内蒙古森林火灾发生风险及其驱动因素

森林火灾是危害森林健康的主要灾害之一,科学预测森林火灾是预防森林火灾的重要依据。以中国新旧森林火灾政策作为分界线,将内蒙古森林历史火灾数据分为四个阶段,基于增强回归树模型建立内蒙古森林火灾发生模型,预测森林火灾发生情况,解释不同时期森林火灾和火灾风险变化的差异。预测结果表明:(1)4个时期建模精度AUC均大于0.94,表明BRT模型能够较好地预测研究区森林火灾的发生;(2)气温日较差、日最小相对湿度、上一年春防累计降水量、上一年秋防累计降水量、上一年春防最高地表气温海拔、距火点最近公路距离被确定为影响内蒙古森林火灾发生的重要驱动因素。(3)新旧《森林防火条例》实施前后森林火灾风险等级变化:1981-1988年3月14日,中、高和极高森林火灾风险区分布在呼伦贝尔的东部,而2009-2020年中、高和极高森林火灾风险区分布在呼伦贝尔南部和中部、赤峰市的西南部、锡林郭勒盟和呼和浩特市的中部、乌兰察布市和包头市的南部以及鄂尔多斯市的东部。有助于了解不同时期《森林防火条例》影响下的内蒙古森林火灾的驱动因素和火险等级的变化,为优化森林火灾管理政策及预测预报工作提供科学依据。     

Recent fire regime characteristics and potential natural vegetation relationships in Spain

Abstract. In heavily altered landscapes, where vegetation is not natural and where people are the main source of ignitions, relationships between fire occurrence and climate conditions may be unclear. The objective of this study was to evaluate to what extent territories with similar Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) in peninsular Spain differ in their forest fire characteristics. From 1974 to 1994, more than 174 000 fires occurred. We used (1) the Spanish data base of forest fires, (2) a PNV map and (3) a land use map. Separate fire characteristics, based either on the number of fires occurred or the area burned, were obtained for each of the ca. 5000 grid‐cells (10 km × 10 km) into which peninsular Spain is divided in the UTM projection. Also, meteorological conditions at the time of fire ignition, cause of ignition and present forest cover were referred to the same grid‐cells as external factors potentially determinant of fire occurrence. The relationships between fire regime characteristics and PNV units were explored with Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The role of the three sets of external factors in the fire characteristics was evaluated with Redundancy Analysis (RDA). Groups of similar PNV types were clearly segregated, suggesting a gradient of fire characteristics. Higher fire incidence (higher frequencies and spatial incidence of fires, but lower proportions of grid‐cells affected by large fires) was associated with Atlantic, warm territories with deciduous forests as PNV. Intermediate fire frequency and rotation period, but with a higher relative incidence of medium and large fires occurred in Mediterranean PNV units, dominated by sclerophyllous oak forests. Low fire frequency and long rotation periods, with strong seasonal and yearly variability occurred for PNV units in the cold uplands (Fagus, Pinus, Abies, Juniperus) or in the semi‐arid, shrubby PNV units. The cause of ignition best explained the patterns of forest fire characteristics, followed by weather conditions. Our results indicate that, even in human influenced regions, climate and soil conditions exert control on the resulting forest fire characteristics, as indicated by the high segregation of the PNV types. However, the role of man was crucial in shifting the patterns of fire incidence. This was so that highest fire incidence occurred in regions that, otherwise, would be expected to have a much lower one, thus posing a serious threat for such areas. PNV maps, by providing a phytogeographical framework for characterizing forest fires, could be valuable tools for applying research results to forest fire management policies, taking properly into account the underlying determinant factors.     

我国北方针叶林人为火发生的预测模型

我国北方针叶林带是重要的森林资源储藏地,也是林火发生的重灾区,其自然火和人为火所占比例相当. 气象因子、地形特征、植被条件、人为基础设施等因素对人为火发生具有显著影响,国内目前应用空间分析技术对北方针叶林带人为火影响因子的研究还存在一定不确定性. 本文基于1974—2009年间人为火的空间地理坐标,结合研究地的气象因子、基础地理信息及矢量化林相图,应用ArcGIS 10.0中的空间分析工具和SPSS 19.0的逻辑斯蒂回归模型对影响人为火发生的主要驱动因子进行分析,并建立人为火发生的概率模型. 利用HADCM2模式下研究区域未来气象数据对塔河地区2015年人为火发生情况进行计算.结果表明： 距离铁路距离（x₁）和平均相对湿度（x₂）对研究区域人为火发生具有显著影响,并得到火险概率模型P=1/［1+e^{-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x₂)}］. 模型校验结果显示,模型的准确度可达到80%.林火发生预测结果表明,塔河地区2015年 4—6月、8月为人为火高发期,其中,4—5月的林火发生概率最高.从火险空间分布来看,高火险主要集中在塔河西部和西南部,铁路线路主要包含在此区域.     

Integration of Lightning- and Human-Caused Wildfire Occurrence Models

Fire risk indices are useful tools for fire prevention actions by fire managers. A fire ignition is either the result of lightning or human activities. In European Mediterranean countries most forest fires are due to human activities. However, lightning is still an important fire ignition source in some regions. Integration of lightning and human fire occurrence probability into fire risk indices would be necessary to have a complete picture of the causal agents and their relative importance in fire occurrence. We present two methods for the integration of lightning and human fire occurrence probability models at 1 × 1 km grid cell resolution in two regions of Spain: Madrid, which presents a high fire incidence due to human activities; and Aragón, one of the most affected regions in Spain by lightning-fires. For validation, independent fire ignition points were used to compute the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-Area Under de Curve (AUC) and the Mahalanobis Distance. Results in Madrid are satisfactory for the human fire occurrence probability model (AUC～0.7) but less suitable for the lightning and the integrated models. In Aragón the fit for the human model is reasonable (AUC～0.7) whereas for the integration methods is practically useless (AUC～0.58).     

Forest Fire Risk Analysis

Southern Europe suffers from forest fires. The management of these disasters is of importance to both government authorities and the public. This article presents the results of a research project aimed at modeling forest fire events and producing fire risk maps. The mathematical model is embedded in an ArcView Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. The interface is in Visual C++ 6.0. The thematic and individual risk maps generated are merged into an integrated risk map. The assessment platform (model, GIS, data, decision support) was applied to the area of northern Evia Island, central Greece, using five different scenarios. The platform provides a tool for use by authorities to estimate risks for forest fire management. The model was specifically adapted for the Olympic Games of 2004, Athens, Greece.     

不同区域森林火灾对生态因子的响应及其概率模型

火灾是影响森林生态系统过程的重要干扰之一,其对森林生态系统内各生态因子的响应各不相同.由于植被状况及生态环境的不同,森林火灾的时空分布特征在中国不同植被气候类型内表现不同,根据植被气候类型分类系统,将中国主要森林火灾地区划分为4个区域:东北(冷温带松林)、华北(落叶阔叶林)、东南(常绿阔叶林)和西南(热带雨林),应用遥感监测数据和地面环境数据,以时空变量、生态因子(植被生长变化指数、湿度等)为可选自变量,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,就森林火险对不同生态影响因子的响应规律进行了分析,建立了基于生态因子的着火概率模型和大火蔓延概率模型,通过模拟及实际数据散点图、火险概率图,评估了模型应用价值.结果表明,土壤湿度及植被含水量在落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林、热带雨林地区对着火概率影响显著.在4个植被气候区内,土壤及凋落物湿度对大火蔓延的作用较小.在冷温带松林、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林地区,植被生长的年内变化对火灾发生的影响显著,在常绿阔叶林地区,年内植被生长变化对大火蔓延的作用较小.森林火险概率与各生态因子的相关关系主要呈现出非线性.不同植被气候区内,火险概率受不同生态因子组合的影响,这与不同区域的植被状况及生态环境不同有关.在不同植被气候类型,应用时空变量、生态因子建立半参数化logistic回归模型,进行着火概率和大火蔓延概率的模拟具有可行性和实际应用能力.为进一步分析森林生态系统与火灾之间的动态关系、展开生态系统火灾干扰研究提供了理论基础.     

Determination of forest fire risk with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and its mapping with the application of GIS: The case of Turkey/Çakırlar

The objectives of this study are the determination of forest fire risks with the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and the mapping of risk levels with the use of geographic information systems (GIS). Socioeconomic, topographic, climatic, and stand structures have been taken into consideration as instrumental criteria in terms of fire risk. Each risk criteria and their sub-criteria membership grades have been determined with the fuzzy set theory. Five-scale fuzzy linguistic importance has been used for pairwise comparison matrices. Criterion weights have been mapped with the use of GIS, and a final risk map was established with weighted overlay analysis. Socioeconomic properties had the highest impact on fire risk with 35%. The high risk degree of this criterion manifests in shrublands with substantial fuel loads and young Calabrian pine forests in low elevation areas at the edge of roads, urban and urban periphery areas, south sloping, and steep sloped areas. The lowest risk degree was manifest in stands of cedar, black pine, and juniper forests, qualifying as old growth spreading in sub-mountain areas where land usage is rather low. Experiences regarding high accuracy fire risk determination and decision support approaches for fire risk management have been discussed and concluded in terms of applied FAHP and GIS procedures.     

A territorial fire vulnerability model for Mediterranean ecosystems in South America

A forest fire risk model was designed and applied to a South American Mediterranean ecosystem, taking into consideration three analysis groups: fire risk; danger of fire spread, or propagation; and damage potential over economic threat values. The study area for development and validation of the model was the Mediterranean zone of central Chile and employed data from historical records spanning a 14 year period (1997–2010). Territorial data layers, combined with analysis of the statistical database and wildfire simulation have enabled areas of highest vulnerability to be defined with greater precision, especially in sectors associated with the urban–wildland interface (defined as the zone where man-made structures meet wildland). Maps generated by this model have enabled improvements to be made to the traditional mapping of fires currently undertaken in South American countries. The results shown here are applicable to other Mediterranean areas, where modifications are made to the entrance variables in the risk model.     

混合效应模型在林火发生预测中的适用性

林火是森林生态系统的重要影响因子,建立科学准确的林火预测预报模型对林火管理工作至关重要。本研究以不同气象因子为主要预测变量,基于Logistic回归和广义线性混合效应模型建立福建省林火发生预测模型,通过对比Logistic基础模型和广义线性混合效应模型的拟合度和预测精度,研究混合效应模型在林火预报中的适用性。结果表明: Logistic基础模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.664,验证准确率为60.4%。添加随机效应后,模型的拟合和检验精度均获得了提升。其中,考虑行政区划和海拔差异效应的两水平混合效应模型的表现最优,其AUC值和验证准确率分别比基础模型提升0.057和6.0%。用此混合效应模型对福建省各地区的林火发生概率进行预测的结果表明,福建省西北部和南部为林火中高发区域,西南部和东部为林火低发区域,与实际观测的火点分布一致。混合效应模型在数据拟合和林火发生预测方面均优于Logistic基础模型,可作为林火预测和管理的重要工具。     

基于随机森林算法的中国西南地区林火发生预测模型构建及驱动因子

林火直接破坏森林资源,改变森林的结构与功能,影响局地甚至全球气候状况并威胁人类生命和财产安全,在气候变暖背景下林火将更加频发,因此开展林火预测/预报研究至关重要。利用MODIS （Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）的温度异常/火产品（MOD14A1）获取逐日林火数据,分析了2001-2018年中国西南地区林火时空分布特征;采用随机森林算法,综合考虑气象、地形、可燃物状况及植被等林火驱动因子,构建了中国西南地区干、湿季林火发生预测模型,系统分析了西南地区干湿季林火发生的主要驱动因子。结果表明：（1）中国西南地区林火主要集中分布于云南大部、四川西南部及贵州南部地区,并呈集聚分布特征;林火多发于干季,占林火发生总次数的96.5%,年林火发生次数呈阶段性变化特征,2001-2014年呈现显著增加趋势,随后表现为不显著减少趋势;（2）构建的干、湿季林火发生预测模型能较准确地模拟林火发生状况：训练期模型准确率分别处于82.94%-83.99%与85.12%-90.31%之间,AUC （Area Under Curve）值分别处于0.908-0.914与0.922-0.965之间;测试期模型准确率分别为79.73%和83.27%,AUC值分别为0.886和0.855;（3）海拔是西南地区林火发生最关键的限制因子,林火多集中于中海拔区,而在低海拔和高海拔地区林火不易发生,这与人类活动密切相关。当日的气象条件是干季林火发生次重要的驱动因子,可燃物的温湿度状况则是湿季林火发生次重要的驱动因子。FWI系统指标（Fire Weather Index）在西南地区有较好的适用性且对于区域干湿季林火发生均有重要的影响,因此在西南地区林火预测/预报工作中有必要引入FWI系统指标。     

Assessment of soil erosion risk using an integrated approach of GIS and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Erzurum,Turkiye

Assessing soil erosion hazards and mapping the spatial distribution of soil erosion have an essential role in sustainable forest management. In this study, the potential soil erosion risk was evaluated through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in the Oltu forest planning unit, Erzurum. Seven erosion-related criteria, including slope, bedrock type, relative relief, drainage density and frequency, rainfall, and land use/land cover (LULC) were used for the present assessment. According to the AHP analysis, the slope was the most influential factor (21%) followed by bedrock type (19%), land cover (17%), and relative relief (14%) in the soil erosion process. The soil erosion risk in the study area was strongly influenced by the LULC where 59.46% is bare land with high erosion risk and 12.07%, with the lowest risk, is in an area with any forest cover. The estimated soil erosion risk was classified into five different classes namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The results showed that this study area is highly prone to soil erosion. The larger proportion of the area (39.16%) is exposed to high to very high erosion, mainly determined by forest cover and geomorphology. To analyze the accuracy of the soil erosion risk map, 40 points were selected randomly in this study area. In these points, predicted values were compared to the real values obtained by Google Earth-colored images. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) method was applied to validate the efficiency of the AHP which showed a satisfactory accuracy of 81.00%. Findings presented that including the more influencing factors with a slope instead of including only the slope contributes to a more accurate erosion risk map. This study highlighted that GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making is a valuable and practical tool for decision-makers and land managers in creating soil erosion susceptibility maps and determining high-priority areas that require conservation measures for sustainable land use management by reducing the economic and ecological impacts of soil loss. Also, this approach can be practically applied in other planning units.     

基于MODIS卫星火点的浙江省林火季节变化及驱动因子

研究林火变化趋势和驱动因子,可为林火预防和管理提供科学依据。本研究基于MODIS卫星火点数据,结合气象(日平均风速、日平均温度、日相对湿度、气温日较差、日累计降水)、人为(到公路距离、到铁路距离、到居民点距离、人口密度、人均GDP)、地形和植被因素(高程、坡度、植被覆盖度),运用趋势分析法、Logistic回归模型,对浙江省2001—2016年林火变化趋势和驱动因子进行研究。结果表明: 浙江省春、夏季林火呈显著上升趋势,秋、冬季林火呈先上升后下降趋势,秋季下降趋势显著。浙江省各季节林火预测模型拟合度均较高,模型预测准确率分别为75.8%(春季)、79.1%(夏季)、74.7%(秋季)和79.6%(冬季)。浙江省春、夏季林火发生与变化受气象、人为、地形和植被因素的显著影响;秋、冬季林火发生与变化主要受气象因素影响。在影响因素复杂、高火险区域分散的春、夏季,林火管理应重点加强人为活动管理和防火宣传教育;在秋、冬季,可通过在高火险区集中分布的西南地区增设瞭望塔和监控设备进行监测和管理。     

Socioeconomic Factors Drive Fire-Regime Variability in the Mediterranean Basin

In recent decades, fires in Mediterranean Europe have become larger and more frequent. This trend has been driven by socioeconomic changes that have generated rural depopulation and changes in traditional land use. Within the Mediterranean Basin, the most contrasting socioeconomic conditions are found by comparing southern European with North African countries, and thus our hypothesis is that this difference generates contrasting fire regimes between the two regions. Specifically, we predict that current fire regimes in Mediterranean Africa resemble past fire regimes in the Mediterranean Europe when rural activities dominated the landscape. To test our hypothesis, we compared fire statistics from the western Rif (northern Morocco, 1988–2015) and from Valencia (eastern Spain, 1880–2014). The results suggest that the Rif has a typical Mediterranean fire regime with fires occurring in the hot, dry summer season. However, fires are very small and the annual proportion of burnt area is very low, compared to the current regime in Valencia (post-1970s). The current Rif fire size class distribution matches the fire regime in Valencia prior to the 1970s before the collapse of the rural population and when fires were fuel-limited. The shift in the recent decades in fire regime observed in different countries of the Mediterranean Europe (from small, fuel-limited fires to drought-driven fires) can be identified when moving from the southern to the northern rim of the basin. That is, most spatial and temporal variability in fire regimes of the Mediterranean Basin is driven by shifts in the amounts of fuel and continuity imposed by changes in socioeconomic drivers.     

气候变化背景下江西省林火空间预测

林火是森林生态系统中重要的干扰因子之一,深刻地影响森林景观结构和功能。在全球气候化背景下,揭示气候变化对林火空间分布格局的影响,可为林火管理和防火资源分配提供科学指导。因此,基于江西省2001—2015年MODIS火影像数据(MCD14ML)和年均气温、年均降水量、植被、地形、人口密度、距道路距离、距居民点距离7个因子数据,利用增强回归树模型:(1)分析林火发生影响因子的相对重要性及其边际效应;(2)将GFDL-CM3和GISS-E2-R气候变化模式中的年均气温和年均降水量作为未来的气象数据,在3个温室气体排放量情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下,对2050年(2041—2060的平均值)和2070年(2061—2080的平均值)江西省林火分布进行预测,生成林火发生概率图。并采用受试者工作特征(ROC曲线)和混淆矩阵评估模型预测的精度。研究结果表明:(1)年均气温和海拔与江西省林火发生的相关性较强,年均降水量、居民点距离、人口密度、道路距离与林火发生的相关性较弱,但是与林火发生密切相关的如降水、风速等也应重点关注;(2)训练数据(70%)和验证数据(30%)的AUC值(ROC曲线下面积值)均为0.736,混淆矩阵对火点预测的正确率为67.8%,表明模型能够较好地预测研究区林火的发生;(3)在RCP8.5排放情景中林火发生的增幅最明显,其增幅较大的区域由赣南向赣北移动;(4)未来2050年和2070年林火发生与当前气候(2001—2015年)下相比,赣州市、鹰潭市的增幅较为明显,其他区域不明显。江西省各林业管理部门要加强林火高发区及潜在发生区的森林监测和管理,加大防火宣传力度,提升民众的森林防火意识。     

Stand Age Influence on Potential Wildfire Ignition and Spread in the Boreal Forest of Northeastern Canada

Although it has long been assumed that wildfire occurrence is independent of stand age in the North American boreal forest, recent studies indicate that young forests may influence burn rates by limiting the ignition and spread of fires for several years. Wildfires not only structure the stand-age mosaic of boreal landscapes, but also alter the likelihood and behavior of subsequent fires. Using a fire simulation model, we evaluated the effect of stand age on the magnitude and spatial patterns of burn probability (BP) in the boreal forest of northeastern Canada. Specifically, we assessed the stand age effect on the two processes driving fire likelihood, ignition and spread, by simulating tens of thousands of fires under three fire regime scenarios that vary in terms of mean fire size and number of burned patches. Assuming minimal resistance to fire ignition and spread, where only the youngest stands (≤ 10 years) are resistant to burning, mean BP is reduced by 10%; in contrast, assuming maximum resistance, where stands up to 90 years old impede wildfires, mean BP can be reduced up to 85%. Although the resistance to ignition on BP is almost identical in magnitude to that of spread, it yields substantially different spatial arrangements of BP. Furthermore, stand age resistance reduces subsequent fire activity not only within but also outside the perimeter of burned patches through a shadow effect. Our results help to untangle the role of factors contributing to stand age resistance on wildfires and offer new insights for improving the spatial mapping of fire likelihood.     

Comparative study of the analytical hierarchy process,frequency ratio,and logistic regression models for predicting the susceptibility to Ips sexdentatus in Crimean pine forests

The six-toothed bark beetle Ips sexdentatus is one of the most important pests of coniferous trees that can cause extensive tree mortality, and change the structure and composition of forest ecosystems. Many abiotic and biotic factors affect the infestation of bark beetles. Early detection of forest stands predisposed to bark beetle infestations will benefit from reducing the impacts of possible infestations. The study focused on the production and comparison of Ips sexdentatus susceptibility maps using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), frequency ratio (FR), and logistical regression (LR) models. The research was carried out in the Crimean pine forests of the Taşköprü Forest Enterprise in Kastamonu City in the Western Black Sea region of Türkiye. The eight main criteria used to produce the map were the stand structure, site index, crown closure, stand age, slope, elevation, maximum temperature, and solar radiation. The map of the infested stands was used for the models' validation. Crown closure was determined as the one of the most important factors in all three models. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to determine the accuracy of the maps. The validation results showed that the AUC for the FR model was 0.747, for the AHP model was 0.716, and for the LR model was 0.638. The results revealed that the FR model was more accurate than the other models in producing an I. sexdentatus susceptibility map. Besides, the AHP model was also reasonably accurate. This study could help decision makers to produce bark beetle susceptibility maps easily and rapidly so they can take the necessary precautions to slow or prevent infestations.     

Fire, fuels and restoration of ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Aim Forest restoration in ponderosa pine and mixed ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests in the US Rocky Mountains has been highly influenced by a historical model of frequent, low‐severity surface fires developed for the ponderosa pine forests of the Southwestern USA. A restoration model, based on this low‐severity fire model, focuses on thinning and prescribed burning to restore historical forest structure. However, in the US Rocky Mountains, research on fire history and forest structure, and early historical reports, suggest the low‐severity model may only apply in limited geographical areas. The aim of this article is to elaborate a new variable‐severity fire model and evaluate the applicability of this model, along with the low‐severity model, for the ponderosa pine–Douglas fir forests of the Rocky Mountains. Location Rocky Mountains, USA. Methods The geographical applicability of the two fire models is evaluated using historical records, fire histories and forest age‐structure analyses. Results Historical sources and tree‐ring reconstructions document that, near or before ad 1900, the low‐severity model may apply in dry, low‐elevation settings, but that fires naturally varied in severity in most of these forests. Low‐severity fires were common, but high‐severity fires also burned thousands of hectares. Tree regeneration increased after these high‐severity fires, and often attained densities much greater than those reconstructed for Southwestern ponderosa pine forests. Main conclusions Exclusion of fire has not clearly and uniformly increased fuels or shifted the fire type from low‐ to high‐severity fires. However, logging and livestock grazing have increased tree densities and risk of high‐severity fires in some areas. Restoration is likely to be most effective which seeks to (1) restore variability of fire, (2) reverse changes brought about by livestock grazing and logging, and (3) modify these land uses so that degradation is not repeated.     

Climatic change and fire potential in South-Central British Columbia, Canada

The incidence and severity of forest fires are linked to the interaction between climate, fuel and topography. Increased warming and drying in the future is expected to have a significant impact on the risk of forest fire occurrence. An increase in fire risk is linked to the synchronous relationship between climate and fuel moisture conditions. A warmer, drier climate will lead to drier forest fuels that will in turn increase the chance of successful fire ignition and propagation. This interaction will increase the severity of fire weather, which, in turn, will increase the risk of extreme fire behaviour. A warmer climate will also extend fire season length, which will increase the likelihood of fires occurring over a greater proportion of the year. In this study of the North Okanagan area of British Columbia, Canada, the impacts of climate change of fire potential were evaluated using the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and multiple climate scenario analysis. Utilizing this approach, a 30% increase in fire season length was modelled to occur by 2070. In addition, statistically significant increases in fire severity and fire behaviour were also modelled. Fire weather severity was predicted to increase by 95% during the summer months by 2070 while fire behaviour was predicted to shift from surface fire‐intermittent crown fire regimes to a predominantly intermittent‐full crown fire regime by 2070 onwards. An increase in fire season length, fire weather severity and fire behaviour will increase the costs of fire suppression and the risk of property and resource loss while limiting human‐use within vulnerable forest landscapes. An increase in fire weather severity and fire behaviour over a greater proportion of the season will increase the risks faced by ecosystems and biodiversity to climatic change and increase the costs and difficulty of achieving sustainable forest management.     

Fire history of Pinus nigra in Western Anatolia: A first dendrochronological study

Forests in the Mediterranean basin frequently experience fires due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. There are concerns that the fire season will prolong in the Mediterranean basin, the fire frequency will increase with ongoing climate change, moreover, the fire regimes will shift from surface fires to local crown fires. Here, we aim to improve our understanding of the fire regime components of black pine forests in Turkey by 1) reconstructing a high-resolution fire chronology based on tree rings, 2) revealing the seasonality of fires, 3) investigating the relationship between fire and climate, and 4) comparing our reconstruction results with documentary data from forest management units. We collected 62 fire-scarred trees from three sites in Kütahya and developed a 368 year-long (1652–2019) composite fire chronology using dendrochronological methods. We found that at two sites major fire years coincided with dry years. Two major fire years (1853 and 1879) were common to all sites and two additional fire years (1822 and 1894) were found at two sites. Our results show a sharp decline in fire frequency after the beginning of the 20th century at all sites that can be attributed to increased fire suppression efforts and forest management activities in the 20th century. Our results suggest that the spread of fires has been actively suppressed since the first forest protection law in Turkey. Yet, tree-ring based and documentary data corroboration shows that seasonality did not change over the past +350 years.