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1.
The Amazon and Atlantic Forest are considered the world's most biodiverse biomes. Human and climate change impacts are the principal drivers of species loss in both biomes, more severely in the Atlantic Forest. In response to species loss, the main conservation action is the creation of protected areas (PAs). Current knowledge and research on the PA network's conservation efficiency is scarce, and existing studies have mainly considered a past temporal view. In this study, we tested the efficiency of the current PA network to maintain climatically stable areas (CSAs) across the Amazon and Atlantic Forest. To this, we used an ecological niche modeling approach to biome and paleoclimatic simulations. We propose three categories of conservation priority areas for both biomes, considering CSAs, PAs and intact forest remnants. The biomes vary in their respective PA networks' protection efficiency. Regarding protect CSAs, the Amazon PA network is four times more efficient than the Atlantic Forest PA network. New conservation efforts in these two forest biomes require different approaches. We discussed the conservation actions that should be taken in each biome to increase the efficiency of the PA network, considering both the creation and expansion of PAs as well as restoration programs.  相似文献   

2.
The role of past connections between the two major South American forested biomes on current species distribution has been recognized a long time ago. Climatic oscillations that further separated these biomes have promoted parapatric speciation, in which many species had their continuous distribution split, giving rise to different but related species (i.e., different potential distributions and realized niche features). The distribution of many sister species of orchid bees follow this pattern. Here, using ecological niche models and niche analyses, we (1) tested the role of ecological niche differentiation on the divergence between sister orchid-bees (genera Eulaema and Eufriesea) from the Amazon and Atlantic forests, and (2) highlighted interesting areas for new surveys. Amazonian species occupied different realized niches than their Atlantic sister species. Conversely, species of sympatric but distantly related Eulaema bees occupied similar realized niches. Amazonian species had a wide potential distribution in South America, whereas Atlantic Forest species were more limited to the eastern coast of the continent. Additionally, we identified several areas in need of future surveys. Our results show that the realized niche of Atlantic-Amazonian sister species of orchid bees, which have been previously treated as allopatric populations of three species, had limited niche overlap and similarity. These findings agree with their current taxonomy, which treats each of those populations as distinct valid species.  相似文献   

3.
Predicting the probability of successful establishment of plant species by matching climatic variables has considerable potential for incorporation in early warning systems for the management of biological invasions. We select South Africa as a model source area of invasions worldwide because it is an important exporter of plant species to other parts of the world because of the huge international demand for indigenous flora from this biodiversity hotspot. We first mapped the five ecoregions that occur both in South Africa and other parts of the world, but the very coarse definition of the ecoregions led to unreliable results in terms of predicting invasible areas. We then determined the bioclimatic features of South Africa's major terrestrial biomes and projected the potential distribution of analogous areas throughout the world. This approach is much more powerful, but depends strongly on how particular biomes are defined in donor countries. Finally, we developed bioclimatic niche models for 96 plant taxa (species and subspecies) endemic to South Africa and invasive elsewhere, and projected these globally after successfully evaluating model projections specifically for three well‐known invasive species (Carpobrotus edulis, Senecio glastifolius, Vellereophyton dealbatum) in different target areas. Cumulative probabilities of climatic suitability show that high‐risk regions are spatially limited globally but that these closely match hotspots of plant biodiversity. These probabilities are significantly correlated with the number of recorded invasive species from South Africa in natural areas, emphasizing the pivotal role of climate in defining invasion potential. Accounting for potential transfer vectors (trade and tourism) significantly adds to the explanatory power of climate suitability as an index of invasibility. The close match that we found between the climatic component of the ecological habitat suitability and the current pattern of occurrence of South Africa alien species in other parts of the world is encouraging. If species' distribution data in the donor country are available, climatic niche modelling offers a powerful tool for efficient and unbiased first‐step screening. Given that eradication of an established invasive species is extremely difficult and expensive, areas identified as potential new sites should be monitored and quarantine measures should be adopted.  相似文献   

4.
The main goal of this study was to predict, through the use of GIS tool as ecological niche modelling, potentially suitable ecological niche and defining the conditions of such niche for the representatives of the cosmopolitan genus Sirthenea. Among all known genera of the subfamily Peiratinae, only Sirthenea occurs on almost all continents and zoogeographical regions. Our research was based on 521 unique occurrence localities and a set of environmental variables covering the whole world. Based on occurrence localities, as well as climatic variables, digital elevation model, terrestrial ecoregions and biomes, information about the ecological preferences is given. Potentially useful ecological niches were modelled using Maxent software, which allowed for the creation of a map of the potential distribution and for determining climatic preferences. An analysis of climatic preferences suggested that the representatives of the genus were linked mainly to the tropical and temperate climates. An analysis of ecoregions also showed that they preferred areas with tree vegetation like tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests biomes as well as temperate broadleaf and mixed forest biomes. Therefore, on the basis of the museum data on the species occurrence and ecological niche modelling method, we provided new and valuable information on the potentially suitable habitat and the possible range of distribution of the genus Sirthenea along with its climatic preferences.  相似文献   

5.
With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.  相似文献   

6.
Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs.  相似文献   

7.
Climate change is predicted to affect the distribution of freshwater taxa, and stronger impacts are expected on endemic species. However, the effects of future climates on freshwater insects from the Neotropical region have been generally overlooked. In this study, the distribution of a damselfly (Cyanallagma bonariense, Odonata, Coenagrionidae) endemic to the subtropical South American grasslands (Pampa) was modelled in relation to future scenarios of high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. For this purpose, ecological niche models were developed based on assumptions of limited dispersal and niche conservatism, and the projected distribution of C. bonariense was contrasted with the location of current protected areas (PAs) in the Pampa. A broad potential distribution of C. bonariense was indicated throughout the Pampa, and projections predicted a predominance of range contractions rather than range shifts in climatically suitable areas for C. bonariense in 2050 and 2070. Projections of suitable areas overlapped in central Argentina and southernmost Uruguay in these periods. Our results indicated a potential resilience of C. bonariense to future climate change, which is likely related to the low restrictions in habitat use of C. bonariense. In every projection, however, most PAs were expected to lose effectiveness, as by 2070 most PAs fall outside the range of the predicted distribution of C. bonariense. Thus, the creation or enlargement of PAs in these areas is recommended and these results represent an important information for the conservation of endemic freshwater insects under global warming scenarios in an overlooked Neotropical landscape.  相似文献   

8.
Terrestrial protected areas (PAs) are cornerstones of global biodiversity conservation. Their efficacy in terms of maintaining biodiversity is, however, much debated. Studies to date have been unable to provide a general answer as to PA conservation efficacy because of their typically restricted geographic and/or taxonomic focus, or qualitative approaches focusing on proxies for biodiversity, such as deforestation. Given the rarity of historical data to enable comparisons of biodiversity before/after PA establishment, many smaller scale studies over the past 30 years have directly compared biodiversity inside PAs to that of surrounding areas, which provides one measure of PA ecological performance. Here we use a meta-analysis of such studies (N = 86) to test if PAs contain higher biodiversity values than surrounding areas, and so assess their contribution to determining PA efficacy. We find that PAs generally have higher abundances of individual species, higher assemblage abundances, and higher species richness values compared with alternative land uses. Local scale studies in combination thus show that PAs retain more biodiversity than alternative land use areas. Nonetheless, much variation is present in the effect sizes, which underscores the context-specificity of PA efficacy.  相似文献   

9.
The African protected area (PA) network has the potential to act as a set of functionally interconnected patches that conserve meta-populations of mammal species, but individual PAs are vulnerable to habitat change which may disrupt connectivity and increase extinction risk. Individual PAs have different roles in maintaining connectivity, depending on their size and location. We measured their contribution to network connectivity (irreplaceability) for carnivores and ungulates and combined it with a measure of vulnerability based on a 30-year trend in remotely sensed vegetation cover (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Highly irreplaceable PAs occurred mainly in southern and eastern Africa. Vegetation cover change was generally faster outside than inside PAs and particularly so in southern Africa. The extent of change increased with the distance from PAs. About 5% of highly irreplaceable PAs experienced a faster vegetation cover loss than their surroundings, thus requiring particular conservation attention. Our analysis identified PAs at risk whose isolation would disrupt the connectivity of the PA network for large mammals. This is an example of how ecological spatial modelling can be combined with large-scale remote sensing data to investigate how land cover change may affect ecological processes and species conservation.  相似文献   

10.
Onditi  Kenneth Otieno  Li  Xueyou  Song  Wenyu  Li  Quan  Musila  Simon  Mathenge  James  Kioko  Esther  Jiang  Xuelong 《Biodiversity and Conservation》2021,30(13):3813-3836

Merely designating new and/or expanding existing protected areas (PAs) does not guarantee the protection of critical ecosystems and species. The management of PAs must be effective to sustain meaningful conservational outcomes. We inferred the management effectiveness of PAs in Kenya based on the representation of ranges and distribution of multiple diversity dimensions of terrestrial mammals and their association with governance and designation types. We hypothesized that different governance types underlie variable management efficacies, such that stricter-managed PAs have better habitats that attract more wildlife, translating to higher species diversity compared to less strictly-managed PAs, especially for focal species groups (large carnivores, large herbivores, and endangered species). The results showed nearly all terrestrial mammals in Kenya represented in at least one PA. However, the relative proportion of represented ranges were low, and analysis of spatial conservation prioritization showed significant expansion beyond current PAs needed to achieve a one third coverage of focal species’ ranges in a best-solution reserve system. Differences in PA governance and designation types were not systematically associated with diversity variances, and while there were more unique species in state-managed PAs than in privately-managed ones, averaged diversity coefficients were comparable between categories. Diversity variances explained by PA size and status year were low in a combined species pool but increased in focal species groups. These findings suggest that success in terrestrial mammal conservation in PAs in Kenya require clearly and formally streamlined definition, performance feedback, and collaboration terms between state-managed and privately-managed PAs.

  相似文献   

11.
Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of conservation efforts and now cover nearly 13% of the world's land surface, with the world's governments committed to expand this to 17%. However, as biodiversity continues to decline, the effectiveness of PAs in reducing the extinction risk of species remains largely untested. We analyzed PA coverage and trends in species' extinction risk at globally significant sites for conserving birds (10,993 Important Bird Areas, IBAs) and highly threatened vertebrates and conifers (588 Alliance for Zero Extinction sites, AZEs) (referred to collectively hereafter as 'important sites'). Species occurring in important sites with greater PA coverage experienced smaller increases in extinction risk over recent decades: the increase was half as large for bird species with>50% of the IBAs at which they occur completely covered by PAs, and a third lower for birds, mammals and amphibians restricted to protected AZEs (compared with unprotected or partially protected sites). Globally, half of the important sites for biodiversity conservation remain unprotected (49% of IBAs, 51% of AZEs). While PA coverage of important sites has increased over time, the proportion of PA area covering important sites, as opposed to less important land, has declined (by 0.45-1.14% annually since 1950 for IBAs and 0.79-1.49% annually for AZEs). Thus, while appropriately located PAs may slow the rate at which species are driven towards extinction, recent PA network expansion has under-represented important sites. We conclude that better targeted expansion of PA networks would help to improve biodiversity trends.  相似文献   

12.
Only 7 % of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot is currently protected, though it holds 18 % of all amphibian species in South America. How effective would the Atlantic Forest network of protected areas (PAs) be in a changing climate? Are there some intrinsic features of PAs that drive species loss or gain inside them? We addressed these questions by modeling the ecological niches of 430 amphibian species in the Atlantic Forest and projecting their distributions into three future climate change simulations. We then assessed changes in species richness inside PAs for different time frames and tested their significance via null model. The number of species should decline within Atlantic Forest network of PAs under changing climate conditions. Only altitude was a good predictor of species gains or lost inside PAs. Therefore, we suggest that new PAs established in highlands would be more effective to alleviate the effects of climate change on this imperiled fauna.  相似文献   

13.
Methods derived from ecological niche modeling allow to define species distribution based on presence-only data. This is particularly useful to develop models from literature records such as available for the Anopheles dirus complex, a major group of malaria mosquito vectors in Asia. This research defines an innovative modeling design based on presence-only model and hierarchical framework to define the distribution of the complex and attempt to delineate sibling species distribution and environmental preferences. At coarse resolution, the potential distribution was defined using slow changing abiotic factors such as topography and climate representative for the timescale covered by literature records of the species. The distribution area was then refined in a second step using a mask of current suitable land cover. Distribution area and ecological niche were compared between species and environmental factors tested for relevance. Alternatively, extreme values at occurrence points were used to delimit environmental envelopes. The spatial distribution for the complex was broadly consistent with its known distribution and influencing factors included temperature and rainfall. If maps developed from environmental envelopes gave similar results to modeling when the number of sites was high, the results were less similar for species with low number of recorded presences. Using presence-only models and hierarchical framework this study not only predicts the distribution of a major malaria vector, but also improved ecological modeling analysis design and proposed final products better adapted to malaria control decision makers. The resulting maps can help prioritizing areas which need further investigation and help simulate distribution under changing conditions such as climate change or reforestation. The hierarchical framework results in two products one abiotic based model describes the potential maximal distribution and remains valid for decades and the other including a biotic mask easy to update with frequently available information gives current species distribution.  相似文献   

14.
Climate change is not only a major threat to biodiversity, it is also a big challenge to the development of conservation strategies. Scientists and practitioners need to select or avoid areas at greatest risk for species protection, i.e., acting in a proactive or a reactive manner. This proactive/reactive dichotomy takes a particular formulation under the likely changes in climate. Selecting for low-risk areas (usually referred to as climate refugia) is supposed to protect more species with a greater guarantee of their long-term persistence. As a consequence, populations at greatest risk are left unprotected and probably committed to extinction. On the other hand, managing species in high-risk areas is more expensive than setting aside areas of climate refugia and encompasses a set of uncertainties, which makes highly-threatened species more costly and difficult to save. Here, we combine ecological niche models and metrics of climate change to develop spatial conservation schemes for mammals in the Brazilian Amazon. These schemes efficiently identify networks of high-risk and refugia priority areas within species current and future distributions, while complementing the protection already achieved by the Amazon’s network of protected areas (PAs). We found that, on average, 25% of mammal distribution is already represented in the established network of PAs. Also, 26% of high-risk and 17% of refugia priority areas overlap with indigenous lands. In addition, species distributions were found mostly in high-risk, compared to in refugia priority areas. We highlight that the strategy to be employed does not necessarily should be binary and a mix of both strategies would guarantee the protection of a larger number of species.  相似文献   

15.
Climate change will lead to substantial shifts in species distributions. Most of the predictions of shifting distributions rely on modelling future distributions with ecological niche models. We used these models to investigate (i) the expected species turnover, loss and gain within bird communities of four South African biomes and (ii) the expected changes in the body mass frequency distributions of these communities. We used distributional data of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, current climate data and two scenarios of future climate change for 2050 to build ensemble models of bird distributions. Our results indicate that future species loss, gain and turnover within the four biomes will be considerable. Climate change will also have statistically significant effects on body mass frequency distributions, and these effects differ substantially depending on the severity of future climate change. We discuss the possible ecological effects of these predicted changes on ecosystem interactions and functions.  相似文献   

16.
Since obligate avian brood parasites depend completely on the effort of other host species for rearing their progeny, the availability of hosts will be a critical resource for their life history. Circumstantial evidence suggests that intense competition for host species may exist not only within but also between species. So far, however, few studies have demonstrated whether the interspecific competition really occurs in the system of avian brood parasitism and how the nature of brood parasitism is related to their niche evolution. Using the occurrence data of five avian brood parasites from two sources of nationwide bird surveys in South Korea and publically available environmental/climatic data, we identified their distribution patterns and ecological niches, and applied species distribution modeling to infer the effect of interspecific competition on their spatial distribution. We found that the distribution patterns of five avian brood parasites could be characterized by altitude and climatic conditions, but overall their spatial ranges and ecological niches extensively overlapped with each other. We also found that the predicted distribution areas of each species were generally comparable to the realized distribution areas, and the numbers of individuals in areas where multiple species were predicted to coexist showed positive relationships among species. In conclusion, despite following different coevolutionary trajectories to adapt to their respect host species, five species of avian brood parasites breeding in South Korea occupied broadly similar ecological niches, implying that they tend to conserve ancestral preferences for ecological conditions. Furthermore, our results indicated that contrary to expectation interspecific competition for host availability between avian brood parasites seemed to be trivial, and thus, play little role in shaping their spatial distributions and ecological niches. Future studies, including the complete ranges of avian brood parasites and ecological niches of host species, will be worthwhile to further elucidate these issues.  相似文献   

17.
Aim  In response to a recent paper suggesting the failure of ecological niche models to predict between native and introduced distributional areas of fire ants ( Solenopsis invicta ), we sought to assess methodological causes of this failure.
Location  Ecological niche models were developed on the species' native distributional area in South America, and projected globally.
Methods  We developed ecological niche models based on six different environmental data sets, and compared their respective abilities to anticipate the North American invasive distributional area of the species.
Results  We show that models based on the 'bioclimatic variables' of the WorldClim data set indeed fail to predict the full invasive potential of the species, but that models based on four other data sets could predict this potential correctly.
Main conclusions  The difference in predictive abilities appears to centre on the complexity of the environmental variables involved. These results emphasize important influences of environmental data sets on the generality and ability of ecological niche models to anticipate novel phenomena, and offer a simpler explanation for the lack of predictive ability among native and invaded distributional areas than that of niche shifts.  相似文献   

18.
Chad is amongst the richest countries in terms of biodiversity in Sahelo-Sudanian Africa with some of the last remaining populations of large mammals that once roamed West-Central Africa. Its protected area (PA) system, made up of three national parks (NP) and seven faunal reserves (FR) and introduced 40 years ago to focus on the protection of large game, has never been reviewed in terms of biodiversity coverage. This study (i) assesses whether the PA network captures Chad's current biodiversity (focusing on ecoregions and threatened mammal species), (ii) identifies gaps in the PA system and (iii) proposes recommendations to improve the representativeness of the PA system, in a country characterised by the lack of biological data. Of the seven ecoregions in Chad, three are not covered by PAs and two are represented only once and have less than 10% of their area included in the PA network. Of the 31 large mammal species used in the analysis, five occur only once in the network and five species are not represented. Analysis of the persistence of species shows that, of the nine historical PAs, all have lost at least one (and up to six) species of large mammals. The Ouadi Rimé-Ouadi Achim FR was found to have the highest irreplaceability index, with the Bahr Salamat FR and Zakouma NP second and third respectively. Zakouma NP has the highest number of large mammal populations of an internationally important size. Threatened large mammals, many depending on large-scale migration, and (migratory) waterbird populations highlight the lack of wetlands in the formal PA system. We recommend a more effective protection of these wetlands, an extension of the PA system into ecoregions not covered by current PAs and provide details on the realignment of several of the PAs that have been encroached upon and are no longer viable.  相似文献   

19.
Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.  相似文献   

20.
Developing innovative monitoring systems for biodiversity outcomes in protected areas (PAs) are important to enable effective adaptive management. Here we show how to quantitatively detect and monitor temporal and spatial patterns in environmental heterogeneity, an important indicator of ecological integrity and biodiversity patterns. We used a 28-year time series (1991–2018) generated from freely available Landsat satellite imagery and Rao's quadratic index to calculate relative heterogeneity and trends in heterogeneity for 41 PAs across South Africa. We selected PAs where mega-herbivore assemblages were similar and where management objectives were broadly aligned with South African legislation to protect biodiversity. There was a three-fold difference in heterogeneity among PAs, mainly linked to variation in topography and rainfall. Heterogeneity decreased in 12 (29%), increased in three (7%) and remained stable in 26 (64%) PA's. These trends were not explained by overall heterogeneity, PA size, or rainfall – i.e., PAs that were smaller, drier, and more homogenous were not more likely to show decreasing trends than PAs that were larger, wetter, and generally more heterogenous. Rather trends in heterogeneity are likely the result of interactions between regional process (e.g., rainfall) and local factors such fire regimes, megaherbivore densities, and park management. The framework presented here can be extended to include every PA nationally, or even globally, and the data product fully automated. This presents an opportunity for conservation management to incorporate this important biodiversity indicator in PA monitoring programs as well as other large-scale ecological monitoring initiatives.  相似文献   

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