Predicting potential distribution and identifying priority areas for conservation of the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Peru

Species distribution models (SDMs) provide conservationist with spatial distributions estimations of priority species. Lagothrix flavicauda (Humboldt, 1812), commonly known as the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey, is one of the largest primates in the New World. This species is endemic to the montane forests of northern Peru, in the departments of Amazonas, San Martín, Huánuco, Junín, La Libertad, and Loreto at elevation from1,000 to 2,800 m. It is classified as “Critically Endangered” (CR) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as well as by Peruvian legislation. Furthermore, it is listed in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Research on precise estimates of its potential distribution are scare. Therefore, in this study we modeled the potential distribution area of this species in Peru, the model was generated using the MaxEnt algorithm, along with 80 georeferenced occurrence records and 28 environmental variables. The total distribution (high, moderate, and low) for L. flavicauda is 29,383.3 km², having 3,480.7 km² as high potential distribution. In effect, 22.64 % (6,648.49 km²) of the total distribution area of L. flavicauda is found within Natural Protected Areas (NPAs), with the following categories representing the largest areas of distribution: Protected Forests (1,620.41 km²), Regional Conservation Areas (1,976.79 km²), and Private Conservation Areas (1,166.55 km²). After comparing the predicted distribution with the current NPAs system, we identified new priority areas for the conservation of the species. We, therefore, believe that this study will contribute significantly to the conservation of L. flavicauda in Peru.     

Predicting potential distribution and identifying priority areas for conservation of the lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris) in Peruvian Amazon

A key conservation biology tool is the information on the geographic distribution of species as well as the variables driving those patterns. Here, we used maximum entropy modeling, MaxEnt, to model the total potential distribution of Tapirus terrestris, classified as “Vulnerable” on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. In this study, we recorded 117 occurrence records and considered 18 environmental variables. The total potential distribution area covers 96,055.6 km², meaning 12.3 % of the territory of the Peruvian Amazon, with “high potential” habitat covering 3,891.36 km², “moderate potential” habitat covering 22,849.5 km², and “low potential” habitat covering 69,314.7 km². Natural Protected Areas (NPAs) shelter 32.2 % (30,966.2 km²) of the total potential distribution area of the species, being the Bahuaja Sonene and Manu National Parks, the NPAs with the largest total potential distribution, 8,220.2 km² and 7,619.7 km² respectively. Eventually, 67.8 % (65,089.4 km²) of the total potential distribution were identified without any type of protection category by SINANPE and its complementary categories; therefore, we consider this area as a priority for the conservation of T. terrestris in Peru.     

Using niche modelling and human influence index to indicate conservation priorities for Atlantic forest deer species

To prioritise conservation actions and management strategies for threatened forest deer species at the Atlantic forest, we aimed to identify and describe the most suitable habitat areas for forest deer species and to indicate conservation measures for state agents and local communities. We adopt an approach based on ecological niche modelling, key variable thresholds and spatial analyses. In addition, we associated our approach with a human influence index, an invasive species dataset of occurrences, protected area cover and IUCN category. We indicate 2 % (484 km²) of the Atlantic forest cover as conservation priority areas (CPAs). Of these, 56.8 % are outside protected areas, 20.7 % are inside IUCN categories i, ii and iii protected areas, 19.9 % are inside IUCN categories iv, v, and vi protected areas, and 2.6 % are inside indigenous areas. Also, we indicate the most relevant protected areas for deer conservation in the Atlantic forest. The CPAs were classified into more human-influenced areas (MHIA) and less human-influenced areas (LHIA), and we identified 21 significant (greater than120 km²) continuous CPAs outside protected areas. We highlight actions in several perspectives of human influence, governance levels and law protection that would rationalise the use of funds and human resources.     

Habitat use,density, and conservation status of the white-browed guan (Penelope jacucaca Spix, 1825)

The white-browed guan (Cracidae: Penelope jacucaca) is an endemic bird species to the Caatinga, the largest centre of dry forest in South America. This taxon was considered Vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) due to continued habitat loss within its distribution and intense hunting pressure that contributed to population declines. However, information on population aspects and habitat use by P. jacucaca, which is fundamental for monitoring its conservation status, is not available. We studied habitat use (analysed in a Generalized Linear Model) and population density (estimated by distance sampling) in a specific area in Northeast Brazil. Using species distribution modelling (SDM), forest cover loss data (performed in the MaxEnt program) and quantitative information about hunting, more rigorous estimates of the distribution limits, available habitat, and population declines of P. jacucaca were generated. Based on the IUCN criteria, we applied analysed data to reassess the conservation status of the white-browed guan. Local density was estimated at 13.1 individuals/km² and the estimated number of individuals removed per year due to hunting was 121.7 in the forest cover area (110.46 km²) of the Serra de Santa Catarina. Consequently, the annual removal rate of hunted individuals in the study area corresponds to approximately 11% of the population. The habitat use analysis pointed to a strong positive association with seasonally dry deciduous forest (SDDF) vegetation and with arboreal vegetation. The SDM indicated a potential distribution (climatically favourable) area of 675,823 km², and forest cover and loss calculations indicated a total of 81,307 km² of available suitable habitat in 2013. Therefore, comparing these results to the IUCN criteria, we recommend that P. jacucaca remain in the Vulnerable category.     

Spatial ecology and conservation of the microendemic ovenbird Cipo Cinclodes (Cinclodes espinhacensis) from the Brazilian highlands

Birds in the genus Cinclodes are habitat specialists, with most restricted to the highlands of South America. The recently described Cipo Cinclodes (C. espinhacensis) is isolated in the southern Espinhaço Range of Brazil and is considered Endangered in Brazil and Near Threatened by the IUCN, but as a subspecies of Long‐tailed Cinclodes (C. pabsti). We examined the population and spatial ecology of Cipo Cinclodes at two geographic scales to improve our understanding of their basic biology and conservation status. We monitored 30 birds at Serra do Breu and found relatively large home ranges (mean = 9.3 ha), a density of paired adults of 0.09/ha, a male‐skewed adult sex ratio (males/total adults = 0.57) due to territories occupied by unpaired males, and long‐term site fidelity. Cipo Cinclodes used all habitat types available in our study area, including rocky outcrops, grasslands, and riparian areas, but habitat selection analyses revealed the importance of riparian areas for foraging and rocky outcrops for nesting. At the species distribution scale, we compiled known and novel recorded occurrence points and used them to calculate the extent of occurrence (EOO) and the area of occupancy (AOO). We used a Maxent species distribution model to generate a binary map to estimate upper limits for EOO (EOO around the model predicted area) and AOO (comprised by the model predicted area within the EOO). We obtained 41 locations, resulting in an EOO of 890.7 km² (up to 1748.7 km²) and an AOO of 100 km² (up to 327.5 km²). The global population is estimated to be between 880 and 2882 birds, which is concerning because small populations are at risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity, genetic drift, and the interaction of these factors. As such, our results support the designation of Cipo Cinclodes as Endangered on the Brazilian red list.     

Using predictive modelling to guide the conservation of a critically endangered coastal wetland amphibian

Amphibians are the most threatened Class of vertebrate, with wetland-associated anurans in particular suffering high levels of habitat loss. We used predictive modelling to better understand the distribution of a critically endangered South African endemic (Hyperolius pickersgilli) and to guide conservation action. MaxEnt distribution models were produced based on limited occurrence data. Predicted localities with probability of occurrence ≥60% were surveyed. Ten new sub-populations were discovered. The mean probability of occurrence for the species at wetlands where it was detected was greater than that at wetlands where it was not detected or absent. In addition, 17 known historical localities were re-visited and the species deemed absent at 8 of these. The total number of localities at which the species is now known to occur is 18, which is an increase in the known extant sub-populations of six. We recalculate the area of occupancy and extent of occurrence for the species as 108 km² and 2081.5 km², respectively; both increases on previous estimates. Implications of these changes on the IUCN Red List status of H. pickersgilli are discussed. A friction map was created to identify possible linkages between sub-populations, which can be used to guide habitat restoration and population repatriation. Given the degree of isolation of subpopulations and the potentially severe threats to most of these, urgent conservation action for H. pickersgilli remains crucial. This study provides a method for use in conservation planning for wetland-breeding amphibians in eastern coastal regions of Africa and elsewhere.     

Tree invasion in managed tropical forests facilitates endemic species

Aim To determine whether different abundances of introduced species of Cinchona (Rubiaceae) affect species composition and facilitate species richness in managed tropical forests, to test whether any facilitative effects on understorey species depend on forest type, and to investigate whether facilitative effects can be attributed to the ‘substitutive facilitation model’. Location Makawao Forest Reserve on Maui, Hawai’i, USA. Methods Cinchona species (Cinchona pubescens and Cinchona calisaya) were mapped within various forest types. In three forest types (ageing Eucalyptus and Pinus plantations, and near‐natural Acacia koa forests), we analysed environmental parameters (e.g. canopy cover, litter cover, pH value and soil depth) and the species composition of Cinchona‐invaded and non‐invaded plots; data were compared based on Cinchona cover and forest types. Habitat modelling for several endemic species and tree ferns was carried out to test whether Cinchona cover is an important variable for the probability of occurrence of these endemics. Results Cinchona species have naturalized mainly in Eucalyptus and Pinus plantations and Acacia koa forests and here add an additional shrub layer. In contrast to other studies, we revealed facilitative effects of Cinchona on native species within all forest types. Species richness is about 20% higher in invaded plots than in non‐invaded plots, and these show a nearly 50% higher proportion of endemic species, including tree ferns. The proportion of endemics even increases with increasing Cinchona cover. For several endemics, Cinchona is found to be an important variable for the probability of occurrence, and the removal of Cinchona cover as an explanatory variable lowers the model fit. In addition to Cinchona, variables delineating vegetation structure and light availability have a strong effect on the model fit. Main conclusions In the structurally simplified Hawaiian forests studied, Cinchona facilitated endemic species in accordance with the ‘substitutive facilitation model’. This contrasts with the results of an earlier study in the naturally treeless Galápagos highlands, which revealed a sharp decrease in the abundance of endemics under Cinchona canopy. These results illustrate that, through the same structural change (addition of a vegetation layer), an invasive species may exert divergent effects across different ecosystem types. The facilitation of endemic understorey species by invasive tree species in managed forests leads to a dilemma in conservation but also to new perspectives for ecosystem restoration.     

Distribution, density, and habitat use of the Korean water deer (Hydropotes inermis argyropus) in Korea

Water deer (Hydropotes inermis) belong to the genus Hydropotes, which is ecologically well adapted for environments ranging from desert to forest. Water deer tend to occupy the richest areas between forest and grasslands. There are two distinct subspecies in far East Asia: one in China (H. inermis inermis), and the other in Korea (H. inermis argyropus). Despite being listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, little is known about the water deer. The species occurs in most areas of the Korean peninsula, except for Seoul and Jeju Island. Kyunggi Province near Seoul showed the lowest rate (56%) due to urbanization. There was a high difference in their presence between inland (81%) and coastal (60%) areas . In addition, large cities (67%) showed much lower rates than did rural areas (83%) where human population size is relatively low. Water deer are distributed differently based on habitat type, with differences in mean density observed among lowland (6.93 ind./km²), mountainous (1.91), and urban (1.27) areas. There was also a difference in mean density between low-elevation and high-elevation areas. Finally, whereas the deer preferred landscapes with 20°–25° of slope and broadleaf forest (P < 0.01), they did not avoid areas with other types of slopes and habitats.     

Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province,China

Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate‐related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km² under current conditions and 228,997 km² under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km² and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.     

Simulation of the potential distribution of rare and endangered Satyrium species in China under climate change

Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. In this study, optimized MaxEnt models were used in analyzing potential geographical distributions under current and future climatic conditions (the 2050s and 2070s) and dominant environmental variables influencing their geographic distribution. The results provided reference for implementation of long‐term conservation and management approaches for the species. The results showed that the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 10⁴ km², the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 10⁴ km², and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 10⁴ km² under current climatic conditions. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental variables influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11). Environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) affected the geographical distribution of S. nepalense; and environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and lower temperature of coldest month (bio6) affected the geographical distribution of S. yunnanense. The distribution range of Satyrium was extended as global warming increased, showing emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1‐2.6) and higher concentration (SSP5‐8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat will shift with a change to higher elevation areas and higher latitude areas in the future.     

Ecological modelling for the conservation of Gluta travancorica Bedd. - An endemic tree species of southern Western Ghats,India

Endemic species are highly adapted to grow exclusively in a specific geographical area. The goal of the current study is to determine the probable habitat distribution range of the narrowly endemic species Gluta travancorica. An ecological niche modelling is carried out, using four different models viz., BioClim, MaxEnt, Random Forest and Deep Neural Networks (DNN). A total of 506 G. travancorica cluster locations were surveyed and used for this study with thirty different ecogeographic, edaphic and bioclimatic environmental parameters. After a preliminary investigation using multi-collinearity analysis, soil parameter variables like pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), silt and clay content are used for final modelling. Factor analysis of ecological niche revealed the soil parameters like pH, CEC, silt and clay content as the key predictors. The result is validated using true skill statistics, sensitivity, specificity, kappa statistic and AUC-ROC. Results of the present study show that DNN have exceptional prediction performance, demonstrated by its AUC score of 0.959. DNN model projected 32.37% (938.18 km²) of the study region to have a ‘highly suitable habitat’, whereas 67.63% (1960.82 km²) was classified as having ‘low habitat suitability’. Besides, back-to-field assessments have also proven DNN's potential in predicting the habitat suitability of G. travancorica. The study results will facilitate the prioritization of conservation and seedling restoration strategies. The forest range explored in this work is a component of one of the most important global biodiversity hotspots, and it has significant implications for regional biodiversity conservation.     

New insights into the distribution and conservation status of the Golden-White Tassel-Ear Marmoset <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mico chrysoleucos</Emphasis> (Primates,Callitrichidae)

Among the 13 Mico species recognized by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, six are listed as “Data Deficient”. The geographic range of most of the Mico species has been estimated from only a few records. We report new localities and the geographic extension of Mico chrysoleucos. In addition, we confirmed the presence of the species in two distinct protected areas. We modeled the habitat suitability of M. chrysoleucos using the maximum entropy method and including new records obtained by the authors in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. From the total area of occurrence calculated for the species, 22.8% is covered by protected areas and indigenous lands. The annual mean deforestation rate estimated between 2000 and 2015 was 2.95%, and the total area deforested by 2015 was 3354 km² or 8.6% of the total distribution limits of the species. The habitat lost between 2000 and 2015 was 3.2% (1131 km²) of the total potential distribution, while the habitat loss area legally protected was 31 km², and the habitat loss in settlements was equal to 691 km². Our results extend the geographic distribution of the species about 100 km farther south, with the Maracanã River being a possible geographic barrier for the species. The significantly low rate of habitat loss inside protected areas and indigenous land, when compared to unprotected areas, points out the importance of these areas to M. chrysoleucos conservation. The species is relatively wide-ranging, legally protected, and resilient to regional anthropic threats. However, the hydroelectric schemes and the improvement of the road system in southern Amazonia pose an imminent threat to the species.     

Population status and distribution modelling of the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis)

The riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis) is one of the most endangered mammals in the world due to fragmentation of its habitat in the semi‐arid Karoo region of South Africa, to which it is endemic. It is an umbrella conservation species for the riparian shrubland associated with the seasonal drainage system of the Karoo, where its presence is an indicator of ecosystem health. In this study, we analysed historical survey data to derive an improved assessment of the current B. monticularis population status and distribution. Geospatial analysis was conducted using geographical information systems, and distribution modelling was performed using Maxent. Extent of occurrence for the species is 54,227 km², and area of occupancy is 2943 km². Estimates of 157–207 mature individuals confirm an alarmingly small species population size, and it appears that no subpopulation has >50 mature individuals. Our findings thus support the continued classification of this species as ‘critically endangered’ under IUCN Red List criteria. However, with most remaining habitat occurring outside of protected areas, and with habitat loss being exacerbated by climate change, a viable conservation plan remains elusive.     

Population densities,group size and biomass of ungulates in a lowland tropical rainforest forest of the eastern Himalayas

Large ungulate population monitoring is a crucial wildlife management tool as ungulates help in structuring and maintaining the large carnivore populations. Reliable data on population status of major ungulate prey species are still non-existent for most of the protected areas in the Indian part of the eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Twenty transects were monitored over a period of three years (2009–2011) totaling 600 km with an average length of 2 km. The estimated mean density of ungulates was 17.5 km⁻² with overall density of 48.7 km⁻². The wild pig Sus scrofa had the highest density (6.7 ± 1.2 km⁻²) among all the prey species followed by barking deer Muntiacus muntjak (3.9 ± 0.6 km⁻²), sambar Rusa unicolor (3.8 ± 0.5) and gaur Bos gaurus (3.5 ± 0.9 km⁻²). The estimated total ungulate biomass density was 2182.56 kg km⁻². This prey biomass can support up to 7.2 tigers per 100 km⁻². However, with two other sympatric carnivores sharing the same resources, the actual tiger numbers that can be supported will be lower. The estimated minor prey species was 31 km⁻² significantly 30.6% crop damages were reported by wild pig (p = 0.01) and 35.4% was elephant (p = 0.004). This data on ungulate densities and biomass will be crucial for carnivore conservation in this understudied globally significant biodiversity hotspot.     

Habitat suitability of Gymnocladus assamicus - A critically endangered plant of Arunachal Pradesh,India using machine learning and statistical modeling

The present study sought to identify the potential distribution range of critically endangered Gymnocladus assamicus in Arunachal Pradesh based on published data and field collection. We used the Maxent model to estimate the range of distribution and the result was then compared with three other models, i.e., the Generalized Linear Model (GLM), the Bioclim and the Random Forest model to assess the species' habitat suitability. A total of 23 different environmental variables were used, including bioclimatic ones, monthly minimum and maximum temperature, monthly precipitation and elevation data. The Maxent output listed 12 variables explaining 99.9% variation in the model. In comparison, Maxent showed the maximum region under habitat suitability criteria (1884.48 km²), followed by Random Forest (70.73 km²) and Bioclim (11.62 km²) model. Except for the Maxent model, suitable habitats predicted by other models are highly restricted within and across the study species' current distribution range. The average model prediction shows an expanded distribution range for the species up to Tawang which is the closest district of currently known distribution of the species in the state. Thus, the present study recognizes the importance of the geographic range of G. assamicus, a critically endangered species with very limited spatial distribution range and also provides some specific details to explore possible habitats for the species in new areas of potential occurrence in Arunachal Pradesh, India.     

Temporal and spatial gradients of humidity shape the occurrence and the behavioral manipulation of ants infected by entomopathogenic fungi in Central Amazon

Some species of the fungal genus Ophiocordyceps that parasitize ants have evolved some degree of behavioral manipulation to increase their own transmission. Carpenter ants (Camponotus spp.) infected by Ophiocordyceps unilateralis species climb vegetation and bite leaves or other plant parts before death, while other ants infected by other Ophiocordyceps species die buried within or on the leaf-litter, attached to stems and tree trunks. The microenvironment of the host's death location is important for fungal development and dispersal to new hosts, being an interesting example of an extended phenotype. This study investigated the effect of humidity variation in space (15 km²) and time (14 months) on the occurrence and expression of the extended Ophiocordyceps phenotype parasitizing ants in Central Amazonia. We found O. unilateralis s.l., O. kniphofioides s.l. and O. australis s.l. parasitizing 30 ant species, but O. unilateralis s.l. was by far the most abundant fungus. Parasitized Camponotus atriceps and C. bispinosus were more abundant and died in higher places in periods with greater air humidity. Otherwise, the abundance and height of C. senex cadavers were higher in drier plots. These results provide insights on how the spatial and temporal variation in air humidity may shape the occurrence and behavioral manipulation of ants infected by entomopathogenic fungi at larger scales.     

Distribution and conservation status of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Peru

The mountain tapir Tapirus pinchaque is one of the largest and most threatened mammals of the northern South American Andes. It is distributed in montane forests and paramos mainly above 2000 m, from Colombia to north Peru. The species is categorised as globally Endangered and is mainly threatened by habitat degradation, habitat loss and fragmentation. Although up-to-date information is lacking in Peru on its distribution, population and conservation status, this population could play an important part in the global persistence of the species. We compiled all known recent occurrence records for the species from Peru, as well as data from camera traps with an effort of over 10,000 camera/days between 2016 and 2018. We modelled the tapir’s distribution using remote-sensed vegetation indices, topographic and bioclimatic variables in MaxEnt, followed by post-processing steps to remove unoccupied areas, to produce a current range map for the species in Peru. We overlaid this with spatial information on threats and protected areas. We estimate a range of almost 183,000 ha in Peru, in two main regions, north and south of the Huancabamba river, of which approximately 60% is within protected areas. However, protection gaps still exist, especially in the south of its range. Mining concessions cover 27% of its current range and we estimate 28,000 ha of forest loss within its extent of occurrence between 2001 and 2020. We provide recommendations for its conservation, including priority areas for increased protection, binational initiatives to ensure connectivity with populations in Ecuador and to use the tapir as a flagship species in efforts to protect montane ecosystems for water conservation.     

Forecasting the future suitable growth areas and constructing ecological corridors for the vulnerable species Ephedra sinica in China

Ephedra sinica is a rare and vulnerable species in China, and the habitat of Ephedra sinica is seriously threatened (by climate change and human activities). Predicting the suitable growth areas and constructing ecological corridors for Ephedra sinica in China will help to protect it scientifically. Based on 306 valid distribution records and 13 selected environmental factors, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the potential current habitat zones and future (2050 and 2070) habitat zones of Ephedra sinica under four climate change scenarios. The minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was applied to extract important ecological corridors of Ephedra sinica. The results indicate that: (1) Under the current environment, the total area of the suitable habitat for Ephedra sinica in China is 42.24 × 10⁵ km², mainly distributed in Northwest China and North China. (2) Suitable area increases as the RCP rises. The center of mass of the habitat zone moved northward from Shaanxi Province to Ordos City in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. (3) Of the 13 environmental factors selected, the primary factor was elevation (20.8 %), followed by wettest month precipitation (18.2 %) and temperature seasonality (15.2 %). (4) Built 19 ecological corridors, with a total corridor length of 430.2 km, including seven long-distance passages and 12 short-distance corridors. All corridors are far from the artificial surface, mostly near high-altitude areas. The 19 ecological corridors constructed using the MCR model will also provide considerable importance for the survival of Ephedra sinica on a longer time scale in the future.     

Predicting current and future distributions of Mentha pulegium L. in Tunisia under climate change conditions,using the MaxEnt model

Climate change and human activities have caused the degeneration of the natural habitats of medicinal plants. Mentha pulegium L. is one of the most common medicinal plants in Tunisia that features high economic and ecological values. Predicting species' suitable habitats, through modeling, has evolved as a useful tool for the assessment of resource conservation to protect medicinal plants. Herein, we used MaxEnt model to predict current and future distributions of M. pulegium under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. MaxEnt modeling was in the “Excellent” category since all the AUCs were above 0.9. Results showed that high and moderate suitable habitats for the current distribution of M. pulegium encompassed ca. 9929 km² and 16,423 km², respectively. These areas are mainly located in North Tunisia. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) was identified as the most critical factor shaping M. pulegium distribution. Compared to the current distribution, the highly and moderately suitable areas for M. pulegium under the two RCPs (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) would decrease in the 2050s and 2070s. The model projected a shift of the suitable area from Northeastward to Center-eastward. These results may provide a useful tool for developing adaptive management strategies to enhance M. pulegium protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.     

Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park,China

Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the current (1950–2000) and future (2041–2060) habitat suitability by combining bioclimatic and environmental variables, and identified potential climate refugia for Tibetan brown bears in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Next, we selected Circuit model to simulate potential migration paths based on current and future climatically suitable habitat. Results indicate a total area of potential suitable habitat under the current climate scenario of approximately 31,649.46 km², of which 28,778.29 km² would be unsuitable by the 2050s. Potentially suitable habitat under the future climate scenario was projected to cover an area of 23,738.6 km². Climate refugia occupied 2,871.17 km², primarily in the midwestern and northeastern regions of Yangtze River Zone, as well as the northern region of Yellow River Zone. The altitude of climate refugia ranged from 4,307 to 5,524 m, with 52.93% lying at altitudes between 4,300 and 4,600 m. Refugia were mainly distributed on bare rock, alpine steppe, and alpine meadow. Corridors linking areas of potentially suitable brown bear habitat and a substantial portion of paths with low‐resistance value were distributed in climate refugia. We recommend various actions to ameliorate the impact of climate change on brown bears, such as protecting climatically suitable habitat, establishing habitat corridors, restructuring conservation areas, and strengthening monitoring efforts.