High-altitude tree growth responses to climate change across the Hindu Kush Himalaya

兴都库什喜马拉雅地区高海拔树木生长对气候变化的响应 高海拔地区快速升温可能导致树木对温度响应更为敏感,而限制高海拔地区树木生长的关键气候因子以及气候变化对树木生长产生多大程度的影响尚不清楚。本研究在兴都库什喜马拉雅地区收集了73 个样点的树轮数据,包括3个优势属的树种(Abies属、Juniperus属和Picea属),样点海拔均在3000 m以上。 将时间动态规整(dynamic time warping)的方法用于建立亚区域年表,以考虑不同站点年表之间变化的同步 性。同时,定量分析了气候因子对树木生长的贡献以及树木生长与气候因子关系的时空动态。研究结果发现,73个站点年表可以聚为3类,且与其所处的生物气候区相对应,即西喜马拉雅地区,中东喜马拉雅地区和藏东南地区。在干旱的西喜马拉雅地区,树木生长与冬、春两季的降水呈正相关关系,而在湿润的藏东南地区,树木生长与冬季温度和春季降水呈正相关关系。树木生长受最低温度的影响最大,特别是冬季温度,其重要性从西到东呈现递增趋势。滑动窗口相关分析表明,在中西喜马拉雅地区,影响树木生长的冬季温度信号在减弱,然而在藏东南地区该信号随着1980年以来的快速升温而增强。本研究结果表明,若该地区升温持续,在西喜马拉雅地区可能会因变暖引起的水分亏缺而造成森林衰退,而在藏东南地区因树木生长得益于变暖而使得森林扩张。     

Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change

Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate‐vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche‐demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a ‘business‐as‐usual’ climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100‐year trajectories for range‐restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5‐year, and 10‐year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change.     

Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment

Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny, especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e., seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis, China, based on phenological data for the period 1962–2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951–2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species, consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases, but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations, however, in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences, with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments.     

Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

Aim Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well‐being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We explore potential methods to identify areas vulnerable to vegetation shifts and potential refugia. Location Global vegetation biomes. Methods We examined nine combinations of three sets of potential indicators of the vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change: (1) observed changes of 20th‐century climate, (2) projected 21st‐century vegetation changes using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, and (3) overlap of results from (1) and (2). Estimating probability density functions for climate observations and confidence levels for vegetation projections, we classified areas into vulnerability classes based on IPCC treatment of uncertainty. Results One‐tenth to one‐half of global land may be highly (confidence 0.80–0.95) to very highly (confidence ≥ 0.95) vulnerable. Temperate mixed forest, boreal conifer and tundra and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to potential changes in wildfire. Tropical evergreen broadleaf forest and desert biomes show the lowest vulnerability. Main conclusions Spatial analyses of observed climate and projected vegetation indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change. A mismatch between vulnerability patterns and the geographic priorities of natural resource organizations suggests the need to adapt management plans. Approximately a billion people live in the areas classified as vulnerable.     

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations'' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.     

Adaptation to host plants may prevent rapid insect responses to climate change

We must consider the role of multitrophic interactions when examining species' responses to climate change. Many plant species, particularly trees, are limited in their ability to shift their geographic ranges quickly under climate change. Consequently, for herbivorous insects, geographic mosaics of host plant specialization could prohibit range shifts and adaptation when insects become separated from suitable host plants. In this study, we examined larval growth and survival of an oak specialist butterfly (Erynnis propertius) on different oaks (Quercus spp.) that occur across its range to determine if individuals can switch host plants if they move into new areas under climate change. Individuals from Oregon and northern California, USA that feed on Q. garryana and Q. kelloggii in the field experienced increased mortality on Q. agrifolia, a southern species with low nutrient content. In contrast, populations from southern California that normally feed on Q. agrifolia performed well on Q. agrifolia and Q. garryana and poorly on the northern, high elevation Q. kelloggii. Therefore, colonization of southern E. propertius in higher elevations and some northern locales may be prohibited under climate change but latitudinal shifts to Q. garryana may be possible. Where shifts are precluded due to maladaptation to hosts, populations may not accrue warm‐adapted genotypes. Our study suggests that, when interacting species experience asynchronous range shifts, historical local adaptation may preclude populations from colonizing new locales under climate change.     

Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick

Climate change has led to shifts in phenology in many species distributed widely across taxonomic groups. It is, however, unclear how we should interpret these shifts without some sort of a yardstick: a measure that will reflect how much a species should be shifting to match the change in its environment caused by climate change. Here, we assume that the shift in the phenology of a species' food abundance is, by a first approximation, an appropriate yardstick. We review the few examples that are available, ranging from birds to marine plankton. In almost all of these examples, the phenology of the focal species shifts either too little (five out of 11) or too much (three out of 11) compared to the yardstick. Thus, many species are becoming mistimed due to climate change. We urge researchers with long-term datasets on phenology to link their data with those that may serve as a yardstick, because documentation of the incidence of climate change-induced mistiming is crucial in assessing the impact of global climate change on the natural world.     

Hydrologic refugia,plants, and climate change

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability – mesic microenvironments – are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species‐specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate‐cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow.     

Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants

Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distribution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST); up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance dispersal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for temperate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with F(ST) estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species' vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts.     

Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change

Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate‐related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range‐wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate‐related genetic diversity within populations.     

Redistribution of the lizardfish Harpadon nehereus in coastal waters of China due to climate change

Climate change has the potential to greatly alter species distributions and threatens biodiversity in marine ecosystems. Mapping changes in species distribution patterns under climate change will help facilitate management strategies to maintain ecosystem structure and function. The lizardfish Harpadon nehereus is an aggressive predator that has experienced rapid population growth along the coast of China in recent decades, compressing the ecological niches of other marine species and disrupting food webs. If this species’ range is shifting due to climate change, it could further impact the integrity of ecological communities. To map the distribution of H. nehereus, we developed an ensemble species distribution model and projected the present and future habitat suitability in Chinese coastal waters. Annual mean benthic water temperature was identified as the most important variable affecting the projected distribution of H. nehereus, followed by water depth and salinity. Currently suitable habitats are along the coast from Guangxi Province to the southern Jiangsu Province. As climate changes, the southern portion of its distribution is predicted to recede with habitat losses, and the overall suitable habitat will shift northward. To avoid the potential impacts of H. nehereus redistribution, precautionary management based on species distribution modeling would help to maintain healthy marine ecosystems in the newly invaded areas.

     

Climate change‐induced distributional change of medicinal and aromatic plants in the Nepal Himalaya

Medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) contribute to human well‐being via health and economic benefits. Nepal has recorded 2331 species of MAPs, of which around 300 species are currently under trade. Wild harvested MAPs in Nepal are under increasing pressure from overexploitation for trade and the effects of climate change and development. Despite some localized studies to examine the impact of climate change on MAPs, a consolidated understanding is lacking on how the distribution of major traded species of MAPs will change with future climate change. This study identifies the potential distribution of 29 species of MAPs in Nepal under current and future climate using an ensemble modeling and hotspot approach. Future climate change will reduce climatically suitable areas of two‐third of the studied species and decrease climatically suitable hotspots across elevation, physiography, ecoregions, federal states, and protected areas in Nepal. Reduction in climatically suitable areas for MAPs might have serious consequences for the livelihood of people that depend on the collection and trade of MAPs as well as Nepal''s national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to consider the threats that future climate change may have on distribution of MAPs while designing protected areas and devising environmental conservation and climate adaptation policies.     

气候变化对野生植物的影响及保护对策

以温室气体浓度持续上升、全球气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对野生植物及生物多样性造成的潜在影响, 已经引起了国际学者的高度关注。本文总结了全球气候变化的现状与未来趋势, 概述了中国野生植物的保护及管理现状, 从不同侧面综述了国内外关于全球气候变暖对野生植物影响的研究进展和动态, 包括气候带北移、两极冰山退缩、高海拔山地变暖、海平面上升、早春温度提前升高、荒漠草原土壤增温、旱涝急转弯等对野生植物造成的影响以及气候变暖对种间关系和敏感植物类群的影响, 并从气候变化背景下全球生态系统敏感度、植物多样性、物种迁移与气候槽(sink areas)、物种适应与灭绝以及物候节律5个方面分析了未来全球变暖影响野生植物的总体趋势。在以后的野生植物保护与管理中, 应确定全球气候变化的植物多样性敏感区, 重点关注对气候变化敏感的植物类群以及气候要素改变植物-动物互作关系中的野生植物, 自然保护区的建设要重点考虑全球气候变化的影响, 通过在全球范围内对野生植物分布和种群变化进行长期、系统的追踪监测, 建立有效的数据库, 发展野生植物迁地保护的保育技术及信息网络, 发展有关野生植物对全球气候变化响应的量化指标及相应的模型。最后提出应将全球气候变化下野生植物保护与管理列入相关基金会的研究重点。     

Effects of climate change on parasitic plants: the root hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae

Climate change may affect hemisparasiticOrobanchaceae (ex-Scrophulariaceae) both directly through impacts on hemiparasite physiology and indirectly through impacts on host plants. This dual action suggests particular sensitivity of the parasite to climate change and any associated impacts on hosts and other members of the community. While little research has addressed the responses of parasitic plants to climate change in natural environments, impacts are predicted from controlled environment studies together with a knowledge of the key ecophysiological traits of hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae, in particular ofStriga species, which are important weeds in semi-arid tropical agro-ecosystems, andRhinanthus species, which can be important components of (principally) grassland communities in the northern temperate zone. The main mode of important components of (principally) grassland communities in the northern temperate zone. The main mode of action of both elevated CO₂ and warming will be through changes in photosynthesis and stomatal functioning. Enhanced photosynthesis of the hemiparasite and host will increase parasite carbon gains but may also increase the demand for host mineral nutrients. Mineral nutrition may, therefore, mediate the impacts of climate change on host-parasite associations. The relative insensitivity of hemiparasite stomata to elevated CO₂ suggests that high stomatal conductances may be maintained and thus solute uptake may become limited by soil drying driven by higher rates of evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. Climate change impacts on host-parasite interactions at the individual level will ultimately affect hemiparasite impacts at the community level. Community impacts will be greatest where climate change considerably favours hemiparasite populations or, conversely, causes them to disappear from communities where they were formerly abundant. Impacts will further be mediated by climate impacts on hosts, and the natural enemies of hosts and parasites alike. Further, the wide host range of many root hemiparasitic plants may facilitate migration of their populations through new communities under a changing climate.     

Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought‐prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.