Predicting potential distribution and identifying priority areas for conservation of the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Peru

Species distribution models (SDMs) provide conservationist with spatial distributions estimations of priority species. Lagothrix flavicauda (Humboldt, 1812), commonly known as the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey, is one of the largest primates in the New World. This species is endemic to the montane forests of northern Peru, in the departments of Amazonas, San Martín, Huánuco, Junín, La Libertad, and Loreto at elevation from1,000 to 2,800 m. It is classified as “Critically Endangered” (CR) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as well as by Peruvian legislation. Furthermore, it is listed in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Research on precise estimates of its potential distribution are scare. Therefore, in this study we modeled the potential distribution area of this species in Peru, the model was generated using the MaxEnt algorithm, along with 80 georeferenced occurrence records and 28 environmental variables. The total distribution (high, moderate, and low) for L. flavicauda is 29,383.3 km², having 3,480.7 km² as high potential distribution. In effect, 22.64 % (6,648.49 km²) of the total distribution area of L. flavicauda is found within Natural Protected Areas (NPAs), with the following categories representing the largest areas of distribution: Protected Forests (1,620.41 km²), Regional Conservation Areas (1,976.79 km²), and Private Conservation Areas (1,166.55 km²). After comparing the predicted distribution with the current NPAs system, we identified new priority areas for the conservation of the species. We, therefore, believe that this study will contribute significantly to the conservation of L. flavicauda in Peru.     

Novel Data on the Ecology of Cochranella mache (Anura: Centrolenidae) and the Importance of Protected Areas for This Critically Endangered Glassfrog in the Neotropics

We studied a population of the endangered glassfrog, Cochranella mache, at Bilsa Biological Station, northwestern Ecuador, from 2008 and 2009. We present information on annual abundance patterns, behavioral ecology, habitat use and a species distribution model performed with MaxEnt. We evaluate the importance of the National System of Protected Areas (SNAP) in Colombia and Ecuador, under scenarios of climate change and habitat loss. We predicted a restricted environmental suitability area from 48,509 Km² to 65,147 Km² along western Ecuador and adjacent Colombia; ∼8% of the potential distribution occurs within SNAP. We examined four aspects of C. mache ecology: (1) ecological data suggests a strong correlation between relative abundance and rainfall, with a high probability to observe frogs through rainy months (February–May); (2) habitat use and the species distribution model suggest that this canopy dweller is restricted to small streams and rivulets in primary and old secondary forest in evergreen lowland and piedmont forest of western Ecuador, with predictions of suitability areas in adjacent southern Colombia; (3) the SNAP of Colombia and Ecuador harbor a minimum portion of the predicted model of distribution (<10%); and (4) synergetic effects of habitat loss and climate change reduces in about 95% the suitability areas for this endangered frog along its distributional range in Protected Areas. The resulting model allows the recognition of areas to undertake conservation efforts and plan future field surveys, as well as forecasting regions with high probability of C. mache occurrence in western Ecuador and southern Colombia. Further research is required to assess population tendencies, habitat fragmentation and target survey zones to accelerate the discovery of unknown populations in unexplored areas with high probability of suitability. We recommend that Cochranella mache must be re-categorized as “Critically Endangered” species in national and global status, according with criteria and sub-criteria A4, B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv),E.     

Identifying key conservation sites for the reptiles of the Tandilia mountains in Pampas highlands

Reptile populations are facing a global decline as a consequence of anthropic disturbs. For its conservation, it is necessary to know its geographical distribution and the main factors influencing it. Tandilia Mountains are located in the centre of Buenos Aires province, Argentina. These mountains contain high biodiversity and several endemic species, but the current Natural Protected Areas network covers a low area of ​​0.12 %. In this work, we modelled the geographic distribution of reptiles in the Tandilia Mountains to: a) explore the environmental factors affecting the distribution of reptiles on the highland grasslands of the Tandilia Mountain System and (b) identify the key biodiversity areas. We used ten environmental variables and several sources of records (fieldwork, scientific literature, museum collections, and an online database) to model the distribution of each reptile species. The best sites to propose natural reserves were determined in Zonation software. We determined the representativeness of the current system of Natural Protected Areas in the Tandilia Mountain range by overlapping the sites with the Zonation results. We obtained 20 species distribution models with two general patterns: continuous and patched. In most species, the two most informative variables were growing degree-days below 0 °C and precipitation of the wettest quarter. The current system of Natural Protected Areas of the Tandilia Mountains covers 0.35 % of the conservation priority sites (4341 km²) and therefore is insufficient in protecting reptile biodiversity.     

Constitutive heterochromatin,G-bands and nucleolus-organizer regions in four species of Didelphidae (Marsupialia)

Chromosomes of Didelphis albiventris, D. marsupialis, Philander opossum and Lutreolina crassicaudata, four species of marsupials with very similar karyotypes and 2n=22 were studied. All the chromosomes were acrocentrics except the X in L. crassicaudata, which is a metacentric.The G-band patterns of these species are similar but the distribution of constitutive heterochromatin differs among them as shown by C-banding. The hypothesis that the X in L. crassicaudata might be an isochromosome derived from the acrocentric X in the other species is discarded since G-and C-banding patterns differ in the two arms.In D. marsupialis the Ag-NORs are terminal and located in both arms of one pair and in the long arms of two pairs of medium-sized autosomes. In P. opossum the NOR-bearing chromosomes could be precisely identified through simultaneous silver staining and G-banding. The Ag-NORs are terminal and located at the short arm of pair 5 and the long arm of pair 7.     

Climate Change and the Distribution of Neotropical Red-Bellied Toads (Melanophryniscus,Anura, Amphibia): How to Prioritize Species and Populations?

We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.     

Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km² in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.     

The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.     

Predicting the effects of future climate change on the distribution of an endemic damselfly (Odonata,Coenagrionidae) in subtropical South American grasslands

Climate change is predicted to affect the distribution of freshwater taxa, and stronger impacts are expected on endemic species. However, the effects of future climates on freshwater insects from the Neotropical region have been generally overlooked. In this study, the distribution of a damselfly (Cyanallagma bonariense, Odonata, Coenagrionidae) endemic to the subtropical South American grasslands (Pampa) was modelled in relation to future scenarios of high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. For this purpose, ecological niche models were developed based on assumptions of limited dispersal and niche conservatism, and the projected distribution of C. bonariense was contrasted with the location of current protected areas (PAs) in the Pampa. A broad potential distribution of C. bonariense was indicated throughout the Pampa, and projections predicted a predominance of range contractions rather than range shifts in climatically suitable areas for C. bonariense in 2050 and 2070. Projections of suitable areas overlapped in central Argentina and southernmost Uruguay in these periods. Our results indicated a potential resilience of C. bonariense to future climate change, which is likely related to the low restrictions in habitat use of C. bonariense. In every projection, however, most PAs were expected to lose effectiveness, as by 2070 most PAs fall outside the range of the predicted distribution of C. bonariense. Thus, the creation or enlargement of PAs in these areas is recommended and these results represent an important information for the conservation of endemic freshwater insects under global warming scenarios in an overlooked Neotropical landscape.     

Priority areas for the conservation of the genus Abies Mill. (Pinaceae) in North America

Fir forests (Abies, Pinaceae) are dominant in temperate regions of North America; however, they have experienced high degradation rates that can threaten their long-term continuity. This study aimed to identify the priority areas for the conservation of the genus Abies in North America. First, we modeled the species distribution of the 17 native species through ecological niche modeling, considering 21 environmental variables. Then, we defined the priority areas through multi-criteria analysis, considering the species richness, geographic rareness, irreplaceability, habitat degradation, and risk extinction. We also built six scenarios, giving more priority to each criterion. Finally, we identified the proportion of the extent of the priority areas covered by protected areas. Elevation, precipitation seasonality, and winter precipitation influenced the distribution of most of the Abies species. When considering equal weights to each criterion, the priority areas summed up 6% of the total extent covered by the Abies species in North America. Most priority areas were located on the West Coast of the United States, the Eastern Sierra Madre, Southern Sierra Madre, Sierras of Chiapas and Central America, and the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt ecoregions. In these ecoregions, the Abies species are restricted to small areas facing high degradation levels. Only 16% of the area covered by the Abies species in North America is protected, mainly under restrictive schemes such as National Parks and Wilderness Areas. The priority areas identified could be the basis for establishing or enlarging protected areas. The preservation of the genus Abies could also maintain other ecological features and processes such as biodiversity, forest resources, and environmental services.     

Ecological niche modeling and geographic distribution of the genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Polianthes</Emphasis> L. (Agavaceae) in Mexico: using niche modeling to improve assessments of risk status

The genus Polianthes (Agavaceae) is endemic to Mexico and is important at the scientific, economical, and cultural level since prehispanic times. Habitat destruction is one of the main factors affecting populations of Polianthes species, yet little is known about the geographic distribution of this genus, and thus its vulnerability to habitat change. We compared three different approaches to measure the Polianthes species area of distribution to assess the risk of species extinction applying the MER (Method of Evaluation of Risk extinction of wild species for Mexico): area of occupancy, extent of occurrence, and ecological modeling. We also found the richness areas of distribution of this genus. We compared the species distributions with Terrestrial Protected Regions (TPR) and Natural Protected Areas (NPA). Although the three methods used to calculate the species area of distribution agree about the highly restricted nature of Polianthes species. The area of occupancy sub-estimate the species distribution, while the extent of occurrence over-estimate it for species with disjoint distribution. Thus, we recommend the use of ecological modeling to improve the assessment of the current species distribution area to apply the MER. Most Polianthes species are distributed in the Sierra Madre Occidental and Transvolcanic Belt. Three species do not occur in any of the NPA or TPR, one species has suitable habitat in three TPR but has not been recorded there, and one species, P. palustris, is likely extinct.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Climate change and the African baobab (Adansonia digitata L.): the need for better conservation strategies

The baobab tree, with more than 300 uses and commercial value in EU and United States, has been identified as one of the most important trees to be conserved and domesticated in Africa. A decline in baobab populations because of changes in climate could have a negative effect on African livelihoods. Therefore, it is important to study the potential future distribution of this species and determine strategies for conservation. We used Maxent, 480 geo‐referenced records, present and future climatic and soil layers. Different general circulation models and scenarios were selected. Models were simulated for (i) All records, (ii) East Africa and (iii) West Africa species records. For each combination, the proportion of the present habitat that might remain suitable in the future was determined. These habitat proportions were compared with the Protected Areas in Africa. Although potential future distributions were different depending on model, scenario and records used, in all cases only a percentage of the present distribution was predicted to remain suitable in the future. Some countries were found to have no suitable habitat in the future. Recommendations for different conservation strategies include in situ conservation in Protected Areas; ex situ conservation in seed banks; and conservation through ‘sustainable utilization’.     

Potential distributional shifts in North America of allelopathic invasive plant species under climate change models

Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios. Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics. Here, we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants—Ailanthus altissima, Casuarina equisetifolia, Centaurea stoebe ssp. micranthos, Dioscorea bulbifera, Lantana camara, and Schinus terebinthifolia—that are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change. We used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models. ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs, estimate current distributions, and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species. Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America. Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States, while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades, given projected changes in temperature and precipitation. Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.     

The Seascape of Demersal Fish Nursery Areas in the North Mediterranean Sea,a First Step Towards the Implementation of Spatial Planning for Trawl Fisheries

The identification of nursery grounds and other essential fish habitats of exploited stocks is a key requirement for the development of spatial conservation planning aimed at reducing the adverse impact of fishing on the exploited populations and ecosystems. The reduction in juvenile mortality is particularly relevant in the Mediterranean and is considered as one of the main prerequisites for the future sustainability of trawl fisheries. The distribution of nursery areas of 11 important commercial species of demersal fish and shellfish was analysed in the European Union Mediterranean waters using time series of bottom trawl survey data with the aim of identifying the most persistent recruitment areas. A high interspecific spatial overlap between nursery areas was mainly found along the shelf break of many different sectors of the Northern Mediterranean indicating a high potential for the implementation of conservation measures. Overlap of the nursery grounds with existing spatial fisheries management measures and trawl fisheries restricted areas was also investigated. Spatial analyses revealed considerable variation depending on species and associated habitat/depth preferences with increased protection seen in coastal nurseries and minimal protection seen for deeper nurseries (e.g. Parapenaeus longirostris 6%). This is partly attributed to existing environmental policy instruments (e.g. Habitats Directive and Mediterranean Regulation EC 1967/2006) aiming at minimising impacts on coastal priority habitats such as seagrass, coralligenous and maerl beds. The new knowledge on the distribution and persistence of demersal nurseries provided in this study can support the application of spatial conservation measures, such as the designation of no-take Marine Protected Areas in EU Mediterranean waters and their inclusion in a conservation network. The establishment of no-take zones will be consistent with the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy applying the ecosystem approach to fisheries management and with the requirements of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to maintain or achieve seafloor integrity and good environmental status.     

Diversity and distribution of aquatic insects in Southern Brazil wetlands: implications for biodiversity conservation in a Neotropical region

The selection of priority areas is an enormous challenge for biodiversity conservation. Some biogeographic methods have been used to identify the priority areas to conservation, and panbiogeography is one of them. This study aimed at the utilization of panbiogeographic tools, to identify the distribution patterns of aquatic insect genera, in wetland systems of an extensive area in the Neotropical region (approximately 280 000km2), and to compare the distribution of the biogeographic units identified by the aquatic insects, with the conservation units of Southern Brazil. We analyzed the distribution pattern of 82 genera distributed in four orders of aquatic insects (Diptera, Odonata, Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera) in Southern Brazil wetlands. Therefore, 32 biogeographic nodes corresponded to the priority areas for conservation of the aquatic insect diversity. Among this total, 13 were located in the Atlantic Rainforest, 16 in the Pampa and three amongst both biomes. The distribution of nodes showed that only 15% of the dispersion centers of insects were inserted in conservation units. The four priority areas pointed by node cluster criterion must be considered in further inclusions of areas for biodiversity conservation in Southern Brazil wetlands, since such areas present species from different ancestral biota. The inclusion of such areas into the conservation units would be a strong way to conserve the aquatic biodiversity in this region.     

Spatial conservation planning under climate change: Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan

Protected areas are the basis of modern conservation systems, but current climate change causes gaps between protected areas and the species distribution ranges. To mitigate the impact of climate change on species distribution ranges, revision of protected areas are necessary. Alternatively, active management such as excluding competitive species or transplanting target species would be effective. In this study, we assessed optimal actions (revision of protected areas or active management) in each geographical region to establish an effective spatial conservation plan in Japan. Gaps between the protected areas and future potential habitats were assessed using species distribution models and 20 future climate simulations. Fagus crenata, an endemic and dominant species in Japan, was used as a target species. Potential habitats within the protected areas were predicted to decrease from 22,122 km² at present to 12,309 km² under future climate conditions. Sustainable potential habitats (consistent potential habitats both at present and in future) without the protected areas extended to 13,208 km², and were mainly found in northeast Japan. These results suggest that, in northeast Japan, revisions to protected areas would be effective in preserving sustainable potential habitats under future climate change. However, the potential habitats of southwestern Japan, in which populations were genetically different from northeastern populations, were predicted to virtually disappear both within and outside of protected areas. Active management is thus necessary in southwestern Japan to ensure intraspecific genetic diversity under future climate change.     

Acrosomal integrity, viability, and DNA damage of sperm from dasyurid marsupials after freezing or freeze drying

Dasyurids are a diverse group of Australian native carnivores and insectivores that contains several threatened species. Despite successful cryopreservation of sperm from several marsupials, only 3% postthaw motility is reported for dasyurid marsupials. This study examined sperm preservation in the fat-tailed dunnart (Sminthopsis crassicaudata), an experimental model, with supplementary observations on the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). In S. crassicaudata, a toxicity trial demonstrated that incubation with up to 40% glycerol did not reduce sperm viability, suggesting that glycerol is not toxic to dasyurids. On the basis of this finding, S. crassicaudata, D. viverrinus, and D. hallucatus sperm were extended to a final concentration of 20% or 40% glycerol in Tris-citrate fructose and frozen in liquid nitrogen vapor. Postthaw sperm from all three species were nonmotile, and vital staining (SYBR14 and propidium iodide) indicated that sperm were nonviable. However, there was no evidence suggesting disruption of normal gross morphology or loss of acrosomal integrity when assessed by Bryan's staining. After freeze drying, Bryan's staining indicated that approximately 80% of S. crassicaudata sperm had normal acrosomes and no head loss. Despite being nonviable, terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase–mediated dUTP nick-end labeling showed that S. crassicaudata sperm frozen in 40% glycerol or freeze-dried had no DNA damage compared with fresh controls. This study has described a method for preservation of the dasyurid sperm nuclei, but continued studies are required to achieve viable motile sperm and establish tools for the long-term storage of dasyurid sperm.     

Foraging distribution overlap and marine reserve usage amongst sub-Antarctic predators inferred from a multi-species satellite tagging experiment

Satellite telemetry data was used to predict at sea spatial usage of five top order and meso-predators; Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus), king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus), black browed albatross (Diomedea melanophrys), and light mantled albatross (Phoebetria palpebrata). All were tagged at Heard Island in the Southern Ocean over a single summer season collecting over 5000 tracking days for 178 individuals. We aimed to predict areas of likely high foraging value from tracking environmental data and also to quantify overlap in foraging range between species. Hidden Markov models were used to differentiate between bouts of Area Restricted Search (ARS) assumed to be associated with areas of higher foraging value, and transit behaviours. Oceanographic and distance metrics associated with ARS activity were then used to calculate a habitat electivity index. A combined bootstrap/Monte Carlo scheme was employed to propagate uncertainty from the Hidden Markov models into the habitat prediction scheme. Distinct differences were predicted in the spatial distribution of foraging locations in different species, reflecting different dispersive abilities and foraging strategy. The extent of usage and foraging distribution was largely contained within Australian the Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ). In comparison, the smaller Australian Commonwealth Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) contained <20% of the predicted foraging distributions.     

Present and future distribution of three aquatic plants taxa across the world: decrease in native and increase in invasive ranges

Inland aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to both climate change and biological invasion at broad spatial scales. The aim of this study was to establish the current and future potential distribution of three invasive plant taxa, Egeria densa, Myriophyllum aquaticum and Ludwigia spp., in their native and exotic ranges. We used species distribution models (SDMs), with nine different algorithms and three global circulation models, and we restricted the suitability maps to cells containing aquatic ecosystems. The current bioclimatic range of the taxa was predicted to represent 6.6–12.3% of their suitable habitats at global scale, with a lot of variations between continents. In Europe and North America, their invasive ranges are predicted to increase up to two fold by 2070 with the highest gas emission scenario. Suitable new areas will mainly be located to the north of their current range. In other continents where they are exotic and in their native range (South America), the surface areas of suitable locations are predicted to decrease with climate change, especially for Ludwigia spp. in South America (down to ?55% by 2070 with RCP 8.5 scenario). This study allows to identify areas vulnerable to ongoing invasions by aquatic plant species and thus could help the prioritisation of monitoring and management, as well as contribute to the public awareness regarding biological invasions.     

Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change

Background

Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.