Improving conservation strategies of raptors through landscape ecology analysis: The case of the endemic Cuban Black Hawk

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Landscape structural analysis of the Lençóis Maranhenses national park: implications for conservation

Our work evaluated the anthropic effects on the landscape structure of the Lençóis Maranhenses National Park (LMNP) and its Buffer Zone, and proposed strategies for the region’s conservation. LMNP is an important protected area in Brazilian north coast which protects a unique wetland ecosystem composed of sand dunes fields and a coastal vegetation called restinga. Supervised mapping of LMNP and a surrounding buffer of 3 km was carried out through high resolution and fine scale (1:5000) satellite images. The mapped area was subdivided in 1000 ha hexagonal Analysis Units (AU) and the following landscape metrics were calculated for each one of them: cover area (CA) of each soil cover class - dune fields (CA-DUNES), water bodies (CA-WATER), dense restinga (CADENSE), scattered restinga (CA-SCATTER), grassland (CA-SANDY), mangroves (CA-MANG), anthropogenic activity (CA-ANTRO) and, secondary vegetation (CA-SECOND); Landscape Shannon Diversity Index (SHDI), and; percentage of native vegetation cover (NV−COV). Pearson correlations were performed between the CA of each class and SHDI to identify the classes most correlated to CA-ANTRO. Our results showed that anthropic classes (crops, trails, and villages) had a stronger correlation (Pearson Correlation, r ≈ 0.65) with phytophysiognomies of dense restinga, secondary vegetation and SHDI, thus indicating that the land use conversion occurs in dense restinga areas and promotes vegetation secondarization, as well as increasing fragmentation. At least, 42% of the dense restinga habitats was destroyed due to human activities. Five conservation and restoration strategies were proposed in a local scale depending on the percentage of native vegetation cover on each AU, from the most to less conserved: (a) only conservation; (b) conservation with management; (c) management; (d) management and restoration; and, (e) restoration. The implementation of Agroforestry Systems with agro-successional restoration goals was recommended as an alternative for land use.     

Ant community composition and its relationship with phytophysiognomies in a Brazilian Restinga

In this study, the composition of ant communities was compared in four adjacent phytophysiognomies in Morro dos Conventos Restinga, Brazil. We tested our hypothesis that the ant community composition differs between habitats across a gradient from sea to inland continent. Ant species were sampled with pitfall traps. Overall, 71 ant species were collected. Ant species composition differed between phytophysiognomies. Our results suggest that environments were more similar in the adjacent than in the more distant phytophysiognomies, a pattern similar to the vegetation zonation and gradient sea–inland Restinga. Thirteen species determined more than 50% of the dissimilarity between phytophysiognomies. Solenopsis saevissima was the species that contributed more to ant species composition distinction between phytophysiognomies, followed by Pheidole and Camponotus species. The type of vegetation is one of the main factors affecting the composition of ant communities in Restinga. The role of plants is linked to the availability of resources and conditions and they may determine ant assemblage composition and different interactions occurring in Restinga.     

The Efficacy of Landscape-Level Conservation in Changbai Mountain Biosphere Reserve,China

Anthropogenic landscape alteration is rather common in many protected areas (PAs), jeopardizing the efficacy of PAs conservation. However, the general consensus is that PAs still remain effective in habitat conservation. To assess the efficacy of landscape-level conservation, we examined landscape alterations in the Changbai Mountain Biosphere Reserve (CMBR), which was established in 1960 as a “flagship” protected area in China. Based on analyses of high-resolution satellite images and data of forest inventory, field survey and interview, we developed two new indexes to assess the efficacy of landscape conservation, i.e. the quality index of protected landscape and the interference index of anthropogenic landscape. From 1993 to 2012, the quality index increased from 74.48 to 75.50, and the interference index decreased from 0.49 to 0.06, suggesting that the overall quality of protected landscape improved and the degree of anthropogenic interference decreased in CMBR. The increase in landscape quality was mainly due to the progressive vegetation recovery of previous cutover land in the windthrow area, the cease of the use of the cultivated land, and the amelioration of spatial pattern of protected landscape. We conclude that the current landscape conservation methods used in CMBR are effective, and the method we developed has the potential to be used to assess the efficacy of landscape-level conservation in nature reserves worldwide.     

A comparison of Australia’s anuran records against the reserve system

We compared the location of anuran site records with the protected area network of Australia. We determined how many sites fell within protected areas (PAs) and assessed whether the available distribution of record sites matched that which could be expected by random chance. We also determined the number of PAs that each species was located in and how many were larger (>1,000 ha) PAs. A total of 25,961 from 96,947 record sites (26.78%) for 211 anuran species fell within 1 of 7,416 International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria “reserves” that protect 7,689,024 ha (10.54%) of mainland Australia. One hundred and sixty-nine species represented by >30 records had a mean 30.05% of record sites within PAs, with 36 species having >45% of record sites in PAs and 18 species <10% of record sites within PAs. Highly “reserved” species are typically montane, prefer rainforest, and have small distributional ranges. Poorly “reserved” species either occur in northern Australia or within highly productive and poorly protected agricultural lands of eastern and western Australia. Several species from coastal eastern Australia have relatively high proportions of record sites within PAs (e.g., Litoria olongburensis and Uperoleia tyleri), even though they are generally believed to be threatened by habitat loss. The number of records available for each species was related to the area of occupancy and the length of calling season, but not to the relative frequency of calling activity. The number of record sites in reserves was greater than expected by chance and most species of frogs are found in many reserves. Species dependent on native vegetation that are prevalent in agricultural areas represent the most pressing issue, as there is already low reservation of such habitats and the remaining native vegetation continues to be cleared.     

Multi-criteria spatial identification of carnivore conservation areas under data scarcity and conflict: a jaguar case study in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta,Colombia

Human–wildlife conflict, habitat loss, and prey hunting are the main threats to carnivore species worldwide. Forest conversion as consequence of deforestation and agricultural expansion increases the proximity between carnivores and humans, thereby escalating conflicts. Knowledge about carnivore species in data-poor countries, such as Colombia, is scarce which has the potential to result in poor landscape planning decisions. For many species, the only existing spatial information resides in expert-driven approaches which result in coarse-resolution ‘extent-of-occurrence’ maps. There is an increasing need for the development of methodologies to identify conservation and management areas at appropriate scales. Multi-criteria approaches will allow the inclusion of diverse species attributes enabling environmental institutions to address complex landscape decisions that result in conservation and management of carnivore habitat. We present a multi-criteria spatial identification tool for conservation and management areas, focused on Jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, in northern Colombia. Our approach identifies areas based on the relationship between three spatial criteria: (1) suitable habitat patches, (2) habitat connectivity, and (3) zones of higher likelihood of human–jaguar conflict. We identified areas with the presence of at least one spatial criteria in 32% of the study area. Only 16.28% of these occur within protected areas (PAs) and the remaining fall on private lands (83.72%), either within (35.68%) or outside (48.04%) buffer zones of PAs. Our results highlight the need for multi-stakeholder collaborative approaches given that most proposed conservation areas fall on private rather than public lands.     

Gap analysis comparing protected areas with potential natural vegetation in Tuscany (Italy) and a GIS procedure to bridge the gaps

The aim was to compare the protected area (PA) network in Tuscany, Italy, with the areas referenced to different types of potential natural vegetation (PNV), to determine whether they are adequately represented for plant and habitat conservation purposes. For PNV, an existing but slightly updated and modified Italian Vegetation Series (VS) map was used. Each VS type corresponds to vegetation complexes that live under homogeneous environmental conditions and can each be considered an ecological land unit at the working scale employed here. Using GIS techniques, the geographic layers of PAs and VS were processed with spatial intersection to extract and quantify the VS contained within the boundaries of PAs. As a minimum conservation goal, we used the widely accepted 10% target threshold. It was found that, even though Tuscan PAs covered almost 20% of the total land surface, 94% of VS types resulted to be included in PAs with a percentage of at least 10% of their total area. The survey shows that the VS with the higher degree of inclusion in PAs are distributed in the Mediterranean Tuscany (coast and Tuscan Archipelago) and in some inner areas such as Apuan region, northern Apennines, Amiata Mt. and Farma-Merse Valley. Two VS types must be considered under-protected (i.e. contained in an existing PA network with percentages < 10%). We propose a simple GIS procedure based on certain priority assumptions: (a) existing PAs should be enlarged rather than new ones created and (b) their naturalness taken into account. This procedure produces a suitability map useful for identifying the best areas in which a local administration might look for solutions to bridge the gaps.     

Policy indicators for use in impact evaluations of protected area networks

The number of protected areas (PAs) has steadily increased in the past 20 years, but their effectiveness to meet conservation targets is consistently questioned. Most conservation impact evaluations of protected areas assume that formal designations, like that of IUCN categories, reflect site-specific conservation rules, but this is not always true. In this paper we illustrate how conservation rules could be empirically assessed by use of content analysis combined with optimal scaling. This flexible methodology allows us to quantitatively assess strictness levels for use in conservation impact evaluations. The strictness measures could also indicate whether conservation rules are consistently applied in the different IUCN categories thereby providing guidance for future assignment of PAs to the IUCN protected area management categories. We illustrate how policy indicators based on conservation rules could be developed in two contrasting mountain protected area networks in Norway and in British Columbia (BC), including a total of 48 PAs in Norway and 51 in BC. Conservation rules for recreational use, motorized access and resource use were quantitatively assessed, thus providing a measure of how strictly PAs regulate the different human activities. Our results show that the main differences in strictness are between the two countries, followed by the contrast between national parks and provincial parks in BC. Overall, Norway has a more liberal conservation policy than BC and older national parks in BC have a much stricter conservation policy than most of the other PAs in this study. Overarching conservation objectives did not reflect the level of strictness (the conservation rules) that guide the daily management of individual PAs. This applies to both countries. We recommend to empirically investigate site-specific conservation rules to include de facto management of human activities in conservation policy impact evaluations. The methodology is also useful for monitoring downgrading of the protected area status, which is a result of authorizing human activities that are not consistent with conservation objectives.     

Evolutionarily significant units of the critically endangered leaf frog Pithecopus ayeaye (Anura,Phyllomedusidae) are not effectively preserved by the Brazilian protected areas network

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation, but their coverage is considered inefficient for the preservation of all species. Many species are subdivided into evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) and the effectiveness of PAs in protecting them needs to be investigated. We evaluated the usefulness of the Brazilian PAs network in protecting ESUs of the critically endangered Pithecopus ayeaye through ongoing climate change. This species occurs in a threatened mountaintop ecosystem known as campos rupestres. We used multilocus DNA sequences to delimit geographic clusters, which were further validated as ESUs with a coalescent approach. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate spatial changes in ESUs’ potential distributions, and a gap analysis was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the Brazilian PAs network to protect P. ayeaye in the face of climate changes. We tested the niche overlap between ESUs to gain insights for potential management alternatives for the species. Pithecopus ayeaye contains at least three ESUs isolated in distinct mountain regions, and one of them is not protected by any PA. There are no climatic niche differences between the units, and only 4% of the suitable potential area of the species is protected in present and future projections. The current PAs are not effective in preserving the intraspecific diversity of P. ayeaye in its present and future range distributions. The genetic structure of P. ayeaye could represent a typical pattern in campos rupestres endemics, which should be considered for evaluating its conservation status.     

Floristic and functional identity of rupestrian grasslands as a subsidy for environmental restoration and policy

The unique vegetation of rupestrian grassland (Campo Rupestre) is finely tuned to the strong environmental and edaphoclimatic filters that resulted in important adaptations and high levels of endemism. In this study, we intend to give another focus to the understanding of the identity of the rupestrian grasslands by observing their floristic relationships with other surrounding vegetation types and to present for the first time a functional approach and zeta similarity to try to understand the differences and similarities of this ecosystem with other adjacent ones. We have compiled 1790 plant species in 7 vegetation types. Based on the species composition, we can infer that the most similar vegetation types were Tepuis and Altitudinal Grasslands, and this group is closer to Inselbergs. Subsequently, the most similar were Ironstone Grasslands and the Atlantic Forest grouped with Quartzite Grasslands. Finally, Cerrado was the lesser similar. But, these groupings are modified when analyzed at genus or family level. Considering the zeta diversity decline at the species level, the vegetation types showed an almost complete turnover in species assemblage, sharing only a small suite of species between them. This pattern is similar at the genus level, but the number of genera shared across vegetation types is comparatively higher. On the other hand, at the family level, there is a common core of families shared between vegetation types. When we evaluated the similarity considering functional attributes we found differences in composition regarding growth and life forms. However, in this case, Quartzitic and Ironstone Rupestrian Grasslands showed very similar functional attributes. They are inhabited by plant species with shrub, epiphytic, parasitic and succulent forms with rupicolous growth form. In general, the quartzitic grasslands have singular vegetation, but its affinity with other vegetation types does not translate in any way the most relevant aspects associated with endemism and biodiversity. The true landscape identity to a certain ecosystem is given by functional characteristics.     

Priority areas for conservation of primates in a threatened Amazonian savanna

Primates are globally recognized as an important component of biodiversity, however, more than half of primate species in the world are threatened and agriculture expansion is one of the main threats. Brazil has one of the largest networks of protected areas (PAs) in the world, but there are some conservation gaps, such as the Amazonian savannas. We aim to identify a network of priority areas to conserve a Brazilian Amazonian savanna highly threatened by agriculture expansion, by using seven primate species and four vegetation types as targets. We constructed species distribution models (SDMs) for the primates and used a Systematic Conservation Planning approach. We defined as a quantitative conservation target the proportion of the distribution of each primate species within the network according to traits related to their vulnerability to extinction. In addition, we set a target of including at least 30% of each savanna type within priority areas. We created a map of potential use of the land for agriculture and another of environmental risk, which were included as costs in the decision process, and together with the SDMs and vegetation types, identified the network of priority areas by using the software Marxan. We evaluated the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as establishing Conservation Units (e.g. reserves managed by the government), or implementing community-based conservation actions in each priority area. Additionally, we estimated the economic investment (US$/year) required to establish Conservation Units across the priority areas. Conservation targets for primates and vegetation types were met by protecting 3,240 km² of the Savannas of Amapá. An investment of approximately US$958,122/year over five years is required to turn these priority areas into Conservation Units, however, we propose other strategies such as conservation on community lands and public policies. All these strategies would allow for protecting forest cover and the heterogeneous environments that are suitable for primates and other biodiversity components.     

Assessing the vulnerability trifecta: species,climate, and anthropogenic pressures on protected areas of the Central Indian Highlands

Efficient management of protected areas (PAs) is important to ensure conservation and long-term sustenance of threatened species. It is therefore essential to understand the vulnerability of PAs in a multi-pronged approach by considering the cumulative effects of species, climatic, and anthropogenic attributes. We assessed the overall vulnerability of PAs in the Central Indian Highlands (CIH), which is a landscape of high biodiversity value. Over 81% of PAs experienced medium to high vulnerability due to anthropogenic pressures, and 68.75% of PAs faced medium to high vulnerability due to climate change and conservation status of species within the PA. Our categorization of PAs revealed that 50% of PAs were vulnerable to all 3 attributes. Further, there was a strong correlation between species and anthropogenic vulnerability indices in the PAs of the CIH landscape. Our results may help local policy makers in prioritizing the optimal and cost-effective conservation management of existing PAs, which can be extended for cost-effectiveness and efficient resource allocation of PAs, through this multipronged approach, beyond the CIH landscape.     

Linking beta diversity patterns to protected areas: lessons from the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest

Understanding the processes that drive patterns of beta diversity is crucial for planning conservation policies and for designing networks of protected area (PAs). Beta diversity can be decomposed into two components: 1—species turnover, the replacement of species by others resulting in a low proportion of shared species; 2—species nestedness—the result of differences in species richness, when a poorer community is a subset of species from a richer community. We aimed to evaluate beta diversity patterns and how they are represented in the network of PAs in southern Brazilian, regarding three forest types: Atlantic Forest s.s., Araucaria Forest, and Seasonal Forest. Beta diversity was partitioned into the turnover and nestedness components. Additionally, we examined spatial patterns of site similarity using distance decay curves. Beta diversity was mainly caused by species turnover (approx. 86%), with only a small contribution of nestedness (approx. 5%) in all three forests types. The patterns of distance decay curves revealed that even at small distances (50–100 km), we found a considerable decrease in similarities, reinforcing turnover patterns. As turnover brought the larger contribution to beta diversity, additional conservation efforts must target an increase in the number of PAs, that should be spread across each one of the regions, to maximize the protection of species diversity. Most of the PAs are currently limited to the eastern region and prioritize the Atlantic Forest s.s. Thus Araucaria Forest and Seasonal Forest should deserve special priority in new conservation actions, as they also contain high levels of species turnover.     

The Effects of Governmental Protected Areas and Social Initiatives for Land Protection on the Conservation of Mexican Amphibians

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs.     

Role of African protected areas in maintaining connectivity for large mammals

The African protected area (PA) network has the potential to act as a set of functionally interconnected patches that conserve meta-populations of mammal species, but individual PAs are vulnerable to habitat change which may disrupt connectivity and increase extinction risk. Individual PAs have different roles in maintaining connectivity, depending on their size and location. We measured their contribution to network connectivity (irreplaceability) for carnivores and ungulates and combined it with a measure of vulnerability based on a 30-year trend in remotely sensed vegetation cover (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Highly irreplaceable PAs occurred mainly in southern and eastern Africa. Vegetation cover change was generally faster outside than inside PAs and particularly so in southern Africa. The extent of change increased with the distance from PAs. About 5% of highly irreplaceable PAs experienced a faster vegetation cover loss than their surroundings, thus requiring particular conservation attention. Our analysis identified PAs at risk whose isolation would disrupt the connectivity of the PA network for large mammals. This is an example of how ecological spatial modelling can be combined with large-scale remote sensing data to investigate how land cover change may affect ecological processes and species conservation.     

Densities and population sizes of raptors in Uganda’s conservation areas

Projected increases in Africa's human population over the next 40 years point to further, large-scale conversion of natural habitats into farmland, with far-reaching consequences for raptor species, some of which are now largely restricted to protected areas (PAs). To assess the importance of PAs for raptors in Uganda, we conducted an annual road survey through savanna, pastoral and agricultural land during 2008–2015. Here, we present density estimates for 34 diurnal raptor species, 17 of which were encountered largely or entirely within PAs. These included seven out of eight globally threatened or near-threatened species surveyed. Based mainly on published demographic values, we converted density estimates (birds 100 km?2) to numbers of adult pairs, for 10 resident, savanna-dependent species. We then estimated adult population sizes within conservation areas (individual PAs and clusters of contiguous PAs), based on the area of savanna in each site. This suggested that two threatened residents, Martial Eagle Polemaetus bellicosus and Lappet-faced Vulture Torgos tracheliotos, have national breeding populations of just 53–75 and 74–105 pairs, respectively. A third species, White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis, may have a breeding population of just 22–32 pairs. In each case, at least 90% of pairs are thought to reside within Uganda's five largest conservation areas. In three cases our estimates of pair density were markedly lower than in other studies, while in six cases they were broadly consistent with published findings, often derived using more intensive survey methods. Further work is required to determine the accuracy of our estimates for individual conservation areas, and to assess the long-term viability of Uganda's threatened raptor populations.     

Mammal indicator species for protected areas and managed forests in a landscape conservation area of northern India

There is a realization that managed forests and other natural areas in the landscape matrix can and must make significant contributions to biodiversity conservation. Often, however, there are no consistent baseline vegetation or wildlife data for assessing the status of biodiversity elements across protected and managed areas for conservation planning, nor is there a rapid and efficient means to acquire those data. We used a unified vegetation classification and simple animal sampling design to describe the patterns of abundance of selected mammals as indicator, or characteristic, species in different vegetation types and protected areas vs. managed forest units in the Terai Conservation Area (TCA) in northern Uttar Pradesh state, India. We quantified the relative abundance of 15 mammals of conservation concern from dung counts in vegetation sampling plots within 122 sample patches in 13 vegetation types and 4 management units. Assemblages of species differed both among vegetation types and among management units. Species assemblages in the two protected areas differed strongly from those in two managed forests. Grasslands in protected areas were the most species diverse among vegetation types and had several indicator species. Protected forests were dominated by chital (Axis axis) and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus) in a second species group. A third species group in open grasslands and savannas in managed forests was characterized by cattle (Bos taurus) and Indian hare (Lepus nigricollis). Protected areas clearly are the core conservation area of the TCA for their relatively high habitat value and species diversity, and their protected status minimizes human disturbance. Impacts of human use are high in managed forests, indicating their compromised value for biodiversity conservation. Our simple assessment methodology gives managers a simple way to assess the status of important mammals across landscape conservation units.     

The financial needs vs. the realities of in situ conservation: an analysis of federal funding for protected areas in Brazil's Caatinga

In situ conservation is an effective strategy to protect biodiversity, and Brazil has one of the largest protected area (PA) systems in the world. However, the distribution of Brazilian PAs is uneven and the Caatinga drylands are poorly protected. As financial resources are essential for effectively managing PAs, we analyzed the Brazilian Government's budget allocated to 20 federal PAs in the Caatinga between 2008 and 2014, which ranged from 231,575 USD in 2008 to 13.5 Mi USD in 2011. Neither expenses, nor the availability of funds, were homogeneous among PAs or throughout the years. Land acquisition in a single PA consumed ~75% of the budget, and the two smallest PAs received proportionally the most money. Excluding land acquisition, the 20 PAs received 0.50 USD/ha/year. Funds were allocated not to biodiversity conservation per se but mainly to securing offices, cars, and equipment. From 2012 onwards, the PA budget was reduced. Even including salaries, the budget allocated for these PAs is ~13 times lower than what the Ministry of the Environment declared necessary for the basic operation of protected areas in Brazil, 1.5 times lower than values spent worldwide, up to 5 times lower than spent in Latin American and African parks, and up to 72 times lower than spent in the European Union, exposing one cause of the precarious situation of the Caatinga PAs.     

Future land use effects on the connectivity of protected area networks in southeastern Spain

Land-use change is a major driver of the global biodiversity crisis, mainly via the fragmentation and loss of natural habitat. Although land-use changes will accelerate to meet humankind's growing demand for agricultural products, conservation planning rarely considers future land uses and how they may affect the connectivity of ecological networks. Here, we integrate land-use models with landscape fragmentation and connectivity analyses, to assess the effects of past and future land-use changes on the connectivity of protected area networks for a highly dynamic region in southeast Spain. Our results show a continued geographical polarisation of land use, with agricultural intensification and urban development in the coastal areas, and the abandonment of traditional land use in the mountains (e.g., 1100 km² of natural vegetation are projected to be lost in coastal areas whereas 32 km² of natural vegetation would recover in interior areas from 1991 to 2015). As a result, coastal protected areas will experience increasing isolation. The connectivity analyses reveal that the two protected area networks in place in the study area, the European “Natura 2000” and the Andalusian “RENPA” networks, include many landscape connectors. However, we identify two areas that currently lack protection but contain several important patches for maintaining the region's habitat connectivity: the northwestern and the southwestern slopes of the Sierra Cabrera and Bédar protected area. Our results highlight the importance of considering future land-use trajectories in conservation planning to maintain connectivity at the regional scale, and to improve the resilience of conservation networks.