalizes natural capital and ecosystem services by providing strategic priorities for targeting management and policy within the context of community-based, regional environmental management.     

An Integrated Approach of Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Based AHP and Fuzzy COPRAS for Machine Tool Evaluation

Globalization of business and competitiveness in manufacturing has forced companies to improve their manufacturing facilities to respond to market requirements. Machine tool evaluation involves an essential decision using imprecise and vague information, and plays a major role to improve the productivity and flexibility in manufacturing. The aim of this study is to present an integrated approach for decision-making in machine tool selection. This paper is focused on the integration of a consistent fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a fuzzy COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS) for multi-attribute decision-making in selecting the most suitable machine tool. In this method, the fuzzy linguistic reference relation is integrated into AHP to handle the imprecise and vague information, and to simplify the data collection for the pair-wise comparison matrix of the AHP which determines the weights of attributes. The output of the fuzzy AHP is imported into the fuzzy COPRAS method for ranking alternatives through the closeness coefficient. Presentation of the proposed model application is provided by a numerical example based on the collection of data by questionnaire and from the literature. The results highlight the integration of the improved fuzzy AHP and the fuzzy COPRAS as a precise tool and provide effective multi-attribute decision-making for evaluating the machine tool in the uncertain environment.     

Ranking municipal solid waste treatment alternatives based on ecological footprint and multi-criteria analysis

The selection of a municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment alternative is a complex task in which a widespread set of criteria must be taken into account. Additionally to economic or social aspects, the decision process should consider the environmental perspective. With the purpose of quantifying the environmental burdens, a wide variety of environmental and sustainability indicators have been developed in the last years. Furthermore, integrative frameworks have been highlighted as the best option to achieve more comprehensive assessments.In this work, four different options of MSW treatment were ranked from an environmental point of view applying two methods: (1) the ecological footprint (EF) as single composite indicator and (2) multi-criteria analysis (MCA) integrating the EF together with other material flow indicators related to water consumption, emissions to air and water and occupied landfill volume. The MCA methods selected were a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) aided by Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (GAIA). The objective was twofold: on the one side, the identification of the most beneficial waste treatment alternative (including thermal plasma gasification which as yet has not been assessed systematically) from an environmental perspective and, on the other side, the comparison of the results yielded by the two ranking methods proposed.The ranking obtained in both cases was (from best to worst): thermal plasma gasification, biological treatment of organic fraction with energy recovery from refuse derived fuel, incineration with energy recovery and landfilling. Hence, the EF proved to be a good screening indicator although it did not provide a comprehensive measure of environmental impacts associated to the waste treatment options considered. Besides, the combined application of AHP and PROMETHEE/GAIA as MCA methodology was found to be a suitable way, not very complex at user level, to integrate the information provided by a set of environmental criteria and to aid decision making.     

Integrated environmental risk assessment approach for transportation modes

Abstract

The main aim of this study is to develop and implement new integrated environmental risk assessment for transportation activities. With this purpose, environmental risks occur from transportation activities from different transportation modes which are air, road, sea and rail are determined. Transportation modes are compared with the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach in order to obtain importance weights and impact categories of air, soil and water are used as criteria where the weights are determined with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). For the risk assessment process, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) has been used and prioritizations of risks are calculated with weights of the calculated transportation modes. In the study, integrated multi-criteria decision-making methods with the classic FMEA method with different categories of impacts reveal new multidimensional perspective to classic environmental risk assessment methods.     

Questioning the ecosystem services argument for biodiversity conservation

One of the central justifications for the conservation of biodiversity is the notion that species diversity is essential for the maintenance of ecosystem services. However, an important observation overlooked by proponents of this argument is that most ecosystem services are provided not by whole ecosystems, but by any group of species that fulfils certain basic functional criteria. Distinguishing between services that are resilient in response to species decline, and those that are not, is a far less challenging task than identifying the precise influence on ecosystem functioning of rare species. Conservationists have been almost unanimous in their failure to acknowledge this distinction between resilient and sensitive ecosystem services. Not only does this threaten the credibility of conservation science, but also increases the likelihood that natural area management becomes hijacked by the demand that ecosystem service provision be made the dominant management criteria.     

基于PSR方法的区域生态安全评价

生态安全是指一个社会的资源、环境系统能够满足经济、社会需要的同时,又不削弱其自然储量的状态。目前,广泛使用的"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型及层次分析法(AHP)存在一定的局限性,尚需要改进。以PSR模型为基础,选择北方针叶林、疏林、农田、荒漠灌丛、沙漠5类生态系统作为区域生态安全评价的参考系,提出了"主观能动响应力度"、"实效响应力度"的概念,综合应用了生态足迹、能值理论给出了计算生态状态指数、响应指数、压力指数的新方法,提出了计算区域生态安全指数的数学模型,增强了评价的客观性、可比性、通用性。以山东省长岛县为例,研究了生态状态、响应、压力之间的作用关系,绘制了生态安全指数的变化曲线,从时间尺度上(1990-2005年)评价生态安全的现状和发展趋势,推导出生态安全状况不断得到改善的必要条件。结果表明:虽然长岛县植被覆盖面积逐年增加,但是生态安全状况却没有得到明显改善,呈下降趋势。因此,植被存量,尤其森林植被的存量在增强生态安全等级上发挥着重要作用。从增加植被存量、加大生态恢复力度和减少生态压力方面提出了改善区域生态安全的建议与对策,为长岛县生态安全管理提供科学依据和指导。     

城市湖泊退化过程中水生态系统服务功能价值演变评估——以肇庆仙女湖为例

运用市场价值法、碳税法、造林成本法和工业制氧影子价格法、影子工程法以及价格替代等方法,以肇庆仙女湖为例,对城市湖泊水生态系统自然资产价值部分的演变进行了评估。结果得出,仙女湖水生态系统退化过程中,导致水生态系统有些服务功能的大幅度降低,如大气调节功能价值由1999年的460124元降低到2004年的8元、水质净化功能价值由1999年的11480元降到2004年的904元等;但并非各项生态系统服务功能价值都降低,有些项目的生态系统服务功能可保持不变,如水资源调节功能价值;甚至升高,如物质生产价值由1999年的152400元增加到2004年的241200元。该研究给退化生态系统的修复带来很大启示,即在退化生态系统的修复过程中要针对性的就退化生态系统的结构和功能进行修复,提高生态系统的总体服务功能价值,而并非退化生态系统的各项服务均需提高,有些项目的生态系统服务价值可以保持不变,甚至降低。     

济南市森林生态系统服务功能的维持机制

森林作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,在维持生物多样性、固碳、水源涵养和木材供应等方面起着不可替代的作用。依据《森林生态系统服务功能评估规范》(LY/T1721—2008),以济南市12个林分类型为研究对象,对济南市森林生态系统服务功能维持机制进行研究,得出济南市年森林生态系统涵养水源、保育土壤、固碳释氧、林木积累营养物质、净化大气环境、生物多样性保护的价值为251.80亿元。其中,涵养水源、固碳释氧、生物多样性保护排在前3位;不同林分类型生态系统服务功能价值量中黑杨类和柏类占绝对优势,而泡桐、落叶松和竹林生态系统服务功能较弱;不同林龄生态系统服务功能价值量以中幼龄林为主;济南市森林生态系统服务功能的维持机制,受到森林资源面积、林龄结构、森林起源以及自然保护区建设等诸多因素的影响。     

三江平原湿地生态脆弱性研究

建立了湿地生态脆弱性评价指标体系和方法,并利用该方法对三江平原湿地进行了评价,依据湿地生态特征和发展演化规律选择评价指标,利用层次分析法（AHP）进行指标权重,用综合指数法评价湿地生态脆弱性程度,实践表明该方法科学,实用,对湿地资源的合理利用与保护具有指导意义,具有推广价值。