The impact of climate change on the future geographical distribution range of the endemic relict tree Gleditsia caspica (Fabaceae) in Hyrcanian forests

The Caspian locust (Gleditsia caspica) is an endemic relict tree that occurs in Hyrcanian forests. Many of its habitats have been destroyed in the last half-century. This study was performed to map past geographic distributions and estimate the suitable areas and potential risks of remaining populations under future climate change. Eight bioclimatic scenarios (one with current conditions, three with future climates, and four with past conditions) were tested using the maximum entropy algorithm. The most significant factors influencing the distributions of G. caspica were precipitation in the driest month and temperature seasonality. Even under the most optimistic model (RCP2.6), many stands of G. caspica may become endangered in the eastern and central parts of the range, and the distribution of this species will probably shift to the west of the Hyrcanian forest area. Considering the increasing destruction of habitats of this species due to human activities and the expected negative effects of climate change in the future, it is recommended that nature reserves be established to protect the habitat of G. caspica. Additionally, ex situ conservation strategies, such as storing seeds using cryopreservation techniques, can ensure the long-term survival of this species in the future.     

Invasive fountain grass (Pennisetum setaceum (Forssk.) Chiov.) increases its potential area of distribution in Tenerife island under future climatic scenarios

Mapping the distribution of invasive species under current and future climate conditions is crucial to implement sustainable and effective conservation strategies. Several studies showed how invasive species may benefit from climate change fostering their invasion rate and, consequently, affecting the native species community. In the Canary Islands and on Tenerife in particular, previous research mostly focused on climate change impacts on the native communities, whereas less attention has been paid on alien species distribution under climate change scenarios. In this study, we modelled the habitat distribution of Pennisetum setaceum, one of the most invasive alien species on Tenerife. In addition, we described the species’ potential distribution shift in the light of two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5), highlighting the areas that should be prioritized during management and eradication programs. P. setaceum’s suitable areas are located in the coastal area, with higher habitat suitability near cities and below 800 m asl. In both future climate change scenarios, the geographic distribution of P. setaceum suitable areas is characterized by an elevational shift, which is more pronounced in the RCP8.5 scenario. Despite being drought resistant, water supply is crucial for the species’ seed germination, thus supporting future species’ shift to higher elevation and in the north–north–west part of the island, where it could benefit from the combined effect of orographic precipitations and humidity carried by trade winds.

     

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales.     

Predicting the impact of future climate changes and range-shifts of Indian hornbills (family: Bucerotidae)

Climate change influences species distribution and is regarded as a major threat to biodiversity. Hornbills (Family: Bucerotidae) are large tropical birds in Asia and Africa. They are seed dispersers known as forest farmers because they help maintain the ecological community structure by allowing forest regeneration. They are keystone species, and their presence in a forest implies a healthy ecosystem. Range shifts due to climate change is a serious threat because their long-term survival is already imperilled by anthropogenic disturbances. This study models the current and future potential climatic niches of eight of the nine hornbill species present in India. We used GBIF-mediated species presence records along with eight WorldClim V2.1 bioclimatic variables to model the current climatically suitable areas and projected it into the future (mid-century, i.e., 2041–60 and end of the century, i.e., 2081–2100) for different CMIP6 based Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, 370 and 585). Range shifts, centroid changes, and the impact of current land use practices for each of the eight species under various climatic conditions were also examined. The Area Under Curve (AUC) values for final models ranged between 0.736 and 0.994. Result indicates that majority of species' climatic niche shift is towards the west, followed by northwest and northern shifts. The species are expected to lose >40% of their suitable present climatic niche under the SSP 585 scenario in 2081–2100. Natural areas were found to be climatically suitable for hornbills throughout the study area, implying the merit of conserving their existing habitats. Our research provides detailed information on how the distribution of Indian Hornbills may change because of future climatic conditions. Detailed spatial and temporal distribution and range shift patterns will aid in a targeted approach for conserving hornbills and their habitat in a changing climate.     

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum under climate change

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

气候变化下桃儿七潜在地理分布的预测

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

Predicted changes in the potential distribution of seerfish (Scomberomorus sierra) under multiple climate change scenarios in the Colombian Pacific Ocean

Some projections predict that fishery resources in tropical areas will be negatively affected by climate change, resulting in the displacement of species and reducing their availability for fishing. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Scomberomorus sierra under current conditions in the Colombian Pacific Ocean was simulated using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling software, based on species presence data and satellite-derived environmental variables (Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Chlorophyll-a and bathymetry). The future distributions of S. sierra in 2020s (short term) and 2080s (long term) were projected under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios for four ensembled global circulation models (GCM) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The current and future geographical distributions were modeled for the species' fishing months (November to April), and pixel-wise change distribution and core shift were determined. The results indicated good performance for the distribution models in the present and future scenarios (AUC > 0.9). The RCP 8.5 scenario, in both, the short and long term, indicated the highest adverse changes in the species distribution. The distribution core shift indicates that under RCP 2.6 in the 2020s for November and December, the shift is towards the central zone of the Colombian Pacific. In the 2080s (long term), the distribution centroid tends to move towards the central zone, further from the coastline. Results also showed the same change tendency for RCP 8.5 in both the 2020s and 2080s. This is one of the first studies that elucidate the effects of climate change on a commercial species in the Colombian Pacific. The results give an insight into future management strategies for seerfish fisheries, which can also be used as a reference for studying other species.     

Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.     

Potential distributional shifts in North America of allelopathic invasive plant species under climate change models

Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios. Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics. Here, we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants—Ailanthus altissima, Casuarina equisetifolia, Centaurea stoebe ssp. micranthos, Dioscorea bulbifera, Lantana camara, and Schinus terebinthifolia—that are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change. We used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models. ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs, estimate current distributions, and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species. Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America. Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States, while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades, given projected changes in temperature and precipitation. Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.     

Beyond species distribution modeling: A landscape genetics approach to investigating range shifts under future climate change

Understanding how biodiversity will respond to future climate change is a major conservation and societal challenge. Climate change is predicted to force many species to shift their ranges in pursuit of suitable conditions. This study aims to use landscape genetics, the study of the effects of environmental heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of genetic variation, as a predictive tool to assess how species will shift their ranges to track climatic changes and inform conservation measures that will facilitate movement. The approach is based on three steps: 1) using species distribution models (SDMs) to predict suitable ranges under future climate change, 2) using the landscape genetics framework to identify landscape variables that impede or facilitate movement, and 3) extrapolating the effect of landscape connectivity on range shifts in response to future climate change. I show how this approach can be implemented using the publicly available genetic dataset of the grey long-eared bat, Plecotus austriacus, in the Iberian Peninsula. Forest cover gradient was the main landscape variable affecting genetic connectivity between colonies. Forest availability is likely to limit future range shifts in response to climate change, primarily over the central plateau, but important range shift pathways have been identified along the eastern and western coasts. I provide outputs that can be directly used by conservation managers and review the viability of the approach. Using landscape genetics as a predictive tool in combination with SDMs enables the identification of potential pathways, whose loss can affect the ability of species to shift their range into future climatically suitable areas, and the appropriate conservation management measures to increase landscape connectivity and facilitate movement.     

On the Iberian endemism <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eurylophella iberica</Emphasis> Keffermuller and Da Terra 1978 (Ephemeroptera,Ephemerellidae): current and future potential distributions,and assessment of the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network on its protection

Eurylophella iberica Keffermüller and Da Terra, 1978 is an endemic insect species of the Iberian Peninsula whose distribution has been poorly studied to date with rather old and scattered records. Here we compiled all existing distribution records and add new records from recent sampling activities. We also used this updated distributional information and environmental data (climate and geology) to estimate both current and future potential distributions in different climate change scenarios. We found that currently ca. 50% of the total Iberian region could present suitable environmental conditions for E. iberica (all the Iberian Peninsula, save the most eastern and Mediterranean areas). However, the potential distributions estimated when considering future climate change scenarios showed a marked reduction in the areas with suitable environmental conditions for the species, especially in the south. The northwest part of the Iberian Peninsula is a crucial zone for the future survival of this endemic species. We also found that most populations that occur in areas with suitable (both current and future) environmental conditions fall outside the Natura 2000 network of protected areas. Our results represent the first attempt to estimate the potential distribution of this endemic species providing important insights for its conservation.     

基于CLIMEX的2种核桃蚜虫潜在适生区分析

【目的】分析核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在全球范围内的潜在分布,比较气候变化对其分布的影响,为核桃有害生物综合管理策略的制定提供依据。【方法】基于实验室和野外试验,结合CLIMEX软件对核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在目前及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行了模拟和系统评估。【结果】2种核桃蚜虫适生区十分相似,在世界范围内主要分布区集中在欧洲、北美洲、亚洲等区域,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围大于核桃全斑蚜,但在我国,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围小于核桃全斑蚜。气候变化将决定2种蚜虫分布的差异性,未来气候情景下,2种蚜虫适生区将发生变化,在欧洲、北美洲和亚洲适生区范围向高纬度延伸;在我国适生区范围逐渐减小。【结论】在世界范围内,核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜适生区域主要分布在25°N-75°N内的亚洲、欧洲、北美洲的部分地区;在我国,其适生区域主要分布在东部季风区内的东北的南部、西北东南部、西南中部、华中北部以及华北地区。     

Modelling species responses to extreme weather provides new insights into constraints on range and likely climate change impacts for Australian mammals

Conservation of species under climate change relies on accurate predictions of species ranges under current and future climate conditions. To date, modelling studies have focused primarily on how changes in long‐term averaged climate conditions are likely to influence species distributions with much less attention paid to the potential effect of extreme events such as droughts and heatwaves which are expected to increase in frequency over coming decades. In this study we explore the benefits of tailoring predictor variables to the specific physiological constraints of species, or groups of species. We show how utilizing spatial predictors of extreme temperature and water availability (heat‐waves and droughts), derived from high‐temporal resolution, long‐term weather records, provides categorically different predictions about the future (2070) distribution of suitable environments for 188 mammal species across different biomes (from arid zones to tropical environments) covering the whole of continental Australia. Models based on long‐term averages‐only and extreme conditions‐only showed similarly high predictive performance tested by hold‐out cross‐validation on current data, and yet some predicted dramatically different future geographic ranges for the same species under 2070 climate scenarios. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for extreme conditions/events by identifying areas in the landscape where species may cope with average conditions, but cannot persist under extreme conditions known or predicted to occur there. Our approach provides an important step toward identifying the location of climate change refuges and danger zones that goes beyond the current standard of extrapolating long‐term climate averages.     

Identifying conservation priority areas and predicting the climate change impact on the future habitats of endangered Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. utilizing ecological niche modelling

Developing strategies for effective species conservation is necessary to counter the ever-fluctuating environmental conditions with increasing anthropogenic activities. Studies have proven Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) as an effective tool for sustainable conservation. Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. is an endangered pitcher plant facing a constant decline in population due to anthropogenic activities. This study aimed to locate the most suitable areas for re-establishing the species in natural habitats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, and to forecast the effects of current and future climate conditions on its distribution throughout Northeast India. The potential suitable areas in future climate under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and in the current climate were predicted utilizing the 30 occurrence data, bioclimatic predictors, and variables from BCC-CSM1.1 model and WorldClim respectively. The results of the current study showed significant relationships among annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, seasonality of precipitation, annual range iso-thermality of temperature, mean diurnal range [Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)], and the distribution of the analysed species. The optimum model performance was represented by the AUC value of 0.972 ± 0.007. The model predicted 10.70% of the NE Indian region as climatically suitable, which will expand under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, reaching 15.35%, and 12.64%, respectively. However, this may degrade significantly under RCP8.5, reducing to 8.14%. Based on the analysis of modelling results it was found that the Nokrek belt and the Khasi hills as highly suitable regions for the reintroduction of the species. The study revalidated ENM as an effective means to identify new populations and predict the influence of climate change on the future habitat which can benefit the concurrent species management strategies.     

Unusual suspects in the usual places: a phylo-climatic framework to identify potential future invasive species

A framework for identifying species that may become invasive under future climate conditions is presented, based on invader attributes and biogeography in combination with projections of future climate. We illustrate the framework using the CLIMEX niche model to identify future climate suitability for three species of Hawkweed that are currently present in the Australian Alps region and related species that are present in the neighbouring region. Potential source regions under future climate conditions are identified, and species from those emerging risk areas are identified. We use dynamically downscaled climate projections to complement global analyses and provide fine-scale projections of suitable climate for current and future (2070–2099) conditions at the regional scale. Changing climatic conditions may reduce the suitability for some invasive species and improve it for others. Invasive species with distributions strongly determined by climate, where the projected future climate is highly suitable, are those with the greatest potential to be future invasive species in the region. As the Alps region becomes warmer and drier, many more regions of the world become potential sources of invasive species, although only one additional species of Hawkweed is identified as an emerging risk. However, in the longer term, as the species in these areas respond to global climate change, the potential source areas contract again to match higher altitude regions. Knowledge of future climate suitability, based on species-specific climatic tolerances, is a useful step towards prioritising management responses such as targeted eradication and early intervention to prevent the spread of future invasive species.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus)

The western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus) is a small pit viper with an extensive geographic range, yet observations of this species are relatively rare. They persist in patchy and isolated populations, threatened by habitat destruction and fragmentation, mortality from vehicle collisions, and deliberate extermination. Changing climates may pose an additional stressor on the survival of isolated populations. Here, we evaluate historic, modern, and future geographic projections of suitable climate for S. tergeminus to outline shifts in their potential geographic distribution and inform current and future management. We used maximum entropy modeling to build multiple models of the potential geographic distribution of S. tergeminus. We evaluated the influence of five key decisions made during the modeling process on the resulting geographic projections of the potential distribution, allowing us to identify areas of model robustness and uncertainty. We evaluated models with the area under the receiver operating curve and true skill statistic. We retained 16 models to project both in the past and future multiple general circulation models. At the last glacial maximum, the potential geographic distribution associated with S. tergeminus occurrences had a stronghold in the southern part of its current range and extended further south into Mexico, but by the mid‐Holocene, its modeled potential distribution was similar to its present‐day potential distribution. Under future model projections, the potential distribution of S. tergeminus moves north, with the strongest northward trends predicted under a climate scenario increase of 8.5 W/m². Some southern populations of S. tergeminus have likely already been extirpated and will continue to be threatened by shifting availability of suitable climate, as they are already under threat from desertification of grasslands. Land use and habitat loss at the northern edge of the species range are likely to make it challenging for this species to track suitable climates northward over time.     

Spatial conservation planning under climate change: Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan

Protected areas are the basis of modern conservation systems, but current climate change causes gaps between protected areas and the species distribution ranges. To mitigate the impact of climate change on species distribution ranges, revision of protected areas are necessary. Alternatively, active management such as excluding competitive species or transplanting target species would be effective. In this study, we assessed optimal actions (revision of protected areas or active management) in each geographical region to establish an effective spatial conservation plan in Japan. Gaps between the protected areas and future potential habitats were assessed using species distribution models and 20 future climate simulations. Fagus crenata, an endemic and dominant species in Japan, was used as a target species. Potential habitats within the protected areas were predicted to decrease from 22,122 km² at present to 12,309 km² under future climate conditions. Sustainable potential habitats (consistent potential habitats both at present and in future) without the protected areas extended to 13,208 km², and were mainly found in northeast Japan. These results suggest that, in northeast Japan, revisions to protected areas would be effective in preserving sustainable potential habitats under future climate change. However, the potential habitats of southwestern Japan, in which populations were genetically different from northeastern populations, were predicted to virtually disappear both within and outside of protected areas. Active management is thus necessary in southwestern Japan to ensure intraspecific genetic diversity under future climate change.     

Forecasting climate-driven habitat changes for Australian freshwater fishes

Aims

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on species' distributions into the future. Freshwater fishes, an important component of freshwater ecosystems, are no exception. Here, we project shifts in suitable conditions for Australian freshwater fishes under different climate change scenarios to identify species that may experience significant declines in habitat suitability.

Location

Australia.

Methods

We use MAXENT bioclimatic models to estimate the effect of climate change on the suitable conditions for 154 species of Australian freshwater fishes, of which 109 are endemic and 29 are threatened with extinction. Suitable conditions for freshwater fish species are modelled using three different Earth System climate models (ESMs) under two different emission scenarios to the year 2100. For each species, we examine potential geographic shifts in the distribution of suitable conditions from the present day to 2100 and quantify how habitat suitability may change at currently occupied sites by the end of this century.

Results

Broadscale poleward shifts in suitable conditions are projected for Australian freshwater fishes by an average of up to 0.38° (~180 km) across all species, depending on the emission scenario. Considerable loss of suitable conditions is forecast to occur within currently recognized distributional extents by 2100, with a mean projected loss of up to 17.5% across species. Predicted geographic range shifts and declines are larger under a high-emission scenario. Threatened species are projected to be more adversely affected than nonthreatened species.

Main Conclusions

Our models identify species and geographic regions that may be vulnerable to climate change, enabling freshwater fish conservation into the future.     

气候变化对黄腹角雉潜在栖息地的影响

气候变化直接影响物种赖以生存的栖息地环境条件,进而影响物种的分布、数量和存活率。基于优化后最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测气候变化下黄腹角雉(Tragopan caboti)过去、当前、未来时期的潜在栖息地格局。结果表明,降水量、温度、海拔是栖息地的主要影响因子。当前时期适宜栖息地面积较过去时期下降24.69%;未来2041—2060年间,共享社会经济路径(SSP)3-7.0与SSP5-8.5情景下黄腹角雉适宜栖息地面积较当前时期分别下降55.19%、58.10%。浙江、江西和福建是当前以及未来黄腹角雉核心适宜栖息地,适宜栖息地面积呈现下降的趋势,并往高纬度区域移动。