Are the costs of employer-sponsored health insurance passed on to workers at the individual level?

Because employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) is experience rated, employers have an incentive to try to offset its cost by paying lower wages to employees who have greater medical expenditures. The existing evidence on this topic, however, illustrates only that ESI is associated with lower wages for groups of workers who are costlier to cover. In contrast, I use the variation provided by the Affordable Care Act's employer mandate to examine if differences in medical expenditures are passed on to workers at the individual level. My estimates rely on Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data in a dose response difference-in-difference framework that examines how wages change for workers with varying medical expenditures when they must soon be offered ESI. I find that each $1 difference in medical expenditures is associated with a $0.35 to $0.51 wage offset after the employer mandate's announcement wherever ESI must soon be offered to workers. Placebo analyses, focusing on workers whose employers are not affected by the mandate, provide support for a causal interpretation. I also show that my findings are not sensitive to sample selection or data reliability issues and that they cannot be explained by the effects of the Great Recession, demographic characteristics that correlate with medical expenditures, or location- or industry-specific idiosyncratic shocks.     

Clinical Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in Men Who Have Sex with Men: Risk Calculators for Real-World Decision-Making

Background

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be clinically effective and cost-effective for HIV prevention in high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM). However, individual patients have different risk profiles, real-world populations vary, and no practical tools exist to guide clinical decisions or public health strategies. We introduce a practical model of HIV acquisition, including both a personalized risk calculator for clinical management and a cost-effectiveness calculator for population-level decisions.

Methods

We developed a decision-analytic model of PrEP for MSM. The primary clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness outcomes were the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one HIV infection, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. We characterized patients according to risk factors including PrEP adherence, condom use, sexual frequency, background HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy use.

Results

With standard PrEP adherence and national epidemiologic parameters, the estimated NNT was 64 (95% uncertainty range: 26, 176) at a cost of $160,000 (cost saving, $740,000) per QALY – comparable to other published models. With high (35%) HIV prevalence, the NNT was 35 (21, 57), and cost per QALY was $27,000 (cost saving, $160,000), and with high PrEP adherence, the NNT was 30 (14, 69), and cost per QALY was $3,000 (cost saving, $200,000). In contrast, for monogamous, serodiscordant relationships with partner antiretroviral therapy use, the NNT was 90 (39, 157) and cost per QALY was $280,000 ($14,000, $670,000).

Conclusions

PrEP results vary widely across individuals and populations. Risk calculators may aid in patient education, clinical decision-making, and cost-effectiveness evaluation.     

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Reduce HIV-1 and HSV-2 Incidence in HIV-Serodiscordant Couples in South Africa

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of daily oral tenofovir-based PrEP, with a protective effect against HSV-2 as well as HIV-1, among HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa.

Methods

We incorporated HSV-2 acquisition, transmission, and interaction with HIV-1 into a microsimulation model of heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa, with use of PrEP for the HIV-1 uninfected partner prior to ART initiation for the HIV-1 1infected partner, and for one year thereafter.

Results

We estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for two scenarios, one in which PrEP has no effect on reducing HSV-2 acquisition, and one in which there is a 33% reduction. After a twenty-year intervention, the cost per DALY averted is estimated to be $10,383 and $9,757, respectively – a 6% reduction, given the additional benefit of reduced HSV-2 acquisition. If all couples are discordant for both HIV-1 and HSV-2, the cost per DALY averted falls to $1,445, which shows that the impact is limited by HSV-2 concordance in couples.

Conclusion

After a 20-year PrEP intervention, the cost per DALY averted with a reduction in HSV-2 is estimated to be modestly lower than without any effect, providing an increase of health benefits in addition to HIV-1 prevention at no extra cost. The small degree of the effect is in part due to a high prevalence of HSV-2 infection in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa.     

Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Oral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in a Portfolio of Prevention Programs for Injection Drug Users in Mixed HIV Epidemics

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis with oral antiretroviral treatment (oral PrEP) for HIV-uninfected injection drug users (IDUs) is potentially useful in controlling HIV epidemics with a significant injection drug use component. We estimated the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of strategies for using oral PrEP in various combinations with methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Ukraine, a representative case for mixed HIV epidemics.

Methods and Findings

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs who inject opiates, and IDUs in MMT, adding an oral PrEP program (tenofovir/emtricitabine, 49% susceptibility reduction) for uninfected IDUs. We analyzed intervention portfolios consisting of oral PrEP (25% or 50% of uninfected IDUs), MMT (25% of IDUs), and ART (80% of all eligible patients). We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, HIV infections averted, and incremental cost effectiveness. A combination of PrEP for 50% of IDUs and MMT lowered HIV prevalence the most in both IDUs and the general population. ART combined with MMT and PrEP (50% access) averted the most infections (14,267). For a PrEP cost of $950, the most cost-effective strategy was MMT, at $520/QALY gained versus no intervention. The next most cost-effective strategy consisted of MMT and ART, costing $1,000/QALY gained compared to MMT alone. Further adding PrEP (25% access) was also cost effective by World Health Organization standards, at $1,700/QALY gained. PrEP alone became as cost effective as MMT at a cost of $650, and cost saving at $370 or less.

Conclusions

Oral PrEP for IDUs can be part of an effective and cost-effective strategy to control HIV in regions where injection drug use is a significant driver of the epidemic. Where budgets are limited, focusing on MMT and ART access should be the priority, unless PrEP has low cost.     

Optimal uses of antiretrovirals for prevention in HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples in South Africa: a modelling study

Background

Antiretrovirals have substantial promise for HIV-1 prevention, either as antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV-1–infected persons to reduce infectiousness, or as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-1–uninfected persons to reduce the possibility of infection with HIV-1. HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in long-term partnerships (one member is infected and the other is uninfected) are a priority for prevention interventions. Earlier ART and PrEP might both reduce HIV-1 transmission in this group, but the merits and synergies of these different approaches have not been analyzed.

Methods and Findings

We constructed a mathematical model to examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of different strategies, including earlier initiation of ART and/or PrEP, for HIV-1 prevention for serodiscordant couples. Although the cost of PrEP is high, the cost per infection averted is significantly offset by future savings in lifelong treatment, especially among couples with multiple partners, low condom use, and a high risk of transmission. In some situations, highly effective PrEP could be cost-saving overall. To keep couples alive and without a new infection, providing PrEP to the uninfected partner could be at least as cost-effective as initiating ART earlier in the infected partner, if the annual cost of PrEP is <40% of the annual cost of ART and PrEP is >70% effective.

Conclusions

Strategic use of PrEP and ART could substantially and cost-effectively reduce HIV-1 transmission in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. New and forthcoming data on the efficacy of PrEP, the cost of delivery of ART and PrEP, and couples behaviours and preferences will be critical for optimizing the use of antiretrovirals for HIV-1 prevention. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Cost of Science

Over the past decade AIDS research has turned toward the use of pharmacology in HIV prevention, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP): the use of HIV medication as a means of preventing HIV acquisition in those who do not have it. This paper explores the contradictory reasons offered in support of PrEP??to empower women, to provide another risk-reduction option for gay men??as the context for understanding the social meaning of the experimental trials that appear to show that PrEP works in gay men and heterosexual couples but not single women. The PrEP debates reveal the different ideas about ??demedicalization?? in the earlier gay health and women??s health movements and highlight the relationship between health activism and critique of research ethics in the context of a global pharmaceutical market.     

The Cost and Impact of Scaling Up Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention: A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Studies

Background

Cost-effectiveness studies inform resource allocation, strategy, and policy development. However, due to their complexity, dependence on assumptions made, and inherent uncertainty, synthesising, and generalising the results can be difficult. We assess cost-effectiveness models evaluating expected health gains and costs of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) interventions.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a systematic review comparing epidemiological and economic assumptions of cost-effectiveness studies using various modelling approaches. The following databases were searched (until January 2013): PubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, EconLIT, and region-specific databases. We included modelling studies reporting both cost and expected impact of a PrEP roll-out. We explored five issues: prioritisation strategies, adherence, behaviour change, toxicity, and resistance. Of 961 studies retrieved, 13 were included. Studies modelled populations (heterosexual couples, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs) in generalised and concentrated epidemics from Southern Africa (including South Africa), Ukraine, USA, and Peru. PrEP was found to have the potential to be a cost-effective addition to HIV prevention programmes in specific settings. The extent of the impact of PrEP depended upon assumptions made concerning cost, epidemic context, programme coverage, prioritisation strategies, and individual-level adherence. Delivery of PrEP to key populations at highest risk of HIV exposure appears the most cost-effective strategy. Limitations of this review include the partial geographical coverage, our inability to perform a meta-analysis, and the paucity of information available exploring trade-offs between early treatment and PrEP.

Conclusions

Our review identifies the main considerations to address in assessing cost-effectiveness analyses of a PrEP intervention—cost, epidemic context, individual adherence level, PrEP programme coverage, and prioritisation strategy. Cost-effectiveness studies indicating where resources can be applied for greatest impact are essential to guide resource allocation decisions; however, the results of such analyses must be considered within the context of the underlying assumptions made. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Ambiguity,Ambivalence, and Apprehensions of Taking HIV-1 Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Male Couples in San Francisco: A Mixed Methods Study

Objective

We conducted a mixed-methods study to examine serodiscordant and seroconcordant (HIV-positive/HIV-positive) male couples'' PrEP awareness, concerns regarding health care providers offering PrEP to the community, and correlates of PrEP uptake by the HIV-negative member of the couple.

Design

Qualitative sub-study included one-on-one interviews to gain a deeper understanding of participants'' awareness of and experiences with PrEP and concerns regarding health care providers offering PrEP to men who have sex with men (MSM). Quantitative analyses consisted of a cross-sectional study in which participants were asked about the likelihood of PrEP uptake by the HIV-negative member of the couple and level of agreement with health care providers offering PrEP to anyone requesting it.

Methods

We used multivariable regression to examine associations between PrEP questions and covariates of interest and employed an inductive approach to identify key qualitative themes.

Results

Among 328 men (164 couples), 62% had heard about PrEP, but approximately one-quarter were mistaking it with post-exposure prophylaxis. The majority of participants had low endorsement of PrEP uptake and 40% were uncertain if health care providers should offer PrEP to anyone requesting it. Qualitative interviews with 32 men suggest that this uncertainty likely stems from concerns regarding increased risk compensation. Likelihood of future PrEP uptake by the HIV-negative member of the couple was positively associated with unprotected insertive anal intercourse but negatively correlated with unprotected receptive anal intercourse.

Conclusions

Findings suggest that those at greatest risk may not be receptive of PrEP. Those who engage in moderate risk express more interest in PrEP; however, many voice concerns of increased risk behavior in tandem with PrEP use. Results indicate a need for further education of MSM communities and the need to determine appropriate populations in which PrEP can have the highest impact.     

A qualitative study of provider thoughts on implementing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in clinical settings to prevent HIV infection

Background

A recent clinical trial demonstrated that a daily dose tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabrine (TDF-FTC) can reduce HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender (TG) women by 44%, and up to 90% if taken daily. We explored how medical and service providers understand research results and plan to develop clinical protocols to prescribe, support and monitor adherence for patients on PrEP in the United States.

Methods

Using referrals from our community collaborators and snowball sampling, we recruited 22 healthcare providers in San Francisco, Oakland, and Los Angeles for in-depth interviews from May-December 2011. The providers included primary care physicians seeing high numbers of MSM and TG women, HIV specialists, community health clinic providers, and public health officials. We analyzed interviews thematically to produce recommendations for setting policy around implementing PrEP. Interview topics included: assessing clinician impressions of PrEP and CDC guidance, considerations of cost, office capacity, dosing schedules, and following patients over time.

Results

Little or no demand for PrEP from patients was reported at the time of the interviews. Providers did not agree on the most appropriate patients for PrEP and believed that current models of care, which do not involve routine frequent office visits, were not well suited for prescribing PrEP. Providers detailed the need to build capacity and were concerned about monitoring side effects and adherence. PrEP was seen as potentially having impact on the epidemic but providers also noted that community education campaigns needed to be tailored to effectively reach specific vulnerable populations.

Conclusions

While PrEP may be a novel and clinically compelling prevention intervention for MSM and TG women, it raises a number of important implementation challenges that would need to be addressed. Nonetheless, most providers expressed optimism that they eventually could prescribe and monitor PrEP in their practice.     

The Potential Impact of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention among Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transwomen in Lima, Peru: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Background

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the use of antiretroviral drugs by uninfected individuals to prevent HIV infection, has demonstrated effectiveness in preventing acquisition in a high-risk population of men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, there is a need to understand if and how PrEP can be used cost-effectively to prevent HIV infection in such populations.

Methods and Findings

We developed a mathematical model representing the HIV epidemic among MSM and transwomen (male-to-female transgender individuals) in Lima, Peru, as a test case. PrEP effectiveness in the model is assumed to result from the combination of a “conditional efficacy” parameter and an adherence parameter. Annual operating costs from a health provider perspective were based on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention interim guidelines for PrEP use. The model was used to investigate the population-level impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP under a range of implementation scenarios. The epidemiological impact of PrEP is largely driven by programme characteristics. For a modest PrEP coverage of 5%, over 8% of infections could be averted in a programme prioritising those at higher risk and attaining the adherence levels of the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative study. Across all scenarios, the highest estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year averted (uniform strategy for a coverage level of 20%, US$1,036–US$4,254) is below the World Health Organization recommended threshold for cost-effective interventions, while only certain optimistic scenarios (low coverage of 5% and some or high prioritisation) are likely to be cost-effective using the World Bank threshold. The impact of PrEP is reduced if those on PrEP decrease condom use, but only extreme behaviour changes among non-adherers (over 80% reduction in condom use) and a low PrEP conditional efficacy (40%) would adversely impact the epidemic. However, PrEP will not arrest HIV transmission in isolation because of its incomplete effectiveness and dependence on adherence, and because the high cost of programmes limits the coverage levels that could potentially be attained.

Conclusions

A strategic PrEP intervention could be a cost-effective addition to existing HIV prevention strategies for MSM populations. However, despite being cost-effective, a substantial expenditure would be required to generate significant reductions in incidence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

State‐Level Estimates of Annual Medical Expenditures Attributable to Obesity*

Objective: To provide state‐level estimates of total, Medicare, and Medicaid obesity‐attributable medical expenditures. Research Methods and Procedures: We developed an econometric model that predicts medical expenditures. We used this model and state‐representative data to quantify obesity‐attributable medical expenditures. Results: Annual U.S. obesity‐attributable medical expenditures are estimated at $75 billion in 2003 dollars, and approximately one‐half of these expenditures are financed by Medicare and Medicaid. State‐level estimates range from $87 million (Wyoming) to $7.7 billion (California). Obesity‐attributable Medicare estimates range from $15 million (Wyoming) to $1.7 billion (California), and Medicaid estimates range from $23 million (Wyoming) to $3.5 billion (New York). Discussion: These estimates of obesity‐attributable medical expenditures present the best available information concerning the economic impact of obesity at the state level. Policy makers should consider these estimates, along with other factors, in determining how best to allocate scarce public health resources. However, because they are associated with large SE, these estimates should not be used to make comparisons across states or among payers within states.     

Letter from the Editor

With annual healthcare expenditures on the order of $2 trillion, the US leads the world in spending but has done relatively little research on the effective use of those funds. Other countries, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (UK) have instituted various types of health technology assessment or evaluation. Sweden was an early adopter with the establishment in 1987 of the Swedish Council on Technology Assessment in Health Care. UK’s National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), which includes the Centre for Health Technology Evaluation, followed in 1999. Economic modeling of cost effectiveness is integral to NICE’s assessment of new medical technologies. The US has not lagged other countries in principle – the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) had a medical treatments effectiveness program as early as 1989 - but funding levels for such programs have been low in the past, and comparative effectiveness research (CER) results have generally not had a notable impact on medical or reimbursement policies, in part because Congress has not allowed CER outcomes to impact coverage decisions.     

The Effect of Obesity and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors on Expenditures and Productivity in the United States

Objective: To examine the effect of obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors on medical expenditures and missed work days. Methods and Procedures: The 2000 and 2002 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), a nationally representative survey of the US population, was used to estimate the marginal effect of obesity (BMI ≥ 30) on annual per‐person medical expenditures and missed work days for patients with diabetes, dyslipidemia, or hypertension using multivariate regression methods controlling for age, sex, race, ethnicity, education, income, insurance, and smoking status. Maximum Likelihood Heckman Selection with Smearing retransformation was used to assess medical expenditures, and Negative Binomial regression was used for missed work days. Results: Normal weight individuals with diabetes, dyslipidemia, or hypertension had significantly greater medical expenditures than those without the respective condition ($6,006 (5,124–6,887), $4,760 (4,102–5,417), $3,911 (3,345–4,476)) and obesity significantly exacerbated this effect ($7,986 (7,397–8,574), $7,636 (7,072–8,200), $6,197 (5,745–6,649); $2007; all P < 0.05). In addition, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension resulted in greater missed work days (3.1 (0.94–6.21), 3.2 (0.42–7.91), 1.4 (0.0–3.52)) (all P < 0.05 except hypertension), which resulted in greater lost productivity ($433, $451, $199) and obesity significantly exacerbated the deleterious effect on work days (8.7 (4.44–15.2), 5.5 (2.18–10.5), 4.5 (2.92–6.34)) and lost productivity ($1,217, $763, $622) (all P < 0.05). In addition, medical expenditures increased for increasing weight category and increasing number of risk factors. Discussion: Obesity significantly exacerbates the deleterious effect of diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension on medical expenditures and productivity loss in the United States. Obesity is preventable and public health efforts need to be undertaken to prevent its alarming increase in order to reduce the incidence and effect of cardiometabolic risk factors.     

Complex and Conflicting Social Norms: Implications for Implementation of Future HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Interventions in Vancouver,Canada

Background

HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) has been found to be efficacious in preventing HIV acquisition among seronegative individuals in a variety of risk groups, including men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs. To date, however, it remains unclear how socio-cultural norms (e.g., attitudes towards HIV; social understandings regarding HIV risk practices) may influence the scalability of future PrEP interventions. The objective of this study is to assess how socio-cultural norms may influence the implementation and scalability of future HIV PrEP interventions in Vancouver, Canada.

Methods

We conducted 50 interviews with young men (ages 18–24) with a variety of HIV risk behavioural profiles (e.g., young men who inject drugs; MSM). Interviews focused on participants’ experiences and perceptions with various HIV interventions and policies, including PrEP.

Results

While awareness of PrEP was generally low, perceptions about the potential personal and public health gains associated with PrEP were interconnected with expressions of complex and sometimes conflicting social norms. Some accounts characterized PrEP as a convenient form of reliable protection against HIV, likening it to the female birth control pill. Other accounts cast PrEP as a means to facilitate ‘socially unacceptable’ behaviour (e.g., promiscuity). Stigmatizing rhetoric was used to position PrEP as a tool that could promote some groups’ proclivities to take ‘risks’.

Conclusion

Stigma regarding ‘risky’ behaviour and PrEP should not be underestimated as a serious implementation challenge. Pre-implementation strategies that concomitantly aim to improve knowledge about PrEP, while addressing associated social prejudices, may be key to effective implementation and scale-up.     

Systemic Administration of Antiretrovirals Prior to Exposure Prevents Rectal and Intravenous HIV-1 Transmission in Humanized BLT Mice

Successful antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for mucosal and intravenous HIV-1 transmission could reduce new infections among targeted high-risk populations including discordant couples, injection drug users, high-risk women and men who have sex with men. Targeted antiretroviral PrEP could be particularly effective at slowing the spread of HIV-1 if a single antiretroviral combination were found to be broadly protective across multiple routes of transmission. Therefore, we designed our in vivo preclinical study to systematically investigate whether rectal and intravenous HIV-1 transmission can be blocked by antiretrovirals administered systemically prior to HIV-1 exposure. We performed these studies using a highly relevant in vivo model of mucosal HIV-1 transmission, humanized Bone marrow/Liver/Thymus mice (BLT). BLT mice are susceptible to HIV-1 infection via three major physiological routes of viral transmission: vaginal, rectal and intravenous. Our results show that BLT mice given systemic antiretroviral PrEP are efficiently protected from HIV-1 infection regardless of the route of exposure. Specifically, systemic antiretroviral PrEP with emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate prevented both rectal (Chi square = 8.6, df = 1, p = 0.003) and intravenous (Chi square = 13, df = 1, p = 0.0003) HIV-1 transmission. Our results indicate that antiretroviral PrEP has the potential to be broadly effective at preventing new rectal or intravenous HIV transmissions in targeted high risk individuals. These in vivo preclinical findings provide strong experimental evidence supporting the potential clinical implementation of antiretroviral based pre-exposure prophylactic measures to prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS.     

Current and projected annual direct costs of screening asymptomatic men for prostate cancer using prostate-specific antigen

BACKGROUND: Concern over the cost of screening for asymptomatic prostate cancer by means of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has played an important role in PSA screening policy. However, little is known about the true costs of current PSA screening in Canada and how costs may change in the future. METHODS: The authors performed a cost identification study from the perspective of provincial ministries of health. They used data from published reports, hospital discharge data, claims data from several provinces, a laboratory survey, a national survey of knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about screening, a provincial cancer registry and expert opinion to estimate current first-year screening costs. Using demographic data from Statistics Canada and various scenarios regarding changes in screening patterns, the authors derived estimates of the future costs of PSA screening. RESULTS: In 1995 PSA screening cost an estimated $45 million (range $40 million to $84 million). Treatment accounted for over 61% of total costs, whereas screening, diagnosis and staging accounted for 35%. Screening all eligible men in Canada in 1995 would have cost $317 million (range $356 million to $691 million), more than the costs of all prostate cancer care in that year. Annual recurrent screening for all eligible men in 2005 would cost $219 million (range $208 million to $412 million). Projections from existing trends suggest that annual costs of PSA screening in 2000 are likely to increase from the estimated $45 million to approximately $66 million (range $59 million to $126 million). INTERPRETATION: PSA screening is costly, but even universal screening would consume a smaller share of national health expenditures than previous studies have suggested. Costs attributable to PSA screening may increase in the future owing to changes in utilization patterns and demographic shifts.