The Burden of Influenza and RSV among Inpatients and Outpatients in Rural Western Kenya, 2009–2012

Background

In Kenya, detailed data on the age-specific burden of influenza and RSV are essential to inform use of limited vaccination and treatment resources.

Methods

We analyzed surveillance data from August 2009 to July 2012 for hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) at two health facilities in western Kenya to estimate the burden of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Incidence rates were estimated by dividing the number of cases with laboratory-confirmed virus infections by the mid-year population. Rates were adjusted for healthcare-seeking behavior, and to account for patients who met the SARI/ILI case definitions but were not tested.

Results

The average annual incidence of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization per 1,000 persons was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8–3.9) among children <5 years and 0.3 (95% CI 0.2–0.4) among persons ≥5 years; for RSV-associated SARI hospitalization, it was 5.2 (95% CI 4.0–6.8) among children <5 years and 0.1 (95% CI 0.0–0.2) among persons ≥5 years. The incidence of influenza-associated medically-attended ILI per 1,000 was 24.0 (95% CI 16.6–34.7) among children <5 years and 3.8 (95% CI 2.6–5.7) among persons ≥5 years. The incidence of RSV-associated medically-attended ILI was 24.6 (95% CI 17.0–35.4) among children <5 years and 0.8 (95% CI 0.3–1.9) among persons ≥5 years.

Conclusions

Influenza and RSV both exact an important burden in children. This highlights the possible value of influenza vaccines, and future RSV vaccines, for Kenyan children.     

Seasonal Incidence of Medically Attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in a Community Cohort of Adults ≥50 Years Old

Background

Diagnostic testing for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is not routinely performed in adults. We estimated medically attended RSV seasonal incidence in a community cohort of adults ≥50 years old during four influenza seasons (2006–07 through 2009–10).

Methods

Patients seeking care for acute respiratory illness (ARI) were prospectively enrolled and tested for RSV by multiplex RT-PCR. Results from enrolled patients were used to estimate projected cases among non-enrolled patients with ARI. The seasonal incidence of medically attended RSV was the sum of actual and projected cases divided by the community cohort denominator. Since each enrollment period did not include the entire RSV season, incidence estimates were adjusted to account for the statewide proportion of RSV occurring outside the study enrollment period.

Results

There were 16,088 to 17,694 adults in the cohort each season and 164 RSV cases in all 4 seasons. The overall seasonal incidence of medically attended RSV was 154 episodes (95% CI, 132–180) per 10,000 persons; the incidence was highest in 2007–08 (179) and lowest in 2006–07 (110). Among persons 50–59, 60–69, and ≥70 years old, RSV incidence was 124 (95% CI, 99–156), 147 (95% CI, 110–196), and 199 (95% CI, 153–258), respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence of medically attended RSV increased with age and was similar during four seasons.     

Reduced Risk for Metabolic Syndrome and Insulin Resistance Associated with Ovo-Lacto-Vegetarian Behavior in Female Buddhists: A Case-Control Study

Introduction

The association of vegetarian status with the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) is not clear. In Asia, Buddhists often have vegetarian behavior for religious rather than for health reasons. We hypothesize that the vegetarian in Buddhism is associated with better metabolic profiles, lower risk for the MetS and insulin resistance (IR).

Methods

We enrolled 391 female vegetarians (∼80% lacto-ovo-vegetarians) and 315 non-vegetarians from health-checkup clinics at a Buddhist hospital in Taiwan.

Results

The vegetarian status was associated with lower body mass index, smaller waist circumference, lower total cholesterol, lower low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), and lower HDL-C in multivariate linear regression analyses. Despite having lower HDL-C level, the vegetarians had significantly lower total cholesterol/HDL-C and LDL-C/HDL-C ratios. After adjusting the other covariates, the risks for the MetS were lower for ovo-lacto-vegetarians of 1–11 years and >11 years respectively by 54% (odds ratio [OR] = 0.46, 95%C.I.:0.26–0.79) and 57% (OR = 0.43, 95%C.I.:0.23–0.76) compared to non-vegetarians by the IDF criteria. Likewise, they were lower respectively by 45% (OR = 0.55, 95%C.I.:0.32–0.92) and 42% (OR = 0.58, 95%C.I.:0.33–0.997), for the MetS by the modified NCEP criteria. In the subgroup of non-diabetic subjects, the vegetarians also had lower risk for IR by HOMA compared to the non-vegetarians (OR = 0.71, 95%C.I.:0.48–1.06).

Conclusion

The vegetarian behavior, mainly lacto-ovo-vegetarian, related to Buddhism, although not meant for its health effects, is associated with reduced risk for the MetS and IR and may potentially provide metabolic and cardiovascular protective effects in women.     

Demonstrating the Use of High-Volume Electronic Medical Claims Data to Monitor Local and Regional Influenza Activity in the US

Introduction

Fine-grained influenza surveillance data are lacking in the US, hampering our ability to monitor disease spread at a local scale. Here we evaluate the performances of high-volume electronic medical claims data to assess local and regional influenza activity.

Material and Methods

We used electronic medical claims data compiled by IMS Health in 480 US locations to create weekly regional influenza-like-illness (ILI) time series during 2003–2010. IMS Health captured 62% of US outpatient visits in 2009. We studied the performances of IMS-ILI indicators against reference influenza surveillance datasets, including CDC-ILI outpatient and laboratory-confirmed influenza data. We estimated correlation in weekly incidences, peak timing and seasonal intensity across datasets, stratified by 10 regions and four age groups (<5, 5–29, 30–59, and 60+ years). To test IMS-Health performances at the city level, we compared IMS-ILI indicators to syndromic surveillance data for New York City. We also used control data on laboratory-confirmed Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity to test the specificity of IMS-ILI for influenza surveillance.

Results

Regional IMS-ILI indicators were highly synchronous with CDC''s reference influenza surveillance data (Pearson correlation coefficients rho≥0.89; range across regions, 0.80–0.97, P<0.001). Seasonal intensity estimates were weakly correlated across datasets in all age data (rho≤0.52), moderately correlated among adults (rho≥0.64) and uncorrelated among school-age children. IMS-ILI indicators were more correlated with reference influenza data than control RSV indicators (rho = 0.93 with influenza v. rho = 0.33 with RSV, P<0.05). City-level IMS-ILI indicators were highly consistent with reference syndromic data (rho≥0.86).

Conclusion

Medical claims-based ILI indicators accurately capture weekly fluctuations in influenza activity in all US regions during inter-pandemic and pandemic seasons, and can be broken down by age groups and fine geographical areas. Medical claims data provide more reliable and fine-grained indicators of influenza activity than other high-volume electronic algorithms and should be used to augment existing influenza surveillance systems.     

Evaluation of Two Influenza Surveillance Systems in South Africa

Background

The World Health Organisation recommends outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) and inpatient severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance. We evaluated two influenza surveillance systems in South Africa: one for ILI and another for SARI.

Methodology

The Viral Watch (VW) programme has collected virological influenza surveillance data voluntarily from patients with ILI since 1984 in private and public clinics in all 9 South African provinces. The SARI surveillance programme has collected epidemiological and virological influenza surveillance data since 2009 in public hospitals in 4 provinces by dedicated personnel. We compared nine surveillance system attributes from 2009–2012.

Results

We analysed data from 18,293 SARI patients and 9,104 ILI patients. The annual proportion of samples testing positive for influenza was higher for VW (mean 41%) than SARI (mean 8%) and generally exceeded the seasonal threshold from May to September (VW: weeks 21–40; SARI: weeks 23–39). Data quality was a major strength of SARI (most data completion measures >90%; adherence to definitions: 88–89%) and a relative weakness of the VW programme (62% of forms complete, with limited epidemiologic data collected; adherence to definitions: 65–82%). Timeliness was a relative strength of both systems (e.g. both collected >93% of all respiratory specimens within 7 days of symptom onset). ILI surveillance was more nationally representative, financially sustainable and expandable than the SARI system. Though the SARI programme is not nationally representative, the high quality and detail of SARI data collection sheds light on the local burden and epidemiology of severe influenza-associated disease.

Conclusions

To best monitor influenza in South Africa, we propose that both ILI and SARI should be under surveillance. Improving ILI surveillance will require better quality and more systematic data collection, and SARI surveillance should be expanded to be more nationally representative, even if this requires scaling back on information gathered.     

Effective Detection of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in U.S. Veterans Affairs Medical Centers Using a National Electronic Biosurveillance System

Background

The 2008–09 influenza season was the time in which the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) utilized an electronic biosurveillance system for tracking and monitoring of influenza trends. The system, known as ESSENCE or Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics, was monitored for the influenza season as well as for a rise in influenza cases at the start of the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic. We also describe trends noted in influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient encounter data in VA medical centers during the 2008–09 influenza season, before and after the recognition of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We determined prevalence of ILI coded visits using VA''s ESSENCE for 2008–09 seasonal influenza (Sept. 28, 2008–April 25, 2009 corresponding to CDC 2008–2009 flu season weeks 40–16) and the early period of pandemic H1N1 2009 (April 26, 2009–July 31, 2009 corresponding to CDC 2008–2009 flu season weeks 17–30). Differences in diagnostic ICD-9-CM code frequencies were analyzed using Chi-square and odds ratios. There were 649,574 ILI encounters captured representing 633,893 patients. The prevalence of VA ILI visits mirrored the CDC''s Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (ILINet) data with peaks in late December, early February, and late April/early May, mirroring the ILINet data; however, the peaks seen in the VA were smaller. Of 31 ILI codes, 6 decreased and 11 increased significantly during the early period of pandemic H1N1 2009. The ILI codes that significantly increased were more likely to be symptom codes. Although influenza with respiratory manifestation (487.1) was the most common code used among 150 confirmed pandemic H1N1 2009 cases, overall it significantly decreased since the start of the pandemic.

Conclusions/Significance

VA ESSENCE effectively detected and tracked changing ILI trends during pandemic H1N1 2009 and represents an important temporal alerting system for monitoring health events in VA facilities.     

Prospective Validation of a Prognostic Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis in Late Preterm Infants: A Multicenter Birth Cohort Study

Objectives

This study aimed to update and validate a prediction rule for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in preterm infants 33–35 weeks gestational age (WGA).

Study Design

The RISK study consisted of 2 multicenter prospective birth cohorts in 41 hospitals. Risk factors were assessed at birth among healthy preterm infants 33–35 WGA. All hospitalizations for respiratory tract infection were screened for proven RSV infection by immunofluorescence or polymerase chain reaction. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to update an existing prediction model in the derivation cohort (n = 1,227). In the validation cohort (n = 1,194), predicted versus actual RSV hospitalization rates were compared to determine validity of the model.

Results

RSV hospitalization risk in both cohorts was comparable (5.7% versus 4.9%). In the derivation cohort, a prediction rule to determine probability of RSV hospitalization was developed using 4 predictors: family atopy (OR 1.9; 95%CI, 1.1–3.2), birth period (OR 2.6; 1.6–4.2), breastfeeding (OR 1.7; 1.0–2.7) and siblings or daycare attendance (OR 4.7; 1.7–13.1). The model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.703; 0.64–0.76, 0.702 after bootstrapping). External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (c-statistic 0.678; 0.61–0.74).

Conclusions

Our prospectively validated prediction rule identifies infants at increased RSV hospitalization risk, who may benefit from targeted preventive interventions. This prediction rule can facilitate country-specific, cost-effective use of RSV prophylaxis in late preterm infants.     

Recording of Influenza-Like Illness in UK Primary Care 1995-2013: Cohort Study

Background

There is a lack of recent studies examining recording of influenza-like illness (ILI) in primary care in the UK over time and according to population characteristics. Our aim was to determine time trends and socio-demographic patterns of ILI recorded consultations in primary care.

Methods

We used The Health Improvement Network (THIN) UK primary care database and extracted data on all ILI consultations between 1995 and 2013. We estimated ILI recorded consultation rates per 100,000 person-weeks (pw) by age, gender, deprivation and winter season. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine time trends and the effect of socio-demographic characteristics. Trends in ILI recorded consultations were compared to trends in consultations with less specific symptoms (cough or fever) recorded.

Results

The study involved 7,682,908 individuals in 542 general practices. The ILI consultation rate decreased from 32.5/100,000 pw (95% confidence interval (CI) 32.1, 32.9) in 1995–98 to 15.5/100,000 pw (95% CI 15.4, 15.7) by 2010–13. The decrease occurred prior to 2002/3, and rates have remained largely stable since then. Declines were evident in all age groups. In comparison, cough or fever consultation rates increased from 169.4/100,000 pw (95% CI 168.6, 170.3) in 1995–98 to 237.7/100,000 pw (95% CI 237.2, 238.2) in 2010–13. ILI consultation rates were highest among individuals aged 15–44 years, higher in women than men, and in individuals from deprived areas.

Conclusion

There is substantial variation in ILI recorded consultations over time and by population socio-demographic characteristics, most likely reflecting changing recording behaviour by GPs. These results highlight the difficulties in using coded information from electronic primary care records to measure the severity of influenza epidemics across time and assess the relative burden of ILI in different population subgroups.     

Case Fatality Rates Based on Population Estimates of Influenza-Like Illness Due to Novel H1N1 Influenza: New York City,May–June 2009

Background

The public health response to pandemic influenza is contingent on the pandemic strain''s severity. In late April 2009, a potentially pandemic novel H1N1 influenza strain (nH1N1) was recognized. New York City (NYC) experienced an intensive initial outbreak that peaked in late May, providing the need and opportunity to rapidly quantify the severity of nH1N1.

Methods and Findings

Telephone surveys using rapid polling methods of approximately 1,000 households each were conducted May 20–27 and June 15–19, 2009. Respondents were asked about the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI, fever with either cough or sore throat) for each household member from May 1–27 (survey 1) or the preceding 30 days (survey 2). For the overlap period, prevalence data were combined by weighting the survey-specific contribution based on a Serfling model using data from the NYC syndromic surveillance system. Total and age-specific prevalence of ILI attributed to nH1N1 were estimated using two approaches to adjust for background ILI: discounting by ILI prevalence in less affected NYC boroughs and by ILI measured in syndromic surveillance data from 2004–2008. Deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions were determined from enhanced surveillance including nH1N1-specific testing. Combined ILI prevalence for the 50-day period was 15.8% (95% CI:13.2%–19.0%). The two methods of adjustment yielded point estimates of nH1N1-associated ILI of 7.8% and 12.2%. Overall case-fatality (CFR) estimates ranged from 0.054–0.086 per 1000 persons with nH1N1-associated ILI and were highest for persons ≥65 years (0.094–0.147 per 1000) and lowest for those 0–17 (0.008–0.012). Hospitalization rates ranged from 0.84–1.34 and ICU admission rates from 0.21–0.34 per 1000, with little variation in either by age-group.

Conclusions

ILI prevalence can be quickly estimated using rapid telephone surveys, using syndromic surveillance data to determine expected “background” ILI proportion. Risk of severe illness due to nH1N1 was similar to seasonal influenza, enabling NYC to emphasize preventing severe morbidity rather than employing aggressive community mitigation measures.     

Gastrointestinal and Respiratory Illness in Children That Do and Do Not Attend Child Day Care Centers: A Cost-of-Illness Study

Background

Gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases are major causes of morbidity for young children, particularly for those children attending child day care centers (DCCs). Although both diseases are presumed to cause considerable societal costs for care and treatment of illness, the extent of these costs, and the difference of these costs between children that do and do not attend such centers, is largely unknown.

Objective

Estimate the societal costs for care and treatment of episodes of gastroenteritis (GE) and influenza-like illness (ILI) experienced by Dutch children that attend a DCC, compared to children that do not attend a DCC.

Methods

A web-based monthly survey was conducted among households with children aged 0–48 months from October 2012 to October 2013. Households filled-in a questionnaire on the incidence of GE and ILI episodes experienced by their child during the past 4 weeks, on the costs related to care and treatment of these episodes, and on DCC arrangements. Costs and incidence were adjusted for socioeconomic characteristics including education level, nationality and monthly income of parents, number of children in the household, gender and age of the child and month of survey conduct.

Results

Children attending a DCC experienced higher rates of GE (aIRR 1.4 [95%CI: 1.2–1.9]) and ILI (aIRR: 1.4 [95%CI: 1.2–1.6]) compared to children not attending a DCC. The societal costs for care and treatment of an episode of GE and ILI experienced by a DCC-attending child were estimated at €215.45 [€115.69–€315.02] and €196.32 [€161.58–€232.74] respectively, twice as high as for a non-DCC-attending child. The DCC-attributable economic burden of GE and ILI for the Netherlands was estimated at €25 million and €72 million per year.

Conclusions

Although children attending a DCC experience only slightly higher rates of GE and ILI compared to children not attending a DCC, the costs involved per episode are substantially higher.     

Bed-Sharing in the Absence of Hazardous Circumstances: Is There a Risk of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome? An Analysis from Two Case-Control Studies Conducted in the UK

Objective

The risk of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) among infants who co-sleep in the absence of hazardous circumstances is unclear and needs to be quantified.

Design

Combined individual-analysis of two population-based case-control studies of SIDS infants and controls comparable for age and time of last sleep.

Setting

Parents of 400 SIDS infants and 1386 controls provided information from five English health regions between 1993–6 (population: 17.7 million) and one of these regions between 2003–6 (population:4.9 million).

Results

Over a third of SIDS infants (36%) were found co-sleeping with an adult at the time of death compared to 15% of control infants after the reference sleep (multivariate OR = 3.9 [95% CI: 2.7–5.6]). The multivariable risk associated with co-sleeping on a sofa (OR = 18.3 [95% CI: 7.1–47.4]) or next to a parent who drank more than two units of alcohol (OR = 18.3 [95% CI: 7.7–43.5]) was very high and significant for infants of all ages. The risk associated with co-sleeping next to someone who smoked was significant for infants under 3 months old (OR = 8.9 [95% CI: 5.3–15.1]) but not for older infants (OR = 1.4 [95% CI: 0.7–2.8]). The multivariable risk associated with bed-sharing in the absence of these hazards was not significant overall (OR = 1.1 [95% CI: 0.6–2.0]), for infants less than 3 months old (OR = 1.6 [95% CI: 0.96–2.7]), and was in the direction of protection for older infants (OR = 0.1 [95% CI: 0.01–0.5]). Dummy use was associated with a lower risk of SIDS only among co-sleepers and prone sleeping was a higher risk only among infants sleeping alone.

Conclusion

These findings support a public health strategy that underlines specific hazardous co-sleeping environments parents should avoid. Sofa-sharing is not a safe alternative to bed-sharing and bed-sharing should be avoided if parents consume alcohol, smoke or take drugs or if the infant is pre-term.     

Increased Risk of Wheeze and Decreased Lung Function after Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection

Background

A relationship between hospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis and asthma development has been suggested in case-control studies.

Objective

The aim of this study was to assess the risk of current wheeze, asthma, and lung function at school age in infants previously hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis compared to non-hospitalized children.

Methods

For this study, data from a prospective birth cohort of unselected, term-born infants (n = 553), of whom 4 (0.7%) were hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis, and a prospective patient cohort of 155 term infants hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis were used. Respiratory outcomes at age 6 in children hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis were compared to non-hospitalized children.

Results

The risk of current wheeze was higher in hospitalized patients (n = 159) compared to non-hospitalized children (n = 549) (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.2 (95% CI 1.2–8.1). Similarly, the risk of current asthma, defined as a doctor’s diagnosis of asthma plus current symptoms or medication use, was higher in hospitalized patients (adjusted OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.3–7.5). Compared to non-hospitalized children, RSV bronchiolitis hospitalization was associated with lower lung function (mean difference FEV1% predicted −6.8 l (95% CI (−10.2 to −3.4).

Conclusions and Clinical Relevance

This is the first study showing that hospitalization for RSV bronchiolitis during infancy is associated with increased risk of wheezing, current asthma, and impaired lung function as compared to an unselected birth cohort at age 6.     

Impact of Intensive Handwashing Promotion on Secondary Household Influenza-Like Illness in Rural Bangladesh: Findings from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Rationale

There is little evidence for the efficacy of handwashing for prevention of influenza transmission in resource-poor settings. We tested the impact of intensive handwashing promotion on household transmission of influenza-like illness and influenza in rural Bangladesh.

Methods

In 2009–10, we identified index case-patients with influenza-like illness (fever with cough or sore throat) who were the only symptomatic person in their household. Household compounds of index case-patients were randomized to control or intervention (soap and daily handwashing promotion). We conducted daily surveillance and collected oropharyngeal specimens. Secondary attack ratios (SAR) were calculated for influenza and ILI in each arm. Among controls, we investigated individual risk factors for ILI among household contacts of index case-patients.

Results

Among 377 index case-patients, the mean number of days between fever onset and study enrollment was 2.1 (SD 1.7) among the 184 controls and 2.6 (SD 2.9) among 193 intervention case-patients. Influenza infection was confirmed in 20% of controls and 12% of intervention index case-patients. The SAR for influenza-like illness among household contacts was 9.5% among intervention (158/1661) and 7.7% among control households (115/1498) (SAR ratio 1.24, 95% CI 0.92–1.65). The SAR ratio for influenza was 2.40 (95% CI 0.68–8.47). In the control arm, susceptible contacts <2 years old (RR_adj 5.51, 95% CI 3.43–8.85), those living with an index case-patient enrolled ≤24 hours after symptom onset (RR_adj 1.91, 95% CI 1.18–3.10), and those who reported multiple daily interactions with the index case-patient (RR_adj 1.94, 95% CI 1.71–3.26) were at increased risk of influenza-like illness.

Discussion

Handwashing promotion initiated after illness onset in a household member did not protect against influenza-like illness or influenza. Behavior may not have changed rapidly enough to curb transmission between household members. A reactive approach to reduce household influenza transmission through handwashing promotion may be ineffective in the context of rural Bangladesh.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00880659     

Estimates of pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2009-2010: results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) multicentre case-control study

Background

A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009–2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1).

Methods and Findings

Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6–85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4–89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8–87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9–84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1–88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4–89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI −69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8–14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009–2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI −65.2 to 50.9).

Conclusions

Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009–2010 seasonal influenza vaccine. However, the late availability of the pandemic vaccine and subsequent limited coverage with this vaccine hampered our ability to study vaccine benefits during the outbreak period. Future studies should include estimation of the effectiveness of the new trivalent vaccine in the upcoming 2010–2011 season, when vaccination will occur before the influenza season starts. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

School-Located Influenza Vaccination Reduces Community Risk for Influenza and Influenza-Like Illness Emergency Care Visits

Background

School-located influenza vaccination (SLIV) programs can substantially enhance the sub-optimal coverage achieved under existing delivery strategies. Randomized SLIV trials have shown these programs reduce laboratory-confirmed influenza among both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. This work explores the effectiveness of a SLIV program in reducing the community risk of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) associated emergency care visits.

Methods

For the 2011/12 and 2012/13 influenza seasons, we estimated age-group specific attack rates (AR) for ILI from routine surveillance and census data. Age-group specific SLIV program effectiveness was estimated as one minus the AR ratio for Alachua County versus two comparison regions: the 12 county region surrounding Alachua County, and all non-Alachua counties in Florida.

Results

Vaccination of ∼50% of 5–17 year-olds in Alachua reduced their risk of ILI-associated visits, compared to the rest of Florida, by 79% (95% confidence interval: 70, 85) in 2011/12 and 71% (63, 77) in 2012/13. The greatest indirect effectiveness was observed among 0–4 year-olds, reducing AR by 89% (84, 93) in 2011/12 and 84% (79, 88) in 2012/13. Among all non-school age residents, the estimated indirect effectiveness was 60% (54, 65) and 36% (31, 41) for 2011/12 and 2012/13. The overall effectiveness among all age-groups was 65% (61, 70) and 46% (42, 50) for 2011/12 and 2012/13.

Conclusion

Wider implementation of SLIV programs can significantly reduce the influenza-associated public health burden in communities.     

Estimated Number of Patients with Influenza A(H1)pdm09, or Other Viral Types,from 2010 to 2014 in Japan

Infectious disease surveillance systems provide information crucial for protecting populations from influenza epidemics. However, few have reported the nationwide number of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI), detailing virological type. Using data from the infectious disease surveillance system in Japan, we estimated the weekly number of ILI cases by virological type, including pandemic influenza (A(H1)pdm09) and seasonal-type influenza (A(H3) and B) over a four-year period (week 36 of 2010 to week 18 of 2014). We used the reported number of influenza cases from nationwide sentinel surveillance and the proportions of virological types from infectious agents surveillance and estimated the number of cases and their 95% confidence intervals. For the 2010/11 season, influenza type A(H1)pdm09 was dominant: 6.48 million (6.33–6.63), followed by types A(H3): 4.05 million (3.90–4.21) and B: 2.84 million (2.71–2.97). In the 2011/12 season, seasonal influenza type A(H3) was dominant: 10.89 million (10.64–11.14), followed by type B: 5.54 million (5.32–5.75). In conclusion, close monitoring of the estimated number of ILI cases by virological type not only highlights the huge impact of previous influenza epidemics in Japan, it may also aid the prediction of future outbreaks, allowing for implementation of control and prevention measures.     

A Prospective Study of Romanian Agriculture Workers for Zoonotic Influenza Infections

Background

In this prospective study we sought to examine seroepidemiological evidence for acute zoonotic influenza virus infection among Romanian agricultural workers.

Methods

Sera were drawn upon enrollment (2009) and again at 12 and 24 months from 312 adult agriculture workers and 51 age-group matched controls. Participants were contacted monthly for 24 months and queried regarding episodes of acute influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Cohort members meeting ILI criteria permitted respiratory swab collections as well as acute and convalescent serum collection. Serologic assays were performed against 9 avian, 3 swine, and 3 human influenza viruses.

Results

During the two-year follow-up, a total of 23 ILI events were reported. Two subjects'' specimens were identified as influenza A by rRT-PCR. During the follow-up period, three individuals experienced elevated microneutralization antibody titers ≥1∶80 against three (one each) avian influenza viruses: A/Teal/Hong Kong/w312/97(H6N1), A/Hong Kong/1073/1999(H9N2), or A/Duck/Alberta/60/1976(H12N5). However, none of these participants met the criteria for poultry exposure. A number of subjects demonstrated four-fold increases over time in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay titers for at least one of the three swine influenza viruses (SIVs); however, it seems likely that two of these three responses were due to cross-reacting antibody against human influenza. Only elevated antibody titers against A/Swine/Flanders/1/1998(H3N2) lacked evidence for such confounding. In examining risk factors for elevated antibody against this SIV with multiple logistic regression, swine exposure (adjusted OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–2.8) and tobacco use (adjusted OR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–2.9) were important predictors.

Conclusions

While Romania has recently experienced multiple incursions of highly pathogenic avian influenza among domestic poultry, this cohort of Romanian agriculture workers had sparse evidence of avian influenza virus infections. In contrast, there was evidence, especially among the swine exposed participants, of infections with human and one swine H3N2 influenza virus.