The renewable energy-growth nexus with carbon emissions and technological innovation: Evidence from the Nordic countries

Despite the fact that previous studies have extensively investigated the renewable energy-growth nexus, those studies have not considered the role of technological innovation. This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in the four Nordic countries by constructing a vector autoregression (VAR) model. On the basis of a modified version of the Granger non-causality test, the results show a unidirectional causality running from renewable energy to CO₂ emissions for Denmark and Finland and a bidirectional causality between these variables for Sweden and Norway. The findings also indicate a unidirectional causality running from technological innovation to renewable energy and from growth to renewable energy for the four Nordic countries. The results could not confirm any causality from renewable energy to growth. Three policy implications are offered: (i) renewable energy improves environmental well-being, (ii) the Nordic countries have very low energy intensities and high energy efficiencies, and (iii) technological innovation plays an effective role in the renewable energy-growth nexus.     

End of life of buildings: three alternatives, two scenarios. A case study

Purpose

The objective of this case study is to identify the relevant processes needed in the environmental assessment of the end of life of a building and to identify the demolition process variables that significantly affect energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases. Different scenarios of demolition, based on three alternatives for managing construction and demolition waste (C&DW) generated during demolition works, are analyzed. This study is based upon typical construction and demolition practices and waste management in Spain.

Methods

Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is applied to assess objectively and quantitatively different C&DW management plans during the design phase and to identify the significant environmental aspects. The impact categories considered are global warming potential and human toxicity potential. Furthermore, the indicator primary energy (non renewable energy from fossil fuels) is also studied.

Results

Design of C&DW management plans to enhance the recovery of waste, reducing significantly the selected environmental indicators, was assessed in this study. Waste transport from the demolition work to the treatment plant and the transport of the non-recyclable fraction to the final disposal, as well as the fuel consumption in hydraulic demolition equipment and in the loading/unloading equipment of the treatment plants, are the most significant environmental aspects associated with the management plan based on a selective demolition, whereas in a conventional demolition process, the main environmental aspect is waste transport from the demolition work to final disposal.

Conclusions

LCA studies allow an assessment of different demolition processes. A tool for recording environmental data has been developed. This tool provides in a systematic manner life cycle inventory and life cycle impact assessment of the end of life of a building, facilitating the study of management plans in the design phase.     

Toward a Carbon Dioxide Neutral Industrial Park

The industrial park of Herdersbrug (Brugge, Flanders, Belgium) comprises 92 small and medium‐sized enterprises, a waste‐to‐energy incinerator, and a power plant (not included in the study) on its site. To study the carbon dioxide (CO₂) neutrality of the park, we made a park‐wide inventory for 2007 of the CO₂ emissions due to energy consumption (electricity and fossil fuel) and waste incineration, as well as an inventory of the existing renewable electricity and heat generation. The definition of CO₂ neutrality in Flanders only considers CO₂ released as a consequence of consumption or generation of electricity, not the CO₂ emitted when fossil fuel is consumed for heat generation. To further decrease or avoid CO₂ emissions, we project and evaluate measures to increase renewable energy generation. The 21 kilotons (kt) of CO₂ emitted due to electricity consumption are more than compensated by the 25 kt of CO₂ avoided by generation of renewable electricity. Herdersbrug Industrial Park is thus CO₂ neutral, according to the definition of the Flemish government. Only a small fraction (6.6%) of the CO₂ emitted as a consequence of fossil fuel consumption (heat generation) and waste incineration is compensated by existing and projected measures for renewable heat generation. Of the total CO₂ emission (149 kt) due to energy consumption (electricity + heat generation) and waste incineration on the Herdersbrug Industrial Park in 2007, 70.5% is compensated by existing and projected renewable energy generated in the park. Forty‐seven percent of the yearly avoided CO₂ corresponds to renewable energy generated from waste incineration and biomass fermentation.     

Environmental and resource burdens associated with world biofuel production out to 2050: footprint components from carbon emissions and land use to waste arisings and water consumption

Environmental or ‘ecological’ footprints have been widely used in recent years as indicators of resource consumption and waste absorption presented in terms of biologically productive land area [in global hectares (gha)] required per capita with prevailing technology. In contrast, ‘carbon footprints’ are the amount of carbon (or carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions for such activities in units of mass or weight (like kilograms per functional unit), but can be translated into a component of the environmental footprint (on a gha basis). The carbon and environmental footprints associated with the world production of liquid biofuels have been computed for the period 2010–2050. Estimates of future global biofuel production were adopted from the 2011 International Energy Agency (IEA) ‘technology roadmap’ for transport biofuels. This suggests that, although first generation biofuels will dominate the market up to 2020, advanced or second generation biofuels might constitute some 75% of biofuel production by 2050. The overall environmental footprint was estimated to be 0.29 billion (bn) gha in 2010 and is likely to grow to around 2.57 bn gha by 2050. It was then disaggregated into various components: bioproductive land, built land, carbon emissions, embodied energy, materials and waste, transport, and water consumption. This component‐based approach has enabled the examination of the Manufactured and Natural Capital elements of the ‘four capitals’ model of sustainability quite broadly, along with specific issues (such as the linkages associated with the so‐called energy–land–water nexus). Bioproductive land use was found to exhibit the largest footprint component (a 48% share in 2050), followed by the carbon footprint (23%), embodied energy (16%), and then the water footprint (9%). Footprint components related to built land, transport and waste arisings were all found to account for an insignificant proportion to the overall environmental footprint, together amounting to only about 2%     

Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade in OECD countries

This paper investigates the causal relationships between per capita CO₂ emissions, gross domestic product (GDP), renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and international trade for a panel of 25 OECD countries over the period 1980–2010. Short-run Granger causality tests show the existence of bidirectional causality between: renewable energy consumption and imports, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy and trade (exports or imports); and unidirectional causality running from: exports to renewable energy, trade to CO₂ emissions, output to renewable energy. There are also long-run bidirectional causalities between all our considered variables. Our long-run fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimates show that the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is verified for this sample of OECD countries. They also show that increasing non-renewable energy increases CO₂ emissions. Interestingly, increasing trade or renewable energy reduces CO₂ emissions. According to these results, more trade and more use of renewable energy are efficient strategies to combat global warming in these countries.     

Prospects for sustainable bioenergy production in selected former communist countries

The renewed interest in biomass-derived energy, which was the main source of heat and power until the industrial revolution and still contributes a significant portion to energy consumption in the developing world, is based on the premises that bioenergy can serve to reduce dependence on foreign energy supplies, boost and reduce the volatility of farmers’ incomes, develop a sustainable renewable energy basis, and cut greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Growing urgency to address these problems and the European Union's global leadership role motivate the baseline assessment of the potential for sustainable bioenergy production in the most recent two EU member states (Bulgaria and Romania) and the former Soviet republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) by reviewing the literature and drawing on available data. The paper integrates the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices, and shows that there is still a lack of knowledge and approaches at this nexus. The main factors to be considered by the countries included in our study are: the type of energy carrier, the transportation and production processes, as well as the long-term environmental impacts associated with intensive biomass production. Specifically, the baseline assessment is using typical indicators to describe bioenergy carriers and their production and consumption in thermal or mass units as well as in percentage shares of total renewable energy produced or consumed. Our findings indicate that the potential for developing sustainable bioenergy production is generally small but with considerable cross-country variation. Only Bulgaria, Romania, and Kazakhstan are endowed with the necessary natural, climatic, and economic conditions to develop sustainable biomass productions and markets.     

The role of bioenergy and biochemicals in CO2 mitigation through the energy system – a scenario analysis for the Netherlands

Bioenergy as well as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage are key options to embark on cost‐efficient trajectories that realize climate targets. Most studies have not yet assessed the influence on these trajectories of emerging bioeconomy sectors such as biochemicals and renewable jet fuels (RJFs). To support a systems transition, there is also need to demonstrate the impact on the energy system of technology development, biomass and fossil fuel prices. We aim to close this gap by assessing least‐cost pathways to 2030 for a number of scenarios applied to the energy system of the Netherlands, using a cost‐minimization model. The type and magnitude of biomass deployment are highly influenced by technology development, fossil fuel prices and ambitions to mitigate climate change. Across all scenarios, biomass consumption ranges between 180 and 760 PJ and national emissions between 82 and 178 Mt CO₂. High technology development leads to additional 100–270 PJ of biomass consumption and 8–20 Mt CO₂ emission reduction compared to low technology development counterparts. In high technology development scenarios, additional emission reduction is primarily achieved by bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. Traditional sectors, namely industrial biomass heat and biofuels, supply 61–87% of bioenergy, while wind turbines are the main supplier of renewable electricity. Low technology pathways show lower biochemical output by 50–75%, do not supply RJFs and do not utilize additional biomass compared to high technology development. In most scenarios the emission reduction targets for the Netherlands are not met, as additional reduction of 10–45 Mt CO₂ is needed. Stronger climate policy is required, especially in view of fluctuating fossil fuel prices, which are shown to be a key determinant of bioeconomy development. Nonetheless, high technology development is a no‐regrets option to realize deep emission reduction as it also ensures stable growth for the bioeconomy even under unfavourable conditions.     

城市食物-能源-水关联关系:概念框架与研究展望

食物、能源和水(Food, Energy and Water, FEW)是人类生存与发展不可或缺的基础性资源,且三者之间存在密切的关联关系(Nexus),即其中任何一项资源的生产与供给均依赖于另外两项资源。FEW关联关系作为应对全球人口增长、资源短缺和生态环境恶化等问题的系统性管理理念,已引起国际学术界与实践管理领域的广泛关注。然而,目前对FEW关联关系仍然缺乏统一和清晰的界定,现有研究大多是基于不同角度理解与量化"关联关系"。城市作为全球资源消费的主阵地,其FEW关联关系更为复杂,亟待建立针对城市生态系统的概念框架。对FEW关联关系的发展历程、概念表述以及研究方法等方面进行全面回顾和系统分析。在此基础上,从"资源依存"、"资源供给"和"系统集成"等3个视角构建了城市FEW关联关系的概念框架,并进一步阐述FEW关联关系未来研究的重点方向——"系统性表征"、"时空演化"与"协同管理",为城市优化资源配置,实现集成管理提供一种新思路和定量化的参考依据。     

Renewable Energy from Willow Biomass Crops: Life Cycle Energy,Environmental and Economic Performance

Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) along with other woody biomass feedstocks will play a significant role in a more secure and sustainable energy future for the United States and around the world. In temperate regions, shrub willows are being developed as a SRWC because of their potential for high biomass production in short time periods, ease of vegetative propagation, broad genetic base, and ability to resprout after multiple harvests. Understanding and working with willow's biology is important for the agricultural and economic success of the system.

The energy, environmental, and economic performance of willow biomass production and conversion to electricity is evaluated using life cycle modeling methods. The net energy ratio (electricity generated/life cycle fossil fuel consumed) for willow ranges from 10 to 13 for direct firing and gasification processes. Reductions of 70 to 98 percent (compared to U.S. grid generated electricity) in greenhouse gas emissions as well as NO_x, SO₂, and particulate emissions are achieved.

Despite willow's multiple environmental and rural development benefits, its high cost of production has limited deployment. Costs will be lowered by significant improvements in yields and production efficiency and by valuing the system's environmental and rural development benefits. Policies like the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), federal biomass tax credits and renewable portfolio standards will make willow cost competitive in the near term.

The avoided air pollution from the substitution of willow for conventional fossil fuel generated electricity has an estimated damage cost of $0.02 to $0.06 kWh^?1. The land intensity of about 4.9 × 10^?5 ha-yr/kWh is greater than other renewable energy sources. This may be considered the most significant limitation of willow, but unlike other biomass crops such as corn it can be cultivated on the millions of hectares of marginal agricultural lands, improving site conditions, soil quality and landscape diversity. A clear advantage of willow biomass compared to other renewables is that it is a stock resource whereas wind and PV are intermittent. With only 6 percent of the current U.S. energy consumption met by renewable sources the accelerated development of willow biomass and other renewable energy sources is critical to address concerns of energy security and environmental impacts associated with fossil fuels.     

Energy budget of the biosphere and civilization: Rethinking environmental security of global renewable and non-renewable resources

How much and what kind of energy should the civilization consume, if one aims at preserving global stability of the environment and climate? Here we quantify and compare the major types of energy fluxes in the biosphere and civilization.It is shown that the environmental impact of the civilization consists, in terms of energy, of two major components: the power of direct energy consumption (around 15 × 10¹² W, mostly fossil fuel burning) and the primary productivity power of global ecosystems that are disturbed by anthropogenic activities. This second, conventionally unaccounted, power component exceeds the first one by at least several times.It is commonly assumed that the environmental stability can be preserved if one manages to switch to “clean”, pollution-free energy resources, with no change in, or even increasing, the total energy consumption rate of the civilization. Such an approach ignores the fact that the environmental stability is regionally and globally controlled by the functioning of natural ecosystems on land and in the ocean. This means that the climate and environment can only remain stable if the anthropogenic pressure on natural ecosystems is diminished, which is unachievable without reducing the global rate of energy consumption. If the modern rate of anthropogenic pressure on the ecosystems is sustained, it will be impossible to mitigate the degradation of climate and environment even after changing completely to “clean” technologies (e.g., to the “zero emissions” scenario).It is shown that under the limitation of preserving environmental stability, the available renewable energy resources (river hydropower, wind power, tidal power, solar power, power of the thermohaline circulation, etc.) can in total ensure no more than one tenth of the modern energy consumption rate of the civilization, not to compromise the delivery of life-important ecosystem services by the biosphere to the humanity.With understanding still lacking globally that the anthropogenic impact on the biosphere must be strictly limited, the potential availability of the practically infinite stores of nuclear fusion energy (or any other infinite energy sources) poses an unprecedented threat to the existence of civilization and life on the planet.     

Polymers for enhanced oil recovery: fundamentals and selection criteria

With a rising population, the demand for energy has increased over the years. As per the projections, both fossil fuel and renewables will remain as major energy source (678 quadrillion BTU) till 2030 with fossil fuel contributing 78% of total energy consumption. Hence, attempts are continuously made to make fossil fuel production more sustainable and cheaper. From the past 40 years, polymer flooding has been carried out in marginal oil fields and have proved to be successful in many cases. The common expectation from polymer flooding is to obtain 50% ultimate recovery with 15 to 20% incremental recovery over secondary water flooding. Both naturally derived polymers like xanthan gum and synthetic polymers like partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM) have been used for this purpose. Earlier laboratory and field trials revealed that salinity and temperature are the major issues with the synthetic polymers that lead to polymer degradation and adsorption on the rock surface. Microbial degradation and concentration are major issues with naturally derived polymers leading to loss of viscosity and pore throat plugging. Earlier studies also revealed that polymer flooding is successful in the fields where oil viscosity is quite higher (up to 126 cp) than injection water due to improvement in mobility ratio during polymer flooding. The largest successful polymer flood was reported in China in 1990 where both synthetic and naturally derived polymers were used in nearly 20 projects. The implementation of these projects provides valuable suggestions for further improving the available processes in future. This paper examines the selection criteria of polymer, field characteristics that support polymer floods and recommendation to design a large producing polymer flooding.     

Using microorganisms to brew biofuels

Interest in alternative fuel sources has grown in recent years in response to a confluence of factors, including concerns over our reliance on and increasing demand for fossil fuels as well as the deleterious environmental effects of fossil fuel extraction and utilization. The use of microbe-derived fuel alcohols is a viable alternative, as they are renewable, emit fewer greenhouse gasses, and require little augmentation of current energy infrastructure as compared to other sustainable transportation options such as electric vehicles and fuel cells. Here, we present a brief overview of candidate substrates for alcohol production with a focus on lignocellulosic sources, relevant microorganisms under research for industrialization and the biotechnological techniques used to improve alcohol production phenotypes.     

Impact assessment of abiotic resource consumption conceptual considerations

The impact assessment of the consumption of abiotic resources, such as fossil fuels or minerals, is usually part of the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) in LCA studies. The problem with the consumption of such resources is their decreasing availability for future generations. In currently available LCA methods (e.g. Eco-indicator’ 99/Goedkoop and Spriensma 1999, CML/Guinée 2001), the consumption of various abiotic resources is aggregated into one summarizing indicator within the characterization phase of the LCIA. This neglects that many resources are used for different purposes and are not equivalent to each other. Therefore, the depletion of reserves of functionally non-equivalent resources should be treated as separate environmental problems, i.e. as separate impact sub-categories. Consequently, this study proposes assigning the consumption of abiotic resources to separate impact sub-categories and, if possible, integrating them into indicators only according to their primary function (e.g. coal, natural gas, oil → consumption of fossil fuels; phosphate rock → consumption of phosphate). Since this approach has been developed in the context of LCA studies on agricultural production systems, the impact assessment of the consumption of fossil fuels, phosphate rock, potash salt and lime is of particular interest and serves as an example. Following the general LCA framework (Consoli et al. 1993, ISO 1998), a normalization step is proposed separately for each of the subcategories. Finally, specific weighting factors have been calculated for the sub-categories based on the ’distance-to-target’ principle. The weighting step allows for further interpretation and enables the aggregation of the consumption of different abiotic resources to one summarizing indicator, called the Resource Depletion Index (RDI). The proposed method has been applied to a wheat production system in order to illustrate the conceptual considerations and to compare the approach to an established impact assessment method for abiotic resources (CML method, Guinée 2001).     

Environmental assessment of urban mobility: Combining life cycle assessment with land-use and transport interaction modelling—Application to Lyon (France)

In France, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport have grown steadily since 1950 and transport is now the main source of emissions. Despite technological improvements, urban sprawl increases the environmental stress due to car use. This study evaluates urban mobility through assessments of the transport system and travel habits, by applying life cycle assessment methods to the results of mobility simulations that were produced by a Land Use and Transport Interactions (LUTI) model. The environmental impacts of four life cycle phases of urban mobility in the Lyon area (exhausts, fuel processing, infrastructure and vehicle life cycle) were estimated through nine indicators (global warming potential, particulate matter emissions, photochemical oxidant emissions, terrestrial acidification, fossil resource depletion, metal depletion, non-renewable energy use, renewable energy use and land occupancy). GHG emissions were estimated to be 3.02 kg CO₂-eq inhabitant⁻¹ day⁻¹, strongly linked to car use, and indirect impacts represented 21% of GHG emissions, which is consistent with previous studies. Combining life cycle assessment (LCA) with a LUTI model allows changes in the vehicle mix and fuel sources combined with demographic shifts to be assessed, and provides environmental perspectives for transport policy makers and urban planners. It can also provide detailed analysis, by allowing levels of emissions that are generated by different categories of households to be differentiated, according to their revenue and location. Public policies can then focus more accurately on the emitters and be assessed from both an environmental and social point of view.     

Energy flows in rural China

A quantitative analysis of major rural energy flows in the People's Republic of China shows that the nation 's countryside still depends predominantly on solar radiation transformed by green plants through photosynthesis into food, feed, fuel, and raw materials. Although a large-scale modernization effort currently under way aims to greatly increase the consumption of fossil fuels and electricity, it is argued that the country should not completely abandon its renewable rural energetics.     

The linkages between deforestation,energy and growth for environmental degradation in Pakistan

This study explores the validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for Pakistan using time series data from 1980–2013 with deforestation as an indicator (dependent variable) for environmental degradation, and four independent variables (economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, and population) were also examined. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the VECM–Granger causality test were applied. The results confirmed the existence of cointegration among the variables both in long- and short-run paths. However, the diminishing negative impact of economic growth on deforestation in the long-run confirms the EKC hypothesis for deforestation in Pakistan. Moreover, economic growth and energy consumption Granger cause deforestation. A bidirectional causal effect is detected between economic growth and energy consumption, however, in the long-run, economic growth and trade openness Granger cause energy consumption. This study was designed with several significant tests to ensure the reliability of results for policy use and to contribute to future studies on the environment-growth-energy nexus.     

Variation of energy flow and greenhouse gas emissions in vineyards located in Natura 2000 sites

A combination of agro-environmental indicators and energy analysis of a production system, such as vineyards located in Natura 2000 sites, for which little is known, may be a useful tool to decide best farm management practices with low greenhouse gas emissions. In randomly selected vineyards at six sites of Natura 2000 network in Cyprus, we evaluated the energy flow and the greenhouse gas emissions. Hierarchical cluster analysis using production coefficients and a topographic variable (altitude) was used to detect clusters of the studied vineyards. Three groups were revealed. Group 1 (eight vineyards) with the lowest energy inputs, followed by Group 2 (three vineyards) with intermediate inputs and Group 3 (three vineyards) with the highest energy inputs. Altitude, fertilizers, labour, fuel and transportation had the greatest contribution on cluster formation. Non-parametric comparisons concerning 28 indicators showed that ten indicators (total energy inputs, renewable and non-renewable energy inputs, fruit energy outputs, shoot energy outputs, total energy outputs, fruit production, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) were significantly higher in high energy input vineyards (Group 3) and three (energy use for renewable inputs, energy productivity and energy fruit efficiency) in low energy input vineyards (Group 1). Five indicators (energy use for fuel, transportation and non-renewable inputs, and energy efficiency for (shoot + fruit) outputs and renewable energy inputs) were significantly lower in Group 3 and two (intensity and non-renewable energy consumption) in Group 1. Similarities and/or dissimilarities among vineyards in Natura 2000 sites were related to altitude, production coefficients and local farming practices. These mixed results stress the importance of taking both local management indicators and vineyard topography into consideration when developing future agri-environment schemes, and suggest that local–regional interactions may affect Natura 2000 sites services and functions. It is important that EU agricultural policies are complemented by national–regional interventions in order to regulate the fragile balance between Natura 2000 sites and agriculture, reducing non-renewable energy inputs as percent of total energy inputs.     

Energy production from biomass (Part 2): Conversion technologies

The use of biomass to provide energy has been fundamental to the development of civilisation. In recent times pressures on the global environment have led to calls for an increased use of renewable energy sources, in lieu of fossil fuels. Biomass is one potential source of renewable energy and the conversion of plant material into a suitable form of energy, usually electricity or as a fuel for an internal combustion engine, can be achieved using a number of different routes, each with specific pros and cons. A brief review of the main conversion processes is presented, with specific regard to the production of a fuel suitable for spark ignition gas engines.     

Trading Off Global Fuel Supply,CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development

The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO₂ emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO₂ emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO₂ neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals.     

农户薪柴消费的理论模型及实证研究

农户薪柴消费变化对室内空气质量、农村生态环境建设影响重大,论文构建了山区农户薪柴消费的理论模型,以重庆市典型区1015份农户调查数据为例,运用Tobit模型分析了农户人均薪柴消费量的影响因素。研究表明:农户家庭能源消费中,商品能源和新能源的比重逐步增大,但薪柴依旧是农户普遍使用的能源类型,且消费量占总能源消费量的比重高;通过降低农业劳动力比重和提高非农工资水平两种途径,非农就业能显著降低农户人均薪柴消费量;家庭电器数量增多、其他收入(政府补贴、亲戚帮扶等)增加、及替代能源(液化气、沼气、煤炭等)可获得性增强也能显著降低农户人均薪柴消费量,而户主年龄大、人均牲畜数量多及房屋离集市距离远的农户家庭的人均薪柴消费量高。提出了加快薪柴替代的措施。