Premarital fertility in Namibia: trends, factors and consequences

Premarital fertility, defined as fertility before first marriage, was found to be highly prevalent in Namibia. According to data from the 1992 and 2000 DHS surveys, the proportion of premarital births was 43% for all births, and 60% for the first birth. This seemed to be primarily due to a late mean age at first marriage (26.4 years) and low levels of contraception before first marriage. Data were analysed using a variety of demographic methods, including multiple decrement life table and multivariate logistic models. Major variations were found by ethno-linguistic groups: Herero and Nama/Damara had the highest levels of premarital fertility (above 60%); Ovambo and Lozi had intermediate levels of premarital fertility (around 40%); Kavongo and San appeared to have kept a more traditional behaviour of early marriage and low levels of premarital fertility (around 20%). The largest ethno-linguistic group, the Ovambo, were in a special situation, with fast increasing age at marriage and average level of premarital fertility. Whites and mixed races also differed, with Afrikaans-speaking groups having a behaviour closer to the average, whereas other Europeans had less premarital fertility despite an average age at marriage. Ethnic differences remained stable after controlling for various socioeconomic factors, such as urbanization, level of education, wealth, access to mass media, and religion. Results are discussed in light of the population dynamics and political history of Namibia in the 20th century.     

Marital coitus across the life course

It remains unclear whether the frequency of marital coitus does in fact decline universally across the life course, what shape that decay normally takes, and what best accounts for it: increasing marriage duration, women's age or age of their partners. Using cross-sectional Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 91,744 non-abstaining women in their first marriage, a generalized linear model is used to determine if there is a consistent pattern in the life course pattern of degradation in the frequency of marital coitus. Datasets were drawn from nineteen countries in Asia, Africa and the Americas. Use of very large samples allows proper disentangling of the effects of women's age, husband's age and marital duration, and use of samples from multiple countries allows consideration of the influence of varied prevailing fertility regimes and fertility-related practices on life course trajectories. It is found that declining coital frequency over time seems a shared demographic feature of human populations, but whether marriage duration, wife's age or husband's age is most responsible for that decline varies by country. In many cases, coital frequency actually increases with women's age into their thirties, once husband's age and marriage duration are taken into account, but in most cases coital frequency declines with husband's age and marital duration.     

Kin influences on fertility in Thailand: Effects and mechanisms

It has been suggested that human mothers are cooperative breeders, as they need help from others to successfully raise offspring. Studies working under this framework have found correlations between the presence of kin and both child survival and female fertility rates. This study seeks to understand the proximate mechanisms by which kin influence fertility using data from the 1987 Thailand Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), a nationally representative sample of 6775 women. Kin influence is measured by the length of time couples live with the husband's or wife's parents after marriage. Event history analysis, multilevel modeling and structural equation modeling are used to investigate both fertility outcomes and potential pathways through which postnuptial residence may influence fertility outcomes, including employment status, maternal and child outcomes, contraceptive use, breastfeeding duration, and age at marriage. We show that living virilocally (with husband's kin after marriage) increases total fertility by shortening time from marriage to first birth, and increasing the likelihood of progression to each subsequent birth. These effects are mediated through correlations between virilocal residence and earlier age at marriage as well as delayed initiation of contraceptive use. We find no influence of husband's kin on maternal or child outcomes. Living uxorilocally (with wife's kin after marriage) also reduces age at marriage, shortens time from marriage to first birth and (marginally) improves child survivorship, but has no effect on other child and maternal outcomes or progression to subsequent births and results in a similar number of living children as women living neolocally.     

Evolution of birth intervals in a french rural population (1840–1950)

This study presents the first results concerning the evolution of the birth intervals since 1840 among a rural population of the centre of France, where birth control appeared as far back as the end of the 18th Century. We observe the absence of variation of the average interval between successive briths in relation to the period of marriage, family size and socio-economic status of spouses. This confirms that child spacing does not play a part in the constitution of family. The average intervals between marriage and first birth are associated with most of the variables, essentially due to the marrying age and to a lesser extent to the family size. This rural population, in spite of a modern profile by the widespread practice of birth control, still presents traditional attitudes in the structure of its fertility as is indicated by the absence of birth spreading and the important part which seems to be played by the marriage age of women.     

Premarital childbearing in northwest Kenya: challenging the concept of illegitimacy

A number of African countries, including Kenya, have experienced a marked rise in births among unmarried women. In Western countries, reproduction outside of marriage is assumed to be illegitimate and a social problem. One hypothesis used to explain the increasing incidence of premarital fertility in Africa is a breakdown of traditional social controls by the extended family over the sexual behavior of adolescents. A competing hypothesis suggests that unmarried women use sexual relations to achieve goals such as marriage. Among Turkana pastoralists of northwest Kenya, we find a pattern of premarital birth that fits either hypothesis only loosely. Premarital fertility among the Turkana is both widespread and culturally acceptable, with over 30 per cent of women having at least one child prior to marriage. Although women with premarital births initiate childbearing on average one year earlier than women with only marital births, women's marital status does not influence the length of the interval between first and second births. Marriage among the Turkana is not a social trigger for the onset and continuation of reproduction or a means to legitimate reproduction. Marital status of the parents simply determines the custody of a child. In a premarital birth, the father pays a set fee to the mother's family, and the custody of the child remains permanently with the mother's family. If the parents later marry, the father must purchase custody of the child by another fee at that time. Since the Turkana have experienced few effects of modernization, the existence of such a practice suggests that cultural factors must be taken into account before assessing premarital fertility in Africa as a social problem.     

A DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ALTERED THE STRENGTH OF SELECTION FOR FITNESS AND AGE‐SPECIFIC SURVIVAL AND FERTILITY IN A 19TH CENTURY AMERICAN POPULATION

Modernization has increased longevity and decreased fertility in many human populations, but it is not well understood how or to what extent these demographic transitions have altered patterns of natural selection. I integrate individual‐based multivariate phenotypic selection approaches with evolutionary demographic methods to demonstrate how a demographic transition in 19th century female populations of Utah altered relationships between fitness and age‐specific survival and fertility. Coincident with this demographic transition, natural selection for fitness, as measured by the opportunity for selection, increased by 13% to 20% over 65 years. Proportional contributions of age‐specific survival to total selection (the complement to age‐specific fertility) diminished from approximately one third to one seventh following a marked increase in infant survival. Despite dramatic reductions in age‐specific fertility variance at all ages, the absolute magnitude of selection for fitness explained by age‐specific fertility increased by approximately 45%. I show that increases in the adaptive potential of fertility traits followed directly from decreased population growth rates. These results suggest that this demographic transition has increased the adaptive potential of the Utah population, intensified selection for reproductive traits, and de‐emphasized selection for survival‐related traits.     

Divorce in Ethiopia: the impact of early marriage and childlessness

Forty-five per cent of first marriages in Ethiopia end in divorce within 30 years, and two-thirds of women who divorce do so within the first 5 years of marriage. This paper looks at two factors that may have an impact on the risk of divorce in Ethiopia: early age of first marriage, and childlessness within the first marriage. Data used were from the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey conducted by the Government of Ethiopia. A total of 8757 women of reproductive age (15-49) were analysed. Life table analysis was used to determine the median age at first marriage, first birth and the median duration of marriage. Cox models were analysed to determine the differentials of divorce. The results of this analysis showed that both early age at marriage and childlessness have a significant impact on the risk of divorce. An inverse relationship was found between age at marriage and risk of divorce. Having a child within the first marriage also significantly reduced the risk of divorce. In addition, several cultural and socioeconomic variables were significant predictors of divorce.     

A Cultural–Historical Perspective on the Depressed Fertility Among the Matrilineal Moso in Southwest China

Family systems exert substantial influence on the demographic processes of populations. The Moso in Southwest China feature an institutionalized visiting sexual system, which differs from marriage, and a grand household system without conjugal units. Moso women enjoy virtually unlimited reproductive autonomy. On the basis of surveys of 127 Moso households conducted in 1988 and 1989, this paper analyzes the fertility experience of Moso women during the twentieth century and the mortality rates of the Moso population in the PRC era. Moso fertility patterns are characterized by a late age at first birth (median 23 years), long interbirth intervals (median 3 years), and a high rate of childlessness (16%). We conclude that this pattern of low fertility is an outcome of the unique Moso cultural practices. For the cohorts of Moso women born between 1905 and 1929, pathological sterility caused by STD is likely to have depressed fertility as well.     

Fertility of the Tibetans migrated to Northen India

This paper aims to study the fertility rate of the migrant Tibetans residing in Northern India and finding out the factors which are affecting the fertility level among them. Data are reported on age at menarche, age at marriage, first childbirth, use of contraception, widowhood, migration and on various fertility measures in the Tibetan of Northern India living at low and moderate altitude (600–2000 m), who have migrated from high altitude (4000 m above sea level) in Tibet. The migrant Tibetans reported a relatively lower fertility as compared to the high and moderate altitude populations. This lower fertility is mostly attributable to the use of contraception, the later mean age at marriage and first childbirth, and relatively high proportion of widows in the migrant Tibetans. However, the social as well as biological changes in population during migration should not be overlooked, which have a sufficient impact on fertility.     

Impact of community-orientated psychiatry on marriage and fertility of psychotic women

A large representative sample of psychotic women of reproductive age was selected from patients admitted to a London mental hospital during 1955–63 and followed up during the years of developing community care. Before first admission the probability of marriage of schizophrenics was three-quarters of that of corresponding normal women, and after admission it was just over one-third of normal. Fertility of schizophrenics was slightly reduced both before and after illness, and much of this reduction remains due to their being in hospital. The probability of marriage and fertility of women suffering from severe affective disorders was very similar to that found in the corresponding general population. Despite a lessening of differentials between patients and normal women since the impact of community care the probability of marriage of schizophrenics with abnormal personalities is still significantly reduced.     

Human skeletal remains from the cave of Hearths,Makapansgat, Northern Transvaal

A detailed study has been made of the oldest South African Upper Pleistocene hominid remains found in Acheulian context in a well-stratified sealed cave deposit, the Cave of Hearths, Makapansgat, Northern Transvaal. Possibly 55,000 years of age, the remains comprise a juvenile right mandibular body with teeth, and part of a right radius. The mandible is highly robust, markedly prognathous, has a slight to moderate bony chin, an appreciable planum alveolare, a low supraspinous foramen, large alveolar part with big tooth roots, parallel upper and lower borders, a superior transverse torus and poorly developed genial apophysis. The teeth are fairly large, narrow and elongate; M₂ is smaller than M₁; both molars have a +5 cusp pattern, and the first molar shows moderate taurodontism. There is good evidence that the jaw shows congenital lack of M₃: after the Chinese Lantian jaw, this is the second oldest hominid mandible and the first African fossil man with this feature. The radius has a relatively large head atop a disproportionately narrow neck; marked angulation of neck on shaft; and a strongly developed bicipital tubercle. The remains show a cluster of features which ally them with African Neandertaloids and earlier hominids of N.W. Africa. These geographically widespread African remains may represent a transitional population between H. erectus and H. sapiens neanderthalensis. This population has been called by Campbell, this author and others H. sapiens rhodesiensis (after the first-discovered specimen from Broken Hill): to this taxon the Cave of Hearths bones are tentatively assigned.     

Coitus, the proximate determinant of conception: inter-country variance in sub-Saharan Africa

There is a general consensus in the literature that fertility differences between populations can be accounted for by differences in just four key proximate determinants: nuptiality, the postpartum non-susceptible period, contraception and abortion. Natural fecundibility is generally assumed to be constant between populations. This paper puts the theoretical and empirical case for a re-evaluation of that assumption, drawing on the under-utilized data on sexual activity collected in the Demographic Health Surveys (DHSs). Using data for married women in nine African countries, the analysis finds substantial population level differences in mean monthly coital frequency, which, if accurate, suggest an important demographic effect. There is a clear regional patterning to these differences, with levels of activity considerably lower among women in the West African populations included in the study than those from East and southern Africa. For West Africa in particular the data indicate the normality of exceptionally long periods of very infrequent or no intercourse by married women outside the period of postpartum abstinence. The findings challenge prevailing presumptions concerning susceptibility to pregnancy in marriage on which statistics for unmet need for family planning are derived. While doubts are raised over the precision of the sexual activity data used, the paper argues for the need for a greater effort to operationalize the 'proximate determinant of conception', not only for more accurate fertility modelling, but also as a planning tool for a more sensitive provision of family planning services in Africa.     

Biological and behavioral determinants of fertility in Tierra del Fuego

The reproductive history of 182 women in postreproductive life or near menopause from the Chilean part of Tierra del Fuego was traced back by means of familial interviews. These postmenopausal women represent the population since almost the beginning of the settlement, and their reproductive years were spent on the island. Path analysis was applied to analyze fertility determinants of these women and to propose a complex model of interconnections among factors. The reproductive history of these women is characterized by a long fertile span, a short childbearing period, and low fertility. Age at menarche is relatively late, and the age of the women at first birth is mainly determined by their late age at marriage. The use of contraception is related to both spacing and stopping behaviors. The late age of women at marriage, the rhythm of conception, and practices of contraception are proposed as the main determinants of fertility in Tierra del Fuego.     

Reproductive life of some Gujar women of Punjab

Data was collected on current age, age at menarche, marriage age, maternal age at 1st birth, age at the birth of last child, age at menopause, total number of conceptions, live births, stillbirths, abortions, dead children and living children for a sample of 150 Gunjar women of Punjab, India, during September and October 1977 to study their reproductive life. The women ranged in age from 45-55 years. The mean age at menarche was 14.90 years for the sample. The median age at menopause was 46.20 years. The mean age at marriage of the present sample was 12.56+-2.50 years; the mean age of the mother at the birth of her 1st child was 16.85 years; and the mean age at the birth of the last child was 38.68 years. The average number of conceptions was 7.2; the average number of live births of these 150 women was 6.90. The fertility of this population was natural as they were not using any family planning method.     

Fertility Changes in Rural Moroccan Berbers during the 20th Century

Morocco’s fertility pattern evolved in the 20th century from a traditional model close to ‘natural fertility’ to a modern pattern incorporating contraception. The very high fertility rate of nearly 7 offspring per woman observed in the 1960s was still at a level of 5.5 offspring per woman in the early 1980s. The total fertility rate subsequently declined to 2.5 by 2003. This decline was apparently, principally, the result of two factors in the urban context: the relative increase in women’s age at marriage and the use of contraception to regulate and to close reproduction. This research studied a group of Berber agriculturists in the region of Marrakech to better understand the extension and modalities of fertility changes in a rural environment. Though delayed, the changes observed in rural Berbers paralleled the general trends seen at the national level. As in the urban environment, the changes affecting reproductive patterns resulted from an increase in the age at marriage of women and the introduction of contraception. However, these changes were apparently minor adaptations to the traditional pattern, in that the progressive increase in mean age at marriage was obtained by the decrease in the frequency of pre-nubile unions (<15 years old) and not from the upward shift of the modal age. On the other hand, contraception apparently was employed to stop childbearing after the expected family size was already attained.     

Human Ovarian Reserve from Conception to the Menopause

The human ovary contains a fixed number of non-growing follicles (NGFs) established before birth that decline with increasing age culminating in the menopause at 50–51 years. The objective of this study is to model the age-related population of NGFs in the human ovary from conception to menopause. Data were taken from eight separate quantitative histological studies (n = 325) in which NGF populations at known ages from seven weeks post conception to 51 years (median 32 years) were calculated. The data set was fitted to 20 peak function models, with the results ranked by obtained correlation coefficient. The highest ranked model was chosen. Our model matches the log-adjusted NGF population from conception to menopause to a five-parameter asymmetric double Gaussian cumulative (ADC) curve ( = 0.81). When restricted to ages up to 25 years, the ADC curve has  = 0.95. We estimate that for 95% of women by the age of 30 years only 12% of their maximum pre-birth NGF population is present and by the age of 40 years only 3% remains. Furthermore, we found that the rate of NGF recruitment towards maturation for most women increases from birth until approximately age 14 years then decreases towards the menopause. To our knowledge, this is the first model of ovarian reserve from conception to menopause. This model allows us to estimate the number of NGFs present in the ovary at any given age, suggests that 81% of the variance in NGF populations is due to age alone, and shows for the first time, to our knowledge, that the rate of NGF recruitment increases from birth to age 14 years then declines with age until menopause. An increased understanding of the dynamics of human ovarian reserve will provide a more scientific basis for fertility counselling for both healthy women and those who have survived gonadotoxic cancer treatments.     

The impact of labor-saving technology on first birth intervals in rural Ethiopia

Across the developing world labor-saving technologies introduce considerable savings in the time and energy that women allocate to work. Hormonal studies on natural fertility populations indicate that such a reduction in energetic expenditure (rather than improved nutritional status alone) can lead to increased ovarian function. Other qualitative studies have highlighted a link between labor-saving technology and behavioral changes affecting subsequent age at marriage, which may affect fertility. This biodemographic study was designed to investigate whether these physiological and behavioral changes affect fertility at a population level by focusing on a recent water development scheme in Southern Ethiopia. The demographic consequences of a reduction in women's workload following the installation of water points, specifically the variation in length of first birth interval (time lapsed between marriage and first birth), are investigated. First birth interval length is closely associated with lifetime fertility in populations that do not practice contraception, longer intervals being associated with lower fertility. Using life tables and multivariate hazard modeling techniques a number of significant predictors of first birth interval length are identified. Covariates such as age at marriage, season of marriage, village ecology, and access to improved water supply have significant effects on variation in first birth intervals. When entered into models as a time-varying covariate, access to a water tap stand is associated with an immediate reduction in length of first birth intervals.     

Population genetics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) and the implications for management using biocontrol

The African sugarcane stalk borer, Eldona saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), is widely distributed throughout sub-Saharan Africa and is an important insect pest of maize and sugarcane. The insect shows significant variation in behaviour, host plant and natural enemy guild in different regions. Several attempts to redistribute the natural enemies of E. saccharina from West Africa to South Africa were unsuccessful. The significant behavioural, host plant and natural enemy variations as well as failures of biocontrol attempts evoked a hypothesis of genetic diversification. To evaluate this hypothesis a molecular analysis was conducted on geographically isolated populations of E. saccharina from East, North, South and West Africa, using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) region of the mitochondrial genome. The results revealed that E. saccharina populations are separated into four major units corresponding to the West Africa, Rift Valley, South/East Africa and southern African populations. Mitochondrial DNA divergence among the four populations ranged from 1% to 4.98%. To examine the impact of the observed genetic variation on the fertility of inter-population crosses, a mating experiment was conducted between the Rift valley and South African population to produce an F1 generation, and these were backcrossed with the South African parent population. Fertility of eggs produced by the F1/parent population cross was significantly reduced when compared to fertility of the "true" South African line, and the F1/F1 cross. The contributions of the observed genetic differences and inter population incompatibility for the failure of previous biocontrol attempts are discussed and recommendations on future biocontrol practices are given.     

"Of sheep and men": earliest direct evidence of caprine domestication in southern Africa at leopard cave (Erongo, Namibia)

The origins of herding practices in southern Africa remain controversial. The first appearance of domesticated caprines in the subcontinent is thought to be c. 2000 years BP; however, the origin of this cultural development is still widely debated. Recent genetic analyses support the long-standing hypothesis of herder migration from the north, while other researchers have argued for a cultural diffusion hypothesis where the spread of herding practices took place without necessarily implicating simultaneous and large population movements. Here we document the Later Stone Age (LSA) site of Leopard Cave (Erongo, Namibia), which contains confirmed caprine remains, from which we infer that domesticates were present in the southern African region as early as the end of the first millennium BC. These remains predate the first evidence of domesticates previously recorded for the subcontinent. This discovery sheds new light on the emergence of herding practices in southern Africa, and also on the possible southward routes used by caprines along the western Atlantic coast.     

The force of selection on the human life cycle

In this article, I present evidence for a robust and quite general force of selection on the human life cycle. The force of selection acts in remarkably invariant ways on human life histories, despite a great abundance of demographic diversity. Human life histories are highly structured, with mortality and fertility changing substantially through the life cycle. This structure necessitates the use of structured population models to understand human life history evolution. Using such structured models, I find that the vital rates to which fitness is most sensitive are prereproductive survival probabilities, particularly the survival of children ages 0 to 4 years. The fact that the preponderance of selection falls on transitions related to recruitment combined with the late age at first reproduction characteristic of the human life cycle creates a fitness bottleneck out of recruitment. Because of this, antagonistic pleiotropy with any trait that detracts from the constituent transitions to recruitment is expected. I explore the predictors of variation in the force of selection on early survival. High fertility increases the selective premium placed on early survivorship, whereas high life expectancy at birth decreases it.